| 1. |
- Ademuyiwa, Adesoji O., et al.
(författare)
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Determinants of morbidity and mortality following emergency abdominal surgery in children in low-income and middle-income countries
- 2016
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Ingår i: BMJ Global Health. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 2059-7908. ; 1:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Child health is a key priority on the global health agenda, yet the provision of essential and emergency surgery in children is patchy in resource-poor regions. This study was aimed to determine the mortality risk for emergency abdominal paediatric surgery in low-income countries globally.Methods: Multicentre, international, prospective, cohort study. Self-selected surgical units performing emergency abdominal surgery submitted prespecified data for consecutive children aged <16 years during a 2-week period between July and December 2014. The United Nation's Human Development Index (HDI) was used to stratify countries. The main outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality, analysed by multilevel logistic regression.Results: This study included 1409 patients from 253 centres in 43 countries; 282 children were under 2 years of age. Among them, 265 (18.8%) were from low-HDI, 450 (31.9%) from middle-HDI and 694 (49.3%) from high-HDI countries. The most common operations performed were appendectomy, small bowel resection, pyloromyotomy and correction of intussusception. After adjustment for patient and hospital risk factors, child mortality at 30 days was significantly higher in low-HDI (adjusted OR 7.14 (95% CI 2.52 to 20.23), p<0.001) and middle-HDI (4.42 (1.44 to 13.56), p=0.009) countries compared with high-HDI countries, translating to 40 excess deaths per 1000 procedures performed.Conclusions: Adjusted mortality in children following emergency abdominal surgery may be as high as 7 times greater in low-HDI and middle-HDI countries compared with high-HDI countries. Effective provision of emergency essential surgery should be a key priority for global child health agendas.
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| 2. |
- Abouzid, Mohamed, et al.
(författare)
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Investigating the current environmental situation in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region during the third wave of COVID-19 pandemic : urban vs. rural context
- 2022
-
Ingår i: BMC Public Health. - : Springer Nature. - 1471-2458. ; 22:1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BackgroundCoronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic led to a massive global socio-economic tragedy that has impacted the ecosystem. This paper aims to contextualize urban and rural environmental situations during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region.ResultsAn online survey was conducted, 6770 participants were included in the final analysis, and 64% were females. The majority of the participants were urban citizens (74%). Over 50% of the urban residents significantly (p < 0.001) reported a reduction in noise, gathering in tourist areas, and gathering in malls and restaurants. Concerning the pollutants, most urban and rural areas have reported an increase in masks thrown in streets (69.49% vs. 73.22%, resp.; p = 0.003). Plastic bags and hospital waste also increased significantly with the same p-value of < 0.001 in urban areas compared with rural ones. The multifactorial logistic model for urban resident predictors achieved acceptable discrimination (AUROC = 0.633) according to age, crowdedness, noise and few pollutants.ConclusionThe COVID-19 pandemic had a beneficial impact on the environment and at the same time, various challenges regarding plastic and medical wastes are rising which requires environmental interventions.
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| 3. |
- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(författare)
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- 2020
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 4. |
- Abdeljaber, Osama, et al.
(författare)
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Fault Detection and Severity Identification of Ball Bearings by Online Condition Monitoring
- 2019
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Ingår i: IEEE Transactions on Industrial Electronics. - : IEEE. - 0278-0046 .- 1557-9948. ; 66:10, s. 8136-8147
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents a fast, accurate, and simple systematic approach for online condition monitoring and severity identification of ball bearings. This approach utilizes compact one-dimensional (1-D) convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to identify, quantify, and localize bearing damage. The proposed approach is verified experimentally under several single and multiple damage scenarios. The experimental results demonstrated that the proposed approach can achieve a high level of accuracy for damage detection, localization, and quantification. Besides its real-time processing ability and superior robustness against the high-level noise presence, the compact and minimally trained 1-D CNNs in the core of the proposed approach can handle new damage scenarios with utmost accuracy.
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| 5. |
- Alnadhari, Ibrahim, et al.
