| 1. |
|
|
| 2. |
|
|
| 3. |
- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(författare)
-
- 2020
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
|
|
| 4. |
|
|
| 5. |
|
|
| 6. |
|
|
| 7. |
- Kinyoki, DK, et al.
(författare)
-
Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Nature medicine. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1546-170X .- 1078-8956. ; 26:5, s. 750-759
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic.
|
|
| 8. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
-
Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
|
|
| 9. |
|
|
| 10. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
-
Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
|
|
| 11. |
- Sbarra, AN, et al.
(författare)
-
Mapping routine measles vaccination in low- and middle-income countries
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-4687 .- 0028-0836. ; 589:7842, s. 415-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The safe, highly effective measles vaccine has been recommended globally since 1974, yet in 2017 there were more than 17 million cases of measles and 83,400 deaths in children under 5 years old, and more than 99% of both occurred in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs)1–4. Globally comparable, annual, local estimates of routine first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) coverage are critical for understanding geographically precise immunity patterns, progress towards the targets of the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP), and high-risk areas amid disruptions to vaccination programmes caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)5–8. Here we generated annual estimates of routine childhood MCV1 coverage at 5 × 5-km2pixel and second administrative levels from 2000 to 2019 in 101 LMICs, quantified geographical inequality and assessed vaccination status by geographical remoteness. After widespread MCV1 gains from 2000 to 2010, coverage regressed in more than half of the districts between 2010 and 2019, leaving many LMICs far from the GVAP goal of 80% coverage in all districts by 2019. MCV1 coverage was lower in rural than in urban locations, although a larger proportion of unvaccinated children overall lived in urban locations; strategies to provide essential vaccination services should address both geographical contexts. These results provide a tool for decision-makers to strengthen routine MCV1 immunization programmes and provide equitable disease protection for all children.
|
|
| 12. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
-
Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
|
|
| 13. |
|
|
| 14. |
|
|
| 15. |
- Burstein, R., et al.
(författare)
-
Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Nature. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 574:7778, s. 353-358
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations. © 2019, The Author(s).
|
|
| 16. |
- Cousin, E., et al.
(författare)
-
Diabetes mortality and trends before 25 years of age: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology. - : Elsevier BV. - 2213-8587. ; 10:3, s. 177-192
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Diabetes, particularly type 1 diabetes, at younger ages can be a largely preventable cause of death with the correct health care and services. We aimed to evaluate diabetes mortality and trends at ages younger than 25 years globally using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Methods We used estimates of GBD 2019 to calculate international diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years in 1990 and 2019. Data sources for causes of death were obtained from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and other surveillance systems for 1990-2019. We estimated death rates for each location using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed the association of age-standardised death rates per 100 000 population with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a measure of universal health coverage (UHC) and described the variability within SDI quintiles. We present estimates with their 95% uncertainty intervals. Findings In 2019, 16 300 (95% uncertainty interval 14 200 to 18 900) global deaths due to diabetes (type 1 and 2 combined) occurred in people younger than 25 years and 73.7% (68.3 to 77.4) were classified as due to type 1 diabetes. The age-standardised death rate was 0.50 (0.44 to 0.58) per 100 000 population, and 15 900 (97.5%) of these deaths occurred in low to high-middle SDI countries. The rate was 0.13 (0.12 to 0.14) per 100 000 population in the high SDI quintile, 0.60 (0.51 to 0.70) per 100 000 population in the low-middle SDI quintile, and 0.71 (0.60 to 0.86) per 100 000 population in the low SDI quintile. Within SDI quintiles, we observed large variability in rates across countries, in part explained by the extent of UHC (r(2)=0.62). From 1990 to 2019, age-standardised death rates decreased globally by 17.0% (-28.4 to -2.9) for all diabetes, and by 21.0% (-33.0 to -5.9) when considering only type 1 diabetes. However, the low SDI quintile had the lowest decline for both all diabetes (-13.6% [-28.4 to 3.4]) and for type 1 diabetes (-13.6% [-29.3 to 8.9]). Interpretation Decreasing diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years remains an important challenge, especially in low and low-middle SDI countries. Inadequate diagnosis and treatment of diabetes is likely to be major contributor to these early deaths, highlighting the urgent need to provide better access to insulin and basic diabetes education and care. This mortality metric, derived from readily available and frequently updated GBD data, can help to monitor preventable diabetes-related deaths over time globally, aligned with the UN's Sustainable Development Targets, and serve as an indicator of the adequacy of basic diabetes care for type 1 and type 2 diabetes across nations. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
|
|
| 17. |
|
|
| 18. |
- Cromwell, EA, et al.
