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- Gabriel, EE, et al.
(författare)
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Cross-direct effects in settings with two mediators
- 2023
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Ingår i: Biostatistics (Oxford, England). - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1468-4357 .- 1465-4644. ; 24:4, s. 1017-1030
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- When multiple mediators are present, there are additional effects that may be of interest beyond the well-known natural (NDE) and controlled direct effects (CDE). These effects cross the type of control on the mediators, setting one to a constant level and one to its natural level, which differs across subjects. We introduce five such estimands for the cross-CDE and -NDE when two mediators are measured. We consider both the scenario where one mediator is influenced by the other, referred to as sequential mediators, and the scenario where the mediators do not influence each other. Such estimands may be of interest in immunology, as we discuss in relation to measured immunological responses to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. We provide identifying expressions for the estimands in observational settings where there is no residual confounding, and where intervention, outcome, and mediators are of arbitrary type. We further provide tight symbolic bounds for the estimands in randomized settings where there may be residual confounding of the outcome and mediator relationship and all measured variables are binary.
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- Gabriel, EE, et al.
(författare)
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Predictive cluster level surrogacy in the presence of interference
- 2020
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Ingår i: Biostatistics (Oxford, England). - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1468-4357 .- 1465-4644. ; 21:2, s. E33-E46
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Surrogate evaluation is a difficult problem that is made more so by the presence of interference. Our proposed procedure can allow for relatively easy evaluation of surrogates for indirect or spill-over clinical effects at the cluster level. Our definition of surrogacy is based on the causal-association paradigm (Joffe and Greene, 2009. Related causal frameworks for surrogate outcomes. Biometrics65, 530–538), under which surrogates are evaluated by the strength of the association between a causal treatment effect on the clinical outcome and a causal treatment effect on the candidate surrogate. Hudgens and Halloran (2008, Toward causal inference with interference. Journal of the American Statistical Association103, 832–842) introduced estimators that can be used for many of the marginal causal estimands of interest in the presence of interference. We extend these to consider surrogates for not just direct effects, but indirect and total effects at the cluster level. We suggest existing estimators that can be used to evaluate biomarkers under our proposed definition of surrogacy. In our motivating setting of a transmission blocking malaria vaccine, there is expected to be no direct protection to those vaccinated and predictive surrogates are urgently needed. We use a set of simulated data examples based on the proposed Phase IIb/III trial design of transmission blocking malaria vaccine to demonstrate how our definition, proposed criteria and procedure can be used to identify biomarkers as predictive cluster level surrogates in the presence of interference on the clinical outcome.
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- Nordberg, B, et al.
(författare)
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The effect of weekly interactive text-messaging on early infant HIV testing in Kenya: a randomised controlled trial (WelTel PMTCT)
- 2021
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Ingår i: Scientific reports. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2045-2322. ; 11:1, s. 22652-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Mother-to-child transmission of HIV remains a significant concern in Africa despite earlier progress. Early infant diagnosis (EID) of HIV is crucial to reduce mortality among infected infants through early treatment initiation. However, a large proportion of HIV-exposed infants are still not tested in Kenya. Our objective was to investigate whether weekly interactive text-messages improved prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) of HIV care outcomes including EID HIV testing. This multicentre, parallel-group, randomised, open-label trial included six antenatal care clinics across western Kenya. Pregnant women living with HIV, aged 18 years or older, with mobile phone access, were randomised in a 1:1 ratio to weekly text messages that continued until 24 months postpartum, asking “How are you?” (“Mambo?”) to which they were asked to respond within 48 h, or a control group. Healthcare workers contacted participants reporting problems and non-responders by phone. Participants in both groups received routine PMTCT care. The prespecified secondary outcome reported in this paper is EID HIV testing by eight weeks of age (blinded outcome assessment). Final 24-months trial results will be published separately. We estimated risk ratios using Poisson regression with robust standard errors. Between June 2015–July 2016, we screened 735 pregnant women, of whom 600 were enrolled: 299 were allocated to the intervention and 301 to the control group. By eight weeks of age, the uptake of EID HIV testing out of recorded live births was 85.5% in the intervention and 84.7% in the control group (71.2% vs. 71.8% of participants randomised, including miscarriages, stillbirths, etc.). The intention-to-treat risk ratio was 0.99; 95% CI: 0.90–1.10; p = 0.89. The proportion of infants diagnosed with HIV was 0.8% in the intervention and 1.2% in the control group. No adverse events were reported. We found no evidence to support that the WelTel intervention improved EID HIV testing. A higher uptake of EID testing than expected in both groups may be a result of lower barriers to EID testing and improved PMTCT care in western Kenya, including the broader standard use of mobile phone communication between healthcare workers and patients. (ISRCTN No. 98818734. Funded by the European-Developing Countries Clinical Trial Partnership and others).
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