| 1. |
- Hladyz, Sally, et al.
(författare)
-
Stream ecosystem functioning in an agricultural landscape : the importance of terrestrial-aquatic linkages
- 2011
-
Ingår i: Ecosystems in a human-modified landscape. - San Diego : Academic Press. - 9780123747945 ; 44, s. 211-276
-
Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The loss of native riparian vegetation and its replacement with non-native species or grazing land for agriculture is a worldwide phenomenon, but one that is prevalent in Europe, reflecting the heavily-modified nature of the continent's landscape. The consequences of these riparian alterations for freshwater ecosystems remain largely unknown, largely because bioassessment has traditionally focused on the impacts of organic pollution on community structure. We addressed the need for a broader perspective, which encompasses changes at the catchment scale, by comparing ecosystem processes in woodland reference sites with those with altered riparian zones. We assessed a range of riparian modifications, including clearance for pasture and replacement of woodland with a range of low diversity plantations, in 100 streams to obtain a continental-scale perspective of the major types of alterations across Europe. Subsequently, we focused on pasture streams, as an especially prevalent widespread riparian alteration, by characterising their structural (e.g. invertebrate and fish communities) and functional (e.g. litter decomposition, algal production, herbivory) attributes in a country (Ireland) dominated by this type of landscape modification, via field and laboratory experiments. We found that microbes became increasingly important as agents of decomposition relative to macrofauna (invertebrates) in impacted sites in general and in pasture streams in particular. Resource quality of grass litter (e.g., carbon : nutrient ratios, lignin and cellulose content) was a key driver of decomposition rates in pasture streams. These systems also relied more heavily on autochthonous algal production than was the case in woodland streams, which were more detrital based. These findings suggest that these pasture streams might be fundamentally different from their native, ancestral woodland state, with a shift towards greater reliance on autochthonous-based processes. This could have a destabilizing effect on the dynamics of the food web relative to the slower, detrital-based pathways that dominate in woodland streams.
|
|
| 2. |
- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(författare)
-
Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
|
|
| 3. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(författare)
-
Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
|
|
| 4. |
- Vos, Theo, et al.
(författare)
-
Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
|
|
| 5. |
- Costello, David M., et al.
(författare)
-
Global patterns and controls of nutrient immobilization on decomposing cellulose in riverine ecosystems
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Global Biogeochemical Cycles. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0886-6236 .- 1944-9224. ; 36:3
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Microbes play a critical role in plant litter decomposition and influence the fate of carbon in rivers and riparian zones. When decomposing low-nutrient plant litter, microbes acquire nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) from the environment (i.e., nutrient immobilization), and this process is potentially sensitive to nutrient loading and changing climate. Nonetheless, environmental controls on immobilization are poorly understood because rates are also influenced by plant litter chemistry, which is coupled to the same environmental factors. Here we used a standardized, low-nutrient organic matter substrate (cotton strips) to quantify nutrient immobilization at 100 paired stream and riparian sites representing 11 biomes worldwide. Immobilization rates varied by three orders of magnitude, were greater in rivers than riparian zones, and were strongly correlated to decomposition rates. In rivers, P immobilization rates were controlled by surface water phosphate concentrations, but N immobilization rates were not related to inorganic N. The N:P of immobilized nutrients was tightly constrained to a molar ratio of 10:1 despite wide variation in surface water N:P. Immobilization rates were temperature-dependent in riparian zones but not related to temperature in rivers. However, in rivers nutrient supply ultimately controlled whether microbes could achieve the maximum expected decomposition rate at a given temperature. Collectively, we demonstrated that exogenous nutrient supply and immobilization are critical control points for decomposition of organic matter.
|
|
| 6. |
- Tiegs, Scott D., et al.
