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- Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M., et al.
(författare)
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Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios
- 2018
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Ingår i: Climatic Change. - : Springer. - 0165-0009 .- 1573-1480. ; 150:3-4, s. 391-402
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to “hold warming well below 2 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C”. The 1.5 °C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature targets, compared to more extreme warming scenarios. We performed a multi-region analysis in 451 locations in 23 countries with different climate zones, and evaluated changes in heat and cold-related mortality under scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement targets (1.5 and 2 °C) and more extreme GMT increases (3 and 4 °C), and under the assumption of no changes in demographic distribution and vulnerability. Our results suggest that limiting warming below 2 °C could prevent large increases in temperature-related mortality in most regions worldwide. The comparison between 1.5 and 2 °C is more complex and characterized by higher uncertainty, with geographical differences that indicate potential benefits limited to areas located in warmer climates, where direct climate change impacts will be more discernible.
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| 4. |
- Part, C, et al.
(författare)
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How do high ambient temperatures affect infant feeding practices? A prospective cohort study of postpartum women in Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso
- 2022
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Ingår i: BMJ open. - : BMJ. - 2044-6055. ; 12:10, s. e061297-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To examine the effects of high ambient temperature on infant feeding practices and childcare.DesignSecondary analysis of quantitative data from a prospective cohort study.SettingCommunity-based interviews in the commune of Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso. Exclusive breastfeeding is not widely practised in Burkina Faso.Participants866 women (1:1 urban:rural) were interviewed over 12 months. Participants were interviewed at three time points: cohort entry (when between 20 weeks’ gestation and 22 weeks’ postpartum), three and nine months thereafter. Retention at nine-month follow-up was 90%. Our secondary analysis focused on postpartum women (n=857).ExposureDaily mean temperature (°C) measured at one weather station in Bobo-Dioulasso. Meteorological data were obtained from publicly available archives (TuTiempo.net).Primary outcome measuresSelf-reported time spent breastfeeding (minutes/day), exclusive breastfeeding of infants under 6 months (no fluids other than breast milk provided in past 24 hours), supplementary feeding of infants aged 6–12 months (any fluid other than breast milk provided in past 24 hours), time spent caring for children (minutes/day).ResultsThe population experienced year-round high temperatures (daily mean temperature range=22.6°C–33.7°C). Breastfeeding decreased by 2.3 minutes/day (95% CI -4.6 to 0.04, p=0.05), and childcare increased by 0.6 minutes/day (0.06 to 1.2, p=0.03), per 1°C increase in same-day mean temperature. Temperature interacted with infant age to affect breastfeeding duration (p=0.02), with a stronger (negative) association between temperature and breastfeeding as infants aged (0–57 weeks). Odds of exclusive breastfeeding very young infants (0–3 months) tended to decrease as temperature increased (OR=0.88, 0.75 to 1.02, p=0.09). There was no association between temperature and exclusive breastfeeding at 3–6 months or supplementary feeding (6–12 months).ConclusionsWomen spent considerably less time breastfeeding (~25 minutes/day) during the hottest, compared with coolest, times of the year. Climate change adaptation plans for health should include advice to breastfeeding mothers during periods of high temperature.
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| 6. |
- Barnett, A. G., et al.
(författare)
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Cold and heat waves in the United States
- 2012
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Ingår i: Environmental Research. - : Elsevier. - 0013-9351 .- 1096-0953. ; 112, s. 218-224
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Extreme cold and heat waves, characterized by a number of cold or hot days in succession, place a strain on people's cardiovascular and respiratory systems. The increase in deaths due to these waves may be greater than that predicted by extreme temperatures alone. We examined cold and heat waves in 99 US cities for 14 years (1987-2000) and investigated how the risk of death depended on the temperature threshold used to define a wave, and a wave's timing, duration and intensity. We defined cold and heat waves using temperatures above and below cold and heat thresholds for two or more days. We tried five cold thresholds using the first to fifth percentiles of temperature, and five heat thresholds using the 95-99 percentiles. The extra wave effects were estimated using a two-stage model to ensure that their effects were estimated after removing the general effects of temperature. The increases in deaths associated with cold waves were generally small and not statistically significant, and there was even evidence of a decreased risk during the coldest waves. Heat waves generally increased the risk of death, particularly for the hottest heat threshold. Cold waves of a colder intensity or longer duration were not more dangerous. Cold waves earlier in the cool season were more dangerous, as were heat waves earlier in the warm season. In general there was no increased risk of death during cold waves above the known increased risk associated with cold temperatures. Cold or heat waves earlier in the cool or warm season may be more dangerous because of a build up in the susceptible pool or a lack of preparedness for extreme temperatures.
