| 1. |
- Luterbacher, J., et al.
(författare)
-
European summer temperatures since Roman times
- 2016
-
Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 11:2
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The spatial context is criticalwhen assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding their frequency and severity in a long-term perspective. Recent international initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new statistical reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and, in turn, the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatiotemporal scales. Here we provide a new proxy-based, annually-resolved, spatial reconstruction of the European summer (June-August) temperature fields back to 755 CE based on Bayesian hierarchical modelling (BHM), together with estimates of the European mean temperature variation since 138 BCE based on BHM and composite-plus-scaling (CPS). Our reconstructions compare well with independent instrumental and proxy-based temperature estimates, but suggest a larger amplitude in summer temperature variability than previously reported. Both CPS and BHM reconstructions indicate that the mean 20th century European summer temperature was not significantly different from some earlier centuries, including the 1st, 2nd, 8th and 10th centuries CE. The 1st century (in BHM also the 10th century) may even have been slightly warmer than the 20th century, but the difference is not statistically significant. Comparing each 50 yr period with the 1951-2000 period reveals a similar pattern. Recent summers, however, have been unusually warm in the context of the last two millennia and there are no 30 yr periods in either reconstruction that exceed the mean average European summer temperature of the last 3 decades (1986-2015 CE). A comparison with an ensemble of climate model simulations suggests that the reconstructed European summer temperature variability over the period 850-2000 CE reflects changes in both internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales. For pan-European temperatures we find slightly better agreement between the reconstruction and the model simulations with high-end estimates for total solar irradiance. Temperature differences between the medieval period, the recent period and the Little Ice Age are larger in the reconstructions than the simulations. This may indicate inflated variability of the reconstructions, a lack of sensitivity and processes to changes in external forcing on the simulated European climate and/or an underestimation of internal variability on centennial and longer time scales.
|
|
| 2. |
- Buntgen, U., et al.
(författare)
-
Tree rings reveal globally coherent signature of cosmogenic radiocarbon events in 774 and 993 CE
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 9
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Though tree-ring chronologies are annually resolved, their dating has never been independently validated at the global scale. Moreover, it is unknown if atmospheric radiocarbon enrichment events of cosmogenic origin leave spatiotemporally consistent fingerprints. Here we measure the 14C content in 484 individual tree rings formed in the periods 770–780 and 990–1000 CE. Distinct 14C excursions starting in the boreal summer of 774 and the boreal spring of 993 ensure the precise dating of 44 tree-ring records from five continents. We also identify a meridional decline of 11-year mean atmospheric radiocarbon concentrations across both hemispheres. Corroborated by historical eye-witness accounts of red auroras, our results suggest a global exposure to strong solar proton radiation. To improve understanding of the return frequency and intensity of past cosmic events, which is particularly important for assessing the potential threat of space weather on our society, further annually resolved 14C measurements are needed.
|
|
| 3. |
- Büntgen, Ulf, et al.
(författare)
-
Cooling and societal change during the Late Antique Little Ice Age from 536 to around 660 AD
- 2016
-
Ingår i: Nature Geoscience. - 1752-0894 .- 1752-0908. ; 9:3, s. 231-236
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climatic changes during the first half of the Common Era have been suggested to play a role in societal reorganizations in Europe and Asia. In particular, the sixth century coincides with rising and falling civilizations, pandemics, human migration and political turmoil. Our understanding of the magnitude and spatial extent as well as the possible causes and concurrences of climate change during this period is, however, still limited. Here we use tree-ring chronologies from the Russian Altai and European Alps to reconstruct summer temperatures over the past two millennia. We find an unprecedented, long-lasting and spatially synchronized cooling following a cluster of large volcanic eruptions in 536, 540 and 547 AD, which was probably sustained by ocean and sea-ice feedbacks, as well as a solar minimum. We thus identify the interval from 536 to about 660 AD as the Late Antique Little Ice Age. Spanning most of the Northern Hemisphere, we suggest that this cold phase be considered as an additional environmental factor contributing to the establishment of the Justinian plague, transformation of the eastern Roman Empire and collapse of the Sasanian Empire, movements out of the Asian steppe and Arabian Peninsula, spread of Slavic-speaking peoples and political upheavals in China.
|
|
| 4. |
- Buntgen, U., et al.
(författare)
-
Recognising bias in Common Era temperature reconstructions
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Dendrochronologia. - : Elsevier BV. - 1125-7865 .- 1612-0051. ; 74
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A steep decline in the quality and quantity of available climate proxy records before medieval times challenges any comparison of reconstructed temperature and hydroclimate trends and extremes between the first and second half of the Common Era. Understanding of the physical causes, ecological responses and societal consequences of past climatic changes, however, demands highly-resolved, spatially-explicit, seasonally-defined and absolutely-dated archives over the entire period in question. Continuous efforts to improve existing proxy records and reconstruction methods and to develop new ones, as well as clear communication of all uncertainties (within and beyond academia) must be central tasks for the paleoclimate community.
|
|
| 5. |
- Büntgen, Ulf, et al.
(författare)
-
Reply to 'Limited Late Antique cooling'
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Nature Geoscience. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1752-0894 .- 1752-0908. ; 10:4, s. 243-243
-
Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
|
|
| 6. |
- Charpentier Ljungqvist, Fredrik, et al.
(författare)
-
European warm-season temperature and hydroclimate since 850 CE
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 14:8
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The long-term relationship between temperature and hydroclimate has remained uncertain due to the short length of instrumental measurements and inconsistent results from climate model simulations. This lack of understanding is particularly critical with regard to projected drought and flood risks. Here we assess warm-season co-variability patterns between temperature and hydroclimate over Europe back to 850 CE using instrumental measurements, tree-ring based reconstructions, and climate model simulations. We find that the temperature-hydroclimate relationship in both the instrumental and reconstructed data turns more positive at lower frequencies, but less so in model simulations, with a dipole emerging between positive (warm and wet) and negative (warm and dry) associations in northern and southern Europe, respectively. Compared to instrumental data, models reveal a more negative co-variability across all timescales, while reconstructions exhibit a more positive co-variability. Despite the observed differences in the temperature-hydroclimate co-variability patterns in instrumental, reconstructed and model simulated data, we find that all data types share relatively similar phase-relationships between temperature and hydroclimate, indicating the common influence of external forcing. The co-variability between temperature and soil moisture in the model simulations is overestimated, implying a possible overestimation of temperature-driven future drought risks.
|
|
| 7. |
|
|
| 8. |
- Klages, J. P., et al.
(författare)
-
Temperate rainforests near the South Pole during peak Cretaceous warmth
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 580:7801, s. 81-86
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The mid-Cretaceous period was one of the warmest intervals of the past 140millionyears1–5, driven by atmospheric carbon dioxide levels of around 1,000parts per million by volume6. In the near absence of proximal geological records from south of the Antarctic Circle, it is disputed whether polar ice could exist under such environmental conditions. Here we use a sedimentary sequence recovered from the West Antarctic shelf—the southernmost Cretaceous record reported so far—and show that a temperate lowland rainforest environment existed at a palaeolatitude of about 82°S during the Turonian–Santonian age (92 to 83millionyearsago). This record contains an intact 3-metre-long network of in situ fossil roots embedded in a mudstone matrix containing diverse pollen and spores. A climate model simulation shows that the reconstructed temperate climate at this high latitude requires a combination of both atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations of 1,120–1,680parts per million by volume and a vegetated land surface without major Antarctic glaciation, highlighting the important cooling effect exerted by ice albedo under high levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. © 2020, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
|
|
