| 1. |
- Clark, Andrew G., et al.
(författare)
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Evolution of genes and genomes on the Drosophila phylogeny
- 2007
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 450:7167, s. 203-218
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Comparative analysis of multiple genomes in a phylogenetic framework dramatically improves the precision and sensitivity of evolutionary inference, producing more robust results than single-genome analyses can provide. The genomes of 12 Drosophila species, ten of which are presented here for the first time (sechellia, simulans, yakuba, erecta, ananassae, persimilis, willistoni, mojavensis, virilis and grimshawi), illustrate how rates and patterns of sequence divergence across taxa can illuminate evolutionary processes on a genomic scale. These genome sequences augment the formidable genetic tools that have made Drosophila melanogaster a pre-eminent model for animal genetics, and will further catalyse fundamental research on mechanisms of development, cell biology, genetics, disease, neurobiology, behaviour, physiology and evolution. Despite remarkable similarities among these Drosophila species, we identified many putatively non-neutral changes in protein-coding genes, non-coding RNA genes, and cis-regulatory regions. These may prove to underlie differences in the ecology and behaviour of these diverse species.
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| 2. |
- Allen, Judy R. M., et al.
(författare)
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Last glacial vegetation of northern Eurasia
- 2010
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Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-3791. ; 29:19-20, s. 2604-2618
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In order to investigate the potential role of vegetation changes in megafaunal extinctions during the later part of the last glacial stage and early Holocene (42-10 ka BP), the palaeovegetation of northern Eurasia and Alaska was simulated using the LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model. Palaeoclimatic driving data were derived from simulations made for 22 time slices using the Hadley Centre Unified Model. Modelled annual net primary productivity (aNPP) of a series of plant functional types (PFTs) is mapped for selected time slices and summarised for major geographical regions for all time slices. Strong canonical correlations are demonstrated between model outputs and pollen data compiled for the same period and region. Simulated aNPP values, especially for tree PFTs and for a mesophilous herb PFT, provide evidence of the structure and productivity of last glacial vegetation. The mesophilous herb PFT aNPP is higher in many areas during the glacial than at present or during the early Holocene. Glacial stage vegetation, whilst open and largely treeless in much of Europe, thus had a higher capacity to support large vertebrate herbivore populations than did early Holocene vegetation. A marked and rapid decrease in aNPP of mesophilous herbs began shortly after the Last Glacial Maximum, especially in western Eurasia. This is likely implicated in extinction of several large herbivorous mammals during the latter part of the glacial stage and the transition to the Holocene. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 3. |
- Callaghan, Terry V., et al.
(författare)
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Arctic tundra and Polar Desert Ecosystems
- 2005
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Ingår i: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. - 9780521865098 - 0521865093
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 4. |
- Callaghan, Terry V., et al.
(författare)
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Biodiversity, distributions and adaptations of arctic species in the context of environmental change
- 2004
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Ingår i: Ambio: a Journal of Human Environment. - : Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. - 0044-7447. ; 33:7, s. 404-417
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- The individual of a species is the basic unit which responds to climate and UV-B changes, and it responds over a wide range of time scales. The diversity of animal, plant and microbial species appears to be low in the Arctic, and decreases from the boreal forests to the polar deserts of the extreme North but primitive species are particularly abundant. This latitudinal decline is associated with an increase in super-dominant species that occupy a wide range of habitats. Climate warming is expected to reduce the abundance and restrict the ranges of such species and to affect species at their northern range boundaries more than in the South: some Arctic animal and plant specialists could face extinction. Species most likely to expand into tundra are boreal species that currently exist as outlier populations in the Arctic. Many plant species have characteristics that allow them to survive short snow-free growing seasons, low solar angles, permafrost and low soil temperatures, low nutrient availability and physical disturbance. Many of these characteristics are likely to limit species responses to climate warming, but mainly because of poor competitive ability compared with potential immigrant species. Terrestrial Arctic animals possess many adaptations that enable them to persist under a wide range of temperatures in the Arctic. Many escape unfavorable weather and resource shortage by winter dormancy or by migration. The biotic environment of Arctic animal species is relatively simple with few enemies, competitors, diseases, parasites and available food resources. Terrestrial Arctic animals are likely to be most vulnerable to warmer and drier summers, climatic changes that interfere with migration routes and staging areas, altered snow conditions and freeze-thaw cycles in winter, climate-induced disruption of the seasonal timing of reproduction and development, and influx of new competitors, predators, parasites and diseases. Arctic microorganisms are also well adapted to the Arctics climate: some can metabolize at temperatures down to -39degreesC. Cyanobacteria and algae have a wide range of adaptive strategies that allow them to avoid, or at least minimize UV injury. Microorganisms can tolerate most environmental conditions and they have short generation times which can facilitate rapid adaptation to new environments. In contrast, Arctic plant and animal species are very likely to change their distributions rather than evolve significantly in response to warming.
