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- Angeler, David, et al.
(författare)
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Management applications of discontinuity theory
- 2016
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Ingår i: Journal of Applied Ecology. - : Wiley. - 0021-8901 .- 1365-2664. ; 53:3, s. 688-698
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- 1. Human impacts on the environment are multifaceted and can occur across distinct spatiotemporal scales. Ecological responses to environmental change are therefore difficult to predict, and entail large degrees of uncertainty. Such uncertainty requires robust tools for management to sustain ecosystem goods and services and maintain resilient ecosystems. 2. We propose an approach based on discontinuity theory that accounts for patterns and processes at distinct spatial and temporal scales, an inherent property of ecological systems. Discontinuity theory has not been applied in natural resource management and could therefore improve ecosystem management because it explicitly accounts for ecological complexity. 3. Synthesis and applications. We highlight the application of discontinuity approaches for meeting management goals. Specifically, discontinuity approaches have significant potential to measure and thus understand the resilience of ecosystems, to objectively identify critical scales of space and time in ecological systems at which human impact might be most severe, to provide warning indicators of regime change, to help predict and understand biological invasions and extinctions and to focus monitoring efforts. Discontinuity theory can complement current approaches, providing a broader paradigm for ecological management and conservation.
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| 5. |
- Garmestani, A., et al.
(författare)
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Panarchy : opportunities and challenges for ecosystem management
- 2020
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. - : Wiley. - 1540-9295 .- 1540-9309. ; 18:10, s. 576-583
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Addressing unexpected events and uncertainty represents one of the grand challenges of the Anthropocene, yet ecosystem management is constrained by existing policy and laws that were not formulated to deal with today's accelerating rates of environmental change. In many cases, managing for simple regulatory standards has resulted in adverse outcomes, necessitating innovative approaches for dealing with complex social–ecological problems. We highlight a project in the US Great Plains where panarchy – a conceptual framework that emerged from resilience – was implemented at project onset to address the continued inability to halt large‐scale transition from grass‐to‐tree dominance in central North America. We review how panarchy was applied, the initial outcomes and evidence for policy reform, and the opportunities and challenges for which it could serve as a useful model to contrast with traditional ecosystem management approaches.
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- Adger, W. Neil, et al.
(författare)
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Resilience implications of policy responses to climate change
- 2011
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Ingår i: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews. - : Wiley. - 1757-7780 .- 1757-7799. ; 2:5, s. 757-766
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This article examines whether some response strategies to climate variability and change have the potential to undermine long-term resilience of social-ecological systems. We define the parameters of a resilience approach, suggesting that resilience is characterized by the ability to absorb perturbations without changing overall system function, the ability to adapt within the resources of the system itself, and the ability to learn, innovate, and change. We evaluate nine current regional climate change policy responses and examine governance, sensitivity to feedbacks, and problem framing to evaluate impacts on characteristics of a resilient system. We find that some responses, such as the increase in harvest rates to deal with pine beetle infestations in Canada and expansion of biofuels globally, have the potential to undermine long-term resilience of resource systems. Other responses, such as decentralized water planning in Brazil and tropical storm disaster management in Caribbean islands, have the potential to increase long-term resilience. We argue that there are multiple sources of resilience in most systems and hence policy should identify such sources and strengthen capacities to adapt and learn.
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| 7. |
- Angeler, David, et al.
(författare)
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Quantifying the Adaptive Cycle
- 2015
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 10:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The adaptive cycle was proposed as a conceptual model to portray patterns of change in complex systems. Despite the model having potential for elucidating change across systems, it has been used mainly as a metaphor, describing system dynamics qualitatively. We use a quantitative approach for testing premises (reorganisation, conservatism, adaptation) in the adaptive cycle, using Baltic Sea phytoplankton communities as an example of such complex system dynamics. Phytoplankton organizes in recurring spring and summer blooms, a well-established paradigm in planktology and succession theory, with characteristic temporal trajectories during blooms that may be consistent with adaptive cycle phases. We used long-term (1994-2011) data and multivariate analysis of community structure to assess key components of the adaptive cycle. Specifically, we tested predictions about: reorganisation: spring and summer blooms comprise distinct community states; conservatism: community trajectories during individual adaptive cycles are conservative; and adaptation: phytoplankton species during blooms change in the long term. All predictions were supported by our analyses. Results suggest that traditional ecological paradigms such as phytoplankton successional models have potential for moving the adaptive cycle from a metaphor to a framework that can improve our understanding how complex systems organize and reorganize following collapse. Quantifying reorganization, conservatism and adaptation provides opportunities to cope with the intricacies and uncertainties associated with fast ecological change, driven by shifting system controls. Ultimately, combining traditional ecological paradigms with heuristics of complex system dynamics using quantitative approaches may help refine ecological theory and improve our understanding of the resilience of ecosystems.
