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- Kanai, M, et al.
(författare)
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- 2023
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swepub:Mat__t
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| 3. |
- Sherratt, K., et al.
(författare)
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Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
- 2023
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
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| 5. |
- Geenes, V., et al.
(författare)
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The Reversed Feto-Maternal Bile Acid Gradient in Intrahepatic Cholestasis of Pregnancy Is Corrected by Ursodeoxycholic Acid
- 2014
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Ingår i: Plos One. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 9:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy (ICP) is a pregnancy-specific liver disorder associated with an increased risk of adverse fetal outcomes. It is characterised by raised maternal serum bile acids, which are believed to cause the adverse outcomes. ICP is commonly treated with ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA). This study aimed to determine the fetal and maternal bile acid profiles in normal and ICP pregnancies, and to examine the effect of UDCA treatment. Matched maternal and umbilical cord serum samples were collected from untreated ICP (n = 18), UDCA-treated ICP (n = 46) and uncomplicated pregnancy (n = 15) cases at the time of delivery. Nineteen individual bile acids were measured using HPLC-MS/MS. Maternal and fetal serum bile acids are significantly raised in ICP compared with normal pregnancy (p = <0.0001 and <0.05, respectively), predominantly due to increased levels of conjugated cholic and chenodeoxycholic acid. There are no differences between the umbilical cord artery and cord vein levels of the major bile acid species. The feto-maternal gradient of bile acids is reversed in ICP. Treatment with UDCA significantly reduces serum bile acids in the maternal compartment (p = <0.0001), thereby reducing the feto-maternal transplacental gradient. UDCA-treatment does not cause a clinically important increase in lithocholic acid (LCA) concentrations. ICP is associated with significant quantitative and qualitative changes in the maternal and fetal bile acid pools. Treatment with UDCA reduces the level of bile acids in both compartments and reverses the qualitative changes. We have not found evidence to support the suggestion that UDCA treatment increases fetal LCA concentrations to deleterious levels.
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| 9. |
- Giorgianni, Flavio, et al.
(författare)
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Melting of magnetic order in NaOsO3 by femtosecond laser pulses
- 2022
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Ingår i: Physical Review B. - : American Physical Society. - 2469-9950 .- 2469-9969. ; 105:15
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- NaOsO3 has recently attracted significant attention for the strong coupling between its electronic band structure and magnetic ordering. Here, we used time-resolved magnetic x-ray diffraction to determine the timescale of the photoinduced antiferromagnetic dynamics in NaOsO3. Our measurements are consistent with a sub-100 fs melting of the antiferromagnetic long-range order that occurs significantly faster than the lattice dynamics as monitored by the transient change in intensity of selected Bragg structural reflections, which instead show a decrease of intensity on a timescale of several ps.
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| 11. |
- Gurung, Jyoti M., et al.
(författare)
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Heterologous complementation studies with the YscX and YscY protein families reveals a specificity for Yersinia pseudotuberculosis type III secretion
- 2018
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Cellular and Infection Microbiology. - : Frontiers Research Foundation. - 2235-2988. ; 8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Type III secretion systems harbored by several Gram-negative bacteria are often used to deliver host-modulating effectors into infected eukaryotic cells. About 20 core proteins are needed for assembly of a secretion apparatus. Several of these proteins are genetically and functionally conserved in type III secretion systems of bacteria associated with invertebrate or vertebrate hosts. In the Ysc family of type III secretion systems are two poorly characterized protein families, the YscX family and the YscY family. In the plasmid-encoded Ysc-Yop type III secretion system of human pathogenic Yersinia species, YscX is a secreted substrate while YscY is its non-secreted cognate chaperone. Critically, neither an yscX nor yscY null mutant of Yersinia is capable of type III secretion. In this study, we show that the genetic equivalents of these proteins produced as components of other type III secretion systems of Pseudomonas aeruginosa (PscX and PscY), Aeromonas species (AscX and AscY), Vibrio species (VscX and VscY), and Photorhabdus luminescens (SctX and SctY) all possess an ability to interact with its native cognate partner and also establish cross-reciprocal binding to non-cognate partners as judged by a yeast two-hybrid assay. Moreover, a yeast three-hybrid assay also revealed that these heterodimeric complexes could maintain an interaction with YscV family members, a core membrane component of all type III secretion systems. Despite maintaining these molecular interactions, only expression of the native yscX in the near full-length yscX deletion and native yscY in the near full-length yscY deletion were able to complement for their general substrate secretion defects. Hence, YscX and YscY must have co-evolved to confer an important function specifically critical for Yersinia type III secretion.
