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| 2. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 3. |
- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(författare)
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- 2020
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 4. |
- Sarwar, Nadeem, et al.
(författare)
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Interleukin-6 receptor pathways in coronary heart disease : a collaborative meta-analysis of 82 studies
- 2012
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - New York, NY, USA : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 379:9822, s. 1205-1213
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Persistent inflammation has been proposed to contribute to various stages in the pathogenesis of cardiovascular disease. Interleukin-6 receptor (IL6R) signalling propagates downstream inflammation cascades. To assess whether this pathway is causally relevant to coronary heart disease, we studied a functional genetic variant known to affect IL6R signalling. Methods: In a collaborative meta-analysis, we studied Asp358Ala (rs2228145) in IL6R in relation to a panel of conventional risk factors and inflammation biomarkers in 125 222 participants. We also compared the frequency of Asp358Ala in 51 441 patients with coronary heart disease and in 136 226 controls. To gain insight into possible mechanisms, we assessed Asp358Ala in relation to localised gene expression and to postlipopolysaccharide stimulation of interleukin 6. Findings: The minor allele frequency of Asp358Ala was 39%. Asp358Ala was not associated with lipid concentrations, blood pressure, adiposity, dysglycaemia, or smoking (p value for association per minor allele >= 0.04 for each). By contrast, for every copy of 358Ala inherited, mean concentration of IL6R increased by 34.3% (95% CI 30.4-38.2) and of interleukin 6 by 14.6% (10.7-18.4), and mean concentration of C-reactive protein was reduced by 7.5% (5.9-9.1) and of fibrinogen by 1.0% (0.7-1.3). For every copy of 358Ala inherited, risk of coronary heart disease was reduced by 3.4% (1.8-5.0). Asp358Ala was not related to IL6R mRNA levels or interleukin-6 production in monocytes. Interpretation: Large-scale human genetic and biomarker data are consistent with a causal association between IL6R-related pathways and coronary heart disease.
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| 5. |
- Rice, Gillian I, et al.
(författare)
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Genetic, Phenotypic, and Interferon Biomarker Status in ADAR1-Related Neurological Disease.
- 2017
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Ingår i: Neuropediatrics. - : Georg Thieme Verlag KG. - 1439-1899 .- 0174-304X. ; 48:3, s. 166-184
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We investigated the genetic, phenotypic, and interferon status of 46 patients from 37 families with neurological disease due to mutations in ADAR1. The clinicoradiological phenotype encompassed a spectrum of Aicardi-Goutières syndrome, isolated bilateral striatal necrosis, spastic paraparesis with normal neuroimaging, a progressive spastic dystonic motor disorder, and adult-onset psychological difficulties with intracranial calcification. Homozygous missense mutations were recorded in five families. We observed a p.Pro193Ala variant in the heterozygous state in 22 of 23 families with compound heterozygous mutations. We also ascertained 11 cases from nine families with a p.Gly1007Arg dominant-negative mutation, which occurred de novo in four patients, and was inherited in three families in association with marked phenotypic variability. In 50 of 52 samples from 34 patients, we identified a marked upregulation of type I interferon-stimulated gene transcripts in peripheral blood, with a median interferon score of 16.99 (interquartile range [IQR]: 10.64-25.71) compared with controls (median: 0.93, IQR: 0.57-1.30). Thus, mutations in ADAR1 are associated with a variety of clinically distinct neurological phenotypes presenting from early infancy to adulthood, inherited either as an autosomal recessive or dominant trait. Testing for an interferon signature in blood represents a useful biomarker in this context.
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| 6. |
- White, Paul J, et al.
(författare)
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Identifying the core concepts of pharmacology education: A global initiative.
- 2022
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Ingår i: British journal of pharmacology. - : Wiley. - 0007-1188 .- 1476-5381. ; 180:9, s. 1197-1209
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In recent decades, a focus on the most critical and fundamental concepts has proven highly advantageous to students and educators in many science disciplines. Pharmacology, unlike microbiology, biochemistry, or physiology, lacks a consensus list of such core concepts.We sought to develop a research-based, globally relevant list of core concepts that all students completing a foundational pharmacology course should master. This two-part project consisted of exploratory and refinement phases. The exploratory phase involved empirical data mining of the introductory sections of five key textbooks, in parallel with an online survey of over 200 pharmacology educators from 17 countries across six continents. The refinement phase involved three Delphi rounds involving 24 experts from 15 countries across six continents.The exploratory phase resulted in a consolidated list of 74 candidate core concepts. In the refinement phase, the expert group produced a consensus list of 25 core concepts of pharmacology.This list will allow pharmacology educators everywhere to focus their efforts on the conceptual knowledge perceived to matter most by experts within the discipline. Next steps for this project include defining and unpacking each core concept and developing resources to help pharmacology educators globally teach and assess these concepts within their educational contexts.
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| 7. |
- Wolpin, Brian M., et al.
(författare)
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Genome-wide association study identifies multiple susceptibility loci for pancreatic cancer
- 2014
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Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 46:9, s. 994-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We performed a multistage genome-wide association study including 7,683 individuals with pancreatic cancer and 14,397 controls of European descent. Four new loci reached genome-wide significance: rs6971499 at 7q32.3 (LINC-PINT, per-allele odds ratio (OR) = 0.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.74-0.84, P = 3.0 x 10(-12)), rs7190458 at 16q23.1 (BCAR1/CTRB1/CTRB2, OR = 1.46, 95% CI 1.30-1.65, P = 1.1 x 10(-10)), rs9581943 at 13q12.2 (PDX1, OR = 1.15, 95% CI 1.10-1.20, P = 2.4 x 10(-9)) and rs16986825 at 22q12.1 (ZNRF3, OR = 1.18, 95% CI 1.12-1.25, P = 1.2 x 10(-8)). We identified an independent signal in exon 2 of TERT at the established region 5p15.33 (rs2736098, OR = 0.80, 95% CI 0.76-0.85, P = 9.8 x 10(-14)). We also identified a locus at 8q24.21 (rs1561927, P = 1.3 x 10(-7)) that approached genome-wide significance located 455 kb telomeric of PVT1. Our study identified multiple new susceptibility alleles for pancreatic cancer that are worthy of follow-up studies.
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