| 1. |
- Webster, Christopher R., et al.
(författare)
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Background levels of methane in Mars' atmosphere show strong seasonal variations
- 2018
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science. - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 360:6393, s. 1093-1096
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Variable levels of methane in the martian atmosphere have eluded explanation partly because the measurements are not repeatable in time or location. We report in situ measurements at Gale crater made over a 5-year period by the Tunable Laser Spectrometer on the Curiosity rover. The background levels of methane have a mean value 0.41 ± 0.16 parts per billion by volume (ppbv) (95% confidence interval) and exhibit a strong, repeatable seasonal variation (0.24 to 0.65 ppbv). This variation is greater than that predicted from either ultraviolet degradation of impact-delivered organics on the surface or from the annual surface pressure cycle. The large seasonal variation in the background and occurrences of higher temporary spikes (~7 ppbv) are consistent with small localized sources of methane released from martian surface or subsurface reservoirs.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Andersson, Tommy, et al.
(författare)
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2022 års ekonomipris till Ben Bernanke, Douglas Diamond och Philip Dybvig
- 2022
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Ingår i: Ekonomisk Debatt. - : Nationalekonomiska Föreningen. - 0345-2646 .- 2002-4231. ; 50:8/2022
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Forskningsöversikt (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Kungl. Vetenskapsakademien har beslutat dela ut årets ekonomipris till Ben Bernanke (verksam vid The Brookings Institution), Douglas Diamond (verksam vid University of Chicago) och Philip Dybvig (verksam vid Washington University, St. Louis) ”för forskning om banker och finanskriser”. Med hjälp av forskningsinsikterna från årets ekonomipristagare har senare finanskriser kunnat hanteras bättre.
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
- Blanchard, Olivier, et al.
(författare)
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Makroekonomi
- 2015
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Bok (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 7. |
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
- Caldara, Dario, 1982-
(författare)
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Essays on Empirical Macroeconomics
- 2011
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This thesis consists of four essays in empirical macroeconomics. What Are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks? A VAR-Based Comparative Analysis The literature using structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) to assess the effects of fiscal policy shocks strongly disagrees on the qualitative and quantitative response of key macroeconomic variables. We find that controlling for differences in specification of the reduced-form model, all identification approaches used in the literature yield similar results regarding the effects of government spending shocks, but diverging results regarding the effects of tax shocks. The Analytics of SVARs. A Unified Framework to Measure Fiscal Multipliers Does fiscal policy stimulate output? SVARs have been used to address this question, but no stylized facts have emerged. I show that different priors about the output elasticities of tax revenue and government expenditures implied by the identification schemes generate a large dispersion in the estimates of tax and spending multipliers. I estimate fiscal multipliers consistent with prior distributions of the elasticities computed by a variety of empirical strategies. I document that in the U.S. spending multipliers are larger than the tax multipliers. Computing DSGE Models with Recursive Preferences and Stochastic Volatility This paper compares solution methods for computing the equilibrium of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with recursive preferences and stochastic volatility. The main finding is that a third-order perturbation is competitive in terms of accuracy with Chebyshev polynomials and value function iteration, while being an order of magnitude faster to run. Business Cycle Accounting and Misspecified DSGE Models This paper investigates how insights from the literature on business cycle accounting can be used to trace out the implications of missing channels in a baseline estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model used for forecast and policy analysis.
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| 10. |
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| 11. |
- Engström, Gustav, 1977-
(författare)
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Essays on Economic Modeling of Climate Change
- 2012
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Structural change in a two-sector model of the climate and the economy introduces issues concerning substitutability among goods in a two-sector economic growth model where emissions from fossil fuels give rise to a climate externality. Substitution is modeled using a CES-production function where the intermediate inputs differ only in their technologies and the way they are affected by the climate externality. I derive a simple formula for optimal taxes and resource allocation over time and highlight model sensitivity w.r.t the elasticity of substitution and distribution parameters.Energy Balance Climate Models and General Equilibrium Optimal Mitigation Policies develops a one-dimensional energy balance climate model with heat diffusion and anthropogenic forcing across latitudes driven by global fossil fuel use coupled to an economic growth model. Our results suggest that if the implementation of international transfers across latitudes are not possible or costly, then optimal taxes are in general spatially non-uniform and may be lower at poorer latitudes. Energy Balance Climate Models, Damage Reservoirs and the Time Profileof Climate Change Policy explores optimal mitigation policies through the lens of a latitude dependent energy balance climate model coupled to an economic growth model. We associate the movement of an endogenous polar ice cap with the idea of a damage reservoir being a finite source of climate related damages affecting the economy. The analysis shows that the introduction of damage reservoirs can generate multiple steady states and Skiba points.Assessing Sustainable Development in a DICE World investigates a method for assessing sustainable development under climate change in the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE-2007 model). The analysis shows that the sustainability measure is highly sensitive to the calibration of the inter-temporal elasticity parameter and discount rate of the social welfare function.
