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Sökning: WFRF:(Esper Jan)

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1.
  • Anchukaitis, Kevin, et al. (författare)
  • Last millennium Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part II, spatially resolved reconstructions
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 163, s. 1-22
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Climate field reconstructions from networks of tree-ring proxy data can be used to characterize regionalscale climate changes, reveal spatial anomaly patterns associated with atmospheric circulation changes, radiative forcing, and large-scale modes of ocean-atmosphere variability, and provide spatiotemporal targets for climate model comparison and evaluation. Here we use a multiproxy network of tree-ring chronologies to reconstruct spatially resolved warm season (MayeAugust) mean temperatures across the extratropical Northern Hemisphere (40-90N) using Point-by-Point Regression (PPR). The resulting annual maps of temperature anomalies (750e1988 CE) reveal a consistent imprint of volcanism, with 96% of reconstructed grid points experiencing colder conditions following eruptions. Solar influences are detected at the bicentennial (de Vries) frequency, although at other time scales the influence of insolation variability is weak. Approximately 90% of reconstructed grid points show warmer temperatures during the Medieval Climate Anomaly when compared to the Little Ice Age, although the magnitude varies spatially across the hemisphere. Estimates of field reconstruction skill through time and over space can guide future temporal extension and spatial expansion of the proxy network.
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2.
  • Björklund, Jesper, 1979, et al. (författare)
  • Blue intensity and density from Northern Fennoscandian tree rings, exploring the potential to improve summer temperature reconstructions with earlywood information
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 10, s. 877-885
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Here we explore two new tree-ring parameters, derived from measurements of wood density and blue intensity (BI). The new proxies show an increase in the interannual summer temperature signal compared to established proxies, and present the potential to improve long-term performance. At high latitudes, where tree growth is mainly limited by low temperatures, radiodensitometric measurements of wood density, specifically maximum latewood density (MXD), provides a temperature proxy that is superior to that of tree-ring widths. The high cost of developing MXD has led to experimentation with a less expensive method using optical flatbed scanners to produce a new proxy, herein referred to as maximum latewood blue absorption intensity (abbreviated MXBI). MXBI is shown to be very similar to MXD on annual timescales but less accurate on centennial timescales. This is due to the fact that extractives, such as resin, stain the wood differentially from tree to tree and from heartwood to sapwood. To overcome this problem, and to address similar potential problems in radiodensitometric measurements, the new parameters 1blue intensity (1BI) and 1density are designed by subtracting the ambient BI/density in the earlywood, as a background value, from the latewood measurements. As a case-study, based on Scots pine trees from Northern Sweden, we show that 1density can be used as a quality control of MXD values and that the reconstructive performance of warm-season mean temperatures is more focused towards the summer months (JJA – June, July, August), with an increase by roughly 20% when also utilising the interannual information from the earlywood. However, even though the new parameter 1BI experiences an improvement as well, there are still puzzling dissimilarities between 1density and 1BI on multicentennial timescales. As a consequence, temperature reconstructions based on 1BI will presently only be able to resolve information on decadalto- centennial timescales. The possibility of trying to calibrate BI into a measure of lignin content or density, similarly to how radiographic measurements are calibrated into density, could be a solution. If this works, only then can 1BI be used as a reliable proxy in multicentennial-scale climate reconstructions.
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3.
  • Björklund, Jesper, et al. (författare)
  • Fennoscandian tree-ring anatomy shows a warmer modern than medieval climate.
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Nature. - 1476-4687 .- 0028-0836. ; 620:7972, s. 97-103
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Earth system models and various climate proxy sources indicate global warming is unprecedented during at least the Common Era1. However, tree-ring proxies often estimate temperatures during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950-1250CE) that are similar to, or exceed, those recorded for the past century2,3, in contrast tosimulation experiments at regional scales4. This not only calls into question the reliability of models and proxies but also contributes to uncertainty in future climate projections5. Here we show that the current climate of the Fennoscandian Peninsula is substantially warmer than that of the medieval period. This highlights the dominant role of anthropogenic forcing in climate warming even at the regional scale, thereby reconciling inconsistencies between reconstructions and model simulations. We used an annually resolved 1,170-year-long tree-ring record that relies exclusively on tracheid anatomical measurements from Pinus sylvestris trees, providing high-fidelity measurements of instrumental temperature variability during the warm season. We therefore call for the construction of more such millennia-long records to further improve our understanding and reduce uncertainties around historical and future climate change at inter-regional and eventually global scales.
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6.
  • Büntgen, Ulf, et al. (författare)
  • Cooling and societal change during the Late Antique Little Ice Age from 536 to around 660 AD
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Nature Geoscience. - 1752-0894 .- 1752-0908. ; 9:3, s. 231-236
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Climatic changes during the first half of the Common Era have been suggested to play a role in societal reorganizations in Europe and Asia. In particular, the sixth century coincides with rising and falling civilizations, pandemics, human migration and political turmoil. Our understanding of the magnitude and spatial extent as well as the possible causes and concurrences of climate change during this period is, however, still limited. Here we use tree-ring chronologies from the Russian Altai and European Alps to reconstruct summer temperatures over the past two millennia. We find an unprecedented, long-lasting and spatially synchronized cooling following a cluster of large volcanic eruptions in 536, 540 and 547 AD, which was probably sustained by ocean and sea-ice feedbacks, as well as a solar minimum. We thus identify the interval from 536 to about 660 AD as the Late Antique Little Ice Age. Spanning most of the Northern Hemisphere, we suggest that this cold phase be considered as an additional environmental factor contributing to the establishment of the Justinian plague, transformation of the eastern Roman Empire and collapse of the Sasanian Empire, movements out of the Asian steppe and Arabian Peninsula, spread of Slavic-speaking peoples and political upheavals in China.
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7.
  • Büntgen, Ulf, et al. (författare)
  • Global tree-ring response and inferred climate variation following the mid-thirteenth century Samalas eruption
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Climate Dynamics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0930-7575 .- 1432-0894. ; 59:1-2, s. 531-546
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The largest explosive volcanic eruption of the Common Era in terms of estimated sulphur yield to the stratosphere was identified in glaciochemical records 40 years ago, and dates to the mid-thirteenth century. Despite eventual attribution to the Samalas (Rinjani) volcano in Indonesia, the eruption date remains uncertain, and the climate response only partially understood. Seeking a more global perspective on summer surface temperature and hydroclimate change following the eruption, we present an analysis of 249 tree-ring chronologies spanning the thirteenth century and representing all continents except Antarctica. Of the 170 predominantly temperature sensitive high-frequency chronologies, the earliest hints of boreal summer cooling are the growth depressions found at sites in the western US and Canada in 1257 CE. If this response is a result of Samalas, it would be consistent with an eruption window of circa May-July 1257 CE. More widespread summer cooling across the mid-latitudes of North America and Eurasia is pronounced in 1258, while records from Scandinavia and Siberia reveal peak cooling in 1259. In contrast to the marked post-Samalas temperature response at high-elevation sites in the Northern Hemisphere, no strong hydroclimatic anomalies emerge from the 79 precipitation-sensitive chronologies. Although our findings remain spatially biased towards the western US and central Europe, and growth-climate response patterns are not always dominated by a single meteorological factor, this study offers a global proxy framework for the evaluation of paleoclimate model simulations.
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8.
  • Büntgen, Ulf, et al. (författare)
  • Global wood anatomical perspective on the onset of the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA) in the mid-6th century CE
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Science Bulletin. - : Elsevier BV. - 2095-9273. ; 67:22, s. 2336-2344
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Linked to major volcanic eruptions around 536 and 540 CE, the onset of the Late Antique Little Ice Age has been described as the coldest period of the past two millennia. The exact timing and spatial extent of this exceptional cold phase are, however, still under debate because of the limited resolution and geographical distribution of the available proxy archives. Here, we use 106 wood anatomical thin sections from 23 forest sites and 20 tree species in both hemispheres to search for cell-level fingerprints of ephemeral summer cooling between 530 and 550 CE. After cross-dating and double-staining, we identified 89 Blue Rings (lack of cell wall lignification), nine Frost Rings (cell deformation and collapse), and 93 Light Rings (reduced cell wall thickening) in the Northern Hemisphere. Our network reveals evidence for the strongest temperature depression between mid-July and early-August 536 CE across North America and Eurasia, whereas more localised cold spells occurred in the summers of 532, 540–43, and 548 CE. The lack of anatomical signatures in the austral trees suggests limited incursion of stratospheric volcanic aerosol into the Southern Hemisphere extra-tropics, that any forcing was mitigated by atmosphere-ocean dynamical responses and/or concentrated outside the growing season, or a combination of factors. Our findings demonstrate the advantage of wood anatomical investigations over traditional dendrochronological measurements, provide a benchmark for Earth system models, support cross-disciplinary studies into the entanglements of climate and history, and question the relevance of global climate averages.
