| 1. |
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| 2. |
- Moberg, Christina, et al.
(författare)
-
De unga gör helt rätt när de stämmer staten : 1 620 forskare och lärare i forskarvärlden: Vi ställer oss bakom Auroras klimatkrav
- 2022
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Ingår i: Aftonbladet. - : Aftonbladet. ; :2022-12-07
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Tidskriftsartikel (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
- Vi, 1 620 forskare samt lärare vid universitet och högskolor, är eniga med de unga bakom Auroramålet: De drabbas och riskerar att drabbas allvarligt av klimatkrisen under sin livstid. De klimatåtgärder vi vidtar i närtid avgör deras framtid. Sverige måste ta ansvar och göra sin rättvisa andel av det globala klimatarbetet. I strid med Parisavtalet ökar utsläppen av växthusgaser i en takt som gör att 1,5-gradersmålet kan överskridas om några år. De globala effekterna blir allt mer synliga med ständiga temperaturrekord, smältande isar, havshöjning och extremväder som torka, förödande bränder och skyfall med enorma översvämningar, som i Pakistan nyligen. Försörjningen av befolkningen utsätts för allvarliga hot i många länder.Minskningen av den biologiska mångfalden är extrem. Klimatkrisen är enligt WHO det största hotet mot människors hälsa i hela världen och barn utgör en särskilt sårbar grupp. Med Sveriges nordliga läge sker uppvärmningen här dubbelt så fort som det globala genomsnittet. Det förskjuter utbredningsområden för växtlighet och sjukdomsbärande insekter och ökar förekomsten av extremväder såsom värmeböljor, skogsbränder och översvämningar samt av många olika sorters infektioner och allergier. När extremväder ökar, ökar även stressen och risken för mental ohälsa. Värmeböljor ökar risken för sjukdom och död hos sårbara grupper som äldre, små barn och personer med kroniska sjukdomar. De negativa effekterna på hälsan kommer att öka i takt med klimatkrisen och barn riskerar att drabbas av ackumulerade negativa hälsoeffekter under hela sina liv. Redan i dag är mer än hälften av unga mellan 12 och 18 år i Sverige ganska eller mycket oroliga för klimat och miljö. Detta är förståeligt när våra beslutsfattare inte gör vad som krävs.Den juridiska och moraliska grunden för arbetet mot klimatförändringarna är att varje land måste göra sin rättvisa andel av det globala klimatarbetet. Centralt i det internationella klimatramverket är att rika länder med höga historiska utsläpp, däribland Sverige, måste gå före resten av världen. Dessa länder måste också bidra till att finansiera klimatomställningen i länderna i det Globala Syd, som är minst ansvariga för klimatkrisen men drabbas hårdast. Denna rättviseprincip är tydlig i Parisavtalet och var en het diskussionsfråga under COP27 i Sharm el-Sheikh, men lyser med sin frånvaro i det svenska klimatarbetet. Sverige har satt mål för att minska sina utsläpp. Men de är helt otillräckliga: minskningstakten är för låg och målen tillåter samtidigt att åtgärder skjuts på framtiden. Dessutom exkluderas merparten av Sveriges utsläpp från de svenska nationella utsläppsmålen; bland annat utelämnas utsläpp som svensk konsumtion orsakar utanför Sveriges gränser, utsläpp från utrikes transporter och utsläpp från markanvändning och skogsbruk, exempelvis utsläpp från förbränning av biobränslen eller utsläpp från dikade våtmarker (Prop. 2016/17:146 s.25-28).Sverige saknar dessutom ett eget mål för att öka upptaget av växthusgaser genom utökat skydd och restaurering av ekosystem, något som krävs för att begränsa de värsta konsekvenserna av klimatkrisen (IPCC s.32). Trots dessa låga ambitioner misslyckas Sverige med att nå sina utsläppsmål, konstaterar både Klimatpolitiska rådet och Naturvårdsverket. En klimatpolitik i linje med Parisavtalet kräver både att alla typer av växthusgasutsläpp minskar samtidigt som – inte i stället för – upptaget av växthusgaser maximeras: i dag misslyckas Sverige på bägge fronter.Slutsatsen är tydlig. Sverige vidtar inte de åtgärder som krävs för att skydda barns och ungdomars rättigheter enligt Europakonventionen till skydd för de mänskliga rättigheterna. Detta medför allvarliga risker för liv och hälsa för unga generationer, människor i andra länder och särskilt utsatta grupper. Detta kan inte fortsätta. Därför ställer vi oss bakom Auroras krav att Sverige börjar göra sin rättvisa andel och omedelbart sätter igång ett omfattande och långtgående klimatarbete som vilar på vetenskaplig grund och sätter rättvisa i centrum.
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| 3. |
- Brynolf, Selma, 1984, et al.
(författare)
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Electrofuels for the transport sector: A review of production costs
- 2018
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Ingår i: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 1879-0690 .- 1364-0321. ; 81:2, s. 1887-1905
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Electrofuels (also called power-to-gas/liquids/fuels or synthetic fuels) are potential future carbon-based fuelsproduced from carbon dioxide (CO2) and water using electricity as the primary source of energy. This articleassesses the production cost of electrofuels through: (i) a literature review, focusing on which steps that have thelargest impact as well as the greatest uncertainty; (ii) a more comprehensive review, including the costs andefficiencies for the separate production steps, and (iii) calculations to compare the production costs of thedifferent fuel options in a harmonized way, including a sensitivity analysis of the parameters with the greatestimpact on the total electrofuel production cost. The assessment covers: methane, methanol, dimethyl ether,diesel, and gasoline. The literature review showed large differences among the studies and a broad range ofproduction cost estimates (10–3500 €2015/MWhfuel), which is first and foremost as a result of how authors havehandled technology matureness, installation costs, and external factors. Our calculations result in productionscosts in the range of 200–280 €2015/MWhfuel in 2015 and 160–210 €2015/MWhfuel in 2030 using base costassumptions from the literature review. Compared to biofuels, these estimates are in the upper range or above.Our results also show that the choice of energy carrier is not as critical for the electrofuels production cost astechnological choices and external factors. Instead the two most important factors affecting the production costof all electrofuels are the capital cost of the electrolyser and the electricity price, i.e., the hydrogen productioncost. The capacity factor of the unit and the life span of the electrolyser are also important parameters affectingthat production cost. In order to determine if electrofuels are a cost-effective future transport fuel relative toalternatives other than biofuels, the costs for distribution, propulsion, and storage systems need to beconsidered.
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| 4. |
- Brynolf, Selma, 1984, et al.
(författare)
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Review of electrofuel feasibility—prospects for road, ocean, and air transport
- 2022
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Ingår i: Progress in Energy. - : IOP Publishing. - 2516-1083. ; 4:4, s. 042007-042007
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To meet climate targets the emissions of greenhouse gases from transport need to be reduced considerably.Electrofuels (e-fuels) produced from low-CO2 electricity, water, and carbon (or nitrogen) are potential low-climate-impact transportation fuels. The purpose of this review is to provide a technoeconomic assessment of the feasibility and potential of e-fuels for road, ocean, and air transport.The assessment is based on a review of publications discussing e-fuels for one or more transport modes. For each transport mode, (a) e-fuel options are mapped, (b) cost per transport unit (e.g. vehicle km) and carbon abatement costs are estimated and compared to conventional options, (c) prospects and challenges are highlighted, and (d) policy context is described.Carbon abatement costs for e-fuels (considering vehicle cost, fuel production and distribution cost) are estimated to be in the range 110–1250 € tonne−1 CO2 with e-gasoline and e-diesel at the high end of the range.The investigated combined biofuel and e-fuels production pathways (based on forest residues and waste) are more cost-competitive than the stand-alone e-fuel production pathways, but the global availability of sustainable biomass is limited making these pathways more constrained.While the potential for e-fuels to decarbonize the transport sector has been discussed extensively in the literature, many uncertainties in terms of production costs, vehicle costs and environmental performance remain. It is too early to rule out or strongly promote particular e-fuels for different transport modes. For e-fuels to play a significant role in transportation, their attractiveness relative to other transport options needs to be improved. Incentives will be needed for e-fuels to be cost-effective and increased clarity on how e-fuels are linked to existing policies is needed.
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| 5. |
- de Oliveira Laurin, Maria, 1997, et al.
(författare)
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Are decarbonization strategies municipality-dependent? Generating rural road transport pathways through an iterative process in the Swedish landscape
- 2024
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Ingår i: Energy Research and Social Science. - 2214-6296. ; 114
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Energy transition studies, focusing on electricity and heating sectors, often consider a local energy system perspective. According to current state-of-the-art, a local energy systems perspective is yet and typically dismissed in the existing road transport decarbonization studies. Such studies tend to be limited to a national or global perspective, ignoring the challenges that rural areas may face. This study aims to develop a context-specific method that considers a local energy perspective when generating rural road transport decarbonization pathways. Literature review findings were iterated through participatory interactions with municipal officials from three Swedish municipalities, representing different-sized rural areas. Based on the municipalities' climate actions (fossil-free municipality targets) and the availability of local resources, five pathways were identified in an iterative and co-development manner. These pathways differed with respect to: (i) local electricity production; (ii) use of bio-sources; (iii) flexibility of public transport services; and (iv) tourism-related road traffic demands. The identified pathways were subjected to a qualitative performance assessment, which revealed that the local feasibility of each identified pathway depends on economic, environmental, and logistical factors. Although all identified pathways have the potential to contribute to the decarbonization of the municipalities' road transport systems, the municipalities preferred different pathways depending on their socio-economic, technical, and regulatory priorities.