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| 12. |
- Engström, Kerstin, et al.
(författare)
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Impacts of climate mitigation strategies in the energy sector on global land use and carbon balance
- 2017
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Ingår i: Earth System Dynamics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 2190-4979 .- 2190-4987. ; 8:3, s. 773-799
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Reducing greenhouse gas emissions to limit damage to the global economy climate-change-induced and secure the livelihoods of future generations requires ambitious mitigation strategies. The introduction of a global carbon tax on fossil fuels is tested here as a mitigation strategy to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations and radiative forcing. Taxation of fossil fuels potentially leads to changed composition of energy sources, including a larger relative contribution from bioenergy. Further, the introduction of a mitigation strategy reduces climate-change-induced damage to the global economy, and thus can indirectly affect consumption patterns and investments in agricultural technologies and yield enhancement. Here we assess the implications of changes in bioenergy demand as well as the indirectly caused changes in consumption and crop yields for global and national cropland area and terrestrial biosphere carbon balance. We apply a novel integrated assessment modelling framework, combining three previously published models (a climate-economy model, a socio-economic land use model and an ecosystem model). We develop reference and mitigation scenarios based on the narratives and key elements of the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Taking emissions from the land use sector into account, we find that the introduction of a global carbon tax on the fossil fuel sector is an effective mitigation strategy only for scenarios with low population development and strong sustainability criteria (SSP1 Taking the green road). For scenarios with high population growth, low technological development and bioenergy production the high demand for cropland causes the terrestrial biosphere to switch from being a carbon sink to a source by the end of the 21st century.
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| 13. |
- Fausch, Jürg, 1982-
(författare)
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Essays on Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- 2017
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Asset pricing implications of a DSGE model with recursive preferences and nominal rigidities. I study jointly macroeconomic dynamics and asset prices implied by a production economy featuring nominal price rigidities and Epstein-Zin (1989) preferences. Using a reasonable calibration, the macroeconomic DSGE model is consistent with a number of stylized facts observed in financial markets like the equity premium, a negative real term spread, a positive nominal term spread and the predictability of stock returns, without compromising the model's ability to fit key macroeconomic variables. The interest rate smoothing in the monetary policy rule helps generate a low risk-free rate volatility which has been difficult to achieve for standard real business cycle models where monetary policy is neutral. In an application, I show that the model provides a framework for analyzing monetary policy interventions and the associated effects on asset prices and the real economy.Macroeconomic news and the stock market: Evidence from the eurozone. This paper is an empirical study of excess return behavior in the stock market in the euro area around days when important macroeconomic news about inflation, unemployment or interest rates are scheduled for announcement. I identify state dependence such that equity risk premia on announcement days are significantly higher when the interests rates are in the vicinity of the zero lower bound. Moreover, I provide evidence that for the whole sample period, the average excess returns in the eurozone are only higher on days when FOMC announcements are scheduled for release. However, this result vanishes in a low interest rate regime. Finally, I document that the European stock market does not command a premium for scheduled announcements by the European Central Bank (ECB).The impact of ECB monetary policy surprises on the German stock market. We examine the impact of ECB monetary policy surprises on German excess stock returns and the possible reasons for such a response. First, we conduct an event study to asses the impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on stock returns. Second, within the VAR framework of Campbell and Ammer (1993), we decompose excess stock returns into news regarding expected excess returns, future dividends and future real interest rates. We measure conventional monetary policy shocks using futures markets data. Our main findings are that the overall variation in German excess stock returns mainly reflects revisions in expectations about dividends and that the stock market response to monetary policy shocks is dependent on the prevailing interest rate regime. In periods of negative real interest rates, a surprise monetary tightening leads to a decrease in excess stock returns. The channels behind this response are news about higher expected excess returns and lower future dividends.
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| 14. |
- Färnstrand Damsgaard, Erika, 1978-
(författare)
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Essays on Technology Choice and Spillovers
- 2008
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This thesis consists of three essays on technology choice and spillovers.“Patent Scope and Technology Choice” analyzes the effect of an increase in patent scope on investments in R&D and innovation. It presents a model where a broad scope of the patent on the state-of-the-art technology can induce the entrant firm to do research on an alternative technology. The model predicts that an increase in patent scope can increase the probability of innovation if the incumbent's profit increase from innovating is large and the patented technology has a small advantage over the alternative technology. However, when the model is extended to Stackelberg competition or licensing, the benefit of a broad patent scope to a large extent disappears.“The World Distribution of Productivity: Country TFP Choice in a Nelson-Phelps Economy” builds a theory of the shape of the distribution of total-factor productivity (TFP) across countries. The distribution of productivity across countries is arguably twin-peaked in the data and the proposed theory presents conditions under which twin-peakedness is an equilibrium outcome. The theory combines technology spillovers, modeled as in the Nelson-Phelps specification, and dynamic benefits of TFP accumulation under rational government decision making.“Exhaustible Resources, Technology Choice and Industrialization of Developing Countries” studies technology choice in a dynamic model with two technologies for production; one which uses an exhaustible resource and an alternative technology which does not. The main finding is that if the capital stock is large relative to the resource stock, the alternative technology is immediately adopted and the time path of resource extraction is decreasing. If, instead, the capital stock is small, the alternative technology is adopted with a delay and the time path of extraction is inverse-U shaped.