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9.
  • Büntgen, Ulf, et al. (författare)
  • Limited capacity of tree growth to mitigate the global greenhouse effect under predicted warming
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 10
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • It is generally accepted that animal heartbeat and lifespan are often inversely correlated, however, the relationship between productivity and longevity has not yet been described for trees growing under industrial and pre-industrial climates. Using 1768 annually resolved and absolutely dated ring width measurement series from living and dead conifers that grew in undisturbed, high-elevation sites in the Spanish Pyrenees and the Russian Altai over the past 2000 years, we test the hypothesis of grow fast-die young. We find maximum tree ages are significantly correlated with slow juvenile growth rates. We conclude, the interdependence between higher stem productivity, faster tree turnover, and shorter carbon residence time, reduces the capacity of forest ecosystems to store carbon under a climate warming-induced stimulation of tree growth at policy-relevant timescales.
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10.
  • Büntgen, Ulf, et al. (författare)
  • Multi-proxy dating of Iceland's major pre-settlement Katla eruption to 822-823 CE
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Geology. - 0091-7613 .- 1943-2682. ; 45:9, s. 783-786
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Investigations of the impacts of past volcanic eruptions on climate, environment, and society require accurate chronologies. However, eruptions that are not recorded in historical documents can seldom be dated exactly. Here we use annually resolved radiocarbon (C-14) measurements to isolate the 775 CE cosmogenic C-14 peak in a subfossil birch tree that was buried by a glacial outburst flood in southern Iceland. We employ this absolute time marker to date a subglacial eruption of Katla volcano at late 822 CE to early 823 CE. We argue for correlation between the 822-823 CE eruption and a conspicuous sulfur anomaly evident in Greenland ice cores, which follows in the wake of an even larger volcanic signal (ca. 818-820 CE) as yet not attributed to a known eruption. An abrupt summer cooling in 824 CE, evident in tree-ring reconstructions for Fennoscandia and the Northern Hemisphere, suggests a climatic response to the Katla eruption. Written historical sources from Europe and China corroborate our proposed tree ring-radiocarbon-ice core linkage but also point to combined effects of eruptions occurring during this period. Our study describes the oldest precisely dated, high-latitude eruption and reveals the impact of an extended phase of volcanic forcing in the early 9th century. It also provides insight into the existence of prehistoric woodland cover and the nature of volcanism several decades before Iceland's permanent settlement began.
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11.
  • Büntgen, Ulf, et al. (författare)
  • New Tree-Ring Evidence from the Pyrenees Reveals Western Mediterranean Climate Variability since Medieval Times
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Journal of Climate. - 0894-8755 .- 1520-0442. ; 30:14, s. 5295-5318
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Paleoclimatic evidence is necessary to place the current warming and drying of the western Mediterranean basin in a long-term perspective of natural climate variability. Annually resolved and absolutely dated temperature proxies south of the European Alps that extend back into medieval times are, however, mainly limited to measurements of maximum latewood density (MXD) from high-elevation conifers. Here, the authors present the world's best replicated MXD site chronology of 414 living and relict Pinus uncinata trees found >2200 m above mean sea level (MSL) in the Spanish central Pyrenees. This composite record correlates significantly (p <= 0.01) with May-June and August-September mean temperatures over most of the Iberian Peninsula and northern Africa (r = 0.72; 1950-2014). Spanning the period 1186-2014 of the Common Era (CE), the new reconstruction reveals overall warmer conditions around 1200 and 1400, and again after around 1850. The coldest reconstructed summer in 1258 (-4.4 degrees C compared to 1961-90) followed the largest known volcanic eruption of the CE. The twentieth century is characterized by pronounced summer cooling in the 1970s, subsequently rising temperatures until 2003, and a slowdown of warming afterward. Little agreement is found with climate model simulations that consistently overestimate recent summer warming and underestimate preindustrial temperature changes. Interannual-multidecadal covariability with regional hydroclimate includes summer pluvials after large volcanic eruptions. This study demonstrates the relevance of updating MXD-based temperature reconstructions, not only back in time but also toward the present, and emphasizes the importance of comparing temperature and hydroclimatic proxies, as well as model simulations for understanding regional climate dynamics.
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12.
  • Büntgen, Ulf, et al. (författare)
  • Plants in the UK flower a month earlier under recent warming
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences. - : The Royal Society. - 0962-8452 .- 1471-2954. ; 289:1968
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Global temperatures are rising at an unprecedented rate, but environmental responses are often difficult to recognize and quantify. Long-term observations of plant phenology, the annually recurring sequence of plant developmental stages, can provide sensitive measures of climate change and important information for ecosystem services. Here, we present 419 354 recordings of the first flowering date from 406 plant species in the UK between 1753 and 2019 CE. Community-wide first flowering advanced by almost one month on average when comparing all observations before and after 1986 (p < 0.0001). The mean first flowering time is 6 days earlier in southern than northern sites, 5 days earlier under urban than rural settings, and 1 day earlier at lower than higher elevations. Compared to trees and shrubs, the largest lifeform-specific phenological shift of 32 days is found in herbs, which are generally characterized by fast turnover rates and potentially high levels of genetic adaptation. Correlated with January-April maximum temperatures at -0.81 from 1952-2019 (p < 0.0001), the observed trends (5.4 days per decade) and extremes (66 days between the earliest and latest annual mean) in the UK's first flowering dataset can affect the functioning and productivity of ecosystems and agriculture.
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13.
  • Büntgen, Ulf, et al. (författare)
  • Prominent role of volcanism in Common Era climate variability and human history
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Dendrochronologia. - : Elsevier BV. - 1125-7865 .- 1612-0051. ; 64
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • © 2020 Elsevier GmbH Climate reconstructions for the Common Era are compromised by the paucity of annually-resolved and absolutely-dated proxy records prior to medieval times. Where reconstructions are based on combinations of different climate archive types (of varying spatiotemporal resolution, dating uncertainty, record length and predictive skill), it is challenging to estimate past amplitude ranges, disentangle the relative roles of natural and anthropogenic forcing, or probe deeper interrelationships between climate variability and human history. Here, we compile and analyse updated versions of all the existing summer temperature sensitive tree-ring width chronologies from the Northern Hemisphere that span the entire Common Era. We apply a novel ensemble approach to reconstruct extra-tropical summer temperatures from 1 to 2010 CE, and calculate uncertainties at continental to hemispheric scales. Peak warming in the 280s, 990s and 1020s, when volcanic forcing was low, was comparable to modern conditions until 2010 CE. The lowest June–August temperature anomaly in 536 not only marks the beginning of the coldest decade, but also defines the onset of the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA). While prolonged warmth during Roman and medieval times roughly coincides with the tendency towards societal prosperity across much of the North Atlantic/European sector and East Asia, major episodes of volcanically-forced summer cooling often presaged widespread famines, plague outbreaks and political upheavals. Our study reveals a larger amplitude of spatially synchronized summer temperature variation during the first millennium of the Common Era than previously recognised.
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14.
