| 1. |
- Bampa, Maria, et al.
(författare)
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EpidRLearn : Learning Intervention Strategies for Epidemics with Reinforcement Learning
- 2022
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Ingår i: Artificial Intelligence in Medicine. - Cham : Springer Nature. - 9783031093425 ; , s. 189-199
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Epidemics of infectious diseases can pose a serious threat to public health and the global economy. Despite scientific advances, containment and mitigation of infectious diseases remain a challenging task. In this paper, we investigate the potential of reinforcement learning as a decision making tool for epidemic control by constructing a deep Reinforcement Learning simulator, called EpidRLearn, composed of a contact-based, age-structured extension of the SEIR compartmental model, referred to as C-SEIR. We evaluate EpidRLearn by comparing the learned policies to two deterministic policy baselines. We further assess our reward function by integrating an alternative reward into our deep RL model. The experimental evaluation indicates that deep reinforcement learning has the potential of learning useful policies under complex epidemiological models and large state spaces for the mitigation of infectious diseases, with a focus on COVID-19.
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| 2. |
- Bohman, Samuel, et al.
(författare)
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A Web-Based Visualization Tool for Exploring Stakeholder Conflicts in Land Use Planning
- 2019
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Ingår i: Transactions on GIS. - : Wiley. - 1361-1682 .- 1467-9671. ; 23:4, s. 769-785
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This article describes an open source Web-based visualization tool for exploring stakeholder conflicts in land use planning. It implements a multi-criteria decision analytic framework which solves a conflict constrained knapsack problem in order to find Pareto efficient combinations of actions which maximize public value given the conflict constraint. The user interface is centered around an interactive map in which geographical subareas are color shaded in proportion to the mean strength of preference for a particular chosen action within the population in the selected area. The overarching aim of this work is to investigate the use of Web technologies and formal problem-solving methods for improving public participation in land use planning and support local governments in the pursuit of improved decision making. The tool was developed using the free statistical programming language R and the web application framework Shiny. Its usefulness is demonstrated through a case study in Upplands Väsby municipality in Stockholm County, Sweden. The article ends with a summary together with some ideas for future research and development.
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| 3. |
- Daikeler, Thomas, et al.
(författare)
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Secondary autoimmune diseases occurring after HSCT for an autoimmune disease: a retrospective study of the EBMT Autoimmune Disease Working Party.
- 2011
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Ingår i: Blood. - : American Society of Hematology. - 1528-0020 .- 0006-4971. ; Aug 11:118(6), s. 1693-8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To specify incidence and risk factors for secondary autoimmune diseases (AD) after HSCT for a primary AD, we retrospectively analysed AD patients treated by HSCT reported to EBMT from 1995 to 2009 with at least one secondary AD (cases) and those without (controls). After autologous HSCT, 29 amongst 347 patients developed at least one secondary AD within 21.9 (0.6-49) months and after allogeneic HSCT, 3 amongst 16 patients. The observed secondary AD included: autoimmune hemolytic anemia (n=3), acquired haemophilia (n=3), autoimmune thrombocytopenia (n=3), antiphospholipid syndrome (n=2), thyroiditis (n=12), blocking TSHR-ab (n=1), Graves' disease (n=2), myasthenia gravis (n=1), rheumatoid arthritis (n=2), sarcoidosis (n=2), vasculitis (n=1), psoriasis (n=1) and psoriatic arthritis (n=1). After autologous HSCT for primary AD, the cumulative incidence of secondary AD was 9.8+/-2 % at 5 years, lupus erythematosus as primary AD and antithymocyte-globulin use plus CD34+ graft selection were important risk factors for secondary AD by multivariate analysis. With a median follow-up of 6.2 (0.54-11) years after autologous HSCT, 26/29 patients with secondary AD were alive, 2 died during their secondary AD (antiphospholipid syndrome, haemophilia) and 1 death was HSCT related. This European multicenter study underlines the need for careful management and follow-up for secondary AD after HSCT.
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| 4. |
- Ekenberg, Love, 1962-, et al.
