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- Ferrat, L.A., et al.
(författare)
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A combined risk score enhances prediction of type 1 diabetes among susceptible children
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature Medicine. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1546-170X .- 1078-8956. ; 26:8, s. 1247-1255
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Type 1 diabetes (T1D)-an autoimmune disease that destroys the pancreatic islets, resulting in insulin deficiency-often begins early in life when islet autoantibody appearance signals high risk1. However, clinical diabetes can follow in weeks or only after decades, and is very difficult to predict. Ketoacidosis at onset remains common2,3 and is most severe in the very young4,5, in whom it can be life threatening and difficult to treat6-9. Autoantibody surveillance programs effectively prevent most ketoacidosis10-12 but require frequent evaluations whose expense limits public health adoption13. Prevention therapies applied before onset, when greater islet mass remains, have rarely been feasible14 because individuals at greatest risk of impending T1D are difficult to identify. To remedy this, we sought accurate, cost-effective estimation of future T1D risk by developing a combined risk score incorporating both fixed and variable factors (genetic, clinical and immunological) in 7,798 high-risk children followed closely from birth for 9.3 years. Compared with autoantibodies alone, the combined model dramatically improves T1D prediction at ≥2 years of age over horizons up to 8 years of age (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ≥ 0.9), doubles the estimated efficiency of population-based newborn screening to prevent ketoacidosis, and enables individualized risk estimates for better prevention trial selection.
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| 8. |
- Large, DJ, et al.
(författare)
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The influence of climate, hydrology and permafrost on Holocene peat accumulation at 3500 m on the eastern Qinghai-Tibetan plateau
- 2009
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Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 28:27-28, s. 3303-3314
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Peatland of the eastern Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau lies at the convergence of the East Asian and Indian monsoon systems in eastern Asia. To understand the evolution of this peatland and its potential to provide new insights into the Holocene evolution of the East Asian monsoon a 6 m peat core was collected from the undisturbed central part of a peat deposit near Hongyuan. The age-depth profile was determined using 16 14C-AMS age dates, the peat analysed for a range of environmental variables including carbon, nitrogen and hydrogen concentration, bulk density, δ13C and the associated spring water analysed for hydrogen and oxygen isotopes. The age-depth profile of the recovered peat sequence covers the period from 9.6 to 0.3 kyr BP and is linear indicating that the conditions governing productivity and decay varied little over the Holocene. Using changes in carbon density, organic carbon content and its δ13C, cold dry periods of permafrost characterised by low density and impeded surface drainage were identified. The low δ18O and δD values of the spring water emanating around the peat deposit, down to −13.8 and −102‰ (VSMOW), respectively, with an inverse relationship between electrical conductivity and isotopic composition indicate precipitation under colder and drier conditions relative to the present day. In view of the current annual mean air temperature of 1 °C this suggests conditions in the past have been conducive to permafrost. Inferred periods of permafrost correspond to independently recognised cold periods in other Holocene records from across China at 8.6, 8.2–7.8, 5.6–4.2, 3.1 and 1.8–1.5 kyr BP. The transition to a cold dry climate appears to be more rapid than the subsequent recovery and cold dry periods at Hongyuan are of longer duration than equivalent cold dry periods over central and eastern China. Light–dark banding peat on a scale of 15–30 years from 9.6 to 5.5 kyr BP may indicate a strong influence of decadal oscillations possibly the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and a potential link between near simultaneous climatic changes in the northwest Pacific, ENSO, movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the East Asian Monsoon.
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- Diaz Somoano, Mercedes, et al.
(författare)
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Stable Lead Isotope Compositions In Selected Coals From Around The World And Implications For Present Day Aerosol Source Tracing
- 2009
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Ingår i: Environmental Science and Technology. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 0013-936X .- 1520-5851. ; 43:4, s. 1078-1085
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The phasing out of leaded gasoline in many countries around the world at the end of the last millennium has resulted in a complex mixture of lead sources in the atmosphere. Recent studies suggest that coal combustion has become an important source of Pb in aerosols in urban and remote areas. Here, we report lead concentration and isotopic composition for 59 coal samples representing major coal deposits worldwide in an attempt to characterize this potential source. The average concentration in these coals is 35 μg Pb g−1, with the highest values in coals from Spain and Peru and the lowest in coals from Australia and North America. The 206Pb/207Pb isotope ratios range between 1.15 and 1.24, with less radiogenic Pb in coals from Europe and Asia compared to South and North America. Comparing the Pb isotopic signatures of coals from this and previous studies with those published for Northern and Southern Hemisphere aerosols, we hypothesize that coal combustion might now be an important Pb source in China, the eastern U.S., and to some extent, in Europe but not as yet in other regions including South Africa, South America, and western U.S. This supports the notion that “old Pb pollution” from leaded gasoline reemitted into the atmosphere or long-range transport (i.e., from China to the western U.S.) is important. Comparing the isotope ratios of the coals, the age of the deposits, and Pb isotope evolution models for the major geochemical reservoirs suggests that the PbIC in coals is strongly influenced by the depositional coal forming environment.
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