(författare)
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Presentation, diagnosis, management, and outcomes of prostatic abscess : comparison of three treatment modalities
- 2020
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Ingår i: Therapeutic advances in urology. - : Sage Publications. - 1756-2872 .- 1756-2880. ; 12, s. 1-8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose:The lack of available guidelines for the management of prostatic abscess (PA) results in inconsistencies in its management. The most commonly used management modalities were conservative treatment with parenteral antibiotics alone, transrectal ultrasound-guided (TRUS) needle aspiration, or transurethral deroofing (TUD).The current study is a retrospective study and examines prostatic abscess cases treated by either one or more of the different modalities. We assess and compare presentation, diagnosis, management, and outcomes of prostatic abscess and we compare the outcomes of the three management modalities.Methods:We retrieved the records of all patients (n = 23) admitted to the Urology department at Al Wakra hospital with the computed tomography (CT) diagnosis of prostatic abscess from January 2013 to March 2018. Data collected included demographic, clinical, laboratory, and imaging findings, as well as management modality, duration of hospital stay, duration of follow up, outcome, and recurrence.Results:A total of nine (39.1%) patients had conservative treatment only; eight (34.8%) had TUD, and six (26.1%) had TRUS needle aspiration. The mean age was 52.7 years. Lower urinary tract symptoms and fever were the most common presentations (95.7% and 82.6%, respectively). CT scan of the abdomen and pelvis with contrast was undertaken for all patients and it showed that multiple abscesses were observed in 14 (60.9%) cases.The overall mean hospital stay was 8.45 days (range 2–21 days). We observed no recurrences for patients treated conservatively or those who undertook TUD, but three patient (50%) recurrences were noted in TRUS aspiration patients. There was no mortality across the sample.Conclusion:Early diagnosis of prostatic abscess and prompt management may have decreased the morbidity and mortality. Conservative management can succeed in subcentimeter abscesses but TUD is the definite therapy for large and multiloculated abscess. TRUS aspiration does have a role in treatment, but it has higher recurrence and longer hospital stay.
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| 6. |
- Avci, Onur, et al.
(författare)
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One-Dimensional Convolutional Neural Networks for Real-Time Damage Detection of Rotating Machinery
- 2022
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Ingår i: Rotating Machinery, Optical Methods & Scanning LDV Methods, Volume 6. Conference Proceedings of the Society for Experimental Mechanics Series. - Cham : Springer. ; , s. 73-83
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents a novel real-time rotating machinery damage monitoring system. The system detects, quantifies, and localizes damage in ball bearings in a fast and accurate way using one-dimensional convolutional neural networks (1D-CNNs). The proposed method has been validated with experimental work not only for single damage but also for multiple damage cases introduced onto ball bearings in laboratory environment. The two 1D-CNNs (one set for the interior bearing ring and another set for the exterior bearing ring) were trained and tested under the same conditions for torque and speed. It is observed that the proposed system showed excellent performance even with the severe additive noise. The proposed method can be implemented in practical use for online defect detection, monitoring, and condition assessment of ball bearings and other rotatory machine elements. © 2022, The Society for Experimental Mechanics, Inc.
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| 7. |
- Berggren, Peter, et al.
(författare)
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Coping with large disruptions in the payment system : stakeholder experience from stakeholder workshops and computer based simulation gaming exercises
- 2020
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the 2020 the 3rd International Conference on Computers in Management and Business (ICCMB 2020) Session - Computer and Mobile Technology. - New York : Association for Computing Machinery (ACM). - 9781450376778 ; , s. 141-145, s. 141-145
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper, we describe a work in progress where a mixed methods approach is used to increase insight into what kind of consequences a temporal disruption or total breakdown of the payment system creates for a large variety of societal actors and to increase insight in how their collaborative behaviour can be guided to be more resilient. This approach includes data from different types of data collections; workshop with high-level decisionmakers from involved sectors, interviews with citizens, representatives from the fuel, foods, and finance sectors, as well as experiences from 15 simulation game exercises with stakeholders. The triangulated and aggregated outcomes of the different data collections resulted in a set of recommendations on how to cope with disruptions in the card payment system.
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| 8. |
- Bergsten, Linnea, et al.
(författare)
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Designing engaging computer based simulation games for increasing societal resilience to payment system
- 2020
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the 2020 the 3rd International Conference on Computers in Management and Business (ICCMB 2020) Session - Computer and Mobile Technology. - New York : Association for Computing Machinery (ACM). - 9781450376778 ; , s. 166-172, s. 166-172
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Large or lengthy disruptions to the card payment system are threats that can cause crisis in society, especially in countries where other payment options are scarce. This paper presents a study that provides suggestions on how to improve a simulation game used to increase societal resilience to payment system disruptions. Questionnaires and interviews have been used to investigate how 16 participant in crisis exercises experience realism, relevance and validity in such exercises. Suggestions on how to improve the simulation game are provided, such as improvements to the graphical interface and introducing supporting roles from the exercise management.
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| 9. |
- Ehrentraut, Claudia, et al.