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| 5. |
- Callaghan, Terry V., et al.
(författare)
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Climate Change and UV-B Impacts on Arctic Tundra and Polar Desert Ecosystems: Key Findings and Extended Summaries
- 2004
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Ingår i: Ambio: a Journal of Human Environment. - 0044-7447. ; 33:7, s. 386-392
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Arctic has become an important region in which to assess the impacts of current climate variability and amplification of projected global warming. This is because i) the Arctic has experienced considerable warming in recent decades (an average of about 3°C and between 4° and 5°C over much of the landmass); i) climate projections suggest a continuation of the warming trend with an increase in mean annual temperatures of 4–5°C by 2080; ii) recent warming is already impacting the environment and economy of the Arctic and these impacts are expected to increase and affect also life style, culture and ecosystems; and iv) changes occurring in the Arctic are likely to affect other regions of the Earth, for example changes in snow, vegetation and sea ice are likely to affect the energy balance and ocean circulation at regional and even global scales (Chapter 1 in ref. 1). Responding to the urgent need to understand and project impacts of changes in climate and UV-B radiation on many facets of the Arctic, the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) (1) undertook a four-year study. Part of this study (1–10) assessed the impacts of changes in climate and UV-B radiation on Arctic terrestrial ecosystems, both those changes already occurring and those likely to occur in the future. Here, we present the key findings of the assessment of climate change impacts on tundra and polar desert ecosystems, and xtended summaries of its components.
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| 6. |
- Callaghan, Terry V., et al.
(författare)
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Effects of changes in climate on landscape and regional processes, and feedbacks to the climate system
- 2004
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Ingår i: Ambio: a Journal of Human Environment. - 0044-7447. ; 33:7, s. 459-468
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Biological and physical processes in the Arctic system operate at various temporal and spatial scales to impact large-scale feedbacks and interactions with the earth system. There are four main potential feedback mechanisms between the impacts of climate change on the Arctic and the global climate system: albedo, greenhouse gas emissions or uptake by ecosystems, greenhouse gas emissions from methane hydrates, and increased freshwater fluxes that could affect the thermohaline circulation. All these feedbacks are controlled to some extent by changes in ecosystem distribution and character and particularly by large-scale movement of vegetation zones. Indications from a few, full annual measurements of CO2 fluxes are that currently the source areas exceed sink areas in geographical distribution. The little available information on CH4 sources indicates that emissions at the landscape level are of great importance for the total greenhouse balance of the circumpolar North. Energy and water balances of Arctic landscapes are also important feedback mechanisms in a changing climate. Increasing density and spatial expansion of vegetation will cause a lowering of the albedo and more energy to be absorbed on the ground. This effect is likely to exceed the negative feedback of increased C sequestration in greater primary productivity resulting from the displacements of areas of polar desert by tundra, and areas of tundra by forest. The degradation of permafrost has complex consequences for trace gas dynamics. In areas of discontinuous permafrost, warming, will lead to a complete loss of the permafrost. Depending on local hydrological conditions this may in turn lead to a wetting or drying of the environment with subsequent implications for greenhouse gas fluxes. Overall, the complex interactions between processes contributing to feedbacks, variability over time and space in these processes, and insufficient data have generated considerable uncertainties in estimating the net effects of climate change on terrestrial feedbacks to the climate system. This uncertainty applies to magnitude, and even direction of some of the feedbacks.
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| 7. |
- Callaghan, Terry V., et al.