(författare)
-
Global patterns and drivers of ecosystem functioning in rivers and riparian zones
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Science Advances. - Washington : American Association of Advancement in Science. - 2375-2548. ; 5:1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- River ecosystems receive and process vast quantities of terrestrial organic carbon, the fate of which depends strongly on microbial activity. Variation in and controls of processing rates, however, are poorly characterized at the global scale. In response, we used a peer-sourced research network and a highly standardized carbon processing assay to conduct a global-scale field experiment in greater than 1000 river and riparian sites. We found that Earth's biomes have distinct carbon processing signatures. Slow processing is evident across latitudes, whereas rapid rates are restricted to lower latitudes. Both the mean rate and variability decline with latitude, suggesting temperature constraints toward the poles and greater roles for other environmental drivers (e.g., nutrient loading) toward the equator. These results and data set the stage for unprecedented "next-generation biomonitoring" by establishing baselines to help quantify environmental impacts to the functioning of ecosystems at a global scale.
|
|
| 7. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
-
Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
- 2016
-
Ingår i: The lancet. HIV. - : Elsevier. - 2352-3018. ; 3:8, s. e361-e387
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.METHODS: For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.FINDINGS: Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.INTERPRETATION: Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.
|
|
| 8. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
-
Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2014
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 384:9947, s. 957-979
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success.METHODS: We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29 000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030.FINDINGS: We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone.INTERPRETATION: Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030.
|
|
| 9. |
- Hladyz, Sally, et al.
(författare)
-
Stream ecosystem functioning in an agricultural landscape : the importance of terrestrial-aquatic linkages
- 2011
-
Ingår i: Ecosystems in a human-modified landscape. - San Diego : Academic Press. - 9780123747945 ; 44, s. 211-276
-
Bokkapitel (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
- The loss of native riparian vegetation and its replacement with non-native species or grazing land for agriculture is a worldwide phenomenon, but one that is prevalent in Europe, reflecting the heavily-modified nature of the continent's landscape. The consequences of these riparian alterations for freshwater ecosystems remain largely unknown, largely because bioassessment has traditionally focused on the impacts of organic pollution on community structure. We addressed the need for a broader perspective, which encompasses changes at the catchment scale, by comparing ecosystem processes in woodland reference sites with those with altered riparian zones. We assessed a range of riparian modifications, including clearance for pasture and replacement of woodland with a range of low diversity plantations, in 100 streams to obtain a continental-scale perspective of the major types of alterations across Europe. Subsequently, we focused on pasture streams, as an especially prevalent widespread riparian alteration, by characterising their structural (e.g. invertebrate and fish communities) and functional (e.g. litter decomposition, algal production, herbivory) attributes in a country (Ireland) dominated by this type of landscape modification, via field and laboratory experiments. We found that microbes became increasingly important as agents of decomposition relative to macrofauna (invertebrates) in impacted sites in general and in pasture streams in particular. Resource quality of grass litter (e.g., carbon : nutrient ratios, lignin and cellulose content) was a key driver of decomposition rates in pasture streams. These systems also relied more heavily on autochthonous algal production than was the case in woodland streams, which were more detrital based. These findings suggest that these pasture streams might be fundamentally different from their native, ancestral woodland state, with a shift towards greater reliance on autochthonous-based processes. This could have a destabilizing effect on the dynamics of the food web relative to the slower, detrital-based pathways that dominate in woodland streams.
|
|
| 10. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
-
Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
|
|
| 11. |
- Woodward, Guy, et al.
(författare)
-
Continental-scale effects of nutrient pollution on stream ecosystem functioning
- 2012
-
Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science. - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 336:6087, s. 1438-1440
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Excessive nutrient loading is a major threat to aquatic ecosystems worldwide that leads to profound changes in aquatic biodiversity and biogeochemical processes. Systematic quantitative assessment of functional ecosystem measures for river networks is, however, lacking, especially at continental scales. Here, we narrow this gap by means of a pan-European field experiment on a fundamental ecosystem process—leaf-litter breakdown—in 100 streams across a greater than 1000-fold nutrient gradient. Dramatically slowed breakdown at both extremes of the gradient indicated strong nutrient limitation in unaffected systems, potential for strong stimulation in moderately altered systems, and inhibition in highly polluted streams. This large-scale response pattern emphasizes the need to complement established structural approaches (such as water chemistry, hydrogeomorphology, and biological diversity metrics) with functional measures (such as litter-breakdown rate, whole-system metabolism, and nutrient spiraling) for assessing ecosystem health.
|
|
| 12. |
- Björnerås, C., et al.
