| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Dixon-Suen, Suzanne C, et al.
(författare)
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Physical activity, sedentary time and breast cancer risk : a Mendelian randomisation study
- 2022
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Ingår i: British Journal of Sports Medicine. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 0306-3674 .- 1473-0480. ; 56:20, s. 1157-1170
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVES: Physical inactivity and sedentary behaviour are associated with higher breast cancer risk in observational studies, but ascribing causality is difficult. Mendelian randomisation (MR) assesses causality by simulating randomised trial groups using genotype. We assessed whether lifelong physical activity or sedentary time, assessed using genotype, may be causally associated with breast cancer risk overall, pre/post-menopause, and by case-groups defined by tumour characteristics.METHODS: We performed two-sample inverse-variance-weighted MR using individual-level Breast Cancer Association Consortium case-control data from 130 957 European-ancestry women (69 838 invasive cases), and published UK Biobank data (n=91 105-377 234). Genetic instruments were single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated in UK Biobank with wrist-worn accelerometer-measured overall physical activity (nsnps=5) or sedentary time (nsnps=6), or accelerometer-measured (nsnps=1) or self-reported (nsnps=5) vigorous physical activity.RESULTS: Greater genetically-predicted overall activity was associated with lower breast cancer overall risk (OR=0.59; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.42 to 0.83 per-standard deviation (SD;~8 milligravities acceleration)) and for most case-groups. Genetically-predicted vigorous activity was associated with lower risk of pre/perimenopausal breast cancer (OR=0.62; 95% CI 0.45 to 0.87,≥3 vs. 0 self-reported days/week), with consistent estimates for most case-groups. Greater genetically-predicted sedentary time was associated with higher hormone-receptor-negative tumour risk (OR=1.77; 95% CI 1.07 to 2.92 per-SD (~7% time spent sedentary)), with elevated estimates for most case-groups. Results were robust to sensitivity analyses examining pleiotropy (including weighted-median-MR, MR-Egger).CONCLUSION: Our study provides strong evidence that greater overall physical activity, greater vigorous activity, and lower sedentary time are likely to reduce breast cancer risk. More widespread adoption of active lifestyles may reduce the burden from the most common cancer in women.
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| 3. |
- Gil, Natali, et al.
(författare)
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Heparanase Is Essential for the Development of Diabetic Nephropathy in Mice
- 2012
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Ingår i: Diabetes. - : American Diabetes Association. - 0012-1797 .- 1939-327X. ; 61:1, s. 208-216
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Diabetic nephropathy (DN) is the major life-threatening complication of diabetes. Abnormal permselectivity of glomerular basement membrane (GBM) plays an important role in DN pathogenesis. Heparanase is the predominant enzyme that degrades heparan sulfate (HS), the main polysaccharide of the GBM. Loss of GBM HS in diabetic kidney was associated with increased glomerular expression of heparanase; however, the causal involvement of heparanase in the pathogenesis of DN has not been demonstrated. We report for the first time the essential involvement of heparanase in DN. With the use of Hpse-KO mice, we found that deletion of the heparanase gene protects diabetic mice from DN. Furthermore, by investigating the molecular mechanism underlying induction of the enzyme in DN, we found that transcription factor early growth response 1 (Egr1) is responsible for activation of heparanase promoter under diabetic conditions. The specific heparanase inhibitor SST0001 markedly decreased the extent of albuminuria and renal damage in mouse models of DN. Our results collectively underscore the crucial role of heparanase in the pathogenesis of DN and its potential as a highly relevant target for interventions in patients with DN.
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| 4. |
- Goldberg, Rachel, et al.
(författare)
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Role of Heparanase-Driven Inflammatory Cascade in Pathogenesis of Diabetic Nephropathy
- 2014
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Ingår i: Diabetes. - : American Diabetes Association. - 0012-1797 .- 1939-327X. ; 63:12, s. 4302-4313
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Renal involvement is a major medical concern in the diabetic population, and with the global epidemic of diabetes, diabetic nephropathy (DN) became the leading cause of end-stage renal failure in the Western world. Heparanase (the only known mammalian endoglycosidase that cleaves heparan sulfate) is essentially involved in DN pathogenesis. Nevertheless, the exact mode of heparanase action in sustaining the pathology of DN remains unclear. Here we describe a previously unrecognized combinatorial circuit of heparanase-driven molecular events promoting chronic inflammation and renal injury in individuals with DN. These events are fueled by heterotypic interactions among glomerular, tubular, and immune cell compartments, as well as diabetic milieu (DM) components. We found that under diabetic conditions latent heparanase, overexpressed by glomerular cells and posttranslationally activated by cathepsin L of tubular origin, sustains continuous activation of kidney-damaging macrophages by DM components, thus creating chronic inflammatory conditions and fostering macrophage-mediated renal injury. Elucidation of the mechanism underlying the enzyme action in diabetic kidney damage is critically important for the proper design and future implementation of heparanase-targeting therapeutic interventions (which are currently under intensive development and clinical testing) in individuals with DN and perhaps other complications of diabetes.
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| 5. |
- Hermano, Esther, et al.
