| 1. |
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| 2. |
- Eriksson, Lina, 1976, et al.
(författare)
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Klimatomställning och krav på kompensation
- 2022
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Ingår i: Tidskrift för politisk filosofi. - 1402-2710. ; 26:1, s. 21-32
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- En aktuell fråga på energirättvisans område är hur vi ska för- dela de kostnader som uppstår när vi ska fasa ut fossila bränslen och ställa om våra energisystem till nollutsläpp. Enligt vissa kan en sådan omställning bara vara rättvis (man talar då om ”just transi- tion”) om de hårdast drabbade aktörerna ersätts på olika sätt. Ar- gumenten för ersättning är ibland pragmatiska, och säger då att kli- matomställningen är svår att genomföra i praktiken om inte de som drabbas negativt av den ersätts, eftersom motståndet annars blir för stort (Abram et al. 2020). Men det finns även ett moraliskt argu- ment som säger att de som drabbas utsätts för en orättvisa och där- med förtjänar kompensation. De negativa konsekvenserna behöver inte vara rent ekonomiska – de kan även vara emotionella – men er- sättningen tar alltid formen av att staten överför extra ekonomiska medel till olika ändamål. I denna artikel utgår vi från att graden av kompensation bör bero på i vilken grad det kan anses vara orättvist att olika aktörer drabbas på olika sätt, vilket i sin tur beror på hur moraliskt ansvariga dessa aktörer är för de utsläpp som har skett. Vi tillämpar denna tanke i två konkreta klimatpolitiska fall – nedläggningar av kol- kraftverk och höjningar av bensinskatten – och argumenterar för att de krav som ibland ställs på kompensation för aktörer som kol- kraftsarbetare och bilister sällan är rimliga.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Cederberg, Christel, 1959, et al.
(författare)
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Beyond the borders – burdens of Swedish food consumption due to agrochemicals, greenhouse gases and land-use change
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of Cleaner Production. - : Elsevier BV. - 0959-6526. ; 214, s. 644-652
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Authors Sweden's environmental policy aims to solve domestic environmental problems without increasing environmental and health impacts overseas. Realizing this aim requires an indicator system with a consumption-based (or “footprint”) perspective that captures both local and global impacts and their development over time. In this paper, we present a set of novel footprint indicators to measure environmental pressures from Swedish food consumption. The indicators are calculated by combining data and statistics on agrochemicals and deforestation emissions with EXIOBASE3, a global Multi-Regional Input Output (MRIO) database with a unique and high level of product detail across countries. We estimate the use of pesticides and antimicrobial veterinary medicines associated with current Swedish food consumption and compare those footprint indicators with the EU-28. Carbon emissions from deforestation are calculated with a land balance model and included in the overall carbon footprint of food. We find that Sweden, with its large reliance of food imports, exert a significant agro-chemical and climate footprint overseas, mainly in the EU and Latin America. We point to a need for better data and statistics on the use of pesticides, veterinary medicines and agrochemicals residuals (especially in developing countries) as well as improved spatial data on agricultural activity to further reduce uncertainty in the environmental footprint of Swedish food consumption.
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| 5. |
- Ek Fälth, Hanna, 1992, et al.
(författare)
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Trade-offs between aggregated and turbine-level representations of hydropower in optimization models
- 2023
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Ingår i: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. - 1879-0690 .- 1364-0321. ; 183
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To model a future power system with high shares of variable renewables, it is essential to capture the flexibility of dispatchable technologies such as hydropower. However, the representation of hydropower is often oversimplified in energy system investment models, such that the flexibility of hydropower is significantly exaggerated. This suggests the need for improved representations of hydropower that capture physical river dynamics but are computationally efficient to maintain the tractability of large models. Here, we develop a series of hydropower optimization models for a single river with various levels of techno-physical detail to evaluate options for hydropower representations in energy system investment models. All models operate hourly over a full year with perfect foresight. We explore trade-offs between accuracy and computational time involved in including features such as the river network, head-dependent power production, and discharge-dependent turbine efficiencies. We find that the level of detail significantly affects the optimal production and confirm that a simplistic hydropower representation similar to those often used in investment models significantly overestimates the flexibility of hydropower. The most detailed nonconvex model includes a full river network, head-dependency, and turbine efficiencies and is solved in just one hour on a modern desktop computer. Furthermore, we linearize this detailed model, thereby reducing computation time to one minute while featuring production dynamics substantially more similar to the full nonconvex model than a naive linear network model. These contributions pave the way for improving hydropower representations in investment models to avoid overestimating the flexibility that hydropower may provide.
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| 6. |
- Eriksson, Lina, et al.
