| 1. |
- Sherratt, K., et al.
(författare)
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Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
- 2023
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
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| 2. |
- Gretarsdottir, Solveig, et al.
(författare)
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Genome-wide association study identifies a sequence variant within the DAB2IP gene conferring susceptibility to abdominal aortic aneurysm
- 2010
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Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1546-1718 .- 1061-4036. ; 42:8, s. 71-692
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We performed a genome-wide association study on 1,292 individuals with abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) and 30,503 controls from Iceland and The Netherlands, with a follow-up of top markers in up to 3,267 individuals with AAAs and 7,451 controls. The A allele of rs7025486 on 9q33 was found to associate with AAA, with an odds ratio (OR) of 1.21 and P = 4.6 x 10(-10). In tests for association with other vascular diseases, we found that rs7025486[A] is associated with early onset myocardial infarction (OR = 1.18, P = 3.1 x 10(-5)), peripheral arterial disease (OR = 1.14, P = 3.9 x 10(-5)) and pulmonary embolism (OR = 1.20, P = 0.00030), but not with intracranial aneurysm or ischemic stroke. No association was observed between rs7025486[A] and common risk factors for arterial and venous diseases-that is, smoking, lipid levels, obesity, type 2 diabetes and hypertension. Rs7025486 is located within DAB2IP, which encodes an inhibitor of cell growth and survival.
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| 3. |
- Oddsson, Asmundur, et al.
(författare)
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Deficit of homozygosity among 1.52 million individuals and genetic causes of recessive lethality
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Nature. - 2041-1723. ; 14:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Genotypes causing pregnancy loss and perinatal mortality are depleted among living individuals and are therefore difficult to find. To explore genetic causes of recessive lethality, we searched for sequence variants with deficit of homozygosity among 1.52 million individuals from six European populations. In this study, we identified 25 genes harboring protein-altering sequence variants with a strong deficit of homozygosity (10% or less of predicted homozygotes). Sequence variants in 12 of the genes cause Mendelian disease under a recessive mode of inheritance, two under a dominant mode, but variants in the remaining 11 have not been reported to cause disease. Sequence variants with a strong deficit of homozygosity are over-represented among genes essential for growth of human cell lines and genes orthologous to mouse genes known to affect viability. The function of these genes gives insight into the genetics of intrauterine lethality. We also identified 1077 genes with homozygous predicted loss-of-function genotypes not previously described, bringing the total set of genes completely knocked out in humans to 4785.
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Diaz, Sandra, et al.
(författare)
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Pervasive human-driven decline of life on Earth points to the need for transformative change
- 2019
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 366:6471
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- The human impact on life on Earth has increased sharply since the 1970s, driven by the demands of a growing population with rising average per capita income. Nature is currently supplying more materials than ever before, but this has come at the high cost of unprecedented global declines in the extent and integrity of ecosystems, distinctness of local ecological communities, abundance and number of wild species, and the number of local domesticated varieties. Such changes reduce vital benefits that people receive from nature and threaten the quality of life of future generations. Both the benefits of an expanding economy and the costs of reducing nature's benefits are unequally distributed. The fabric of life on which we all depend-nature and its contributions to people-is unravelling rapidly. Despite the severity of the threats and lack of enough progress in tackling them to date, opportunities exist to change future trajectories through transformative action. Such action must begin immediately, however, and address the root economic, social, and technological causes of nature's deterioration.
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| 6. |
- Bhatty, Asad, et al.
