| 1. |
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Bigsten, Arne, 1947, et al.
(författare)
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Globalisation and Structural Adjustment in Africa
- 2004
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Ingår i: Globalization and the Southern African Economies. - Uppsala : Nordiska Afrikainstitutet/The Nordic Africa Institute. - 9171065326 ; , s. 36-58
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 4. |
- Bigsten, Arne, 1947, et al.
(författare)
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Is Globalisation Good for Africa?
- 2002
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Globalisation or market integration in Sub-Saharan Africa is closely linked to the structural adjustment programmes. In this paper we focus on their dependence on politics and institutional characteristics of the countries concerned. In particular, we argue that one important explanation for the dismal performance of many African countries, in spite of all the measures taken towards market liberalisation, is a lack of willingness or ability on the part of the politicians to respect the restrictions imposed on their behaviour and policy choices by the liberalised markets. The point we make in this paper is that market integration magnifies the effects of policies. We look specifically at the increased exposure to international prices and returns on assets make the economic equilibrium relations, the law of one price (LOP) and uncovered interest parity (UIP), relevant guidelines for economic policy. We illustrate the arguments by presenting the case of Zimbabwe. It is a good example where the lack of respect for the restrictions imposed by international markets has led to an economic crisis with negative growth rates and a process away from globalisation.
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| 5. |
- Bigsten, Arne, 1947, et al.
(författare)
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Kenya´s Development Path and Factor Prices 1964-2000
- 2004
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This study analyses how changes in factor abundance and trade policy have affected factor prices in Kenya since 1964. First there was a period of capital deepening, but this was reversed from 1982. As a result, there has been a shift of production towards the labour-intensive informal sector. The econometric analysis shows that in the long run factor proportions determined relative factor returns; for instance, an increase in the capital-labour ratio raised the wage-capital rental ratio. We did not find any significant impact of changes in goods prices, due to among other things changes in trade policy, on factor returns.
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| 6. |
- Bigsten, Arne, 1947, et al.
(författare)
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Offshoring and Occupational Wages: Some empirical evidence
- 2008
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Offshoring has changed the pattern of international competition; labor in specific occupations rather than whole firms and sectors are now facing competition. Accordingly, wages in offshorable occupations are affected in new ways. In this paper we investigate the effects of offshoring of electronically traded services on relative occupational wages in 13 countries in the 1990-2003 period. Our findings show that increased exports of IT-related services lead to higher relative wages in offshorable occupations, whereas increased imports of such service reduce them. There is also some evidence that the impact of offshoring on relative wages is larger the lower the level GDP per capita.
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| 7. |
- Bigsten, Arne, 1947, et al.
(författare)
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Offshoring and Occupational Wages: Some empirical evidence
- 2012
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Ingår i: Journal of International Trade and Economic Development. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0963-8199 .- 1469-9559. ; 21:2, s. 253-269
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Offshoring has changed the pattern of international competition; labor in specific occupations rather than whole firms and sectors are now facing competition. Accordingly, wages in offshorable occupations are affected in new ways. In this article, we investigate the effects of offshoring on relative occupational wages in 13 countries for 1990–2003. Our findings show that offshoring competiveness is associated with higher relative wages in offshorable occupations, and that export growth of IT-related services leads to higher relative wages in offshorable occupations, whereas import growth of such services reduces them.
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
- Bigsten, Arne, 1947, et al.
(författare)
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Trade Reform and Wage Inequality in Kenya, 1964 - 2000
- 2004
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This paper analyses the evolution of wage inequality in Kenya between 1964 and 2000. Our measure of wage inequality is the ratio of wages in manufacturing to wages in agriculture, which can be seen as an indicator of sectoral wage-inequality or as a proxy for skilled to unskilled wages. We find that changes in relative wages have primarily been driven by the degree of openness, while other factors such as the capital-labour ratio, educational attainment, relative labour-productivity, and the ratio between agricultural and manufacturing prices had no significant effect. We conclude that international market integration has reduced wage-inequality in Kenya.
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| 10. |
- Bjurek, Hans, 1957, et al.
