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  • Barber, R. M., et al. (författare)
  • Healthcare Access and Quality Index based on mortality from causes amenable to personal health care in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015: a novel analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier BV. - 0140-6736. ; 390:10091, s. 231-266
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. Methods We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure-the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index-on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r= 0.88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r= 0.83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r= 0.77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time. Findings Between 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28.6 to 94.6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among lowest-SDI countries. While the global HAQ Index average rose from 40.7 (95% uncertainty interval, 39.0-42.8) in 1990 to 53.7 (52.2-55.4) in 2015, far less progress occurred in narrowing the gap between observed HAQ Index values and maximum levels achieved; at the global level, the difference between the observed and frontier HAQ Index only decreased from 21.2 in 1990 to 20.1 in 2015. If every country and territory had achieved the highest observed HAQ Index by their corresponding level of SDI, the global average would have been 73.8 in 2015. Several countries, particularly in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa, reached HAQ Index values similar to or beyond their development levels, whereas others, namely in southern sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and south Asia, lagged behind what geographies of similar development attained between 1990 and 2015. Interpretation This novel extension of the GBD Study shows the untapped potential for personal health-care access and quality improvement across the development spectrum. Amid substantive advances in personal health care at the national level, heterogeneous patterns for individual causes in given countries or territories suggest that few places have consistently achieved optimal health-care access and quality across health-system functions and therapeutic areas. This is especially evident in middle-SDI countries, many of which have recently undergone or are currently experiencing epidemiological transitions. The HAQ Index, if paired with other measures of health-systemcharacteristics such as intervention coverage, could provide a robust avenue for tracking progress on universal health coverage and identifying local priorities for strengthening personal health-care quality and access throughout the world. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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  • Barber, R. M., et al. (författare)
  • Healthcare access and quality index based on mortality from causes amenable to personal health care in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015 : A novel analysis from the global burden of disease study 2015
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Lancet Publishing Group. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10091, s. 231-266
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. Methods We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure-the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index-on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r=0·88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r=0·83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r=0·77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time. Findings Between 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28·6 to 94·6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among lowest-SDI countries. While the global HAQ Index average rose from 40·7 (95% uncertainty interval, 39·0-42·8) in 1990 to 53·7 (52·2-55·4) in 2015, far less progress occurred in narrowing the gap between observed HAQ Index values and maximum levels achieved; at the global level, the difference between the observed and frontier HAQ Index only decreased from 21·2 in 1990 to 20·1 in 2015. If every country and territory had achieved the highest observed HAQ Index by their corresponding level of SDI, the global average would have been 73·8 in 2015. Several countries, particularly in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa, reached HAQ Index values similar to or beyond their development levels, whereas others, namely in southern sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and south Asia, lagged behind what geographies of similar development attained between 1990 and 2015. Interpretation This novel extension of the GBD Study shows the untapped potential for personal health-care access and quality improvement across the development spectrum. Amid substantive advances in personal health care at the national level, heterogeneous patterns for individual causes in given countries or territories suggest that few places have consistently achieved optimal health-care access and quality across health-system functions and therapeutic areas. This is especially evident in middle-SDI countries, many of which have recently undergone or are currently experiencing epidemiological transitions. The HAQ Index, if paired with other measures of health-system characteristics such as intervention coverage, could provide a robust avenue for tracking progress on universal health coverage and identifying local priorities for strengthening personal health-care quality and access throughout the world. Copyright © The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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  • Roth, G. A., et al. (författare)
  • Global, Regional, and National Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases for 10 Causes, 1990 to 2015
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Journal of the American College of Cardiology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0735-1097 .- 1558-3597. ; 70:1, s. 1-25
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND The burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) remains unclear in many regions of the world. OBJECTIVES The GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2015 study integrated data on disease incidence, prevalence, and mortality to produce consistent, up-to-date estimates for cardiovascular burden. METHODS CVD mortality was estimated from vital registration and verbal autopsy data. CVD prevalence was estimated using modeling software and data from health surveys, prospective cohorts, health system administrative data, and registries. Years lived with disability (YLD) were estimated by multiplying prevalence by disability weights. Years of life lost (YLL) were estimated by multiplying age-specific CVD deaths by a reference life expectancy. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. RESULTS In 2015, there were an estimated 422.7 million cases of CVD (95% uncertainty interval: 415.53 to 427.87 million cases) and 17.92 million CVD deaths (95% uncertainty interval: 17.59 to 18.28 million CVD deaths). Declines in the age-standardized CVD death rate occurred between 1990 and 2015 in all high-income and some middle-income countries. Ischemic heart disease was the leading cause of CVD health lost globally, as well as in each world region, followed by stroke. As SDI increased beyond 0.25, the highest CVD mortality shifted from women to men. CVD mortality decreased sharply for both sexes in countries with an SDI > 0.75. CONCLUSIONS CVDs remain a major cause of health loss for all regions of the world. Sociodemographic change over the past 25 years has been associated with dramatic declines in CVD in regions with very high SDI, but only a gradual decrease or no change in most regions. Future updates of the GBD study can be used to guide policymakers who are focused on reducing the overall burden of noncommunicable disease and achieving specific global health targets for CVD. (C) 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier on behalf of the American College of Cardiology Foundation.