(författare)
-
Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning
- 2021
-
Ingår i: PLoS neglected tropical diseases. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1935-2735. ; 15:7, s. e0008824-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0·71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50·2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5 × 5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initiation in areas that would ultimately qualify.
|
|
| 19. |
|
|
| 20. |
- Eneroth, Hanna, et al.
(författare)
-
Duration of exclusive breast-feeding and infant iron and zinc status in rural Bangladesh
- 2009
-
Ingår i: Journal of Nutrition. - : Elsevier BV. - 0022-3166 .- 1541-6100. ; 139:8, s. 1562-1567
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- There is a concern that exclusive breast-feeding (EBF) for 6 mo may lead to iron and zinc deficiency in low-birth weight (LBW) infants. We assessed the association between duration of EBF and infant iron and zinc status in the Maternal and Infant Nutrition Interventions in Matlab trial, Bangladesh, stratified for normal birth weigh (NBW) and LBW. Duration of EBF was classified into EBF <4 mo and EBF 4-6 mo based on monthly recalls of foods introduced to the infant. Blood samples collected at 6 mo were analyzed for plasma zinc (n = 1032), plasma ferritin (n = 1040), and hemoglobin (Hb) (n = 791). Infants EBF 4-6 mo had a higher mean plasma zinc concentration (9.9 +/- 2.3 micromol/L) than infants EBF <4mo (9.5 +/- 2.0 micromol/L) (P < 0.01). This association was apparent in only the NBW strata and was not reflected in a lower prevalence of zinc deficiency. Duration of EBF was not associated with concentration of plasma ferritin, Hb concentration, or prevalence of iron deficiency or anemia in any strata. Regardless of EBF duration, the prevalence of zinc deficiency, iron deficiency, and anemia was high in infants in this population and strategies to prevent deficiency are needed.
|
|
| 21. |
- Frith, Amy L, et al.
(författare)
-
Breast-feeding counselling mitigates the negative association of domestic violence on exclusive breast-feeding duration in rural Bangladesh. The MINIMat randomized trial.
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Public Health Nutrition. - : Cambridge University Press. - 1368-9800 .- 1475-2727. ; 20:15, s. 2810-2818
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: To determine if exclusive breast-feeding counselling modifies the association of experience of any lifetime or specific forms of domestic violence (DV) on duration of exclusive breast-feeding (EBF).DESIGN: In the MINIMat trial pregnant women were randomized to receive either usual health messages (UHM) or usual health messages with breast-feeding counselling (BFC) in eight visits. During pregnancy (30 weeks), lifetime experience of any or specific forms of DV was measured. Infant feeding practice information was collected from 0 to 6 months at 15 d intervals.SETTING: Matlab, Bangladesh.SUBJECTS: Pregnant and postpartum women (n 3186) and their infants.RESULTS: Among women in the UHM group, those who had experienced any lifetime DV exclusively breast-fed for a shorter duration than women who did not experience any lifetime DV (P=0·02). There was no difference, however, in duration of EBF among women in the BFC group based on their experience of any lifetime DV exposure (P=0·48). Using Cox regression analysis, there was an interaction of exposure to any lifetime DV, sexual violence and controlling behaviour, and counselling group with duration of breast-feeding at or before 6 months (P-interaction≤0·08). Among the UHM group, experience of any lifetime DV, sexual violence or controlling behaviour was associated with fewer days of EBF (P<0·05). In contrast, among the BFC group, experience of DV was not associated with duration of EBF.CONCLUSIONS: The experience of DV compromises EBF and the support of breast-feeding counselling programmes could assist this vulnerable group towards better infant feeding practices.
|
|
| 22. |
|
|
| 23. |
- Islam, Md. Aminul, et al.