  • Büntgen, Ulf, et al. (författare)
  • Recent European drought extremes beyond Common Era background variability
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Nature Geoscience. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1752-0894 .- 1752-0908. ; 14:4, s. 190-196
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Europe's recent summer droughts have had devastating ecological and economic consequences, but the severity and cause of these extremes remain unclear. Here we present 27,080 annually resolved and absolutely dated measurements of tree-ring stable carbon and oxygen (delta C-13 and delta O-18) isotopes from 21 living and 126 relict oaks (Quercus spp.) used to reconstruct central European summer hydroclimate from 75 bce to 2018 ce. We find that the combined inverse delta C-13 and delta O-18 values correlate with the June-August Palmer Drought Severity Index from 1901-2018 at 0.73 (P < 0.001). Pluvials around 200, 720 and 1100 ce, and droughts around 40, 590, 950 and 1510 ce and in the twenty-first century, are superimposed on a multi-millennial drying trend. Our reconstruction demonstrates that the sequence of recent European summer droughts since 2015 ce is unprecedented in the past 2,110 years. This hydroclimatic anomaly is probably caused by anthropogenic warming and associated changes in the position of the summer jet stream. European summer droughts in recent years are anomalously severe compared with those of the previous 2,000 years, according to a synthesis of annually resolved tree-ring carbon and oxygen isotope records.
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15.
  • Büntgen, Ulf, et al. (författare)
  • Reply to 'Limited Late Antique cooling'
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Nature Geoscience. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1752-0894 .- 1752-0908. ; 10:4, s. 243-243
  • Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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16.
  • Büntgen, Ulf, et al. (författare)
  • The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 12
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Tree-ring chronologies underpin the majority of annually-resolved reconstructions of Common Era climate. However, they are derived using different datasets and techniques, the ramifications of which have hitherto been little explored. Here, we report the results of a double-blind experiment that yielded 15 Northern Hemisphere summer temperature reconstructions from a common network of regional tree-ring width datasets. Taken together as an ensemble, the Common Era reconstruction mean correlates with instrumental temperatures from 1794–2016 CE at 0.79 (p < 0.001), reveals summer cooling in the years following large volcanic eruptions, and exhibits strong warming since the 1980s. Differing in their mean, variance, amplitude, sensitivity, and persistence, the ensemble members demonstrate the influence of subjectivity in the reconstruction process. We therefore recommend the routine use of ensemble reconstruction approaches to provide a moreconsensual picture of past climate variability.
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18.
  • Büntgen, Ulf, et al. (författare)
  • Tree-Ring Amplification of the Early Nineteenth-Century Summer Cooling in Central Europe
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Journal of Climate. - 0894-8755 .- 1520-0442. ; 28:13, s. 5272-5288
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Annually resolved and absolutely dated tree-ring chronologies are the most important proxy archives to reconstruct climate variability over centuries to millennia. However, the suitability of tree-ring chronologies to reflect the “true” spectral properties of past changes in temperature and hydroclimate has recently been debated. At issue is the accurate quantification of temperature differences between early nineteenth-century cooling and recent warming. In this regard, central Europe (CEU) offers the unique opportunity to compare evidence from instrumental measurements, paleomodel simulations, and proxy reconstructions covering both the exceptionally hot summer of 2003 and the year without summer in 1816. This study uses 565 Swiss stone pine (Pinus cembra) ring width samples from high-elevation sites in the Slovakian Tatra Mountains and Austrian Alps to reconstruct CEU summer temperatures over the past three centuries. This new temperature history is compared to different sets of instrumental measurements and state-of-the-art climate model simulations. All records independently reveal the coolest conditions in the 1810s and warmest after 1996, but the ring width–based reconstruction overestimates the intensity and duration of the early nineteenth-century summer cooling by approximately 1.5°C at decadal scales. This proxy-specific deviation is most likely triggered by inflated biological memory in response to reduced warm season temperature, together with changes in radiation and precipitation following the Tambora eruption in April 1815. While suggesting there exists a specific limitation in ring width chronologies to capture abrupt climate perturbations with increased climate system inertia, the results underline the importance of alternative dendrochronological and wood anatomical parameters, including stable isotopes and maximum density, to assess the frequency and severity of climatic extremes.
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19.
  • Charpentier Ljungqvist, Fredrik, 1982-, et al. (författare)
  • Climatic signatures in early modern European grain harvest yields
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 19:12, s. 2463-2491
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The association between climate variability and grain harvest yields has been an important component of food security and economy in European history. Yet, inter-regional comparisons of climate–yield relationships have been hampered by locally varying data types and the use of different statistical methods. Using a coherent statistical framework, considering the effects of diverse serial correlations on statistical significance, we assess the temperature and hydroclimate (precipitation and drought) signatures in grain harvest yields across varying environmental settings of early modern (ca. 1500–1800) Europe. An unprecedentedly large network of yield records from northern (Sweden), central (Switzerland), and southern (Spain) Europe are compared with a diverse set of seasonally and annually resolved palaeoclimate reconstructions. Considering the effects of different crop types and time series frequencies, we find within regions consistent climate–harvest yield associations characterized by a significant summer soil moisture signal in Sweden, winter temperature and precipitation signals in Switzerland, and spring and annual mean temperature signals in Spain. The regional-scale climate–harvest associations are weaker than the recently revealed climate signals in early modern grain prices but similar in strength to modern climate–harvest relationships at comparable spatial scales. This is a noteworthy finding considering the uncertainties inherent in both historical harvest and palaeoclimate data.
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20.
  • Charpentier Ljungqvist, Fredrik, et al. (författare)
  • The significance of climate variability on early modern European grain prices
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Cliometrica. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1863-2505 .- 1863-2513. ; 16, s. 29-77
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Grain was the most important food source in early modern Europe (c. 1500-1800), and its price influenced the entire economy. The extent to which climate variability determined grain price variations remains contested, and claims of solar cycle influences on prices are disputed. We thoroughly reassess these questions, within a framework of comprehensive statistical analysis, by employing an unprecedentedly large grain price data set together with state-of-the-art palaeoclimate reconstructions and long meteorological series. A highly significant negative grain price-temperature relationship (i.e. colder = high prices and vice versa) is found across Europe. This association increases at larger spatial and temporal scales and reaches a correlation of -0.41 considering the European grain price average and previous year June-August temperatures at annual resolution, and of -0.63 at decadal timescales. This strong relationship is of episodic rather than periodic (cyclic) nature. Only weak and spatially inconsistent signals of hydroclimate (precipitation and drought), and no meaningful association with solar variations, are detected in the grain prices. The significant and persistent temperature effects on grain prices imply that this now rapidly changing climate element has been a more important factor in European economic history, even in southern Europe, than commonly acknowledged.
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21.
  • Duethorn, Elisabeth, et al. (författare)
  • Influence of micro-site conditions on tree-ring climate signals and trends in central and northern Sweden
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Trees. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0931-1890 .- 1432-2285. ; 27:5, s. 1395-1404
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Tree-ring chronologies are important indicators of pre-instrumental, natural climate variability. Some of the longest chronologies are from northern Fennoscandia, where ring width measurement series from living trees are combined with series from sub-fossil trees, preserved in shallow lakes, to form millennial-length records. We here assess the recent ends of such timeseries by comparing climate signals and growth characteristics in central and northern Sweden, of (1) trees growing at lakeshore micro-sites (representing the source of sub-fossil material of supra-long chronologies), with (2) trees collected in dryer micro-sites several meters inland. Calibration trials reveal a predominating June-September temperature signal in N-Sweden and a weaker but significant May-September precipitation signal in C-Sweden. At the micro-site level, the temperature signal in N-Sweden is stronger in the lakeshore trees compared to the inland trees, whereas the precipitation signal in C-Sweden remains unchanged among the lakeshore and inland trees. Tree-rings at cambial ages > 40 years are also substantially wider in the lakeshore micro-site in C-Sweden, and juvenile rings are more variable (and wider) in the dryer micro-site in N-Sweden (compared to the adjacent micro-sites). By combining the data of the various micro-sites with relict samples spanning the past 1,000 years, we demonstrate that growth rate differences at the micro-site scale can affect the low frequency trends of millennial-length chronologies. For the supra-long chronologies from northern Fennoscandia, that are derived from sub-fossil lake material, it is recommended to combine these data with measurement series from only lakeshore trees.
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22.
