| 1. |
- Abadie, J., et al.
(författare)
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Implementation and testing of the first prompt search for gravitational wave transients with electromagnetic counterparts
- 2012
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Ingår i: Astronomy & Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 539
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims. A transient astrophysical event observed in both gravitational wave (GW) and electromagnetic (EM) channels would yield rich scientific rewards. A first program initiating EM follow-ups to possible transient GW events has been developed and exercised by the LIGO and Virgo community in association with several partners. In this paper, we describe and evaluate the methods used to promptly identify and localize GW event candidates and to request images of targeted sky locations. Methods. During two observing periods (Dec. 17, 2009 to Jan. 8, 2010 and Sep. 2 to Oct. 20, 2010), a low-latency analysis pipeline was used to identify GW event candidates and to reconstruct maps of possible sky locations. A catalog of nearby galaxies and Milky Way globular clusters was used to select the most promising sky positions to be imaged, and this directional information was delivered to EM observatories with time lags of about thirty minutes. A Monte Carlo simulation has been used to evaluate the low-latency GW pipeline's ability to reconstruct source positions correctly. Results. For signals near the detection threshold, our low-latency algorithms often localized simulated GW burst signals to tens of square degrees, while neutron star/neutron star inspirals and neutron star/black hole inspirals were localized to a few hundred square degrees. Localization precision improves for moderately stronger signals. The correct sky location of signals well above threshold and originating from nearby galaxies may be observed with similar to 50% or better probability with a few pointings of wide-field telescopes.
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| 2. |
- Abadie, J., et al.
(författare)
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All-sky search for periodic gravitational waves in the full S5 LIGO data
- 2012
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Ingår i: Physical Review D (Particles, Fields, Gravitation and Cosmology). - 1550-2368. ; 85:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report on an all-sky search for periodic gravitational waves in the frequency band 50-800 Hz and with the frequency time derivative in the range of 0 through -6 x 10(-9) Hz/s. Such a signal could be produced by a nearby spinning and slightly nonaxisymmetric isolated neutron star in our Galaxy. After recent improvements in the search program that yielded a 10x increase in computational efficiency, we have searched in two years of data collected during LIGO's fifth science run and have obtained the most sensitive all-sky upper limits on gravitational-wave strain to date. Near 150 Hz our upper limit on worst-case linearly polarized strain amplitude h(0) is 1 x 10(-24), while at the high end of our frequency range we achieve a worst-case upper limit of 3.8 x 10(-24) for all polarizations and sky locations. These results constitute a factor of 2 improvement upon previously published data. A new detection pipeline utilizing a loosely coherent algorithm was able to follow up weaker outliers, increasing the volume of space where signals can be detected by a factor of 10, but has not revealed any gravitational-wave signals. The pipeline has been tested for robustness with respect to deviations from the model of an isolated neutron star, such as caused by a low-mass or long-period binary companion.
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| 3. |
- Abadie, J., et al.
(författare)
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Search for Gravitational Waves Associated with Gamma-Ray Bursts during LIGO Science Run 6 and Virgo Science Runs 2 and 3
- 2012
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - 0004-637X. ; 760:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present the results of a search for gravitational waves associated with 154 gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) that were detected by satellite-based gamma-ray experiments in 2009-2010, during the sixth LIGO science run and the second and third Virgo science runs. We perform two distinct searches: a modeled search for coalescences of either two neutron stars or a neutron star and black hole, and a search for generic, unmodeled gravitational-wave bursts. We find no evidence for gravitational-wave counterparts, either with any individual GRB in this sample or with the population as a whole. For all GRBs we place lower bounds on the distance to the progenitor, under the optimistic assumption of a gravitational-wave emission energy of 10(-2) M-circle dot c(2) at 150 Hz, with a median limit of 17 Mpc. For short-hard GRBs we place exclusion distances on binary neutron star and neutron-star-black-hole progenitors, using astrophysically motivated priors on the source parameters, with median values of 16 Mpc and 28 Mpc, respectively. These distance limits, while significantly larger than for a search that is not aided by GRB satellite observations, are not large enough to expect a coincidence with a GRB. However, projecting these exclusions to the sensitivities of Advanced LIGO and Virgo, which should begin operation in 2015, we find that the detection of gravitational waves associated with GRBs will become quite possible.
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| 4. |
- Abadie, J., et al.