(författare)
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Text Analysis to support structuring and modelling a public policy problem : Outline of an algorithm to extract inferences from textual data
- 2014
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Ingår i: DSV writers hut 2014. - Stockholm : Department of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University. - 9789163774577
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Policy making situations are real-world problems that exhibit complexity in that they are composed of many interrelated problems and issues. To be effective, policies must holistically address the complexity of the situation rather than propose solutions to single problems. Formulating and understanding the situation and its complex dynamics, therefore, is a key to finding holistic solutions. Analysis of text based information on the policy problem, using Natural Language Processing (NLP) and Text analysis techniques, can support modelling of public policy problem situations in a more objective way based on domain experts’ knowledge and scientific evidence. The objective behind this study is to support modelling of public policy problem situations, using text analysis of verbal descriptions of the problem. We propose a formal methodology for analysis of qualitative data from multiple information sources on a policy problem to construct a causal diagram of the problem. The analysis process aims at identifying key variables, linking them by cause-effect relationships and mapping that structure into a graphical representation that is adequate for designing action alternatives, i.e., policy options. This study describes the outline of an algorithm used to automate the initial step of a larger methodological approach, which is so far done manually. In this initial step, inferences about key variables and their interrelationships are extracted from textual data to support a better problem structuring. A small prototype for this step is also presented.
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| 10. |
- Ellabban, Mohamed A., et al.
(författare)
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Assessment of Freestyle Local Facial Perforator Flaps for Coverage of Facial Defects
- 2021
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Ingår i: The Journal of Craniofacial Surgery. - : Wolters Kluwer. - 1049-2275 .- 1536-3732. ; 32:2, s. e122-e125
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: To assess local freestyle facial perforator flaps in the reconstruction of small to medium-sized facial defects.MATERIALS AND METHODS: In a case series, local freestyle perforator flaps were used in Suez Canal University Hospital to reconstruct 28 facial defects in 26 patients between 2017 and 2019. Adequate perforators were identified near those defects and flaps were designed as propeller or VY advancement. Four scales from the FACE-Q (satisfaction with facial appearance, satisfaction with the outcome, psychological function, and appearance-related psychosocial distress) and 2 scales from the SCAR-Q (Appearance scale and Symptom scale) were used as well as the observer part of the Patient and Observer Scar Assessment Scale. The mean follow up period was 10 months.RESULTS: Complete reconstruction was achieved in all cases with a high rate of patient satisfaction which was assessed by FACE-Q and SCAR-Q. Moreover, observer assessment by Patient and Observer Scar Assessment Scale score showed high patient satisfaction with the scars with a mean (SD) 15.5 (3.4) and there was a positive correlation between subjective and objective: results (r2 from 0.27 to 0.41, P < 0.01). Regarding complications, bulkiness occurred in 2 flaps, congestion in 2 flaps, dehiscence in 1 flap, and tip necrosis in 5 flaps. Accordingly, secondary intervention in the form of medicinal leech therapy was used in 3 flaps, delayed closure for the dehisced flap and debulking for 1 flap.CONCLUSIONS: Local freestyle perforator flap reconstruction is one of the recommended techniques for small to medium-sized facial defects which gives a high aesthetic outcome and patient satisfaction.
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| 11. |
- Ghazy, Ramy Mohamed, et al.
(författare)
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Quality of life among health care workers in Arab countries 2 years after COVID-19 pandemic
- 2022
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Public Health. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2296-2565. ; 10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Assessment of the quality of life (QoL) among healthcare workers (HCWs) is vital for better healthcare and is an essential indicator for competent health service delivery. Since the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic strike, the frontline position of HCWs subjected them to tremendous mental and psychological burden with a high risk of virus acquisition. Aim: This study evaluated the QoL and its influencing factors among HCWs residing in the Arab countries. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study using a self-administered online questionnaire based on the World Health Organization QoL-BREF instrument with additional questions related to COVID-19. The study was conducted in three different languages (Arabic, English, and French) across 19 Arab countries between February 22 and March 24, 2022. Results: A total of 3,170 HCWs were included in the survey. The majority were females (75.3%), aged 18–40 years (76.4%), urban residents (90.4%), married (54.5%), and were living in middle-income countries (72.0%). The mean scores of general health and general QoL were 3.7 ± 1.0 and 3.7 ± 0.9, respectively. Those who attained average physical, psychological, social, and environmental QoL were 40.8, 15.4, 26.2, and 22.3%, respectively. The income per capita and country income affected the mean scores of all QoL domains. Previous COVID-19 infection, having relatives who died of COVID-19, and being vaccinated against COVID-19 significantly affected the mean scores of different domains. Conclusion: A large proportion of the Arab HCWs evaluated in this study had an overall poor QoL. More attention should be directed to this vulnerable group to ensure their productivity and service provision.
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| 12. |
- Ibrahim, Osama, et al.
