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- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(författare)
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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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| 2. |
- Sumaila, U. Rashid, et al.
(författare)
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WTO must ban harmful fisheries subsidies
- 2021
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 374:6567, s. 544-544
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 5. |
- Broberg, C. S., et al.
(författare)
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Long-Term Outcomes After Atrial Switch Operation for Transposition of the Great Arteries
- 2022
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Ingår i: Journal of the American College of Cardiology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0735-1097. ; 80:10, s. 951-963
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: For patients with d-loop transposition of the great arteries (d-TGA) with a systemic right ventricle after an atrial switch operation, there is a need to identify risks for end-stage heart failure outcomes. Objectives: The authors aimed to determine factors associated with survival in a large cohort of such individuals. Methods: This multicenter, retrospective cohort study included adults with d-TGA and prior atrial switch surgery seen at a congenital heart center. Clinical data from initial and most recent visits were obtained. The composite primary outcome was death, transplantation, or mechanical circulatory support (MCS). Results: From 1,168 patients (38% female, age at first visit 29 ± 7.2 years) during a median 9.2 years of follow-up, 91 (8.8% per 10 person-years) met the outcome (66 deaths, 19 transplantations, 6 MCS). Patients experiencing sudden/arrhythmic death were younger than those dying of other causes (32.6 ± 6.4 years vs 42.4 ± 6.8 years; P < 0.001). There was a long duration between sentinel clinical events and end-stage heart failure. Age, atrial arrhythmia, pacemaker, biventricular enlargement, systolic dysfunction, and tricuspid regurgitation were all associated with the primary outcome. Independent 5-year predictors of primary outcome were prior ventricular arrhythmia, heart failure admission, complex anatomy, QRS duration >120 ms, and severe right ventricle dysfunction based on echocardiography. Conclusions: For most adults with d-TGA after atrial switch, progress to end-stage heart failure or death is slow. A simplified prediction score for 5-year adverse outcome is derived to help identify those at greatest risk.
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| 9. |
- Villablanca, A, et al.
(författare)
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Involvement of the MEN1 gene locus in familial isolated hyperparathyroidism
- 2002
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Ingår i: European journal of endocrinology. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0804-4643 .- 1479-683X. ; 147:3, s. 313-322
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Familial isolated hyperparathyroidism (FIHP) is a hereditary disorder characterised by uni- or multiglandular parathyroid disease. A subset of families are likely to be genetic variants of other familial tumour syndromes in which PHPT is the main feature, for example multiple endocrine neoplasia type 1 (MEN 1) and the hyperparathyroidism-jaw tumour syndrome (HPT-JT). OBJECTIVE: To investigate seven families diagnosed with FIHP, each with two to eight affected family members, to clarify the underlying genetic mechanism. METHODS: The entire MEN1 gene was sequenced for germline mutations and, in addition, tumour specimens were analysed in comparative genomic hybridisation and loss of heterozygosity studies. RESULTS: Two families exhibited MEN1 mutations, L112V and 1658delG, which were associated with loss of the wild-type 11q13 alleles in all tumours analysed. In the remaining five families, no MEN1 mutation was identified. CONCLUSION: These results support the involvement of the MEN1 tumour suppressor gene in the pathogenesis of some of the FIHP kindreds. However, loss on chromosome 11 was seen in all tumours exhibiting somatic deletions, although in two families the tumour deletions involved 11q distal to MEN1. We conclude that the altered MEN1 gene function is of importance in the development of FIHP.
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| 10. |
- Dwight, T, et al.
(författare)
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Genetic analysis of lithium-associated parathyroid tumors
- 2002
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Ingår i: European journal of endocrinology. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0804-4643 .- 1479-683X. ; 146:5, s. 619-627
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine the primary genetic events that may underlie the formation of parathyroid tumors in patients with lithium-associated hyperparathyroidism (HPT). METHODS: Comparative genomic hybridization (CGH), loss of heterozygosity (LOH) and multiple endocrine neoplasia type 1 gene (MEN1) mutation analysis were used to analyze twelve parathyroid tumors from nine patients with lithium-associated HPT. For comparison, CGH was also carried out in a non-lithium-associated group of thirteen sporadic parathyroid tumors. RESULTS: A higher prevalence of multiglandular disease in the lithium-associated HPT patients compared with the idiopathic sporadic patients was observed (Fisher's exact test, P=0.02). CGH alterations were detected in four lithium-associated parathyroid tumors, involving loss at 1p, 11, 15q, 22q and gain of the X chromosome. In addition, one of these four cases exhibited LOH at 11q13 and was found to contain a novel somatic MEN1 mutation (c.1193insTAC). Although fewer lithium-associated parathyroid tumors were shown to contain genetic alterations compared with the sporadic parathyroid tumors, the changes detected were those frequently associated with both familial and sporadic parathyroid tumorigenesis. CONCLUSION: This is, to our knowledge, the first genetic analysis of parathyroid tumors in lithium-associated HPT patients. Our data indicated that the majority of lithium-associated parathyroid tumors do not contain gross chromosomal alterations and suggest that in most cases the tumorigenic pathway is independent of MEN1 and genes at 1p34.3-pter and 1q21-q32. It is possible that other discrete genetic alterations or epigenetic changes, not screened for in this study, could also be responsible for parathyroid tumorigenesis in lithium-associated HPT.
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