(författare)
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Search for gravitational waves from low mass compact binary coalescence in LIGO's sixth science run and Virgo's science runs 2 and 3
- 2012
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Ingår i: Physical Review D (Particles, Fields, Gravitation and Cosmology). - 1550-2368. ; 85:8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report on a search for gravitational waves from coalescing compact binaries using LIGO and Virgo observations between July 7, 2009, and October 20, 2010. We searched for signals from binaries with total mass between 2 and 25M(circle dot); this includes binary neutron stars, binary black holes, and binaries consisting of a black hole and neutron star. The detectors were sensitive to systems up to 40 Mpc distant for binary neutron stars, and further for higher mass systems. No gravitational-wave signals were detected. We report upper limits on the rate of compact binary coalescence as a function of total mass, including the results from previous LIGO and Virgo observations. The cumulative 90% confidence rate upper limits of the binary coalescence of binary neutron star, neutron star-black hole, and binary black hole systems are 1.3 x 10(-4), 3.1 x 10(-5), and 6.4 x 10(-6) Mpc(-3) yr(-1), respectively. These upper limits are up to a factor 1.4 lower than previously derived limits. We also report on results from a blind injection challenge.
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| 5. |
- Abadie, J., et al.
(författare)
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All-sky search for gravitational-wave bursts in the second joint LIGO-Virgo run
- 2012
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Ingår i: Physical Review D (Particles, Fields, Gravitation and Cosmology). - 1550-2368. ; 85:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present results from a search for gravitational-wave bursts in the data collected by the LIGO and Virgo detectors between July 7, 2009 and October 20, 2010: data are analyzed when at least two of the three LIGO-Virgo detectors are in coincident operation, with a total observation time of 207 days. The analysis searches for transients of duration less than or similar to 1 s over the frequency band 64-5000 Hz, without other assumptions on the signal waveform, polarization, direction or occurrence time. All identified events are consistent with the expected accidental background. We set frequentist upper limits on the rate of gravitational-wave bursts by combining this search with the previous LIGO-Virgo search on the data collected between November 2005 and October 2007. The upper limit on the rate of strong gravitational-wave bursts at the Earth is 1.3 events per year at 90% confidence. We also present upper limits on source rate density per year and Mpc(3) for sample populations of standard-candle sources. As in the previous joint run, typical sensitivities of the search in terms of the root-sum-squared strain amplitude for these waveforms lie in the range similar to 5 x 10(-22) Hz(-1/2) to similar to 1 x 10(-20) Hz(-1/2). The combination of the two joint runs entails the most sensitive all-sky search for generic gravitational-wave bursts and synthesizes the results achieved by the initial generation of interferometric detectors.
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| 6. |
- Abadie, J., et al.
(författare)
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First low-latency LIGO plus Virgo search for binary inspirals and their electromagnetic counterparts
- 2012
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Ingår i: Astronomy & Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 541
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims. The detection and measurement of gravitational-waves from coalescing neutron-star binary systems is an important science goal for ground-based gravitational-wave detectors. In addition to emitting gravitational-waves at frequencies that span the most sensitive bands of the LIGO and Virgo detectors, these sources are also amongst the most likely to produce an electromagnetic counterpart to the gravitational-wave emission. A joint detection of the gravitational-wave and electromagnetic signals would provide a powerful new probe for astronomy. Methods. During the period between September 19 and October 20, 2010, the first low-latency search for gravitational-waves from binary inspirals in LIGO and Virgo data was conducted. The resulting triggers were sent to electromagnetic observatories for followup. We describe the generation and processing of the low-latency gravitational-wave triggers. The results of the electromagnetic image analysis will be described elsewhere. Results. Over the course of the science run, three gravitational-wave triggers passed all of the low-latency selection cuts. Of these, one was followed up by several of our observational partners. Analysis of the gravitational-wave data leads to an estimated false alarm rate of once every 6.4 days, falling far short of the requirement for a detection based solely on gravitational-wave data.
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| 7. |
- Abadie, J., et al.
