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1.
  • Agstam-Norlin, O., et al. (författare)
  • A 25-year retrospective analysis of factors influencing success of aluminum treatment for lake restoration
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Water Research. - : Elsevier BV. - 0043-1354 .- 1879-2448. ; 200
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • For more than 50 years, aluminum (Al)-salts have been used with varying degrees of success to inactivate excess mobile phosphorus (P) in lake sediments and restore lake water quality. Here, we analyzed the factors influencing effectiveness and longevity of Al-treatments performed in six Swedish lakes over the past 25 years. Trends in post-treatment measurements of total phosphorus (TP), Chlorophyll a (Chl_a), Secchi disk depth (SD) and internal P loading rates (Li) were analyzed and compared to pre-treatment conditions. All measured water quality parameters improved significantly during at least the first 4 years post-treatment and determination of direct effects of Al-treatment on sediment P release (Li) was possible for three lakes. Improvements in TP (-29 to -80%), Chl_a (-50 to -78%), SD (7 to 121%) and Li (-68 to -94%) were observed. Treatment longevity, determined via decreases in surface water TP after treatment, varied from 7 to >47 years. Lake type, Al dose, and relative watershed area were related to longevity. In addition, greater binding efficiency between Al and P was positively related to treatment longevity, which has not previously been shown. Our findings also demonstrate that adequate, long-term monitoring programs, including proper determination of external loads, are crucial to document the effect of Al-treatment on sediment P release and lake water quality.
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2.
  • Agstam, Oskar, et al. (författare)
  • Optimization of aluminum treatment efficiency to control internal phosphorus loading in eutrophic lakes
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Water Research. - : Elsevier BV. - 0043-1354 .- 1879-2448. ; 185
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Historical accumulation of phosphorus (P) in lake sediment often contributes to and sustains eutrophic conditions in lakes, even when external sources of P are reduced. The most cost-effective and commonly used method to restore the balance between P and P-binding metals in the sediment is aluminum (Al) treatment. The binding efficiency of Al, however, has varied greatly among treatments conducted over the past five decades, resulting in substantial differences in the amount of P bound per unit Al. We analyzed sediment from seven previously Al treated Swedish lakes to investigate factors controlling binding efficiency. In contrast to earlier work, lake morphology was negatively correlated to binding efficiency, meaning that binding efficiency was higher in lakes with steeply sloping bathymetry than in lakes with more gradually sloping bottoms. This was likely due to Al generally being added directly into the sediment, and not to the water column. Higher binding efficiencies were detected when Al was applied directly into the sediment, whereas the lowest binding efficiency was detected where Al was instead added to the water column. Al dose, mobile sediment P and lake morphology together explained 87% of the variation in binding efficiency among lakes where Al was added directly into the sediment. This led to the development of a model able to predict the optimal Al dose to maximize binding efficiency based on mobile sediment P mass and lake morphology. The predictive model can be used to evaluate cost-effectiveness and potential outcomes when planning Al-treatment using direct sediment application to restore water quality in eutrophic lakes.
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3.
  • Agstam, Oskar, et al. (författare)
  • Ökad kunskap om kassodlingens miljöeffekter med fokus på fosfor
  • 2023
  • Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • Öppen kassodling av regnbåge och röding i nordliga sjöar och vattenkraftsmagasin är den vanligaste formen av vattenbruk i Sverige idag. Det finns både fördelar och nackdelar med öppen kassodling. Fiskens välfärd är bättre eftersom de lever i en mer naturlig miljö, men avfallsprodukterna från denna typ av vattenbruk kan inte behandlas innan de når miljön.Allt jordbruk påverkar miljön, och vattenbruket är inte annorlunda. En av de främsta formerna av påverkan i samband med livsmedelsproduktion är läckage av näringsämnen. Nästan alla djur i jordbruk behöver utfodras och de flesta odlade växter behöver gödslas. Mycket arbete läggs på att utveckla foder och utfodringsstrategier som maximerar utfodrade djurs förmåga att ta upp och behålla näringsämnen. Men vissa näringsämnen går oundvikligen förlorade i urin, avföring och oätet foder. I dag använder alla former av jordbruk i Sverige näringsämnen på ett effektivare sätt än vad som gjordes tidigare, detta gäller även för vattenbruket. Därför är äldre studier av vattenbrukets miljöpåverkan inte längre fullständigt relevanta eftersom industrin använder näringsämnen mer effektivt än tidigare.Fosfor och kväve är de två huvudsakliga näringsämnena som släpps ut i miljön genom matproduktion. När dessa näringsämnen kommer ut i sötvatten eller i havet kan de bidra till ett problem som kallas "övergödning". Näringsämnen är gödningsmedel som främjar ökad tillväxt i vatten av exempelvis alger och andra växter. När dessa växter dör och sjunker till botten kan de orsaka ytterligare problem, inklusive förbrukning av syre i vattnet, försämring av sedimentkvaliteten och förlust av biologisk mångfald.I svenska fjällsjöar och vattenkraftsmagasin är fosfor typiskt sett det vanligaste begränsande näringsämnet. Eventuella ytterligare fosfortillsatser kan därmed bidra till ökad tillväxt i vattnet och en för stor tillförsel av näringsämnen kommer att orsaka övergödning. Att kvantifiera påverkan på vatten- och sedimentkvalitet vid öppen kassodling i sötvattensförhållanden som är typiska för norra Sverige är en pusselbit på vägen mot en ökad hållbarhet för vattenbruket.I den här rapporten, där studien är finansierad av Jordbruksverket, fokuserar vi på fosfor och dess omvandling i miljön vid fiskodling i öppna kassar. Vi svarar på tre frågor: hur mycket fosfor släpps ut vid fiskodling? Vad händer med fosforn efter att det släppts ut? Hur lång tid tar det för miljön att återhämta sig efter att en fiskodling upphört? Vi fann att drygt hälften (54 %) av fosforn som finns i ett kommersiellt foder släpps ut i miljön. Cirka 1/5 (21 %) av fosforn i fodret kommer sannolikt att bidra till en omedelbar växttillväxt, medan cirka 1/3 (33 %) kommer att deponeras i sedimentet under odlingskassarna.Internationella studier har visat att näringsämnen som frigörs vid vattenbruk i öppna kassar under vissa omständigheter kan ha positiva effekter, särskilt i näringsfattiga system. Dessa fynd kan vara relevanta för svenska vattenkraftmagasin.Att veta vad som händer med fosforn i sedimentet är nyckeln till att förstå den långsiktiga miljöpåverkan från fiskodlingar. Våra resultat antyder att cirka 2/3 (70 %) av fosforn i sediment under fiskodlingar inte kommer att läcka ut. Av de 30 % som kan läcka kommer potentiellt cirka 10 % (dvs. 3 % av totalen) släppas ut varje år. Våra resultat antyder att dagens vattenbruk i öppna kassar är mindre förorenande än det var tidigare. De lyfter också fram behovet av ytterligare arbete med foderutveckling i framtiden samt behovet av en ökad förståelse kring var de näringsämnen som frigörs vid fiskodling tar vägen.Kunskap om miljöpåverkan från fiskodling i öppna kassar i kalla, näringsfattiga system behöver göras tillgänglig och kommuniceras till svenska intressenter. Specifikt behöver vi dokumentera den nuvarande vetenskapliga förståelsen för vart det fosfor (P) som släpps ut vid fiskodling i öppna kassar tar vägen i vatten och sediment. Vi behöver också dokumentera och utvärdera andra nationella eller internationella studier som kan bidra till att förstå den nuvarande svenska situationen. Vi behöver veta mer om den långsiktiga depositionen av det fosfor som frigörs vid fiskodling, inklusive den tid det tar för återhämtning efter att fiskodlingen upphört.
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4.