(författare)
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A Causal Mapping Simulation for Scenario Planning and Impact Assessment in Public Policy Problems - The Case of EU 2030 Climate and Energy Framework
- 2014
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the 5th. World Congress on Social Simulation. - 9780692318959 ; , s. 284-296
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The ultimate objective of studying, modeling and analyzing policy problems is to incorporate the newest management technologies in the public policy decision-making in a meaningful and practically feasible way that adds significant value to the process. Simulation techniques can support the policy decision process by allowing empirical evaluation of the system dynamics present in the policy situation at hand. This paper presents a decision support simulation model for the European Union (EU) Climate and Energy targets 2030 as a case study of public policy decision making on the EU level. The simulation model is based on the problem structuring or framing by derivation of a system dynamics model from verbal descriptions of the problem, the graphical representation and analysis of change scenarios using the ‘Causal Mapping and Situation Formulation’ method. This approach supports the analysis of qualitative and quantitative information in order to facilitate both the conceptualization and formulation stages of the system modeling process. The resulting model, which is simply a topology of quantified causal dependencies among the problem key variables, can be used to simulate the transfer of change. The aim of simulation herein is to apply cognitive strategic thinking and scenario-based planning in a public policy problem situation in order to design alternative options and provide foresight or ex-ante impact assessment in terms of economic, social, environmental and other impacts.
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| 13. |
- Ibrahim, Osama, 1979-
(författare)
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A Systems Tool for Prescriptive Policy Analysis : Labelled Causal Mapping Method for Policy-oriented Modelling, Simulation and Decision analysis
- 2016
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Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The elicitation and processing of relevant information is the core of any policy decision-making process. Modelling is about making sense of the available information. Models are able to incorporate the contextual influences on policy making (e.g. political and economic environments, community sentiment…etc). Systems analysis allows quantitative, empirical testing of models that exist in the study of public policy. Simulation and visualisation techniques can help policy makers to reduce uncertainties on the possible impacts of policies.In an effort to enable adoption of the systems thinking approach to address the central problem of empirical political study, this thesis presents a framework for prescriptive policy analysis that provides decision support to: the problem definition, ex-ante impact assessment and evaluation activities carried out at the policy formulation stage of the policymaking process.We contribute a new tool for systemic modelling and simulation of public policy decision situations. It aims to facilitate the cognitive activity of representing complex mental models using system dynamics simulation modelling. Using the ’labelled causal mapping’ method, a policy-oriented problem structuring method introduced in this research, the tool bridges the gap between the user’s mental model and the explicit graphical representation in order to enable knowledge representation and system analysis. The method provides a basis for further computational decision analysis using a common policy appraisal format, a multi-criteria model with main evaluation criteria (effectiveness, efficiency, relevance, coherence and added value), linked to a set of measurable, context dependent attributes (targeted impact variables from the policy model).A web-based tool prototype has been implemented in a Node.js environment and is accessible both from a web-based graphical user interface as well as a hosted API. Multiple demonstration and test cases, from various policy areas and different EU policymaking levels, were used in several iterations of the build-evaluate cycle. This approach lead to the different studies that make up this research.
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| 14. |
- Ibrahim, Osama, et al.
(författare)
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A systems tool for structuring public policy problems and design of policy options
- 2017
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Ingår i: International Journal of Electronic Governance. - 1742-7509 .- 1742-7517. ; 9:1/2, s. 4-26
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Systems analysis allows quantitative empirical testing of models that exist in the study of public policy. Simulation and visualisation techniques can help policy makers to reduce uncertainties on the possible impacts of policies. This paper presents a new tool for systems modelling and simulation of policy problems to support the problem analysis, the design of policy options and impact assessment activities. The tool facilitates the cognitive activity of representing complex mental models using system dynamics simulation modelling by defining standards and a procedure for policy modelling. We propose a new policy-oriented problem structuring method (PSM), the ‘labelled causal mapping’. The method supports scenario-based dynamic simulation and provides graphical representations of the involved actors, key variables, control flows and causal dependencies in a policy decision situation. A web-based tool prototype has been implemented in a Node.js environment. Two real policy problems are presented for demonstration of the use of the prototype.
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| 15. |
- Ibrahim, Osama, et al.
(författare)
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A systems tool for structuring public policy problems and design of policy options
- 2017
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Ingår i: International Journal of Electronic Governance. - 1742-7509 .- 1742-7517. ; 9:1-2, s. 4-26
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Systems analysis allows quantitative empirical testing of models that exist in the study of public policy. Simulation and visualisation techniques can help policy makers to reduce uncertainties on the possible impacts of policies. This paper presents a new tool for systems modelling and simulation of policy problems to support the problem analysis, the design of policy options and impact assessment activities. The tool facilitates the cognitive activity of representing complex mental models using system dynamics simulation modelling by defining standards and a procedure for policy modelling. We propose a new policy-oriented problem structuring method (PSM), the 'labelled causal mapping'. The method supports scenario-based dynamic simulation and provides graphical representations of the involved actors, key variables, control flows and causal dependencies in a policy decision situation. A web-based tool prototype has been implemented in a Node.js environment. Two real policy problems are presented for demonstration of the use of the prototype.