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| 7. |
- Gardner, Michael, et al.
(författare)
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Gender and telomere length : Systematic review and meta-analysis
- 2014
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Ingår i: Experimental Gerontology. - : Elsevier. - 0531-5565 .- 1873-6815. ; 51, s. 15-27
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: It is widely believed that females have longer telomeres than males, although results from studies have been contradictory. Methods: We carried out a systematic review and meta-analyses to test the hypothesis that in humans, females have longer telomeres than males and that this association becomes stronger with increasing age. Searches were conducted in EMBASE and MEDLINE (by November 2009) and additional datasets were obtained from study investigators. Eligible observational studies measured telomeres for both females and males of any age, had a minimum sample size of 100 and included participants not part of a diseased group. We calculated summary estimates using random-effects meta-analyses. Heterogeneity between studies was investigated using sub-group analysis and meta-regression. Results: Meta-analyses from 36 cohorts (36,230 participants) showed that on average females had longer telomeres than males (standardised difference in telomere length between females and males 0.090, 95% CI 0.015, 0.166; age-adjusted). There was little evidence that these associations varied by age group (p = 1.00) or cell type (p = 0.29). However, the size of this difference did vary by measurement methods, with only Southern blot but neither real-time PCR nor Flow-FISH showing a significant difference. This difference was not associated with random measurement error. Conclusions: Telomere length is longer in females thanmales, although this difference was not universally found in studies that did not use Southern blot methods. Further research on explanations for the methodological differences is required. (C) 2013 Published by Elsevier Inc.
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- Gasparrini, Antonio, et al.
(författare)
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Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios
- 2017
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Ingår i: The Lancet Planetary Health. - 2542-5196. ; 1:9, s. e360-e367
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates.Methods: We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature-mortality relationships through a two-stage time series design. We generated current and future daily mean temperature series under four scenarios of climate change, determined by varying trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, using five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality for cold and heat and their net change in 1990-2099 under each scenario of climate change, assuming no adaptation or population changes.Findings: Our dataset comprised 451 locations in 23 countries across nine regions of the world, including 85 879 895 deaths. Results indicate, on average, a net increase in temperature-related excess mortality under high-emission scenarios, although with important geographical differences. In temperate areas such as northern Europe, east Asia, and Australia, the less intense warming and large decrease in cold-related excess would induce a null or marginally negative net effect, with the net change in 2090-99 compared with 2010-19 ranging from -1·2% (empirical 95% CI -3·6 to 1·4) in Australia to -0·1% (-2·1 to 1·6) in east Asia under the highest emission scenario, although the decreasing trends would reverse during the course of the century. Conversely, warmer regions, such as the central and southern parts of America or Europe, and especially southeast Asia, would experience a sharp surge in heat-related impacts and extremely large net increases, with the net change at the end of the century ranging from 3·0% (-3·0 to 9·3) in Central America to 12·7% (-4·7 to 28·1) in southeast Asia under the highest emission scenario. Most of the health effects directly due to temperature increase could be avoided under scenarios involving mitigation strategies to limit emissions and further warming of the planet.Interpretation: This study shows the negative health impacts of climate change that, under high-emission scenarios, would disproportionately affect warmer and poorer regions of the world. Comparison with lower emission scenarios emphasises the importance of mitigation policies for limiting global warming and reducing the associated health risks.
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