(författare)
-
Widespread Increases in Iron Concentration in European and North American Freshwaters
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Global Biogeochemical Cycles. - 0886-6236 .- 1944-9224. ; 31:10, s. 1488-1500
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recent reports of increasing iron (Fe) concentrations in freshwaters are of concern, given the fundamental role of Fe in biogeochemical processes. Still, little is known about the frequency and geographical distribution of Fe trends or about the underlying drivers. We analyzed temporal trends of Fe concentrations across 340 water bodies distributed over 10 countries in northern Europe and North America in order to gain a clearer understanding of where, to what extent, and why Fe concentrations are on the rise. We found that Fe concentrations have significantly increased in 28% of sites, and decreased in 4%, with most positive trends located in northern Europe. Regions with rising Fe concentrations tend to coincide with those with organic carbon (OC) increases. Fe and OC increases may not be directly mechanistically linked, but may nevertheless be responding to common regional-scale drivers such as declining sulfur deposition or hydrological changes. A role of hydrological factors was supported by covarying trends in Fe and dissolved silica, as these elements tend to stem from similar soil depths. A positive relationship between Fe increases and conifer cover suggests that changing land use and expanded forestry could have contributed to enhanced Fe export, although increases were also observed in nonforested areas. We conclude that the phenomenon of increasing Fe concentrations is widespread, especially in northern Europe, with potentially significant implications for wider ecosystem biogeochemistry, and for the current browning of freshwaters.
|
|
| 13. |
- Bohman, Irene, 1960-
(författare)
-
Coarse detritus in oligotrophic lake littoral zones : utilization by intervertebrates and contribution to carbon flow
- 2005
-
Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Syftet med denna avhandling är att öka förståelsen av hur grovt organiskt material, sk grovdetritus, tex löv och makrofytrester, bryts ner i sjöars strandzoner. Motivet bakom intresset för detta är att små näringsfattiga sjöar i skogsrika områden ofta är beroende av tillförsel av energi utifrån och att nedbrytningen av grovdetritus är relativt lite undersökt i sjöar. Utifrån tillförd detritus, i löst och partikulär form kan utgöra extra energikälla för sjöekosystem, men bara om några organismer kan tillgodogöra sig detta organiska material. I sötvatten kan sådana organismer vara bakterier, svampar och ryggradslösa djur. Under nedbrytningsförloppet produceras en mängd mellanprodukter som kan användas av andra konsumenter tex fisk. På så sätt återcirkuleras energi och näring från detritus utan fullständig nedbrytning. Vidare har det föreslagits att hög biodiversitet kan resultera i hög ekosystemfunktion, t ex effektiv nedbryning. Därför kan studier av både samhällen och enskilda arter av nedbrytare öka förståelsen av förändringar i hela ekosystemets funktion. Inom ramen för avhandlingen har jag studerat vilka arter som deltar i nedbrytningen av grovdetritus och vilka möjliga vägar för det fortsatta nyttjandet av detta material som finns. Jag har särskilt betonat det säsongsmässiga mönstret för omsättningen av grovdetritus och för tillgängligheten av mellanprodukter. Resultaten visar att både mikroorganismer och ryggradslösa djur successivt processar tillgängligt grovt organiskt material under hela året. Viktminskningsmönstret över året hos löv och makrofytrester är nära kopplat till förekomst och tillväxt hos olika arter av nedbrytande ryggradslösa djur, sk fragmenterare. Av de vanligaste förekommande tio arterna fragmenterare, var nio nattsländelarver. Därför drar jag slutsatsen att dessa arter av nattsländelarver spelar en avgörande roll för omsättningen av grovdetritus i sjöstränder i sydöstra Sverige. Samtidigt visar resultaten att sötvattengråsuggan spelar mindre roll för nedbrytningen av grovdetritus än förväntat. Denna art föredrar andra födoämnen åtminstone under våren och undviker de grunda bottnarna där grovdetritus finns under vintern. I laboratorieexperiment har jag visat att nedbrytning av löv i närvaro av fragmenterare huvudsakligen ger upphov till två olika produkter: löst organiskt material och finpartikulära rester. Därmed har jag visat att fragmenterare kan omsätta grovdetritus snabbare än mikroorganismer. Slutsatsen blir att mikroorganismernas kvantitativa bidrag till nedbrytning av grov grovdetritus är beroende av mängden fragmenterare. Jag har också visat att olika kombinationer detritussorter och fragmenterararter kan påverka när olika nedbryningsprodukter blir tillgängliga för andra organismer. Sammanfatningsvis har jag visat att grovdetritus är en attraktiv födoresurs för ryggradslösa djur i näringsfattiga sjöars strandzoner, precis som i små bäckar. Dessutom visar jag att de arter av fragmenterare som är speciella för sjöar, tillsammans omsätter tillgängligt grovdetritus i ett finskaligt tidsmönster över året. Detta mönster har utvecklats genom anpassning till trädens lövfällning och nedvissningen av vattenväxter som sker på hösten i vårt klimat. Jag vill också betona att ökade kunskaper om nedbrytning av grovdetritus krävs för att kunna förutsäga effekter av olika störningar i dessa ekosystem. Slutligen rekommenderar jag att nedbrytningshastigheten för grovdetritus testas som mått på ekosystemfunktion också i sjöar.
|
|
| 14. |
- Boyero, Luz, et al.