(författare)
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Does Market Liberalization Increase Total Factor Productivity: Evidence from the Manufacturing Sector in Zimbabwe
- 1998
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In this paper we analyze if the structural adjustment program (ESAP), implemented during 1991-1995, contributed to an increase in total factor productivity in the manufacturing sector. To evaluate if productivity has grown we first estimate indexes of total factor productivity for 31 manufacturing sub-sectors for the period 1980-1995. Then we use panel data methods to test for the effects of trade reform and other variables related to ESAP. In general the growth rates vary greatly both over time and across sections. The overall impression is that there was no growth in total factor productivity on average during the whole period of ESAP. However, during the last two years, 1994-1995, most sub-sectors experienced increases in total factor productivity.
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| 11. |
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| 12. |
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| 13. |
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| 14. |
- Durevall, Dick, 1954, et al.
(författare)
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A Dynamic Model of Inflation for Kenya 1974 - 1996
- 1998
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This paper develops an error correction model with the aim of analysing the behaviour of prices in Kenya during 1974 -1996. In estimating the model, we first test for cointegration in the money and foreign exchange markets, using the Johansen procedure. The cointegrating vectors are then included in an autoregressive distributed-lag model, and a general-to-specific procedure is applied to obtain a parsimonious, empirically constant, error correction model. We find that in the long run inflation emanates from movements in the exchange rate, foreign prices, and terms of trade. The error correction term for the monetary sector does not enter the model, but money supply and the interest rate influence inflation in the short run. Inflation inertia is found to be an important determinant of inflation up until 1993, when about 400f the current inflation is carried over to the next quarter. After 1993, inertia drops to about 10%. The dynamics of inflation are also influenced by food supply constraints, proxied by maize-price inflation. These findings indicate that the exchange rate is likely to be a more efficient nominal anchor than money supply, and that inflation could be made more stable by policies that secure the supply of maize during droughts.
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| 15. |
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| 16. |
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| 17. |
- Durevall, Dick, 1954, et al.
(författare)
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Adult Mortality, AIDS and Fertility in Rural Malawi
- 2013
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The impact of HIV/AIDS on fertility in sub-Saharan Africa has received attention recently, since changes in population structure can impact on future economic development. We analyze the effect of AIDS on actual and desired fertility in rural Malawi, using data from Malawi 2004 Demographic and Health Survey and population censuses. Since AIDS was the dominating cause of death during the 1990s and early 2000s, we use prime-age adult mortality as the key explanatory variable. The focus is on heterogeneity in the response of gender-specific mortality rates. By estimating ordered probit models we show that actual fertility responds positively to male mortality but negatively to female mortality, and that the overall fertility response is positive but small. One interpretation of the findings is that the effects of female and male mortality differ because of an old-age security motive for having children. When a woman risks death before her children grow up, she is less likely to need support of children and demand should be low, but when the risk of husband’s death is high, the woman should expect to rely more on children’s support.
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| 18. |
- Durevall, Dick, 1954, et al.
(författare)
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Adult Mortality, AIDS, and Fertility in Rural Malawi
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Developing Economies. - : Wiley. - 0012-1533 .- 1746-1049. ; 54:3, s. 215-242
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The future course of fertility is a major determinant of economic development in many sub-Saharan countries, so understanding how HIV/AIDS affects childbearing is of great interest. We show that fertility responds negatively to female mortality and positively to male mortality and that the overall fertility response is small. The negative effect of female mortality is in line with earlier studies that only focus on women and their infection and mortality risks, while the finding of a positive effect of adult-male mortality is novel. One interpretation of this finding is that women who perceive a high risk of their husbands’ or grown-up sons’ deaths are likely to want to have more children to ensure future support.
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| 19. |
- Durevall, Dick, 1954, et al.
