| 1. |
- Kinyoki, DK, et al.
(författare)
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Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature medicine. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1546-170X .- 1078-8956. ; 26:5, s. 750-759
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 4. |
- Graetz, N, et al.
(författare)
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Mapping disparities in education across low- and middle-income countries
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-4687 .- 0028-0836. ; 577:77907789, s. 235-238
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Educational attainment is an important social determinant of maternal, newborn, and child health1–3. As a tool for promoting gender equity, it has gained increasing traction in popular media, international aid strategies, and global agenda-setting4–6. The global health agenda is increasingly focused on evidence of precision public health, which illustrates the subnational distribution of disease and illness7,8; however, an agenda focused on future equity must integrate comparable evidence on the distribution of social determinants of health9–11. Here we expand on the available precision SDG evidence by estimating the subnational distribution of educational attainment, including the proportions of individuals who have completed key levels of schooling, across all low- and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2017. Previous analyses have focused on geographical disparities in average attainment across Africa or for specific countries, but—to our knowledge—no analysis has examined the subnational proportions of individuals who completed specific levels of education across all low- and middle-income countries12–14. By geolocating subnational data for more than 184 million person-years across 528 data sources, we precisely identify inequalities across geography as well as within populations.
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| 5. |
- Dellenmark-Blom, Michaela, 1983, et al.
(författare)
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Establishment of a condition-specific quality-of-life questionnaire for children born with esophageal atresia aged 2-7 across 14 countries
- 2023
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Pediatrics. - 2296-2360. ; 11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BackgroundEsophageal atresia (EA) is a rare congenital anomaly characterized by a discontinuity of the esophagus. Following surgical repair, survival rates have improved dramatically the past decenniums and today exceed 90%, but the children commonly present with esophageal and respiratory morbidity. In 2018, a condition-specific quality-of-life questionnaire for children with esophageal atresia (EA) aged 2-7 in Sweden-Germany was finalized (The EA-QOL questionnaire). The study aim was to describe the evaluation of the new translations across 12 new countries in Europe, Asia, Africa, Central-and North America.MethodsFollowing forward-backward translation into the new languages, the 17-item EA-QOL questionnaire was tested in cognitive debriefing interviews with parents of children with EA aged 2-7. Parents rated if each item was easy to understand (clarity) and sensitive to answer (interference with personal integrity). They could skip responding to a non-applicable/problematic item and give open comments. Predefined psychometric criteria were used; item clarity >= 80%/item sensitive to answer <= 20%/item feasibility <= 5% missing item responses. The decision to modify the translation was based on native expert, patient stakeholder, and instrument developer review, and the need for harmonization between translations.ResultsSimilar to findings in the Swedish-German cognitive debriefing, the cross-cultural analysis of input from 116 parents from 12 new countries (4-14 parents, median 9 parents/country) showed that all items in the EA-QOL questionnaire fulfilled the criteria for item clarity >= 80% and sensitive to answer (ranging from 1%-4.5%), although results varied between countries. Four items had missing responses between 5.2% and 13.4%, three within the same domain and were in line with parents' explanations. Poor translations and feasibility were improved.ConclusionsBased on parent input, the collaboration between native experts, patient stakeholders, and instrument developers, a linguistic version of the EA-QOL questionnaire for children aged 2-7 for use in and across 14 countries has been established. These efforts have set the conditions for a cross-cultural field test of the EA-QOL questionnaire and will open the doors for a new chapter in outcome research, registries, and clinical practice concerning children with EA. In the long-term, this will help increase knowledge of the disease's burden, promote patient-centeredness, exchange of information between nations, and strengthen evidence-based treatments for children born with EA.
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| 6. |
- Izadi, Z., et al.