(författare)
-
Klimatomställning och krav på kompensation
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Tidskrift för politisk filosofi. - 2002-3383. ; 2022:1, s. 21-32
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Många menar att aktörer som drabbas av ökade kostnader som resultat av samhällets klimatomställning bör kompenseras för dessa kostnader. Det här pappret analyserar huruvida rättvisa kräver sådan kompensation. Vi presenterar en teori om moraliskt ansvar enligt vilken man är moraliskt ansvarig för ett utfall om man a) har bidragit kausalt till utfallet, b) visste eller borde ha vetat om ens handlingars konsekvenser, och c) hade kunnat handla annorlunda. Utifrån denna teori analyserar vi sedan faktiskt framförda krav på kompensation vid nedläggningar av kolkraftverk och krav på att bensinpriset inte får höjas eftersom en höjning slår hårt mot landsbygdsbor.
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| 7. |
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| 8. |
- Hedenus, Fredrik, 1976, et al.
(författare)
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Historical wind deployment and implications for energy system models
- 2022
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Ingår i: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 1879-0690 .- 1364-0321. ; 168
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A critical parameter in modeling studies of future decarbonized energy systems is the potential future capacity for onshore wind power. Wind power potential in energy system models is subject to assumptions regarding: (i) constraints on land availability for wind deployment; (ii) how densely wind turbines may be placed over larger areas, and (iii) allocation of capacity with respect to wind speed. By analyzing comprehensive databases of wind turbine locations and other GIS data in eleven countries and seventeen states in Australia, Canada, and the US; all with high penetration levels of wind power, we find that: i) large wind turbines are installed on most land types, even protected areas and land areas with high population density; ii) it is not uncommon with a deployment density up to 0.5 MW/km2 on municipality or county level, with rare outlier municipalities reaching up to 1.5 MW/km2 installed capacity; and iii) wind power has historically been allocated to relatively windy sites with average wind speed above 6 m/s. In many cases, allocation methods used in energy system models do not consistently reflect actual installations. For instance, we find no evidence of concentration of installations at the windiest sites, as is frequently assumed in energy system models. We conclude that assumptions made in models regarding wind power potentials are poorly reflective of historical installation patterns, and we provide new data to enable assumptions that have a more robust empirical foundation.
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
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| 11. |
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| 12. |
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| 13. |
- Kan, Xiaoming, 1988, et al.
(författare)
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Into a cooler future with electricity generated from solar photovoltaic
- 2022
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Ingår i: iScience. - : Elsevier BV. - 2589-0042. ; 25:5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The fast-growing global cooling demand due to income growth in tropical countries necessitates substantial investments in new generation capacity. Despite the synergy between the temporal behavior of cooling demand and solar PV production, it is not clear whether the increased cooling demand will make solar PV more cost-effective or less so. We use a capacity expansion model to investigate the cost-effectiveness of investing in solar PV to meet the electricity demand linked to cooling for seven different regions under various CO2 emission targets. Solar PV plays a dominant role in meeting the additional electricity demand for cooling, and the share of solar PV in the additional generation capacity ranges from 64% to 135%. Additionally, powering electric cooling with mainly solar PV is cheaper than powering the rest of the demand. These results suggest that solar PV may comprise the backbone of electricity supply for cooling in the future electricity system.
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| 14. |
- Kan, Xiaoming, 1988, et al.
(författare)
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The cost of a future low-carbon electricity system without nuclear power – the case of Sweden
- 2020
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Ingår i: Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0360-5442. ; 195
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To achieve the goal of deep decarbonization of the electricity system, more and more variable renewable energy (VRE) is being adopted. However, there is no consensus among researchers on whether the goal can be accomplished without large cost escalation if nuclear power is excluded in the future electricity system. In Sweden, where nuclear power generated 41% of the annual electricity supply in 2014, the official goal is 100% renewable electricity production by 2040. Therefore, we investigate the cost of a future low-carbon electricity system without nuclear power for Sweden. We model the European electricity system with a focus on Sweden and run a techno-economic cost optimization model for capacity investment and dispatch of generation, transmission, storage and demand-response, under a CO2 emission constraint of 10 g/kWh. Our results show that there are no, or only minor, cost benefits to reinvest in nuclear power plants in Sweden once the old ones are decommissioned. This holds for a large range of assumptions on technology costs and possibilities for investment in additional transmission capacity. We contrast our results with the recent study that claims severe cost penalties for not allowing nuclear power in Sweden and discuss the implications of methodology choice.
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| 15. |
- Kan, Xiaoming, 1988, et al.
