| 1. |
- Hellin, Jon, et al.
(författare)
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Transformative adaptation and implications for transdisciplinary climate change research
- 2022
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Ingår i: Environmental Research: Climate. - : IOP Publishing. - 2752-5295. ; 1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The severity of the climate challenge requires a change in the climate response, from an incrementalto a more far-reaching and radical transformative one. There is also a need to avoid maladaptationwhereby responses to climate risk inadvertently reinforce vulnerability, exposure and risk for somesections of society. Innovative technological interventions are critical but enabling social,institutional and governance factors are the actual drivers of the transformative process. Bringingabout this transformation requires inter- and transdisciplinary approaches, and the embracing ofsocial equity. In this Perspective, we unpack what this means for agricultural research and, based onour collective experience, we map out a research agenda that weaves different research componentsinto a holistic and transformative one. We do not offer best practice, but rather reflections on howagricultural research can more readily contribute to transformative adaptation, along with thepersonal and practical challenges of designing and implementing such an agenda.
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| 2. |
- Ummenhofer, Caroline C., et al.
(författare)
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How Climate Change Affects Extremes in Maize and Wheat Yield in Two Cropping Regions
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of Climate. - 1520-0442. ; 28:12, s. 4653-4687
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Downscaled climate model projections from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were used to force a dynamic vegetation agricultural model (Agro-IBIS) and simulate yield responses to historical climate and two future emissions scenarios for maize in the U.S. Midwest and wheat in southeastern Australia. In addition to mean changes in yield, the frequency of high- and low-yield years was related to changing local hydroclimatic conditions. Particular emphasis was on the seasonal cycle of climatic variables during extreme-yield years and links to crop growth. While historically high (low) yields in Iowa tend to occur during years with anomalous wet (dry) growing season, this is exacerbated in the future. By the end of the twenty-first century, the multimodel mean (MMM) of growing season temperatures in Iowa is projected to increase by more than 5 degrees C, and maize yield is projected to decrease by 18%. For southeastern Australia, the frequency of low-yield years rises dramatically in the twenty-first century because of significant projected drying during the growing season. By the late twenty-first century, MMM growing season precipitation in southeastern Australia is projected to decrease by 15%, temperatures are projected to increase by 2.8 degrees-4.5 degrees C, and wheat yields are projected to decline by 70%. Results highlight the sensitivity of yield projections to the nature of hydroclimatic changes. Where future changes are uncertain, the sign of the yield change simulated by Agro-IBIS is uncertain as well. In contrast, broad agreement in projected drying over southern Australia across models is reflected in consistent yield decreases for the twenty-first century. Climatic changes of the order projected can be expected to pose serious challenges for continued staple grain production in some current centers of production, especially in marginal areas.
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| 3. |
- Wood, Sylvia L. R., et al.
(författare)
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Distilling the role of ecosystem services in the Sustainable Development Goals
- 2018
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Ingår i: Ecosystem Services. - : Elsevier BV. - 2212-0416. ; 29, s. 70-82
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Achieving well-being for all, while protecting the environment, is one of the most pressing global challenges of our time, and a central idea in the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We believe that integrating ecosystem services, the benefits nature provides to people, into strategies for meeting the SDGs can help achieve this. Many development goals are likely underpinned by the delivery of one or more ecosystem services. Understanding how these services could support multiple development targets will be essential for planning synergistic and cost-effective interventions. Here we present the results of an expert survey on the contributions of 16 ecosystem services to achieving SDG targets linked to environment and human well-being, and review the capacity of modelling tools to evaluate SDG-relevant ecosystem services interactions. Survey respondents judged that individual ecosystem services could make important contributions to achieving 41 targets across 12 SDGs. The provision of food and water, habitat & biodiversity maintenance, and carbon storage & sequestration were perceived to each make contributions to > 14 SDG targets, suggesting cross-target interactions are likely, and may present opportunities for synergistic outcomes across multiple SDGs. Existing modelling tools are well-aligned to support SDG-relevant ecosystem service planning. Together, this work identifies entry points and tools to further analyze the role of ecosystem services to support the SDGs.
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