(författare)
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Search for gravitational waves from intermediate mass binary black holes
- 2012
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Ingår i: Physical Review D (Particles, Fields, Gravitation and Cosmology). - 1550-2368. ; 85:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present the results of a weakly modeled burst search for gravitational waves from mergers of nonspinning intermediate mass black holes in the total mass range 100-450 M-circle dot and with the component mass ratios between 1: and 4:1. The search was conducted on data collected by the LIGO and Virgo detectors between November of 2005 and October of 2007. No plausible signals were observed by the search which constrains the astrophysical rates of the intermediate mass black holes mergers as a function of the component masses. In the most efficiently detected bin centered on 88 + 88 M-circle dot, for nonspinning sources, the rate density upper limit is 0.13 per Mpc(3) per Myr at the 90% confidence level.
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| 8. |
- Abadie, J., et al.
(författare)
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Upper limits on a stochastic gravitational-wave background using LIGO and Virgo interferometers at 600-1000 Hz
- 2012
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Ingår i: Physical Review D (Particles, Fields, Gravitation and Cosmology). - 1550-2368. ; 85:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A stochastic background of gravitational waves is expected to arise from a superposition of many incoherent sources of gravitational waves, of either cosmological or astrophysical origin. This background is a target for the current generation of ground-based detectors. In this article we present the first joint search for a stochastic background using data from the LIGO and Virgo interferometers. In a frequency band of 600-1000 Hz, we obtained a 95% upper limit on the amplitude of Omega(GW)(f) = Omega(3)(f/900 Hz)(3), of Omega(3) < 0.32, assuming a value of the Hubble parameter of h(100) = 0.71. These new limits are a factor of seven better than the previous best in this frequency band.
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| 9. |
- Evans, P. A., et al.
(författare)
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Swift Follow-up Observations of Candidate Gravitational-wave Transient Events
- 2012
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Ingår i: The Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0067-0049 .- 1538-4365. ; 203:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present the first multi-wavelength follow-up observations of two candidate gravitational-wave (GW) transient events recorded by LIGO and Virgo in their 2009-2010 science run. The events were selected with low latency by the network of GW detectors (within less than 10 minutes) and their candidate sky locations were observed by the Swift observatory (within 12 hr). Image transient detection was used to analyze the collected electromagnetic data, which were found to be consistent with background. Off-line analysis of the GW data alone has also established that the selected GW events show no evidence of an astrophysical origin; one of them is consistent with background and the other one was a test, part of a "blind injection challenge." With this work we demonstrate the feasibility of rapid follow-ups of GW transients and establish the sensitivity improvement joint electromagnetic and GW observations could bring. This is a first step toward an electromagnetic follow-up program in the regime of routine detections with the advanced GW instruments expected within this decade. In that regime, multi-wavelength observations will play a significant role in completing the astrophysical identification of GW sources. We present the methods and results from this first combined analysis and discuss its implications in terms of sensitivity for the present and future instruments.
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| 10. |
- Aasi, J., et al.
(författare)
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Einstein@Home all-sky search for periodic gravitational waves in LIGO S5 data
- 2013
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Ingår i: Physical Review D (Particles, Fields, Gravitation and Cosmology). - 1550-2368. ; 87:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents results of an all-sky search for periodic gravitational waves in the frequency range [50, 1190] Hz and with frequency derivative range of similar to[-20, 1.1] x 10(-10) Hz s(-1) for the fifth LIGO science run (S5). The search uses a noncoherent Hough-transform method to combine the information from coherent searches on time scales of about one day. Because these searches are very computationally intensive, they have been carried out with the Einstein@Home volunteer distributed computing project. Postprocessing identifies eight candidate signals; deeper follow-up studies rule them out. Hence, since no gravitational wave signals have been found, we report upper limits on the intrinsic gravitational wave strain amplitude h(0). For example, in the 0.5 Hz-wide band at 152.5 Hz, we can exclude the presence of signals with h(0) greater than 7.6 x 10(-25) at a 90% confidence level. This search is about a factor 3 more sensitive than the previous Einstein@Home search of early S5 LIGO data.
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| 11. |
- Aasi, J., et al.
