| 1. |
- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(författare)
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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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| 2. |
- Kattge, Jens, et al.
(författare)
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TRY plant trait database - enhanced coverage and open access
- 2020
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 26:1, s. 119-188
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Plant traits-the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants-determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait-based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits-almost complete coverage for 'plant growth form'. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait-environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives.
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| 3. |
- Niemi, Auli, et al.
(författare)
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Heletz experimental site overview, characterization and data analysis for CO2 injection and geological storage
- 2016
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Ingår i: International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control. - : Elsevier BV. - 1750-5836 .- 1878-0148. ; 48, s. 3-23
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper provides an overview of the site characterization work at the Heletz site, in preparation to scientifically motivated CO2 injection experiments. The outcomes are geological and hydrogeological models with associated medium properties and baseline conditions. The work has consisted on first re-analyzing the existing data base from similar to 40 wells from the previous oil exploration studies, based on which a 3-dimensional structural model was constructed along with first estimates of the properties. The CO2 injection site is located on the saline edges of the Heletz depleted oil field. Two new deep (> 1600 m) wells were drilled within the injection site and from these wells a detailed characterization program was carried out, including coring, core analyses, fluid sampling, geophysical logging, seismic survey, in situ hydraulic testing and measurement of the baseline pressure and temperature. The results are presented and discussed in terms of characteristics of the reservoir and cap-rock, the mineralogy, water composition and other baseline conditions, porosity, permeability, capillary pressure and relative permeability. Special emphasis is given to petrophysical properties of the reservoir and the seal, such as comparing the estimates determined by different methods, looking at their geostatistical distributions as well as changes in them when exposed to CO2.
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