(författare)
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Association Between Tumor Necrosis Factor Inhibitors and the Risk of Hospitalization or Death Among Patients With Immune-Mediated Inflammatory Disease and COVID-19
- 2021
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Ingår i: Jama Network Open. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 2574-3805. ; 4:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- IMPORTANCE Although tumor necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitors are widely prescribed globally because of their ability to ameliorate shared immune pathways across immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs), the impact of COVID-19 among individuals with IMIDs who are receiving TNF inhibitors remains insufficiently understood. OBJECTIVE To examine the association between the receipt of TNF inhibitor monotherapy and the risk of COVID-19-associated hospitalization or death compared with other commonly prescribed immunomodulatory treatment regimens among adult patients with IMIDs. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This cohort study was a pooled analysis of data from 3 international COVID-19 registries comprising individuals with rheumatic diseases, inflammatory bowel disease, and psoriasis from March 12, 2020, to February 1, 2021. Clinicians directly reported COVID-19 outcomes as well as demographic and clinical characteristics of individuals with IMIDs and confirmed or suspected COVID-19 using online data entry portals. Adults (age >= 18 years) with a diagnosis of inflammatory arthritis, inflammatory bowel disease, or psoriasis were included. EXPOSURES Treatment exposure categories included TNF inhibitor monotherapy (reference treatment), TNF inhibitors in combination with methotrexate therapy, TNF inhibitors in combination with azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine therapy, methotrexate monotherapy, azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine monotherapy, and Janus kinase (Jak) inhibitor monotherapy. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The main outcome was COVID-19-associated hospitalization or death. Registry-level analyses and a pooled analysis of data across the 3 registries were conducted using multilevel multivariable logistic regression models, adjusting for demographic and clinical characteristics and accounting for country, calendar month, and registry-level correlations. RESULTS A total of 6077 patients from 74 countries were included in the analyses; of those, 3215 individuals (52.9%) were from Europe, 3563 individuals (58.6%) were female, and the mean (SD) age was 48.8 (16.5) years. The most common IMID diagnoses were rheumatoid arthritis (2146 patients [35.3%]) and Crohn disease (1537 patients [25.3%]). A total of 1297 patients (21.3%) were hospitalized, and 189 patients (3.1%) died. In the pooled analysis, compared with patients who received TNF inhibitor monotherapy, higher odds of hospitalization or death were observed among those who received a TNF inhibitor in combination with azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine therapy (odds ratio [OR], 1.74; 95% CI, 1.17-2.58; P = .006), azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine monotherapy (OR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.30-2.61; P = .001), methotrexate monotherapy (OR, 2.00; 95% CI, 1.57-2.56; P < .001), and Jak inhibitor monotherapy (OR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.21-2.73; P = .004) but not among those who received a TNF inhibitor in combination with methotrexate therapy (OR, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.85-1.63; P = .33). Similar findings were obtained in analyses that accounted for potential reporting bias and sensitivity analyses that excluded patients with a COVID-19 diagnosis based on symptoms alone. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this cohort study, TNF inhibitor monotherapy was associated with a lower risk of adverse COVID-19 outcomes compared with other commonly prescribed immunomodulatory treatment regimens among individuals with IMIDs.
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| 7. |
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
- Izadi, Zara, et al.