(författare)
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The impacts of the electricity demand pattern on electricity system cost and the electricity supply mix: A comprehensive modeling analysis for Europe
- 2021
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Ingår i: Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0360-5442. ; 235
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Energy system models for long-term planning are widely used to explore the future electricity system. Typically, to represent the future electricity demand in these models, historical demand profiles are used directly or scaled up linearly. Although the volume change for the electricity demand is considered, the potential change of the demand pattern is ignored. Meanwhile, the future electricity demand pattern is highly uncertain due to various factors, including climate change, e-mobility, electric heating, and electric cooling. We use a techno-economic cost optimization model to investigate a stylized case and assess the effects on system cost and electricity supply mix of assuming different demand patterns for the models. Our results show that differences in diurnal demand patterns affect the system cost by less than 3%. Similarly, demand profiles with a flat seasonal variation or a winter peak result in only minor changes in system cost, as compared to the present demand profile. Demand profiles with a summer peak may display a system cost increase of up to 8%, whereas the electricity supply mix may differ by a factor of two. A more detailed case study is conducted for Europe and the results are consistent with the findings from the stylized case.
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| 16. |
- Mattsson, Niclas, 1967, et al.
(författare)
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An autopilot for energy models – Automatic generation of renewable supply curves, hourly capacity factors and hourly synthetic electricity demand for arbitrary world regions
- 2021
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Ingår i: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 2211-467X. ; 33
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Energy system models are increasingly being used to explore scenarios with large shares of variable renewables. This requires input data of high spatial and temporal resolution and places a considerable preprocessing burden on the modeling team. Here we present a new code set with an open source license for automatic generation of input data for large-scale energy system models for arbitrary regions of the world, including sub-national regions, along with an associated generic capacity expansion model of the electricity system. We use ECMWF ERA5 global reanalysis data along with other public geospatial datasets to generate detailed supply curves and hourly capacity factors for solar photovoltaic power, concentrated solar power, onshore and offshore wind power, and existing and future hydropower. Further, we use a machine learning approach to generate synthetic hourly electricity demand series that describe current demand, which we extend to future years using regional SSP scenarios. Finally, our code set automatically generates costs and losses for HVDC interconnections between neighboring regions. The usefulness of our approach is demonstrated by several different case studies based on input data generated by our code. We show that our model runs of a future European electricity system with high share of renewables are in line with results from more detailed models, despite our use of global datasets and synthetic demand.
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| 17. |
- Millinger, Markus, 1984, et al.
(författare)
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Are biofuel mandates cost-effective? - An analysis of transport fuels and biomass usage to achieve emissions targets in the European energy system
- 2022
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Ingår i: Applied Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 1872-9118 .- 0306-2619. ; 326
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Abatement options for the hard-to-electrify parts of the transport sector are needed to achieve ambitious emissions targets. Biofuels based on biomass, electrofuels based on renewable hydrogen and a carbon source, as well as fossil fuels compensated by carbon dioxide removal (CDR) are the main options. Currently, biofuels are the only renewable fuels available at scale and are stimulated by blending mandates. Here, we estimate the system cost of enforcing such mandates in addition to an overall emissions cap for all energy sectors. We model overnight scenarios for 2040 and 2060 with the sector-coupled European energy system model PyPSA-Eur-Sec, with a high temporal resolution. The following cost drivers are identified: (i) high biomass costs due to scarcity, (ii) opportunity costs for competing usages of biomass for industry heat and combined heat and power (CHP) with carbon capture, and (iii) lower scalability and generally higher cost for biofuels compared to electrofuels and fossil fuels combined with CDR. With a -80% emissions reduction target in 2040, variable renewables, partial electrification of heat, industry and transport, and biomass use for CHP and industrial heat are important for achieving the target at minimal cost, while an abatement of remaining liquid fossil fuel use increases system cost. In this case, a 50% biofuel mandate increases total energy system costs by 123–191 billion €, corresponding to 35%–62% of the liquid fuel cost without a mandate. With a negative -105% emissions target in 2060, fuel abatement options are necessary, and electrofuels or the use of CDR to offset fossil fuel emissions are both more competitive than biofuels. In this case, a 50% biofuel mandate increases total costs by 21–33 billion €, or 11%–15% of the liquid fuel cost without a mandate. Biomass is preferred in CHP and industry heat, combined with carbon capture to serve negative emissions or electrofuel production, thereby utilising biogenic carbon several times. Sensitivity analyses reveal significant uncertainties but consistently support that higher biofuel mandates lead to higher costs.
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| 18. |
- Persson, Martin, 1976, et al.
(författare)
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Climate metrics and the carbon footprint of livestock products: where's the beef?