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| 15. |
- Ge, Jinfeng, 1977-
(författare)
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Essays on Macroeconomics and Political Economy
- 2012
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This thesis consists of three self-contained essays dealing with different aspects of macroeconomics and political Economy.The Relative Price of Investment Goods and Sectoral Contract DependenceI develop a quantitative model to explain the relationship between TFPs at the aggregate and sector levels and contracting institutions across countries. The incomplete contract enforcement induces distortions in the production process which come from the “hold up” problem between a final goods firm and its suppliers. Because investment goods sector is more contract dependent, its productivity suffers more from the distortion. In turn, countries endowed with weaker contract enforcement institutions face higher relative prices of investment goods.A Ricardian Model of the Labor Market with Directed SearchI analyze how search friction affects the allocation in a Ricardian model of the labor market. The equilibrium shows that the matching pattern is partially mixed: Some tasks are only performed by skilled workers; some are only performed by unskilled workers; the remaining tasks are performed by both skilled and unskilled workers. The mixed matching pattern implies a mismatch in equilibrium. It turns out that the reason for the mismatch has its roots in search friction. In addition, I show labor market institutions have interesting implications for the unemployment rate and mismatch.A Dynamic Analysis of the Free-rider ProblemI argue that special interest groups overcome their free-rider problem thanks to distorted government policy. As policy confers monopoly privileges on a group, it can also preserve and promote group’s organization. The key to sustaining the organization of the group is a dynamic incentive: when distorted policy generates rents for a group, each member of the group wish to make contributions not just to raise their rents today; they want to sustain their cooperation so that they will be able to influence policy in the future.
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| 16. |
- Golosov, Mikhail, et al.
(författare)
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Optimal Taxes on Fossil Fuel in General Equilibrium
- 2014
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Ingår i: Econometrica. - 0012-9682 .- 1468-0262. ; 82:1, s. 41-88
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We analyze a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium (DSGE) model with an externality—through climate change—from using fossil energy. Our central result is a simple formula for the marginal externality damage of emissions (or, equivalently, for the optimal carbon tax). This formula, which holds under quite plausible assumptions, reveals that the damage is proportional to current GDP, with the proportion depending only on three factors: (i) discounting, (ii) the expected damage elasticity (how many percent of the output flow is lost from an extra unit of carbon in the atmosphere), and (iii) the structure of carbon depreciation in the atmosphere. Thus, the stochastic values of future output, consumption, and the atmospheric CO2 concentration, as well as the paths of technology (whether endogenous or exogenous) and population, and so on, all disappear from the formula. We find that the optimal tax should be a bit higher than the median, or most well-known, estimates in the literature. We also formulate a parsimonious yet comprehensive and easily solved model allowing us to compute the optimal and market paths for the use of different sources of energy and the corresponding climate change. We find coal—rather than oil—to be the main threat to economic welfare, largely due to its abundance. We also find that the costs of inaction are particularly sensitive to the assumptions regarding the substitutability of different energy sources and technological progress.
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| 17. |
- Hassler, Donald M., et al.
(författare)
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Mars’ surface radiation environment measured with the Mars Science Laboratory’s Curiosity Rover
- 2014
-
Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 343:6169
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Radiation Assessment Detector (RAD) on the Mars Science Laboratory’s Curiosity rover began making detailed measurements of the cosmic ray and energetic particle radiation environment on the surface of Mars on 7 August 2012. We report and discuss measurements of the absorbed dose and dose equivalent from galactic cosmic rays and solar energetic particles on the martian surface for ~300 days of observations during the current solar maximum. These measurements provide insight into the radiation hazards associated with a human mission to the surface of Mars and provide an anchor point with which to model the subsurface radiation environment, with implications for microbial survival times of any possible extant or past life, as well as for the preservation of potential organic biosignatures of the ancient martian environment.
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| 18. |
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| 19. |
- Hassler, John, et al.
(författare)
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2018 års Ekonomipris till William Nordhaus och Paul Romer
- 2018
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Ingår i: Ekonomisk debatt. - : Nationalekonomiska Föreningen. - 2002-4231 .- 0345-2646. ; , s. 6-18
-
Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Kungl Vetenskapsakademien har delat ut årets ekonomipris till William Nordhaus (verksam vid Yale University) ”för att ha integrerat klimatförändringar i långsiktig makroekonomisk analys” och Paul Romer (verksam vid New York University) ”för att ha integrerat teknisk utveckling i långsiktig makroekonomisk analys.” Nordhaus och Romer har vidgat vyerna för ekonomisk analys genom att konstruera modeller som visar hur marknadsekonomin växelverkar med naturen och med våra samlade kunskaper. Deras modeller och metoder hjälper oss att angripa några av vår tids mest avgörande och utmanande frågor om uthållig och hållbar ekonomisk tillväxt samt globalt välstånd.