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| 6. |
- Grahn, Maria, 1963, et al.
(författare)
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Cost-effective choices of marine fuels under stringent carbon dioxide targets
- 2013
-
Ingår i: Proceedings of 3rd International conference on technologies, operations, logistics and modelling in Low Carbon Shipping, University College London..
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In order to investigate cost-effective choices of future marine fuels in a carbon constrained world, the linear optimisation model of the global energy system, GET-RC 6.1, has been modified to GET-RC 6.2, including a more detailed representation of the shipping sector. In this study the GET-RC 6.2 model was used to assess what fuel/fuels and propulsion technology options for shipping are cost-effective to switch to when achieving global stabilisation of atmospheric CO2 concentrations at 400 ppm. The aim is to investigate (i) when is it cost-effective to start to phase out the oil from the shipping sector and what determines the speed of the phase out, (ii) under what circumstances are LNG or methanol cost-effective replacers and (iii) the role of bioenergy as a marine fuel. In our base analysis we analyse results from assuming that CCS will be large-scale available in future as well as if it will not. In the sensitivity analysis different parameters have been varied in order to investigate which impact for example different supply of primary energy sources and different costs for different transportation technologies will have on the choice of fuels in the shipping sector. Three main conclusions are presented (i) it seems to be cost-effective to start to phase out the oil from the shipping sector nearest decades, (ii) natural gas based fuels, i.e. fossil methanol and LNG are the two most probable replacers, of which methanol has been shown to dominate in the case with CCS (methanol or LNG depends on the availability of natural gas, on the methane slip and on infrastructure costs) and (iii) limited supply and competition for bioenergy among other end use sectors makes the contribution of bioenergy small, in the shipping sector.
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| 7. |
- Grahn, Maria, 1963, et al.
(författare)
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Electricity as an Energy Carrier in Transport: Cost and Efficiency Comparison of Different Pathways
- 2018
-
Ingår i: 31st International Electric Vehicle Symposium and Exhibition, EVS 2018 and International Electric Vehicle Technology Conference 2018, EVTeC 2018.
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study includes a techno-economic assessment of different pathways of using electricity in passenger cars and short sea ships, with a special focus on electrofuels (i.e.fuels produced from electricity, water and CO2) and electric road systems (ERS). For passenger cars electro-diesel is shown to be cost-competitive compare to battery electric vehicles with larger batteries (BEV50kWh) and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCEV), assuming optimistic cost for the electrolyser. ERS is shown to reduce the vehicle cost substantially compare to BEV50kWh and FCEV, but depend on a new large scale infrastructure. For ships it is shown that battery electric vessels with a relatively small battery has the lowest cost. Electro-diesel and hydrogen can compete with the battery options only when ships operate few days per year.
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| 8. |
- Grahn, Maria, 1963, et al.
(författare)
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Electrofuels: a review of pathways and production costs
- 2016
-
Ingår i: Book of proceedings_TMFB_conference_Aachen_June 2016.
-
Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Electrofuels are produced from carbon dioxide (CO2) and water using electricity as the primary source of energy. Production costs for the fuel options methane, methanol, dimethyl ether, Fischer-Tropsch (FT) diesel are estimated based on different assumptions. The production costs of these electrofuels, for a best, average and worst case, was found to be in the range of 120-135, 200-230 and 650-770 €2015/MWh fuel respectively where methane had the lowest and FT diesel the highest costs within each range.
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| 9. |
- Grahn, Maria, 1963, et al.
(författare)
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Electrofuels or hydrogen as marine fuel: a cost comparison
- 2017
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Ingår i: Conference proceedings, Shipping in Changing Climates (SCC), London, Sept 2017. ; , s. 8-
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Electrofuels (elsewhere also called e.g., power-to-gas/liquids/fuels), are fuels produced from hydrogen and carbon dioxide (CO2), using electricity as the major source of energy. Electrofuels is one potential group of fuels that could contribute to reduce the climate impact from shipping depending on type of CO2 and electricity mix (preferable non-fossil). Hydrogen, if used as a fuel itself and not as feed-stock for an electrofuel, obviously has a lower production cost compared to electrofuels (since electrofuels are produced from hydrogen). Hydrogen is preferably used in fuel cells (FCs), which have a higher conversion efficiency but also a higher cost compared to combustion engines. Electrofuels, in this study electro-diesel, has the advantage that it can be used in conventional combustion engines (ICEs). On annual basis the share “fuel cost” would be higher compared to the share “ship cost” the more the ship is used per year. The aim of this study is to analyze the following two questions (1) would the lower cost for ICEs, compared to FCc compensate for the higher fuel production cost of electrofuels? and (2) is there a breaking point where the total cost would shift between the two concepts electro-diesel in ICE vs hydrogen in FC? The cost comparisons are made for generalized types of vessels (i.e., short sea, deep sea and container). Results show that electro-diesel in ICEs can be competitive, over hydrogen in FCs, when vessels operate less than 150 days per year, whereas hydrogen has advantages when vessels are used more days per year. Container seems to be the category showing the most positive results on electro-diesel.
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| 10. |
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| 11. |
- Grahn, Maria, 1963, et al.
(författare)
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The cost-effectiveness of electrofuels in comparison to other alternative fuels for transport in a low carbon future
- 2016
-
Ingår i: European Biomass Conference and Exhibition Proceedings. - 2282-5819. ; 2016:24thEUBCE, s. 1472-1478
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- In future, a complement to biofuels, which also can originate from biomass, is electrofuels. Electrofuels are synthetic hydrocarbons, e.g. methane or methanol, produced from carbon dioxide (CO2) and water with electricity as primary energy source. The CO2 can be captured from e.g. biofuel production plants and thereby potentially provide an opportunity for biofuel producers to increase the yield from the same amount of biomass. This project assesses if there are conditions under which electrofuels are cost-effective compared to other fuels for transport in order to reach climate targets. Energy systems analysis are conducted using a well-established energy-economic long-term global energy systems model developed to include also electrofuels as transportation fuels. In this initial assessment, the results indicate that electrofuels is not the most cost-efficient option for road transport. It may become a complement to other alternatives if assuming very high cost for fuel cells and batteries. In future studies it would be interesting to analyze the impact from assuming that carbon capture and storage technologies will be large scale available, the effect of fluctuating electricity prices, and the role of electrofuels in the aviation and shipping sectors.
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| 12. |
- Grahn, Maria, 1963, et al.
(författare)
-
The cost-effectiveness of electrofuels in comparison to other alternative fuels for transport in a low carbon future
- 2016
-
Ingår i: EUBCE_conference show room_Amsterdam_June 2016.
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Electrofuels are synthetic hydrocarbons, e.g. methane or methanol, produced from carbon dioxide (CO2) and water with electricity as primary energy source. The CO2 can be captured from various industrial processes giving rise to excess CO2 e.g. biofuel production plants, and fossil and biomass combustion plants. Electrofuels potentially provide an opportunity for biofuel producers to increase the yield from the same amount of biomass. This project analyzes if there are conditions under which electrofuels are cost-effective compared to biofuels and other alternative fuels for transport in order to reach climate targets.
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| 13. |
- Grahn, Maria, 1963, et al.
(författare)
-
The role of electrofuels: A cost-effective solution for future transport?
- 2017
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Electrofuels (also known as e.g., power-to-gas/liquids/fuels, e-fuels, or synthetic fuels) are synthetichydrocarbons, e.g. methane or methanol, produced from carbon dioxide (CO2) and water with electricity as primary energy source. The CO2 can be captured from various industrial processes giving rise to excess CO2 e.g. biofuel production plants, and fossil and biomass combustionplants. Electrofuels are interesting at least for the following reasons: (i) electrofuels may play an importantrole as transport fuels in the future due to limitations with other options and are potentially of interestfor all transport modes, (ii) electrofuels could be used to store intermittent electricity production,and (iii) electrofuels potentially provide an opportunity for biofuel producers to increase the yield from the same amount of biomass. The overall purpose of this project is to deepen the knowledge of electrofuels by mapping andanalyzing the technical and economic potential and by analyzing the potential role of electrofuels inthe future energy system aiming to reach stringent climate targets. The specific project targets include:(i) Mapping of the technical potential for CO2-recovering from Swedish production plants forbiofuels for transport and combustion plants.(ii) A review and analysis of different electrofuel production pathways and associated costsand an overall comparison with the production cost of other renewable transport fuels.(iii) An analysis of the potential conditions under which electrofuels are cost-effective comparedto other alternative fuels for transport in order to reach stringent climate targets. Main conclusions are: (1)Electrofuels used in combustion engines demand significantly more energy compared tobattery electric vehicles and hydrogen used in fuel cells, (2) Compared to biofuels, our estimates of the production costs of electrofuels are in the samesize of order but in the upper range or above, (3) The results of the energy system modelling indicate that electrofuels is not the most costefficientoption for road transport. Thus, it is not likely that electrofuels can compete withcurrent conventional fuels in road transportation (unless there are higher taxes on fossilCO2-emissions), (4) Under some circumstances (e.g., when assuming relatively high costs for other options),electrofuels may be able to complement battery electric vehicles and hydrogen used in fuelcells in a scenario reaching almost zero CO2 emissions in the global road transport sector, (5) The cost-competitiveness of electrofuels depends on e.g. the availability of advanced CO2reduction technologies such as CCS, and costs for the competing technologies, but also onthe costs and efficiencies of synthesis reactors and electrolysers for the electrofuel productionas well as the electricity price, (6) In the short term, renewable CO2 does not seem to be a limiting factor for electrofuels.However, the demand for renewable electricity represents a possible limiting factor especiallyin the case of large-scale production of electrofuels. The production cost may alsorepresent a challenge.