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  • Lozano, Rafael, et al. (författare)
  • Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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  • 2019
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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  • Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
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  • Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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  • Murray, Christopher J. L., et al. (författare)
  • Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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  • Wang, Haidong, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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24.
  • Feigin, Valery L., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990–2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Lancet Neurology. - : Elsevier. - 1474-4422 .- 1474-4465. ; 18:5, s. 459-480
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders.Methods: We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach.Findings: Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247–308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8–9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34–44] and DALYs by 15% [9–21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26–30] and DALYs by 27% [24–31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6–46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7–20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0–12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6–10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05–1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5–90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8–35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8–17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable).Interpretation: Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies.Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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25.
  • Griswold, Max G., et al. (författare)
  • Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 392:10152, s. 1015-1035
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.Methods: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.Findings: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week.Interpretation: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.
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26.
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27.
  • Khalil, Ibrahim, et al. (författare)
  • Burden of Diarrhea in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990-2013 : Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. - : American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. - 1476-1645 .- 0002-9637. ; 95:6, s. 1319-1329
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Diarrheal diseases (DD) are leading causes of disease burden, death, and disability, especially in children in low-income settings. DD can also impact a child's potential livelihood through stunted physical growth, cognitive impairment, and other sequelae. As part of the Global Burden of Disease Study, we estimated DD burden, and the burden attributable to specific risk factors and particular etiologies, in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) between 1990 and 2013. For both sexes and all ages, we calculated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which are the sum of years of life lost and years lived with disability. We estimate that over 125,000 deaths (3.6% of total deaths) were due to DD in the EMR in 2013, with a greater burden of DD in low- and middle-income countries. Diarrhea deaths per 100,000 children under 5 years of age ranged from one (95% uncertainty interval [UI] = 0-1) in Bahrain and Oman to 471 (95% UI = 245-763) in Somalia. The pattern for diarrhea DALYs among those under 5 years of age closely followed that for diarrheal deaths. DALYs per 100,000 ranged from 739 (95% UI = 520-989) in Syria to 40,869 (95% UI = 21,540-65,823) in Somalia. Our results highlighted a highly inequitable burden of DD in EMR, mainly driven by the lack of access to proper resources such as water and sanitation. Our findings will guide preventive and treatment interventions which are based on evidence and which follow the ultimate goal of reducing the DD burden.
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28.
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29.
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30.
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31.
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32.
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33.
  • Lin, Jian-Bin, et al. (författare)
  • A scalable metal-organic framework as a durable physisorbent for carbon dioxide capture
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science. - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 374:6574, s. 1464-1469
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) as solid sorbents for carbon dioxide (CO2) capture face the challenge of merging efficient capture with economical regeneration in a durable, scalable material. Zinc-based Calgary Framework 20 (CALF-20) physisorbs CO2 with high capacity but is also selective over water. Competitive separations on structured CALF-20 show not just preferential CO2 physisorption below 40% relative humidity but also suppression of water sorption by CO2, which was corroborated by computational modeling. CALF-20 has a low enthalpic regeneration penalty and shows durability to steam (>450,000 cycles) and wet acid gases. It can be prepared in one step, formed as composite materials, and its synthesis can be scaled to multikilogram batches.  