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| 20. |
- Hassler, John, et al.
(författare)
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A Positive Theory of Geographic Mobility and Social Insurance
- 2002
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- this paper presents a tractable dynamic general equilibrium model that can explain cross-country empirical regularities in geographical mobility, unemployment and labor market institutions. Rational agents vote over unemployment insurance (UI), taking the dynamic distortionary effects of insurance on the performance of the labor market into consideration. Agents with higher cost of moving, i.e., more attached to their current location, prefer more generous UI. The key assumption is that an agent's attachment to a location increases the longer she has resided there. UI reduces the incentive for labor mobility and increases, therefore, the fraction of attached agents and the political support for UI. The main result is that this self-reinforcing mechanism can give rise to multiple steady-states - one "European" steady-state featuring high unemployment, low geographical mobility and high unemployment insurance, and one "American" steady-state featuring low unemployment, high mobility and low unemployment insurance.
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| 21. |
- Hassler, John
(författare)
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Are they Swinging Together? : A Measure of Linear Comovement with an Application to Swedish and Foreign Business Cycles
- 1993
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- A frequency band specific measure of the degree of linear comovement that does not need any assumptions about the structure of the dependence except linearity is defined. The distribution of the measure is simulated using Monte Carlo methods. The sensitivity of the distributions to the characteristics of the underlying processes is substantially reduced if low frequencies, for example the Hodrick-Prescott filter, may be dominated by the behavior at low frequencies. Explicit treatment of different frequency bands may then be preferable. The measure of linear comovement is applied to Swedish and foreign macro time series spanning the period 1861 to 1988. A substantial degree of comovement between Swedish consumption related variables and foreign GDP is found while Swedish GDP and manufacturing production is clearly less covariant with foreign GDP.
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| 22. |
- Hassler, John, et al.
(författare)
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Chapter 24 – Environmental Macroeconomics
- 2016
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Ingår i: Handbook of Macroeconomics. - : Elsevier. - 1574-0048. - 9780444594877 ; , s. 1893-2008
-
Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We discuss climate change and resource scarcity from the perspective of macroeconomic modeling and quantitative evaluation. Our focus is on climate change: we build a very simple “integrated assessment model,” ie, a model that integrates the global economy and the climate in a unified framework. Such a model has three key modules: the climate, the carbon cycle, and the economy. We provide a description of how to build tractable and yet realistic modules of the climate and the carbon cycle. The baseline economic model, then, is static but has a macroeconomic structure, ie, it has the standard features of modern macroeconomic analysis. Thus, it is quantitatively specified and can be calibrated to obtain an approximate social cost of carbon. The static model is then used to illustrate a number of points that have been made in the broad literature on climate change. Our chapter begins, however, with a short discussion of resource scarcity—also from the perspective of standard macroeconomic modeling—offering a dynamic framework of analysis and stating the key challenges. Our last section combines resource scarcity and the integrated assessment setup within a fully dynamic general equilibrium model with uncertainty. That model delivers positive and normative quantitative implications and can be viewed as a platform for macroeconomic analysis of climate change and sustainability issues more broadly.
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| 23. |
- Hassler, John, et al.
(författare)
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Climate policy
- 2015
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Ingår i: Economic Policy. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0266-4658 .- 1468-0327. ; 31:87, s. 503-558
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper makes suggestions for climate policy and defends them based on recent research in economics and the natural sciences. In summary: (i) the optimal carbon tax is rather modest; (ii) the key climate threat is coal; (iii) a carbon tax is to be preferred over a quantity-based system; (iv) the optimal tax on carbon does not appreciably harm growth; (v) subsidies to green technology are beneficial for the climate only to the extent that they make green technology outcompete coal; and (vi) a carbon tax is politically feasible.
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| 24. |
- Hassler, John, et al.
(författare)
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Democratic Public Good Provision
- 2007
-
Ingår i: Journal of Economic Theory. ; 133:1, s. 127-151
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 25. |
- Hassler, John, et al.
(författare)
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Directed Technical Change as a Response to Natural Resource Scarcity
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Journal of Political Economy. - : University of Chicago Press. - 0022-3808 .- 1537-534X. ; 129:11, s. 3039-3072
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We develop a quantitative macroeconomic theory of input-saving technical change to analyze how markets economize on scarce natural resources, with an application to fossil fuel. We find that aggregate US data call for a very low short-run substitution elasticity between energy and the capital/labor inputs. Our estimates imply that energy-saving technical change took off when the oil shocks hit in the 1970s. This response implies significant substitutability with the other inputs in the long run: even under ever-rising energy prices, long-run consumption growth is still possible, along with a modest factor share of energy.