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- Garmestani, Ahjond, et al.
(författare)
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Untapped capacity for resilience in environmental law
- 2019
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 116:40, s. 19899-19904
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Over the past several decades, environmental governance has made substantial progress in addressing environmental change, but emerging environmental problems require new innovations in law, policy, and governance. While expansive legal reform is unlikely to occur soon, there is untapped potential in existing laws to address environmental change, both by leveraging adaptive and transformative capacities within the law itself to enhance social-ecological resilience and by using those laws to allow social-ecological systems to adapt and transform. Legal and policy research to date has largely overlooked this potential, even though it offers a more expedient approach to addressing environmental change than waiting for full-scale environmental law reform. We highlight examples from the United States and the European Union of untapped capacity in existing laws for fostering resilience in social-ecological systems. We show that governments and other governance agents can make substantial advances in addressing environmental change in the short term-without major legal reform-by exploiting those untapped capacities, and we offer principles and strategies to guide such initiatives.
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| 9. |
- Pedersen, M, et al.
(författare)
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Low Rates of Radiographic Knee Osteoarthritis 5 Years After ACL Reconstruction or Rehabilitation Alone: The Delaware-Oslo ACL Cohort Study
- 2021
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Ingår i: Orthopaedic journal of sports medicine. - : SAGE Publications. - 2325-9671. ; 9:8, s. 23259671211027530-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Patients and clinicians often struggle to choose the optimal management strategy for posttraumatic knee osteoarthritis (OA) after an anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury. An evaluation of radiographic outcomes after a decision-making and treatment algorithm applicable in clinical practice can help to inform future recommendations and treatment choices. Purpose: To describe and compare 5-year radiographic outcomes and knee pain in individuals who had gone through our decision-making and treatment algorithm and chosen (1) early (<6 months) ACL reconstruction (ACLR) with pre- and postoperative rehabilitation, (2) delayed (>6 months) ACLR with pre- and postoperative rehabilitation, or (3) progressive rehabilitation alone. Study Design: Cohort study; Level of evidence, 2. Methods: We included 276 patients with unilateral ACL injury from a prospective cohort study. Patients chose management using a shared decision-making process and treatment algorithm, and 5-year postoperative radiographs of the index and contralateral knees were assessed using the Kellgren and Lawrence (K&L) classification and minimum joint space width measurements. We defined radiographic tibiofemoral OA as K&L grade ≥2 and knee pain as a Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score for Pain ≤72. To further explore early radiographic changes, we included alternative cutoffs for radiographic knee OA using K&L grade ≥2/osteophyte (definite osteophyte without joint space narrowing) and K&L grade ≥1. Results: At 5 years, 64% had undergone early ACLR; 11%, delayed ACLR; and 25%, progressive rehabilitation alone. Radiographic examination was attended by 187 patients (68%). Six percent of the cohort had radiographic tibiofemoral OA (K&L grade ≥2) in the index knee; 4%, in the contralateral knee. Using the alternative cutoffs at K&L grade ≥2/osteophyte and K&L grade ≥1, the corresponding numbers were 20% and 33% in the index knee and 18% and 29% in the contralateral knee. Six percent had a painful index knee. There were no statistically significant differences in any radiographic outcomes or knee pain among the 3 management groups. Conclusion: There were no statistically significant differences in any 5-year radiographic outcomes or knee pain among the 3 management groups. Very few of the patients who participated in our decision-making and treatment algorithm had knee OA or knee pain at 5 years.
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| 10. |
- Scown, Murray W., et al.