(författare)
-
Riparian plant litter quality increases with latitude
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Scientific Reports. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 2045-2322. ; 7
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Plant litter represents a major basal resource in streams, where its decomposition is partly regulated by litter traits. Litter-trait variation may determine the latitudinal gradient in decomposition in streams, which is mainly microbial in the tropics and detritivore-mediated at high latitudes. However, this hypothesis remains untested, as we lack information on large-scale trait variation for riparian litter. Variation cannot easily be inferred from existing leaf-trait databases, since nutrient resorption can cause traits of litter and green leaves to diverge. Here we present the first global-scale assessment of riparian litter quality by determining latitudinal variation (spanning 107 degrees) in litter traits (nutrient concentrations; physical and chemical defences) of 151 species from 24 regions and their relationships with environmental factors and phylogeny. We hypothesized that litter quality would increase with latitude (despite variation within regions) and traits would be correlated to produce 'syndromes' resulting from phylogeny and environmental variation. We found lower litter quality and higher nitrogen: phosphorus ratios in the tropics. Traits were linked but showed no phylogenetic signal, suggesting that syndromes were environmentally determined. Poorer litter quality and greater phosphorus limitation towards the equator may restrict detritivore-mediated decomposition, contributing to the predominance of microbial decomposers in tropical streams.
|
|
| 15. |
- Frainer, André, et al.
(författare)
-
No evidence for leaf-trait dissimilarity effects on litter decomposition, fungal decomposers, and nutrient dynamics
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Ecology. - : Ecological Society of America. - 0012-9658 .- 1939-9170. ; 96:2, s. 550-561
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Biodiversity and ecosystem-functioning theory suggest that litter mixtures composed of dissimilar leaf species can enhance decomposition due to species trait complementarity. Here we created a continuous gradient of litter chemistry trait variability within species mixtures to assess effects of litter dissimilarity on three related processes in a natural stream: litter decomposition, fungal biomass accrual in the litter, and nitrogen and phosphorus immobilization. Litter from a pool of eight leaf species was analyzed for chemistry traits affecting decomposition (lignin, nitrogen, and phosphorus) and assembled in all of the 28 possible two-species combinations. Litter dissimilarity was characterized in terms of a range of trait-diversity measures, using Euclidean and Gower distances and dendrogram-based indices. We found large differences in decomposition rates among leaf species, but no significant relationships between decomposition rate of individual leaf species and litter trait dissimilarity, irrespective of whether decomposition was mediated by microbes alone or by both microbes and litter-consuming invertebrates. Likewise, no effects of trait dissimilarity emerged on either fungal biomass accrual or changes during decomposition of nitrogen or phosphorus concentrations in individual leaf species. In line with recent meta-analyses, these results provide support for the contention that litter diversity effects on decomposition, at least in streams, are less pronounced than effects on terrestrial primary productivity.
|
|
| 16. |
- Frainer, André, et al.