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34.
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35.
  • Traylor, Matthew, et al. (författare)
  • Genetic Variation at 16q24.2 is associated with small vessel stroke.
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Annals of neurology. - : Wiley. - 1531-8249 .- 0364-5134. ; 81:3, s. 383-394
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have been successful at identifying associations with stroke and stroke subtypes, but have not yet identified any associations solely with small vessel stroke (SVS). SVS comprises a quarter of all ischaemic stroke and is a major manifestation of cerebral small vessel disease, the primary cause of vascular cognitive impairment. Studies across neurological traits have shown younger onset cases have an increased genetic burden. We leveraged this increased genetic burden by performing an age-at-onset informed GWAS meta-analysis, including a large younger onset SVS population, to identify novel associations with stroke.We used a three-stage age-at-onset informed GWAS to identify novel genetic variants associated with stroke. On identifying a novel locus associated with SVS, we assessed its influence on other small vessel disease phenotypes, as well as on mRNA expression of nearby genes, and on DNA methylation of nearby CpG sites in whole blood and in the fetal brain.We identified an association with SVS in 4,203 cases and 50,728 controls on chromosome 16q24.2 (OR(95% CI)=1.16(1.10-1.22); p=3.2x10(-9) ). The lead SNP (rs12445022) was also associated with cerebral white matter hyperintensities (OR(95% CI)=1.10(1.05-1.16); p=5.3x10(-5) ; N=3,670), but not intracerebral haemorrhage (OR(95% CI)=0.97(0.84-1.12); p=0.71; 1,545 cases, 1,481 controls). rs12445022 is associated with mRNA expression of ZCCHC14 in arterial tissues (p=9.4x10(-7) ), and DNA methylation at probe cg16596957 in whole blood (p=5.3x10(-6) ).16q24.2 is associated with SVS. Associations of the locus with expression of ZCCHC14 and DNA methylation suggest the locus acts through changes to regulatory elements. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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36.
  • Campbell, L, et al. (författare)
  • Intimate Partner Violence During COVID-19 Restrictions: A Study of 30 Countries From the I-SHARE Consortium
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Journal of interpersonal violence. - : SAGE Publications. - 1552-6518 .- 0886-2605. ; 38:11-12, s. 7115-7142
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Intimate partner violence (IPV) causes substantial physical and psychological trauma. Restrictions introduced in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, including lockdowns and movement restrictions, may exacerbate IPV risk and reduce access to IPV support services. This cross-sectional study examines IPV during COVID-19 restrictions in 30 countries from the International Sexual HeAlth and REproductive Health (I-SHARE) study conducted from July 20th, 2020, to February, 15th, 2021. IPV was a primary outcome measure adapted from a World Health Organization multicountry survey. Mixed-effects modeling was used to determine IPV correlates among participants stratified by cohabitation status. The sample included 23,067 participants from 30 countries. A total of 1,070/15,336 (7.0%) participants stated that they experienced IPV during COVID-19 restrictions. A total of 1,486/15,336 (9.2%) participants stated that they had experienced either physical or sexual partner violence before the restrictions, which then decreased to 1,070 (7.0%) after the restrictions. In general, identifying as a sexual minority and experiencing greater economic vulnerability were associated with higher odds of experiencing IPV during COVID-19 restrictions, which were accentuated among participants who were living with their partners. Greater stringency of COVID-19 restrictions and living in urban or semi-urban areas were associated with lower odds of experiencing IPV in some settings. The I-SHARE data suggest a substantial burden of IPV during COVID-19 restrictions. However, the restrictions were correlated with reduced IPV in some settings. There is a need for investing in specific support systems for survivors of IPV during the implementation of restrictions designed to contain infectious disease outbreaks.
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37.