(författare)
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Parameter estimation for compact binary coalescence signals with the first generation gravitational-wave detector network
- 2013
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Ingår i: Physical Review D (Particles, Fields, Gravitation and Cosmology). - 1550-2368. ; 88:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Compact binary systems with neutron stars or black holes are one of the most promising sources for ground-based gravitational-wave detectors. Gravitational radiation encodes rich information about source physics; thus parameter estimation and model selection are crucial analysis steps for any detection candidate events. Detailed models of the anticipated waveforms enable inference on several parameters, such as component masses, spins, sky location and distance, that are essential for new astrophysical studies of these sources. However, accurate measurements of these parameters and discrimination of models describing the underlying physics are complicated by artifacts in the data, uncertainties in the waveform models and in the calibration of the detectors. Here we report such measurements on a selection of simulated signals added either in hardware or software to the data collected by the two LIGO instruments and the Virgo detector during their most recent joint science run, including a "blind injection'' where the signal was not initially revealed to the collaboration. We exemplify the ability to extract information about the source physics on signals that cover the neutron-star and black-hole binary parameter space over the component mass range 1M(circle dot)-25M(circle dot) and the full range of spin parameters. The cases reported in this study provide a snapshot of the status of parameter estimation in preparation for the operation of advanced detectors.
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| 12. |
- Aasi, J., et al.
(författare)
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Search for gravitational waves from binary black hole inspiral, merger, and ringdown in LIGO-Virgo data from 2009-2010
- 2013
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Ingår i: Physical Review D (Particles, Fields, Gravitation and Cosmology). - 1550-2368. ; 87:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report a search for gravitational waves from the inspiral, merger and ringdown of binary black holes (BBH) with total mass between 25 and 100 solar masses, in data taken at the LIGO and Virgo observatories between July 7, 2009 and October 20, 2010. The maximum sensitive distance of the detectors over this period for a (20, 20)M-circle dot coalescence was 300 Mpc. No gravitational wave signals were found. We thus report upper limits on the astrophysical coalescence rates of BBH as a function of the component masses for nonspinning components, and also evaluate the dependence of the search sensitivity on component spins aligned with the orbital angular momentum. We find an upper limit at 90% confidence on the coalescence rate of BBH with nonspinning components of mass between 19 and 28M(circle dot) of 3:3 x 10(-7) mergers Mpc(-3) yr(-1).
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| 13. |
- Aasi, J., et al.
(författare)
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The characterization of Virgo data and its impact on gravitational-wave searches
- 2012
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Ingår i: Classical and Quantum Gravity. - : IOP Publishing. - 1361-6382 .- 0264-9381. ; 29:15
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Between 2007 and 2010 Virgo collected data in coincidence with the LIGO and GEO gravitational-wave (GW) detectors. These data have been searched for GWs emitted by cataclysmic phenomena in the universe, by non-axisymmetric rotating neutron stars or from a stochastic background in the frequency band of the detectors. The sensitivity of GW searches is limited by noise produced by the detector or its environment. It is therefore crucial to characterize the various noise sources in a GW detector. This paper reviews the Virgo detector noise sources, noise propagation, and conversion mechanisms which were identified in the three first Virgo observing runs. In many cases, these investigations allowed us to mitigate noise sources in the detector, or to selectively flag noise events and discard them from the data. We present examples from the joint LIGO-GEO-Virgo GW searches to show how well noise transients and narrow spectral lines have been identified and excluded from the Virgo data. We also discuss how detector characterization can improve the astrophysical reach of GW searches.
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| 14. |
- Adrian-Martinez, S., et al.
(författare)
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A first search for coincident gravitational waves and high energy neutrinos using LIGO, Virgo and ANTARES data from 2007
- 2013
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Ingår i: Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics. - : IOP Publishing. - 1475-7516. ; :6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present the results of the first search for gravitational wave bursts associated with high energy neutrinos. Together, these messengers could reveal new, hidden sources that are not observed by conventional photon astronomy, particularly at high energy. Our search uses neutrinos detected by the underwater neutrino telescope ANTARES in its 5 line configuration during the period January - September 2007, which coincided with the fifth and first science runs of LIGO and Virgo, respectively. The LIGO-Virgo data were analysed for candidate gravitational-wave signals coincident in time and direction with the neutrino events. No significant coincident events were observed. We place limits on the density of joint high energy neutrino - gravitational wave emission events in the local universe, and compare them with densities of merger and core-collapse events.
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| 15. |
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| 16. |
- Breuer, L., et al.