  • Esper, Jan, et al. (författare)
  • Circumferential and Longitudinal delta C-13 Variability in a Larix decidua Trunk from the Swiss Alps
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Forests. - : MDPI AG. - 1999-4907. ; 11:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Tree-ring stable isotopes are insightful proxies providing information on pre-instrumental climate fluctuations, yet the variability of these data within a tree trunk has not been fully explored. Here, we analyze longitudinal and circumferential changes in tree-ring delta C-13 values from 1991-2010, considering seven height levels from 1 to 13 m above ground and six sampling directions (radii) separated by 60 degrees around the stem. The disk samples were taken from a 360-year old European larch (Larix decidua Mill.) that grew at 1675 m above sea level in the Simplon Valley, Switzerland. Results show that the circumferential delta C-13 variability, defined as the difference between the minimum and maximum isotope values within a single ring at a certain height, ranges from 0.5 to 2.8 parts per thousand. These differences appear substantial as they match the range of year-to-year variations retained in long tree-ring delta C-13 time series used for climate reconstruction. The assessment of longitudinal variability demonstrated a systematic change of similar to 0.1 parts per thousand m(-1) towards isotopically heavier (less negative) delta C-13 values with increasing tree height, likely reflecting a vertical gradient towards isotopically heavier needle tissue due to changing microclimatic conditions and CO2 stratification within the canopy. Calibration against regional climate data indicates no substantial signal changes in delta C-13 values within the trunk. We conclude that the longitudinal isotope gradient adds uncertainty to long delta C-13 chronologies derived from subfossil material of unknown (and changing) sampling heights. The large circumferential variability recorded in the sub-alpine larch suggests that more than two cores are needed to analyze absolute delta C-13 values representative for each tree.
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23.
  • Esper, Jan, et al. (författare)
  • Eastern Mediterranean summer temperatures since 730 CE from Mt. Smolikas tree-ring densities
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Climate Dynamics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0930-7575 .- 1432-0894. ; 54:3-4, s. 1367-1382
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The Mediterranean has been identified as particularly vulnerable to climate change, yet a high-resolution temperature reconstruction extending back into the Medieval Warm Period is still lacking. Here we present such a record from a high-elevation site on Mt. Smolikas in northern Greece, where some of Europe's oldest trees provide evidence of warm season temperature variability back to 730 CE. The reconstruction is derived from 192 annually resolved, latewood density series from ancient living and relict Pinus heldreichii trees calibrating at r(1911-2015) = 0.73 against regional July-September (JAS) temperatures. Although the recent 1985-2014 period was the warmest 30-year interval (JAS Twrt.1961-1990 = + 0.71 degrees C) since the eleventh century, temperatures during the ninth to tenth centuries were even warmer, including the warmest reconstructed 30-year period from 876-905 (+ 0.78 degrees C). These differences between warm periods are statistically insignificant though. Several distinct cold episodes punctuate the Little Ice Age, albeit the coldest 30-year period is centered during high medieval times from 997-1026 (- 1.63 degrees C). Comparison with reconstructions from the Alps and Scandinavia shows that a similar cold episode occurred in central Europe but was absent at northern latitudes. The reconstructions also reveal different millennial-scale temperature trends (NEur = - 0.73 degrees C/1000 years, CEur = - 0.13 degrees C, SEur = + 0.23 degrees C) potentially triggered by latitudinal changes in summer insolation due to orbital forcing. These features, the opposing millennial-scale temperature trends and the medieval multi-decadal cooling recorded in Central Europe and the Mediterranean, are not well captured in state-of-the-art climate model simulations.
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24.
  • Esper, Jan, et al. (författare)
  • Environmental drivers of historical grain price variations in Europe
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Climate Research (CR). - : Inter-Research Science Center. - 0936-577X .- 1616-1572. ; 72:1, s. 39-52
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Grain price (GP) volatility has been a central constituent of European commerce, with fluctuations in barley, rye and wheat prices having been carefully documented over centuries. However, a thorough understanding of the climatic and environmental drivers of long-term GP variations is still lacking. Here, we present a network of historical GP records from 19 cities in central and southern Europe for the 14th to 18th centuries. Spatial variability at interannual to multidecadal scales within this network was compared with reconstructed warm-season temperatures and hydro climatic conditions. We show that European GPs are tightly coupled with historical famines and that food shortages coincide with regional summer drought anomalies. Direct correlations between historical GP and reconstructed drought indices are low, hardly exceeding r = -0.2. Yet if the analysis is focused on extreme events, the climatic controls on high-frequency price variations become obvious: GPs were exceptionally high during dry periods and exceptionally low during wet periods. In addition, we find that GP variations were affected by temperature fluctuations at multidecadal timescales. The influence of summer temperatures is particularly strong over the 1650-1750 period, subsequent to the Thirty Years' War, reaching r = -0.40 at the European scale. This observation is supported by the lack of correlation among regional GP clusters during the period of hostilities and increased inter-regional correlation thereafter. These results demonstrate that the exchange of goods and spatial coherence of GP data in Europe were controlled both by socio-political and environmental factors, with environmental factors being more influential during peacetime.
  •  
25.
  • Esper, Jan, et al. (författare)
  • European summer temperature response to annually dated volcanic eruptions over the past nine centuries
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Bulletin of Volcanology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0258-8900 .- 1432-0819. ; 75:7, s. 736-
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The drop in temperature following large volcanic eruptions has been identified as an important component of natural climate variability. However, due to the limited number of large eruptions that occurred during the period of instrumental observations, the precise amplitude of post-volcanic cooling is not well constrained. Here we present new evidence on summer temperature cooling over Europe in years following volcanic eruptions. We compile and analyze an updated network of tree-ring maximum latewood density chronologies, spanning the past nine centuries, and compare cooling signatures in this network with exceptionally long instrumental station records and state-of-the-art general circulation models. Results indicate post-volcanic June-August cooling is strongest in Northern Europe 2 years after an eruption (-0.52 +/- 0.05 degrees C), whereas in Central Europe the temperature response is smaller and occurs 1 year after an eruption (-0.18 +/- 0.07 degrees C). We validate these estimates by comparison with the shorter instrumental network and evaluate the statistical significance of post-volcanic summer temperature cooling in the context of natural climate variability over the past nine centuries. Finding no significant post-volcanic temperature cooling lasting longer than 2 years, our results question the ability of large eruptions to initiate long-term temperature changes through feedback mechanisms in the climate system. We discuss the implications of these findings with respect to the response seen in general circulation models and emphasize the importance of considering well-documented, annually dated eruptions when assessing the significance of volcanic forcing on continental-scale temperature variations.
  •  
26.
  • Esper, Jan, et al. (författare)
  • Large-scale, millennial-length temperature reconstructions from tree-rings
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Dendrochronologia. - : Elsevier BV. - 1125-7865 .- 1612-0051. ; 50, s. 81-90
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Over the past two decades, the dendroclimate community has produced various annually resolved, warm season temperature reconstructions for the extratropical Northern Hemisphere. Here we compare these tree-ring based reconstructions back to 831 CE and present a set of basic metrics to provide guidance for non-specialists on their interpretation and use. We specifically draw attention to (i) the imbalance between (numerous) short and (few) long site chronologies incorporated into the hemispheric means, (ii) the beneficial effects of including maximum latewood density chronologies in the recently published reconstructions, (iii) a decrease in reconstruction covariance prior to 1400 CE, and (iv) the varying amplitudes and trends of reconstructed temperatures over the past 1100 years. Whereas the reconstructions agree on several important features, such as warmth during medieval times and cooler temperatures in the 17th and 19th centuries, they still exhibit substantial differences during 13th and 14th centuries. We caution users who might consider combining the reconstructions through simple averaging that all reconstructions share some of the same underlying tree-ring data, and provide four recommendations to guide future efforts to better understand past millennium temperature variability.
  •  
27.