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| 26. |
- Hassler, John, et al.
(författare)
-
ECONOMICS AND CLIMATE CHANGE: INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT IN A MULTI-REGION WORLD
- 2012
-
Ingår i: Journal of the European Economic Association. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1542-4766 .- 1542-4774. ; 10:5, s. 974-1000
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper develops a model that integrates the climate and the global economyan integrated assessment modelwith which different policy scenarios can be analyzed and compared. The model is a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium setup with a continuum of regions. Thus, it is a full stochastic general-equilibrium version of RICE, Nordhauss pioneering multi-region integrated assessment model. Like RICE, our model features traded fossil fuel but otherwise has no markets across regionsthere is no insurance nor any intertemporal trade across them. The extreme form of market incompleteness is not fully realistic but arguably not a bad approximation of reality. Its major advantage is that, along with a set of reasonable assumptions on preferences, technology, and nature, it allows a closed-form model solution. We use the model to assess the welfare consequences of carbon taxes that differ across as well as within oil-consuming and -producing regions. We show that, surprisingly, only taxes on oil producers can improve the climate: taxes on oil consumers have no effect at all. The calibrated model suggests large differences in views on climate policy across regions.
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| 27. |
- Hassler, John, et al.
(författare)
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Employment Turnover and Unemployment Insurance
- 1997
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Two features distinguish European and US labor markets. First, most European countries have substantially more generous unemployment insurance. Second, the duration of unemployment and employment spells are substantially higher in Europe - employment turnover is lower. We show that self-insruance, i.e., saving and borrowing, is a good substitute for unemployment insurance when turnover is high as in US. If the insurance system is less than perfectly actuarilly fair, the employed median voter he will then prefer to self-insure instead of having unemployment insurance if turnover is high. We also show high unemployment insurance make unemployed more willing to wait for a job with low separation rates. This could make both high turnover/low insurance (US) and low turnover/high insurance (Europe) stable equilibria. Low turnover also leads to a strong divergence between the long and short run interest of the employed.- In absence of devices such that the median voter can bind future voters to some level of insurance, the voting cycle must thus be long in order to support a high level of insurance.
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| 28. |
- Hassler, John, et al.
(författare)
-
Environmental Macroeconomics
- 2016
-
Ingår i: Handbook of Macroeconomics, Vol. 2 / edited by John B. Taylor and Harald Uhlig. - Amsterdam : Elsevier. - 9780444594877 ; , s. 1893-2008
-
Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We discuss climate change and resource scarcity from the perspective of macroeconomic modeling and quantitative evaluation. Our focus is on climate change: we build a very simple “integrated assessment model,” ie, a model that integrates the global economy and the climate in a unified framework. Such a model has three key modules: the climate, the carbon cycle, and the economy. We provide a description of how to build tractable and yet realistic modules of the climate and the carbon cycle. The baseline economic model, then, is static but has a macroeconomic structure, ie, it has the standard features of modern macroeconomic analysis. Thus, it is quantitatively specified and can be calibrated to obtain an approximate social cost of carbon. The static model is then used to illustrate a number of points that have been made in the broad literature on climate change. Our chapter begins, however, with a short discussion of resource scarcity—also from the perspective of standard macroeconomic modeling—offering a dynamic framework of analysis and stating the key challenges. Our last section combines resource scarcity and the integrated assessment setup within a fully dynamic general equilibrium model with uncertainty. That model delivers positive and normative quantitative implications and can be viewed as a platform for macroeconomic analysis of climate change and sustainability issues more broadly. © 2016 Elsevier B.V.
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| 29. |
- Hassler, John, et al.
(författare)
-
Equilibrium Unemployment Insurance
- 1999
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In this paper, we incorporate a positive theory of unemployment insurance into a dynamic overlapping generations model with search-matching frictions and on-the-job learning-by-doing. The model shows that societies populated by identical rational agents, but differing in the initial distribution of human capital across agents, may choose very different unemployment insurance levels in a politico-economic equilibrium. The interaction between the political decision about the level of the unemployment insurance and the optimal search behavior of the unemployed gives rise to a self-reinforcing mechanism which may generate multiple stady-state equillibria. In particular, a European-type steady-state with high unemployment, low employment turnover and high insurance can co-exist with an American-type steady-state with low unemployment, high employment turnover and low unemployment insurance. A calibrated version of the model features two distinct steady-state equilibria with unemployment levels and duration rates resembling those of the U.S. and Europe, respectively.
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| 30. |
- Hassler, John, et al.