(författare)
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Aid and child health: A disaggregated analysis of the effects of aid on impaired growth
- 2024
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Ingår i: World Development. - 0305-750X .- 1873-5991. ; 182
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Motivated by a recent setback in the fight against child malnutrition, this study explores whether aid projects help reduce stunting or impaired growth among children close to project sites. Focusing on Malawi, a country with a very high stunting prevalence for which we have access to geo-referenced data on aid projects from a broad range of donors, we geographically match spatial data on 778 aid project sites of 22 different donors with anthropometric and background data on 26,604 children under the age of five. The detailed data allows for a disaggregated analysis comparing local aid impacts by types of aid, donor- and recipient groups. To identify the effect of aid, we rely on spatial and temporal variation in aid project coverage and survey rollout, coupled with variation in the child's age at aid exposure. The empirical results consistently indicate a positive impact of early-life aid exposure on child growth. The positive treatment effect is seemingly driven primarily by multilateral aid and is stronger in rural areas. On the other hand, we observe little heterogeneity by aid type and across socio-economic recipient groups, signaling that the treatment effect stems from improvements across the board in aid receiving areas rather than by interventions targeting the most vulnerable groups. In terms of mechanisms, the results of the mediation analysis underscore the influence of distal determinants of stunting, such as the improved economic conditions of households, which are likely to impact more proximal determinants downstream.
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| 20. |
- Durevall, Dick, 1954, et al.
(författare)
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Aid and child health: Local effects of aid on stunting in Malawi
- 2022
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Motivated by a recent setback in the fight against child malnutrition, this study explores whether aid projects help to reduce stunting, or impaired growth, among children in the local area. Focusing on Malawi, a country with very high stunting prevalence and for which we have access to geo-referenced data on aid projects from a broad range of donors, we geographically match spatial data on 778 aid project sites of 22 different donors with anthropometric and background data on 26,604 children under the age of 5. To identify the effect of aid, we rely on spatial and temporal variation in aid project coverage and survey rollout, coupled with variation in childbirth years in relation to project start. The empirical results consistently indicate a positive impact of early life aid exposure on child growth. The positive treatment effect materializes already for children born in the early project implementation phase and lasts for children born up to 3 years after project start and is seemingly driven primarily by multilateral aid and projects focusing on rural development, vulnerability, infrastructure, and education.
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| 21. |
- Durevall, Dick, 1954
(författare)
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Are Fairtrade Prices Fair? An Analysis of the Distribution of Returns in the Swedish Coffee Market
- 2015
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Consumers pay a premium for Fair Trade coffee, often assuming that it mainly benefits poor coffee farmers. However, several studies report that most of the premium accrues to actors in the consumer countries, such as roasters and retailers. This paper analyses how the returns to Fair Trade are distributed among bean producer countries, roasters and retailers, and Fairtrade Sweden, using scanner data on 185 products from Sweden and information about costs of production. The distribution depends on how much more costly it is to produce Fair Trade coffee compared to conventional coffee, given costs of beans and licences. Assuming the difference is 5 SEK per kg (about USD 0.80), which is on the high side, roasters and retailers get 61%, while producer countries, i.e., coffee farmers, cooperatives, middlemen, exporters and Fairtrade International, get 31%. The rest accrues to Fairtrade Sweden. These estimates are uncertain, but there is there strong evidence that Fair Trade retail prices are higher than the level attributable to the costs of Fair Trade beans and licences.
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| 22. |
- Durevall, Dick, 1954, et al.
(författare)
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Associations of Social Support with Sexual Practices, Health Behaviours, and Health Outcomes Among Adolescent Girls and Young Women: Evidence From a Longitudinal Study in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
- 2023
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Ingår i: International Journal of Behavioral Medicine. - 1070-5503 .- 1532-7558. ; 31, s. 620-630
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Several studies have reported on the benefits of social support for health behaviour, including risky sex. Social support may thus be an important resource for promoting individual health and well-being, particularly in regions where HIV rates are high and healthcare resources are scarce. However, prior research on the implications of social support for the health behaviour of young women has yielded mixed and inconclusive findings. Using prospective data from young women in South Africa, this study examines the associations of social support with subsequent sexual practices, health behaviour, and health outcomes. Methods We used two rounds of longitudinal data from a sample of n=1446 HIV-negative emerging adult women, aged 18 to 29 years, who participated in a population-based HIV study in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Applying the analytic template for outcome-wide longitudinal designs, we estimated the associations between combinations of social support (i.e., tangible, educational, emotional) and ten HIV-risk related outcomes. Results Combinations of tangible, educational, and emotional support, as well as tangible support by itself, were associated with lower risk for several outcomes, whereas educational and emotional support, by themselves or together, showed little evidence of association with the outcomes. Conclusions This study highlights the protective role of tangible support in an environment of widespread poverty, and the additional effect of combining tangible support with non-tangible support. The findings strengthen recent evidence on the benefits of combining support in the form of cash and food with psychosocial care in mitigating risk behaviours associated with HIV and negative health outcomes among young women.