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| 14. |
- Grahn, Maria, 1963, et al.
(författare)
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Utilising excess power: the case of electrofuels for transport
- 2014
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Ingår i: Systems Perspectives on Renewable Power 2014. - 9789198097405 ; , s. 128-137
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- If the production of electricity at a given moment in time is higher than demandwe may talk about excess electricity.1 It is possible to store excess electricity andstorage solutions might be essential for achieving very high renewable energyshares in the energy system. The most common purpose for storing electricity isof course to convert the stored energy back to electricity when needed. Currentlythere are not many mature alternatives for seasonal energy storage. Pumpedhydro, hydrogen and compressed air are facing challenges with geographicaldistribution and ecological footprint, technical limitations or low density.2 Anotheroption is to convert electricity into an energy carrier that can be used for otherpurposes, and not just as a medium for electricity storage. One possibility is to useperiods of excess electricity for the production of carbon-based synthetic fuels,so called electrofuels,3 that can be used for various purposes, e.g. for heating,as a transportation fuel or in the chemical industry for the production of plastics,textiles, medicine and fertilizers. One challenge, common to all energy storage technologies, is to be economicallyviable in spite of the fact that excess, or low priced, electricity will likely be availableonly a fraction of the time. This chapter aims to explore the challenges andopportunities of using electrofuels to utilise excess electricity. Production processesare described and costs are estimated to underpin a discussion on what isrequired to make electrofuels competitive with gasoline.
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| 15. |
- Hansson, Julia, et al.
(författare)
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Review of electrofuel feasibility - cost and environmental impact
- 2022
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Ingår i: Progress in Energy. - Stockholm : IOP Publishing. - 2516-1083. ; A:2595
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Electrofuels, fuels produced from electricity, water, and carbon or nitrogen, are of interest assubstitutes for fossil fuels in all energy and chemical sectors. This paper focuses on electrofuels for transportation, where some can be used in existing vehicle/vessel/aircraft fleets and fueling infrastructure.The aim of this study is to review publications on electrofuels and summarize costs and environmental performance. A special case, denoted as bio-electrofuels, involves hydrogen supplementing existing biomethane production (e.g. anaerobic digestion) to generate additional or different fuels. We use costs, identified in the literature, to calculate harmonized production costs for a range of electrofuels and bio-electrofuels.Results from the harmonized calculations show that bio-electrofuels generally have lower costs than electrofuels produced using captured carbon. Lowest costs are found for liquefied bio-electro-methane, bio-electro-methanol, and bio-electro-dimethyl ether. The highest cost is for electro-jet fuel. All analyzed fuels have the potential for long-term production costs in the range 90–160 € per MWh. Dominant factors impacting production costs are electrolyzer and electricity costs, the latter connected to capacity factors (CFs) and cost for hydrogen storage. Electrofuel production costs also depend on regional conditions for renewable electricity generation, which are analyzed in sensitivity analyses usingcorresponding CFs in four European regions.Results show a production cost range forelectro-methanol of 76–118 € per MWh depending on scenario and region assuming an electrolyzer CAPEX of 300–450 € per kWelec and CFs of 45%–65%. Lowest production costs are found in regions with good conditions for renewable electricity, such as Ireland and western Spain. The choice of system boundary has a large impact on the environmental assessments. The literature is not consistent regarding the environmental impact from different CO2 sources. The literature, however, points to the fact that renewable energy sources are required to achieve low global warming impact over the electrofuel life cycle.
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| 16. |
- Hansson, Julia, 1978, et al.
(författare)
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The potential for electrofuels production in Sweden utilizing fossil and biogenic CO2 point sources
- 2017
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Energy Research. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2296-598X. ; 5:4, s. 12-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper maps, categorizes, and quantifies all major point sources of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from industrial and combustion processes in Sweden. The paper also estimates the Swedish technical potential for electrofuels (power-to-gas/fuels) based on carbon capture and utilization. With our bottom-up approach using European data-bases, we find that Sweden emits approximately 50 million metric tons of CO2 per year from different types of point sources, with 65% (or about 32 million tons) from biogenic sources. The major sources are the pulp and paper industry (46%), heat and power production (23%), and waste treatment and incineration (8%). Most of the CO2 is emitted at low concentrations (<15%) from sources in the southern part of Sweden where power demand generally exceeds in-region supply. The potentially recoverable emissions from all the included point sources amount to 45 million tons. If all the recoverable CO2 were used to produce electrofuels, the yield would correspond to 2–3 times the current Swedish demand for transportation fuels. The electricity required would correspond to about 3 times the current Swedish electricity supply. The current relatively few emission sources with high concentrations of CO2 (>90%, biofuel operations) would yield electrofuels corresponding to approximately 2% of the current demand for transportation fuels (corresponding to 1.5–2 TWh/year). In a 2030 scenario with large-scale biofuels operations based on lignocellulosic feedstocks, the potential for electrofuels production from high-concentration sources increases to 8–11 TWh/year. Finally, renewable electricity and production costs, rather than CO2 supply, limit the potential for production of electrofuels in Sweden.
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| 17. |
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| 18. |
- Taljegård, Maria, 1988, et al.
(författare)
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Cost-Effective Choices of Marine Fuels in a Carbon-Constrained World: Results from a Global Energy Model
- 2014
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Ingår i: Environmental Science & Technology. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 0013-936X .- 1520-5851. ; 48:21, s. 12986-12993
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The regionalized Global Energy Transition model has been modified to include a more detailed shipping sector in order to assess what marine fuels and propulsion technologies might be cost-effective by 2050 when achieving an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 400 or 500 ppm by the year 2100. The robustness of the results was examined in a Monte Carlo analysis, varying uncertain parameters and technology options, including the amount of primary energy resources, the availability of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, and costs of different technologies and fuels. The four main findings are (i) it is cost-effective to start the phase out of fuel oil from the shipping sector in the next decade; (ii) natural gas-based fuels (liquefied natural gas and methanol) are the most probable substitutes during the study period; (iii) availability of CCS, the CO2 target, the liquefied natural gas tank cost and potential oil resources affect marine fuel choices significantly; and (iv) biofuels rarely play a major role in the shipping sector, due to limited supply and competition for bioenergy from other energy sectors.
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| 19. |
- Taljegård, Maria, 1988, et al.
(författare)
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Electrofuels – a possibility for shipping in a low carbon future?
- 2015
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Ingår i: Proceedings of International Conference on Shipping in Changing Climates, Glasgow, Nov 2015. ; 2, s. 405-418
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Continued growth of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the shipping industry until 2050 and beyond is expected although of the recent decline. The global share of anthropogenic CO2 emissions from ships is only about 2 percent, but there is a risk that this share will increase substantially if no action is taken. What are the possibilities for decarbonisation of the shipping industry, then? Some of the measures discussed are energy efficiency, use of biofuels and use of hydrogen. In this paper a fourth option is scrutinised – use of electrofuels. Electrofuels is an umbrella term for carbon-based fuels, e.g. methane or methanol, which are produced using electricity as the primary source of energy. The carbon in the fuel comes from CO2 which can be captured from various industrial processes such as exhaust gases, the sea or the air. The production of electrofuels is still in its infancy, and many challenges need to be overcome before electrofuels are brought to market on a large scale. First, this paper gives an overview of the current status of electrofuels regarding technologies, efficiencies and costs. Second, as electrofuels production requires significant amounts of CO2 and electricity, the feasibility to produce enough electrofuels to supply all ships bunkering in Sweden, with regionally produced electricity and regionally emitted CO2, and the amount of CO2 that is required to supply all ships globally is evaluated in two case studies assessing supply potential.
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| 20. |
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| 21. |
- Ahlgren, Erik, 1962, et al.