(författare)
-
Stoichiometric imbalances between detritus and detritivores are related to shifts in ecosystem functioning
- 2016
-
Ingår i: Oikos. - : Wiley. - 0030-1299 .- 1600-0706. ; 125:6, s. 861-871
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How are resource consumption and growth rates of litter-consuming detritivores affected by imbalances between consumer and litter C:N:P ratios? To address this question, we offered leaf litter as food to three aquatic detritivore species, which represent a gradient of increasing body N: P ratios: a crustacean, a caddisfly and a stonefly. The detritivores were placed in microcosms and submerged in a natural stream. Four contrasting leaf species were offered, both singly and in two-species mixtures, to obtain different levels of stoichiometric imbalance between the resources and their consumers. The results suggest that detritivore growth was constrained by N rather than C or P, even though 1) the N: P ratios of the consumers' body tissue was relatively low and 2) microbial leaf conditioning during the experiment reduced the N:P imbalance between detritivores and leaf litter. This surprisingly consistent N limitation may be a consequence of cumulative N-demand arising from the production of N-rich chitin in the exoskeletons of all three consumer species, which is lost during regular moults, in addition to N-demand for silk production by the caddisfly. These N requirements are not commonly quantified in stoichiometric analyses of arthropod consumers. There was no evidence for compensatory feeding, but when offered mixed-species litter varying in C:N:P ratios, detritivores consumed more of the litter species showing the highest N:P and lowest C:N ratio, accelerating the mass loss of the preferred leaf species in the litter mixture. These results show that imbalances in consumer-resource stoichiometry can have contrasting effects on coupled processes, highlighting a challenge in developing a mechanistic understanding of the role of stoichiometry in regulating ecosystem processes such as leaf litter decomposition.
|
|
| 17. |
- Handa, I. Tanya, et al.
(författare)
-
Consequences of biodiversity loss for litter decomposition across biomes
- 2014
-
Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 509:7499, s. 218-221
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The decomposition of dead organic matter is a major determinant of carbon and nutrient cycling in ecosystems, and of carbon fluxes between the biosphere and the atmosphere(1-3). Decomposition is driven by a vast diversity of organisms that are structured in complex food webs(2,4). Identifying the mechanisms underlying the effects of biodiversity on decomposition is critical(4-6) given the rapid loss of species worldwide and the effects of this loss on human well-being(7-9). Yet despite comprehensive syntheses of studies on how biodiversity affects litter decomposition(4-6,10), key questions remain, including when, where and how biodiversity has a role and whether general patterns and mechanisms occur across ecosystems and different functional types of organism(4,9-12). Here, in field experiments across five terrestrial and aquatic locations, ranging from the subarctic to the tropics, we show that reducing the functional diversity of decomposer organisms and plant litter types slowed the cycling of litter carbon and nitrogen. Moreover, we found evidence of nitrogen transfer from the litter of nitrogen-fixing plants to that of rapidly decomposing plants, but not between other plant functional types, highlighting that specific interactions in litter mixtures control carbon and nitrogen cycling during decomposition. The emergence of this general mechanism and the coherence of patterns across contrasting terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems suggest that biodiversity loss has consistent consequences for litter decomposition and the cycling of major elements on broad spatial scales.
|
|
| 18. |
- Jabiol, Jeremy, et al.
(författare)
-
Diversity patterns of leaf-associated aquatic hyphomycetes along a broad latitudinal gradient
- 2013
-
Ingår i: Fungal ecology. - : Elsevier. - 1754-5048 .- 1878-0083. ; 6:5, s. 439-448
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Information about the global distribution of aquatic hyphomycetes is scarce, despite the primary importance of these fungi in stream ecosystem functioning. In particular, the relationship between their diversity and latitude remains unclear, due to a lack of coordinated surveys across broad latitudinal ranges. This study is a first report on latitudinal patterns of aquatic hyphomycete diversity associated with native leaf-litter species in five streams located along a gradient extending from the subarctic to the tropics. Exposure of leaf litter in mesh bags of three different mesh sizes facilitated assessing the effects of including or excluding different size-classes of litter-consuming invertebrates. Aquatic hyphomycete evenness was notably constant across all sites, whereas species richness and diversity, expressed as the Hill number, reached a maximum at mid-latitudes (Mediterranean and temperate streams). These latitudinal patterns were consistent across litter species, despite a notable influence of litter identity on fungal communities at the local scale. As a result, the bell-shaped distribution of species richness and Hill diversity deviated markedly from the latitudinal patterns of most other groups of organisms. Differences in the body-size distribution of invertebrate communities colonizing the leaves had no effect on aquatic hyphomycete species richness, Hill diversity or evenness, but invertebrates could still influence fungal communities by depleting litter, an effect that was not captured by the design of our experiment. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd and The British Mycological Society. All rights reserved.
|
|
| 19. |
- Maasri, Alain, et al.