(författare)
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Effects on the structure of arctic ecosystems in the short- and long-term perspectives
- 2004
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Ingår i: Ambio: a Journal of Human Environment. - : Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. - 0044-7447. ; 33:7, s. 436-447
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Species individualistic responses to warming and increased UV-B radiation are moderated by the responses of neighbors within communities, and trophic interactions within ecosystems. All of these responses lead to changes in ecosystem structure. Experimental manipulation of environmental factors expected to change at high latitudes showed that summer warming of tundra vegetation has generally led to smaller changes than fertilizer addition. Some of the factors manipulated have strong effects on the structure of Arctic ecosystems but the effects vary regionally, with the greatest response of plant and invertebrate communities being observed at the coldest locations. Arctic invertebrate communities are very likely to respond rapidly to warming whereas microbial biomass and nutrient stocks are more stable. Experimentally enhanced UV-B radiation altered the community composition of gram-negative bacteria and fungi, but not that of plants. Increased plant productivity due to warmer summers may dominate food-web dynamics. Trophic interactions of tundra and sub-Arctic forest plant-based food webs are centered on a few dominant animal species which often have cyclic population fluctuations that lead to extremely high peak abundances in some years. Population cycles of small rodents and insect defoliators such as the autumn moth affect the structure and diversity of tundra and forest-tundra vegetation and the viability of a number of specialist predators and parasites. Ice crusting in warmer winters is likely to reduce the accessibility of plant food to lemmings, while deep snow may protect them from snow-surface predators. In Fennoscandia, there is evidence already for a pronounced shift in small rodent community structure and dynamics that have resulted in a decline of predators that specialize in feeding on small rodents. Climate is also likely to alter the role of insect pests in the birch forest system: warmer winters may increase survival of eggs and expand the range of the insects. Insects that harass reindeer in the summer are also likely to become more widespread, abundant and active during warmer summers while refuges for reindeer/caribou on glaciers and late snow patches will probably disappear.
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| 8. |
- Callaghan, Terry V., et al.
(författare)
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Past changes in arctic terrestrial ecosystems, climate and UV radiation
- 2004
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Ingår i: Ambio: a Journal of Human Environment. - 0044-7447. ; 33:7, s. 398-403
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- At the last glacial maximum, vast ice sheets covered many continental areas. The beds of some shallow seas were exposed thereby connecting previously separated landmasses. Although some areas were ice-free and supported a flora and fauna, mean annual temperatures were 10-13degreesC colder than during the Holocene. Within a few millennia of the glacial maximum, deglaciation started, characterized by a series of climatic fluctuations between about 18 000 and 11 400 years ago. Following the general thermal maximum in the Holocene, there has been a modest overall cooling trend, superimposed upon which have been a series of millennial and centennial fluctuations in climate such as the "Little Ice Age spanning approximately the late 13th to early 19th centuries. Throughout the climatic fluctuations of the last 150 000 years, Arctic ecosystems and biota have been close to their minimum extent within the most recent 10 000 years. They suffered loss of diversity as a result of extinctions during the most recent large-magnitude rapid global warming at the end of the last glacial stage. Consequently, Arctic ecosystems and biota such as large vertebrates are already under pressure and are particularly vulnerable to current and projected future global warming. Evidence from the past indicates that the treeline will very as it probably advance, perhaps rapidly, into tundra areas, a it did during the early Holocene, reducing the extent of tundra and increasing the risk of species extinction. Species will very probably extend their ranges northwards, displacing Arctic species as in the past. However, unlike the early Holocene, when lower relative sea level allowed a belt of tundra to persist around at least some parts of the Arctic basin when treelines advanced to the present coast, sea level is very likely to rise in future, further restricting the area of tundra and other treeless Arctic ecosystems. The negative response of current Arctic ecosystems to global climatic conditions that are apparently without precedent during the Pleistocene is likely to be considerable, particularly as their exposure to co-occurring environmental changes (such as enhanced levels of UV-B, deposition of nitrogen compounds from the atmosphere, heavy metal and acidic pollution, radioactive contamination, increased habitat fragmentation) is also without precedent.
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| 9. |
- Callaghan, Terry V., et al.
(författare)
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Rationale, concepts and approach to the assessment
- 2004
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Ingår i: Ambio: a Journal of Human Environment. - 0044-7447. ; 33:7, s. 393-397
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A general recognition that the Arctic will amplify global climate warming, that UV-B radiation may continue to increase there because of possible delays in the repair of stratospheric ozone, and that the Arctic environment and its peoples are likely to be particularly susceptible to such environmental changes stimulated an international assessment of climate change impacts. The Arctic Climate Impacts Assessment (ACIA) is a four-year study, culminating in publication of a major scientific report (1) as well as other products. In this paper and those following in this Ambio Special Issue, we present the findings of the section of the report that focuses on terrestrial ecosystems of the Arctic, from the treeline ecotone to the polar deserts. The Arctic is generally recognized as a treeless wilderness with cold winters and cool summers. However, definitions of the southern boundary vary according to environmental, geographical or political biases. This paper and the assessment in the following papers of this Ambio Special Issue focus on biota (plants, animals and microorganisms) and processes in the region beyond the northern limit of the closed forest (the taiga), but we also include processes south of this boundary that affect ecosystems in the Arctic. Examples are overwintering periods of migratory animals spent in the south and the regulation of the latitudinal treeline. The geographical area we have defined as the current Arctic is the area we use for developing scenarios of future impacts: Our geographical area of interest will not decrease under a scenario of the replacement of current Arctic tundra by boreal forests.