  • Dahdouh-Guebas, Farid, et al. (författare)
  • Analysing ethnobotanical and fishery-related importance of mangroves of the East-Godavari Delta (Andhra Pradesh, India) for conservation and management purposes
  • 2006
  • Ingår i: Journal of Ethnobiology and Ethnomedicine. - London : Biomed Central. - 1746-4269. ; 2, s. 24-
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Mangrove forests, though essentially common and wide-spread, are highly threatened. Local societies along with their knowledge about the mangrove also are endangered, while they are still underrepresented as scientific research topics. With the present study we document local utilization patterns, and perception of ecosystem change. We illustrate how information generated by ethnobiological research can be used to strengthen the management of the ecosystem. This study was conducted in the Godavari mangrove forest located in the East-Godavari District of the state Andhra Pradesh in India, where mangroves have been degrading due to over-exploitation, extensive development of aquaculture, and pollution from rural and urbanized areas (Kakinada).One hundred interviews were carried out among the fisherfolk population present in two mangrove zones in the study area, a wildlife sanctuary with strong conservation status and an adjacent zone. Results from the interviews indicated that Avicennia marina (Forsk.) Vierh., a dominant species in the Godavari mangroves, is used most frequently as firewood and for construction. Multiple products of the mangrove included the bark of Ceriops decandra (Griff.) Ding Hou to dye the fishing nets and improve their durability, the bark of Aegiceras corniculatum (L.) Blanco to poison and catch fish, and the leaves of Avicennia spp. and Excoecaria agallocha L. as fodder for cattle. No medicinal uses of true mangrove species were reported, but there were a few traditional uses for mangrove associates. Utilization patterns varied in the two zones that we investigated, most likely due to differences in their ecology and legal status. The findings are discussed in relation with the demographic and socio-economic traits of the fisherfolk communities of the Godavari mangroves and indicate a clear dependency of their livelihood on the mangrove forest.Reported changes in the Godavari mangrove cover also differed in the two zones, with significantly less perceptions of a decrease in the protected area, as compared to the adjacent non-protected area. A posteriori comparisons between sequential satellite imagery (retrospective till 1977) and respondents that were at least 15 years back then, revealed a mangrove decrease which was however perceived to different extents depending on the area with which the fishermen were familiar. While local needs had not been incorporated in the existing policy, we created a framework on how data on ethnobotanical traditions, fishery-related activities and local people's perceptions of change can be incorporated into management strategies.
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38.
  • Elyajouri, Meriem, et al. (författare)
  • PDRs4All V. Modelling the dust evolution across the illuminated edge of the Orion Bar
  • 2024
  • Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 685
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Context. Interstellar dust particles, in particular carbonaceous nano-grains (like polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, fullerenes, and amorphous hydrogenated carbon), are critical players for the composition, energy budget, and dynamics of the interstellar medium (ISM). The dust properties, specifically the composition and size of dust grains are not static; instead, they exhibit considerable evolution triggered by variations in local physical conditions such as the density and gas temperature within the ISM, as is the case in photon-dominated regions (PDRs). The evolution of dust and its impact on the local physical and chemical conditions is thus a key question for understanding the first stages of star formation. Aims. From the extensive spectral and imaging data of the JWST PDRs4All program, we study the emission of dust grains within the Orion Bar – a well-known, highly far-UV (FUV)-irradiated PDR situated at the intersection between cold, dense molecular clouds, and warm ionized regions. The Orion Bar because of its edge-on geometry provides an exceptional benchmark for characterizing dust evolution and the associated driving processes under varying physical conditions. Our goal is to constrain the local properties of dust by comparing its emission to models. Taking advantage of the recent JWST data, in particular the spectroscopy of dust emission, we identify new constraints on dust and further previous works of dust modelling. Methods. To characterize interstellar dust across the Orion Bar, we follow its emission as traced by JWST NIRCam (at 3.35 and 4.8 µm) and MIRI (at 7.7, 11.3, 15.0, and 25.5 µm) broad band images, along with NIRSpec and MRS spectroscopic observations. First, we constrain the minimum size and hydrogen content of carbon nano-grains from a comparison between the observed dust emission spectra and the predictions of the Heterogeneous dust Evolution Model for Interstellar Solids (THEMIS) coupled to the numerical code DustEM. Using this dust model, we then perform 3D radiative transfer simulations of dust emission with the SOC code (Scattering with OpenCL) and compare to data obtained along well chosen profiles across the Orion Bar. Results. The JWST data allows us, for the first time, to spatially resolve the steep variation of dust emission at the illuminated edge of the Orion Bar PDR. By considering a dust model with carbonaceous nano-grains and submicronic coated silicate grains, we derive unprecedented constraints on the properties of across the Orion Bar. To explain the observed emission profiles with our simulations, we find that the nano-grains must be strongly depleted with an abundance (relative to the gas) 15 times less than in the diffuse ISM. The NIRSpec and MRS spectroscopic observations reveal variations in the hydrogenation of the carbon nano-grains. The lowest hydrogenation levels are found in the vicinity of the illuminating stars suggesting photo-processing while more hydrogenated nano-grains are found in the cold and dense molecular region, potentially indicative of larger grains.