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| 16. |
- Ibrahim, Osama, et al.
(författare)
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An Integrated Decision Support System Framework for Strategic Planning in Higher Education Institutions
- 2014
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Ingår i: Group Decision and Negotiation. A Process-Oriented View. - Heidelberg : Springer. - 9783319071787 - 9783319071794 ; , s. 237-245
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Strategic planning models and information provision for decision-making in complex strategic situations are frequent subjects for scientific research. This research deals with the problem of supporting strategic planning decision-making in public higher education (HE) institutions by designing a Decision Support System (DSS) to be used by HE decision makers in implementing their strategic planning process, considering that the DSS would be anchored in on all databases of the institution’s information systems. This paper adopts a model for the strategic planning process, advocates the incorporation of technologies of participation (ToP) and introduces a collaborative framework for the planning activities at the different institutional levels to develop the institution’s strategic plan using a bottom-up approach. Based on the strategic planning process model, a DSS framework is proposed and decision support methods are suggested for the different modules of the DSS. The DSS provides intelligent support (on the individual, group and organizational levels) to strategic planning decisions in all stages of the process. By utilizing this DSS, it is possible to create better conditions for implementing the objectives of the future-oriented activity of the institution.
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| 17. |
- Ibrahim, Osama, 1979-
(författare)
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Design and Investigation of a Decision Support System for Public Policy Formulation
- 2018
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The ultimate aim of support for public policy decision making is to develop ways of facilitating policymaking that can create policies that are consistent with the preferences of policymakers and stakeholders (such as an increase in economic growth, the reduction of social inequalities, and improvements to the environment), and that are at the same time based on the available knowledge and evidential information.Using the design science research methodology, an iterative design process was followed to build and evaluate a research artefact in the form of an analytical method that is also operationalised as a decision support system (DSS) – in order to facilitate the problem analysis, the impact assessment and the decision evaluation activities carried out at the policy formulation stage of the policymaking process. The DSS provides a web-based, user-friendly interface for two main software modules: (i) a tool for modelling and simulation of policy scenarios; and (ii) a tool for multi-criteria evaluation of policy decisions. The target end-users of the DSS tools are policymakers, the support staff of politicians, policy analysts and researchers within governmental departments and parliaments at the various institutional levels of the European Union.The proposed model-based decision support approach integrates systems thinking, problem structuring methods and multi-criteria decision analysis, in what can be described as a ‘sense-making’ approach. A new policy-oriented quantitative problem structuring method is introduced in this research, the ‘labelled causal mapping’ method, which aims to reduce the cognitive overload involved in representing complex mental models using system dynamics simulation modelling in order to facilitate knowledge representation and system analysis. One contribution of this work is an object-oriented implementation of a prototype tool for systems modelling and simulation of policy decision situations based on the labelled causal mapping method. The method provides a basis for further computational decision analysis. We proposed criteria models and data formats for common (generic) policy appraisal, and a preference elicitation method for in-depth decision evaluation based on the results of scenario simulation and the preferences of decision makers and stakeholder groups.The artefact evaluation clarifies how well the proposed approach and the DSS tool prototype support a solution to the problem and the extent to which the outcomes in two policy analysis use cases are useful in terms of output analysis and knowledge synthesis.The contributions of this research to theory and practice were articulated based on the design knowledge obtained through an iterative design process, notably the emergence of the concepts of transparency and intelligibility in policymodelling, (i.e., the need for explicit and interpretable models that can provide justification of a specific decision).
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| 18. |
- Ibrahim, Osama, et al.
(författare)
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Intelligibility and Transparency in Model-based Collaborative Governance
- 2019
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the 20th Annual International Conference on Digital Government Research. - New York, NY, USA : Association for Computing Machinery (ACM). - 9781450372046 ; , s. 214-226
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Governments are currently confronting major challenges such as financial, economic and spending crises, impending resource shortages, migratory pressures and climate change. At the same time, policymakers are required to be more inclusive and to co-create policy with stakeholders. Policies must address the complexity of a situation in a holistic way, rather than propose solutions to single problems. Therefore, formulating and understanding the situation and its complex dynamics is key in finding holistic solutions. This indicates a systems approach to policy analysis that is integrative and inter-subjective. There is a need to develop robust, intuitive decision support tools that provide an environment for model-based collaborative governance. These tools should enable multiple policy actors to: (i) build and share a mental model of the problem under analysis; (ii) design policy options, each structured as a particular combination of various types of policy instruments, and assess the likely impacts of a policy option in terms of the economic, financial, social, environmental and other impacts; and (iii) conduct an in-depth evaluation of competing policy options, taking into account the preferences of policymakers and stakeholder groups. A new policy-oriented quantitative problem structuring method that is facilitated by decision support system (DSS) technologies is a novel research opportunity that was explored in the SENSE4US research project, which designed and demonstrated systems modelling, simulation and decision analysis tools for prescriptive policy analysis. This paper reports on the results of that research project and provides a reflection on the contributions of this research to theory and practice and what areas further research can take place in the future.