(författare)
-
A 30-day follow-up study on the prevalence of SARS-COV-2 genetic markers in wastewater from the residence of COVID-19 patient and comparison with clinical positivity
- 2023
-
Ingår i: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 858, s. 159350-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Wastewater based epidemiology (WBE) is an important tool to fight against COVID-19 as it provides insights into the health status of the targeted population from a small single house to a large municipality in a cost-effective, rapid, and non-invasive way. The implementation of wastewater based surveillance (WBS) could reduce the burden on the public health system, management of pandemics, help to make informed decisions, and protect public health. In this study, a house with COVID-19 patients was targeted for monitoring the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 genetic markers in wastewa-ter samples (WS) with clinical specimens (CS) for a period of 30 days. RT-qPCR technique was employed to target non-structural (ORF1ab) and structural-nucleocapsid (N) protein genes of SARS-CoV-2, according to a validated experimental protocol. Physiological, environmental, and biological parameters were also measured following the American Public Health Association (APHA) standard protocols. SARS-CoV-2 viral shedding in wastewater peaked when the highest number of COVID-19 cases were clinically diagnosed. Throughout the study period, 7450 to 23,000 gene copies/1000 mL were detected, where we identified 47 % (57/120) positive samples from WS and 35 % (128/360) from CS. When the COVID-19 patient number was the lowest (2), the highest CT value (39.4; i.e., lowest copy number) was identified from WS. On the other hand, when the COVID-19 patients were the highest (6), the lowest CT value (25.2 i.e., highest copy numbers) was obtained from WS. An advance signal of increased SARS-CoV-2 viral load from the COVID-19 patient was found in WS earlier than in the CS. Using customized primer sets in a traditional PCR approach, we confirmed that all SARS-CoV-2 variants identified in both CS and WS were Delta variants (B.1.617.2). To our knowledge, this is the first follow-up study to determine a temporal relationship be-tween COVID-19 patients and their discharge of SARS-CoV-2 RNA genetic markers in wastewater from a single house including all family members for clinical sampling from a developing country (Bangladesh), where a proper sewage system is lacking. The salient findings of the study indicate that monitoring the genetic markers of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in wastewater could identify COVID-19 cases, which reduces the burden on the public health system during COVID-19 pandemics.
|
|
| 24. |
|
|
| 25. |
- Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al.
(författare)
-
Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
|
|
| 26. |
- Khan, Ashraful, 1969-, et al.
(författare)
-
Body composition of Bangladeshi children: comparison and development of leg-to-leg bioelectrical impedance equation
- 2012
-
Ingår i: Journal of Health, Population and Nutrition. - 1606-0997 .- 2072-1315. ; 30:3, s. 281-290
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The aim of this study was to investigate the validity of the Tanita TBF 300A leg-to-leg bioimpedance analyzer for estimating fat-free mass (FFM) in Bangladeshi children aged 4-10 years and to develop novel prediction equations for use in this population, using deuterium dilution as the reference method. Two hundred Bangladeshi children were enrolled. The isotope dilution technique with deuterium oxide was used for estimation of total body water (TBW). FFM estimated by Tanita was compared to results of deuterium oxide dilution technique. Novel prediction equations were created for estimating FFM, using linear regression models, fitting child height and impedance as predictors. There was a significant difference in FFM and BF% (percentage of body fat) between methods (p<0.01), Tanita under-estimating TBW in boys (p=0.001) and under-estimating BF% in girls (p<0.001). A basic linear regression model with height and impedance explained 83% of the variance in FFM estimated by deuterium oxide dilution. The best fit equation to predict FFM from linear regression modeling was achieved by adding weight, sex and age to the basic model, bringing the adjusted R2 to 89% (standard error=0.90, p<0.001). These data suggest Tanita analyzer may be a valid field assessment technique in Bangladeshi children when using population-specific prediction equations such as the ones developed here.
|
|
| 27. |
- Khan, Ashraful, 1969-, et al.
