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- Raza, Muhammad Ahmad, et al.
(författare)
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A New Bayesian Network-Based Generalized Weighting Scheme for the Amalgamation of Multiple Drought Indices
- 2023
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Ingår i: Complexity. - : Hindawi Publishing Corporation. - 1076-2787 .- 1099-0526.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Drought is one of the most multifaceted hydrologic phenomena, affecting several factors such as soil moisture, surface runoff, and significant water shortages. Therefore, monitoring and assessing drought occurrences based on a single drought index are inadequate. The current study develops a multiscalar weighted amalgamated drought index (MWADI) to amalgamate multiple drought indices. The MWADI is mainly based on the normalized average dependence posterior probabilities (ADPPs). These ADPPs are obtained from Bayesian networks (BNs)-based Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. Results have shown that the MWADI correlates more with the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized precipitation temperature index (SPTI). As proposed, the MWADI synthesizes drought characteristics of different multiscalar drought indices to reduce the uncertainty of individual drought indices and provide a comprehensive drought assessment.
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- Raza, Muhammad Ahmad, et al.
(författare)
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Bayesian logistic regression analysis for spatial patterns of inter-seasonal drought persistence
- 2023
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Ingår i: Geocarto International. - : Taylor & Francis. - 1010-6049 .- 1752-0762. ; 38:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Drought is one of the disastrous natural hazards with complex seasonal and spatial patterns. Understanding the spatial patterns of drought and predicting the likelihood of inter-seasonal drought persistence can provide substantial operational guidelines for water resource management and agricultural production. This study examines drought persistence by identifying the spatial patterns of seasonal drought frequency and inter-seasonal drought persistence in the northeastern region of Pakistan. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) with a three-month time scale is used to examine meteorological drought. Furthermore, Bayesian logistic regression is used to calculate the probability and odds ratios of drought occurrence in the current season, given the previous season's SPI values. For instance, at Balakot station, for the summer-to-autumn season, the value of the odds ratio is significant (6.78). It shows that one unit increase in SPI of the summer season will cause a 5.78 times to increase in odds of autumn drought occurrence. The average drought frequency varies from 37.3 to 89.1%, whereas the average inter-seasonal drought persistence varies from 21.9 to 91.7% in the study region. Results indicate that some areas in the study region, like Kakul and Garhi Dupatta, are more prone to drought and vulnerable to inter-seasonal drought persistence. Furthermore, the Bayesian logistic regression results reveal a negative relationship between spring drought occurrence and winter SPI, demonstrating that the overall study region is more prone to winter-to-spring drought persistence and less vulnerable to summer-to-autumn drought persistence. Overall study has concluded that the region's seasonal drought forecast is challenging due to uncertain drought persistence patterns. However, the Bayesian logistic regression model provides more accurate and precise regional seasonal drought forecasts. The outcome of the present study provides scientific evidence to develop early warning systems and manage seasonal crops in Pakistan.
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- Sedaghat, Ahmad R., et al.
(författare)
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Consensus criteria for chronic rhinosinusitis disease control : an international Delphi Study*
- 2023
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Ingår i: Rhinology. - 0300-0729. ; 61:6, s. 519-530
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS) disease control is a global metric of disease status for CRS. While there is broad acceptance that it is an important treatment goal, there has been inconsistency in the criteria used to define CRS control. The objective of this study was to identify and develop consensus around essential criteria for assessment of CRS disease control. Methods: Modified Delphi methodology consisting of three rounds to review a list of 24 possible CRS control criteria developed by a 12-person steering committee. The core authorship of the multidisciplinary EPOS 2020 guidelines was invited to participate. Results: Thirty-two individuals accepted the invitation to participate and there was no dropout of participants throughout the entire study (3 rounds). Consensus essential criteria for assessment of CRS control were: overall symptom severity, need for CRS-related systemic corticosteroids in the prior 6 months, severity of nasal obstruction, and patient-reported CRS control. Near-consensus items were: nasal endoscopy findings, severity of smell loss, overall quality of life, impairment of normal activities and severity of nasal discharge. Participants’ comments provided insights into caveats of, and disagreements related to, near-consensus items. Conclusions: Overall symptom severity, use of CRS-related systemic corticosteroids, severity of nasal obstruction, and patient-reported CRS control are widely agreed upon essential criteria for assessment of CRS disease control. Consideration of near-consensus items to assess CRS control should be implemented with their intrinsic caveats in mind. These identified consensus CRS control criteria, together with evidence-based support, will provide a foundation upon which CRS control criteria with wide-spread acceptance can be developed.
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- Abdel-Rahman, Suzan, et al.
(författare)
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New evidence of gender inequality during COVID-19 outbreak in the Middle East and North Africa
- 2023
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Ingår i: Heliyon. - : Elsevier. - 2405-8440. ; 9:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly altered employment and income distribution, impacting women and men differently. This study investigates the negative effects of COVID-19 on the labour market, focusing on the gender gap in five countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The study indicates whether women are more susceptible to losing their jobs, either temporarily or permanently, switching their primary occupation, and experiencing decreased working hours and income compared to men during the COVID-19 outbreak. The study utilizes a multivariate Probit model to estimate the relationship between gender and adverse labour outcomes controlling for correlations among outcomes. Data are obtained from the Combined COVID-19 MENA Monitor Household Survey, covering Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, Jordan, and Sudan. The findings of this study offer empirical evidence of the gender gap in labour market outcomes during the pandemic. Women are more likely than men to experience negative work outcomes, such as permanent job loss and change in their main job. The increased childcare and housework responsibilities have significantly impacted women's labour market outcomes during the pandemic. However, the availability of telework has reduced the likelihood of job loss among women. The study's results contribute to a better understanding of the impact of COVID-19 on gender inequality in understudied MENA countries. Mitigation policies should focus on supporting vulnerable women who have experienced disproportionate negative effects of COVID-19.
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- Stutz, Aaron Jonas, 1971-, et al.
(författare)
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Early Upper Paleolithic chronology in the Levant : new ABOx-SC accelerator mass spectrometry results from the Mughr el-Hamamah Site, Jordan
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of Human Evolution. - : Elsevier BV. - 0047-2484 .- 1095-8606. ; 85, s. 157-183
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methodological developments and new paleoanthropological data remain jointly central to clarifying the timing and systemic interrelationships between the Middle-Upper Paleolithic (MP-UP) archaeological transition and the broadly contemporaneous anatomically modern human-archaic biological turnover. In the recently discovered cave site of Mughr el-Hamamah, Jordan, in situ flint artifacts comprise a diagnostic early Upper Paleolithic (EUP) assemblage. Unusually well-preserved charcoal from hearths and other anthropogenic features associated with the lithic material were subjected to acid-base-wet oxidation-stepped combustion (ABOx-SC) pretreatment. This article presents the ABOx-SC accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) radiocarbon dates on nine charcoal specimens from a single palimpsest occupation layer. Date calibration was carried out using the INTCAL13 radiocarbon calibration dataset. With the bulk of the material dating to 45-39 ka cal BP (thousands of years calibrated before present), the Mughr el-Hamamah lithic artifacts reveal important differences from penecontemporaneous sites in the region, documenting greater technological variability than previously known for this time frame in the Levant. The radiocarbon data from this EUP archaeological context highlight remaining challenges for increasing chronological precision in documenting the MP-UP transition.
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