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39.
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40.
  • Hudelja, H., et al. (författare)
  • Freeze-casting of highly porous cellulose-nanofiber-reinforced γ˗Al2O3 monoliths
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Open Ceramics. - : Elsevier. - 2666-5395. ; 5
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Freeze-casting is a powerful consolidation technique for the fabrication of highly porous and layered-hybrid materials, including ceramic-metal composites, and porous scaffolds for catalysis, bone substitutes and high-performance membranes. The aqueous suspensions to be freeze-casted usually contain dense particles facilitating macroporous, layered ceramics with dense (nonporous) struts. In the present study, hierarchical macro-mesoporous alumina (HMMA) monoliths were successfully prepared by freeze-casting of aqueous suspensions containing hierarchically-assembled, mesoporous γ‒Al2O3 (MA) powder and cellulose nanofibers (CNF). As-prepared monoliths were ultra-porous (93.1‒99.2 %), had low densities (0.01‒0.25 g/cm3), and displayed relatively high surface areas (91‒134 m2/g), but were still remarkably rigid with high compressive strengths (up to 52 kPa). Owing to the columnar porosity and mesoporous nature of the struts the freeze-casted HMMA monoliths exhibited high permeability and high thermal insulation, the latter ranging from 0.039 W/m∙K to 0.071 W/m∙K, depending on pore orientation.
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41.
  • Hüpers, Andre, et al. (författare)
  • Release of mineral-bound water prior to subduction tied to shallow seismogenic slip off Sumatra
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 356:6340, s. 841-844
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Plate-boundary fault rupture during the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman subduction earthquake extended closer to the trench than expected, increasing earthquake and tsunami size. International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 362 sampled incoming sediments offshore northern Sumatra, revealing recent release of fresh water within the deep sediments. Thermal modeling links this freshening to amorphous silica dehydration driven by rapid burial-induced temperature increases in the past 9 million years. Complete dehydration of silicates is expected before plate subduction, contrasting with prevailing models for subduction seismogenesis calling for fluid production during subduction. Shallow slip offshore Sumatra appears driven by diagenetic strengthening of deeply buried fault-forming sediments, contrasting with weakening proposed for the shallow Tohoku-Oki 2011 rupture, but our results are applicable to other thickly sedimented subduction zones including those with limited earthquake records.
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42.