(författare)
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A Framework for COVID-19 Pandemic Intervention Modelling and Analysis for Policy Formation Support in Botswana
- 2023
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Ingår i: The International Journal on Advances in ICT for Emerging Regions. - : Sri Lanka Journals Online (JOL). - 1800-4156 .- 2550-2794. ; 15:3, s. 46-59
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Syftet med denna forskning var att utveckla ett metodiskt ramverk som skulle kunna tillämpas för policybildning i situationer med en hög nivå av osäkerhet och heterogenitet av befintliga åsikter bland involverade intressenter om riskreducering och hantering såsom covid-19 pandemisk risk. I detta dokument presenterar vi ett sådant ramverk och dess tillämpning för beslutsfattande i Botswana för att mildra covid-19-pandemin. Syftet med den föreslagna modellen är dubbelt: för det första att förse beslutsfattare med tillförlitlig och användbar epidemiologisk modellering eftersom åtgärder för att begränsa spridningen av covid-19-viruset till en början till stor del baserades på olika epidemiologiska riskbedömningar. För det andra, med tanke på att vissa uppsättningar åtgärder som antagits i andra delar av världen successivt medför höga eller till och med mycket höga sociala och ekonomiska kostnader för de länder som antog dessa åtgärder, tillhandahöll vi en beslutsstödsmodell med flera kriterier som kunde användas för att att väga olika politiska tillvägagångssätt för att bekämpa virusspridningen med hänsyn till lokala konsekvensbedömningar inom en mängd olika samhällsområden. Vi beskriver hur utformningen av en nationell covid-19-strategi och policy i Botswana 2020 hjälptes till genom att använda IKT-beslutsstödsmodeller som en viktig informationskälla. Därefter presenterar vi simuleringsmodellen för virusspridning och dess resultat som är kopplade till en multikriteriebeslutsstödsmodell. Slutligen diskuterar vi hur ramverket kan vidareutvecklas för Botswanas behov för att optimera riskhanteringsalternativ vid hantering av covid-19 och andra pandemiscenarier. Det betydande forskningsbidraget är att flytta fram forskningsfronten när det gäller en metodik för att inkludera heterogenitet i åsikter och identifiering av kompromisslösningar i policyrelevanta diskurser under en hög grad av osäkerhet.
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| 5. |
- Ekenberg, Love, et al.
(författare)
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A Multi-Criteria Framework for Pandemic Response Measures
- 2021
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Ingår i: Frontiers In Public Health. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2296-2565. ; 9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In managing the COVID-19 pandemic, several compelling narratives seem to have played a significant role in the decision-making processes regarding which risk mitigation and management measures to implement. Many countries were to a large extent unprepared for such a situation, even though predictions about a significant probability for a pandemic to occur existed, and national governments of several countries often acted in an uncoordinated manner, which resulted in many inconsistencies in the disaster risk reduction processes. Limited evidence has also made room for strategic narratives meant to persuade the public of the chosen set of actions, even though the degree of uncertainty regarding the outcomes of these was high, further complicating the situation. In this article, we assume a normative standpoint regarding rhapsodic decision making and suggest an integrated framework for a more elaborated decision analysis under the ambiguity of how to contain the virus spread from a policy point of view, while considering epidemiologic estimations and socioeconomic factors in a multi-stakeholder-multi-criteria context based on a co-creative work process for eliciting attitudes, perceptions, as well as preferences amongst relevant stakeholder groups. The framework, applied in our paper on Romania for demonstrative purposes, is used for evaluating mitigation measures for catastrophic events such as the COVID-19 situation, to mobilize better response strategies for future scenarios related to pandemics and other hazardous events, as well as to structure the production and analysis of narratives on the current pandemic effects.
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| 6. |
- Ekenberg, Love, et al.