(författare)
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Global transport biofuel futures in energy-economy modeling: a review
- 2015
-
Ingår i: E-book: Proceedings of the conference “sustainable futures in a changing climate”. - 9789522493033 ; , s. 119-130
-
Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The high oil dependence and the growth of energy use in the transport sector have increased interest in alternative fuels as a measure to mitigate climate change and improve energy security. More ambitious energy and environmental targets and larger use of alternative energy in the transport sector increase system effects over sector boundaries, and while the stationary energy sector (e.g., electricity and heat generation) and the transport sector earlier to large degree could be considered as separate systems with limited interaction, integrated analysis approaches now grow in importance. In recent years, the scientific literature has presented an increasing number of energy-economic future studies based on systems modeling treating the transport sector as an integrated part of the energy system and/or economy. Many of these studies provide important insights regarding transport biofuels. To clarify similarities and differences in approaches and results, the present work reviews studies within this field and investigates what future role comprehensive energy-economy modeling studies portray for transport biofuels in terms of their potential and competitiveness.
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| 22. |
- Ahlgren, Erik, 1962, et al.
(författare)
-
Transport biofuels in global energy–economy modelling – a review of comprehensive energy systems assessment approaches
- 2017
-
Ingår i: GCB Bioenergy. - : Wiley. - 1757-1707 .- 1757-1693. ; 9, s. 1168–1180-
-
Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- The high oil dependence and the growth of energy use in the transport sector have increased the interest in alternative nonfossil fuels as a measure to mitigate climate change and improve energy security. More ambitious energy and environmental targets and larger use of nonfossil energy in the transport sector increase energy–transport interactions and system effects over sector boundaries. While the stationary energy sector (e.g., electricity and heat generation) and the transport sector earlier to large degree could be considered as separate systems with limited interaction, integrated analysis approaches and assessments of energy–transport interactions now grow in importance. In recent years, the scientific literature has presented an increasing number of global energy–economy future studies based on systems modelling treating the transport sector as an integral part of the overall energy system and/or economy. Many of these studies provide important insights regarding transport biofuels. To clarify similarities and differences in approaches and results, the present work reviews studies on transport biofuels in global energy–economy modelling and investigates what future role comprehensive global energy–economy modelling studies portray for transport biofuels in terms of their potential and competitiveness. The results vary widely between the studies, but the resulting transport biofuel market shares are mainly below 40% during the entire time periods analysed. Some of the reviewed studies show higher transport biofuel market shares in the medium (15–30 years) than in the long term (above 30 years), and, in the long-term models, at the end of the modelling horizon, transport biofuels are often substituted by electric and hydrogen cars.
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| 23. |
- Alvfors, Per, et al.
(författare)
-
Research and development challenges for Swedish biofuel actors – three illustrative examples
- 2010
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Currently biofuels have strong political support, both in the EU and Sweden. The EU has, for example, set a target for the use of renewable fuels in the transportation sector stating that all EU member states should use 10% renewable fuels for transport by 2020. Fulfilling this ambition will lead to an enormous market for biofuels during the coming decade. To avoid increasing production of biofuels based on agriculture crops that require considerable use of arable area, focus is now to move towards more advanced second generation (2G) biofuels that can be produced from biomass feedstocks associated with a more efficient land use.Climate benefits and greenhouse gas (GHG) balances are aspects often discussed in conjunction with sustainability and biofuels. The total GHG emissions associated with production and usage of biofuels depend on the entire fuel production chain, mainly the agriculture or forestry feedstock systems and the manufacturing process. To compare different biofuel production pathways it is essential to conduct an environmental assessment using the well-to-tank (WTT) analysis methodology. In Sweden the conditions for biomass production are favourable and we have promising second generation biofuels technologies that are currently in the demonstration phase. In this study we have chosen to focus on cellulose based ethanol, methane from gasification of solid wood as well as DME from gasification of black liquor, with the purpose of identifying research and development potentials that may result in improvements in the WTT emission values. The main objective of this study is thus to identify research and development challenges for Swedish biofuel actors based on literature studies as well as discussions with the the researchers themselves. We have also discussed improvement potentials for the agriculture and forestry part of the WTT chain. The aim of this study is to, in the context of WTT analyses, (i) increase knowledge about the complexity of biofuel production, (ii) identify and discuss improvement potentials, regarding energy efficiency and GHG emissions, for three biofuel production cases, as well as (iii) identify and discuss improvement potentials regarding biomass supply, including agriculture/forestry. The scope of the study is limited to discussing the technologies, system aspects and climate impacts associated with the production stage. Aspects such as the influence on biodiversity and other environmental and social parameters fall beyond the scope of this study. We find that improvement potentials for emissions reductions within the agriculture/forestry part of the WTT chain include changing the use of diesel to low-CO2-emitting fuels, changing to more fuel-efficient tractors, more efficient cultivation and manufacture of fertilizers (commercial nitrogen fertilizer can be produced in plants which have nitrous oxide gas cleaning) as well as improved fertilization strategies (more precise nitrogen application during the cropping season). Furthermore, the cultivation of annual feedstock crops could be avoided on land rich in carbon, such as peat soils and new agriculture systems could be introduced that lower the demand for ploughing and harrowing. Other options for improving the WTT emission values includes introducing new types of crops, such as wheat with higher content of starch or willow with a higher content of cellulose. From the case study on lignocellulosic ethanol we find that 2G ethanol, with co-production of biogas, electricity, heat and/or wood pellet, has a promising role to play in the development of sustainable biofuel production systems. Depending on available raw materials, heat sinks, demand for biogas as vehicle fuel and existing 1G ethanol plants suitable for integration, 2G ethanol production systems may be designed differently to optimize the economic conditions and maximize profitability. However, the complexity connected to the development of the most optimal production systems require improved knowledge and involvement of several actors from different competence areas, such as chemical and biochemical engineering, process design and integration and energy and environmental systems analysis, which may be a potential barrier. Three important results from the lignocellulosic ethanol study are: (i) the production systems could be far more complex and intelligently designed than previous studies show, (ii) the potential improvements consist of a large number of combinations of process integration options wich partly depends on specific local conditions, (iii) the environmental performance of individual systems may vary significantly due to systems design and local conditons.From the case study on gasification of solid biomass for the production of biomethane we find that one of the main advantages of this technology is its high efficiency in respect to converting biomass into fuels for transport. For future research we see a need for improvements within the gas up-grading section, including gas cleaning and gas conditioning, to obtain a more efficient process. A major challenge is to remove the tar before the methanation reaction. Three important results from the biomethane study are: (i) it is important not to crack the methane already produced in the syngas, which indicates a need for improved catalysts for selective tar cracking, (ii) there is a need for new gas separation techniques to facilitate the use of air oxidation agent instead of oxygen in the gasifier, and (iii) there is a need for testing the integrated process under realistic conditions, both at atmospheric and pressurized conditions. From the case study on black liquor gasification for the production of DME we find that the process has many advantages compared to other biofuel production options, such as the fact that black liquor is already partially processed and exists in a pumpable, liquid form, and that the process is pressurised and tightly integrated with the pulp mill, which enhances fuel production efficiency. However, to achieve commercial status, some challenges still remain, such as demonstrating that materials and plant equipment meet the high availability required when scaling up to industrial size in the pulp mill, and also proving that the plant can operate according to calculated heat and material balances. Three important results from the DME study are: (i) that modern chemical pulp mills, having a potential surplus of energy, could become important suppliers of renewable fuels for transport, (ii) there is a need to demonstrate that renewable DME/methanol will be proven to function in large scale, and (iii) there is still potential for technology improvements and enhanced energy integration. Although quantitative improvement potentials are given in the three biofuel production cases, it is not obvious how these potentials would affect WTT values, since the biofuel production processes are complex and changing one parameter impacts other parameters. The improvement potentials are therefore discussed qualitatively. From the entire study we have come to agree on the following common conclusions: (i) research and development in Sweden within the three studied 2G biofuel production technologies is extensive, (ii) in general, the processes, within the three cases, work well at pilot and demonstration scale and are now in a phase to be proven in large scale, (iii) there is still room for improvement although some processes have been known for decades, (iv) the biofuel production processes are complex and site specific and process improvements need to be seen and judged from a broad systems perspective (both within the production plant as well as in the entire well-to-tank perspective), and (v) the three studied biofuel production systems are complementary technologies. Futher, the process of conducting this study is worth mentioning as a result itself, i.e. that many different actors within the field have proven their ability and willingness to contribute to a common report, and that the cooperation climate was very positive and bodes well for possible future collaboration within the framework of the f3 center. Finally, judging from the political ambitions it is clear that the demand for renewable fuels will significantly increase during the coming decade. This will most likely result in opportunities for a range of biofuel options. The studied biofuel options all represent 2G biofuels and they can all be part of the solution to meet the increased renewable fuel demand.
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| 24. |
- Andersson, Karin, 1952, et al.
