| 1. |
- Freedman, Ben, et al.
(författare)
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Screening for Atrial Fibrillation A Report of the AF-SCREEN International Collaboration
- 2017
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Ingår i: Circulation. - : LIPPINCOTT WILLIAMS & WILKINS. - 0009-7322 .- 1524-4539. ; 135:19, s. 1851-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Approximately 10% of ischemic strokes are associated with atrial fibrillation (AF) first diagnosed at the time of stroke. Detecting asymptomatic AF would provide an opportunity to prevent these strokes by instituting appropriate anticoagulation. The AF-SCREEN international collaboration was formed in September 2015 to promote discussion and research about AF screening as a strategy to reduce stroke and death and to provide advocacy for implementation of country-specific AF screening programs. During 2016, 60 expert members of AF-SCREEN, including physicians, nurses, allied health professionals, health economists, and patient advocates, were invited to prepare sections of a draft document. In August 2016, 51 members met in Rome to discuss the draft document and consider the key points arising from it using a Delphi process. These key points emphasize that screen-detected AF found at a single timepoint or by intermittent ECG recordings over 2 weeks is not a benign condition and, with additional stroke factors, carries sufficient risk of stroke to justify consideration of anticoagulation. With regard to the methods of mass screening, handheld ECG devices have the advantage of providing a verifiable ECG trace that guidelines require for AF diagnosis and would therefore be preferred as screening tools. Certain patient groups, such as those with recent embolic stroke of uncertain source (ESUS), require more intensive monitoring for AF. Settings for screening include various venues in both the community and the clinic, but they must be linked to a pathway for appropriate diagnosis and management for screening to be effective. It is recognized that health resources vary widely between countries and health systems, so the setting for AF screening should be both country-and health system-specific. Based on current knowledge, this white paper provides a strong case for AF screening now while recognizing that large randomized outcomes studies would be helpful to strengthen the evidence base.
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| 2. |
- Kuligowski, E., et al.
(författare)
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Evacuation modelling for bushfire : the WUI-NITY simulation platform
- 2022
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Ingår i: Australian Journal of Emergency Management. - 1324-1540. ; 37:4, s. 40-43
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The number of people who live in bushfire-prone areas around the world is growing. In Australia, in the states of Victoria and New South Wales, over 1.5 million people live in areas rated as high to extreme bushfire risk in (SGS Economics and Planning 2019). As effects of climate change increase the size and severity of bushfires, and a greater number of people move into these at-risk areas, there is a growing imperative to understand the likely evacuation outcomes of bushfireprone communities under various fire scenarios. This paper introduces a freely available simulation platform called WUI-NITY that can be used by evacuation planners and decisionmakers to forecast evacuation behaviour within affected areas, and in turn, better prepare for and respond to future bushfire events.
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| 3. |
- Ronchi, E., et al.
(författare)
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The verification of wildland–urban interface fire evacuation models
- 2023
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Ingår i: Natural Hazards. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0921-030X .- 1573-0840. ; 117:2, s. 1493-1519
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper introduces a protocol for the verification of multi-physics wildfire evacuation models, including a set of tests used to ensure that the conceptual modelling representation of each modelling layer is accurately implemented, as well as the interactions between different modelling layers and sub-models (wildfire spread, pedestrian movement, traffic evacuation, and trigger buffers). This work presents a total of 24 verification tests, including (1) 4 tests related to pedestrians, (2) 15 tests for traffic evacuation, (3) 5 tests concerning the interaction between different modelling layers, along with 5 tests for wildfire spread and trigger buffers. The evacuation tests are organized in accordance with different core components related to evacuation modelling, namely Population, Pre-evacuation, Movement, Route/destination selection, Flow constraints, Events, Wildfire spread and Trigger buffers. A reporting template has also been developed to facilitate the application of the verification testing protocol. An example application of the testing protocol has been performed using an open wildfire evacuation modelling platform called WUI-NITY and its associated trigger buffer model k-PERIL. The verification testing protocol is deemed to improve the credibility of wildfire evacuation model results and stimulate future modelling efforts in this domain.
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| 4. |
- Cuesta, Arturo, et al.
(författare)
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School egress data: comparing the configuration and validation of five egress modelling tools
- 2017
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Ingår i: Fire and Materials. - : Wiley. - 1099-1018 .- 0308-0501. ; 41:5, s. 535-554
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Data were collected between 2011 and 2014 from five evacuations involving the same school buildings located in Spain. Children from 6 to 16 years of age were observed during the evacuation exercises. Background information was collected on key factors deemed to influence evacuation performance: a description of the geometry, the population involved, the procedures employed and the organization of the drills conducted. Using live observations and video footage of these drills, evacuation data were collected, focusing on the pre-evacuation times, the routes employed, the travel speeds adopted and thearrival times. These data informed a range of a posteriori simulations, conducted by using four computer models (buildingEXODUS, MassMotion, Pathfinder and STEPS) and the Society of Fire Protection Engineering hydraulic model (i.e. Society of Fire Protection Engineering hand calculations). Comparisons were drawn between the models’ output and against the observed outcome for one of the trials to determine the accuracy of the model predictions given that they were configured by using the initial conditions for a specific evacuation. The purpose of this work is to (1) provide insight into the configuration of these models for equivalent scenarios, (2) examine any variation in the simulated conditions given equivalent initial conditions, and (3) provide suggestions on how to perform validation studies for multiple evacuation models.
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| 5. |
- Gwynne, S. M. V., et al.
(författare)
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Enhancing egress drills : Preparation and assessment of evacuee performance
- 2019
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Ingår i: Fire and Materials. - : Wiley. - 0308-0501 .- 1099-1018. ; 43:6, s. 613-631
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This article explores how egress drills-specifically those related to fire incidents-are currently used, their impact on safety levels, and the insights gained from them. It is suggested that neither the merits of egress drills are well understood, nor the impact on egress performance well characterized. In addition, the manner in which they are conducted varies both between and within regulatory jurisdictions. By investigating their strengths and limitations, this article suggests opportunities for their enhancement possibly through the use of other egress models to support and expand upon the benefits provided. It is by no means suggested that drills are not important to evacuation safety-only that their inconsistent use and the interpretation of the results produced may mean we (as researchers, practitioners, regulators, and stakeholders) are not getting the maximum benefit out of this important tool.
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| 6. |
- Ronchi, Enrico, et al.
(författare)
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Modelling the Impact of Emergency Exit Signs in Tunnels
- 2012
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Ingår i: Fire Technology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0015-2684 .- 1572-8099. ; 48:4, s. 961-988
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper addresses the problem of representing the impact of different emergency exit signs during the evacuation of a tunnel when using two different evacuation models (i.e. FDS+Evac and buildingEXODUS). Both models allow the user to represent the impact of smoke upon the evacuee. The models are calibrated (1) considering the nature of the models themselves, (2) by deriving assumptions from previous experiments and literature, (3) using new data produced from experimental work performed by Lund University. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the activities required of the user to configure sophisticated egress tools given the scenario examined and the alternatives available in representing evacuee behaviour. Model results show that the differences in terms of emergency exit usage are affected by the degree of modelling sophistication employed and user expertise. It is demonstrated that evacuee performance may be misrepresented through indiscriminate use of default settings. Results are instead consistent between the models when their input is calibrated implicitly (given the availability of experimental data) or explicitly (employing the exit choice sub-algorithms embedded in the model). The scenarios examined are deliberately designed to be a superset of experimental trials currently being conducted about exit choice in a tunnel. The scope is to allow a blind model comparison to take place once the experiments are completed. This will be reported in a future article.
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