  • Baho, Didier Ludovic, et al. (författare)
  • Assessing temporal scales and patterns in time series: Comparing methods based on redundancy analysis
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Ecological Complexity. - : Elsevier BV. - 1476-945X. ; 22, s. 162-168
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Time-series modelling techniques are powerful tools for studying temporal scaling structures and dynamics present in ecological and other complex systems and are gaining popularity for assessing resilience quantitatively. Among other methods, canonical ordinations based on redundancy analysis are increasingly used for determining temporal scaling patterns that are inherent in ecological data. However, modelling outcomes and thus inference about ecological dynamics and resilience may vary depending on the approaches used. In this study, we compare the statistical performance, logical consistency and information content of two approaches: (i) asymmetric eigenvector maps (AEM) that account for linear trends and (ii) symmetric distance-based Moran's eigenvector maps (MEM), which requires detrending of raw data to remove linear trends prior to analysis. Our comparison is done using long-term water quality data (25 years) from three Swedish lakes. This data set therefore provides the opportunity for assessing how the modelling approach used affects performance and inference in time series modelling. We found that AEM models had consistently more explanatory power than MEM, and in two out of three lakes AEM extracted one more temporal scale than MEM. The scale-specific patterns detected by AEM and MEM were uncorrelated. Also individual water quality variables explaining these patterns differed between methods, suggesting that inferences about systems dynamics are dependent on modelling approach. These findings suggest that AEM might be more suitable for assessing dynamics in time series analysis compared to MEM when temporal trends are relevant. The AEM approach is logically consistent with temporal autocorrelation where earlier conditions can influence later conditions but not vice versa. The symmetric MEM approach, which ignores the asymmetric nature of time, might be suitable for addressing specific questions about the importance of correlations in fluctuation patterns where there are no confounding elements of linear trends or a need to assess causality. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
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5.
  • Baho, Didier Ludovic, et al. (författare)
  • Microplastics in terrestrial ecosystems: Moving beyond the state of the art to minimize the risk of ecological surprise
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 27, s. 3969-3986
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Microplastic (plastic particles measuring <5mm) pollution is ubiquitous. Unlike in other well-studied ecosystems, for example, marine and freshwater environments, microplastics in terrestrial systems are relatively understudied. Their potential impacts on terrestrial environments, in particular the risk of causing ecological surprise, must be better understood and quantified. Ecological surprise occurs when ecosystem behavior deviates radically from expectations and generally has negative consequences for ecosystem services. The properties and behavior of microplastics within terrestrial environments may increase their likelihood of causing ecological surprises as they (a) are highly persistent global pollutants that will last for centuries, (b) can interact with the abiotic environment in a complex manner, (c) can impact terrestrial organisms directly or indirectly and (d) interact with other contaminants and can facilitate their transport. Here, we compiled findings of previous research on microplastics in terrestrial environments. We systematically focused on studies addressing different facets of microplastics related to their distribution, dispersion, impact on soil characteristics and functions, levels of biological organization of tested terrestrial biota (single species vs. assemblages), scale of experimental study and corresponding ecotoxicological effects. Our systematic assessment of previous microplastic research revealed that most studies have been conducted on single species under laboratory conditions with short-term exposures; few studies were conducted under more realistic long-term field conditions and/or with multi-species assemblages. Studies targeting multi-species assemblages primarily considered soil bacterial communities and showed that microplastics can alter essential nutrient cycling functions. More ecologically meaningful studies of terrestrial microplastics encompassing multi-species assemblages, critical ecological processes (e.g., biogeochemical cycles and pollination) and interactions with other anthropogenic stressors must be conducted. Addressing these knowledge gaps will provide a better understanding of microplastics as emerging global stressors and should lower the risk of ecological surprise in terrestrial ecosystems.
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6.
  • Collentine, Dennis, et al. (författare)
  • Realising the potential of natural water retention measures in catchment flood management: trade-offs and matching interests
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Journal of Flood Risk Management. - : Wiley. - 1753-318X. ; 11, s. 76-84
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Natural water retention measures (NWRM) are a multifunctional form of green infrastructure that can play an important role in catchment-scale flood risk management. While green infrastructure based on natural processes is increasingly recognised as being complementary to traditional flood control strategies based on grey infrastructure in urban areas, there are a number of outstanding challenges with their widespread uptake. At a catchment scale, it is widely accepted that NWRM in upstream areas based on the concept of 'keeping the rain where it falls' can help reduce the risk of downstream flooding by enhancing or restoring natural hydrological processes including interception, evapotranspiration, infiltration, and ponding. However, both the magnitude of flood risk reduction and the institutional structures needed for widespread uptake of NWRM are inadequately understood. Implementing NWRM can involve trade-offs, especially in agricultural areas. Measures based on drainage management and short rotation forestry may help 'keep the rain where it falls' but can result in foregone farm income. To identify situations where the implementation of NWRM may be warranted, an improved understanding of the likely reductions in downstream urban flood risk, the required institutional structures for risk management and transfer, and mutually acceptable farm compensation schemes are all needed.
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7.
  • Dahlgren Strååt, Kim (författare)
  • Simulating Transport and Understanding Future Fluxes of Organic Carbon in Rivers Draining into the Baltic Sea
  • 2017
  • Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • Riverine organic (TOC, Total Organic Carbon) and inorganic (DIC, Dissolved Inorganic Carbon) carbon are the main sources of carbon in the Baltic Sea. While the importance of this contribution has been evaluated, there are currently several gaps in our knowledge of the mechanisms governing organic carbon dynamics in this region, especially for the particulate form, and the impact of future climate change on organic carbon transport. This licentiate thesis addresses this research deficit by (1) developing a model for assessing the flux of particulate organic carbon (POC), and by (2) simulating the potential climate effects on the transport and fate of TOC, both particulate and dissolved organic carbon, in the Baltic Sea environment.Study I developed a novel dynamic model for simulating the generation and transport of POC in all the major rivers discharging into the Baltic Sea. The POC load was assessed using algorithms for the processes governing the input i.e. erosion, litterfall and in-stream primary production. Using daily information on precipitation and temperature, the water discharge from each river was calculated. The total annual POC load from the Baltic Sea drainage basin was predicted within a factor of about 2 and was estimated to be 0.34 Tg POC, or 7-10 % of the annual TOC. The prediction of the timing of the monthly peak loads, however, was hampered by the current lack of field measurements of POC loads to the Baltic Sea.Study II assessed the potential future climate effects on riverine TOC (particulate and dissolved organic carbon, DOC) in the Baltic Sea drainage basin. A small decrease in POC load (-7 %) was predicted and no changes in DOC load on an annual and total basin scale, but the simulations showed significant variations between seasons and across sub-basins by the end of this century. Seasonal total loads were predicted to increase in winter and decrease in summer. Due to counterbalancing increases and decreases in predicted TOC loads in various parts of the Baltic Sea catchment, the impact of climate change on the total carbon budget in this region was limited. However, our simulation results indicated significant differences over time in POC and DOC export across the six Baltic Sea sub-basins, and an altered seasonal pattern in the timing and magnitude of the delivery.This thesis comprises a first attempt to better describe the mechanisms and dynamics of OC generation and transport in the Baltic Sea catchment and assess the potential climate effects on the transport with a spatiotemporal resolution. The work provides a starting point for further development of the understanding of large scale organic carbon export and how it may be affected in the future. This thesis also discuss the role of riverine organic carbon in biogeochemical processes, food web structures and contaminant transport in inland, coastal and marine waters.
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8.
  • de Sá, Luis, et al. (författare)
  • Studies of the effects of microplastics on aquatic organisms: What do we know and where should we focus our efforts in the future?
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 645, s. 1029-1039
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The effects of microplastics (MP) on aquatic organisms are currently the subject of intense research. Here, we provide a critical perspective on published studies of MP ingestion by aquatic biota. We summarize the available research on MP presence, behaviour and effects on aquatic organisms monitored in the field and on laboratory studies of the ecotoxicological consequences of MP ingestion. We consider MP polymer type, shape, size as well as group of organisms studied and type of effect reported. Specifically, we evaluate whether or not the available laboratory studies of MP are representative of the types of MPs found in the environment and whether or not they have reported on relevant groups or organisms. Analysis of the available data revealed that 1) despite their widespread detection in field-based studies, polypropylene, polyester and polyamide particles were under-represented in laboratory studies; 2) fibres and fragments (800-1600 mu m) are the most common form of MPs reported in animals collected from the field; 3) to date, most studies have been conducted on fish; knowledge is needed about the effects of MPs on other groups of organisms, especially invertebrates. Furthermore, there are significant mismatches between the types of MP most commonly found in the environment or reported in field studies and those used in laboratory experiments. Finally, there is an overarching need to understand the mechanism of action and ecotoxicological effects of environmentally relevant concentrations of MPs on aquatic organism health. (c) 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
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9.