(författare)
-
Inequality and mobility
- 2007
-
Ingår i: Journal of economic growth (Boston). - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1381-4338 .- 1573-7020. ; 12:3, s. 235-259
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Acknowledging that wage inequality and intergenerational mobility are strongly interrelated, this paper presents a model in which both are jointly determined. The model enables us to study how inequality and mobility are affected by exogenous changes and what determines their correlation. A main implication of the model is that differences in the amount of public subsidies to education and educational quality produce cross-country patterns with a negative correlation between inequality and mobility. Differences in the labor market, like differences in skill-biased technology or wage compression instead produce a positive correlation. The predictions of the model are found to be consistent with various empirical observations on mobility and inequality.
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| 31. |
- Hassler, John, et al.
(författare)
-
Intergenerational Risk Sharing, Stability and Optimality of Alternative Pension Systems
- 1997
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In an analysis of the risk-sharing properties of different types of pension systems, we show that only a fixed-fee pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension systems can provide intergenerational risk sharing for living individuals. Under some circumstances, however, other PAYG pensions systems can enhance the expected welfare of all generations by reducing intergenerational income variability. We derive conditions for this to occur. We also analyze the stability of actuarially far PAYG pensions systems. It is shown that if an actuarially fair pension with a non-balanced budget system is dynamically stable, its accumulated surpluses will converge to the same fund as in a fully funded system. We also show that the welfare loss due to labor market distortions will, surprisingly, increase if the implicit marginal return in a compulsory system raised above the average return.
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| 32. |
- Hassler, John, et al.
(författare)
-
IQ, Social Mobility and Growth
- 1998
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Intelligent agents may contribute to higher technological growth, if assigned appropriate positions in the economy. These positive effects on growth are unlikely to be internalized ona competitive labor market. The allocation of talent depends on the relative award the market assigns to intelligence versus other individual merits, which will alos influence intergenerational social mobility. To illustrate this, we present an endogenous growth model where each agent can choose to be a worker or an entrepeneur. The reward to entrepeneurs is an endogenous function of the abilities they have been endowed by nature as well as of the amount of knowledge and other social assets they inherit from their parents. When growth is low, the equilibrium in the labor market implies that the reward to entrepeneurs, which will cause low intergenerational social mobility and an inefficient allocation of human resources and, consequently, low growth. On the other hand, there is also a stable equilibrium with high growth which mitigates the inefficiencies generated by the labor market and implies high intergenerational social mobility.
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| 33. |
- Hassler, John, et al.
(författare)
-
Klimatet och ekonomin
- 2013
-
Ingår i: SNS analys. - 2001-9742. ; :14, s. 1-16
-
Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 34. |
- Hassler, John
(författare)
-
Macroeconomic Perspectives on the Corona Crisis
- 2021
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Ingår i: Globalization, Political Economy, Business and Society in Pandemic Times. - Bingley : Emerald Group Publishing Limited. - 9781800717930
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 35. |
- Hassler, John, et al.
(författare)
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Oil Monopoly and the Climate
- 2010
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Ingår i: The American Economic Review. - : The American Economic Association. - 0002-8282 .- 1944-7981. ; 100:2, s. 460-464
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 36. |
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| 37. |
- Hassler, John, et al.
(författare)
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Optimal Actuarial Fairness in Pension Systems
- 1996
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- A rationale for a compulsory pension system is that the government wants to correct supposedly myopic behavior by the individuals. Given such a system, we calculate the optimal relation between marginal contributions and benefits, i.e., the optimal degree of marginal actuarial fairness, for the individuals or for the government. We show that the optimal degree of marginal actuarial fairness increases in the rate of return in the social security system and also decreases in the government's rate of time preference. It is also shown that labor supple always increases when the link between marginal contributions and benefits is strengthened.
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| 38. |
- Hassler, John
(författare)
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Regime Shifts and Volatility Spillovers in Internationel Stock Markets
- 1995
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- A standard capital asset pricing model is extended to allow for stochastic shifts in the volatility of the news process. This model is then estimated on bivariate stock market data to separate two exogenous news processes - a world and a domestic. The results indicate that the influence of the world news process on the Swedish stock market has increased significantly over the period 1970-1995. I also find that the foreign influence is much stronger when the volatility of the world news process is high. Furthermore, when the world state shifts to high risk, the Swedish stock market immediately reacts by a large fall, estimated to 7.0%. The bivariate model is also estimated on a set of other national stock markets.
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| 39. |
- Hassler, John, et al.
(författare)
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Should Developing Countries Constrain Resource-Income Spending? A Quantitative Analysis of Oil Income in Uganda
- 2017
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Ingår i: Energy Journal. - : International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE). - 0195-6574 .- 1944-9089. ; 38:1, s. 103-131
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A large increase in government spending following resource discoveries often entails political risks, inefficient investments and increased volatility. Setting up a sovereign wealth fund with a clear spending constraint may decrease these risks. On the other hand, in a capital scarce developing economy with limited access to international borrowing, such a spending constraint may lower welfare by reducing domestic capital accumulation and hindering consumption increases for the currently poor. These two contradicting considerations pose a dilemma for policy makers in deciding whether to set up a sovereign wealth fund with a spending constraint. Using Uganda's recent oil discovery as a case study, this paper presents a quantitative macroeconomic analysis and examines the potential loss of constraining spending through a sovereign wealth fund with a simple spending rule. We find that the loss is relatively low and unlikely to dominate the political risks associated with increased oil spending. Thus, such a spending constraint appears well warranted.