(författare)
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Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM). I : Model intercomparison with current land use
- 2009
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Ingår i: Advances in Water Resources. - : Elsevier BV. - 0309-1708 .- 1872-9657. ; 32:2, s. 129-146
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper introduces the project on 'Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM)' that aims at investigating the envelope of predictions on changes in hydrological fluxes due to land use change. As part of a series of four papers, this paper outlines the motivation and setup of LUCHEM, and presents a model intercomparison for the present-day simulation results. Such an intercomparison provides a valuable basis to investigate the effects of different model structures on model predictions and paves the ground for the analysis of the performance of multi-model ensembles and the reliability of the scenario predictions in companion papers. in this study, we applied a set of 10 lumped, semi-lumped and fully distributed hydrological models that have been previously used in land use change studies to the low mountainous Dill catchment. Germany. Substantial differences in model performance were observed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies ranging from 0.53 to 0.92. Differences in model performance were attributed to (1) model input data, (2) model calibration and (3) the physical basis of the models. The models were applied with two sets of input data: an original and a homogenized data set. This homogenization of precipitation, temperature and leaf area index was performed to reduce the variation between the models. Homogenization improved the comparability of model simulations and resulted in a reduced average bias, although some variation in model data input remained. The effect of the physical differences between models on the long-term water balance was mainly attributed to differences in how models represent evapotranspiration. Semi-lumped and lumped conceptual models slightly outperformed the fully distributed and physically based models. This was attributed to the automatic model calibration typically used for this type of models. Overall, however, we conclude that there was no superior model if several measures of model performance are considered and that all models are suitable to participate in further multi-model ensemble set-ups and land use change scenario investigations.
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| 17. |
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| 18. |
- Diaz, Oscar E., et al.
(författare)
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Perfluorooctanesulfonic acid modulates barrier function and systemic T-cell homeostasis during intestinal inflammation
- 2021
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Ingår i: DMM Disease Models and Mechanisms. - : The Company of Biologists. - 1754-8411 .- 1754-8403. ; 14:12, s. 1-11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The intestinal epithelium is continuously exposed to deleterious environmental factors that might cause aberrant immune responses leading to inflammatory disorders. However, what environmental factors might contribute to disease are poorly understood. Here, to overcome the lack of in vivo models suitable for screening of environmental factors, we used zebrafish reporters of intestinal inflammation. Using zebrafish, we interrogated the immunomodulatory effects of polyfluoroalkyl substances, which have been positively associated with ulcerative colitis incidence. Exposure to perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS) during 2,4,6-trinitro-benzene sulfonic acid (TNBS)-induced inflammation enhanced the expression of proinflammatory cytokines as well as neutrophil recruitment to the intestine of zebrafish larvae, which was validated in the TNBS-induced colitis mouse model. Moreover, PFOS exposure in mice undergoing colitis resulted in neutrophil-dependent increased intestinal permeability and enhanced PFOS translocation into the circulation. This was associated with a neutrophil-dependent expansion of systemic CD4+ T cells. Thus, our results indicate that PFOS worsens inflammation-induced intestinal damage with disruption of T-cell homeostasis beyond the gut and provides a novel in vivo toolbox to screen for pollutants affecting intestinal homeostasis.
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| 19. |
- Exbrayat, J. -F, et al.
(författare)
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Ensemble modelling of nitrogen fluxes : Data fusion for a Swedish meso-scale catchment
- 2010
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Ingår i: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1607-7938 .- 1027-5606. ; 14:12, s. 2383-2397
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Model predictions of biogeochemical fluxes at the landscape scale are highly uncertain, both with respect to stochastic (parameter) and structural uncertainty. In this study 5 different models (LASCAM, LASCAM-S, a selfdeveloped tool, SWAT and HBV-N-D) designed to simulate hydrological fluxes as well as mobilisation and transport of one or several nitrogen species were applied to the mesoscale River Fyris catchment in mid-eastern Sweden. Hydrological calibration against 5 years of recorded daily discharge at two stations gave highly variable results with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) ranging between 0.48 and 0.83. Using the calibrated hydrological parameter sets, the parameter uncertainty linked to the nitrogen parameters was explored in order to cover the range of possible predictions of exported loads for 3 nitrogen species: nitrate (NO3), ammonium (NH4) and total nitrogen (Tot-N). For each model and each nitrogen species, predictions were ranked in two different ways according to the performance indicated by two different goodness-of-fit measures: the coefficient of determination R2 and the root mean square error RMSE. A total of 2160 deterministic Single Model Ensembles (SME) was generated using an increasing number of members (from the 2 best to the 10 best single predictions). Finally the best SME for each model, nitrogen species and discharge station were selected and merged into 330 different Multi-Model Ensembles (MME). The evolution of changes in R2 and RMSE was used as a performance descriptor of the ensemble procedure. In each studied case, numerous ensemble merging schemes were identified which outperformed any of their members. Improvement rates were generally higher when worse members were introduced. The highest improvements were achieved for the nitrogen SMEs compiled with multiple linear regression models with R2 selected members, which resulted in the RMSE decreasing by up to 90%. © Author(s) 2010.