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| 19. |
- Ibrahim, Osama, et al.
(författare)
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SENSE4US Policy Modelling and Simulation Tool : Evaluation Use Case: Finland’s 2015 Asylum Seekers Crisis
- 2018
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Ingår i: Cybernetics and systems. - 0196-9722 .- 1087-6553.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A key challenge for policy planning and risk assessment in governmental institutions is to ensure that relevant information, expertise and knowledge are fully integrated and taken into account during the policy process. A systems thinking approach can help gathering and organizing the necessary policy intelligence and involving a diverse range of stakeholders. This study is done as part of a design-science research (DSR) project to build and evaluate a new systems tool for structuring of public policy problems and the design of policy options to be used by policy makers, analysts and researchers in governmental institutions and parliaments. The study aims at evaluation of the tool to establish its utility and efficacy for achieving its stated purpose and assess the end-user benefits. That is performed through application of the tool to analysis of a real public policy problem, Finnish government’s action in response to the rapidly growing numbers of asylum seekers entering Finland in recent years. The resulting simulation model allows designing a pathway for immigration policy that aims to mitigate the resulting problems.
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| 20. |
- Larsson, Aron, 1976-, et al.
(författare)
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A Simulation-Game for Resilience Assessments in a Payment System Disruption Scenario
- 2022
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Ingår i: International Journal of Knowledge and Systems Science. - : I G I Global. - 1947-8208 .- 1947-8216. ; 13:1, s. 1-25
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents a quantitative agent-based simulation model of the everyday payment system used to simulate the business and consumer consequences of loss of functionality, or disruptions of the payment system for the food and fuel retailing markets as well as the bank sector in order to address resilience. The simulation model is used in a gaming simulation approach that couples a role-playing game with the simulation model in order to provide crisis management team-training to decision-makers in a multi-organisational context. Drawing primarily on resilience engineering and crisis response, the concepts of core values, coping strategies, and resilience value networks were used to guide the design of the simulation model. The ultimate aim of this study is to explore the collaborative responses from the key actors during the disruption scenario in order to evoke and facilitate collective resilience.
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| 21. |
- Larsson, Aron, et al.
(författare)
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A Simulation-Game for Resilience Assessments in a Payment System Disruption Scenario
- 2022
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Ingår i: International Journal of Knowledge and Systems Science (IJKSS). - : IGI Global. - 1947-8208 .- 1947-8216. ; 13:1, s. 1-25
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents a quantitative agent-based simulation model of the everyday payment system used to simulate the business and consumer consequences of loss of functionality, or disruptions of the payment system for the food and fuel retailing markets as well as the bank sector in order to address resilience. The simulation model is used in a gaming simulation approach that couples a role-playing game with the simulation model in order to provide crisis management team-training to decision-makers in a multi-organisational context. Drawing primarily on resilience engineering and crisis response, the concepts of core values, coping strategies, and resilience value networks were used to guide the design of the simulation model. The ultimate aim of this study is to explore the collaborative responses from the key actors during the disruption scenario in order to evoke and facilitate collective resilience.
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| 22. |
- Larsson, Aron, 1976-, et al.
(författare)
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Agent based simulation of a payment system for resilience assessments
- 2017
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Ingår i: 2017 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management (IEEM). - : IEEE. - 9781538609484 - 9781538609491 ; , s. 314-318
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- We provide an agent based simulation model of the Swedish payment system. The simulation model is to be used to analyze the consequences of loss of functionality, or disruptions of the payment system for the food and fuel supply chains as well as the bank sector. We propose a gaming simulation approach, using a computer based role playing game, to explore the collaborative responses from the key actors, in order to evoke and facilitate collective resilience.
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| 23. |
- Larsson, Aron, et al.
(författare)
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Modeling for Policy Formulation : Causal Mapping, Scenario Generation, and Decision Evaluation
- 2015
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Ingår i: Electronic Participation. - Cham : Springer. - 9783319224992 - 9783319225005 ; , s. 135-146
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper we present a work process with associated operational research modeling and analysis tools for the policy formulation stage of the Lindblom policy cycle process model. The approach exploits the use of causal maps for problem structuring and scenario generation of policy options together with decision analysis for evaluating generated scenarios taking preferences of decision makers and stakeholders into account. The benefits of interest when exploiting this integrated modeling approach is to enable for; (i) problem structuring and facilitating understanding and communication of a complex policy problem, (ii) simulation of policy consequences and identification of a smaller set of policy options from a possible very large set of possible options, and (iii) structured decision evaluation of the generated alternative policy options.