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| 40. |
- Hassler, John, et al.
(författare)
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SNS Economic Policy Council Report 2020 : Swedish Policy for Global Climate
- 2020
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Climate policy is a complex area that requires input from many different perspectives. The sns Economic Policy Council 2020 comprises nine researchers from a range of disciplines, with different backgrounds and with varied opinions on the debate surrounding climate policy. They analyse Swedish climate policy in a global context, describing the causes and consequences of climate change and focusing on how policy can achieve the desired reductions in carbon emissions. The report also provides answers to questions that are frequently discussed in the Swedish debate, such as the effectiveness of climate aid and whether Sweden should generate a larger surplus of fossil-free electricity for export.
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| 41. |
- Hassler, John, et al.
(författare)
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Suboptimal Climate Policy
- 2021
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Ingår i: Journal of the European Economic Association. - 1542-4766 .- 1542-4774. ; 19:6, s. 2895-2928
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- There is a scientific consensus that human activities, in the form of emissions of carbon dioxide intothe atmosphere, cause global warming. These emissions mostly occur in the marketplace, that is,they are undertaken by private individuals and firms. Governments seeking to curb emissions thusneed to design policies that influence market behavior in the direction of their goals. Economistsrefer to Pigou taxation as “the” solution here, since the case of global warming can be seen as apure (negative) externality. We agree. However, given the reluctance of policymakers to agree withus, there is an urgent need to consider, and compare, suboptimal policies. In this paper, we look atone such instance: setting a global tax on carbon at the wrong level. How costly are different errors?Since there is much uncertainty about how much climate change there will be, and how damagingit is when it occurs, ex-post errors will most likely be made. We compare different kinds of errorsqualitatively and quantitatively and find that policy errors based on over-pessimistic views on climatechange are much less costly than those made based on over-optimism. This finding is an inherentfeature of standard integrated assessment models, even though these models do not feature tippingpoints or strong linearities.
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| 42. |
- Hassler, John, et al.
(författare)
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Svensk politik för globalt klimat
- 2020
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Bok (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Nio forskare från olika discipliner ingår i SNS Konjunkturråd 2020. Forskarna har bred bakgrund inom nationalekonomi, juridik, naturvetenskap och ingenjörsvetenskap. Tillsammans har de skrivit SNS Konjunkturrådsrapport 2020: Svensk politik för globalt klimat, där de fokuserar på hur politiken ska utformas för att bromsa och till slut stoppa klimatförändringarna. Några av deras viktigaste förslag och rekommendationer: Låt kolet stanna i marken. Det är kolet, inte konventionell olja, som är det centrala hotet mot klimatet. Om klimatförändringarna ska hejdas måste Kina bli av med sitt kolberoende. Indien och Afrika kan inte heller följa Kinas kolkraftsbaserade utvecklingsstrategi. Merparten av världens kolreserver måste stanna i marken.Inför globalt minimipris på koldioxidutsläpp och slopa fossilsubventioner. Det är två nödvändiga ingredienser i klimatpolitiken som måste diskuteras på FN:s nästa stora klimatkonferens COP26 i Glasgow.Gröna subventioner räcker inte för att minska utsläppen. Billig grön energi leder till ökad användning av sådan men inte automatiskt till att fossila bränslen utkonkurreras.Bidra till rätt global inriktning. Den svenska klimatpolitiken bör ha som överordnat mål att minska de globala utsläppen.Bidra finansiellt till andra länders omställning. Klokt och välavvägt klimatbistånd är både möjligt och önskvärt. Inom ramen för EU:s klimatpolitik finns fungerande sätt att finansera mindre rika medlemsländers utsläppsminskningar. Men eftersom även Sverige måste bli klimatneutralt bör ett ökat klimatbistånd inte minska de svenska klimatambitionerna.Klimatklubbar. Sverige bör driva frågan om att det ska vara tillåtet att införa klimattullar mot länder som inte har en acceptabel nivå på utsläppspriset. En modell är så kallade klimatklubbar där länder går ihop och sätter ett enhetligt utsläppspris. Import från länder som inte deltar i klubben beläggs med en tull.Fossilfri elexport kan ge betydande minskningar av utsläppen inom EU genom att pressa undan kolkraft där sådan fortfarande används.Finansiera insamling och lagring av koldioxid (CCS-teknik) med lagringspeng. Vi kan ta hand om koldioxid motsvarande hälften av Sveriges utsläpp till en kostnad motsvarande det som dras in till staten via koldioxidskatten. Det krävs dock en statlig finansiering som bör utformas som ett bidrag per ton insamlad och säkert lagrad koldioxid:– Motsvarande runt hälften av Sveriges koldioxidutsläpp kan tas bort om CCS-tekniken införs på de 27 industrianläggningar som släpper ut mest i Sverige. Detta är mer än utsläppen från hela den svenska vägtrafiken. Tekniken fungerar också i resten av världen och Sverige kan här bli ett föregångsland, säger John Hassler, ordförande i SNS Konjunkturråd 2020.