- 2015
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9318 .- 1748-9326. ; 10:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The livestock sector is estimated to account for 15% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, 80% of which originate from ruminant animal systems due to high emissions of methane (CH4) from enteric fermentation and manure management. However, recent analyses have argued that the carbon footprint (CF) of ruminant meat and dairy products are substantially reduced if one adopts alternative metrics for comparing emissions of GHGs-e.g., the 100 year global temperature change potential (GTP(100)), instead of the commonly used 100 year global warming potential (GWP(100))-due to a lower valuation of CH4 emissions. This raises the question of which metric to use. Ideally, the choice of metric should be related to a climate policy goal. Here, we argue that basing current GHG metrics solely on temperature impact 100 years into the future is inconsistent with the current global climate goal of limiting warming to 2 degrees C, a limit that is likely to be reached well within 100 years. A reasonable GTP value for CH4, accounting for current projections for when 2 degrees C warming will be reached, is about 18, leading to a current CF of 19 kg CO2-eq. per kilo beef (carcass weight, average European system), 20% lower than if evaluated using GWP(100). Further, we show that an application of the GTP metric consistent with a 2 degrees C climate limit leads to the valuation of CH4 increasing rapidly over time as the temperature ceiling is approached. This means that the CF for beef would rise by around 2.5% per year in the coming decades, surpassing the GWP based footprint in only ten years. Consequently, the impact on the livestock sector of substituting GTPs for GWPs would be modest in the near term, but could potentially be very large in the future due to a much higher (>50%) and rapidly appreciating CF.
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| 19. |
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| 20. |
- Reichenberg, Lina, 1976, et al.
(författare)
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Deep decarbonization and the supergrid – Prospects for electricity transmission between Europe and China
- 2022
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Ingår i: Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0360-5442. ; 239
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Long distance transmission within continents has been shown to be one of the most effective variation management strategies to reduce the cost of renewable energy systems. In this paper, we test whether the system cost further decreases when transmission is extended to intercontinental connections. We analyze a Eurasian interconnection between China, Mid-Asia and Europe, using a capacity expansion model with hourly time resolution. Our modelling results suggestthat a supergrid option decreases total system cost by a maximum of 5%, compared to continental grid integration. The maximum cost reductionis achieved when (i) the generation is constrained to be made up almost entirely by renewables, (ii) the land available for VRE farms is relatively limited and the demand is relatively high and (iii) the cost for solar PV and storage is high. This is explained by that a super grid allows for harnessing of remote wind-, solar- and hydro resources demand centers. As for low-cost storage, it represents a competing variation management option, and may substitute part of the role of the supergrid, which is to manage variations through long-distance trade. We conclude that the benefits of a supergrid from a techno-economic perspective are in most cases negligible, or modest at best.
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| 21. |
- Reichenberg, Lina, 1976, et al.
(författare)
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Geographic aggregation of wind power—an optimization methodology for avoiding low outputs
- 2017
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Ingår i: Wind Energy. - : Wiley. - 1099-1824 .- 1095-4244. ; 20:1, s. 19-32
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This work investigates macro-geographic allocation as a means to improve the performance of aggregated wind power output. The focus is on the spatial smoothing effect so as to avoid periods of low output. The work applies multi-objective optimization, in which two measures of aggregated wind power output variation are minimized, whereas the average output is maximized. The results show that it is possible to allocate wind power so that the frequency of low outputs is substantially reduced, while maintaining the average output at around 30% of nameplate capacity, as compared with the corresponding output of 20% for the present allocation system. We conclude that in a future, fully electrically integrated Europe, geographic allocation can substantially reduce instances of low aggregate output, while impairing little on capacity factor and at the same time providing reduction in of short-term jumps in output.
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| 22. |
- Reichenberg, Lina, 1976, et al.
(författare)
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Tailoring large-scale electricity production from variable renewable energy sources to accommodate baseload generation in Europe
- 2018
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Ingår i: Renewable Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0960-1481 .- 1879-0682. ; 129, s. 334-346
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This work investigates the possibility of combining large-scale penetration (around 50% of annual demand) of variable electricity production (wind and solar power) with baseload generation of electricity (e.g., via nuclear power or coal burning). A new methodology is developed that focuses on renewable resource and variation management in combination with transmission expansion and curtailment of excess electricity generation. Using the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) measure in the objective function, the optimization model targets the residual load and tailors it to fit the baseload generation. Using Europe as an example, the results show that it is possible to tailor the residual load to fit the baseload with only a small sacrifice (∼1%) of output of generation from variable renewable energy sources (VRES). Expansion of the electricity transmission system is an important factor in accommodating baseload generation in systems with a high penetration level of VRES, whereby, for example, 50 GW of transmission capacity opens the way for baseload generation to increase from 20% to 32% of annual demand. The results show that wind power is the main contributor to VRES production, even in the case of exceptionally low future costs for solar PV.
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| 23. |
- Reichenberg, Lina, 1976, et al.