(författare)
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Cohort profile: the European Unified Registries On Heart Care Evaluation and Randomized Trials (EuroHeart)-acute coronary syndrome and percutaneous coronary intervention
- 2024
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Ingår i: European Heart Journal - Quality of Care and Clinical Outcomes. - : OXFORD UNIV PRESS. - 2058-5225 .- 2058-1742.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims The European Unified Registries On Heart Care Evaluation and Randomized Trials (EuroHeart) aims to improve the quality of care and clinical outcomes for patients with cardiovascular disease. The collaboration of acute coronary syndrome/percutaneous coronary intervention (ACS/PCI) registries is operational in seven vanguard European Society of Cardiology member countries.Methods and results Adults admitted to hospitals with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) are included, and individual patient-level data collected and aligned according to the internationally agreed EuroHeart data standards for ACS/PCI. The registries provide up to 155 variables spanning patient demographics and clinical characteristics, in-hospital care, in-hospital outcomes, and discharge medications. After performing statistical analyses on patient data, participating countries transfer aggregated data to EuroHeart for international reporting. Between 1st January 2022 and 31st December 2022, 40 021 admissions (STEMI 46.7%, NSTEMI 53.3%) were recorded from 192 hospitals in the seven vanguard countries: Estonia, Hungary, Iceland, Portugal, Romania, Singapore, and Sweden. The mean age for the cohort was 67.9 (standard deviation 12.6) years, and it included 12 628 (31.6%) women.Conclusion The EuroHeart collaboration of ACS/PCI registries prospectively collects and analyses individual data for ACS and PCI at a national level, after which aggregated results are transferred to the EuroHeart Data Science Centre. The collaboration will expand to other countries and provide continuous insights into the provision of clinical care and outcomes for patients with ACS and undergoing PCI. It will serve as a unique international platform for quality improvement, observational research, and registry-based clinical trials.
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| 7. |
- Bhatty, Asad, et al.
(författare)
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Cohort profile : the European Unified Registries On Heart Care Evaluation and Randomized Trials (EuroHeart)—acute coronary syndrome and percutaneous coronary intervention
- 2024
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Ingår i: European Heart Journal - Quality of Care and Clinical Outcomes. - : OXFORD UNIV PRESS. - 2058-5225 .- 2058-1742. ; 10:5, s. 386-390
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims The European Unified Registries On Heart Care Evaluation and Randomized Trials (EuroHeart) aims to improve the quality of care and clinical outcomes for patients with cardiovascular disease. The collaboration of acute coronary syndrome/percutaneous coronary intervention (ACS/PCI) registries is operational in seven vanguard European Society of Cardiology member countries. Methods and Adults admitted to hospitals with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction results (NSTEMI) are included, and individual patient-level data collected and aligned according to the internationally agreed EuroHeart data standards for ACS/PCI. The registries provide up to 155 variables spanning patient demographics and clinical characteristics, in-hospital care, in-hospital outcomes, and discharge medications. After performing statistical analyses on patient data, participating countries transfer aggregated data to EuroHeart for international reporting. Between 1st January 2022 and 31st December 2022, 40 021 admissions (STEMI 46.7%, NSTEMI 53.3%) were recorded from 192 hospitals in the seven vanguard countries: Estonia, Hungary, Iceland, Portugal, Romania, Singapore, and Sweden. The mean age for the cohort was 67.9 (standard deviation 12.6) years, and it included 12 628 (31.6%) women. Conclusion The EuroHeart collaboration of ACS/PCI registries prospectively collects and analyses individual data for ACS and PCI at a national level, after which aggregated results are transferred to the EuroHeart Data Science Centre. The collaboration will expand to other countries and provide continuous insights into the provision of clinical care and outcomes for patients with ACS and undergoing PCI. It will serve as a unique international platform for quality improvement, observational research, and registry-based clinical trials.
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| 8. |
- Thorgeirsson, Thorgeir E, et al.
(författare)
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A variant associated with nicotine dependence, lung cancer and peripheral arterial disease
- 2008
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 452:7187, s. 9-638
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Smoking is a leading cause of preventable death, causing about 5 million premature deaths worldwide each year(1,2). Evidence for genetic influence on smoking behaviour and nicotine dependence (ND)(3-8) has prompted a search for susceptibility genes. Furthermore, assessing the impact of sequence variants on smoking-related diseases is important to public health(9,10). Smoking is the major risk factor for lung cancer (LC)(11-14) and is one of the main risk factors for peripheral arterial disease (PAD)(15-17). Here we identify a common variant in the nicotinic acetylcholine receptor gene cluster on chromosome 15q24 with an effect on smoking quantity, ND and the risk of two smoking- related diseases in populations of European descent. The variant has an effect on the number of cigarettes smoked per day in our sample of smokers. The same variant was associated with ND in a previous genomewide association study that used low- quantity smokers as controls(18,19), and with a similar approach we observe a highly significant association with ND. A comparison of cases of LC and PAD with population controls each showed that the variant confers risk of LC and PAD. The findings provide a case study of a gene - environment interaction(20), highlighting the role of nicotine addiction in the pathology of other serious diseases.