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| 23. |
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| 24. |
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| 25. |
- Durevall, Dick, 1954
(författare)
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Competition in the Swedish Coffee Market
- 2004
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- It is a widespread belief that multinationals are exploiting their market power in national coffee markets by keeping consumer prices too high and thereby limiting demand for coffee beans. The purpose of this study is to test if this is case in the Swedish market for roasted coffee. In the Swedish market there are a few very large roasting companies and many small ones; a market structure that is typical of many consumer markets for coffee. To analyze the degree of market power, an oligopoly model is estimated using market time series data. The econometric approach is to first test for long-run relationships between the variables with cointegration analysis, and then to estimate a system of equations for demand and pricing behavior. Our major finding is that there is no evidence of market power in the long run, and only some in the short run.
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| 26. |
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| 27. |
- Durevall, Dick, 1954
(författare)
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Cost Pass-Through in the Swedish Coffee Market
- 2017
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Cost pass-through to retail prices shows how changes in marginal costs are allocated between producers and consumers, and it is therefore closely related to market structure and competition. This paper uses Swedish data on coffee products at the barcode level to evaluate pass-through from the cost of green coffee beans, the main marginal cost, to the retail price of roasted and ground coffee. First long-run cost pass-through is estimated for each product, and then regression is used to analyse how pass-through varies across market shares, retailer-owned brands and other product characteristics. A general result is that pass-through is roughly complete for products with large market shares, while those with small market shares have low pass-through rates. There is no evidence that retailer-owned brands have higher pass-through than brand-name products with similar market shares, which would be the case if retailer-owned brands avoided double marginalization through vertical integration. Thus, although there is not perfect competition in the Swedish coffee market, a large part of it appears to be highly competitive.
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| 28. |
- Durevall, Dick, 1954
(författare)
-
Cost pass-through in the Swedish coffee market
- 2018
-
Ingår i: European Review of Agricultural Economics. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0165-1587 .- 1464-3618. ; 45:4, s. 505-529
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Cost pass-through to retail prices shows how changes in marginal costs are allocated between producers and consumers, and it is, therefore, closely related to market structure and competition. This paper uses Swedish data on coffee products at the barcode level to evaluate pass-through from the cost of green coffee beans, the main marginal cost, to the retail price of roasted and ground coffee. First long-run cost pass-through is estimated for each product, and then regression is used to analyse how pass-through varies across market shares, retailer-owned brands and other product characteristics. A general result is that pass-through is roughly complete for products with large market shares, while those with small market shares have low pass-through rates. There is no evidence that retailer-owned brands have higher pass-through than brand-name products with similar market shares, which would be the case if retailer-owned brands avoided double marginalisation through vertical integration. Thus, although there is not perfect competition in the Swedish coffee market, a large part of it appears to be highly competitive.
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| 29. |
- Durevall, Dick, 1954
(författare)
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Demand for Coffee: The Role of Prices, Preferences and Market Power
- 2005
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the role of prices in determining demand for roasted coffee in Sweden. This is of interest because many believe that consumer prices are high relative to green coffee-bean prices, and that lower consumer prices would increase demand for coffee beans. Coffee demand is estimated on data for the period 1968-2002. In the long run, changing preferences appear to determine demand for roasted coffee, and a reduction in consumer prices would only have a temporary impact on consumption. Hence a permanent decrease in consumer prices would only increase exports of coffee beans to Sweden for a couple of years.