  • Esper, Jan, et al. (författare)
  • LONG-TERM SUMMER TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS IN THE PYRENEES FROM DETRENDED STABLE CARBON ISOTOPES
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Geochronometria. - : Walter de Gruyter GmbH. - 1733-8387 .- 1897-1695. ; 42:1, s. 53-59
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Substantial effort has recently been put into the development of climate reconstructions from tree-ring stable carbon isotopes, though the interpretation of long-term trends retained in such timeseries remains challenging. Here we use detrended delta C-13 measurements in Pinus uncinata tree-rings, from the Spanish Pyrenees, to reconstruct decadal variations in summer temperature back to the 13th century. The June-August temperature signal of this reconstruction is attributed using decadally as well as annually resolved, 20th century delta C-13 data. Results indicate that late 20th century warming has not been unique within the context of the past 750 years. Our reconstruction contains greater amplitude than previous reconstructions derived from traditional tree-ring density data, and describes particularly cool conditions during the late 19th century. Some of these differences, including early warm periods in the 14th and 17th centuries, have been retained via d13C timeseries detrending - a novel approach in tree-ring stable isotope chronology development. The overall reduced variance in earlier studies points to an underestimation of pre-instrumental summer temperature variability derived from traditional tree-ring parameters.
  •  
28.
  • Esper, Jan, et al. (författare)
  • Northern European summer temperature variations over the Common Era from integrated tree-ring density records
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Journal of Quaternary Science. - : Wiley. - 0267-8179 .- 1099-1417. ; 29:5, s. 487-494
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Tree-ring chronologies of maximum latewood density are most suitable to reconstruct annually resolved summer temperature variations of the late Holocene. The two longest such chronologies have been developed in northern Europe stretching back to the 2nd century BC, and the 5th century AD. We show where similarities between the two chronologies exist, and combine portions of both into a new summer temperature reconstruction for the Common Era. To minimize the transfer of potential biases, we assess the contribution of the candidate reconstructions' measurements, and exclude data (i) from exceptionally young and old trees, and (ii) produced by different laboratory technologies. Our new composite reconstruction reveals warmer conditions during Roman, Medieval and recent times, separated by prolonged cooling during the Migration period and Little Ice Age. Twentieth century warmth, as indicated in one of the existing density records, is reduced in the new reconstruction, also affecting the overall, millennial-scale, cooling trend over the late Holocene (-0.30 degrees C per 1000 years). Due to the reduced biological memory, typical for tree-ring density measurements, the new reconstruction is most suitable for evaluating the rate and speed of abrupt summer cooling following large volcanic eruptions.
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29.
  • Esper, Jan, et al. (författare)
  • Ranking of tree-ring based temperature reconstructions of the past millennium
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 145, s. 134-151
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Tree-ring chronologies are widely used to reconstruct high-to low-frequency variations in growing season temperatures over centuries to millennia. The relevance of these timeseries in large-scale climate reconstructions is often determined by the strength of their correlation against instrumental temperature data. However, this single criterion ignores several important quantitative and qualitative characteristics of tree-ring chronologies. Those characteristics are (i) data homogeneity, (ii) sample replication, (iii) growth coherence, (iv) chronology development, and (v) climate signal including the correlation with instrumental data. Based on these 5 characteristics, a reconstruction-scoring scheme is proposed and applied to 39 published, millennial-length temperature reconstructions from Asia, Europe, North America, and the Southern Hemisphere. Results reveal no reconstruction scores highest in every category and each has their own strengths and weaknesses. Reconstructions that perform better overall include N-Scan and Finland from Europe, E-Canada from North America, Yamal and Dzhelo from Asia. Reconstructions performing less well include W-Himalaya and Karakorum from Asia, Tatra and S-Finland from Europe, and Great Basin from North America. By providing a comprehensive set of criteria to evaluate tree-ring chronologies we hope to improve the development of large-scale temperature reconstructions spanning the past millennium. All reconstructions and their corresponding scores are provided at www.blogs.uni-mainz.de/fb09climatology.
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30.
  • Esper, Jan, et al. (författare)
  • Site-specific climatic signals in stable isotope records from Swedish pine forests
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Trees. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0931-1890 .- 1432-2285. ; 32:3, s. 855-869
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Pinus sylvestris tree-ring delta C-13 and delta O-18 records from locally moist sites in central and northern Sweden contain consistently stronger climate signals than their dry site counterparts. We produced twentieth century stable isotope data from Pinus sylvestris trees near lakeshores and inland sites in northern Sweden (near Kiruna) and central Sweden (near Stockholm) to evaluate the influence of changing microsite conditions on the climate sensitivity of tree-ring delta C-13 and delta O-18. The data reveal a latitudinal trend towards lower C and O isotope values near the Arctic tree line (-0.8 parts per thousand for delta C-13 and - 2.4 parts per thousand for delta O-18 relative to central Sweden) reflecting widely recognized atmospheric changes. At the microsite scale, delta C-13 decreases from the dry inland to the moist lakeshore sites (- 0.7 parts per thousand in Kiruna and - 1.2 parts per thousand in Stockholm), evidence of the importance of groundwater access to this proxy. While all isotope records from northern and central Sweden correlate significantly against temperature, precipitation, cloud cover and/or drought data, climate signals in the records from moist microsites are consistently stronger, which emphasizes the importance of site selection when producing stable isotope chronologies. Overall strongest correlations are found with summer temperature, except for delta O-18 from Stockholm correlating best with instrumental drought indices. These findings are complemented by significant positive correlations with temperature-sensitive ring width data in Kiruna, and inverse (or absent) correlations with precipitation-sensitive ring width data in Stockholm. A conclusive differentiation between leading and co-varying forcings is challenging based on only the calibration against often defective instrumental climate data, and would require an improved understanding of the physiological processes that control isotope fractionation at varying microsites and joined application of forward modelling.
  •  
31.
  • Esper, Jan, et al. (författare)
  • Testing the hypothesis of post-volcanic missing rings in temperature sensitive dendrochronological data
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Dendrochronologia. - : Elsevier BV. - 1125-7865 .- 1612-0051. ; 31:3, s. 216-222
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The precise, annual dating control, inherent to dendrochronology, has recently been questioned through a combined analysis of tree-growth and coupled climate models (Mann et al. (2012; hereafter MAN12)) suggesting single tree-rings in temperature limited environments are missing following large volcanic events. We test this hypothesis of missing, post-volcanic rings by using a compilation of maximum late-wood density (MXD) records that are typically used for reconstructing temperature and the detection of volcanic events, together with a unique set of long instrumental station data from Europe reaching back into the early 18th century. We investigate the temporal coherence between tree-ring MXD and observed summer temperatures before and after the most significant, precisely dated, volcanic event of the past 1000 years, the 1815 Tambora eruption widely known as the cause for the 1816 year without a summer. Comparison of existing and newly developed MXD chronologies from cold environments in Northern Scandinavia ((r) over bar North = 0.70, N=3) and the European Alps, including the Pyrenees, ((r) over bar central = 0.46, N=4) reveals significant interseries correlations over the 1722-1976 common period, suggesting coherence among these independently developed timeseries. Comparisons of these data with observed JJA temperatures - from 1722 to 1976, a 94-year pre-Tambora (1722-1815), and a 94-year post-Tambora (1817-1910) period - reveals significant and temporally stable correlations ranging from 0.32 to 0.68. However, if we assume the 1816 ring is missing in the MXD chronologies (i.e., shift the pre-Tambora data by one year), all proxy/instrumental correlations fall apart approaching zero. Results from an additional experiment, where the long instrumental record is replaced by an annually resolved, 500-year, summer temperature reconstruction derived from documentary evidence, corroborates the findings from the first experiment: significant positive correlations with the unmolested chronologies and zero correlation with the perturbed chronologies back to 1500 AD. These elementary analyses indicate that either the tree-ring chronologies are correctly dated, i.e., no is ring missing in the year without a summer, or that both the long instrumental and documentary records contain dating uncertainties. As the latter is unlikely, we conclude the MAN12 hypothesis on post-volcanic missing rings can be rejected based on simple comparisons of tree-ring, instrumental and documentary data over the past 300-500 years from Central and Northern Europe.
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32.