(författare)
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Heparanase Accelerates Obesity-Associated Breast Cancer Progression
- 2019
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Ingår i: Cancer Research. - 0008-5472 .- 1538-7445. ; 79:20, s. 5342-5354
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Obese women have higher risk of bearing breast tumors that are highly aggressive and resistant to therapies. Tumor-promoting effects of obesity occur locally via adipose inflammation and related alterations to the extracellular matrix (ECM) as well as systemically via circulating metabolic mediators (e.g., free fatty acids, FFA) associated with excess adiposity and implicated in toll-like receptor-mediated activation of macrophages-key cellular players in obesity-related cancer progression. Although the contribution of macrophages to proneoplastic effects of obesity is well documented, the role of ECM components and their enzymatic degradation is less appreciated. We show that heparanase, the sole mammalian endoglucuronidase that cleaves heparan sulfate in ECM, is preferentially expressed in clinical/experimental obesity-associated breast tumors. Heparanase deficiency abolished obesity-accelerated tumor progression in vivo. Heparanase orchestrated a complex molecular program that occurred concurrently in adipose and tumor tissue and sustained the cancer-promoting action of obesity. Heparanase was required for adipose tissue macrophages to produce inflammatory mediators responsible for local induction of aromatase, a rate-limiting enzyme in estrogen biosynthesis. Estrogen upregulated heparanase in hormone-responsive breast tumors. In subsequent stages, elevated levels of heparanase induced acquisition of procancerous phenotype by tumor-associated macrophages, resulting in activation of tumor-promoting signaling and acceleration of breast tumor growth under obese conditions. As techniques to screen for heparanase expression in tumors become available, these findings provide rational and a mechanistic basis for designing antiheparanase approaches to uncouple obesity and breast cancer in a rapidly growing population of obese patients. Significance: This study reveals the role of heparanase in promoting obesity-associated breast cancer and provides a mechanistically informed approach to uncouple obesity and breast cancer in a rapidly growing population of obese patients.
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| 6. |
- Nowicka, Paulina, 1974-, et al.
(författare)
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Utility of Hemoglobin A1c for Diagnosing Prediabetes and Diabetes in Obese Children and Adolescents
- 2011
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Ingår i: Diabetes Care. - : American Diabetes Association. - 0149-5992 .- 1935-5548. ; 34:6, s. 1306-1311
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVE—Hemoglobin A1c (A1C) has emerged as a recommended diagnostic tool for identifying diabetes and subjects at risk for the disease. This recommendation is based on data in adults showing the relationship between A1C with future development of diabetes and microvascular complications. However, studies in the pediatric population are lacking.RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—We studied a multiethnic cohort of 1,156 obese children and adolescents without a diagnosis of diabetes (male, 40%/female, 60%). All subjects underwent an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) and A1C measurement. These tests were repeated after a follow-up time of ;2 years in 218 subjects.RESULTS—At baseline, subjects were stratified according to A1C categories: 77% with normal glucose tolerance (A1C,5.7%), 21% at risk for diabetes (A1C 5.7–6.4%), and 1% with diabetes (A1C .6.5%). In the at risk for diabetes category, 47% were classified with prediabetes or diabetes, and in the diabetes category, 62% were classified with type 2 diabetes by the OGTT. The area under the curve receiver operating characteristic for A1C was 0.81 (95%CI 0.70–0.92). The threshold for identifying type 2 diabetes was 5.8%, with 78% specificity and 68% sensitivity. In the subgroup with repeated measures, a multivariate analysis showed that the strongest predictors of 2-h glucose at follow-up were baseline A1C and 2-h glucose, independently of age, ethnicity, sex, fasting glucose, and follow-up time.CONCLUSIONS—The American Diabetes Association suggested that an A1C of 6.5% underestimates the prevalence of prediabetes and diabetes in obese children and adolescents. Given the low sensitivity and specificity, the use of A1C by itself represents a poor diagnostic tool for prediabetes and type 2 diabetes in obese children and adolescents.
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| 7. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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| 8. |
- Zanti, Maria, et al.
(författare)
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A Likelihood Ratio Approach for Utilizing Case-Control Data in the Clinical Classification of Rare Sequence Variants : Application to BRCA1 and BRCA2
- 2023
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Ingår i: Human Mutation. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1059-7794 .- 1098-1004. ; 2023
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A large number of variants identified through clinical genetic testing in disease susceptibility genes are of uncertain significance (VUS). Following the recommendations of the American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics (ACMG) and Association for Molecular Pathology (AMP), the frequency in case-control datasets (PS4 criterion) can inform their interpretation. We present a novel case-control likelihood ratio-based method that incorporates gene-specific age-related penetrance. We demonstrate the utility of this method in the analysis of simulated and real datasets. In the analysis of simulated data, the likelihood ratio method was more powerful compared to other methods. Likelihood ratios were calculated for a case-control dataset of BRCA1 and BRCA2 variants from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC) and compared with logistic regression results. A larger number of variants reached evidence in favor of pathogenicity, and a substantial number of variants had evidence against pathogenicity-findings that would not have been reached using other case-control analysis methods. Our novel method provides greater power to classify rare variants compared with classical case-control methods. As an initiative from the ENIGMA Analytical Working Group, we provide user-friendly scripts and preformatted Excel calculators for implementation of the method for rare variants in BRCA1, BRCA2, and other high-risk genes with known penetrance.
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