(författare)
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Towards a global sustainable development agenda built on social-ecological resilience
- 2023
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Ingår i: Global Sustainability. - 2059-4798. ; 6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Non-technical summary The United Nations' sustainable development goals (SDGs) articulate societal aspirations for people and our planet. Many scientists have criticised the SDGs and some have suggested that a better understanding of the complex interactions between society and the environment should underpin the next global development agenda. We further this discussion through the theory of social-ecological resilience, which emphasises the ability of systems to absorb, adapt, and transform in the face of change. We determine the strengths of the current SDGs, which should form a basis for the next agenda, and identify key gaps that should be filled. Technical summary The United Nations' sustainable development goals (SDGs) are past their halfway point and the next global development agenda will soon need to be developed. While laudable, the SDGs have received strong criticism from many, and scholars have proposed that adopting complex adaptive or social-ecological system approaches would increase the effectiveness of the agenda. Here we dive deeper into these discussions to explore how the theory of social-ecological resilience could serve as a strong foundation for the next global sustainable development agenda. We identify the strengths and weaknesses of the current SDGs by determining which of the 169 targets address each of 43 factors affecting social-ecological resilience that we have compiled from the literature. The SDGs with the strongest connections to social-ecological resilience are the environment-focus goals (SDGs 2, 6, 13, 14, 15), which are also the goals consistently under-prioritised in the implementation of the current agenda. In terms of the 43 factors affecting social-ecological resilience, the SDG strengths lie in their communication, inclusive decision making, financial support, regulatory incentives, economic diversity, and transparency in governance and law. On the contrary, ecological factors of resilience are seriously lacking in the SDGs, particularly with regards to scale, cross-scale interactions, and non-stationarity. Social media summary The post-2030 agenda should build on strengths of SDGs 2, 6, 13, 14, 15, and fill gaps in scale, variability, and feedbacks.
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| 11. |
- Steneck, R. S., et al.
(författare)
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Creation of a Gilded Trap by the High Economic Value of the Maine Lobster Fishery
- 2011
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Ingår i: Conservation Biology. - : Wiley. - 0888-8892 .- 1523-1739. ; 25:5, s. 904-912
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Unsustainable fishing simplifies food chains and, as with aquaculture, can result in reliance on a few economically valuable species. This lack of diversity may increase risks of ecological and economic disruptions. Centuries of intense fishing have extirpated most apex predators in the Gulf of Maine (United States and Canada), effectively creating an American lobster (Homarus americanus) monoculture. Over the past 20 years, the economic diversity of marine resources harvested in Maine has declined by almost 70%. Today, over 80% of the value of Maine's fish and seafood landings is from highly abundant lobsters. Inflation-corrected income from lobsters in Maine has steadily increased by nearly 400% since 1985. Fisheries managers, policy makers, and fishers view this as a success. However, such lucrative monocultures increase the social and ecological consequences of future declines in lobsters. In southern New England, disease and stresses related to increases in ocean temperature resulted in more than a 70% decline in lobster abundance, prompting managers to propose closing that fishery. A similar collapse in Maine could fundamentally disrupt the social and economic foundation of its coast. We suggest the current success of Maine's lobster fishery is a gilded trap. Gilded traps are a type of social trap in which collective actions resulting from economically attractive opportunities outweigh concerns over associated social and ecological risks or consequences. Large financial gain creates a strong reinforcing feedback that deepens the trap. Avoiding or escaping gilded traps requires managing for increased biological and economic diversity. This is difficult to do prior to a crisis while financial incentives for maintaining the status quo are large. The long-term challenge is to shift fisheries management away from single species toward integrated social-ecological approaches that diversify local ecosystems, societies, and economies.
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| 12. |
- Whitmer, R. A., et al.
(författare)
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Central obesity and increased risk of dementia more than three decades later
- 2008
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Ingår i: Neurology. - : Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health). - 0028-3878 .- 1526-632X. ; 71:14, s. 1057-1064
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Numerous reports show that a centralized distribution of adiposity is a more dangerous risk factor for cardiovascular disease and diabetes than total body obesity. No studies have evaluated whether the same pattern exists with dementia. The objective was to evaluate the association between midlife central obesity and risk of dementia three decades later. Methods: A longitudinal analysis was conducted of 6,583 members of Kaiser Permanente of Northern California who had their sagittal abdominal diameter (SAD) measured in 1964 to 1973. Diagnoses of dementia were from medical records an average of 36 years later, January 1, 1994, to June 16, 2006. Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for age, sex, race, education, marital status, diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, stroke, heart disease, and medical utilization were conducted. Results: A total of 1,049 participants (15.9%) were diagnosed with dementia. Compared with those in the lowest quintile of SAD, those in the highest had nearly a threefold increased risk of dementia (hazard ratio, 2.72; 95% CI, 2.33–3.33), and this was only mildly attenuated after adding body mass index (BMI) to the model (hazard ratio, 1.92; 95% CI, 1.58–2.35). Those with high SAD (>25 cm) and normal BMI had an increased risk (hazard ratio, 1.89; 95% CI, 0.98–3.81) vs those with low SAD (<25 cm) and normal BMI (18.5–24.9 kg/m2), whereas those both obese (BMI >30 kg/m2) and with high SAD had the highest risk of dementia (HR, 3.60; 95% CI, 2.85–4.55). Conclusions: Central obesity in midlife increases risk of dementia independent of diabetes and cardiovascular comorbidities. Fifty percent of adults have central obesity; therefore, mechanisms linking central obesity to dementia need to be unveiled.
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