  • Esper, Jan, et al. (författare)
  • The IPCC’s reductive Common Era temperature history
  • 2024
  • Ingår i: Communications Earth & Environment. - 2662-4435. ; 5
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Common Era temperature variability has been a prominent component in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports over the last several decades and was twice featured in their Summary for Policymakers. A single reconstruction of mean Northern Hemisphere temperature variability was first highlighted in the 2001 Summary for Policymakers, despite other estimates that existed at the time. Subsequent reports assessed many large-scale temperature reconstructions, but the entirety of Common Era temperature history in the most recent Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was restricted to a single estimate of mean annual global temperatures. We argue that this focus on a single reconstruction is an insufficient summary of our understanding of temperature variability over the Common Era. We provide a complementary perspective by offering an alternative assessment of the state of our understanding in high-resolution paleoclimatology for the Common Era and call for future reports to present a more accurate and comprehensive assessment of our knowledge about this important period of human and climate history.
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33.
  • Essell, Helen, et al. (författare)
  • A frequency-optimised temperature record for the Holocene
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - 1748-9326. ; 18:11
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Existing global mean surface temperature reconstructions for the Holocene lack high-frequency variability that is essential for contextualising recent trends and extremes in the Earth's climate system. Here, we isolate and recombine archive-specific climate signals to generate a frequency-optimised record of interannual to multi-millennial temperature changes for the past 12 000 years. Average temperatures before ∼8000 years BP and after ∼4000 years BP were 0.26 (±2.84) °C and 0.07 (±2.11) °C cooler than the long-term mean (0–12 000 years BP), while the Holocene Climate Optimum ∼7000–4000 years BP was 0.40 (±1.86) °C warmer. Biased towards Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures, our multi-proxy record captures the spectral properties of transient Earth system model simulations for the same spatial and season domain. The new frequency-optimised trajectory emphasises the importance and complex interplay of natural climate forcing factors throughout the Holocene, with an approximation of the full range of past temperature changes providing novel insights for policymakers addressing the risks of recent anthropogenic warming.
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34.
  • Hartl, Claudia, et al. (författare)
  • Micro-site conditions affect Fennoscandian forest growth
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Dendrochronologia. - : Elsevier BV. - 1125-7865 .- 1612-0051. ; 65
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The long tradition of dendroclimatological studies in Fennoscandia is fostered by the exceptional longevity and temperature sensitivity of tree growth, as well as the existence of well-preserved subfossil wood in shallow lakes and extent peat bogs. Although some of the world’s longest ring width and density-based climate reconstructions have been developed in northern Fennoscandia, it is still unclear if differences in micro-site ecology matter, and if so, whether they have been considered sufficiently in previous studies. We developed a Fennoscandia-wide network of 44 Scots pine ring width chronologies from 22 locations between 59°–70 °N and 16°–31 °E, to assess the effects of moist lakeshores and dry inland micro-sites on tree growth. Our network reveals a strong dependency of pine growth on July temperature, which is also reflected in latitude. Differences in forest productivity between moist and dry micro-sites are likely caused by associated effects on soil temperature. While trees at moist micro-sites at western locations exhibit higher growth rates, this pattern is reversed in the continental eastern part of the network, where increased ring widths are found at drier sites. In addition to the latitudinal increase in growth sensitivity to July temperature, pines at moist sites exhibit an increased dependency of summer warmth. The highest temperature sensitivity and growth coherency, and thus greatest suitability for summer temperature reconstructions, is found in those regions where July mean temperatures range between 11.5 and 13.5 °C, and May precipitation totals do not exceed 100 mm. Our study not only provides guidance for the selection of sampling sites for tree ring-based climate reconstructions, but also reveals the effect of micro-site ecology on Fennoscandian forest growth. The manifestation of micro-site effects varies substantially over the Fennoscandian boreal forest and is predominately triggered by the geographical setting of the stand as expressed by differing abiotic site factors.
  •  
35.
  • Hellmann, Lena, et al. (författare)
  • Diverse growth trends and climate responses across Eurasia's boreal forest
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 11:7
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The area covered by boreal forests accounts for similar to 16% of the global and 22% of the Northern Hemisphere landmass. Changes in the productivity and functioning of this circumpolar biome not only have strong effects on species composition and diversity at regional to larger scales, but also on the Earth's carbon cycle. Although temporal inconsistency in the response of tree growth to temperature has been reported from some locations at the higher northern latitudes, a systematic dendroecological network assessment is still missing for most of the boreal zone. Here, we analyze the geographical patterns of changes in summer temperature and precipitation across northern Eurasia >60 degrees N since 1951 AD, as well as the growth trends and climate responses of 445 Pinus, Larix and Picea ring width chronologies in the same area and period. In contrast to widespread summer warming, fluctuations in precipitation and tree growth are spatially more diverse and overall less distinct. Although the influence of summer temperature on ring formation is increasing with latitude and distinct moisture effects are restricted to a few southern locations, growth sensitivity to June-July temperature variability is only significant at 16.6% of all sites (p <= 0.01). By revealing complex climate constraints on the productivity of Eurasia's northern forests, our results question the a priori suitability of boreal tree-ring width chronologies for reconstructing summer temperatures. This study further emphasizes regional climate differences and their role on the dynamics of boreal ecosystems, and also underlines the importance of free data access to facilitate the compilation and evaluation of massively replicated and updated dendroecological networks.
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36.
  • Holzkämper, Steffen, et al. (författare)
  • Comparison of stable carbon and oxygen isotopes in Picea glauca tree rings and Sphagnum fuscum moss remains from subarctic Canada
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: Quaternary Research. - : Cambridge University Press (CUP). - 0033-5894 .- 1096-0287. ; 78:2, s. 295-302
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Stable isotope ratios from tree rings and peatland mosses have become important proxies of past climate variations. We here compare recent stable carbon and oxygen isotope ratios in cellulose of tree rings from white spruce (Picea glauca), growing near the arctic tree line; and cellulose of Sphagnum fuscum stems, growing in a hummock of a subarctic peatland, in west-central Canada. Results show that carbon isotopes in S. fuscum correlate significantly with July temperatures over the past similar to 20 yr. The oxygen isotopes correlate with both summer temperature and precipitation. Analyses of the tree-ring isotopes revealed summer temperatures to be the main controlling factor for carbon isotope variations, whereas tree-ring oxygen isotope ratios are controlled by a combination of spring temperatures and precipitation totals. We also explore the potential of combining high-frequency (annual) climate signals derived from long tree-ring series with low-frequency (decadal to centennial) climate signals derived from the moss remains in peat deposits. This cross-archive comparison revealed no association between the oxygen isotopes, which likely results from the varying sensitivity of the archives to different seasons. For the carbon isotopes, common variance could be achieved through adjustments of the Sphagnum age model within dating error.
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37.
  • Juckes, Martin N., et al. (författare)
  • Millennial temperature reconstruction intercomparison and evaluation
  • 2007
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - 1814-9324. ; 3, s. 591-609
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • There has been considerable recent interest in paleoclimate reconstructions of the temperature history of the last millennium. A wide variety of techniques have been used. The interrelation among the techniques is sometimes unclear, as different studies often use distinct data sources as well as distinct methodologies. Here recent work is reviewed and some new calculations performed with an aim to clarifying the consequences of the different approaches used. A range of proxy data collections introduced by different authors is used to estimate Northern Hemispheric annual mean temperatures with two reconstruction algorithms: (1) inverse regression and, (2) compositing followed by variance matching (CVM). It is found that inverse regression tends to give large weighting to a small number of proxies and that the second approach (CVM) is more robust to varying proxy input. The choice of proxy records is one reason why different reconstructions show different ranges. A reconstruction using 13 proxy records extending back to AD 1000 shows a maximum pre-industrial temperature of 0.25 K (relative to the 1866 to 1970 mean). The standard error on this estimate, based on the residual in the calibration period, is 0.14 K. Instrumental temperatures for two recent years (1998 and 2005) have exceeded the pre-industrial estimated maximum by more than 4 standard deviations of the calibration period residual.
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38.
