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- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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- Varela, AR, et al.
(författare)
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Status and Trends of Physical Activity Surveillance, Policy, and Research in 164 Countries: Findings From the Global Observatory for Physical Activity-GoPA! 2015 and 2020 Surveys
- 2023
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Ingår i: Journal of physical activity & health. - : Human Kinetics. - 1543-5474 .- 1543-3080. ; 20:2, s. 112-128
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Physical activity (PA) surveillance, policy, and research efforts need to be periodically appraised to gain insight into national and global capacities for PA promotion. The aim of this paper was to assess the status and trends in PA surveillance, policy, and research in 164 countries. Methods: We used data from the Global Observatory for Physical Activity (GoPA!) 2015 and 2020 surveys. Comprehensive searches were performed for each country to determine the level of development of their PA surveillance, policy, and research, and the findings were verified by the GoPA! Country Contacts. Trends were analyzed based on the data available for both survey years. Results: The global 5-year progress in all 3 indicators was modest, with most countries either improving or staying at the same level. PA surveillance, policy, and research improved or remained at a high level in 48.1%, 40.6%, and 42.1% of the countries, respectively. PA surveillance, policy, and research scores decreased or remained at a low level in 8.3%, 15.8%, and 28.6% of the countries, respectively. The highest capacity for PA promotion was found in Europe, the lowest in Africa and low- and lower-middle-income countries. Although a large percentage of the world’s population benefit from at least some PA policy, surveillance, and research efforts in their countries, 49.6 million people are without PA surveillance, 629.4 million people are without PA policy, and 108.7 million live in countries without any PA research output. A total of 6.3 billion people or 88.2% of the world’s population live in countries where PA promotion capacity should be significantly improved. Conclusion: Despite PA is essential for health, there are large inequalities between countries and world regions in their capacity to promote PA. Coordinated efforts are needed to reduce the inequalities and improve the global capacity for PA promotion.
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| 8. |
- Menkveld, Albert J., et al.
(författare)
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Nonstandard Errors
- 2024
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Ingår i: JOURNAL OF FINANCE. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 0022-1082 .- 1540-6261. ; 79:3, s. 2339-2390
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty-nonstandard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by letting 164 teams test the same hypotheses on the same data. NSEs turn out to be sizable, but smaller for more reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer-review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is underestimated by participants.
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- Freidle, M., et al.
(författare)
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Behavioural and neuroplastic effects of a double-blind randomised controlled balance exercise trial in people with Parkinson's disease
- 2022
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Ingår i: Npj Parkinsons Disease. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2373-8057. ; 8:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Balance dysfunction is a disabling symptom in people with Parkinson's disease (PD). Evidence suggests that exercise can improve balance performance and induce neuroplastic effects. We hypothesised that a 10-week balance intervention (HiBalance) would improve balance, other motor and cognitive symptoms, and alter task-evoked brain activity in people with PD. We performed a double-blind randomised controlled trial (RCT) where 95 participants with PD were randomised to either HiBalance (n = 48) or a control group (n = 47). We found no significant group by time effect on balance performance (b = 0.4 95% CI [- 1, 1.9], p = 0.57) or on our secondary outcomes, including the measures of task-evoked brain activity. The findings of this well-powered, double-blind RCT contrast previous studies of the HiBalance programme but are congruent with other double-blind RCTs of physical exercise in PD. The divergent results raise important questions on how to optimise physical exercise interventions for people with PD.
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- Hagstromer, M, et al.
(författare)
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Comparison of a subjective and an objective measure of physical activity in a population sample
- 2010
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Ingår i: Journal of physical activity & health. - : Human Kinetics. - 1543-3080 .- 1543-5474. ; 7:4, s. 541-550
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The aim of this study was to compare physical activity components in the long, self-administrated version of IPAQ with an accelerometer in a population sample.Methods:In total 980 subjects (18-65 years) wore an accelerometer (Actigraph) for 7 consecutive days and thereafter filled in the IPAQ. Measures of total physical activity, time spent in moderate and in vigorous activity as well as time spent sitting as assessed by the IPAQ and the Actigraph were compared.Results:The results showed significant low to moderate correlations (Rs = 0.07−0.36) between the 2 instruments and significantly (P < .001) higher values for sitting and vigorous intensity physical activity from the IPAQ compared with the Actigraph. The higher the values reported by the IPAQ the bigger differences were seen between the instruments. Comparison between the tertiles of total physical activity by the 2 instruments showed significant overall association with consistent agreement in the low and the high tertiles.Conclusion:The long form of IPAQ is a valid measure of physical activity in population research. However, the IPAQ likely overestimates actual physical activity as shown by its limited ability to classify adults into low and high categories of physical activity based on accelerometer data.