(författare)
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Environmental and societal factors associated with COVID-19-related death in people with rheumatic disease : an observational study
- 2022
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Ingår i: The Lancet Rheumatology. - : Elsevier. - 2665-9913. ; 4:9, s. e603-e613
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Differences in the distribution of individual-level clinical risk factors across regions do not fully explain the observed global disparities in COVID-19 outcomes. We aimed to investigate the associations between environmental and societal factors and country-level variations in mortality attributed to COVID-19 among people with rheumatic disease globally.Methods: In this observational study, we derived individual-level data on adults (aged 18–99 years) with rheumatic disease and a confirmed status of their highest COVID-19 severity level from the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance (GRA) registry, collected between March 12, 2020, and Aug 27, 2021. Environmental and societal factors were obtained from publicly available sources. The primary endpoint was mortality attributed to COVID-19. We used a multivariable logistic regression to evaluate independent associations between environmental and societal factors and death, after controlling for individual-level risk factors. We used a series of nested mixed-effects models to establish whether environmental and societal factors sufficiently explained country-level variations in death.Findings: 14 044 patients from 23 countries were included in the analyses. 10 178 (72·5%) individuals were female and 3866 (27·5%) were male, with a mean age of 54·4 years (SD 15·6). Air pollution (odds ratio 1·10 per 10 μg/m3 [95% CI 1·01–1·17]; p=0·0105), proportion of the population aged 65 years or older (1·19 per 1% increase [1·10–1·30]; p<0·0001), and population mobility (1·03 per 1% increase in number of visits to grocery and pharmacy stores [1·02–1·05]; p<0·0001 and 1·02 per 1% increase in number of visits to workplaces [1·00–1·03]; p=0·032) were independently associated with higher odds of mortality. Number of hospital beds (0·94 per 1-unit increase per 1000 people [0·88–1·00]; p=0·046), human development index (0·65 per 0·1-unit increase [0·44–0·96]; p=0·032), government response stringency (0·83 per 10-unit increase in containment index [0·74–0·93]; p=0·0018), as well as follow-up time (0·78 per month [0·69–0·88]; p<0·0001) were independently associated with lower odds of mortality. These factors sufficiently explained country-level variations in death attributable to COVID-19 (intraclass correlation coefficient 1·2% [0·1–9·5]; p=0·14).Interpretation: Our findings highlight the importance of environmental and societal factors as potential explanations of the observed regional disparities in COVID-19 outcomes among people with rheumatic disease and lay foundation for a new research agenda to address these disparities.
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| 10. |
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| 11. |
- Mostafavi, E.S., et al.
(författare)
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A hybrid computational approach to estimate solar global radiation: An empirical evidence from Iran
- 2013
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Ingår i: Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0360-5442. ; 49:1, s. 204-210
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents an innovative hybrid approach for the estimation of the solar global radiation. New prediction equations were developed for the global radiation using an integrated search method of genetic programming (GP) and simulated annealing (SA), called GP/SA. The solar radiation was formulated in terms of several climatological and meteorological parameters. Comprehensive databases containing monthly data collected for 6 years in two cities of Iran were used to develop GP/SA-based models. Separate models were established for each city. The generalization of the models was verified using a separate testing database. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to investigate the contribution of the parameters affecting the solar radiation. The derived models make accurate predictions of the solar global radiation and notably outperform the existing models.
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| 12. |
- Sparks, JA, et al.
(författare)
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Associations of baseline use of biologic or targeted synthetic DMARDs with COVID-19 severity in rheumatoid arthritis: Results from the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance physician registry
- 2021
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Ingår i: Annals of the rheumatic diseases. - : BMJ. - 1468-2060 .- 0003-4967. ; 80:9, s. 1137-1146
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To investigate baseline use of biologic or targeted synthetic (b/ts) disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) and COVID-19 outcomes in rheumatoid arthritis (RA).MethodsWe analysed the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance physician registry (from 24 March 2020 to 12 April 2021). We investigated b/tsDMARD use for RA at the clinical onset of COVID-19 (baseline): abatacept (ABA), rituximab (RTX), Janus kinase inhibitors (JAKi), interleukin 6 inhibitors (IL-6i) or tumour necrosis factor inhibitors (TNFi, reference group). The ordinal COVID-19 severity outcome was (1) no hospitalisation, (2) hospitalisation without oxygen, (3) hospitalisation with oxygen/ventilation or (4) death. We used ordinal logistic regression to estimate the OR (odds of being one level higher on the ordinal outcome) for each drug class compared with TNFi, adjusting for potential baseline confounders.ResultsOf 2869 people with RA (mean age 56.7 years, 80.8% female) on b/tsDMARD at the onset of COVID-19, there were 237 on ABA, 364 on RTX, 317 on IL-6i, 563 on JAKi and 1388 on TNFi. Overall, 613 (21%) were hospitalised and 157 (5.5%) died. RTX (OR 4.15, 95% CI 3.16 to 5.44) and JAKi (OR 2.06, 95% CI 1.60 to 2.65) were each associated with worse COVID-19 severity compared with TNFi. There were no associations between ABA or IL6i and COVID-19 severity.ConclusionsPeople with RA treated with RTX or JAKi had worse COVID-19 severity than those on TNFi. The strong association of RTX and JAKi use with poor COVID-19 outcomes highlights prioritisation of risk mitigation strategies for these people.