(författare)
-
Criteria and Decision Support for A Sustainable Choice of Alternative Marine Fuels
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Sustainability. - : MDPI AG. - 2071-1050. ; 12:9, s. 3623-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To reach the International Maritime Organization, IMO, vision of a 50% greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction by 2050, there is a need for action. Good decision support is needed for decisions on fuel and energy conversion systems due to the complexity. This paper aims to get an overview of the criteria types included in present assessments of future marine fuels, to evaluate these and to highlight the most important criteria. This is done using a literature review of selected scientific articles and reports and the authors’ own insights from assessing marine fuels. There are different views regarding the goal of fuel change, what fuel names to use as well as regarding the criteria to assess, which therefore vary in the literature. Quite a few articles and reports include a comparison of several alternative fuels. To promote a transition to fuels with significant GHG reduction potential, it is crucial to apply a life cycle perspective and to assess fuel options in a multicriteria perspective. The recommended minimum set of criteria to consider when evaluating future marine fuels differ somewhat between fuels that can be used in existing ships and fuels that can be used in new types of propulsion systems
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| 25. |
- Azar, Christian, 1969, et al.
(författare)
-
Brazilian Ethanol has the Edge.
- 2007
-
Ingår i: Financial Times.
-
Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 26. |
|
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| 27. |
- Brynolf, Selma, 1984, et al.
(författare)
-
Sustainable fuels for shipping
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Sustainable Energy Systems on Ships: Novel Technologies for Low Carbon Shipping. ; , s. 403-428
-
Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The International Maritime Organization (IMO) aims to reduce the total annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from international shipping by at least 50% by 2050 compared to 2008 and to phase them out as soon as possible. Decarbonized shipping represents a considerable challenge since the GHG emissions are estimated to increase by 2050 in several scenarios [1]. Decarbonization of shipping is important and urgent, but at the same time it is also important to make sure that other environmental impacts and sustainability concerns will not increase as a result. It is important to have a wide systems perspective when searching for solutions so that a sustainable shipping industry can be reached considering environmental, social, and economic dimensions and following the UN Sustainable Development Goals. This chapter starts by defining fuel, energy carriers, and primary energy sources in Section 9.2 followed by a description of the main primary energy sources that can be used to produce sustainable shipping fuels in Section 9.3 and potential energy carriers for ships in Section 9.4. Section 9.5 describes some of the pros and cons of different future fuels for shipping against technical, environmental, economic, and other criteria. Final reflections on how to choose future fuels are presented in Section 9.6.
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| 28. |
- Börjesson, Martin, 1980, et al.
(författare)
-
Transport biofuel futures in energy economy modeling: a review.
- 2013
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The high oil dependence and the growth of energy use in the transport sector have increased interest in alternative fuels as a measure to mitigate climate change and improve energy security. More ambitious energy and environmental targets and larger use of alternative energy in the transport sector increase system effects over sector boundaries, and while the stationary energy sector (e.g., electricity and heat generation) and the transport sector earlier to large degree could be considered as separate systems with limited interaction, integrated analysis approaches now grow in importance. In recent years, the scientific literature has presented an increasing number of energy-economic systems analysis modeling studies treating the transport sector as an integrated part of the energy system and/or economy. Many of these studies provide important insights regarding transport biofuels. The work summarizes and analyzes input data and transport biofuel-related results of 29 peer reviewed scientific journal articles presenting studies based on different energy-economic models. About half of the studies apply a global perspective and about half a regional or national perspective. Examples of models and model frameworks that are used in the studies included in the review are PRIMES, MARKAL, TIMES, AIM/Enduse, POLES, GCAM, GET and REDGEM70. The studies apply medium-term to long-term perspectives, with time horizons in most cases ending between 2040 and 2100. Most of the studies show low to intermediate market shares, with levels below 40% at the end of the studied time horizons for climate policy scenarios. Biofuels are to a higher degree seen in medium-term than in long-term model results. In the latter case, many of the models instead favor hydrogen or electricity-based transport options as competition for limited amounts of biomass increases with more stringent emission targets. Besides transport biofuels, energy efficient vehicle technologies, such as plug-in hybrids and, in the longer term, fuel cell vehicles, are an essential part in many of the model scenarios meeting future stringent climate targets.
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| 29. |
- Cebrat, Gerfried, et al.
(författare)
-
Methods to determine robust innovation paths for electric vehicle technology
- 2009
-
Ingår i: 24th International Battery, Hybrid and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Symposium and Exhibition 2009, EVS 24. - 9781615674558 ; 4, s. 2345-2354
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The following paper introduces a structured approach assessing the probability for the success of specific technologies increasing the endurance/autonomy of BEV's (Battery Electric Vehicles). Apart from range extenders, flow batteries (redox batteries as one variant) which might be refilled with electrolyte similar to conventional vehicles and technological improvements, the exchange of batteries is a method allowing BEV's similar ranges and similar usability like vehicles with internal combustion engines as they are currently used. The suggested way for the investigation into the success of the concept holds a two fold approach: Mapping the innovation: Enumerating the influencing factors Assessing: In-depth research of acceptance In step one influence analysis (causal loop) is applied to determine the most active factors and the system dynamics. In step two a multi criteria decision analysis is employed in order to quantify the potential impact of the factors/characteristics on the probability of the success of the concepts. The two step methodology is presented for the battery exchange system (swappable battery), because for this system it is easiest to determine the technological aspects being purely mechanical and also the market impact based on the pre-existing knowledge of the facts. The range extenders and flow batteries still need technological research clarifying the operational characteristics of an industrialised concept before a robust assessment may be conducted. The paper anticipates the acceptance of the first mentioned concepts and enumerates the questions that have to be solved in order to allow a successful use case. The closing chapter analyses the influence of paradigm change on the assessment introducing uncertainties. In this respect it is shown how in depth foresight studies may reduce the risk for the innovator by introducing the actors/users introducing criteria for success and failure.
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| 30. |
- Dahal, Karna, 1984, et al.
(författare)
-
Reviewing the development of alternative aviation fuels and aircraft propulsion systems
- 2020
-
Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Alternative aviation fuels such as bio-jet fuels, liquid natural gas (LCH4), hydrogen (H2), electro-jet fuels and direct electricity use play an important role in decarbonizing the aviation sector. New aircraft propulsion systems are being developed but low-blending of fuels is possible for some options. It is imperative to understand the technical, environmental and economic performance of the different alternative aviation fuels and the new engine and propulsion technologies for the utilization of these fuels. We have reviewed various literature to map the current status of development on alternative aviation fuels and related aircraft propulsion systems in relation to different perspective such as their cost and technical maturity. There are several challenges related to the design and implementation of the fuels and new propulsion systems. For instance, the volumetric energy content of alternative fuels is lower than the conventional aviation fuels which requires larger fuel storage tanks. Despite the advantageous environmental performance, both the bio-jet and electro-jet fuels are currently not economically competitive. Yet, studies forecast that increased use of alternative aviation fuels is possible after modifications of engines, fuel storage tanks and improvements of the aerodynamics of aircraft and by introducing subsidies and/or carbon taxes on conventional jet fuels.
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| 31. |
- Dahal, Karna, 1984, et al.
(författare)
-
Techno-economic review of alternative fuels and propulsion systems for the aviation sector
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 1879-0690 .- 1364-0321. ; 151
-
Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Substitution of conventional jet fuel with low-to zero-carbon-emitting alternative aviation fuels is vital for meeting the climate targets for aviation. It is important to understand the technical, environmental, and economic performance of alternative aviation fuels and prospective engine and propulsion technologies for future aircraft. This study reviews alternative fuels and propulsion systems, focusing on costs and technical maturity, and presents conceptual aircraft designs for different aviation fuels. The cost review includes minimum jet fuel selling price (MJFSP) for alternative aviation fuels. Direct operating cost (DOC) is estimated based on the conceptual aircraft designs and the reviewed MJFSP. The DOCs for bio-jet fuel (5.0–9.2 US cent per passenger-kilometer (¢/PAX/km)), fossil and renewable liquefied hydrogen (5.9–10.1 and 8.1–23.9 ¢/PAX/km, respectively), and electro-methane and electro-jet fuel (5.6–16.7 and 9.2–23.7 ¢/PAX/km, respectively) are higher than for conventional jet fuel (3.9–4.8 ¢/PAX/km) and liquefied natural gas (4.2–5.2 ¢/PAX/km). Overall, DOC of renewable aviation fuels is 15–500 % higher than conventional jet fuels. Among the bio-jet fuels, hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (23–310 $/GJ) and alcohol-to-jet (4–215 $/GJ) pathways offer the lowest MJFSPs. The implementation of alternative fuels in existing aircraft engines and the design and development of appropriate propulsion systems and aircraft are challenging. The overall cost is a key factor for future implementation. Bio-jet fuel is most promising in the near term while hydrogen and electrofuels in the long term. The level of carbon tax on fossil jet fuels needed for the latter options to be competitive depend on the hydrogen production cost.
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| 32. |
- Ehnberg, Jimmy, 1976, et al.
(författare)
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Grid and storage
- 2014
-
Ingår i: Systems Perspectives on Renewable Power 2014. - 9789198097405 ; , s. 46-59
-
Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 33. |
- Ehnberg, Jimmy, 1976, et al.
(författare)
-
Nät och elenergilager
- 2014
-
Ingår i: Perspektiv på förnybar el 2014. - 9789198097436 ; , s. 14-15
-
Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 34. |
- Girod, Bastien, et al.