  • de Wit, Heleen A., et al. (författare)
  • Current Browning of Surface Waters Will Be Further Promoted by Wetter Climate
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY LETTERS. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 2328-8930. ; 3:12, s. 430-435
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Browning of surface waters because of increasing terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (OC) concentrations is a concern for drinking water providers and can impact land carbon storage. We show that positive trends in OC in 474 streams, lakes, and rivers in boreal and subarctic ecosystems in Norway, Sweden, and Finland between 1990 and 2013 are surprisingly constant across climatic gradients and catchment sizes (median, +1.4% year(-1); interquartile range, +0.8-2.0% year(-1)), implying that water bodies across the entire landscape are browning. The largest trends (median, +1.7% year(-1)) were found in regions impacted by strong reductions in sulfur deposition, while subarctic regions showed the least browning (median, +0.8% year(-1)). In dry regions, precipitation was a strong and positive driver of OC concentrations, declining in strength moving toward high rainfall sites. We estimate that a 10% increase in precipitation will increase mobilization of OC from soils to freshwaters by at least 30%, demonstrating the importance of climate wetting for the carbon cycle. We conclude that upon future increases in precipitation, current browning trends will continue across the entire aquatic continuum, requiring expensive adaptations in drinking water plants, increasing land to sea export of carbon, and impacting aquatic productivity and greenhouse gas emissions.
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10.
  • Djodjic, Faruk, et al. (författare)
  • Cost effectiveness of nutrient retention in constructed wetlands at a landscape level
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Journal of Environmental Management. - : Elsevier BV. - 0301-4797 .- 1095-8630. ; 324
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Since 1990, over 13 000 ha of constructed wetlands (CWs) have been implemented to increase biodiversity and reduce nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loads to Swedish waters. Despite the considerable number of CWs and ambitious investments planned for the coming three years, there is limited follow up of cost-efficiency of catchment- and landscape-scale nutrient retention by existing CWs. Such follow up evaluation could provide clear guidance regarding optimal size and location of future CWs. We present a three-step modelling approach to assess cost-efficiency of 233 CWs in two Swedish regions (East, 4321 km2, and West, 916 km2). Modelled nutrient retention in CWs was predominantly low, especially in the East, due to their suboptimal location in catchments, e.g., with inadequate upstream areas (low hydraulic loads) and/or low share of arable land (low nutrient loads). Suboptimal location of CWs generates both higher than necessary costs and low area-specific nutrient retention, leading to low cost-efficiency. Some high cost-efficiency CWs were identified, especially for N retention in the West. To increase their cost-efficiency, continued investments in CWs require clear guidance and instructions. To achieve optimal placement, both CW site and size in relation to incoming hydraulic and nutrient loads must be considered.
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11.
  • Djodjic, Faruk, et al. (författare)
  • Suspenderat material –transporter och betydelsen för andra vattenkvalitetsparametrar
  • 2012
  • Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • Erosion och transport av suspenderat material i vatten är i Sverige sällan av en sådan omfattning att det utgör ett allvarligt storskaligt miljöproblem. I vissa fall kan dock suspenderat material och ökad grumlighet ha direkta negativa effekter på akvatiska ekosystem genom t. ex. påverkan på fisklek, utslagning av filtrerare som t.ex. stormusslor och minskad primärproduktion och därmed minskad födotillgång. Sedimentering av partiklar kan också förändra livsförutsättningarna för bottenfauna vilket kan resultera i förändrad artsammansättning. Dessutom är suspenderat material som bärare av näringsämnen, främst fosfor, och även andra ämnen (som t. ex. metaller, bekämpningsmedel, organiska miljögifter mm) mycket betydelsefull för de totala transporterade mängderna av dessa ämnen. I SMED-kontexten är det intressant att vidare studera transport av suspenderat material eftersom både fosfor-och metalltransporter påverkas av dessa processer.Syftet med denna studie är att sammanställa och utvärdera befintlig litteratur och data över sedimenttransport i Sverige och kopplingar till fosfor och eventuellt andra ämnen samt att försöka fördjupa vår förståelse av transportdynamiken genom att modellera vatten och sedimenttransport.Statistiska signifikanta samband mellan halter och transport av suspenderat materi-al och dominerande jordarter i tillrinningsområden hittades både för små jord-bruksdominerade avrinningsområden och för större områden. Högre andel lerjordar resulterade i högre halter/transporter av suspenderat material vilket tyder på en högre erosionsbenägenhet av lerjordar jämfört med grövre sandjordar. För de större avrinningsområdena fanns även ett positivt och statistiskt signifikant samband med andel åkermark i tillrinningsområdet.Olika angreppssätt med modellering testades för Sävjaåns avrinningsområde. För det första visade en analys av olika delar av den hydrologiska cykeln med hjälp av FyrisQ-modellen på två intressanta samband. Högre halter av suspenderat material var kopplade till perioder då blötare förhållanden rådde i avrinningsområdet samt vid snösmältningsepisoder. För det andra, tillämpades INCA-Sed modellen för första gången i Sverige. Denna tillämpning visar att modellen kan vara användbar för att öka förståelsen av mobilisering och transport av sediment under svenska förhållanden, även om fler studier behövs för att öka tillförlitligheten och minska osäkerheterna
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12.
  • Eklöf, Karin, et al. (författare)
  • Land-use dominates climate controls on nitrogen and phosphorus export from managed and natural Nordic headwater catchments
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Hydrological Processes. - : Wiley. - 0885-6087 .- 1099-1085. ; 34, s. 4831-4850
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Agricultural, forestry-impacted and natural catchments are all vectors of nutrient loading in the Nordic countries. Here, we present concentrations and fluxes of total nitrogen (totN) and phosphorus (totP) from 69 Nordic headwater catchments (Denmark: 12, Finland:18, Norway:17, Sweden:22) between 2000 and 2018. Catchments span the range of Nordic climatic and environmental conditions and include natural sites and sites impacted by agricultural and forest management. Concentrations and fluxes of totN and totP were highest in agricultural catchments, intermediate in forestry-impacted and lowest in natural catchments, and were positively related %agricultural land cover and summer temperature. Summer temperature may be a proxy for terrestrial productivity, while %agricultural land cover might be a proxy for catchment nutrient inputs. A regional trend analysis showed significant declines in N concentrations and export across agricultural (-15 mu g totN L-1 year(-1)) and natural (-0.4 mu g NO3-N L-1 year(-1)) catchments, but individual sites displayed few long-term trends in concentrations (totN: 22%, totP: 25%) or export (totN: 6%, totP: 9%). Forestry-impacted sites had a significant decline in totP (-0.1 mu g P L-1 year(-1)). A small but significant increase in totP fluxes (+0.4 kg P km(-2) year(-1)) from agricultural catchments was found, and countries showed contrasting patterns. Trends in annual concentrations and fluxes of totP and totN could not be explained in a straightforward way by changes in runoff or climate. Explanations for the totN decline include national mitigation measures in agriculture international policy to reduced air pollution and, possibly, large-scale increases in forest growth. Mitigation to reduce phosphorus appears to be more challenging than for nitrogen. If the green shift entails intensification of agricultural and forest production, new challenges for protection of water quality will emerge possible exacerbated by climate change. Further analysis of headwater totN and totP export should include seasonal trends, aquatic nutrient species and a focus on catchment nutrient inputs.
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13.
  • Eklöf, Karin, et al. (författare)
  • Parsimonious Model for Simulating Total Mercury and Methylmercury in Boreal Streams Based on Riparian Flow Paths and Seasonality
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Environmental Science and Technology. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 0013-936X .- 1520-5851. ; 49:13, s. 7851-7859
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The complexity of mercury (Hg) biogeochemistry has made it difficult to model surface water concentrations of both total Hg (THg) and especially methylmercury (MeHg), the species of Hg having the highest potential for bioaccumulation. To simulate THg and MeHg variation in low-order streams, we have adapted a conceptual modeling framework where a continuum of lateral flows through riparian soils determines streamflow concentrations. The model was applied to seven forest catchments located in two boreal regions in Sweden spanning a range of climatic, soil, and forest management conditions. Discharge, and simulated riparian soil water concentrations profiles, represented by two calibrated parameters, were able to explain much of the variability of THg and MeHg concentrations in the streams issuing from the catchments (Nash Sutcliffe (NS) up to 0.54 for THg and 0.58 for MeHg). Model performance for all catchments was improved (NS up to 0.76 for THg and 0.85 for MeHg) by adding two to four parameters to represent seasonality in riparian soil water THg and MeHg concentrations profiles. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that riparian flow-pathways and seasonality in riparian soil concentrations are the major controls on temporal variation of THg and MeHg concentrations in low-order streams.
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15.