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| 30. |
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| 31. |
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| 32. |
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| 33. |
- Durevall, Dick, 1954
(författare)
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East African Community: Pre-conditions for an Effective Monetary Union
- 2011
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda signed the Treaty for the establishment of the East African Community (EAC) in 1999, which entered into force in July 2000. In 2007 it was signed by Burundi and Rwanda. According to the Treaty, EAC should first form a customs union, then a common market and a monetary union, and finally a political union. The Customs Union was formally completed in 2010, and Common Market Protocol was signed in 2009. Currently the intention is to sign the East African Monetary Union protocol 2012, while the date for actual implementation of the common currency is uncertain. The purpose of this note is to discuss preconditions for an effective monetary union among the EAC members, with a focus on Rwanda. It first outlines potential economic benefits and costs of a monetary union, and then discusses political and institutional preconditions. It concludes that although there are potentially substantive economic net-benefits, a monetary union is a risky project for political reasons. The political will among policymakers is key to successful implementation, and it could vanish with a change of government or because of discontent among influential lobby groups. However, the process towards forming are monetary union is appears to be highly beneficial the EAC members, both directly by improving monetary policy and indirectly by contributing to economic integration.
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| 34. |
- Durevall, Dick, 1954, et al.
(författare)
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Economic Inequality and HIV in Malawi
- 2009
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- To analyze if the spread of HIV is related to economic inequality we estimate multilevel models of the individual probability of HIV infection among young Malawian women. We find a positive association between HIV infection and inequality at both the neighborhood and district levels, but no effect of individual poverty. We also find that the HIV-inequality relationship is related to risky sex, gender violence, and return migration, though no variable completely replaces economic inequality as a predictor of HIV infections. The HIV-inequality relationship does not seem to be related to bad health, gender gaps in education or women’s market work.
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| 35. |
- Durevall, Dick, 1954, et al.
(författare)
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Economic Inequality and HIV in Malawi
- 2012
-
Ingår i: World Development. - : Elsevier BV. - 0305-750X. ; 40:7, s. 1435-1451
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To analyze if the spread of HIV is related to economic inequality we estimate multilevel models of the individual probability of HIV infection among young Malawian women. We find a positive association between HIV infection and inequality at both the neighborhood and district levels, but no effect of individual poverty. We also find that the HIV inequality relationship is related to risky sex, gender violence, and return migration, though no variable completely replaces economic inequality as a predictor of HIV infections. The HIV inequality relationship does not seem to be related to bad health, gender gaps in education or women's market work. 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 36. |
- Durevall, Dick, 1954, et al.
(författare)
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Education and HIV incidence among young women: causation or selection?
- 2015
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Several studies report that schooling protects against HIV infection in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study examines the effect of secondary school attendance on the probability of HIV incidence among young women aged 15-24, using panel data from rural KwaZulu-Natal in South Africa. Three approaches are used to distinguish causation from selection: instrumentation to identify the causal effect, a fixed effects model to control for constant unobserved factors and assessments of the bias from selection on unobserved variables. Although there is a strong negative association between secondary school attendance and HIV incidence, we are not able to find support for a causal effect. Thus, there is no evidence that interventions that increase secondary school attendance in KwaZulu-Natal would mechanically reduce HIV risk for young women. Our focus on school attendance, in contrast to studies that analyze school attainment, might explain the negative finding.
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| 37. |
- Durevall, Dick, 1954, et al.
(författare)
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Education and HIV incidence among young women in KwaZulu-Natal: An association but no evidence of a causal protective effect
- 2019
-
Ingår i: PloS one. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 14:3
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We examine the relationship between school attendance and HIV incidence among young women in South Africa. Our aim is to distinguish a causal effect from correlation. Towards this end, we apply three methods to population-based longitudinal data for 2005-2012 in KwaZulu-Natal. After establishing a negative association, we first use a method that assesses the influence of omitted variables. We then estimate models with exclusion restrictions to remove endogeneity bias, and finally we estimate models that control for unobserved factors that remain constant over time. All the three methods have strengths and weaknesses, but none of them suggests a causal effect. Thus, interventions that increase school attendance in KwaZulu-Natal would probably not mechanically reduce HIV risk for young women. Although the impact of school attendance could vary depending on context, unobserved variables are likely to be an important reason for the common finding of a negative association between school attendance and HIV incidence in the literature.