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- Kuster, RP, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring Sedentary Behavior by Means of Muscular Activity and Accelerometry
- 2018
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Ingår i: Sensors (Basel, Switzerland). - : MDPI AG. - 1424-8220. ; 18:11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Sedentary Behavior (SB) is among the most frequent human behaviors and is associated with a plethora of serious chronic lifestyle diseases as well as premature death. Office workers in particular are at an increased risk due to their extensive amounts of occupational SB. However, we still lack an objective method to measure SB consistent with its definition. We have therefore developed a new measurement system based on muscular activity and accelerometry. The primary aim of the present study was to calibrate the new-developed 8-CH-EMG+ for measuring occupational SB against an indirect calorimeter during typical desk-based office work activities. In total, 25 volunteers performed nine office tasks at three typical workplaces. Minute-by-minute posture and activity classification was performed using subsequent decision trees developed with artificial intelligence data processing techniques. The 8-CH-EMG+ successfully identified all sitting episodes (AUC = 1.0). Furthermore, depending on the number of electromyography channels included, the device has a sensitivity of 83–98% and 74–98% to detect SB and active sitting (AUC = 0.85–0.91). The 8-CH-EMG+ advances the field of objective SB measurements by combining accelerometry with muscular activity. Future field studies should consider the use of EMG sensors to record SB in line with its definition.
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| 44. |
- Kwak, L, et al.
(författare)
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Can the IPAQ-long be used to assess occupational physical activity?
- 2012
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Ingår i: Journal of physical activity & health. - : Human Kinetics. - 1543-5474 .- 1543-3080. ; 9:8, s. 1130-1137
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To be able to draw any conclusions regarding the health effects of occupational physical activity (OPA), more information is needed regarding valid measures to assess OPA. Aims were to compare OPA as assessed with the International Physical Activity Questionnaire long version (IPAQ-L) with OPA assessed with an accelerometer and to assess the contribution of OPA to total PA.Methods:Working adults (n = 441; mean age = 49.4 yrs; 44% males) wore an accelerometer for 7 days in free-living situations and completed the IPAQ-L. Comparisons were made between IPAQ-L-work and accelerometer data limited to working time (Moderate and Vigorous PA (accelerometer-MVPA-work) and average intensity). Subgroup analyses were performed.Results:Spearman correlation was r = .46 (P < .01) between IPAQ-L-work and accelerometer-MVPA-work. Correlations ranged from r = .27 to r = .55 in respectively obese and overweight subjects. The contribution of IPAQ-L-work to IPAQ-total was 24.7%.Conclusions:The IPAQ-L work domain is a moderately good measure of time spent on MVPA at work and can be used to assess the contribution of OPA to total PA. This study provides valuable information regarding the use of the IPAQ-L in assessing work domain specific PA, and underscores the importance of assessing OPA, as it can contribute for a substantial part to total PA.
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- Milton, K, et al.
(författare)
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Eight Investments That Work for Physical Activity
- 2021
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Ingår i: Journal of physical activity & health. - : Human Kinetics. - 1543-5474 .- 1543-3080. ; 18:6, s. 625-630
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: The International Society for Physical Activity and Health (ISPAH) is a leading global organization working to advance research, policy, and practice to promote physical activity. Given the expanding evidence base on interventions to promote physical activity, it was timely to review and update a major ISPAH advocacy document—Investments that Work for Physical Activity (2011). Methods: Eight investment areas were agreed upon through consensus. Literature reviews were conducted to identify key evidence relevant to policymakers in each sector or setting. Results: The 8 investment areas were as follows: whole-of-school programs; active transport; active urban design; health care; public education; sport and recreation; workplaces; and community-wide programs. Evidence suggests that the largest population health benefit will be achieved by combining these investments and implementing a systems-based approach. Conclusions: Establishing consensus on ‘what works’ to change physical activity behavior is a cornerstone of successful advocacy, as is having appropriate resources to communicate key messages to a wide range of stakeholders. ISPAH has created a range of resources related to the new investments described in this paper. These resources are available in the ‘advocacy toolkit’ on the ISPAH website (www.ispah.org/resources).
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