(författare)
-
A global agenda for advancing freshwater biodiversity research
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Ecology Letters. - : Wiley. - 1461-023X .- 1461-0248. ; 25:2, s. 255-263
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Global freshwater biodiversity is declining dramatically, and meeting the challenges of this crisis requires bold goals and the mobilisation of substantial resources. While the reasons are varied, investments in both research and conservation of freshwater biodiversity lag far behind those in the terrestrial and marine realms. Inspired by a global consultation, we identify 15 pressing priority needs, grouped into five research areas, in an effort to support informed stewardship of freshwater biodiversity. The proposed agenda aims to advance freshwater biodiversity research globally as a critical step in improving coordinated actions towards its sustainable management and conservation.
|
|
| 20. |
- Mckie, Brendan, et al.
(författare)
-
Placing biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in context : environmental perturbations and the effects of species richness in a stream field experiment
- 2009
-
Ingår i: Oecologia. - : Springer-Verlag New York. - 0029-8549 .- 1432-1939. ; 160:4, s. 757-770
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Greater biodiversity is often associated with increased ecosystem process rates, and is expected to enhance the stability of ecosystem functioning under abiotic stress. However, these relationships might themselves be altered by environmental factors, complicating prediction of the effects of species loss in ecosystems subjected to abiotic stress. In boreal streams, we investigated effects of biodiversity and two abiotic perturbations on three related indices of ecosystem functioning: leaf decomposition, detritivore leaf processing efficiency (LPE) and detritivore growth. Replicate field enclosures containing leaves and detritivore assemblages were exposed to liming and nutrient enrichment, raising pH and nutrient levels. Both treatments constitute perturbations for our naturally acidic and nutrient-poor streams. We also varied detritivore species richness and density. The effects of the abiotic and diversity manipulations were similar in magnitude, but whereas leaf decomposition increased by 18% and 8% following liming and nutrient enrichment, respectively, increased detritivore richness reduced leaf decomposition (6%), detritivore LPE (19%) and detritivore growth (12%). The detritivore richness effect on growth was associated with negative trait-independent complementarity, indicating interspecific interference competition. These interactions were apparently alleviated in both enriched and limed enclosures, as trait-independent complementarity became less negative. LPE increased with detritivore density in the monocultures, indicating benefits of intra-specific aggregation that outweighed the costs of intra-specific competition, and dilution of these benefits probably contributed to lowered leaf decomposition in the species mixtures. Finally, the effects of liming were reduced in most species mixtures relative to the monocultures. These results demonstrate how environmental changes might regulate the consequences of species loss for functioning in anthropogenically perturbed ecosystems, and highlight potential influences of biodiversity on functional stability. Additionally, the negative effects of richness and positive effects of density in our field study were opposite to previous laboratory observations, further illustrating the importance of environmental context for biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationships.
|
|
| 21. |
- Shumilova, Oleksandra, et al.
(författare)
-
Simulating rewetting events in intermittent rivers and ephemeral streams : A global analysis of leached nutrients and organic matter
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : WILEY. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 25:5, s. 1591-1611
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change and human pressures are changing the global distribution and the extent of intermittent rivers and ephemeral streams (IRES), which comprise half of the global river network area. IRES are characterized by periods of flow cessation, during which channel substrates accumulate and undergo physico-chemical changes (preconditioning), and periods of flow resumption, when these substrates are rewetted and release pulses of dissolved nutrients and organic matter (OM). However, there are no estimates of the amounts and quality of leached substances, nor is there information on the underlying environmental constraints operating at the global scale. We experimentally simulated, under standard laboratory conditions, rewetting of leaves, riverbed sediments, and epilithic biofilms collected during the dry phase across 205 IRES from five major climate zones. We determined the amounts and qualitative characteristics of the leached nutrients and OM, and estimated their areal fluxes from riverbeds. In addition, we evaluated the variance in leachate characteristics in relation to selected environmental variables and substrate characteristics. We found that sediments, due to their large quantities within riverbeds, contribute most to the overall flux of dissolved substances during rewetting events (56%-98%), and that flux rates distinctly differ among climate zones. Dissolved organic carbon, phenolics, and nitrate contributed most to the areal fluxes. The largest amounts of leached substances were found in the continental climate zone, coinciding with the lowest potential bioavailability of the leached OM. The opposite pattern was found in the arid zone. Environmental variables expected to be modified under climate change (i.e. potential evapotranspiration, aridity, dry period duration, land use) were correlated with the amount of leached substances, with the strongest relationship found for sediments. These results show that the role of IRES should be accounted for in global biogeochemical cycles, especially because prevalence of IRES will increase due to increasing severity of drying events.
|
|