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| 13. |
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| 14. |
- Sattui, Sebastian E., et al.
(författare)
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Outcomes of COVID-19 in patients with primary systemic vasculitis or polymyalgia rheumatica from the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance physician registry : a retrospective cohort study
- 2021
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Ingår i: The Lancet Rheumatology. - : Elsevier. - 2665-9913. ; 3:12, s. E855-E864
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Patients with primary systemic vasculitis or polymyalgia rheumatica might be at a high risk for poor COVID-19 outcomes due to the treatments used, the potential organ damage cause by primary systemic vasculitis, and the demographic factors associated with these conditions. We therefore aimed to investigate factors associated with COVID-19 outcomes in patients with primary systemic vasculitis or polymyalgia rheumatica. Methods In this retrospective cohort study, adult patients (aged >= 18 years) diagnosed with COVID-19 between March 12, 2020, and April 12, 2021, who had a history of primary systemic vasculitis (antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody [ANCA]-associated vasculitis, giant cell arteritis, Behcet's syndrome, or other vasculitis) or polymyalgia rheumatica, and were reported to the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance registry were included. To assess COVID-19 outcomes in patients, we used an ordinal COVID-19 severity scale, defined as: (1) no hospitalisation; (2) hospitalisation without supplemental oxygen; (3) hospitalisation with any supplemental oxygen or ventilation; or (4) death. Multivariable ordinal logistic regression analyses were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs), adjusting for age, sex, time period, number of comorbidities, smoking status, obesity, glucocorticoid use, disease activity, region, and medication category. Analyses were also stratified by type of rheumatic disease. Findings Of 1202 eligible patients identified in the registry, 733 (61.0%) were women arid 469 (39.0%) were men, and their mean age was 63.8 years (SD 17.1). A total of 374 (31.1%) patients had polymyalgia rheumatica, 353 (29.4%) had ANCA-associated vasculitis, 183 (15.2%) had giant cell arteritis, 112 (9.3%) had Behcet's syndrome, and 180 (15.0%) had other vasculitis. Of 1020 (84. 9%) patients with outcome data, 512 (S0.2%) were not hospitalised, 114 (11.2%) were hospitalised and did not receive supplemental oxygen, 239 (23 - 4%) were hospitalised and received ventilation or supplemental oxygen, and 155 (15.2%) died. A higher odds of poor COVID-19 outcomes were observed in patients who were older (per each additional decade of life OR 1.44 [95% CI 1. 31-1- 571), were male compared with female (1.38 [1.05-1.801), had more comorbidities (per each additional comorbidity 1.39 [1- 23-1- 581), were taking 10 mg/day or more of prednisolone compared with none (2.14 [1.50-3.04J), or had moderate, or high or severe disease activity compared with those who had disease remission or low disease activity (2.12 [1.49-3.021). Risk factors varied among different disease subtypes. Interpretation Among patients with primary systemic vasculitis and polymyalgia rheumatica, severe COVID-19 outcomes were associated with variable and largely unmodifiable risk factors, such as age, sex, and number of comorbidities, as well as treatments, including high-dose glucocorticoids. Our results could be used to info rm mitigation strategies for patients with these diseases.
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| 15. |
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| 17. |
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| 18. |
- Agudelo, LZ, et al.