(författare)
-
Early invitation to food and/or multiple micronutrient supplementation in pregnancy does not affect body composition in offspring at 54 months : follow-up of the MINIMat randomized trial, Bangladesh
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Maternal and Child Nutrition. - : Wiley. - 1740-8695 .- 1740-8709. ; 11:3, s. 385-397
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Growth patterns in early life are associated with later health. The effect of nutrition during in utero development on later body composition is unclear. We evaluated whether prenatal early invitation to food and/or multiple micronutrient supplementation (MMS) in pregnancy has an effect on offspring body composition at 54 months of age. In Maternal and Infant Nutrition Interventions in Matlab trial (ISRCTN16581394) in Bangladesh, 4436 pregnant women were randomised into six equally sized groups: double-masked supplementation with capsules of either 30mg Fe and 400g folic acid, or 60mg Fe and 400g folic acid, or MMS (15 micronutrients), was combined with a randomised early invitation (around 9 weeks) or a usual invitation (around 20 weeks) to start food supplementation (608kcal 6 days per week). At 54 months, the body composition of the offspring was assessed by leg-to-leg bioelectrical impedance analysis. Of the 3267 live singletons with birth anthropometry, 2290 children were measured at 54 months, representing 70% of the live births. There was no interaction between the food and micronutrient supplementation on body composition outcomes. There were no significant differences in a range of anthropometric and body composition measurements, including weight, height, mid-upper arm circumference, head circumference, skinfold thickness, and fat mass and fat-free mass between the different prenatal food and micronutrient groups using an intention-to-treat analysis. This analysis shows that early invitation to food supplementation and MMS provided to rural Bangladeshi women during pregnancy did not affect offspring body composition at 54 months of age.
|
|
| 28. |
- Khan, Ashraful Islam, 1969-, et al.
(författare)
-
Effect of a randomised exclusive breastfeeding counselling intervention nested into the MINIMat prenatal nutrition trial in Bangladesh
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Acta Paediatrica. - : Wiley. - 0803-5253 .- 1651-2227. ; 106:1, s. 49-54
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- AIM: It is unknown whether maternal malnutrition reduces the effect of counselling on exclusive breastfeeding. This study evaluated the effect of breastfeeding counselling on the duration of exclusive breastfeeding, and whether the timing of prenatal food and different micronutrient supplements further prolonged this duration.METHODS: Pregnant women in Matlab, Bangladesh, were randomised to receive daily food supplements of 600 kcal at nine weeks of gestation or at the standard 20 weeks. They also were allocated to either 30 mg of iron and 400 μg folic acid, or the standard programme 60 mg of iron and folic acid or multiple micronutrients. At 30 weeks of gestation, 3188 women were randomised to receive either eight breastfeeding counselling sessions or the usual health messages.RESULTS: The median duration of exclusive breastfeeding was 135 days in the counselling group and 75 days in the usual health message group (p < 0.001). Prenatal supplements did not modify the effects of counselling. Women in the usual health message group who were randomised to multiple micronutrients exclusively breastfed for 12 days longer than mothers receiving the standard iron-folate combination (p = 0.003).CONCLUSION: Breastfeeding counselling increased the duration of exclusive breastfeeding by 60 days. This duration was not influenced by the supplements.
|
|
| 29. |
- Khan, Ashraful Islam, 1969-, et al.
