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- Hug, S., et al.
(författare)
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High-dimensional Bayesian parameter estimation: Case study for a model of JAK2/STAT5 signaling
- 2013
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Ingår i: Mathematical Biosciences. - : Elsevier. - 0025-5564 .- 1879-3134. ; 246:2, s. 293-304
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this work we present results of a detailed Bayesian parameter estimation for an analysis of ordinary differential equation models. These depend on many unknown parameters that have to be inferred from experimental data. The statistical inference in a high-dimensional parameter space is however conceptually and computationally challenging. To ensure rigorous assessment of model and prediction uncertainties we take advantage of both a profile posterior approach and Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. We analyzed a dynamical model of the JAK2/STAT5 signal transduction pathway that contains more than one hundred parameters. Using the profile posterior we found that the corresponding posterior distribution is bimodal. To guarantee efficient mixing in the presence of multimodal posterior distributions we applied a multi-chain sampling approach. The Bayesian parameter estimation enables the assessment of prediction uncertainties and the design of additional experiments that enhance the explanatory power of the model. This study represents a proof of principle that detailed statistical analysis for quantitative dynamical modeling used in systems biology is feasible also in high-dimensional parameter spaces.
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| 4. |
- Poetzelsberger, Elisabeth, et al.
(författare)
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Mapping the patchy legislative landscape of non-native tree species in Europe
- 2020
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Ingår i: Forestry (London). - : Oxford University Press. - 0015-752X .- 1464-3626. ; 93:4, s. 567-586
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Europe has a history rich in examples of successful and problematic introductions of trees with a native origin outside of Europe (non-native trees, NNT). Many international legal frameworks such as treaties and conventions and also the European Union have responded to the global concern about potential negative impacts of NNT that may become invasive in natural ecosystems. It is, however, national and regional legislation in particular that affects current and future management decisions in the forest sector and shapes the landscapes of Europe. We identified all relevant legal instruments regulating NNT, the different legal approaches and the regulatory intensity in 40 European countries (no microstates). Information on hard and effective soft law instruments were collected by means of a targeted questionnaire and consultation of international and national legislation information systems and databases. In total, 335 relevant legal instruments were in place in June/July 2019 to regulate the use of NNT in the investigated 116 geopolitical legal units (countries as well as sub-national regions with their own legislation). Countries and regions were empirically categorized according to ad hoc-defined legislation indicators. These indicators pay respect to the general bans on the introduction of non-native species, the generally allowed and prohibited NNT, approval mechanisms and specific areas or cases where NNT are restricted or prohibited. Our study revealed a very diverse landscape of legal frameworks across Europe, with a large variety of approaches to regulating NNT being pursued and the intensity of restriction ranging from very few restrictions on species choice and plantation surface area to the complete banning of NNT from forests. The main conclusion is that there is a clear need for more co-ordinated, science-based policies both at the local and international levels to enhance the advantages of NNT and mitigate potential negative effects.
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