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| 10. |
- Callaghan, Terry V., et al.
(författare)
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Responses to projected changes in climate and UV-B at the species level
- 2004
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Ingår i: Ambio: a Journal of Human Environment. - : Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. - 0044-7447. ; 33:7, s. 418-435
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Environmental manipulation experiments showed that species respond individualistically to each environmental-change variable. The greatest responses of plants were generally to nutrient, particularly nitrogen, addition. Summer warming experiments showed that woody plant responses were dominant and that mosses and lichens became less abundant. Responses to warming were controlled by moisture availability and snow cover. Many invertebrates increased population growth in response to summer warming, as long as desiccation was not induced. CO2 and UV-B enrichment experiments showed that plant and animal responses were small. However, some microorganisms and species of fungi were sensitive to increased UV-B and some intensive mutagenic actions could, perhaps, lead to unexpected epidemic outbreaks. Tundra soil heating, CO 2 enrichment and amendment with mineral nutrients generally accelerated microbial activity. Algae are likely to dominate cyanobacteria in milder climates. Expected increases in winter freeze-thaw cycles leading to ice-crust formation are likely to severely reduce winter survival rate and disrupt the population dynamics of many terrestrial animals. A deeper snow cover is likely to restrict access to winter pastures by reindeer/caribou and their ability to flee from predators while any earlier onset of the snow-free period is likely to stimulate increased plant growth. Initial species responses to climate change might occur at the sub-species level: an Arctic plant or animal species with high genetic/racial diversity has proved an ability to adapt to different environmental conditions in the past and is likely to do so also in the future. Indigenous knowledge, air photographs, satellite images and monitoring show that changes in the distributions of some species are already occurring: Arctic vegetation is becoming more shrubby and more productive, there have been recent changes in the ranges of caribou, and "new" species of insects and birds previously associated with areas south of the treeline have been recorded. In contrast, almost all Arctic breeding bird species are declining and models predict further quite dramatic reductions of the populations of tundra birds due to warming. Species-climate response surface models predict potential future ranges of current Arctic species that are often markedly reduced and displaced northwards in response to warming. In contrast, invertebrates and microorganisms are very likely to quickly expand their ranges northwards into the Arctic.
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| 11. |
- Callaghan, Terry V., et al.
(författare)
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Synthesis of effects in four Arctic subregions
- 2004
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Ingår i: Ambio: a Journal of Human Environment. - : Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. - 0044-7447. ; 33:7, s. 469-473
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- An assessment of impacts on Arctic terrestrial ecosystems has emphasized geographical variability in responses of species and ecosystems to environmental change. This variability is usually associated with north-south gradients in climate, biodiversity, vegetation zones, and ecosystem structure and function. It is clear, however, that significant east-west variability in environment, ecosystem structure and function, environmental history, and recent climate variability is also important. Some areas have cooled while others have become warmer. Also, east-west differences between geographical barriers of oceans, archipelagos and mountains have contributed significantly in the past to the ability of species and vegetation zones to relocate in response to climate changes, and they have created the isolation necessary for genetic differentiation of populations and biodiversity hot-spots to occur. These barriers will also affect the ability of species to relocate during projected future warming. To include this east-west variability and also to strike a balance between overgeneralization and overspecialization, the ACIA identified four major sub regions based on large-scale differences in weather and climate-shaping factors. Drawing on information, mostly model output that can be related to the four ACIA subregions, it is evident that geographical barriers to species re-location, particularly the distribution of landmasses and separation by seas, will affect the northwards shift in vegetation zones. The geographical constraints-or facilitation-of northward movement of vegetation zones will affect the future storage and release of carbon, and the exchange of energy and water between biosphere and atmosphere. In addition, differences in the ability of vegetation zones to re-locate will affect the biodiversity associated with each zone while the number of species threatened by climate change varies greatly between subregions with a significant hot-spot in Beringia. Overall, the subregional synthesis demonstrates the difficulty of generalizing projections of responses of ecosystem structure and function species loss, and biospheric feedbacks to the climate system for the whole Arctic region and implies a need for a far greater understanding of the spatial variability in the responses of terrestrial arctic ecosystems to climate change.