(författare)
-
Climate impact of transportation: A model comparison
- 2013
-
Ingår i: Climatic Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1573-1480 .- 0165-0009. ; 118:3-4, s. 595-608
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Transportation contributes to a significant and rising share of global energy use and GHG emissions. Therefore modeling future travel demand, its fuel use, and resulting CO2 emission is highly relevant for climate change mitigation. In this study we compare the baseline projections for global service demand (passenger-kilometers, ton-kilometers), fuel use, and CO2 emissions of five different global transport models using harmonized input assumptions on income and population. For four models we also evaluate the impact of a carbon tax. All models project a steep increase in service demand over the century. Technology change is important for limiting energy consumption and CO2 emissions, the study also shows that in order to stabilise or even decrease emissions radical changes would be required. While all models project liquidfossil fuels dominating up to 2050, they differ regarding the use of alternative fuels (natural gas, hydrogen, biofuels, and electricity), because of different fuel price projections. The carbon tax of 200 USD/tCO2 in 2050 stabilizes or reverses global emission growth in all models. Besides common findings many differences in the model assumptions and projections indicate room for further understanding long-term trends and uncertainty in future transport systems.
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| 35. |
- Grahn, Maria, 1963, et al.
(författare)
-
Biomass for heat or as transportation fuel? - a comparison between two model based studies
- 2007
-
Ingår i: Biomass & Bioenergy. ; 31, s. 747-758
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In two different energy economy models of the global energy system, the cost-effective use of biomass under a stringent carbon constraint has been analyzed. Gielen et al. conclude that it is cost-effective to use biofuels for transportation, whereas Azar et al. find that it is more cost-effective to use most of the biomass to generate heat and process heat, despite the fact that assumptions about the cost of biofuels production is similar in the models. In this study, we compare the two models with the purpose of finding an explanation for these different results. It was found that both models suggest that biomass is most cost-effectively used for heat production for low carbon taxes (below 50–100 USD/tC, depending on the year in question). But for higher carbon taxes, the cost-effective choice reverses in the BEAP model, but not in the GET model. The reason for this is that GET includes hydrogen from carbon-free energy sources as a technology option, whereas that option is not allowed in the BEAP model. In all other sectors, both models include carbon-free options above biomass. Thus, with higher carbon taxes, biomass will eventually become the cost-effective choice in the transportation sector in BEAP, regardless of its technology cost parameters.
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| 36. |
- Grahn, Maria, 1963, et al.
(författare)
-
Biomass for heat or as transportation fuel? A comparison between two model-based studies
- 2007
-
Ingår i: Biomass and Bioenergy. - : Elsevier BV. - 1873-2909 .- 0961-9534. ; 31:11-12, s. 747-758
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In two different energy economy models of the global energy system, the cost-effective use of biomass under a stringent carbon constraint has been analyzed. Gielen et al. conclude that it is cost-effective to use biofuels for transportation, whereas Azar et al. find that it is more cost-effective to use most of the biomass to generate heat and process heat, despite the fact that assumptions about the cost of biofuels production is similar in the models. In this study, we compare the two models with the purpose of finding an explanation for these different results. It was found that both models suggest that biomass is most cost-effectively used for heat production for low carbon taxes (below 50-100 USD/tC, depending on the year in question). But for higher carbon taxes, the cost-effective choice reverses in the BEAP model, but not in the GET model. The reason for this is that GET includes hydrogen from carbon-free energy sources as a technology option, whereas that option is not allowed in the BEAP model. In all other sectors, both models include carbon-free options above biomass. Thus, with higher carbon taxes, biomass will eventually become the cost-effective choice in the transportation sector in BEAP, regardless of its technology cost parameters. © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 37. |
- Grahn, Maria, 1963, et al.
(författare)
-
BIOMASS FOR HEAT OR AS TRANSPORTATION FUEL? A COMPARISON BETWEEN TWO MODEL BASED STUDIES
- 2005
-
Ingår i: The 14th European Conference and Technology Exhibition on Biomass for Energy, Industry and Climate in Paris, 17-21 October.
-
Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In two different energy economy models of the global energy system, the cost-effective use of biomass under a stringent carbon constraint has been analyzed. Gielen et al. conclude that it is cost-effective to use biofuels for transportation, whereas Azar et al. find that it is more cost-effective to use most of the biomass to generate heat and process heat, despite the fact that assumptions about the cost of biofuels production is rather similar in the models. In this study, we compare the two models with the purpose to find an explanation for these different results. It is found that both models suggest that biomass is most cost-effectively used for heat production for low carbon taxes (below 50-100 USD/tC, depending on the year in question). But for higher carbon taxes the cost effective choice reverses in the BEAP model, but not in the GET model. The reason for that is that GET includes hydrogen from carbon free energy sources as a technology option, whereas that option is not allowed in the BEAP model. In allother sectors, both models include carbon free options above biomass. Thus with higher carbon taxes, biomass will eventually become the cost-effective choice in the transportation sector in BEAP, regardless of its technology cost parameters.
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| 38. |
- Grahn, Maria, 1963
(författare)
-
Can electrofuels in combustion engines be cost-competitive to hydrogen in fuel cells?
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Proceedings of 5th TMFB, Tailor-Made Fuels from Production to Propulsion, Aachen, 20-22 June, 2017.
-
Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Tailor-made synthetic fuels, here called electrofuels, are fuels produced from hydrogen and carbon dioxide, using electricity as the major source of energy. This study analyzes under what circumstances electrofuels used in combustion engines may be cost-competitive to hydrogen used in fuel cells, for cars, trucks and shipping. Results show that electro-diesel can be competitive when vehicles and vessels operate only part time of the year, whereas hydrogen has advantages when vehicles and vessels are used for longer distances more days over the year. Cars is the category showing the most positive results on electro-diesel
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| 39. |
- Grahn, Maria, 1963
(författare)
-
Cost-effective fuel and technology choices in the transportation sector in a future carbon constrained world: Results from the Global Energy Transition (GET) model
- 2009
-
Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This thesis analyzes future fuel and technology choices focusing on transport in a carbon constrained world. The analysis tool used in all five appended papers is the cost-minimizing Global Energy Transition (GET) model. Paper I analyzes cost-effective fuel and technology choices for passenger vehicles under a variety of vehicle cost-assumptions and how these choices depend on technology paths in the electricity sector. We find that cost estimates as well as the availability of carbon capture and storage technology and concentrating solar power have a substantial impact, ranging from a dominance of hydrogen to a dominance of electricity. Paper II analyzes the cost-effectiveness of biofuels for transportation, assuming that industrialized regions start reducing their CO2 emissions some decades ahead of developing regions. We find that biofuels may play a more important role for transportation in industrialized regions if these regions assume their responsibilities and reduce emissions before developing regions start reducing theirs, compared to the case in which all countries take action under a global cap and trade emissions reduction regime. Paper III analyzes how policy instruments aimed at increasing the use of biofuels for transportation in industrialized regions affect CO2 emissions in industrialized and developing regions. We find that such policy instruments may lead to avoided emissions in industrialized regions, especially during the first 50 years, and in a few specific cases in the developing regions, too. However, in the majority of cases, such a biofuels policy leads to increased emissions in the developing regions, i.e., to “carbon leakage.” Paper IV analyzes why two global energy systems models reach different results on the cost-effectiveness of biofuels, although the models have strong similarities. We find biomass most cost-effectively used for heat production at low CO2 taxes in both models. Biomass allocation at higher CO2 taxes may depend on whether CO2-neutral hydrogen and/or electricity are assumed available for the transportation sector at sufficiently low cost. Paper V investigates prices and costs in the GET model, and how these change over time, to get a deeper understanding of why biofuels generally are not a cost-effective transportation fuel choice in the model. We compare the total cost per km for each fuel choice, based on the primary energy prices and carbon tax generated by the model. We find that the required carbon tax level for biofuels to become cost-effective, compared to fossil-based fuels, is a “moving target.” The required tax level increases with an increase in carbon taxes, since the latter increases the price of biomass energy in the model.
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| 40. |
- Grahn, Maria, 1963, et al.
(författare)
-
Cost effective fuel choices in the transportation sector under different international climate regimes – results from a regionalized version of the global energy transition model, GET-R
- 2007
-
Ingår i: Proceedings Book of 15th European Biomass Conference and Exhibition from Research to Market Deployment, Industry and Climate, Berlin, Germany, 7-11 May.
-
Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- ABSTRACT: The aim of this study is to analyze cost-effective fuel choices in the transportation sector, given that the industrialized regions take the lead in mitigating global warming. The analysis is carried out with a regionalized version of the global energy transition model, GET-R 6.0. It is a linear programming model and it has three end-use sectors: electricity, heat and transportation fuels. It is set up to generate the energy supply mix that meets exogenously given energy demands and carbon constraints at the lowest global energy system cost under different international climate regimes. Two different CO2 reduction scenarios are applied, both meeting an atmospheric CO2 concentration target of 450 ppm by the year 2100. In the first scenario, global CO2 emissions trading are allowed. In the second scenario, it is assumed that emission reductions are not tradable across regions and that the industrialized regions take the lead in mitigating global warming. They start to reduce their CO2 emissions from 2010 while developing regions wait several decades. In this second scenario CO2 emissions are assumed to meet an equal per capita distribution of 1.0 tC/capita, in all six regions, in 2050 and then jointly follow an emission reduction path, towards 0.17 tC/capita (equal to a global emission of 2 GtC) in 2100. The results show that biofuels for transport in industrialized regions reach a mean value of 16% of the total fuel use over this century in the second scenario compared to less than half of that, 6%, in the first scenario.