  • Kals, Mart, et al. (författare)
  • A genome-wide association study of outcome from traumatic brain injury
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: EBioMedicine. - : Elsevier. - 2352-3964. ; 77
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Factors such as age, pre-injury health, and injury severity, account for less than 35% of outcome variability in traumatic brain injury (TBI). While some residual outcome variability may be attributable to genetic factors, published candidate gene association studies have often been underpowered and subject to publication bias.METHODS: We performed the first genome- and transcriptome-wide association studies (GWAS, TWAS) of genetic effects on outcome in TBI. The study population consisted of 5268 patients from prospective European and US studies, who attended hospital within 24 h of TBI, and satisfied local protocols for computed tomography.FINDINGS: The estimated heritability of TBI outcome was 0·26. GWAS revealed no genetic variants with genome-wide significance (p < 5 × 10-8), but identified 83 variants in 13 independent loci which met a lower pre-specified sub-genomic statistical threshold (p < 10-5). Similarly, none of the genes tested in TWAS met tissue-wide significance. An exploratory analysis of 75 published candidate variants associated with 28 genes revealed one replicable variant (rs1800450 in the MBL2 gene) which retained significance after correction for multiple comparison (p = 5·24 × 10-4).INTERPRETATION: While multiple novel loci reached less stringent thresholds, none achieved genome-wide significance. The overall heritability estimate, however, is consistent with the hypothesis that common genetic variation substantially contributes to inter-individual variability in TBI outcome. The meta-analytic approach to the GWAS and the availability of summary data allows for a continuous extension with additional cohorts as data becomes available.FUNDING: A full list of funding bodies that contributed to this study can be found in the Acknowledgements section.
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43.
  • Matus, M., et al. (författare)
  • Key Comparison EURAMET.L-K1.2011 Measurement of gauge blocks by interferometry
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Metrologia. - 0026-1394 .- 1681-7575. ; 53:1A
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The key comparison EURAMET.L-K1.2011 on gauge blocks was carried out in the framework of a EURAMET project starting in 2012 and ending in 2015. It involved the participation of 24 National Metrology Institutes from Europe and Egypt, respectively. 38 gauge blocks of steel and ceramic with nominal central lengths between 0.5 mm and 500 mm were circulated. The comparison was conducted in two loops with two sets of artifacts. A statistical technique for linking the reference values was applied. As a consequence the reference value of one loop is influenced by the measurements of the other loop although they did not even see the artifacts of the others. This influence comes solely from three "linking laboratories" which measure both sets of artifacts. In total there were 44 results were not fully consistent with the reference values. This represents 10% of the full set of 420 results which is a considerable high number. At least 12 of them are clearly outliers where the participants have been informed by the pilot as soon as possible. The comparison results help to support the calibration and measurement capabilities (CMCs) of the laboratories involved in the CIPM MRA.
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44.
  • McNeill, Lisa C., et al. (författare)
  • Understanding Himalayan erosion and the significance of the Nicobar Fan
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Earth and Planetary Science Letters. - : Elsevier BV. - 0012-821X .- 1385-013X. ; 475, s. 134-142
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • A holistic view of the Bengal-Nicobar Fan system requires sampling the full sedimentary section of the Nicobar Fan, which was achieved for the first time by International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 362 west of North Sumatra. We identified a distinct rise in sediment accumulation rate (SAR) beginning similar to 9.5 Ma and reaching 250-350 m/Myr in the 9.5-2 Ma interval, which equal or far exceed rates on the Bengal Fan at similar latitudes. This marked rise in SAR and a constant Himalayan-derived provenance necessitates a major restructuring of sediment routing in the Bengal-Nicobar submarine fan. This coincides with the inversion of the Eastern Himalayan Shillong Plateau and encroachment of the west-propagating Indo-Burmese wedge, which reduced continental accommodation space and increased sediment supply directly to the fan. Our results challenge a commonly held view that changes in sediment flux seen in the Bengal-Nicobar submarine fan were caused by discrete tectonic or climatic events acting on the Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau. Instead, an interplay of tectonic and climatic processes caused the fan system to develop by punctuated changes rather than gradual progradation.
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45.
  • Meyer, E., et al. (författare)
  • The state of the art in beyond 5G distributed massive multiple-input multiple-output communication system solutions
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Open Research Europe. - : F1000 Research Ltd. - 2732-5121. ; 2
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Beyond fifth generation (5G) communication systems aim towards data rates in the tera bits per second range, with improved and flexible coverage options, introducing many new technological challenges in the fields of network architecture, signal pro- cessing, and radio frequency front-ends. One option is to move towards cell-free, or distributed massive Multiple-Input Multiple-Output (MIMO) network architectures and highly integrated front-end solutions. This paper presents an outlook on be- yond 5G distributed massive MIMO communication systems, the signal processing, characterisation and simulation challenges, and an overview of the state of the art in millimetre wave antennas and electronics.
  •  
46.