  • Ellison, David, et al. (författare)
  • On the forest cover-water yield debate : from demand- to supply-side thinking
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 18:3, s. 806-820
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Several major articles from the past decade and beyond conclude the impact of reforestation or afforestation on water yield is negative: additional forest cover will reduce and removing forests will raise downstream water availability. A second group of authors argue the opposite: planting additional forests should raise downstream water availability and intensify the hydrologic cycle. Obtaining supporting evidence for this second group of authors has been more difficult due to the larger scales at which the positive effects of forests on the water cycle may be seen. We argue that forest cover is inextricably linked to precipitation. Forest-driven evapotranspiration removed from a particular catchment contributes to the availability of atmospheric moisture vapor and its cross-continental transport, raising the likelihood of precipitation events and increasing water yield, in particular in continental interiors more distant from oceans. Seasonal relationships heighten the importance of this phenomenon. We review the arguments from different scales and perspectives. This clarifies the generally beneficial relationship between forest cover and the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. While evidence supports both sides of the argument trees can reduce runoff at the small catchment scale at larger scales, trees are more clearly linked to increased precipitation and water availability. Progressive deforestation, land conversion from forest to agriculture and urbanization have potentially negative consequences for global precipitation, prompting us to think of forest ecosystems as global public goods. Policy-making attempts to measure product water footprints, estimate the value of ecosystem services, promote afforestation, develop drought mitigation strategies and otherwise manage land use must consider the linkage of forests to the supply of precipitation.
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16.
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17.
  • Evans, Chris D., et al. (författare)
  • Variability in organic carbon reactivity across lake residence time and trophic gradients
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Nature Geoscience. - 1752-0894 .- 1752-0908. ; 10:11, s. 832-835
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The transport of dissolved organic carbon from land to ocean is a large dynamic component of the global carbon cycle. Inland waters are hotspots for organic matter turnover, via both biological and photochemical processes, and mediate carbon transfer between land, oceans and atmosphere. However, predicting dissolved organic carbon reactivity remains problematic. Here we present in situ dissolved organic carbon budget data from 82 predominantly European and North American water bodies with varying nutrient concentrations and water residence times ranging from one week to 700 years. We find that trophic status strongly regulates whether water bodies act as net dissolved organic carbon sources or sinks, and that rates of both dissolved organic carbon production and consumption can be predicted from water residence time. Our results suggest a dominant role of rapid light-driven removal in water bodies with a short water residence time, whereas in water bodies with longer residence times, slower biotic production and consumption processes are dominant and counterbalance one another. Eutrophication caused lakes to transition from sinks to sources of dissolved organic carbon. We conclude that rates and locations of dissolved organic carbon processing and associated CO2 emissions in inland waters may be misrepresented in global carbon budgets if temporal and spatial reactivity gradients are not accounted for.
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18.
  • Fried-Petersen, Hannah, et al. (författare)
  • Drivers of long-term invertebrate community stability in changing Swedish lakes
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 26, s. 1259-1270
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Research on ecosystem stability has had a strong focus on local systems. However, environmental change often occurs slowly at broad spatial scales, which requires regional-level assessments of long-term stability. In this study, we assess the stability of macroinvertebrate communities across 105 lakes in the Swedish "lakescape." Using a hierarchical mixed-model approach, we first evaluate the environmental pressures affecting invertebrate communities in two ecoregions (north, south) using a 23 year time series (1995-2017) and then examine how a set of environmental and physical variables affect the stability of these communities. Results show that lake latitude, size, total phosphorus and alkalinity affect community composition in northern and southern lakes. We find that lake stability is affected by species richness and lake size in both ecoregions and alkalinity and total phosphorus in northern lakes. There is large heterogeneity in the patterns of community stability of individual lakes, but relationships between that stability and environmental drivers begin to emerge when the lakescape, composed of many discrete lakes, is the focal unit of study. The results of this study highlight that broad-scale comparisons in combination with long time series are essential to understand the effects of environmental change on the stability of lake communities in space and time.
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19.
  • Futter, Martyn (författare)
  • A cost-effectiveness analysis of water security and water quality: impacts of climate and land-use change on the River Thames system
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Philosophical Transactions A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences. - : The Royal Society. - 1364-503X .- 1471-2962. ; 371
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The catchment of the River Thames, the principal river system in southern England, provides the main water supply for London but is highly vulnerable to changes in climate, land use and population. The river is eutrophic with significant algal blooms with phosphorus assumed to be the primary chemical indicator of ecosystem health. In the Thames Basin, phosphorus is available from point sources such as wastewater treatment plants and from diffuse sources such as agriculture. In order to predict vulnerability to future change, the integrated catchments model for phosphorus (INCA-P) has been applied to the river basin and used to assess the cost-effectiveness of a range of mitigation and adaptation strategies. It is shown that scenarios of future climate and land-use change will exacerbate the water quality problems, but a range of mitigation measures can improve the situation. A cost-effectiveness study has been undertaken to compare the economic benefits of each mitigation measure and to assess the phosphorus reductions achieved. The most effective strategy is to reduce fertilizer use by 20% together with the treatment of effluent to a high standard. Such measures will reduce the instream phosphorus concentrations to close to the EU Water Framework Directive target for the Thames.
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20.
  • Futter, Martyn (författare)
  • A theoretical assessment of microplastic transport in river catchments and their retention by soils and river sediments
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Environmental Science: Processes and Impacts. - : Royal Society of Chemistry (RSC). - 2050-7887 .- 2050-7895. ; 18, s. 1050-1059
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The presence of microplastics (MPs) in the environment is a problem of growing concern. While research has focused on MP occurrence and impacts in the marine environment, very little is known about their release on land, storage in soils and sediments and transport by run-off and rivers. This study describes a first theoretical assessment of these processes. A mathematical model of catchment hydrology, soil erosion and sediment budgets was upgraded to enable description of MP fate. The Thames River in the UK was used as a case study. A general lack of data on MP emissions to soils and rivers and the mass of MPs in agricultural soils, limits the present work to serve as a purely theoretical, nevertheless rigorous, assessment that can be used to guide future monitoring and impact evaluations. The fundamental assumption on which modelling is based is that the same physical controls on soil erosion and natural sediment transport (for which model calibration and validation are possible), also control MP transport and storage. Depending on sub-catchment soil characteristics and precipitation patterns, approximately 16-38% of the heavier-than-water MPs hypothetically added to soils (e.g. through routine applications of sewage sludge) are predicted to be stored locally. In the stream, MPs < 0.2 mm are generally not retained, regardless of their density. Larger MPs with densities marginally higher than water can instead be retained in the sediment. It is, however, anticipated that high flow periods can remobilize this pool. Sediments of river sections experiencing low stream power are likely hotspots for deposition of MPs. Exposure and impact assessments should prioritize these environments.
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21.
  • Futter, Martyn (författare)
  • Almost 50 years of monitoring shows that climate, not forestry, controls long-term organic carbon fluxes in a large boreal watershed
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 20, s. 1225-1237
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Here, we use a unique long-term data set on total organic carbon (TOC) fluxes, its climatic drivers and effects of land management from a large boreal watershed in northern Finland. TOC and runoff have been monitored at several sites in the Simojoki watershed (3160km(2)) since the early 1960s. Annual TOC fluxes have increased significantly together with increased inter-annual variability. Acid deposition in the area has been low and has not significantly influenced losses of TOC. Forest management, including ditching and clear felling, had a minor influence on TOC fluxes - seasonal and long-term patterns in TOC were controlled primarily by changes in soil frost, seasonal precipitation, drought, and runoff. Deeper soil frost led to lower spring TOC concentrations in the river. Summer TOC concentrations were positively correlated with precipitation and soil moisture not temperature. There is some indication that drought conditions led to elevated TOC concentrations and fluxes in subsequent years (1998-2000). A sensitivity analysis of the INCA-C model results showed the importance of landscape position, land-use type, and soil temperature as controls of modeled TOC concentrations. Model predictions were not sensitive to forest management. Our results are contradictory to some earlier plot-scale and small catchment studies that have shown more profound forest management impacts on TOC fluxes. This shows the importance of scale when assessing the mechanisms controlling TOC fluxes and concentrations. The results highlight the value of long-term multiple data sets to better understand ecosystem response to land management, climate change and extremes in northern ecosystems.
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22.
  • Futter, Martyn (författare)
  • An INCA model for pathogens in rivers and catchments: Model structure, sensitivity analysis and application to the River Thames catchment, UK
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 572, s. 1601-1610
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Pathogens are an ongoing issue for catchment water management and quantifying their transport, loss and potential impacts at key locations, such as water abstractions for public supply and bathing sites, is an important aspect of catchment and coastal management. The Integrated Catchment Model (INCA) has been adapted to model the sources and sinks of pathogens and to capture the dominant dynamics and processes controlling pathogens in catchments. The model simulates the stores of pathogens in soils, sediments, rivers and groundwaters and can account for diffuse inputs of pathogens from agriculture, urban areas or atmospheric deposition. The model also allows for point source discharges from intensive livestock units or from sewage treatment works or any industrial input to river systems. Model equations are presented and the new pathogens model has been applied to the River Thames in order to assess total coliform (TC) responses under current and projected future land use. A Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis indicates that the input coliform estimates from agricultural sources and decay rates are the crucial parameters controlling pathogen behaviour. Whilst there are a number of uncertainties associated with the model that should be accounted for, INCA-Pathogens potentially provides a useful tool to inform policy decisions and manage pathogen loading in river systems. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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23.