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| 41. |
- Grahn, Maria, 1963
(författare)
-
Cost-effective fuel choices in the transportation sector under stringent CO2-emission reduction targets - Global energy systems modelling
- 2006
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Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This thesis analyzes the worlds future energy supply in general, and cost-effective fuel choices in the transportation sector in particular, under stringent CO2 constraints. The analysis is carried out with the help of a global energy systems model (GET), developed and modified specifically for each project. GET is a linear programming model and it has three end-use sectors: electricity, heat and transportation fuel. It is set up to generate the energy supply mix that would meet exogenously given energy demand levels at the lowest global cost. This thesis consists of the following three papers (i) an analysis of why two similar global energy systems models, GET and BEAP, give different results as to whether biofuels will become cost-effective in the transportation sector, (ii) an analysis of cost effective fuel choices in a regionalized version of the GET model and (iii) an analysis of the cost dynamics in the GET model in a further developed version of the model. Conclusions drawn within the scope of this thesis are that biomass is most cost-effectively used for heat production at low CO2 taxes, up to about 75 USD/tC, as shown in both the GET and the BEAP model. The sector in which biomass is most cost-effectively used at higher CO2 taxes depends on assumed possible energy carriers and technologies. If hydrogen and/or electricity derived from carbon free energy sources will not be available in the transportation sector at sufficiently low costs, biofuels become an important option if low or zero carbon emissions are to be achieved. Thus, the long run future for the cost-effective transportation fuel choice is still in the open. Regionalizing the GET 1.0 model will not affect the overall pattern of transportation fuel choices, i.e. that gasoline/diesel remain for some decades in the transportation sector until the carbon constraint becomes increasingly stringent and that solar based hydrogen dominates by the end of this century. In paper III, we find that the required carbon tax level where biofuels become cost-efficient, compared to fossil based fuels, is evasive. The tax level moves upwards with increasing carbon taxes, since this leads to an increasing biomass primary energy price in the model.
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| 42. |
- Grahn, Maria, 1963, et al.
(författare)
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Cost-effective use of biomass - A comparison between two model based studies
- 2006
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Ingår i: Book of Proceedings, RIO6, World Climate and Energy Event, Nov 17-18, 2006, Hotel Othon Palace, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. - 8590271048 ; , s. 149-153
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In two different energy economy models of the global energy system, the cost-effective use of biomass under a stringent carbon constraint has been analyzed. Gielen et al. conclude that it is cost-effective to use biofuels for transportation, whereas Azar et al. find that it is more cost-effective to use most of the biomass to generate heat and process heat, despite the fact that assumptions about the cost of biofuels production is rather similar in the models. In this study, we compare the two models with the purpose to find an explanation for these different results. It is found that both models suggest that biomass is most cost-effectively used for heat production for low carbon taxes (below 50-100 USD/tC, depending on the year in question). But for higher carbon taxes the cost effective choice reverses in the BEAP model, but not in the GET model. The reason for that is that GET includes hydrogen from carbon free energy sources as a technology option, whereas that option is not allowed in the BEAP model. In all other sectors, both models include carbon free options above biomass. Thus with higher carbon taxes, biomass will eventually become the cost-effective choice in the transportation sector in BEAP, regardless of its technology cost parameters.
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| 43. |
- Grahn, Maria, 1963, et al.
(författare)
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Cost-effective vehicle and fuel technology choices in a carbon constrained world: insights from global energy systems modelling
- 2010
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Ingår i: Electric and Hybrid Vehicles: Power Sources, Models, Sustainability, Infrastructure and the Market. Editor: Gianfranco Pistoia, Elsevier. ISBN: 798-0-444-53565-8. ; , s. 91-110
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- There is no abstract to this Elsevier book chapter. Here is instead our Discussion/Conclusion chapter: The goal of this work was to investigate the factors influencing the cost-effective vehicle and fuel technology choices in a carbon constrained world. We approached this goal by further developing an existing global energy systems model with the most important addition being a more detailed description of light-duty vehicle technologies (GET RC 6.1). The model is not intended to provide a forecast of the future, but it does provide insight into the system behavior. We have shown how CCS and CSP, technological options that have the potential to significantly reduce CO2 emissions associated with electricity and heat generation, may affect cost-effective fuel and vehicle technologies for transport. We find that the availability of CCS and CSP have substantial impacts on the fuel and technology options for passenger vehicles in meeting global CO2 emission target of 450 ppm at lowest system cost. Four key findings emerge.First, the introduction of CCS increases, in general, the use of coal (in the energy system) and ICEV (for transport). By providing relatively low-cost approaches to reducing CO2 emissions associated with electricity and heat generation, CCS reduces the “CO2 task” for the transportation sector, extends the time span of conventional petroleum-fueled ICEVs, and enables the use of liquid biofuels as well as GTL/CTL for transportation. Second, the introduction of CSP reduces the relative cost of electricity in relation to hydrogen and tends to increase the use of electricity for transport (at the expense of hydrogen).Third, the combined introduction of both CCS and CSP reduces the cost-effectiveness of shifting away from petroleum and ICEVs for a prolonged period of time (e.g., compare the results in Figure X.2D with those in Figure X.2A). Advanced energy technologies (CCS and CSP) reduce the cost of carbon mitigation (in the model) and therefore the incentives to shift to more advanced vehicle technologies. Fourth, the cost estimates for future vehicle technologies are very uncertain (for the time span considered) and therefore it is too early to express firm opinions about the future cost-effectiveness or optimality of different fuel and powertrain combinations. Sensitivity analyses in which these parameters were varied over reasonable ranges result in large differences in the cost-effective fuel and vehicle technology solutions. For instance, for low battery costs ($150/kWh) electrified powertrains dominate and for higher battery costs ($450/kWh) hydrogen-fueled vehicles dominate, regardless of CCS and CSP availability. Thus, our results summarized above should not be interpreted to mean that the electricity production options alone will have a decisive impact on the cost-effective fuel and vehicle options chosen.General results on cost-effective primary energy choices include observations that the use of coal increases substantially when CCS is available and that the use of solar energy (mainly solar-based hydrogen) increases when neither CCS nor CSP are available.Our findings have several policy and research implications. From a policy perspective, the findings highlight the need to recognize, and account for, the interaction between sectors (e.g., that illustrated by the impact of CCS availability in the present work) in policy development. From a research perspective, the findings illustrate the importance of pursuing the research and development of multiple fuel and vehicle technology pathways to achieve the desired result of affordable and sustainable personal mobility.
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| 44. |
- Grahn, Maria, 1963, et al.
(författare)
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Description of the global energy systems model GET-RC 6.1
- 2013
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- To provide a tool for decision makers to understand meeting global energy demand with global energy supply at a minimum cost and in a sustainable way, we have developed a global energy model (GET-RC 6.1) that includes a detailed description of passenger vehicle technology options. The model can be used to better understand the fuel and vehicle technology choices available for passenger vehicles and how these fit into the larger global energy system, where different energy sectors compete for the same limited primary energy sources. The original linear programming Global Energy Transition (GET) model is designed to meet exogenously given energy demand levels, subject to a CO2 constraint, at the lowest global energy system cost (all costs are in US$). The GET model is being developed and extended to address research questions related to the sustainable development of the global energy system. Several different versions of the GET model are available. The aim of this report is to describe the version used in collaboration between staff at Ford Motor Company and Chalmers University of Technology during the period 2008-2013. The model version used, GET-RC 6.1, was developed to address research questions related to light duty passenger vehicles, where R stands for regionalized and C for cars. The report contains a description of the settings that are defined in the model (i.e., the sets, parameters and variables), the equations used in the model, suggestion for how to implement the model step by step, and the mathematical description of the model.
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| 45. |
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| 46. |
- Grahn, Maria, 1963, et al.
(författare)
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Electro-methane: integration aspects and cost estimates
- 2018
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Ingår i: Proceedings of 5th International Conference on Renewable Energy Gas Technology.
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- One way to decrease the emissions of greenhouse gases from the transport sector is to use renewable fuels such as biogas either produced from anaerobic digestion of e.g. household waste or via gasification of woody biomass. Both processes give raise to excess biogenic CO2, which can be utilized to produce electro-methane. If renewable electricity is used to produce the hydrogen needed, to form electro-methane, the electro-methane is entirely renewable and fully blendable with biogas. The aim of this study is to calculate the production cost and assess if there are conditions under which electro-methane are cost-competitive to fossil natural gas or biogas. We find that there are circumstances when electro-methane can be produced at lower cost compared to the market price of natural gas as well as biogas, however not in the base case. In a future optimistic scenario, a production cost lower than the market price of natural gas can be found for electricity prices of 10-20 €/MWh combined with an investment cost of 100 €/kWel for the electrolyser, where the latter must be judged as an extremely optimistic assumption. Production costs equal or lower than the market price for biogas can in the future scenario be found for electricity prices between 10-30 €/MWh also for current electrolyser investment cost (500 €/kWel). We judge these circumstances realistic.