(författare)
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A Multicriteria Approach to Modelling Pandemic Response under Strong Uncertainty : A Case Study in Jordan
- 2022
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Ingår i: Sustainability. - : MDPI AG. - 2071-1050. ; 14:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In responding to the COVID-19 pandemic, evidence-based policymaking and risk mitigation have been confronted with limited decision-making mechanisms under conditions of increased uncertainty. Such methods are particularly called for in contexts where reliable data to a large extent are missing and where the chosen policy would impact a variety of sectors. In this paper, we present an application of an integrated decision-making framework under ambiguity on how to contain the COVID-19 virus spread from a national policy point of view. The framework was applied in Jordan and considered both local epidemiologic and socioeconomic estimates in a multistakeholder multicriteria context. In particular, the cocreation process for eliciting attitudes, perceptions, and preferences amongst relevant stakeholder groups has often been missing from policy response to the pandemic, even though the containment measures' efficiency largely depends on their acceptance by the impacted groups. For this, there exist several methods attempting to elicit criteria weights, values, and probabilities ranging from direct rating and point allocation methods to more elaborated ones. To facilitate the elicitation, some of the approaches utilise elicitation methods whereby prospects are ranked using ordinal importance information, while others use cardinal information. Methods are sometimes assessed in case studies or more formally by utilising systematic simulations. Furthermore, the treatment of corresponding methods for the handling of the alternative's values has sometimes been neglected. We demonstrate in our paper an approach for cardinal ranking in policy decision making in combination with imprecise or incomplete information concerning probabilities, weights, and consequences or alternative values. The results of our cocreation process are aggregated in the evaluation of alternative mitigation measures for Jordan, showcasing how a multistakeholder multicriteria decision mechanism can be employed in current or future challenges of pandemic situations, to facilitate management and mitigation of similar crises in the future, in any region.
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| 7. |
- Ekenberg, Love, et al.
(författare)
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Deliberation, representation, equity : research approaches, tools and algorithms for participatory processes
- 2017
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Bok (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- What can we learn about the development of public interaction in e-democracy from a drama delivered by mobile headphones to an audience standing around a shopping center in a Stockholm suburb? In democratic societies there is widespread acknowledgment of the need to incorporate citizens' input in decision-making processes in more or less structured ways. But participatory decision making is balancing on the borders of inclusion, structure, precision and accuracy. To simply enable more participation will not yield enhanced democracy, and there is a clear need for more elaborated elicitation and decision analytical tools. This rigorous and thought-provoking volume draws on a stimulating variety of international case studies, from flood risk management in the Red River Delta of Vietnam, to the consideration of alternatives to gold mining in Ro?ia Montana in Transylvania, to the application of multi-criteria decision analysis in evaluating the impact of e-learning opportunities at Uganda's Makerere University. Editors Love Ekenberg (senior research scholar, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA], Laxenburg, professor of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University), Karin Hansson (artist and research fellow, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University), Mats Danielson (vice president and professor of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University, affiliate researcher, IIASA) and Göran Cars (professor of Societal Planning and Environment, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm) draw innovative collaborations between mathematics, social science, and the arts. They develop new problem formulations and solutions, with the aim of carrying decisions from agenda setting and problem awareness through to feasible courses of action by setting objectives, alternative generation, consequence assessments, and trade-off clarifications. As a result, this book is important new reading for decision makers in government, public administration and urban planning, as well as students and researchers in the fields of participatory democracy, urban planning, social policy, communication design, participatory art, decision theory, risk analysis and computer and systems sciences.
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| 8. |
- Ekenberg, Love, et al.
(författare)
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Hazards and quality control in humanitarian demining
- 2018
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Ingår i: International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management. - 0265-671X .- 1758-6682. ; 35:4, s. 897-913
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to discuss the adequacy of International Mine Action Standards 09.20 (IMAS 09.20) and the used standards ISO 2859 in the context of demining. Design/methodology/approach: The authors show how the actual quality level acceptable quality limit (AQL) significantly affects the average total quality cost for one lot with a single sampling plan and, consequently, the average total quality cost, and as AQL increases, the cost of rejecting a lot and the cost of sampling increase. Findings: The sampling plans for demining are not always optimal given economical and other concerns and that other mechanisms should be considered. Practical implications: Addressing opportunity costs for adopting wide samplings plans instead of clearing uncleared land per default, as well as balancing producer and consumer consequences seems, therefore, to be highly relevant from a socio-economical perspective. Originality/value The general understanding of quality management and the systems involved are limited within the mine action sector. IMAS and most national mine action standards provide only a fairly narrow description of the issue. This implies that the field is missing opportunities to achieve efficiency and effectiveness, as well as to learn from and improve upon past experiences. The authors demonstrate herein that sampling provides little additional confidence as to whether a particular area is free from explosive hazards and substantial savings can be made compared to the current practice.