(författare)
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Skeletal muscle PGC-1α1 reroutes kynurenine metabolism to increase energy efficiency and fatigue-resistance
- 2019
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Ingår i: Nature communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 10:1, s. 2767-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The coactivator PGC-1α1 is activated by exercise training in skeletal muscle and promotes fatigue-resistance. In exercised muscle, PGC-1α1 enhances the expression of kynurenine aminotransferases (Kats), which convert kynurenine into kynurenic acid. This reduces kynurenine-associated neurotoxicity and generates glutamate as a byproduct. Here, we show that PGC-1α1 elevates aspartate and glutamate levels and increases the expression of glycolysis and malate-aspartate shuttle (MAS) genes. These interconnected processes improve energy utilization and transfer fuel-derived electrons to mitochondrial respiration. This PGC-1α1-dependent mechanism allows trained muscle to use kynurenine metabolism to increase the bioenergetic efficiency of glucose oxidation. Kat inhibition with carbidopa impairs aspartate biosynthesis, mitochondrial respiration, and reduces exercise performance and muscle force in mice. Our findings show that PGC-1α1 activates the MAS in skeletal muscle, supported by kynurenine catabolism, as part of the adaptations to endurance exercise. This crosstalk between kynurenine metabolism and the MAS may have important physiological and clinical implications.
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| 19. |
- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(författare)
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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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| 20. |
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| 21. |
- Strangfeld, Anja, et al.
(författare)
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Factors associated with COVID-19-related death in people with rheumatic diseases : results from the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance physician-reported registry
- 2021
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Ingår i: Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 0003-4967 .- 1468-2060. ; 80:7, s. 930-942
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objectives: To determine factors associated with COVID-19-related death in people with rheumatic diseases.Methods: Physician-reported registry of adults with rheumatic disease and confirmed or presumptive COVID-19 (from 24 March to 1 July 2020). The primary outcome was COVID-19-related death. Age, sex, smoking status, comorbidities, rheumatic disease diagnosis, disease activity and medications were included as covariates in multivariable logistic regression models. Analyses were further stratified according to rheumatic disease category.Results: Of 3729 patients (mean age 57 years, 68% female), 390 (10.5%) died. Independent factors associated with COVID-19-related death were age (66-75 years: OR 3.00, 95% CI 2.13 to 4.22; >75 years: 6.18, 4.47 to 8.53; both vs ≤65 years), male sex (1.46, 1.11 to 1.91), hypertension combined with cardiovascular disease (1.89, 1.31 to 2.73), chronic lung disease (1.68, 1.26 to 2.25) and prednisolone-equivalent dosage >10 mg/day (1.69, 1.18 to 2.41; vs no glucocorticoid intake). Moderate/high disease activity (vs remission/low disease activity) was associated with higher odds of death (1.87, 1.27 to 2.77). Rituximab (4.04, 2.32 to 7.03), sulfasalazine (3.60, 1.66 to 7.78), immunosuppressants (azathioprine, cyclophosphamide, ciclosporin, mycophenolate or tacrolimus: 2.22, 1.43 to 3.46) and not receiving any disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drug (DMARD) (2.11, 1.48 to 3.01) were associated with higher odds of death, compared with methotrexate monotherapy. Other synthetic/biological DMARDs were not associated with COVID-19-related death.Conclusion: Among people with rheumatic disease, COVID-19-related death was associated with known general factors (older age, male sex and specific comorbidities) and disease-specific factors (disease activity and specific medications). The association with moderate/high disease activity highlights the importance of adequate disease control with DMARDs, preferably without increasing glucocorticoid dosages. Caution may be required with rituximab, sulfasalazine and some immunosuppressants.
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| 26. |
- Ferreira, Duarte M. S., et al.