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| 38. |
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| 39. |
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| 40. |
- Durevall, Dick, 1954
(författare)
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Fairtrade and Market Efficiency: Fairtrade-Labeled Coffee in the Swedish Coffee Market
- 2020
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Ingår i: Economies. - : MDPI AG. - 2227-7099. ; 8:2, s. 1-17
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Fairtrade labeling has the potential to increase market efficiency by connecting farmers to altruistic consumers who are willing to pay a premium for sustainability-certified products. A requirement for increased efficiency, though, is that the farmers’ benefits are larger than the Fairtrade processing costs and the excess payment by consumers that does not accrue to farmers; otherwise direct transfers to farmers would be more efficient. This paper analyzes how excess payment for Fairtrade-labeled coffee is distributed in the Swedish market, using information on production costs and scanner data on almost all roasted and ground coffee products sold by retailers. A key finding is that roasters and retailers get 61–70%, while producer countries, in this paper comprising coffee farmers, cooperatives, middlemen, exporters, and Fairtrade International, get 24–31%; Fairtrade Sweden gets 6–8%. These values are the upper and lower bounds that reflect assumptions made about the additional costs of producing roasted and ground Fairtrade coffee, given the cost of beans and the Fairtrade license. The Fairtrade label thus seems to create a coffee product that roasters and retailers can use to exploit their market power.
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| 41. |
- Durevall, Dick, 1954
(författare)
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Gender Policy and Intimate Partner Violence in Colombia
- 2021
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In 1995, Colombia signed the first legally binding international treaty that criminalizes all forms of violence against women. After this, the government took a number of steps to improve laws and policies, but progress was slow. This paper employs a differences-in differences approach and Demographic and Health Surveys from 2010 and 2015 to estimate the impact of a renewed effort to reduce intimate partner violence (IPV), based on recommendations by the UN. To identify the effect of the national policies, it uses the fact that while the central government passes laws and formulates policies, it partly relies on departments (provinces) to implement them. Of Colombia’s 33 departments, about a quarter had a gender policy in place by 2010. The main finding is that self-reported physical violence decreased from 20% to 16% between 2010 and 2015 in departments that had implemented IPV policies, while it stayed at 18% in the others.
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| 42. |
- Durevall, Dick, 1954
(författare)
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Gender policy and intimate partner violence in Colombia.
- 2023
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Ingår i: PloS one. - 1932-6203. ; 18:11
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In 1995, Colombia signed the first legally binding international treaty that criminalizes all forms of violence against women. Subsequently, the government took several steps to improve laws and policies, but the progress was slow. This study uses a differences-in-differences approach and Demographic and Health Survey data to estimate the impact of a renewed effort to reduce intimate partner violence (IPV), based on recommendations by the UN. To identify the effect of the national policies, it uses the fact that while the central government passes laws and formulates policies, it partly relies on departments (provinces) to implement them. Of Colombia's 32 departments and Bogota D.C., approximately a quarter had some type of gender policy in place by 2011. The main finding is that self-reported intimate partner violence decreased from 20% to 16% between 2010 and 2015 in departments that had implemented IPV policies, while it remained at 19% in the others.
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| 43. |
- Durevall, Dick, 1954, et al.
(författare)
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HIV/AIDS, Adult Mortality and Fertility: Evidence from Malawi
- 2007
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The purpose of this paper is to analyse the impact of HIV/AIDS on fertility in Malawi. The future course of fertility will have an impact on both macroeconomic variables, such as GDP per capita, and various socioeconomic factors like mother-to-child-transmission of HIV, child mortality, the number of orphans, and public expenditures on schooling. Data on both prime-age adult mortality and HIV prevalence rates at districts level are used to measure the impact of HIV/AIDS, exploiting the large geographical variation in the distribution of HIV/AIDS in Malawi. Fertility is estimated for individual women, and measured as the number of births given during the last five years. Estimations are also carried out for the desired number of children. The major finding is that HIV/AIDS reduces fertility. Uninfected women both give birth to and desire to have fewer children in districts where prime-age adult mortality and HIV-prevalence are high, and vice versa. However, for young women, aged 15-19, there is a positive relationship between fertility and prime-age adult mortality and HIV prevalence, possibly because they wish to have children while being uninfected. This is likely to have negative effects on both educational attainment and child mortality. As also shown by previous studies, HIV-infected women give birth to fewer children than uninfected women. This is probably due to changed fertility preferences, as well as to physiological factors.
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| 44. |
- Durevall, Dick, 1954, et al.