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| 12. |
- KC, Ashish, 1982, et al.
(författare)
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Effect of the COVID-19 pandemic response on intrapartum care, stillbirth, and neonatal mortality outcomes in Nepal: a prospective observational study.
- 2020
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Ingår i: The Lancet. Global health. - 2214-109X. ; 8:10, s. e1273-e1281
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The COVID-19 pandemic response is affecting maternal and neonatal health services all over the world. We aimed to assess the number of institutional births, their outcomes (institutional stillbirth and neonatal mortality rate), and quality of intrapartum care before and during the national COVID-19 lockdown in Nepal.In this prospective observational study, we collected participant-level data for pregnant women enrolled in the SUSTAIN and REFINE studies between Jan 1 and May 30, 2020, from nine hospitals in Nepal. This period included 12·5 weeks before the national lockdown and 9·5 weeks during the lockdown. Women were eligible for inclusion if they had a gestational age of 22 weeks or more, a fetal heart sound at time of admission, and consented to inclusion. Women who had multiple births and their babies were excluded. We collected information on demographic and obstetric characteristics via extraction from case notes and health worker performance via direct observation by independent clinical researchers. We used regression analyses to assess changes in the number of institutional births, quality of care, and mortality before lockdown versus during lockdown.Of 22 907 eligible women, 21 763 women were enrolled and 20 354 gave birth, and health worker performance was recorded for 10 543 births. From the beginning to the end of the study period, the mean weekly number of births decreased from 1261·1 births (SE 66·1) before lockdown to 651·4 births (49·9) during lockdown-a reduction of 52·4%. The institutional stillbirth rate increased from 14 per 1000 total births before lockdown to 21 per 1000 total births during lockdown (p=0·0002), and institutional neonatal mortality increased from 13 per 1000 livebirths to 40 per 1000 livebirths (p=0·0022). In terms of quality of care, intrapartum fetal heart rate monitoring decreased by 13·4% (-15·4 to -11·3; p<0·0001), and breastfeeding within 1 h of birth decreased by 3·5% (-4·6 to -2·6; p=0·0032). The immediate newborn care practice of placing the baby skin-to-skin with their mother increased by 13·2% (12·1 to 14·5; p<0·0001), and health workers' hand hygiene practices during childbirth increased by 12·9% (11·8 to 13·9) during lockdown (p<0·0001).Institutional childbirth reduced by more than half during lockdown, with increases in institutional stillbirth rate and neonatal mortality, and decreases in quality of care. Some behaviours improved, notably hand hygiene and keeping the baby skin-to-skin with their mother. An urgent need exists to protect access to high quality intrapartum care and prevent excess deaths for the most vulnerable health system users during this pandemic period.Grand Challenges Canada.
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| 13. |
- Teufel, Felix, et al.
(författare)
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Analysis of Attained Height and Diabetes Among 554,122 Adults Across 25 Low- and Middle-Income Countries
- 2020
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Ingår i: Diabetes Care. - : American Diabetes Association. - 1935-5548 .- 0149-5992. ; 43:10, s. 2403-2410
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: The prevalence of type 2 diabetes is rising rapidly in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), but the factors driving this rapid increase are not well understood. Adult height, in particular shorter height, has been suggested to contribute to the pathophysiology and epidemiology of diabetes and may inform how adverse environmental conditions in early life affect diabetes risk. We therefore systematically analyzed the association of adult height and diabetes across LMICs, where such conditions are prominent.RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We pooled individual-level data from nationally representative surveys in LMICs that included anthropometric measurements and diabetes biomarkers. We calculated odds ratios (ORs) for the relationship between attained adult height and diabetes using multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression models. We estimated ORs for the pooled sample, major world regions, and individual countries, in addition to stratifying all analyses by sex. We examined heterogeneity by individual-level characteristics.RESULTS: Our sample included 554,122 individuals across 25 population-based surveys. Average height was 161.7 cm (95% CI 161.2-162.3), and the crude prevalence of diabetes was 7.5% (95% CI 6.9-8.2). We found no relationship between adult height and diabetes across LMICs globally or in most world regions. When stratifying our sample by country and sex, we found an inverse association between adult height and diabetes in 5% of analyses (2 out of 50). Results were robust to alternative model specifications.CONCLUSIONS: Adult height is not associated with diabetes across LMICs. Environmental factors in early life reflected in attained adult height likely differ from those predisposing individuals for diabetes.
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