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| 24. |
- Talantsev, Anton, et al.
(författare)
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Multi-stakeholder Preference Analysis in Ex-ante Evaluation of Policy Options - Use Case : Ultra Low Emission Vehicles in UK
- 2016
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Ingår i: Electronic Participation. - Cham : Springer. - 9783319450735 - 9783319450742 ; , s. 176-188
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- While the simulation-based impact assessment of public policy proposals allows policy makers to identify the feasible policy options and verify their economic, social and environmental impacts, it does not provide the explicit evaluation of policy options. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques can support an in-depth performance evaluation of policy options taking into account the preferences of decision makers and stakeholders. These preferences reflect acceptable trade-offs of performance among objectives. This study reviews multi-attribute decision-making (MADM) technique and presents a common policy appraisal format using main evaluation criteria linked to a set of measurable, context dependent attributes. We argue for a rank-based approach for eliciting preferences, select a novel method for attribute weight elicitation, and show how it can be integrated within a public policy multi-criteria evaluation framework. A use case for policymaking, ‘Ultra-Low Emission Vehicles (ULEV) Uptake in UK’, is used for demonstration of the proposed approach for policy decision analysis. This approach seeks to couple systems modelling and simulation of policy scenarios with MCDA, stakeholder analysis and preference elicitation. The outputs can further provide analytical insights in controversy/acceptability of policy options, and consequently guide further policy formulation and the design of better options.
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| 25. |
- Tzikas, Apostolos, et al.
(författare)
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Percutaneous left atrial appendage occlusion : the Munich consensus document on definitions, endpoints, and data collection requirements for clinical studies
- 2017
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Ingår i: Europace. - : OXFORD UNIV PRESS. - 1099-5129 .- 1532-2092. ; 19:1, s. 4-15
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The increasing interest in left atrial appendage occlusion (LAAO) for ischaemic stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (AF) fuels the need for more clinical data on the safety and effectiveness of this therapy. Besides an assessment of the effectiveness of the therapy in specific patients groups, comparisons with pharmacological stroke prophylaxis, surgical approaches, and other device-based therapies are warranted. This paper documents the consensus reached among clinical experts in relevant disciplines from Europe and North America, European cardiology professional societies, and representatives from the medical device industry regarding definitions for parameters and endpoints to be assessed in clinical studies. Adherence to these definitions is proposed in order to achieve a consistent approach across clinical studies on LAAO among the involved stakeholders and various clinical disciplines and thereby facilitate continued evaluation of therapeutic strategies available.
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| 26. |
- Tzikas, Apostolos, et al.
(författare)
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Percutaneous left atrial appendage occlusion : the Munich consensus document on definitions, endpoints and data collection requirements for clinical studies
- 2016
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Ingår i: EuroIntervention. - 1774-024X .- 1969-6213. ; 12:1, s. 103-111
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The increasing interest in left atrial appendage occlusion (LAAO) for ischaemic stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (AF) fuels the need for more clinical data on the safety and effectiveness of this therapy. Besides an assessment of the effectiveness of the therapy in specific patient groups, comparisons with pharmacological stroke prophylaxis, surgical approaches and other device-based therapies are warranted. This paper documents the consensus reached among clinical experts in relevant disciplines from Europe and North America, European cardiology professional societies and representatives from the medical device industry regarding defmitions for parameters and endpoints to be assessed in clinical studies. Adherence to these definitions is proposed in order to achieve a consistent approach across clinical studies on LAAO among the involved stakeholders and various clinical disciplines and thereby facilitate continued evaluation of therapeutic strategies available.
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| 27. |
- van Laere, Joeri, 1974-, et al.
(författare)
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A simulation-game to explore collective critical infrastructure resilience
- 2018
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Ingår i: Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World. - London : CRC Press. - 9780815386827 - 9781351174664 - 9781351174657 ; , s. 1305-1312
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Resilience of interdependent infrastructures increasingly depends on collaborative responses from actors with diverse backgrounds that may not be familiar with cascade effects into areas beyond their own sector. A simulation-game can enable societal actors to obtain a deeper understanding of the interdependencies between their infrastructures and their respective crisis responses. Following a design science approach, a simulation-game has been developed that combines role-playing simulation and computer simulation. The simulation-game challenges participants to address the interaction between payment disruptions, food and fuel supply, security problems (riots, robberies) and communication challenges (preventing hoarding). A number of crucial design choices were handled while developing the simulation-game. The main design challenges were: How to validate an unthinkable escalation scenario?; How to give the simulation a sufficient level of detail on all aspects and keep the complexity graspable so it can be played instantly?; and How much time should each playing round take?