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| 9. |
- Cardinale, Daniele A., 1982-, et al.
(författare)
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Enhanced Skeletal Muscle Oxidative Capacity and Capillary-to-Fiber Ratio Following Moderately Increased Testosterone Exposure in Young Healthy Women
- 2020
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Physiology. - : Frontiers Media S.A.. - 1664-042X. ; 11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Recently, it was shown that exogenously administered testosterone enhances endurance capacity in women. In this study, our understanding on the effects of exogenous testosterone on key determinants of oxygen transport and utilization in skeletal muscle is expanded.Methods: In a double-blinded, randomized, placebo-controlled trial, 48 healthy active women were randomized to 10 weeks of daily application of 10 mg of testosterone cream or placebo. Before and after the intervention, VO2 max, body composition, total hemoglobin (Hb) mass and blood volumes were assessed. Biopsies from the vastus lateralis muscle were obtained before and after the intervention to assess mitochondrial protein abundance, capillary density, capillary-to-fiber (C/F) ratio, and skeletal muscle oxidative capacity.Results: Maximal oxygen consumption per muscle mass, Hb mass, blood, plasma and red blood cell volumes, capillary density, and the abundance of mitochondrial protein levels (i.e., citrate synthase, complexes I, II, III, IV-subunit 2, IV-subunit 4, and V) were unchanged by the intervention. However, the C/F ratio, specific mitochondrial respiratory flux activating complex I and linked complex I and II, uncoupled respiration and electron transport system capacity, but not leak respiration or fat respiration, were significantly increased following testosterone administration compared to placebo.Conclusion: This study provides novel insights into physiological actions of increased testosterone exposure on key determinants of oxygen diffusion and utilization in skeletal muscle of women. Our findings show that higher skeletal muscle oxidative capacity coupled to higher C/F ratio could be major contributing factors that improve endurance performance following moderately increased testosterone exposure.
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| 10. |
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| 11. |
- Fice, Jason, 1985, et al.
(författare)
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Neck Muscle and Head/Neck Kinematic Responses While Bracing Against the Steering Wheel During Front and Rear Impacts
- 2021
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Ingår i: Annals of Biomedical Engineering. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1573-9686 .- 0090-6964. ; 49:3, s. 1069-1082
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Drivers often react to an impending collision by bracing against the steering wheel. The goal of the present study was to quantify the effect of bracing on neck muscle activity and head/torso kinematics during low-speed front and rear impacts. Eleven seated subjects (3F, 8 M) experienced multiple sled impacts (Delta v = 0.77 m/s; a(peak) = 19.9 m/s(2), Delta t = 65.5 ms) with their hands on the steering wheel in two conditions: relaxed and braced against the steering wheel. Electromyographic activity in eight neck muscles (sternohyoid, sternocleidomastoid, splenius capitis, semispinalis capitis, semispinalis cervicis, multifidus, levator scapulae, and trapezius) was recorded unilaterally with indwelling electrodes and normalized by maximum voluntary contraction (MVC) levels. Head and torso kinematics (linear acceleration, angular velocity, angular rotation, and retraction) were measured with sensors and motion tracking. Muscle and kinematic variables were compared between the relaxed and braced conditions using linear mixed models. We found that pre-impact bracing generated only small increases in the pre-impact muscle activity (< 5% MVC) when compared to the relaxed condition. Pre-impact bracing did not increase peak neck muscle responses during the impacts; instead it reduced peak trapezius and multifidus muscle activity by about half during front impacts. Bracing led to widespread changes in the peak amplitude and timing of the torso and head kinematics that were not consistent with a simple stiffening of the head/neck/torso system. Instead pre-impact bracing served to couple the torso more rigidly to the seat while not necessarily coupling the head more rigidly to the torso.