  • Kirdyanov, Alexander V., et al. (författare)
  • Ecological and conceptual consequences of Arctic pollution
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Ecology Letters. - : Wiley. - 1461-023X .- 1461-0248. ; 23:12, s. 1827-1837
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Although the effect of pollution on forest health and decline received much attention in the 1980s, it has not been considered to explain the 'Divergence Problem' in dendroclimatology; a decoupling of tree growth from rising air temperatures since the 1970s. Here we use physical and biogeochemical measurements of hundreds of living and dead conifers to reconstruct the impact of heavy industrialisation around Norilsk in northern Siberia. Moreover, we develop a forward model with surface irradiance forcing to quantify long-distance effects of anthropogenic emissions on the functioning and productivity of Siberia's taiga. Downwind from the world's most polluted Arctic region, tree mortality rates of up to 100% have destroyed 24,000 km(2)boreal forest since the 1960s, coincident with dramatic increases in atmospheric sulphur, copper, and nickel concentrations. In addition to regional ecosystem devastation, we demonstrate how 'Arctic Dimming' can explain the circumpolar 'Divergence Problem', and discuss implications on the terrestrial carbon cycle.
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39.
  • Klippel, Lara, et al. (författare)
  • A 1200+year reconstruction of temperature extremes for the northeastern Mediterranean region
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: International Journal of Climatology. - : Wiley. - 0899-8418 .- 1097-0088. ; 39:4, s. 2336-2350
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Proxy evidence is necessary to place current temperature and hydroclimatic changes in a long-term context and to assess the full range of natural and anthropogenic climate forcings. Here, we present the first millennium-length reconstruction of late summer (August-September) temperature variability for the Mediterranean region. We compiled 132 maximum latewood density (MXD) tree-ring series of living and relict Pinus heldreichii trees from a network of four high-elevation sites in the Pindus Mountains of Greece. Forty series reach back into the first millennium and the oldest sample dates to 575 CE. At annual to decadal scales, the record correlates significantly with August-September temperatures over the Balkan Peninsula and northeastern Mediterranean (r1950-2014 = 0.71, p < 0.001). We produce two reconstructions emphasizing interannual and decadal scale variance over the past millennium. Analysis of temperature extremes reveals the coldest summers occurred in 1035, 1117, 1217, 1884 and 1959 and the coldest decades were 1061-1070 and 1811-1820. The warmest summers occurred in 1240 and 1474, and the warmest decades were 1141-1150 and 1481-1490. Comparison of this new reconstruction with MXD-based summer temperature reconstructions across Europe reveals synchronized occurrences of extreme cool summers in the northeastern Mediterranean, and an antiphase-relationship with warm summer temperatures over the British Isles and Scandinavia. This temperature dipole is related to anomalies in the latitudinal position of the North Atlantic Jet. Despite the representation of common atmospheric forcing patterns, the occurrence of warm extremes is limited to few events, suggesting potential weaknesses of MXD to record warm temperature anomalies. In addition, we acknowledge problems in the observational data to capture local temperature variability due to small scale topographic differences in this high-elevation landscape. At a broader geographical scale, the occurrence of common cold summer extremes is restricted to years with volcanically induced changes in radiative forcing.
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40.
  • Klippel, Lara, et al. (författare)
  • A 1286-year hydro-climate reconstruction for the Balkan Peninsula
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Boreas. - : Wiley. - 0300-9483 .- 1502-3885. ; 47:4, s. 1218-1229
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We present a June-July drought reconstruction based on the standardized precipitation index (SPI) for the Balkan Peninsula over the period 730-2015 CE. The reconstruction is developed using a composite Pinus heldreichii tree-ring width chronology, from a high-elevation network of eight sites in the Pindus Mountains in northwest Greece, composed of living trees and relict wood. The dataset includes the ring width series of Europe's currently oldest known living tree, dendrochronologically dated to be more than 1075years old. The spatial coverage of the reconstruction is improved by using an averaged gridded SPI data target derived from a response field that is located north of the study region. Justification for this approach includes the remoteness of instrumental data, the spatial variability of precipitation and synoptic scale circulation patterns. Over the past 1286years, there have been 51 dry and 43 pluvial events. The driest year during the 1286-year-long period was 1660 and the wettest year was 1482. Comparison with shorter reconstructions and documentary evidence validates the new reconstruction, and provides additional insight into socioeconomic impacts and spatial patterns of extreme events. Fifty-nine of 72 previously undescribed extremes occurred prior to the 17th century. The new reconstruction reveals long-term changes in the number of extremes, including substantially fewer drought and pluvial events in the 20th century. Additional tests on the long-term effects of age structure, replication and covariance changes support the heteroscedastic nature of the reconstructed hydro-climatic extremes.
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41.
  • Klippel, Lara, et al. (författare)
  • Differing pre-industrial cooling trends between tree rings and lower-resolution temperature proxies
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 16:2, s. 729-742
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The new PAGES2k global compilation of temperature-sensitive proxies offers an unprecedented opportunity to study regional to global trends associated with orbitally driven changes in solar irradiance over the past 2 millennia. Here, we analyze pre-industrial long-term trends from 1 to 1800 CE across the PAGES2k dataset and find that, in contrast to the gradual cooling apparent in ice core, marine, and lake sediment data, tree rings do not exhibit the same decline. To understand why tree-ring proxies lack any evidence of a significant pre-industrial cooling, we divide those data by location (high Northern Hemisphere latitudes vs. midlatitudes), seasonal response (annual vs. summer), de-trending method, and temperature sensitivity (high vs. low). We conclude that the ability of tree-ring proxies to detect pre-industrial, millennial-long cooling is not affected by latitude, seasonal sensitivity, or detrending method. Caution is advised when using multi-proxy approaches to reconstruct long-term temperature changes over the entire Common Era.
  •  
42.
  • Konter, Oliver, et al. (författare)
  • Climate sensitivity and parameter coherency in annually resolved delta C-13 and delta O-18 from Pinus uncinata tree-ring data in the Spanish Pyrenees
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Chemical Geology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0009-2541 .- 1872-6836. ; 377, s. 12-19
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We explore the 20th century climate sensitivity of annually resolved carbon and oxygen isotope ratios in five Pinus uncinata individuals from the upper treeline in similar to 2400 m asl of the Spanish Pyrenees. Time series of delta C-13 and delta O-18 are calibrated against temperature, precipitation, and drought indices over the period 1901-2009. Negative correlations of delta C-13 with summer precipitation and drought indices, as well as positive correlations with summer temperatures, confirm previous evidence from similar habitats in the Pyrenees. In contrast to this summer climate signal in the carbon isotopes, the delta O-18 record reveals mainly negative correlations with spring precipitation and drought. We explore the coherence between delta C-13 and delta O-18 time series derived from individual trees and assess the influence of widely applied delta C-13 correction procedures on the climate signal strength. Spatial correlation patterns and decomposition of the time series into high-and low-frequency components are used to develop a calibration setup for carbon and oxygen isotope ratios, which will improve long-term climate reconstructions in a region, where classical tree-ring width and density data are limited.
  •  
43.
  • Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier, et al. (författare)
  • Ranking of tree-ring based hydroclimate reconstructions of the past millennium
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 230
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • © 2019 The Authors To place recent hydroclimate changes, including drought occurrences, in a long-term historical context, tree-ring records serve as an important natural archive. Here, we evaluate 46 millennium-long tree-ring based hydroclimate reconstructions for their Data Homogeneity, Sample Replication, Growth Coherence, Chronology Development, and Climate Signal based on criteria published by Esper et al. (2016) to assess tree-ring based temperature reconstructions. The compilation of 46 individually calibrated site reconstructions includes 37 different tree species and stem from North America (n = 29), Asia (n = 10); Europe (n = 5), northern Africa (n = 1) and southern South America (n = 1). For each criterion, the individual reconstructions were ranked in four groups, and results showed that no reconstruction scores highest or lowest for all analyzed parameters. We find no geographical differences in the overall ranking, but reconstructions from arid and semi-arid environments tend to score highest. A strong and stable hydroclimate signal is found to be of greater importance than a long calibration period. The most challenging trade-off identified is between high continuous sample replications, as well as a well-mixed age class distribution over time, and a good internal growth coherence. Unlike temperature reconstructions, a high proportion of the hydroclimate reconstructions are produced using individual series detrending methods removing centennial-scale variability. By providing a quantitative and objective evaluation of all available tree-ring based hydroclimate reconstructions we hope to boost future improvements in the development of such records and provide practical guidance to secondary users of these reconstructions.