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| 9. |
- Ekenberg, Love, et al.
(författare)
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Mitigating Cognitive and Behavioural Biases during Pandemics Responses
- 2021
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Ingår i: Contemporary Issues in Group Decision and Negotiation. - Cham : Springer Science+Business Media B.V.. - 9783030772086 - 9783030772079 ; , s. 3-15
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Many countries seemed to a large extent to have been unprepared for the COVID-19 pandemic and national governments often acted uncoordinated resulting in many inconsistencies in the mitigation processes. The acknowledgement of the multiple factors at stake in handling the crisis has more often than not been omitted from public communication, where public officials’ statements mostly framed the problem unilaterally, basing their narratives on warnings coming from the medical and public health scientific community. In this article, we propose a model for policymaking regarding hazardous events, such as a pandemic, to, in advance, forming better response strategies for future similar scenarios. We describe how an epidemic model can be integrated into a multi-stakeholder multi-criteria framework and how a more integrated analysis can be done, even under significant uncertainties.
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| 10. |
- Fasth, Tobias, et al.
(författare)
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Admissibility concepts for group portfolio decision analysis
- 2013
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Ingår i: Group Decision and Negotiation (GND) 2013: International Conference. - Stockholm : Department of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University. - 9789163734908 ; , s. 445-448
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present complementary decision evaluation methods for group portfolio multi-criteria decision analysis where stakeholders have differing preferences. The approach supports the analysis of a portfolio of actions (or projects) in the case where a large group of stakeholders have inconsistent opinions with respect to performance of each action and the criteria weights. The group of stakeholders is partitioned into two disagreeing groups based upon their views on the actions' performance levels and the portfolio is analyzed using a measure of consensus taking opinions of each stakeholder into account.
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| 11. |
- Fasth, Tobias, 1980-
(författare)
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Decision Analysis in Situations with Conflicting Interests
- 2019
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Decision problems in participatory decision making involve multiple stakeholders, who often have conflicting preferences concerning the actions under consideration. Decision problems such as these can be structured as multi-criteria problems, which enables the actions to be evaluated in terms of more than one single criterion. In these situations, the complexity of the problem increases when the objective is to select a portfolio of actions. Another aspect to take into consideration is that the choice of actions often has a long-term impact on the lives of the stakeholders. It is therefore not surprising that these problems often are sources of costly and time-consuming conflicts.This thesis presents artifacts in the form of methods and applications aiding the decision maker in participatory decision making problems in highlighting stakeholder conflict. The artifacts are DANCE, XPLOR, POLA, and SENS. DANCE is a framework of methods that are used to elicit preferences, and to measure and analyze conflicts between and within stakeholder groups regarding the performance of an action. The framework uses three novel artifacts: i) CAR-CE a method for preference elicitation, ii) two indices, one for measuring the conflict within one stakeholder group, one for measuring the conflict between two stakeholder groups, and iii) an approach to portfolio optimisation and robustness analysis. XPLOR is a web-application that is used to explore and visualise stakeholder conflicts. POLA is a web-application for evaluating commercial development policy in cooperation with key stakeholders. The last artifact, SENSE, is a method for sensitivity analysis of portfolios.The artifact development followed the design science methodology, where the aim of the artifact is to solve a practical problem and where, in this case, the artifacts were evaluated against a set of requirements. The preference elicitation method, CAR-CE, was implemented in a web-questionnaire and was used in a real-world survey in cooperation with Upplands Väsby municipality. The elicited preferences were used in illustrative scenarios to demonstrate both the DANCE framework and XPLOR. POLA was demonstrated in three examples based on results from workshops that were conducted together with the municipalities of Norrköping, Katrineholm and Filipstad. Altogether, these artifacts support decision makers in modeling and analyzing decision problems, with the purpose of avoiding future costly and time-consuming conflicts in land use planning.
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| 12. |
- Fasth, Tobias, et al.