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| 12. |
- Callaghan, Terry V., et al.
(författare)
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Uncertainties and recommendations
- 2004
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Ingår i: Ambio: a Journal of Human Environment. - : Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. - 0044-7447. ; 33:7, s. 474-479
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- An assessment of the impacts of changes in climate and UV-B radiation on Arctic terrestrial ecosystems, made within the Arctic Climate Impacts Assessment (ACIA), highlighted the profound implications of projected warming in particular for future ecosystem services, biodiversity and feedbacks to climate. However, although our current understanding of ecological processes and changes driven by climate and UV-B is strong in some geographical areas and in some disciplines, it is weak in others. Even though recently the strength of our predictions has increased dramatically with increased research effort in the Arctic and the introduction of new technologies, our current understanding is still constrained by various uncertainties. The assessment is based on a range of approaches that each have uncertainties, and on data sets that are often far from complete. Uncertainties arise from methodologies and conceptual frameworks, from unpredictable surprises, from lack of validation of models, and from the use of particular scenarios, rather than predictions, of future greenhouse gas emissions and climates. Recommendations to reduce the uncertainties are wide-ranging and relate to all disciplines within the assessment. However, a repeated theme is the critical importance of achieving an adequate spatial and long-term coverage of experiments, observations and monitoring of environmental changes and their impacts throughout the sparsely populated and remote region that is the Arctic.
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| 13. |
- Felde, Vivian A., et al.
(författare)
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Compositional turnover and variation in Eemian pollen sequences in Europe
- 2020
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Ingår i: Vegetation History and Archaeobotany. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0939-6314 .- 1617-6278. ; 29:1, s. 101-109
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Eemian interglacial represents a natural experiment on how past vegetation with negligible human impact responded to amplified temperature changes compared to the Holocene. Here, we assemble 47 carefully selected Eemian pollen sequences from Europe to explore geographical patterns of (1) total compositional turnover and total variation for each sequence and (2) stratigraphical turnover between samples within each sequence using detrended canonical correspondence analysis, multivariate regression trees, and principal curves. Our synthesis shows that turnover and variation are highest in central Europe (47-55 degrees N), low in southern Europe (south of 45 degrees N), and lowest in the north (above 60 degrees N). These results provide a basis for developing hypotheses about causes of vegetation change during the Eemian and their possible drivers.
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| 14. |
- Felton, Adam, et al.
(författare)
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Projecting impacts of anthropogenic climatic change on the bird communities of southern Swedish spruce monocultures : will the species poor get poorer?
- 2014
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Ingår i: Ornis Fennica. - : University of Helsinki. - 0030-5685. ; 91:1, s. 1-13
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The potential impact of climatic change on bird species' distributions in Europe was recently modeled for several scenarios of projected late 21st century climate. The results indicate mean range shifts of hundreds of kilometres north for many of European bird species. Here we consider the implications from such distributional shifts for the bird communities of Norway spruce (Picea abies) monocultures in southern Sweden, a forest type likely to remain prevalent due to forestry, despite climate change. Our assessment led us to three key findings. First, the monocultures offer suitable habitat to only two bird species projected to extend their breeding distribution northwards into southern Sweden this century. Second, species richness was projected to decline overall, which would accentuate the depauperate nature of these stands. Third, all conifer-associated arboreal granivores and three of four conifer-associated arboreal insectivores were projected not to occur, reducing both the functional richness and functional redundancy. We discuss caveats related to our approach, including the potential for bioclimatic projections - used in this study - to be hampered by the artificial retention of dominant vegetation. We also discuss the implications of our results for avian biodiversity in what is today the most prevalent forest type in southern Sweden and in many other regions of Europe.
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| 15. |
- Goni, Maria Fernanda Sanchez, et al.