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24.
  • Futter, Martyn (författare)
  • Assessing the impacts of climate change and socio-economic changes on flow and phosphorus flux in the Ganga river system
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Environmental Science: Processes and Impacts. - : Royal Society of Chemistry (RSC). - 2050-7887 .- 2050-7895. ; 17, s. 1098-1110
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Anthropogenic climate change has impacted and will continue to impact the natural environment and people around the world. Increasing temperatures and altered rainfall patterns combined with socio-economic factors such as population changes, land use changes and water transfers will affect flows and nutrient fluxes in river systems. The Ganga river, one of the largest river systems in the world, supports approximately 10% global population and more than 700 cities. Changes in the Ganga river system are likely to have a significant impact on water availability, water quality, aquatic habitats and people. In order to investigate these potential changes on the flow and water quality of the Ganga river, a multi-branch version of INCA Phosphorus (INCA-P) model has been applied to the entire river system. The model is used to quantify the impacts from a changing climate, population growth, additional agricultural land, pollution control and water transfers for 2041-2060 and 2080-2099. The results provide valuable information about potential effects of different management strategies on catchment water quality.
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25.
  • Futter, Martyn (författare)
  • Assessment of contaminant fate in catchments using a novel integrated hydrobiogeochemical-multimedia fate model
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 544, s. 553-563
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Models for pollution exposure assessment typically adopt an overly simplistic representation of geography, climate and biogeochemical processes. This strategy is unsatisfactory when high temporal resolution simulations for sub-regional spatial domains are performed, in which parameters defining scenarios can vary interdependently in space and time. This is, for example, the case when assessing the influence of biogeochemical processing on contaminant fate. Here we present INCA-Contaminants, the Integrated Catchments model for Contaminants; a new model that simultaneously and realistically solves mass balances of water, carbon, sediments and contaminants in the soil-stream-sediment system of catchments and their river networks as a function of climate, land use/management and contaminant properties. When forced with realistic climate and contaminant input data, the model was able to predict polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) concentrations in multiple segments of a river network in a complex landscape. We analyzed model output sensitivity to a number of hydro-biogeochemical parameters. The rate of soil organic matter mineralization was the most sensitive parameter controlling PCBs levels in river water, supporting the hypothesis that organic matter turnover rates will influence remobilization of previously deposited PCBs which had accumulated in soil organic matrix. The model was also used to project the long term fate of PCB 101 under two climate scenarios. Catchment diffuse run-off and riverine transport were the major pathways of contaminant re-mobilization. Simulations show that during the next decade the investigated boreal catchment will shift from being a net atmospheric PCB sink to a net source for air and water, with future climate perturbation having little influence on this trend. Our results highlight the importance of using credible hydro-biogeochemical simulations when modeling the fate of hydrophobic contaminants. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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26.
  • Futter, Martyn (författare)
  • Can recovery from disturbance explain observed declines in total phosphorus in Precambrian Shield catchments?
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences. - : Canadian Science Publishing. - 0706-652X .- 1205-7533. ; 73, s. 1202-1212
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The plausibility of land disturbance as a cause of declining phosphorus (P) concentrations in oligotrophic lakes within south-central Ontario, Canada, is evaluated using the process-based model INCA-P. The model was calibrated upon three catchments in the Muskoka-Haliburton region (MHR): Harp (HP), Dickie (DE), and Plastic (PC), which have varying degrees of declining P export and different forms of historic disturbances (timber harvesting, tree death, and soil acidification, respectively). Hindcasts (1978-2007) were run with and without simulated disturbances. Model performance of both DE and HP was greatly improved when effects of wetland tree deaths (DE) and harvesting (HP) were included. In PC, with no record of timber harvesting and relatively minor declines in P, initial hindcasts successfully accounted for the majority of interannual P fluxes, and performance was only marginally improved through the simulation of soil acidification. Vegetation decay, harvesting, and catchment acidification accounted for 63%, 24%, and 0.6%, respectively, of P export over the past 30 years. Of all disturbances, wetland vegetation death had the highest impact on areal P exports, indicating that riparian stability is particularly important.
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27.
  • Futter, Martyn (författare)
  • Commentary: A (Mostly) Hydrological Commentary on the Small Retention Programs in the Polish Forests
  • 2019
  • Annan publikation (refereegranskat)abstract
    • From a hydrological perspective, flood risk management (FRM) is simple: reduce the height of the flood peak and the flood risk is reduced. In reality, a huge number of biophysical and societal factors complicate the process and many of the possible solutions are documented in national languages or otherwise inaccessible to a broad international audience. The Polish forest small retention program is unique in its manner of addressing these factors. The contribution of Matczak et al. (this volume) is especially welcome as it contributes to the English language literature on practical measures for upstream water retention so as to reduce downstream flood risk. While there are a few publications in English about the Polish programme, the voluminous Polish language literature is a treasure trove of useful information for forest managers interested in water retention as well as water managers who are interested in the flood reduction potential of the forest landscape.
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28.
  • Futter, Martyn, et al. (författare)
  • Conceptualizing and communicating management effects on forest water quality
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 45, s. S188-S202
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We present a framework for evaluating and communicating effects of human activity on water quality in managed forests. The framework is based on the following processes: atmospheric deposition, weathering, accumulation, recirculation and flux. Impairments to water quality are characterized in terms of their extent, longevity and frequency. Impacts are communicated using a "traffic lights" metaphor for characterizing severity of water quality impairments arising from forestry and other anthropogenic pressures. The most serious impairments to water quality in managed boreal forests include (i) forestry activities causing excessive sediment mobilization and extirpation of aquatic species and (ii) other anthropogenic pressures caused by long-range transport of mercury and acidifying pollutants. The framework and tool presented here can help evaluate, summarize and communicate the most important issues in circumstances where land management and other anthropogenic pressures combine to impair water quality and may also assist in implementing the "polluter pays" principle.
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29.
  • Futter, Martyn, et al. (författare)
  • Consequences of nitrate leaching following stem-only harvesting of Swedish forests are dependent on spatial scale
  • 2010
  • Ingår i: Environmental Pollution. - : Elsevier BV. - 0269-7491 .- 1873-6424. ; 158:12, s. 3552-3559
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Short-term increases in soil solution nitrate (NO3-) concentration are often observed after forest harvest, even in N-limited systems. We model NO3- leaching below the rooting zone as a function of site productivity. Using national forest inventories and published estimates of N attenuation in rivers and the riparian zone, we estimate effects of stem-only harvesting on NO3- leaching to groundwater, surface waters and the marine environment. Stem-only harvesting is a minor contributor to NO3- pollution of Swedish waters. Effects in surface waters are rapidly diluted downstream, but can be locally important for shallow well-waters as well as for the total amount of N reaching the sea. Harvesting adds approximately 8 Gg NO3-N to soil waters in Sweden, with local concentrations up to 7 mg NO3-N 1(-1). Of that, similar to 3.3 Gg reaches the marine environment. This is similar to 3% of the overall Swedish N load to the Baltic. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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30.
  • Futter, Martyn (författare)
  • Controls on inorganic nitrogen leaching from Finnish catchments assessed using a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the INCA-N model
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Boreal Environment Research. - 1239-6095 .- 1797-2469. ; 18, s. 373-386
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The semi-distributed, dynamic INCA-N model was used to simulate the behaviour of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) in two Finnish research catchments. Parameter sensitivity and model structural uncertainty were analysed using generalized sensitivity analysis. The Mustajoki catchment is a forested upstream catchment, while the Savijoki catchment represents intensively cultivated lowlands. In general, there were more influential parameters in Savijoki than Mustajoki. Model results were sensitive to N-transformation rates, vegetation dynamics, and soil and river hydrology. Values of the sensitive parameters were based on long-term measurements covering both warm and cold years. The highest measured DIN concentrations fell between minimum and maximum values estimated during the uncertainty analysis. The lowest measured concentrations fell outside these bounds, suggesting that some retention processes may be missing from the current model structure. The lowest concentrations occurred mainly during low flow periods; so effects on total loads were small.
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31.