(författare)
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Disagreement Constrained Action Selection in Participatory Portfolio Decision Analysis
- 2016
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Ingår i: International Journal of Innovation, Management and Technology. - : EJournal Publishing. - 2010-0248. ; 7:1, s. 1-7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In some portfolio decision problems it is not possible or interesting to constrain portfolios with a monetary budget. Instead it might be of interest to investigate how disagreement among a group of decision makers or stakeholders can be used as a constraint, and how this affects the portfolio composition. In this paper we present complementary decision evaluation methods for group portfolio decision analysis in situations where the stakeholders have conflicting preferences. The approach supports the analysis of a portfolio of planned actions in urban planning when a large group of stakeholders have inconsistent opinions with respect to the performance of each action. The group of stakeholders is, for each criterion, partitioned into two disagreeing groups based upon their views on the actions' performance. The distance between these two groups is then measured. An action's aggregated disagreement taking into account all criteria is then used as the action's associated resource constraint, and portfolios can be generated by solving a sequence of Knapsack problems. The robustness of the portfolios can be further evaluated with an a priori sensitivity analysis. The suggested approach supports decision makers by elucidating how the portfolio composition changes when the actions' aggregated disagreement increases.
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| 13. |
- Fasth, Tobias, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring Conflicts Using Cardinal Ranking : An Application to Decision Analytic Conflict Evaluations
- 2018
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Ingår i: Advances in Operations Research. - : Hindawi Publishing Corporation. - 1687-9147 .- 1687-9155. ; 2018
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- One of the core complexities involved in evaluating decision alternatives in the area of public decision-making is to deal with conflicts. The stakeholders affected by and involved in the decision often have conflicting preferences regarding the actions under consideration. For an executive authority, these differences of opinion can be problematic, during both implementation and communication, even though the decision is rational with respect to an attribute set perceived to represent social welfare. It is therefore important to involve the stakeholders in the process and to get an understanding of their preferences. Otherwise, the stakeholder disagreement can lead to costly conflicts. One way of approaching this problem is to provide means for comprehensive, yet effective stakeholder preference elicitation methods, where the stakeholders can state their preferences with respect to actions part of the current agenda of a government. In this paper we contribute two supporting methods: (i) an application of the cardinal ranking (CAR) method for preference elicitation for conflict evaluations and (ii) two conflict indices for measuring stakeholder conflicts. The application of the CAR method utilizes a do nothing alternative to differentiate between positive and negative actions. The elicited preferences can then be used as input to the two conflict indices indicating the level of conflict within a stakeholder group or between two stakeholder groups. The contributed methods are demonstrated in a real-life example carried out in the municipality of Upplands Väsby, Sweden. We show how a questionnaire can be used to elicit preferences with CAR and how the indices can be used to semantically describe the level of consensus and conflict regarding a certain attribute. As such, we show how the methods can provide decision aid in the clarification of controversies.
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| 14. |
- Fasth, Tobias, et al.
(författare)
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On the Use of ISO 2859 Sampling by Attributes as Quality Control of Cleared Land in Humanitarian Demining
- 2012
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In the International Mine Action Standards (IMAS) standards for mine actions are defined. One of these describes how quality control is conducted. The inspections and sampling of cleared land are based on the ISO 2859 standard. This standard uses sampling by attributes, i.e. a sample is taken from a lot of produced units andthe lot is rejected if the number of non-conforming items exceeds a threshold. In this report the criticism levelled against ISO 2859 is investigated and particularly the cost and informative value of using ISO 2859 as it is being applied through IMAS. A quantitative investigation of the sampling plans specified in IMAS indicate that the value of sampling is highly dependent on the size of the lot andthe actual quality level and that the sampling plans are not optimal. If samplingshould be conducted seen from a cost perspective taking its informative value into account, this value is highly dependent on the expected quality of clearance, to what degree this quality is uncertain, and the lot size. The IMAS is inflexibletowards this and is not well calibrated in order to weigh the informative value ofsampling against its costs. We therefore propose a revision of IMAS 09.20 facilitating a more cost effective approach to sampling and quality control. Of importance would be to relatethe cost of sampling to opportunity costs such as performing clearance. This may also consider how to distribute the cost of sampling across cost carriers, stimulating the clearance organisations to obtain and maintain a high quality. Further, it isnot clear how to account for both the producer’s and the consumer’s risk in terms of quality in the mine action domain. Investigating methods for aggregating thesein a model for identifying a feasible sampling plan might be valuable in order to perform cost effective quality control while maintaining the objective of releasingsafe land.