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| 12. |
- Garoarsdottir, Helga Run, et al.
(författare)
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Árangur kransæðahjáveituaðgerða hjá konum á Íslandi
- 2018
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Ingår i: Laeknabladid. - : LAEKNAFELAG ISLANDS-ICELANDIC MEDICAL ASSOC. - 0023-7213 .- 1670-4959. ; 104:7-8, s. 335-340
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- InngangurMarkmið þessarar rannsóknar var að bera saman árangur kransæða-hjáveituaðgerða hjá konum og körlum á Íslandi með áherslu á snemm- og síðkomna fylgikvilla, 30 daga dánartíðni og langtímalifun.Efniviður og aðferðirAfturskyggn rannsókn á öllum sjúklingum sem gengust undir kransæðahjáveituaðgerð á Íslandi á árunum 2001-2013. Upplýsingar fengust úr sjúkraskrám og Dánarmeinaskrá Embættis landlæknis. Fylgikvillum var skipt í snemm- og síðkomna fylgikvilla og heildarlif-un reiknuð með aðferð Kaplan-Meier. Fjölþátta aðhvarfsgreining var notuð til að meta forspárþætti dauða innan 30 daga og Cox aðhvarfs-greining til að meta forspárþætti verri langtímalifunar. Meðaleftirfylgd var 6,8 ár. NiðurstöðurAf 1755 sjúklingum voru 318 konur (18%). Meðalaldur þeirra var fjórum árum hærri en karla (69 ár á móti 65 árum, p<0,001), þær höfðu oftar sögu um háþrýsting (72% á móti 64%, p=0,009) og EuroSCOREst þeirra var hærra (6,1 á móti 4,3, p<0,001). Hlutfall annarra áhættu-þátta eins og sykursýki var hins vegar sambærilegt, líkt og útbreiðsla kransæðasjúkdóms. Alls létust 12 konur (4%) og 30 karlar (2%) innan 30 daga frá aðgerð en munurinn var ekki marktækur (p=0,08). Tíðni snemmkominna fylgikvilla, bæði minniháttar (53% á móti 48% p=0,07) og alvarlegra (13% á móti 11%, p=0,2), var sambærileg. Fimm árum frá aðgerð var lifun kvenna 87% borin saman við 90% hjá körlum (p=0,09). Þá var tíðni síðkominna fylgikvilla sambærileg hjá konum og körlum 5 árum frá aðgerð (21% á móti 19%, p=0,3). Kvenkyn reyndist hvorki sjálfstæður forspárþáttur 30 daga dánartíðni (OR 0,99; 95%-ÖB: 0,97-1,01) né verri lifunar (HR 1,08; 95%-ÖB: 0,82-1,42).Ályktun Mun færri konur en karlar gangast undir kransæðahjáveituaðgerð á Íslandi og eru þær fjórum árum eldri þegar kemur að aðgerð. Árangur kransæðahjáveitu er góður hjá konum líkt og körlum, en 5 árum eftir aðgerð eru 87% kvenna á lífi.
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| 13. |
- Moiseenko, Vitali, et al.
(författare)
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A Primer on Dose-Response Data Modeling in Radiation Therapy.
- 2021
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Ingår i: International journal of radiation oncology, biology, physics. - : Elsevier BV. - 1879-355X .- 0360-3016. ; 110:1, s. 11-20
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- An overview of common approaches used to assess a dose response for radiation therapy-associated endpoints is presented, using lung toxicity data sets analyzed as a part of the High Dose per Fraction, Hypofractionated Treatment Effects in the Clinic effort as an example. Each component presented (eg, data-driven analysis, dose-response analysis, and calculating uncertainties on model prediction) is addressed using established approaches. Specifically, the maximum likelihood method was used to calculate best parameter values of the commonly used logistic model, the profile-likelihood to calculate confidence intervals on model parameters, and the likelihood ratio to determine whether the observed data fit is statistically significant. The bootstrap method was used to calculate confidence intervals for model predictions. Correlated behavior of model parameters and implication for interpreting dose response are discussed.
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