  • Nishikubo, Nobuyuki, et al. (författare)
  • Xyloglucan endo-transglycosylase (XET) functions in gelatinous layers of tension wood fibers in poplar - A glimpse into the mechanism of the balancing act of trees
  • 2007
  • Ingår i: Plant and Cell Physiology. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0032-0781 .- 1471-9053. ; 48:6, s. 843-855
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Tension wood is a specialized tissue of deciduous trees that functions in bending woody stems to optimize their position in space. Tension wood fibers that develop on one side of the stem have an increased potency to shrink compared with fibers on the opposite side, thus creating a bending moment. It is believed that the gelatinous (G) cell wall layer containing almost pure cellulose of tension wood fibers is pivotal to their shrinking. By analyzing saccharide composition and linkage in isolated G-layers of poplar, we found that they contain some matrix components in addition to cellulose, of which xyloglucan is the most abundant. Xyloglucan, xyloglucan endo-transglycosylase (XET) activity and xyloglucan endo-transglycosylase/hydrolase (XTH) gene products were detected in developing G-layers by labeling using CCRC-M1 monoclonal antibody, in situ incorporation of XXXG-SR and the polyclonal antibody to poplar PttXET16-34, respectively, indicating that xyloglucan is incorporated into the G-layer during its development. Moreover, several XTH transcripts were altered and were generally up-regulated in developing tension wood compared with normal wood. In mature G-fibers, XTH gene products were detected in the G-layers while the XET activity was evident in the adjacent S-2 wall layer. We propose that XET activity is essential for G-fiber shrinking by repairing xyloglucan cross-links between G- and S-2-layers and thus maintaining their contact. Surprisingly, XTH gene products and XET activity persisted in mature G-fibers for several years, suggesting that the enzyme functions after cell death repairing the cross-links as they are being broken during the shrinking process.
  •  
47.
  • Onishchenko, OG, et al. (författare)
  • Nonlinear ion-drift waves in a nonuniform plasma with nonzero ion-temperature-gradient effects
  • 2001
  • Ingår i: PHYSICS OF PLASMAS. - : AMER INST PHYSICS. - 1070-664X. ; 8:1, s. 59-66 Language: English
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • It is shown that Grad hydrodynamics dan be used for the description of nonlinear ion-drift waves in a low beta plasma. The set of nonlinear equations which allows us to describe both the ion polarization drift and the nonzero ion Larmor;radius effects is
  •  
48.
  • Pickering, Kevin T., et al. (författare)
  • Sedimentology, stratigraphy and architecture of the Nicobar Fan (Bengal-Nicobar Fan System), Indian Ocean : Results from International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 362
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Sedimentology. - : Wiley. - 0037-0746 .- 1365-3091. ; 67:5, s. 2248-2281
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Drill sites in the southern Bay of Bengal at 3 degrees N 91 degrees E (International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 362) have sampled for the first time a complete section of the Nicobar Fan and below to the oceanic crust. This generally overlooked part of the Bengal-Nicobar Fan System may provide new insights into uplift and denudation rates of the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau. The Nicobar Fan comprises sediment gravity-flow deposits, mostly turbidites, that alternate with hemipelagite drapes and pelagite intervals of varying thicknesses. The decimetre-thick to metre-thick oldest pre-fan sediments (limestones/chalks) dated at 69 Ma are overlain by volcanic material and slowly accumulated pelagites (0.5 g cm(-2) kyr(-1)). At Expedition 362 Site U1480, terrigenous input began in the early Miocene at ca 22.5 Ma as muds, overlain by very thin-bedded and thin-bedded muddy turbidites at ca 19.5 Ma. From 9.5 Ma, sand content and sediment supply sharply increase (from 1-5 to 10-50 g cm(-2) kyr(-1)). Despite the abundant normal faulting in the Nicobar Fan compared with the Bengal Fan, it offers a better-preserved and more homogeneous sedimentary record with fewer unconformities. The persistent connection between the two fans ceased at 0.28 Ma when the Nicobar Fan became inactive. The Nicobar Fan is a major sink for Himalaya-derived material. This study presents integrated results of International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 362 with older Deep Sea Drilling Project/Ocean Drilling Program/International Ocean Discovery Program sites that show that the Bengal-Nicobar Fan System experienced successive large-scale avulsion processes that switched sediment supply between the Bengal Fan (middle Miocene and late Pleistocene) and the Nicobar Fan (late Miocene to early Pleistocene). A quantitative analysis of the submarine channels of the Nicobar Fan is also presented, including their stratigraphic frequency, showing that channel size/area and abundance peaked at ca 2 to 3 Ma, but with a distinct low at 3 to 7 Ma: the intervening stratigraphic unit was a time of reduced sediment accumulation rates.