(författare)
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How Does HIV/AIDS Affect Fertility? Evidence from Malawi
- 2009
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The paper analyses how communal HIV/AIDS in rural Malawi impacts on fertility. Ordered probit models are estimated using individual data on actual fertility and the ideal number of children from the 2004 Malawi Demographic and Health Survey. The survey includes tests of HIV status, making it possible to distinguish between behavioural and physiological effects. The main indicator of communal HIV/AIDS is district prime-age mortality rates, obtained from the 1998 Population Census. The paper first address the question of the overall behavioural fertility response due to the epidemic, and then tests for differences in responses due to genderspecific district mortality and HIV rates, knowledge about mother-to-child HIV transmission, and age. The main findings are: HIV/AIDS has a negative but small impact on fertility; responses differ depending on genderspecific district mortality and HIV rates, actual fertility and women’s ideal number of children are more negatively affected by HIV/AIDS among women than among men; and a woman’s knowledge about mother-tochild transmission of HIV and age are important determinants of her fertility response to the disease.
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| 45. |
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| 46. |
- Durevall, Dick, 1954, et al.
(författare)
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Importing High Food Prices by Exporting: Rice Prices in Lao PDR
- 2014
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This paper shows how a developing country, Lao PDR, imports high glutinous rice prices by exporting its staple food to neighboring countries, Vietnam and Thailand. Lao PDR has extensive export controls on rice, generating a sizable difference between domestic and international prices. Controls are relaxed after good harvests, leading to a surge in exports early in the season and rapidly rising prices later in the year. There is thus a strong case for removal of trade restrictions since they give rise to price spikes, keep the long-term price of glutinous rice low, and thereby hinder increases in income from agriculture. Although this is a case study of Lao PDR, the findings may equally apply to other developing countries that export their staple food.
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| 47. |
- Durevall, Dick, 1954, et al.
(författare)
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Importing High Food Prices by Exporting: Rice Prices in Lao PDR
- 2017
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Ingår i: Journal of Agricultural Economics. - : Wiley. - 0021-857X .- 1477-9552. ; 68:1, s. 164-181
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Lao PDR has extensive export controls on its staple food, glutinous rice, which keep domestic prices low relative to international prices. Using price, harvest, and export data this paper analyses how glutinous rice prices in Laos PDR are related to those in its trading partners, Thailand and Vietnam. We find that rice prices in Lao PDR are more likely to rise following a good harvest year than a bad or a normal year. This is consistent with export controls being relaxed after good harvests, leading to an increase in exports early in the season and rising prices later as stocks are depleted. There is thus a case for removal of trade restrictions since they give rise to price spikes while keeping the long-term price of glutinous rice low, and thereby hinder increases in income from agriculture. However, since high rice prices are likely to affect the poor negatively in the short to medium term, a combination of an export tax and cash transfers is recommended during the transition period. Although this is a case study of Lao PDR, the findings may equally apply to other developing countries that export their staple food.
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| 48. |
- Durevall, Dick, 1954
(författare)
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Inertial Inflation, Indexation and Price Stickiness: Evidence from Brazil
- 1998
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This paper evaluates the inertial inflation hypothesis for Brazil during the 1970s and the first half of the 1980s. According to this hypothesis, (wage) indexation created a feedback mechanism such that one-time supply shocks were fully transmitted into permanent increases in inflation. First a simple theoretical model is used to show that the hypothesis is based on the assumption of perfect price flexibility. When price stickiness is introduced, indexation does not produce inertial inflation. Then, to investigate the impact of indexation on inflation, the degree of inertia (persistence) is compared between two periods, one with widespread indexation (1969-1985) and an earlier one without indexation (1945-1963). Unit root tests and the variance ratio test are used. The variance ratio test is also applied to inflation in the U.S. for the period (1969-1985) and France for (1983-1993), a period when there was no wage indexation. Finally, vector-autoregressive representations are estimated for the period 1972-1985. They differ from earlier work in that price tickiness is allowed for. The empirical results do not support the inertial inflation hypothesis; inertia does not seem to have been unusually high during the period of indexation, and impulse response analysis indicates that inflation shocks had only short-run effects on the level of inflation
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| 49. |
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| 50. |
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