(författare)
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The error induced by using representative periods in capacity expansion models: system cost, total capacity mix and regional capacity mix
- 2024
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Ingår i: Energy Systems. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1868-3975 .- 1868-3967. ; 15:1, s. 215-232
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Capacity Expansion Models (CEMs) are optimization models used for long-term energy planning on national to continental scale. They are typically computationally demanding, thus in need of simplification, where one such simplification is to reduce the temporal representation. This paper investigates how using representative periods to reduce the temporal representation in CEMs distorts results compared to a benchmark model of a full chronological year. The test model is a generic CEM applied to Europe. We test the performance of reduced models at penetration levels of wind and solar of 90%. Three measures for accuracy are used: (i) system cost, (ii) total capacity mix and (iii) regional capacity. We find that: (i) the system cost is well represented (similar to 5% deviation from benchmark) with as few as ten representative days, (ii) the capacity mix is in general fairly well (similar to 20% deviation) represented with 50 or more representative days, and (iii) the regional capacity mix displays large deviations (> 50%) from benchmark for as many as 250 representative days. We conclude that modelers should be aware of the error margins when presenting results on these three aspects.
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| 24. |
- Reichenberg, Lina, 1976, et al.
(författare)
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The marginal system LCOE of variable renewables Evaluating high penetration levels of wind and solar in Europe
- 2018
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Ingår i: Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0360-5442. ; 152, s. 914-924
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The marginal levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for increasing the share of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) is estimated using the electricity investment model greenVRE, which entails a detailed representation of the time dimension to account for variability and variation management. The model is applied to Europe (EU-27 + Norway and Switzerland), which the model divides into ten electricity balance regions and runs with 2920 time-steps The model is applied in a greenfield setting, in which the share of renewables (VRE + Hydro) varies between 0% and 100%. The results show that the system LCOE for VRE increases linearly with the penetration level range of 20%-80%, above which it increases sharply. Systems that have a high penetration of VRE are characterized by using wind power as the major generating technology and having strong expansion of transmission capacity. A sensitivity analysis for the cost of VRE and variation management capacity (storage and transmission) reveals that the point of increase in marginal LCOE is robust under different future scenarios regarding technology costs. We conclude that VRE could constitute the bulk of electricity generation at a reasonable cost, given that there is availability of variation management, especially with respect to transmission. (C) 2018 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 25. |
- Sprei, Frances, 1977, et al.
(författare)
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Motsatspar för att illustrera hållbarhetens mångfald: presentation av del av kursmaterial
- 2016
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Ingår i: KUL2016.
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Hållbar utveckling används och kan tolkas på många olika sätt. I läsmaterialet Hållbar utveckling: historia,definition & ingenjörens roll presenterar vi sex olika motsatspar som ett ramverk för att förstå dennamångfald. Syftet är att ge studenterna en bättre förståelse av debatten men också kunna reflektera kringsina egna ståndpunkter.
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| 26. |
- Andersson, David, 1979, et al.
(författare)
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DN Debatt: LRF och Svenskt flyg svarar inte om klimatmålen
- 2015
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Ingår i: Dagens Nyheter. - 1101-2447.
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Tidskriftsartikel (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
- Sammantaget ser vi inget i motdebattörernas argument som talar emot att införa styrmedel, till exempel konsumtionsskatter, inom dessa områden där inga stora tekniska lösningar finns i sikte, skriver 14 miljö- och energiforskare i slutrepliken till sin text om flyg- och köttskatt (26/2).
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| 27. |
- Andersson, David, 1979, et al.
(författare)
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Nu krävs kraftfulla åtgärder mot nötkött och flygresor
- 2015
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Ingår i: Dagens Nyheter. - 1101-2447. ; 2015-02-27
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Svenskarnas globala utsläpp från köttkonsumtion och flygresor motsvarar hälften av de totala utsläppen på hemmaplan. I vår rapport till Naturvårdsverket föreslår vi tydliga styrmedel – som nya skatter – för att begränsa konsumtionen på dessa områden, skriver 14 miljö- och energiforskare.
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| 28. |
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| 29. |
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| 30. |
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| 31. |
- Brunner, Florentine, 1991, et al.
(författare)
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Carbon Label at a University Restaurant – Label Implementation and Evaluation
- 2018
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Ingår i: Ecological Economics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0921-8009. ; 146, s. 658-667
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Changes in human diets hold significant greenhouse gas emissions mitigation potential. In this paper, we use a field experiment to analyze the effects of implementing a label with greenhouse gas emission information for each dish at a restaurant. The traffic-light colored label was implemented in a student catering facility with 300–600 servings every day, and covered all seven dishes on offer. Individual level sales data including an anonymous identification number, gender, and age was collected both during the label phase and during a five-week control phase prior to the introduction of the label. We found that sales of green labeled (low emission) meat dishes increased by 11.5% compared to the control phase, whereas sales of red labeled meat dishes were reduced by 4.8%. Although the label had an effect on consumer behavior, emissions decreased modestly by 3.6%. We did not find evidence for different reactions to the label based on gender or age. © 2017 Elsevier B.V.