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| 15. |
- Fasth, Tobias, et al.
(författare)
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Portfolio Decision Analysis for Evaluating Stakeholder Conflicts in Land Use Planning
- 2020
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Ingår i: Group Decision and Negotiation. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0926-2644 .- 1572-9907. ; 29:2, s. 321-343
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Urban planning typically involves multiple actors and stakeholders with conflicting opinions and diverging preferences. The proposed development plans and actions greatly affect the quality of life of the local community at different spatial scales and time horizons. Consequently, it is important for decision-makers to understand and analyse the conflicting needs and priorities of the local community. This paper presents a decision analytic framework for evaluating stakeholder conflicts in urban planning. First, the stakeholders state their preferences regarding the actions in terms of a set of criteria and estimate the weight of each criterion. Then, a conflict index and overall value for each action is calculated. Next, a set of Pareto efficient portfolios of actions are generated by solving an optimization problem with different levels of conflict as a resource constraint. Finally, a sensitivity analysis of the actions is performed. The framework is demonstrated using real-world survey data collected in the municipality of Upplands Väsby, Sweden.
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| 16. |
- Fasth, Tobias, et al.
(författare)
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Portfolio Decision Analysis in Vague Domains
- 2012
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the 2012 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management. - : IEEE Computer Society. - 9781467329446 ; , s. 61-65
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Portfolio Decision Analysis (PDA) is applicable in many domains and is therefore an important part of Decision Analysis (DA). PDA enables the identification of a preferred portfolio of alternatives instead of a single alternative, which is the typical case in traditional DA. The DELTA framework for interval decision analysis enables a decision maker to model and evaluate decision problems in vague domains with imprecise information, however, it does not support PDA. This paper presents an extension of the DELTA method so that portfolio decision problems can be modelled and evaluated within that framework. The extension is based on a set of reasonable requirements, and an evaluation of the PDA methods PROBE, RPM and Equity.
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| 17. |
- Fasth, Tobias, et al.
(författare)
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Sensitivity Analysis in Portfolio Interval Decision Analysis
- 2013
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the Twenty-Sixth International Florida Artificial Intelligence Research Society Conference. - : AAAI Press. - 9781577356059 ; , s. 609-614
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Techniques enabling decision makers to identify a set of non-mutually exclusive projects (or alternatives) constituting a portfolio, while allowing for imprecise information with respect to projects’ benefits, costs, and overall resource constraints, have emerged as an area of great applicability. To reach applicability, reasonable and computationally meaningful decision evaluation methods are needed. In this paper, we propose an embedded form of sensitivity analysis for portfolio interval decision analysis building upon the concept of interval contraction. Both a priori sensitivity analysis and a posteriori sensitivity analysis for portfolio interval decision analysis are supported by the approach.
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| 18. |
- Fasth, Tobias, et al.
(författare)
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VirSim - a model to support pandemic policy making
- 2010
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Ingår i: PLOS Currents. - 2157-3999. ; 2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A simulation model called VirSim was developed to aid policy making in Sweden. The model simulates the spread of pandemic influenza, using real population data on a national and regional level. Swedish authorities wanted a model that was both quick to run and to implement as a complement to the existing model MicroSim. The possibility to interactively investigate the effect of varying different assumptions was an important aspect. The VirSim model proved useful for comparing different interventions strategies, and for forecasting the societal burden in terms of hospitalization and workplace absenteeism. This paper points out the usefulness of System Dynamics models in public policy making, as a complement to more detailed and time-consuming models.
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| 19. |
- Gong, Liang, 1985, et al.