(författare)
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The ACER pollen and charcoal database : a global resource to document vegetation and fire response to abrupt climate changes during the last glacial period
- 2017
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Ingår i: Earth System Science Data. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1866-3508 .- 1866-3516. ; 9:2, s. 679-695
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Quaternary records provide an opportunity to examine the nature of the vegetation and fire responses to rapid past climate changes comparable in velocity and magnitude to those expected in the 21st-century. The best documented examples of rapid climate change in the past are the warming events associated with the Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles during the last glacial period, which were sufficiently large to have had a potential feedback through changes in albedo and greenhouse gas emissions on climate. Previous reconstructions of vegetation and fire changes during the D-O cycles used independently constructed age models, making it difficult to compare the changes between different sites and regions. Here, we present the ACER (Abrupt Climate Changes and Environmental Responses) global database, which includes 93 pollen records from the last glacial period (73-15 ka) with a temporal resolution better than 1000 years, 32 of which also provide charcoal records. A harmonized and consistent chronology based on radiometric dating (C-14, U-234/Th-230, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL), Ar-40/Ar-39-dated tephra layers) has been constructed for 86 of these records, although in some cases additional information was derived using common control points based on event stratigraphy. The ACER database compiles metadata including geospatial and dating information, pollen and charcoal counts, and pollen percentages of the characteristic biomes and is archived in Microsoft Access (TM) at https://doi. org/10.1594/PANGAEA. 870867.
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| 16. |
- Huntley, Brian, et al.
(författare)
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Climatic Disequilibrium Threatens Conservation Priority Forests
- 2018
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Ingår i: Conservation Letters. - : Wiley. - 1755-263X. ; 11:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We test the hypothesis that climatic changes since 1800 have resulted in unrealized potential vegetation changes that represent a "climatic debt" for many ecosystems. Caledonian pinewoods, an EU priority forest type, are used as a model system to explore potential impacts of two centuries of climatic change upon sites of conservation importance and surrounding landscapes. Using methods that estimate topographic microclimate, current and preindustrial climates were estimated for 50 m grid cells and simulations made using a dynamic vegetation model. Core Caledonian pinewood areas are now less suitable for growth of pine and more favorable for oak than in 1800, whereas landscapes as a whole are on average more favorable for both. The most favorable areas for pine are now mainly outside areas designated to conserve historical pinewoods. A paradigm shift is needed in formulating conservation strategies to avoid catastrophic losses of this habitat, and of many others globally with trees or other long-lived perennials as keystone species.
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| 17. |
- Huntley, Brian, et al.
(författare)
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Millennial Climatic Fluctuations Are Key to the Structure of Last Glacial Ecosystems
- 2013
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Ingår i: PLoS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 8:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Whereas fossil evidence indicates extensive treeless vegetation and diverse grazing megafauna in Europe and northern Asia during the last glacial, experiments combining vegetation models and climate models have to-date simulated widespread persistence of trees. Resolving this conflict is key to understanding both last glacial ecosystems and extinction of most of the mega-herbivores. Using a dynamic vegetation model (DVM) we explored the implications of the differing climatic conditions generated by a general circulation model (GCM) in "normal" and "hosing" experiments. Whilst the former approximate interstadial conditions, the latter, designed to mimic Heinrich Events, approximate stadial conditions. The "hosing" experiments gave simulated European vegetation much closer in composition to that inferred from fossil evidence than did the "normal" experiments. Given the short duration of interstadials, and the rate at which forest cover expanded during the late-glacial and early Holocene, our results demonstrate the importance of millennial variability in determining the character of last glacial ecosystems.
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| 18. |
- Parmesan, Camille, et al.
(författare)
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Poleward shifts in geographical ranges of butterfly species associated with regional warming
- 1999
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 399:6736, s. 579-583
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Mean global temperatures have risen this century, and further warming is predicted to continue for the next 50–100 years. Some migratory species can respond rapidly to yearly climate variation by altering the timing or destination of migration, but most wildlife is sedentary and so is incapable of such a rapid response. For these species, responses to the warming trend should be slower, reflected in poleward shifts of the range. Such changes in distribution would occur at the level of the population, stemming not from changes in the pattern of individuals' movements, but from changes in the ratios of extinctions to colonizations at the northern and southern boundaries of the range. A northward range shift therefore occurs when there is net extinction at the southern boundary or net colonization at the northern boundary. However, previous evidence has been limited to a single species or to only a portion of the species' range. Here we provide the first large-scale evidence of poleward shifts in entire species' ranges. In a sample of 35 non-migratory European butterflies, 63% have ranges that have shifted to the north by 35–240 km during this century, and only 3% have shifted to the south.
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