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| 32. |
- Bryngelsson, David, 1981, et al.
(författare)
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How can the EU climate targets be met? : A combined analysis of technological and demand-side changes in food and agriculture
- 2016
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Ingår i: Food Policy. - : Elsevier Ltd. - 0306-9192 .- 1873-5657. ; 59, s. 152-164
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To meet the 2 °C climate target, deep cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will be required for carbon dioxide from fossil fuels but, most likely, also for methane and nitrous oxide from agriculture and other sources. However, relatively little is known about the GHG mitigation potential in agriculture, in particular with respect to the combined effects of technological advancements and dietary changes. Here, we estimate the extent to which changes in technology and demand can reduce Swedish food-related GHG emissions necessary for meeting EU climate targets. This analysis is based on a detailed representation of the food and agriculture system, using 30 different food items. We find that food-related methane and nitrous oxide emissions can be reduced enough to meet the EU 2050 climate targets. Technologically, agriculture can improve in productivity and through implementation of specific mitigation measures. Under optimistic assumptions, these developments could cut current food-related methane and nitrous oxide emissions by nearly 50%. However, also dietary changes will almost certainly be necessary. Large reductions, by 50% or more, in ruminant meat (beef and mutton) consumption are, most likely, unavoidable if the EU targets are to be met. In contrast, continued high per-capita consumption of pork and poultry meat or dairy products might be accommodated within the climate targets. High dairy consumption, however, is only compatible with the targets if there are substantial advances in technology. Reducing food waste plays a minor role for meeting the climate targets, lowering emissions only by an additional 1–3%. © 2016 The Authors
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| 33. |
- Bryngelsson, David, 1981, et al.
(författare)
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How Do Dietary Choices Influence the Energy-System Cost of Stabilizing the Climate?
- 2017
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Ingår i: Energies. - : MDPI AG. - 1996-1073 .- 1996-1073. ; 10:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We investigate how different global dietary scenarios affect the constraints on, and costs of, transforming the energy system to reach a global temperature stabilization limit of 2 degrees C above the pre-industrial level. A global food and agriculture model, World Food Supply Model (WOFSUM), is used to create three dietary scenarios and to calculate the CH4 and N2O emissions resulting from their respective food-supply chains. The diets are: (i) a reference diet based on current trends; (ii) a diet with high (reference-level) meat consumption, but without ruminant products (i.e., no beef, lamb, or dairy, only pork and poultry); and (iii) a vegan diet. The estimated CH4 and N2O emissions from food production are fed into a coupled energy and climate-system optimization model to quantify the energy system implications of the different dietary scenarios, given a 2 degrees C target. The results indicate that a phase-out of ruminant products substantially increases the emission space for CO2 by about 250 GtC which reduces the necessary pace of the energy system transition and cuts the net present value energy-system mitigation costs by 25%, for staying below 2 degrees C. Importantly, the additional cost savings with a vegan diet--beyond those achieved with a phase-out of ruminant products--are marginal (only one additional percentage point). This means that a general reduction of meat consumption is a far less effective strategy for meeting the 2 degrees C target than a reduction of beef and dairy consumption.
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| 34. |
- Bryngelsson, David, 1981, et al.
(författare)
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Scenarier för klimatpåverkan från matkonsumtionen 2050
- 2013
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Denna rapport är framtagen inom ramen för Mistra Urban Futures-projektet WISE - Well-being In Sustainable cities, och mer specifikt inom delprojektet Klimatomställning Göteborg: potentialer och livskvalitetseffekter. Göteborgarnas klimatpåverkan idag och potentialer för framtiden beräknas avseende boende, transporter, mat, etc. Detta kan ge en samlad bild av möjligheterna att nå klimatmålen. En livskvalitetskoppling är att denna överblick kan ge underlag för en samhällsdiskussion om vilka vägar för att uppnå klimatmålen som människor föredrar. Syftet med denna underlagsrapport är att beräkna potentialer för utsläppsminskningar till 2050 från svenskarnas matkonsumtion. Beräkningar har gjorts för år 2006, samt för nio alternativa scenarier för 2050.
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| 35. |
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| 36. |
- Bälter, Katarina, et al.