  • Futter, Martyn, et al. (författare)
  • Currently legislated decreases in nitrogen deposition will yield only limited plant species recovery in European forests
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 13
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Atmospheric nitrogen (N) pollution is considered responsible for a substantial decline in plant species richness and for altered community structures in terrestrial habitats worldwide. Nitrogen affects habitats through direct toxicity, soil acidification, and in particular by favoring fast-growing species. Pressure from N pollution is decreasing in some areas. In Europe (EU28), overall emissions ofNO(x) declined by more than 50% while NH3 declined by less than 30% between the years 1990 and 2015, and further decreases may be achieved. The timescale over which these improvements will affect ecosystems is uncertain. Here we use 23 European forest research sites with high quality long-term data on deposition, climate, soil recovery, and understory vegetation to assess benefits of currently legislated N deposition reductions in forest understory vegetation. A dynamic soil model coupled to a statistical plant species niche model was applied with site-based climate and deposition. We use indicators of N deposition and climate warming effects such as the change in the occurrence of oligophilic, acidophilic, and cold-tolerant plant species to compare the present with projections for 2030 and 2050. The decrease in N deposition under current legislation emission (CLE) reduction targets until 2030 is not expected to result in a release from eutrophication. Albeit the model predictions show considerable uncertainty when compared with observations, they indicate that oligophilic forest understory plant species will further decrease. This result is partially due to confounding processes related to climate effects and to major decreases in sulphur deposition and consequent recovery from soil acidification, but shows that decreases in N deposition under CLE will most likely be insufficient to allow recovery from eutrophication.
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32.
  • Futter, Martyn (författare)
  • Development of Aerial Photos and LIDAR Data Approaches to Map Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Ditch Networks in Peat-Dominated Catchments
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering. - 0733-9437 .- 1943-4774. ; 147
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Spatiotemporal information on historical peatland drainage is needed to relate past land use to observed changes in catchment hydrology. Comprehensive knowledge of historical development of peatland management is largely unknown at the catchment scale. Aerial photos and light detection and ranging (LIDAR) data enlarge the possibilities for identifying past peatland drainage patterns. Here, our objectives are (1) to develop techniques for semiautomatically mapping the location of ditch networks in peat-dominated catchments using aerial photos and LIDAR data, and (2) to generate time series of drainage networks. Our approaches provide open-access techniques to systematically map ditches in peat-dominated catchments through time. We focused on the algorithm in such a way that we can identify the ditch networks from raw aerial images and LIDAR data based on the modification of multiple filters and number of threshold values. Such data are needed to relate spatiotemporal drainage patterns to observed changes in many northern rivers. We demonstrate our approach using data from the Simojoki River catchment (3,160 km2) in northern Finland. The catchment is dominated by forests and peatlands that were almost all drained after 1960. For two representative locations in cultivated peatland (downstream) and peatland forest (upstream) areas of the catchment; we found total ditch length density (km/km2), estimated from aerial images and LIDAR data based on our proposed algorithm, to have varied from 2% to 50% compared with the monitored ditch length available from the National Land survey of Finland (NLSF) in 2018. A different pattern of source variation in ditch network density was observed for whole-catchment estimates and for the available drained-peatland database from Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE). Despite such differences, no significant differences were found using the nonparametric Mann-Whitney U test with a 0.05 significance level based on the samples of pixel-identified ditches between (1) aerial images and NLSF vector files and (2) LIDAR data and NLSF vector files.
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33.
  • Futter, Martyn (författare)
  • Do microplastics spill on to farm soils?
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 537, s. 488-488
  • Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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34.
  • Futter, Martyn (författare)
  • Dynamic modeling of the Ganga river system: impacts of future climate and socio-economic change on flows and nitrogen fluxes in India and Bangladesh
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Environmental Science: Processes and Impacts. - : Royal Society of Chemistry (RSC). - 2050-7887 .- 2050-7895. ; 17, s. 1082-1097
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • This study investigates the potential impacts of future climate and socio-economic change on the flow and nitrogen fluxes of the Ganga river system. This is the first basin scale water quality study for the Ganga considering climate change at 25 km resolution together with socio-economic scenarios. The revised dynamic, process-based INCA model was used to simulate hydrology and water quality within the complex multi-branched river basins. All climate realizations utilized in the study predict increases in temperature and rainfall by the 2050s with significant increase by the 2090s. These changes generate associated increases in monsoon flows and increased availability of water for groundwater recharge and irrigation, but also more frequent flooding. Decreased concentrations of nitrate and ammonia are expected due to increased dilution. Different future socio-economic scenarios were found to have a significant impact on water quality at the downstream end of the Ganga. A less sustainable future resulted in a deterioration of water quality due to the pressures from higher population growth, land use change, increased sewage treatment discharges, enhanced atmospheric nitrogen deposition, and water abstraction. However, water quality was found to improve under a more sustainable strategy as envisaged in the Ganga clean-up plan.
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35.
  • Futter, Martyn, et al. (författare)
  • Ecological Instability in Lakes: A Predictable Condition?
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Environmental Science and Technology. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 0013-936X .- 1520-5851. ; 50, s. 3285-3286
  • Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • Society is threatened with an increased likelihood of unexpected and rapid loss of natural capital, increased public health risk from toxic cyanobacteria, and loss of biodiversity in lakes. Observations and models reveal that lakes can exhibit sudden, but persistent, ecological changes preceded by the erosion of ecological stability (e.g., phenomenon of “flickering” or “critical slowing down”(1)) driven by extrinsic (e.g., extreme weather events) or intrinsic (e.g., trophic interactions) pressures. This evidence is being used to develop the basis for resilience based management across other ecosystem types. However, although slow (i.e., years to centuries), ecological responses following abatement of dominant pressures are well documented (e.g., catchment nutrient load reduction(2)), the same cannot be said for sudden ecological transitions (i.e., <1 year duration). This leads to a lack of confidence in predicting such events and an inability to prevent them. This is challenging given the practical need for early detection of ecological instability required to support effective preventative management. Recent advances across three fields of freshwater ecology offer opportunities to address this issue. These include (1) detecting critical pressure thresholds using data from large populations of lakes; (2) examining the causes, forms and rates of change during past events using long-term contemporary and palaeolimnological data, and (3) using high-frequency monitoring to predict sudden transitions using statistical analogues of ecosystem stability. We offer recommendations for their use in diagnosing ecological instability in lakes.
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36.
  • Futter, Martyn, et al. (författare)
  • Ecological resilience in lakes and the conjunction fallacy
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Nature ecology & evolution. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2397-334X. ; 1, s. 1616-1624
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • There is a pressing need to apply stability and resilience theory to environmental management to restore degraded ecosystems effectively and to mitigate the effects of impending environmental change. Lakes represent excellent model case studies in this respect and have been used widely to demonstrate theories of ecological stability and resilience that are needed to underpin preventative management approaches. However, we argue that this approach is not yet fully developed because the pursuit of empirical evidence to underpin such theoretically grounded management continues in the absence of an objective probability framework. This has blurred the lines between intuitive logic (based on the elementary principles of probability) and extensional logic (based on assumption and belief) in this field.
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37.
  • Futter, Martyn (författare)
  • Effects of changing climate on the hydrology of a boreal catchment and lake DOC - probabilistic assessment of a dynamic model chain
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Boreal Environment Research. - 1239-6095 .- 1797-2469. ; 19, s. 66-82
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Uncertainty in future climate projections is widely recognised, yet few impact model studies explore the implications of this uncertainty on catchment hydrological and biogeochemical responses. Here, we report a novel model chain using HBV, INCA-C and MyLake to simulate runoff, snow dynamics, ice cover, soil moisture, lake thermal stratification and in-lake DOC concentrations in Valkea-Kotinen, a headwater lake in a forest-covered boreal catchment. Impact response surfaces (IRSs) were constructed with 63 combinations of changes in temperature (-2 degrees C to +14 degrees C) and precipitation (-10% to +50%). Superimposing probabilistic projections of climate change onto the IRSs, we illustrate the uncertainty in impacts under projected climate change. Projected climate warming is likely to result in drier soils, shorter snow and ice periods, as well as earlier onset and longer duration of lake stratification. In contrast to earlier results, in-lake DOC concentrations are projected to decrease slightly (-6%), primarily due to decreased terrestrial runoff.
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38.