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44.
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45.
  • Piermattei, Alma, et al. (författare)
  • A millennium-long 'Blue Ring' chronology from the Spanish Pyrenees reveals severe ephemeral summer cooling after volcanic eruptions
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 15:12
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • 'Blue Rings' (BRs) are distinct wood anatomical anomalies recently discovered in several tree species from different sites. While it is evident that they are associated with a cooling-induced lack of cell wall lignification, BRs have yet to be evaluated systematically in paleoclimate studies. Here, we present a continuous wood anatomical assessment of 31 living and relict pine samples from a high-elevation site in the central Spanish Pyrenees that span the period 1150-2017 CE at annual resolution. While most BR years coincide with cold summer temperatures and many BRs follow large volcanic eruptions, some were formed during overall warm summers. We also see a differential response between eruptions: the Samalas eruption is followed by 80% BRs in 1258, but only a modest signal is evident after the 1815 Tambora eruption, and there are no wood anatomical effects of the Laki eruption in 1783-1784. Apparently linked to a cluster of tropical eruptions in 1695 and 1696 CE, 85% BRs occurred in 1698. This new wood anatomical evidence is corroborated by the record of sulphur deposition in polar ice cores, and corresponds with catastrophic famine and unprecedented mortality in Scotland. The extremely rare occurrence of consecutive BRs in 1345 and 1346 marks the onset and spread of the Black Death, Europe's most devastating plague pandemic. In their ability to capture severe ephemeral cold spells, as short as several days or weeks, BR chronologies can help to investigate and understand the impacts of volcanism on climate and society.
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46.
  • Trachsel, Mathias, et al. (författare)
  • Multi-archive summer temperature reconstruction for the European Alps, AD 1053-1996
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 46, s. 66-79
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We present a multi-archive, multi-proxy summer temperature reconstruction for the European Alpscovering the period AD 1053-1996 using tree-ring and lake sediment data. The new reconstruction isbased on nine different calibration approaches and errors were estimated conservatively. Summertemperatures of the last millennium are characterised by two warm (AD 1053-1171 and 1823-1996) andtwo cold phases (AD 1172-1379 and 1573-1822). Highest pre-industrial summer temperatures of the12th century were 0.3 degC warmer than the 20th century mean but 0.35 degC colder than proxy derivedtemperatures at the end of the 20th century. The lowest temperatures at the end of the 16th centurywere ~1 degC lower than the 20th century mean.
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47.
  • Treydte, Kerstin, et al. (författare)
  • Recent human-induced atmospheric drying across Europe unprecedented in the last 400 years
  • 2024
  • Ingår i: NATURE GEOSCIENCE. - 1752-0894 .- 1752-0908. ; 17, s. 58-65
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The vapor pressure deficit reflects the difference between how much moisture the atmosphere could and actually does hold, a factor that fundamentally affects evapotranspiration, ecosystem functioning, and vegetation carbon uptake. Its spatial variability and long-term trends under natural versus human-influenced climate are poorly known despite being essential for predicting future effects on natural ecosystems and human societies such as crop yield, wildfires, and health. Here we combine regionally distinct reconstructions of pre-industrial summer vapor pressure deficit variability from Europe's largest oxygen-isotope network of tree-ring cellulose with observational records and Earth system model simulations with and without human forcing included. We demonstrate that an intensification of atmospheric drying during the recent decades across different European target regions is unprecedented in a pre-industrial context and that it is attributed to human influence with more than 98% probability. The magnitude of this trend is largest in Western and Central Europe, the Alps and Pyrenees region, and the smallest in southern Fennoscandia. In view of the extreme drought and compound events of the recent years, further atmospheric drying poses an enhanced risk to vegetation, specifically in the densely populated areas of the European temperate lowlands. The atmosphere has dried across most regions of Europe in recent decades, a trend that can be attributed primarily to human impacts, according to tree ring records spanning 400 years and Earth system model simulations.
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48.
  • Wilson, Rob, et al. (författare)
  • Last millennium northern hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings : Part I
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 134, s. 1-18
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Large-scale millennial length Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature reconstructions have been progressively improved over the last 20 years as new datasets have been developed. This paper, and its companion (Part II, Anchukaitis et al. in prep), details the latest tree-ring (TR) based NH land air temperature reconstruction from a temporal and spatial perspective. This work is the first product of a consortium called N-TREND (Northern Hemisphere Tree-Ring Network Development) which brings together dendroclimatologists to identify a collective strategy for improving large-scale summer temperature reconstructions. The new reconstruction, N-TREND2015, utilises 54 records, a significant expansion compared with previous TR studies, and yields an improved reconstruction with stronger statistical calibration metrics. N-TREND2015 is relatively insensitive to the compositing method and spatial weighting used and validation metrics indicate that the new record portrays reasonable coherence with large scale summer temperatures and is robust at all time-scales from 918 to 2004 where at least 3 TR records exist from each major continental mass. N-TREND2015 indicates a longer and warmer medieval period (similar to 900 1170) than portrayed by previous TR NH reconstructions and by the CMIP5 model ensemble, but with better overall agreement between records for the last 600 years. Future dendroclimatic projects should focus on developing new long records from data-sparse regions such as North America and eastern Eurasia as well as ensuring the measurement of parameters related to latewood density to complement ring-width records which can improve local based calibration substantially.
  •  
49.
  • Wilson, Rob, et al. (författare)
  • Last millennium northern hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part I: The long term context
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-3791. ; 134, s. 1-18
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Large-scale millennial length Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature reconstructions have been progressively improved over the last 20 years as new datasets have been developed. This paper, and its companion (Part II, Anchukaitis et al. in prep), details the latest tree-ring (TR) based NH land air temperature reconstruction from a temporal and spatial perspective. This work is the first product of a consortium called N-TREND (Northern Hemisphere Tree-Ring Network Development) which brings together dendroclimatologists to identify a collective strategy for improving large-scale summer temperature reconstructions. The new reconstruction, N-TREND2015, utilises 54 records, a significant expansion compared with previous TR studies, and yields an improved reconstruction with stronger statistical calibration metrics. N-TREND2015 is relatively insensitive to the compositing method and spatial weighting used and validation metrics indicate that the new record portrays reasonable coherence with large scale summer temperatures and is robust at all time-scales from 918 to 2004 where at least 3 TR records exist from each major continental mass. N-TREND2015 indicates a longer and warmer medieval period (~900-1170) than portrayed by previous TR NH reconstructions and by the CMIP5 model ensemble, but with better overall agreement between records for the last 600 years. Future dendroclimatic projects should focus on developing new long records from data-sparse regions such as North America and eastern Eurasia as well as ensuring the measurement of parameters related to latewood density to complement ring-width records which can improve local based calibration substantially.
  •  
50.
  • Yang, Bao, et al. (författare)
  • Long-term decrease in Asian monsoon rainfall and abrupt climate change events over the past 6,700 years
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - Washington : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 118:30
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Asian summer monsoon (ASM) variability and its long-term ecological and societal impacts extending back to Neolithic times are poorly understood due to a lack of high-resolution climate proxy data. Here, we present a precisely dated and well-calibrated treering stable isotope chronology from the Tibetan Plateau with 1- to 5-y resolution that reflects high- to low-frequency ASM variability from 4680 BCE to 2011 CE. Superimposed on a persistent drying trend since the mid-Holocene, a rapid decrease in moisture availability between similar to 2000 and similar to 1500 BCE caused a dry hydroclimatic regime from similar to 1675 to similar to 1185 BCE, with mean precipitation estimated at 42 +/- 4% and 5 +/- 2% lower than during themid-Holocene and the instrumental period, respectively. This second-millennium-BCE megadrought marks the mid-to late Holocene transition, during which regional forests declined and enhanced aeolian activity affected northern Chinese ecosystems. We argue that this abrupt aridification starting similar to 2000 BCE contributed to the shift of Neolithic cultures in northern China and likely triggered human migration and societal transformation.
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