(författare)
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Is a diet low in greenhouse gas emissions a nutritious diet? : - Analyses of self-selected diets in the LifeGene study
- 2017
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Ingår i: Archives of Public Health. - : BioMed Central Ltd.. - 0778-7367 .- 2049-3258. ; 75:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Climate change is an urgent global issue and the food sector is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE). Here we study if a diet low in GHGE could be a nutritious diet compared to the Nordic Nutrition Recommendations (NNR). Methods: The environmental impact of foods from Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) data was linked to a food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) filled out by 5,364 participants in the Swedish LifeGene study. Thereafter, we calculated the daily emission of CO2 equivalents (CO2e) as well as the intake of selected nutrients associated with vegetables, fruits, meat and dairy products. The CO2e was divided into quartiles were quartile 1 corresponds to a diet generating the lowest CO2e, and quartile 4 corresponds to a diet with the highest CO2e. Results: The overall diet-related emission was 4.7kg CO2e/day and person, corresponding to 1.7 ton CO2e/year. In general, there were only small differences in nutrient intake between groups of varying levels of CO2e, regardless if the intake was analyzed as absolute intake, energy percent or as nutrient density. Moreover, adherence to NNR was high for the group with the lowest CO2e, except for saturated fat where the intake was higher than recommended for all CO2e groups. On the other hand, only the group with the lowest CO2e fulfilled recommended intake of fiber. However, none of the CO2e groups reached the recommended intake of folate and vitamin D. Conclusions: Here we show that a self-selected diet low in CO2e provides comparable intake of nutrients as a diet high in in CO2e.
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| 37. |
- Cederberg, Christel, 1959, et al.
(författare)
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Trends in greenhouse gas emissions from consumption and production of animal food products - implications for long-term climate targets
- 2013
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Ingår i: Animal. - 1751-7311 .- 1751-732X. ; 7:2, s. 330-340
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To analyse trends in greenhouse (GHG) emissions from production and consumption of animal products in Sweden, life-cycle emissions were calculated for the average production of pork, chicken meat, beef, dairy and eggs in 1990 and 2005. The calculated average emissions were used together with food consumption statistics and literature data on imported products to estimate trends in per capita emissions from animal food consumption. Total life cycle emissions from the Swedish livestock production were around 8.5 Mt carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e) in 1990 and emissions decreased to 7.3 Mt CO2e in 2005 (14% reduction). Around two-thirds of the emission cut was explained by more efficient production (less GHG emission per product unit) and one third was due to a reduced animal production. The average GHG emissions per product unit until the farm-gate were reduced by 20% for dairy, 15% for pork and 23% for chicken meat, unchanged for eggs and increased by 10% for beef. A larger share of the average beef was produced from suckler cows in cow-calf systems in 2005 due to the decreasing dairy cow herd, which explains the increased emissions for the average beef in 2005. The overall emissions cuts from the livestock sector were a result of several measures taken in farm production, for example increased dairy yield per cow, lowered use of synthetic nitrogen fertilisers in grasslands, reduced losses of ammonia from manure and a switch to biofuels for heating in chicken houses.In contrast to production, total GHG emissions from the Swedish consumption of animal products increased by around 22% between 1990 and 2005. This was explained by strong growth in meat consumption based mainly on imports, where growth in beef consumption especially was responsible for most emission increase over the 15-year period. Swedish GHG emissions caused by consumption of animal products reached around 1.1 tonnes CO2e per capita in 2005.The emission cuts necessary for meeting a global temperature-increase target of 2 degrees might imply a severe constraint on the long-term global consumption of animal food. Due to the relatively limited potential for reducing food-related emissions by higher productivity and technological means, structural changes in food consumption towards less emission intensive food might be required for meeting the 2-degree target.
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| 38. |
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| 39. |
- Gosens, Jorrit, 1980, et al.
(författare)
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Faster market growth of wind and PV in late adopters due to global experience build-up
- 2017
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Ingår i: Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0360-5442. ; 131, s. 267-278
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Different perspectives on the diffusion of technologies have suggested that market growth of technologies in late adopter countries may be either slower (because the technology is adopted later in areas where the technology has poorer economic performance) or faster (because global experience has resulted in maturation and improved performance of the technology). We compare the pace of market growth of wind and PV power in early and late adopters. We use panel data analysis on a database spanning all countries of the world, and years 1980–2014. We find that late adopters manage to access the global experience with these technologies, and utilize it to accelerate domestic market growth. Despite their lower GDP, late adopter countries have managed market growth for wind power that was up to 4.7 times faster than it was in early adopters, and up to 16 times faster for PV. These results suggest increased development efforts of novel clean-tech may kick-start rapid global deployment. Beneficial effects are less for very late adopters and less developed economies, signalling attention is needed for these in global climate change mitigation efforts.
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| 40. |
- Gosens, Jorrit, 1980, et al.
(författare)
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Global innovation system life-cycles: country-level entry, innovation and leadership in wind turbine manufacturing
- 2017
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Ingår i: The 8th International Sustainability Transitions Conference.