  •  
49.
  • Piens, Kathleen, et al. (författare)
  • Glycosynthase activity of hybrid aspen xyloglucan endo-transglycosylase PttXET16-34 nucleophile mutants
  • 2007
  • Ingår i: Organic and Biomolecular Chemistry. - : Royal Society of Chemistry (RSC). - 1477-0520 .- 1477-0539. ; 5:24
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Glycosynthases are active-site mutants of glycoside hydrolases that catalyse glycosyl transfer using suitable activated donor substrates without competing product hydrolysis ( S. M. Hancock, M. D. Vaughan and S. G. Withers, Curr. Opin. Chem. Biol., 2006, 10, 509-519). Site-directed mutagenesis of the catalytic nucleophile, Glu-85, of a Populus tremula x tremuloides xyloglucan endo-transglycosylase (PttXET16-34, EC 2.4.1.207) into alanine, glycine, and serine yielded enzymes with glycosynthase activity. Product analysis indicated that PttXET16-34 E85A in particular was able to catalyse regio- and stereospecific homo- and hetero- condensations of alpha-xylogluco-oligosaccharyl fluoride donors XXXG alpha F andXLLG alpha F to produce xyloglucans with regular sidechain substitution patterns. This substrate promiscuity contrasts that of the Humicola insolens Ce17B E197A glycosynthase, which was not able to polymerise the di-galactosylated substrate XLLG alpha F. The production of the PttXET16-34 E85A xyloglucosynthase thus expands the repertoire of glycosynthases to include those capable of synthesising structurally homogenenous xyloglucans
  •  
50.
  • Rannikmaee, Kristiina, et al. (författare)
  • Common variation in COL4A1/COL4A2 is associated with sporadic cerebral small vessel disease
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Neurology. - 1526-632X. ; 84:9, s. 918-926
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objectives:We hypothesized that common variants in the collagen genes COL4A1/COL4A2 are associated with sporadic forms of cerebral small vessel disease.Methods:We conducted meta-analyses of existing genotype data among individuals of European ancestry to determine associations of 1,070 common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the COL4A1/COL4A2 genomic region with the following: intracerebral hemorrhage and its subtypes (deep, lobar) (1,545 cases, 1,485 controls); ischemic stroke and its subtypes (cardioembolic, large vessel disease, lacunar) (12,389 cases, 62,004 controls); and white matter hyperintensities (2,733 individuals with ischemic stroke and 9,361 from population-based cohorts with brain MRI data). We calculated a statistical significance threshold that accounted for multiple testing and linkage disequilibrium between SNPs (p < 0.000084).Results:Three intronic SNPs in COL4A2 were significantly associated with deep intracerebral hemorrhage (lead SNP odds ratio [OR] 1.29, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.14-1.46, p = 0.00003; r(2) > 0.9 between SNPs). Although SNPs associated with deep intracerebral hemorrhage did not reach our significance threshold for association with lacunar ischemic stroke (lead SNP OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.03-1.18, p = 0.0073), and with white matter hyperintensity volume in symptomatic ischemic stroke patients (lead SNP OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.01-1.13, p = 0.016), the direction of association was the same. There was no convincing evidence of association with white matter hyperintensities in population-based studies or with non-small vessel disease cerebrovascular phenotypes.Conclusions:Our results indicate an association between common variation in the COL4A2 gene and symptomatic small vessel disease, particularly deep intracerebral hemorrhage. These findings merit replication studies, including in ethnic groups of non-European ancestry.
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