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| 28. |
- van Laere, Joeri, 1974-, et al.
(författare)
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Analyzing the Implications of Design Choices in Existing Simulation-Games for Critical Infrastructure Resilience
- 2018
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Ingår i: Simulation Gaming: Applications for Sustainable Cities and Smart Infrastructures. - Cham : Springer. - 9783319919010 - 9783319919027 ; , s. 15-23
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Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A literature study has identified the major impacts of importantdesign choices in simulation models and simulation-games that model criticalinfrastructure resilience. The four major groups of design choices discussed inthis article are: (1) the chosen learning goal (system understanding or collaborationtraining), (2) realism and time scale of the scenario, (3) design of playerroles and communication rules, (4) number of action alternatives, replay-abilityand richness of performance feedback while playing. Researchers and practitionerswho build simulation-games for studying critical infrastructure resiliencecan use the accumulated insights on these four aspects to improve the quality oftheir game design and the quality of the simulation models the game participantsinteract with.
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| 29. |
- van Laere, Joeri, et al.
(författare)
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Challenges for critical infrastructure resilience : Cascading effects of payment system disruptions
- 2017
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the 14th ISCRAM Conference. - Linköping : Linköping university. ; , s. 281-292, s. 281-292, s. 281-292
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Critical infrastructures become more and more entangled and rely extensively on information technology. A deeper insight into the relationships between critical infrastructures enables the actors involved to more quickly understand the severity of information technology disruptions and to identify robust cross-functional mitigating actions. This study illustrates how and why disruptions in the payment system in Sweden could create cascading effects in other critical infrastructures with potentially severe consequences for many citizens, government institutions and companies. Data from document studies, interviews and workshops with field experts reveal seven challenges for collective cross-functional critical infrastructure resilience that need to be dealt with: 1) Shortage of food, fuel, cash, medicine; 2) Limited capacity of alternative payment solutions; 3) Cities are more vulnerable than the countryside; 4) Economically vulnerable groups in society are more severely affected; 5) Trust maintenance needs; 6) Crisis communication needs; 7) Fragmentation of responsibility for critical infrastructures across many actors.
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| 30. |
- van Laere, Joeri, 1974-, et al.
(författare)
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Iterative Game Design to develop collective critical infrastructure resilience
- 2019
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Ingår i: Simulation & gaming through times and across disciplines: past and future, heritage and progress. - Warsaw : Kozminski University. - 9788366502017 ; , s. 128-138
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Resilience of interdependent infrastructures increasingly depends on collaborative responses from actors with diverse backgrounds that may not be familiar with cascade effects into areas beyond their own sector. A simulation-game can enable societal actors to obtain a deeper understanding of the interdependencies between their respective infrastructures and their respective crisis responses. Following a design science approach, a simulation-game has been developed that combines role-playing simulation and computer simulation. The simulation-game challenges participants to address the interaction between payment disruptions, food and fuel supply, security problems (riots, robberies) and communication challenges (preventing hoarding). The game has been played on 15 occasions with representatives from different sectors in society and the game design has been changed iteratively after each playing-session. The paper reflects on the impact of initial design choices and the effects on later modifications. Finally, it is discussed how the current version of the game serves multiple purposes: awareness raising, education of participants, model validation, identification of new mitigating actions, and development of collective critical infrastructure resilience in society.
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| 31. |
- Xylia, Maria, et al.
(författare)
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Fossil-free Public Transport : Prescriptive Policy Analysis for the Swedish Bus Fleets
- 2016
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Ingår i: 13th European Energy Market Conference -EEM 2016. IEEE XPlore. - : IEEE conference proceedings. - 9781509012985 - 9781509012978
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Elicitation and processing of the relevant informationis the core of any policy decision-making process. This studypresents a prescriptive policy analysis for the “fossil-free fueldeployment for public transport buses at the national level inSweden”, using a policy-oriented modelling and simulation tool,Sense4us1, that supports systems analysis for policy involving: (i)structuring of policy problems using the labelled causal mappingmethod, (ii) ex-ante impact assessment using scenario-baseddynamic simulation modelling and (iii) ex-ante evaluation of theconsidered policy options based on the simulation results andusing a set of standard criteria for evaluation of EU policyinterventions. The results are most of all useful for designing apolicy pathway for public bus transport that is bothenvironmentally sustainable and economically feasible.Moreover, the process allows involvement of the keystakeholders to reflect various priorities and preferences.
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| 32. |
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- 2019
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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