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| 20. |
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| 21. |
- Exbrayat, J. F., et al.
(författare)
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Multi-model data fusion as a tool for PUB : example in a Swedish mesoscale catchment
- 2011
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Ingår i: Advances in Geosciences. - : Copernicus Publications. - 1680-7340 .- 1680-7359. ; 29, s. 43-50
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Post-processing the output of different rainfall-runoff models allows one to pool strengths of each model to produce more reliable predictions. As a new approach in the frame of the "Prediction in Ungauged Basins" initiative, this study investigates the geographical transferability of different parameter sets and data-fusion methods which were applied to 5 different rainfall-runoff models for a low-land catchment in Central Sweden. After usual calibration, we adopted a proxy-basin validation approach between two similar but non-nested sub-catchments in order to simulate ungauged conditions. Many model combinations outperformed the best single model predictions with improvements of efficiencies from 0.70 for the best single model predictions to 0.77 for the best ensemble predictions. However no "best" data-fusion method could be determined as similar performances were obtained with different merging schemes. In general, poorer model performance, i.e. lower efficiency, was less likely to occur for ensembles which included more individual models.
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| 22. |
- Huisman, J. A., et al.
(författare)
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Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM) III : Scenario analysis
- 2009
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Ingår i: Advances in Water Resources. - : Elsevier BV. - 0309-1708 .- 1872-9657. ; 32:2, s. 159-170
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- An ensemble of 10 hydrological models was applied to the same set of land use change scenarios. There was general agreement about the direction of changes in the mean annual discharge and 90% discharge percentile predicted by the ensemble members, although a considerable range in the magnitude of predictions for the scenarios and catchments under consideration was obvious. Differences in the magnitude of the increase were attributed to the different mean annual actual evapotranspiration rates for each land use type. The ensemble of model runs was further analyzed with deterministic and probabilistic ensemble methods. The deterministic ensemble method based on a trimmed mean resulted in a single somewhat more reliable scenario prediction. The probabilistic reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method allowed a quantification of the model structure uncertainty in the scenario predictions. It was concluded that the use of a model ensemble has greatly increased our confidence in the reliability of the model predictions.
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| 23. |
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| 24. |
- Viney, N. R., et al.
(författare)
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Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modelling (LUCHEM) II : Ensemble combinations and predictions
- 2009
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Ingår i: Advances in Water Resources. - : Elsevier BV. - 0309-1708 .- 1872-9657. ; 32:2, s. 147-158
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper reports on a project to compare predictions from a range of catchment models applied to a mesoscale river basin in central Germany and to assess various ensemble predictions of catchment streamflow. The models encompass a large range in inherent complexity and input requirements. In approximate order of decreasing complexity, they are DHSVM, MIKE-SHE, TOPLATS, WASIM-ETH, SWAT, PRMS, SLURP, HBV, LASCAM and IHACRES. The models are calibrated twice using different sets of input data. The two predictions from each model are then combined by simple averaging to produce a single-model ensemble. The 10 resulting single-model ensembles are combined in various ways to produce multi-model ensemble predictions. Both the single-model ensembles and the multi-model ensembles are shown to give predictions that are generally superior to those of their respective constituent models, both during a 7-year calibration period and a 9-year validation period. This occurs despite a considerable disparity in performance of the individual models. Even the weakest of models is shown to contribute useful information to the ensembles they are part of. The best model combination methods are a trimmed mean (constructed using the central four or six predictions each day) and a weighted mean ensemble (with weights calculated from calibration performance) that places relatively large weights on the better performing models. Conditional ensembles. in which separate model weights are used in different system states (e.g. summer and winter, high and low flows) generally yield little improvement over the weighted mean ensemble. However a conditional ensemble that discriminates between rising and receding flows shows moderate improvement. An analysis of ensemble predictions shows that the best ensembles are not necessarily those containing the best individual models. Conversely, it appears that some models that predict well individually do not necessarily combine well with other models in multi-model ensembles. The reasons behind these observations may relate to the effects of the weighting schemes, non-stationarity of the climate series and possible cross-correlations between models.
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