  • Futter, Martyn (författare)
  • Estimating societal benefits from Nordic catchments: An integrative approach using a final ecosystem services framework
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: PLoS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 16
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Nordic catchments provide a variety of ecosystem services, from harvestable goods to mitigation of climate change and recreational possibilities. Flows of supplied ecosystem services depend on a broad range of factors, including climate, hydrology, land management and human population density. The aims of this study were: 1) to quantify the total economic value (TEV) of consumed ecosystem services across Nordic catchments, 2) to explain variation in ecosystem service value using socio-geographic and natural factors as explanatory variables in multiple linear regression, and 3) to determine which societal groups benefit from these ecosystem services. Furthermore, we tested the scientific rigour of our framework based on the concept of final ecosystem services (FES). We used a spatially explicit, integrative framework for ecosystem services quantification to compile data on final ecosystem services provision from six catchments across Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. Our estimates showed a broad variation in TEV and in the proportion contributed by separate services, with the highest TEV of euro7,199 +/- 4,561 ha(-1) y(-1) (mean +/- standard deviation) in the Norwegian Orrevassdraget catchment, and the lowest TEV of euro183 +/- 517 ha(-1) y(-1) in the Finnish Simojoki catchment. The value of material services was dependent on both geographic factors and land management practices, while the value of immaterial services was strongly dependent on population density and the availability of water. Using spatial data on land use, forest productivity and population density in a GIS analysis showed where hotspots of ecosystem services supply are located, and where specific stakeholder groups benefit most. We show that our framework is applicable to a broad variety of data sources and across countries, making international comparative analyses possible.
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39.
  • Futter, Martyn (författare)
  • Estimation of p,p'-DDT degradation in soil by modeling and constraining hydrological and biogeochemical controls
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Environmental Pollution. - : Elsevier BV. - 0269-7491 .- 1873-6424. ; 239, s. 179-188
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Despite not being used for decades in most countries, DDT remains ubiquitous in soils due to its persistence and intense past usage. Because of this it is still a pollutant of high global concern. Assessing long term dissipation of DDT from this reservoir is fundamental to understand future environmental and human exposure. Despite a large research effort, key properties controlling fate in soil (in particular, the degradation half-life (Toll)) are far from being fully quantified. This paper describes a case study in a large central European catchment where hundreds of measurements of p,p'-DDT concentrations in air, soil, river water and sediment are available for the last two decades. The goal was to deliver an integrated estimation of tau(soil) by constraining a state-of-the-art hydrobiogeochemical-multimedia fate model of the catchment against the full body of empirical data available for this area. The INCA-Contaminants model was used for this scope. Good predictive performance against an (external) dataset of water and sediment concentrations was achieved with partitioning properties taken from the literature and Toll estimates obtained from forcing the model against empirical historical data of p,p'-DDT in the catchment multicompartments. This approach allowed estimation of p,p'-DDT degradation in soil after taking adequate consideration of losses due to runoff and volatilization. Estimated tau(soil) ranged over 3000-3800 days. Degradation was the most important loss process, accounting on a yearly basis for more than 90% of the total dissipation. The total dissipation flux from the catchment soils was one order of magnitude higher than the total current atmospheric input estimated from atmospheric concentrations, suggesting that the bulk of p,p'-DDT currently being remobilized or lost is essentially that accumulated over two decades ago. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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40.
  • Futter, Martyn (författare)
  • Fate and transport of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in the River Thames catchment - Insights from a coupled multimedia fate and hydrobiogeochemical transport model
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 572, s. 1461-1470
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in riverine environments is strongly influenced by hydrology (including flooding) and fluxes of sediments and organic carbon. Coupling multimedia fate models (MMFMs) and hydrobiogeochemical transport models offers unique opportunities for understanding the environmental behaviour of POPs. While MMFMs are widely used for simulating the fate and transport of legacy and emerging pollutants, they use greatly simplified representations of climate, hydrology and biogeochemical processes. Using additional information about weather, river flows and water chemistry in hydrobiogeochemical transport models can lead to new insights about POP behaviour in rivers. As most riverine POPs are associated with suspended sediments (SS) or dissolved organic carbon (DOC), coupled models simulating SS and DOC can provide additional insights about POPs behaviour. Coupled simulations of river flow, DOC, SS and POP dynamics offer the possibility of improved predictions of contaminant fate and fluxes by leveraging the additional information in routine water quality time series. Here, we present an application of a daily time step dynamic coupled multimedia fate and hydrobiogeochemical transport model (The Integrated Catchment (INCA) Contaminants model) to simulate the behaviour of selected PCB congeners in the River Thames (UK). This is a follow-up to an earlier study where a Level III fugacity model was used to simulate PCB behaviour in the Thames. While coupled models are more complex to apply, we show that they can lead to much better representation of POPs dynamics. The present study shows the importance of accurate sediment and organic carbon simulations to successfully predict riverine PCB transport. Furthermore, it demonstrates the important impact of short-term-weather variation on PCB movement through the environment. Specifically, it shows the consequences of the severe flooding, which occurred in early 2014 on sediment PCB concentrations in the River Thames. (C) 2016 Published by Elsevier B.V.
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41.
  • Futter, Martyn, et al. (författare)
  • Flow pathways and nutrient transport mechanisms drive hydrochemical sensitivity to climate change across catchments with different geology and topography
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1027-5606 .- 1607-7938. ; 18, s. 5125-5148
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Hydrological processes determine the transport of nutrients and passage of diffuse pollution. Consequently, catchments are likely to exhibit individual hydrochemical responses (sensitivities) to climate change, which are expected to alter the timing and amount of runoff, and to impact in-stream water quality. In developing robust catchment management strategies and quantifying plausible future hydrochemical conditions it is therefore equally important to consider the potential for spatial variability in, and causal factors of, catchment sensitivity, as it is to explore future changes in climatic pressures. This study seeks to identify those factors which influence hydrochemical sensitivity to climate change. A perturbed physics ensemble (PPE), derived from a series of global climate model (GCM) variants with specific climate sensitivities was used to project future climate change and uncertainty. Using the INtegrated CAtchment model of Phosphorus dynamics (INCA-P), we quantified potential hydrochemical responses in four neighbouring catchments (with similar land use but varying topographic and geological characteristics) in southern Ontario, Canada. Responses were assessed by comparing a 30 year baseline (1968-1997) to two future periods: 2020-2049 and 2060-2089. Although projected climate change and uncertainties were similar across these catchments, hydrochemical responses (sensitivities) were highly varied. Sensitivity was governed by quaternary geology (influencing flow pathways) and nutrient transport mechanisms. Clay-rich catchments were most sensitive, with total phosphorus (TP) being rapidly transported to rivers via overland flow. In these catchments large annual reductions in TP loads were projected. Sensitivity in the other two catchments, dominated by sandy loams, was lower due to a larger proportion of soil matrix flow, longer soil water residence times and seasonal variability in soil-P saturation. Here smaller changes in TP loads, predominantly increases, were projected. These results suggest that the clay content of soils could be a good indicator of the sensitivity of catchments to climatic input, and reinforces calls for catchment-specific management plans.
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42.
  • Futter, Martyn (författare)
  • Flows and sediment dynamics in the Ganga River under present and future climate scenarios
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 63, s. 763-782
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Identification of factors controlling sediment dynamics under natural flow regimes can establish a baseline for quantifying effects of present day hydrological alteration and future climate change on sediment delivery and associated flooding. The process-based INCA-Sediment model was used to simulate Ganga River sediment transport under baseline conditions and to quantify possible future changes using three contrasting climate scenarios. Construction of barrages and canals has significantly altered natural flow regimes, with profound consequences for sediment transport. Projected increases in future monsoonal precipitation will lead to higher peak flows, increasing flood frequency and greater water availability. Increased groundwater recharge during monsoon periods and greater rates of evaporation due to increased temperature complicate projections of water availability in non-monsoon periods. Rainfall and land surface interaction in high-relief areas drive uncertainties in Upper Ganga sediment loads. However, higher monsoonal peak flows will increase erosion and sediment delivery in western and lower reaches.
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43.
  • Futter, Martyn, et al. (författare)
  • Forests, Forestry and the Water Framework Directive in Sweden : A Trans-Disciplinary Commentary
  • 2011
  • Ingår i: Forests. - : MDPI AG. - 1999-4907. ; 2:1, s. 261-282
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The Water Framework Directive (WFD) is an ambitious piece of legislation designed to protect and improve water quality throughout Europe. However, forests are only mentioned once in the WFD, and forestry is not mentioned at all, despite its potential implications for streams, rivers and lakes. Here we present a transdisciplinary commentary on the WFD and its implications for forests and forestry in Sweden. This commentary has been prepared by forestry stakeholders, biophysical and social scientists. While we were cognizant of a large body of discipline-specific research, there are very few inter-or trans-disciplinary commentaries which link academic and stakeholder perspectives on the WFD. We had originally felt that there would be little commonality in our concerns. However, we found significant areas of agreement. Our key areas of concern about the implications of the WFD for forestry in Sweden included: (i) concerns about what is meant by good ecological status and how it is assessed; (ii) a perceived lack of clarity in the legal framework; (iii) an inadequate environmental impact assessment process; and (iv) uncertainties about appropriate programs of measures for improving water quality. We were also concerned that ecosystem services provided by forests and the positive effects of forestry on water quality are inadequately recognized in the WFD.