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| 47. |
- Grahn, Maria, 1963, et al.
(författare)
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Fuel and Vehicle Technology Choices for Passenger Vehicles in Achieving Stringent CO2 Targets: Connections between Transportation and Other Energy Sectors
- 2009
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Ingår i: Environmental Science and Technology. - 1382-3124. ; 43:9, s. 3365-3371
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The regionalized Global Energy Transition (GET-R 6.0) modelhas been modified to include a detailed description of light-duty vehicle options and used to investigate the potential impact of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and concentrating solar power (CSP) on cost-effective fuel/vehicle technologies in a carbon-constrained world. Total CO2 emissions were constrained to achieve stabilization at 400-550 ppm, by 2100, at lowest total system cost. The dominant fuel/vehicle technologies varied significantly depending on CO2 constraint, future cost of vehicle technologies, and availability of CCS and CSP. For many cases, no one technology dominated on a global scale. CCS provides relatively inexpensive low-CO2 electricity and heat which prolongs the use of traditional ICEVs. CSP displaces fossil fuel derived electricity, prolongs the use of traditional ICEVs, and promotes electrification of passenger vehicles. In all cases considered, CCS and CSP availability had a major impact on the lowest cost fuel/vehicle technologies, and alternative fuels are needed in response to expected dwindling oil and natural gas supply potential by the end of the century.
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| 48. |
- Grahn, Maria, 1963, et al.
(författare)
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Future alternative transportation fuels: A synthesis report from literature reviews on fuel properties, combustion engine performance and environmental effects
- 2015
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- According to EU, all transport related greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by 60% by 2050, compared to 1990. The ambitions of the Swedish Government is an energy system without net emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050 as well as a vehicle fleet that is independent of fossil fuels by 2030. The aim of this study is, through literature review, to reach a better understanding of the complexity around the transition from conventional oil‐based fuels to future alternative transportation fuels and how to identify fuel candidates with excellent combustion properties that also are better than conventional fuels from an environmental perspective. There are multiple challenges connected to a globally large‐scale expansion of biofuel production.These may, however, not necessarily apply to an increased biofuel production in Sweden. Advantages for Swedish biofuel production are the availability of forestry residues, a well‐established infrastructure for handling large volumes of biomass (from a long tradition of pulp and paper industry), a built out refueling infrastructure for E85 as well as Sweden being a sparsely populated country implying no immediate land scarcity. In a short term perspective reviewed literature shows that SI engines work even better on alcohols than on gasoline. Negative aspects are cold start performance, corrosion issues and increased volumetric fuel consumption. A mix of molecules with different ignition properties in the fuel is beneficial for cold starting issues. Ternary blends of gasoline, ethanol and methanol are such mix of molecules that would improve cold start issues. On the DICI engine side HVO as well as alcohol mixtures seem the most relevant ones to investigate further in the short term perspective. In a longer term perspective there is an opportunity to adapt both fuels and engines to each other. The emerging combustion concepts HCCI, RCCI and PPC demonstrate both higher efficiency and lower emissions than conventional SI or DICI. These concepts do also provide emission benefits when operated on alternative fuels, where fuels with combustion properties somewhere in‐between gasoline and diesel seems promising. For DICI engines POMDME and its derivatives are candidates that at least theoretically could be good for clean DICI operation. From a production cost perspective it is beneficial if the fuel either (1) is a small molecule that can be synthesized from syngas or similar processes or (2) a molecule that is similar to molecules in biomass or (3) already is a large scale produced chemical. From the systems studies perspective no single fuel is identified as winning alternative. Fuels that can be blended into conventional fuels are generally seen advantageous, as well as fuels that can be produced from waste streams or locally available bioenergy sources. The insecurity regarding which fuel has a future and which are facing major challenges need to be better understood. This implies that there is a need for interdisciplinary and iterative system and engine research.
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| 49. |
- Grahn, Maria, 1963, et al.
(författare)
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Möjligheter för förnybara drivmedel i Sverige till år 2030
- 2010
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Transportsektorns energianvändning domineras i dagsläget helt av oljebaseradedrivmedel, främst bensin och diesel. På grund av klimat- och energisäkerhetsfrågan stårdärför transportsektorn idag inför stora förändringar. Syftet med denna studie är attstudera möjligheterna för inhemskt producerade förnybara drivmedel (biodrivmedel,förnybar el och vätgas) till och med år 2030. Genom litteraturstudier och kontakter medaktörer inom området och med utgångspunkt i de framtidsvisioner för förnybaradrivmedel som finns utförs en systematisk strukturerad genomgång av utmaningar ochmöjligheter för olika drivmedelsalternativ. Målet är att kunna argumentera för vad somär realistiskt att tro om utvecklingen för den inhemska produktionen av förnybaradrivmedel till och med 2030 givet att styrmedel som stödjer dessa drivmedel finns samtatt bedöma i vilken utvecklingsfas olika förnybara drivmedel befinner sig.Resultatet från litteraturgenomgången av framtidsvisioner visar en splittrad bild avhur olika aktörer ser på framtiden för förnybara drivmedel. För 2020 identifierar vi ettspann på att 10–25% av den svenska vägsektorns energianvändning skulle kunna beståav biodrivmedel varav bidraget från andra generationen nästan är försumbart. För 2030är spannet 13–55% och bidraget från andra generationen anses osäkert. När det gällervätgas är däremot alla källor eniga om att andelen vätgasbilar i den svenska bilparken ärytterst marginellt både år 2020 och 2030. Däremot finns optimistiska visioner för EU påända upp till 16 miljoner vätgasbilar kring 2030. Visionerna kring elbilar ochladdhybrider visar på en mycket stor osäkerhet över hur snabbt fordonsflottan kankomma att elektrifieras. För 2020 visas en spridning på allt ifrån mycket få till 600 000elbilar inklusive laddhybrider i Sverige och för 2030 ser vi ett ännu vidare spann på alltifrån mycket få till 4 miljoner.Resultat från vår analys visar att spannet är ganska stort när det gäller hur stor deninhemska produktionen av förnybara drivmedel skulle kunna vara år 2020 och 2030.Spannet är ungefär 3–13 TWh/år för år 2020 och 10–22 TWh/år år 2030 och vi bedömerhela spannet som realistiskt. Beroende på hur stor energianvändning för transporter vijämför med blir det procentuella bidraget lite olika men oavsett beräkningsmetodöverstiger andelen inhemskt producerade förnybara drivmedel inte 15% år 2020respektive 25% år 2030 av vägtrafikens energianvändning.Trots att alternativa fordon (utöver elbilar) behövs i nästan alla våra scenarier om deinhemskt producerade drivmedlen ska användas inom Sverige ser vi inte bilparken somen begränsande faktor för den inhemska produktionen av förnybara drivmedel. Behoveti Europa lär dessutom vara så pass stort att det går att exportera allt eventuellt överskottav förnybara drivmedel om vi i Sverige producerar mer än den inhemskatransportsektorn kan ta emot. När det gäller introduktionen av elbilar ser vi inteladdningsinfrastrukturen som en begränsande faktor för introduktionen av elbilar i storskala. I dagsläget begränsas introduktionen mer av den höga investeringskostnaden(orsakad av batterikostnaden) vid köp av elbil.Hur stort det faktiska bidraget av förnybara drivmedel i Sverige i framtiden blirberor i stor utsträckning på priset på de förnybara drivmedlen (både inhemsktframställda och importerade) och tillhörande fordon jämfört med de fossila alternativen.Oavsett drivmedel är det viktigt med hög energieffektivitet både vad gälleranvändningen i fordonen och i drivmedelsproduktionen. En lägre energiefterfrågan itransportsektorn är en viktig faktor för att minska koldioxidutsläppen och innebärdessutom att bidraget från förnybara drivmedel procentuellt sett blir högre.
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| 50. |
- Grahn, Maria, 1963, et al.
(författare)
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Prospects for Domestic Biofuels for Transport in Sweden 2030 Based on Current Production and Future Plans
- 2015
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Ingår i: Advances in Bioenergy: The Sustainability Challenge. - Oxford, UK : John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. - 9781118957844 ; , s. 431-446
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In 2012, the use of renewable energy in the Swedish transport sector amounted to 12.6% when calculated according to the so-called Renewable Energy Directive (RED) calculation rules. This chapter illustrates the main biofuels production options currently discussed in Sweden. The mapping of existing and planned production capacity for biofuels for transport in Sweden shows that many different types of biofuels are produced currently or are planned to enter the market during the coming decade. There are plans for the production of cellulose-based ethanol, methanol, dimethyl ether (DME), methane, hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) as well as anaerobic digestion biogas (AD biogas). This is used as a basis for developing scenarios for potential biofuels production in Sweden until 2030. If the realization of the mapped biofuels plans is delayed, canceled and/or the continued implementation of additional biofuel capacity is slower than assumed, the potential domestic biofuels production in Sweden is reduced substantially. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved.
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