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The greatest prospects for survival and industry leadership in a new growth industry largely accrues to early entrants. This has been described at the level of the firm in the literature on industry lifecycles, and at the level of countries in the literature on lead markets. Here, we perform a case study of the global wind turbine manufacturing industry at both country and firm level. We find that turbine markets were indeed dominated by the earliest of manufacturing firms for some time, but that waves of new entrants from the second half the nineties onwards have taken increasingly large shares of the market. These successful late entrant firms, however, did all originate from early entrant or early follower countries. Late entrants from late adopter countries have been altogether unsuccessful. It appears that the accumulated localized experience in early adopter countries provides a beneficial development environment for domestic manufacturers, in early as well as later phases of global industry development.
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| 41. |
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| 42. |
- Hedenus, Fredrik, 1976, et al.
(författare)
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A Critical Assessment of Energy - economy - climate Models for Policy Analysis
- 2013
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Ingår i: Journal of Applied Economics and Business Research. - 1927-033X. ; 3:2, s. 118-132
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Energy-economy-climate models are used extensively in the policy debate to address issues on energy planning and climate mitigation scenarios. We present an overview of types of models commonly used in policy processes, and we analyze some of the main mechanisms in these models. For example, parameterization of aspects such as technology diffusion and intangible and transaction costs may have great importance for the results and the dynamics of the model. We also find that model comparison papers tend to offer little qualitative insight into the effect of different model approaches and mechanisms. Finally, an extensive sensitivity analysis and a skilled modeling team are of key importance for the usefulness of these kinds of models as policy input.
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| 43. |
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| 44. |
- Hedenus, Fredrik, 1976, et al.
(författare)
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Argumentera i sak – förtal av forskare är ovärdigt
- 2019
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Ingår i: Göteborgsposten. - 1103-9345. ; , s. 5-6
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Tidskriftsartikel (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
- Forskaren Stefan Wirsenius har grund för sina uttalanden om ekologiskt jordbruk och klimatet. Kritiken av hans forskningsresultat liknar förtal, skriver Jan Petter Hansen och Fredrik Hedenus, Chalmers.
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| 45. |
- Hedenus, Fredrik, 1976, et al.
(författare)
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Bioenergy plantations or long-term carbon sinks? – A model based analysis
- 2009
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Ingår i: Biomass and Bioenergy. - 1873-2909 .- 0961-9534. ; :33, s. 1693-1702
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In order to mitigate climate change bio-productive land may be used mainly in two ways:afforestation with long-rotation forests with the primary aim to act as carbon sinks, andshort-rotation forests that are used for energy purposes and thereby replace fossil fuels.Under an ambitious climate target, land that may be used for both bioenergy plantationsand long-rotation forests, are likely to be scarce, and thereby competition between longrotationforests and bioenergy plantations can be expected. The goal of the study is toanalyze the cost-effectiveness of bioenergy plantations versus long-rotations forests aimedat capturing and storing carbon. The study is performed by solving and analyzing a linearoptimization model that links the energy system, an afforestation sector and the pulp andtimber market. Many earlier studies tend to suggest that long-rotation forests offer lowercosts per ton of CO2 avoided. Our study, however, shows that long-rotation forests for thepurpose of carbon sequestration will not be cost-effective in the long run under a stringentclimate policy. Thus, economic efficiency considerations tend to support short-rotationplantations for high carbon prices. The reason for this is that scarcity of land increases theopportunity cost of land, a feature which is generally not captured in static near-termanalysis, but it is captured in a dynamic model like ours. For less stringent carbon targetslong-rotation forests, that are harvested and sold as timber are cost-effective duringa transient phase.
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| 46. |
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| 47. |
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| 48. |
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| 49. |
- Hedenus, Fredrik, 1976, et al.
(författare)
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Cost-effective energy carriers for transport - the role of the energy supply system in a carbon-constrained world
- 2010
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Ingår i: International Journal of Hydrogen Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0360-3199. ; 35:10, s. 4638-4651
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The aim of this study is to examine how the options for producing electricity, fuels, and heat in a carbon-constrained world affect the cost-effectiveness of a range of fuels and propulsion technologies in the transportation sector. GET 7.0, a global energy system model with five end-use sectors, is used for the analysis. We find that an energy system dominated by either by solar or nuclear tends to make biofuels in plug-in hybrids cost-effective. If coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS) dominates the energy system, hydrogen cars, rather than plug-in hybrids tend to become cost-effective. Performing a Monte Carlo simulation, we then show that the general features of our results hold for a wide range of assumptions for the costs of vehicle propulsion technologies (e.g., batteries and fuel cells). However, sufficiently large changes in say the battery costs may overturn the impact of changes in the energy supply system, so that plug-in hybrid vehicles become cost effective even coal with CCS dominate the energy supply. Thus, analyses of future energy carriers and propulsion technologies need to consider developments in the energy supply system.
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| 50. |
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