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44.
  • Futter, Martyn (författare)
  • Impacts of climate change and socio-economic scenarios on flow and water quality of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM) river systems: low flow and flood statistics
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Environmental Science: Processes and Impacts. - : Royal Society of Chemistry (RSC). - 2050-7887 .- 2050-7895. ; 17, s. 1057-1069
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The potential impacts of climate change and socio-economic change on flow and water quality in rivers worldwide is a key area of interest. The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) is one of the largest river basins in the world serving a population of over 650 million, and is of vital concern to India and Bangladesh as it provides fresh water for people, agriculture, industry, conservation and for the delta system downstream. This paper seeks to assess future changes in flow and water quality utilising a modelling approach as a means of assessment in a very complex system. The INCA-N model has been applied to the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna river systems to simulate flow and water quality along the rivers under a range of future climate conditions. Three model realisations of the Met Office Hadley Centre global and regional climate models were selected from 17 perturbed model runs to evaluate a range of potential futures in climate. In addition, the models have also been evaluated using socioeconomic scenarios, comprising (1) a business as usual future, (2) a more sustainable future, and (3) a less sustainable future. Model results for the 2050s and the 2090s indicate a significant increase in monsoon flows under the future climates, with enhanced flood potential. Low flows are predicted to fall with extended drought periods, which could have impacts on water and sediment supply, irrigated agriculture and saline intrusion. In contrast, the socio-economic changes had relatively little impact on flows, except under the low flow regimes where increased irrigation could further reduce water availability. However, should large scale water transfers upstream of Bangladesh be constructed, these have the potential to reduce flows and divert water away from the delta region depending on the volume and timing of the transfers. This could have significant implications for the delta in terms of saline intrusion, water supply, agriculture and maintaining crucial ecosystems such as the mangrove forests, with serious implications for people's livelihoods in the area. The socio-economic scenarios have a significant impact on water quality, altering nutrient fluxes being transported into the delta region.
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45.
  • Futter, Martyn, et al. (författare)
  • Impacts of climate change on hydrology and water quality: Future proofing management strategies in the Lake Simcoe watershed, Canada
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Journal of Great Lakes Research. - : Elsevier BV. - 0380-1330. ; 39, s. 19-32
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The impacts of climate change on hydrology and water quality of the Black River, a tributary of Lake Simcoe, Canada, were assessed for the period 2001-2100, by integrating two models, HBV and INCA-P, and using statistically downscaled data from the Global Circulation Model CGCM3 for two IPCC scenarios (A1b and A2). The effectiveness of catchment management strategies was assessed across the 21st century by simulating controls on sewage treatment works and fertiliser applications, and implementing buffer strips and bank erosion controls. Both IPCC scenarios projected greatest precipitation increases during winter (highest in A2), and greatest rises in temperature during summer (highest in A1b) throughout the 21st century. Under both IPCC scenarios, the greater winter precipitation and warmer temperatures resulted both in higher winter flows and in an earlier spring snowmelt event Under scenario A2, the flow regime ceased to represent a river with a significant snowmelt influence by the 2090s. Increasing summer temperatures reduced summer flows (greater under A1b). Despite variability between IPCC scenarios, both projected increases in annual TP loadings into Lake Simcoe throughout the 21st century (greatest during winter). Management scenarios reduced, but did not fully compensate for, the impact of climate change upon Black River TP loads throughout the 21st century. Winter increases were still observed, due to high rainfall and flow. This climatic impact has significant implications for the current management plans which aim to reduce TP loads to the Lake by 30 tonnes. Mitigation strategies should therefore focus on methods for reducing TP loadings during wetter conditions. (c) 2012 International Association for Great Lakes Research. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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46.
  • Futter, Martyn (författare)
  • Impacts of Droughts and Acidic Deposition on Long-Term Surface Water Dissolved Organic Carbon Concentrations in Upland Catchments in Wales
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Frontiers in Environmental Science. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2296-665X. ; 8
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Concerns have been raised about rising trends in surface water dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in UK upland catchments over the past decades. Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain these trends, including changes in climate and declines in sulfate deposition across Europe. Drier summers and wetter winters are projected in the UK, and there is an increasing interest in whether the rising trends of DOC would be continued or stabilized. In this paper, the INCA (INtegrated CAtchment) water quality model was applied to the upland catchment of the River Severn at Plynlimon in Wales and used to simulate the effects of both climate and sulfate deposition on surface water DOC concentrations. We introduced new parameter sets of INCA to explain enzymatic latch effect in peatlands during droughts. The model was able to simulate recent past (1995-2013) rising trends in DOC in Plynlimon. Climatic projections were employed to estimate the future trends on DOC in the uplands and to consider potential impacts on catchment management. The model was run with climatic scenarios generated using the weather@home2 climate modeling platform and with sulfate deposition scenarios from the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) for 1975-2100. The modeling results show that the rising DOC trends are likely to continue in the near future (2020-2049) and the level of DOC concentrations is projected to stabilize in the far future (2070-2099). However, in the far future, the seasonal patterns of DOC concentrations will change, with a post-drought DOC surge in autumn months.
  •  
47.
  •  
48.
  • Futter, Martyn, et al. (författare)
  • Influence of forest management changes and reuse of peat production areas on water quality in a northern river
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: CATENA. - : Elsevier BV. - 0341-8162. ; 226
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • In Northern Finland, the most significant land use challenges are related to bioenergy production from peat extraction and forest biomass. Increasing societal demand for bioenergy may increase production rates. However, environmental impacts of peat extraction are of increasing concern, which has led to a decline in production, thereby freeing up these areas for other uses. Using storylines for different societal futures and process-based models (PERSiST and INCA), we simulated the effect of simultaneous land use change and climate change on water quality (phosphorus, nitrogen and suspended sediments concentration). Conversion of peat extraction areas to arable land, together with climate change, may pose a risk for deterioration of ecological status. On the other hand, continuous forestry may have positive impacts on water quality. Suspended sediment concentrations in the river do not exceed water quality requirements for salmonids, but nitrogen concentrations may exceed threshold values especially during high flows. A storyline emphasizing sustainable development in energy pro-duction led to the best outcome in terms of water protection.
  •  
49.
  • Futter, Martyn (författare)
  • Is the Water Footprint an Appropriate Tool for Forestry and Forest Products: The Fennoscandian Case
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 43, s. 244-256
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The water footprint by the Water Footprint Network (WF) is an ambitious tool for measuring human appropriation and promoting sustainable use of fresh water. Using recent case studies and examples from water-abundant Fennoscandia, we consider whether it is an appropriate tool for evaluating the water use of forestry and forest-based products. We show that aggregating catchment level water consumption over a product life cycle does not consider fresh water as a renewable resource and is inconsistent with the principles of the hydrologic cycle. Currently, the WF assumes that all evapotranspiration (ET) from forests is a human appropriation of water although ET from managed forests in Fennoscandia is indistinguishable from that of unmanaged forests. We suggest that ET should not be included in the water footprint of rain-fed forestry and forest-based products. Tools for sustainable water management should always contextualize water use and water impacts with local water availability and environmental sensitivity.
  •  
50.
  • Futter, Martyn, et al. (författare)
  • Long-term trends in water chemistry of acid-sensitive Swedish lakes show slow recovery from historic acidification
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 43, s. 77-90
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Long-term (1987-2012) water quality monitoring in 36 acid-sensitive Swedish lakes shows slow recovery from historic acidification. Overall, strong acid anion concentrations declined, primarily as a result of declines in sulfate. Chloride is now the dominant anion in many acid-sensitive lakes. Base cation concentrations have declined less rapidly than strong acid anion concentrations, leading to an increase in charge balance acid neutralizing capacity. In many lakes, modeled organic acidity is now approximately equal to inorganic acidity. The observed trends in water chemistry suggest lakes may not return to reference conditions. Despite declines in acid deposition, many of these lakes are still acidified. Base cation concentrations continue to decline and alkalinity shows only small increases. A changing climate may further delay recovery by increasing dissolved organic carbon concentrations and sea-salt episodes. More intensive forest harvesting may also hamper recovery by reducing the supply of soil base cations.
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