(författare)
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Development of virtual reality support to factory layout planning
- 2019
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Ingår i: International Journal on Interactive Design and Manufacturing. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1955-2505 .- 1955-2513. ; 13:3, s. 935-945
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Virtual reality (VR) technology has become ever mature today with affordable and yet powerful hardware. In the manufacturing industry, there is a growing interest of adopting VR to improve existing work procedures. Factory layout planning (FLP) is a long standing area in production engineering that sees great potentials of VR integration. Virtual reality supported layout planning (VLP) is gaining wider attention in research and practice as the virtual environment allows designers to test out “what if” scenarios in relative ease. However, previous research of VLP mostly focus on general layout planning but not the detailed level planning. Also, it is reported that the virtual modeling process is time-consuming and costly. In this study, we propose a point cloud based virtual factory modelling approach for the VLP tasks. It incorporates point cloud representation of physical environment with CAD data to model the virtual factory with the aims of simplifying the modelling process and improving decision-making for the VLP tasks. The proposed approach is exemplified and refined through three industrial cases. The implementations and results of the cases are highlighted and discussed in details. At the end, a general guidance for VLP is extracted and presented for future point cloud based VR support in FLP tasks.
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| 20. |
- Larsson, Aron, et al.
(författare)
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Policy analysis on the fly with an online multicriteria cardinal ranking tool
- 2018
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Ingår i: Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis. - : Wiley. - 1057-9214 .- 1099-1360. ; 25:3-4, s. 55-66
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper reports upon the deliverables and learnings from a project within decision analysis for participatory planning and policy analysis on the municipal level. The project aimed to develop and utilize an online multicriteria decision analysis tool for evaluations of policy alternatives with respect to municipal commercial development policies, acknowledging the objectives and preferences from various local and national stakeholders. The tool itself relied solely on that the users supplied cardinal ranking statements in the appraisal of alternatives and in the ranking of criteria and the surrounding method has been used in three cases. In each case, several significant insights obtained in the decision-modelling workshops were emphasized by the participants. The better understanding of the general decision situation, preference structures, and possible strategies was highly appreciated. The perception was also that this enabled a better understanding of conflicting issues, even when these were not entirely resolved.
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| 21. |
- Talantsev, Anton, et al.
(författare)
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Evaluation of pharmaceutical intervention strategies against pandemics in Sweden : a scenario-driven MCDA study
- 2020
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Ingår i: Value in Health. - 1098-3015 .- 1524-4733.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objectives: To enhance preparedness for diverse pandemic situations by predicting the performance of alternative pharmaceutical intervention strategies.Methods: We gathered domain experts and ran a series of decision conferences where a scenario-based MCDA model was interactively defined and implemented. Assuming an influenza pandemic, a microsimulation model was used to estimate societal health impact, a health-economic model was used to estimate economic losses, and expert preferences were elicited to define trade-offs between multiple criteria and synthesize various estimates. Sensitivity analysis to address various forms of uncertainty, along with exploration of inter-scenario robustness of strategies, were also conducted.Results: Nine intervention strategies, including the baseline "no interventions" strategy, were evaluated and ranked under five pandemic scenarios for Sweden’s population. The strategy prioritising vaccination of children and people in medical risk groups performed most robust across the scenarios.Conclusions: Scenario-based MCDA approach relying on multiple models for consequences assessment is instrumental in defining robust intervention strategies under deep uncertainty and support decision-making at the pre-pandemic and pandemic situations.
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| 22. |
- Talantsev, Anton, 1983-, et al.
(författare)
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Evaluation of pharmaceutical intervention strategies against pandemics in Sweden : A scenario-driven multiple criteria decision analysis study
- 2022
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Ingår i: Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis. - : Wiley. - 1057-9214 .- 1099-1360. ; 29:1-2, s. 49-66
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To enhance preparedness for diverse pandemic situations we aim to predict the performance of various pharmaceutical intervention strategies. We gathered domain experts and ran a series of decision conferences where a scenario-based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) model was interactively defined and implemented. Assuming an influenza pandemic, a micro simulation model was used to estimate societal health impact, a health-economic model was used to estimate economic losses, and expert preferences were elicited to define trade-offs between multiple criteria and synthesize various estimates. Sensitivity analysis to address various forms of uncertainty was also conducted. Nine intervention strategies, including the baseline “no interventions” strategy, were evaluated and ranked under five pandemic scenarios for Sweden's population. We conclude that a scenario-based MCDA approach relying on multiple models for assessment of consequences is instrumental in defining robust interventions and support decision-making at the pre-pandemic and pandemic situations.
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