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| 43. |
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| 44. |
- Hassler, John, et al.
(författare)
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The Consequences of Uncertainty: Climate Sensitivity and Economic Sensitivity to the Climate
- 2018
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Ingår i: Annual Review of Economics. - : Annual Reviews. - 1941-1383 .- 1941-1391. - 9780824346102 ; , s. 189-205
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- We construct an integrated assessment model with multiple energy sources-two fossil fuels and green energy-and use it to evaluate ranges of plausible estimates for the climate sensitivity, as well as for the sensitivity of the economy to climate change. Rather than focusing explicitly on uncertainty, we look at extreme scenarios defined by the upper and lower limits given in available studies in the literature. We compare optimal policy with laissez faire, and we point out the possible policy errors that could arise. By far the largest policy error arises when the climate policy is overly passive; overly zealous climate policy (i.e., a high carbon tax applied when climate change and its negative impacts on the economy are very limited) does not hurt the economy much as there is considerable substitutability between fossil and nonfossil energy sources.
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| 45. |
- Hassler, John, et al.
(författare)
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The fossil episode
- 2016
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Ingår i: Journal of Monetary Economics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0304-3932 .- 1873-1295. ; 83, s. 14-26
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Agriculture sector output (biocarbon) is a good substitute for oil in energy production but oil cannot be used as food. This one-way substitutability is analyzed in a dynamic general equilibrium model. It features three endogenous phases: a pure fossil, a mixed fossil and biocarbon and an absorbing biocarbon fuel only phase. In the latter two, the demand for biocarbon as fuel leads to increasing food prices. Depending on how easily capital and labor can reallocate, food prices increase by between 40% and 240%. The model is also used to analyze climate consequences of biocarbon fuel polices and of the shale revolution.
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| 46. |
- Hassler, John, et al.
(författare)
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The Fossile Episode
- 2012
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Rapport (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
- We build a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model with one-sided substitutability between fossil carbon and biocarbon. One shock only, the discovery of the technology to use fossil fuels, leads to a transition from an initial pre-industrial phase to three following ohases: a pure fossil carbon phase, a mixed fossil and biocarbon phase and an absorbing biocarbon phase. The increased competition for biocarbon during phase 3 and 4 leads to increasing food prices. We provide closed form expressions for this price increase. Our calibration leads to a price increase of 40% if capital and labor are allowed to move to the biocarbon sector. Otherwise, the price increase is much higher. We also use the model to analyze the consequences of restrictions on using biocarbon as fuel. We show that such restrictions can lead to a substantially slower global warming due to an endogenous slowdown of fossil fuel extraction.
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| 47. |
- Hassler, John, et al.
(författare)
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The Survival of the Welfare State
- 2002
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This paper provides an analytical chracterization of Markov perfect equilibria in a politico-economic model with repeated voting, where agents vote over distortionary incom redistribution. The key feature of the theory is that the future constituency of redistributive policies depends positively on the current level of redistribution, since this affects both private investments and the future distribution of voters. Agents vote rationally and fully anticipate the effects of their political choice on both private incentives and future voting outcomes. The model features multiple equilibria. In "pro-welfare" equilibria, both welfare state policies and their effects on distribution persist forever. In "anti-welfare equilibria", eben a majority of beneficiaries of redistributive policies vote strategically so as to induce formation of a future majority that will vote for zero redistribution.
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| 48. |
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| 49. |
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| 50. |
- Hassler, John
(författare)
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Variations in Risk : A Cause of Fluctuations in Demand?
- 1993
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- It is a common belief, both among economists and non-economists, that consumers' perception of the riskiness of their future real income is important for economic activity. Studies of the effects of risk on demand have generally assumed away transaction costs. This is critical assumption. Risk in conjunction with transaction costs will give rise to irreversibility effect that are likely to be quantatively important explanations for fluctuations in the demand for duarbles. I will show that the sensitivity for demand to variations in income risk is likely to be much higher for durables than for non-durables. Consumers' perception about the risk facing them presumable varies systematically over the business cycle. Irreversibility effects can then be an important business cycles mechanism. I will present a model in which agents know that the risk of income shocks varies stochastically as opposed to the standard procedure of doing comparative statistics. For durables that are renewed every five years, a temporary increase in the unemployment risk from one to ten percent per year causes the demand for duarbles to vanish for 3,5 months. The demand then stabilizes at a level 5% lower than before the increase in risk. Furthermore, I show that in contrast to the demand for non-durables, the fall in the demand for durables is larger the shorter the expected duration of the high risk period.
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