(författare)
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LIM and cysteine-rich domains 1 (LMCD1) regulates skeletal muscle hypertrophy, calcium handling, and force
- 2019
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Ingår i: Skeletal Muscle. - : BioMed Central. - 2044-5040. ; 9:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Skeletal muscle mass and strength are crucial determinants of health. Muscle mass loss is associated with weakness, fatigue, and insulin resistance. In fact, it is predicted that controlling muscle atrophy can reduce morbidity and mortality associated with diseases such as cancer cachexia and sarcopenia.Methods: We analyzed gene expression data from muscle of mice or human patients with diverse muscle pathologies and identified LMCD1 as a gene strongly associated with skeletal muscle function. We transiently expressed or silenced LMCD1 in mouse gastrocnemius muscle or in mouse primary muscle cells and determined muscle/cell size, targeted gene expression, kinase activity with kinase arrays, protein immunoblotting, and protein synthesis levels. To evaluate force, calcium handling, and fatigue, we transduced the flexor digitorum brevis muscle with a LMCD1-expressing adenovirus and measured specific force and sarcoplasmic reticulum Ca2+ release in individual fibers. Finally, to explore the relationship between LMCD1 and calcineurin, we ectopically expressed Lmcd1 in the gastrocnemius muscle and treated those mice with cyclosporine A (calcineurin inhibitor). In addition, we used a luciferase reporter construct containing the myoregulin gene promoter to confirm the role of a LMCD1-calcineurin-myoregulin axis in skeletal muscle mass control and calcium handling.Results: Here, we identify LIM and cysteine-rich domains 1 (LMCD1) as a positive regulator of muscle mass, that increases muscle protein synthesis and fiber size. LMCD1 expression in vivo was sufficient to increase specific force with lower requirement for calcium handling and to reduce muscle fatigue. Conversely, silencing LMCD1 expression impairs calcium handling and force, and induces muscle fatigue without overt atrophy. The actions of LMCD1 were dependent on calcineurin, as its inhibition using cyclosporine A reverted the observed hypertrophic phenotype. Finally, we determined that LMCD1 represses the expression of myoregulin, a known negative regulator of muscle performance. Interestingly, we observed that skeletal muscle LMCD1 expression is reduced in patients with skeletal muscle disease.Conclusions: Our gain- and loss-of-function studies show that LMCD1 controls protein synthesis, muscle fiber size, specific force, Ca2+ handling, and fatigue resistance. This work uncovers a novel role for LMCD1 in the regulation of skeletal muscle mass and function with potential therapeutic implications.
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| 27. |
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| 28. |
- Pettersson-Klein, A. T., et al.
(författare)
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Small molecule PGC-1 alpha 1 protein stabilizers induce adipocyte Ucp1 expression and uncoupled mitochondrial respiration
- 2018
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Ingår i: Molecular metabolism. - : Elsevier BV. - 2212-8778. ; 9, s. 28-42
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: The peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-gamma coactivator-1 alpha 1 (PGC-1 alpha 1) regulates genes involved in energy metabolism. Increasing adipose tissue energy expenditure through PGC-1 alpha 1 activation is potentially beneficial for systemic metabolism. Pharmacological PGC-1 alpha 1 activators could be valuable tools in the fight against obesity and metabolic disease. Finding such compounds has been challenging partly because PGC-1 alpha 1 is a transcriptional coactivator with no known ligand-binding properties. While, PGC-1 alpha 1 activation is regulated by several mechanisms, protein stabilization is a crucial limiting step due to its short half-life under unstimulated conditions.Methods: We designed a cell-based high-throughput screening system to identify PGC-1 alpha 1 protein stabilizers. Positive hits were tested for their ability to induce endogenous PGC-1 alpha 1 protein accumulation and activate target gene expression in brown adipocytes. Select compounds were analyzed for their effects on global gene expression and cellular respiration in adipocytes.Results: Among 7,040 compounds screened, we highlight four small molecules with high activity as measured by: PGC-1 alpha 1 protein accumulation, target gene expression, and uncoupled mitochondrial respiration in brown adipocytes.Conclusions: We identify compounds that induce PGC-1 alpha 1 protein accumulation and show that this increases uncoupled respiration in brown adipocytes. This screening platform establishes the foundation for a new class of therapeutics with potential use in obesity and associated disorders.
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