(författare)
-
Effects of exclusive breastfeeding intervention on child growth and body composition : the MINIMat trial, Bangladesh
- 2013
-
Ingår i: Acta Paediatrica. - : Wiley. - 0803-5253 .- 1651-2227. ; 102:8, s. 815-823
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- AIM:Exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) for 6 months is recommended for optimal infant health, but the evidence for longer-term impacts is weak. We examined whether randomization to receive EBF counselling (BFC) in rural Bangladeshi women had an impact on childhood growth trajectories and body composition.METHODS:In the Maternal and Infant Nutrition Interventions in Matlab trial, 4436 pregnant women were randomized to six equally sized, food and micronutrient groups. Of these, 3214 were randomized during the last trimester of pregnancy to receive either BFC or the usual/standard health message (UHM). Their infants were extensively followed up, with anthropometric measurements between 0 and 54 months and assessment of body composition at 54 months.RESULTS:The mean duration of EBF in the BFC group was 111 days compared to 76 days in the UHM group (mean difference: 35.0 days, 95% CI 30.6-39.5, p < 0.001). There was no difference in growth trajectories between the BFC and UHM groups and no difference in body composition at 54 months. Children exposed to prenatal multiple micronutrients (vs 60 mg iron and folate) combined with BFC (vs UHM), however, had slower linear growth (mean difference -0.17 SD score, p < 0.01).CONCLUSION:Exclusive breastfeeding counselling resulted in neither differential growth trajectories in infancy and childhood, nor body composition differences at 54 months. The combination of prenatal multiple micronutrient supplementation (MMS) and BFC was unfavourable for linear growth during 0-54 months, which raises questions about possible negative effects of MMS.
|
|
| 30. |
- Khan, Ashraful Islam, 1969-, et al.
(författare)
-
Effects of prenatal food and micronutrient supplementation on child growth from birth to 54 months of age : a randomized trial in Bangladesh
- 2011
-
Ingår i: Nutrition Journal. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1475-2891. ; 10, s. 134-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: There is a lack of information on the optimal timing of food supplementation to malnourished pregnant women and possible combined effects of food and multiple micronutrient supplementations (MMS) on their offspring's growth. We evaluated the effects of prenatal food and micronutrient interventions on postnatal child growth. The hypothesis was that prenatal MMS and early invitation to food supplementation would increase physical growth in the offspring during 0-54 months and a combination of these interventions would further improve these outcomes. METHODS: In the large, randomized MINIMat trial (Maternal and Infant Nutrition Interventions in Matlab), Bangladesh, 4436 pregnant women were enrolled between November 2001 and October 2003 and their children were followed until March 2009. Participants were randomized into six groups comprising 30 mg Fe and 400 ug folic acid (Fe30F), 60 mg Fe and 400 ug folic acid (Fe60F) or MMS combined with either an early (immediately after identification of pregnancy) or a later usual (at the time of their choosing, i.e., usual care in this community) program invitation to food supplementation. The anthropometry of 3267 children was followed from birth to 54 months, and 2735 children were available for analysis at 54 months. RESULTS: There were no differences in characteristics of mothers and households among the different intervention groups. The average birth weight was 2694 g and birth length was 47.7 cm, with no difference among intervention groups. Early invitation to food supplementation (in comparison with usual invitation) reduced the proportion of stunting from early infancy up to 54 months for boys (p=0.01), but not for girls (p=0.31). MMS resulted in more stunting than standard Fe60F (p=0.02). There was no interaction between the food and micronutrient supplementation on the growth outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Early food supplementation in pregnancy reduced the occurrence of stunting during 0-54 months in boys, but not in girls, and prenatal MMS increased the proportion of stunting in boys. These effects on postnatal growth suggest programming effects in early fetal life. The study is registered as an International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN16581394.
|
|
| 31. |
- Kippler, Maria, et al.
(författare)
-
Early life low-level cadmium exposure is positively associated with increased oxidative stress
- 2012
-
Ingår i: Environmental Research. - : Elsevier BV. - 1096-0953 .- 0013-9351. ; 112, s. 164-170
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Environmental exposure to cadmium (Cd) is known to induce oxidative stress, a state of imbalance between the production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and the ability to detoxify them, in adults. However, data are lacking on potential effects in early-life. We evaluated urinary concentrations of 8-oxo-7,8-dihydro-2'-deoxyguanosine (8-oxodG), a recognized marker of oxidative DNA damage, in relation to Cd exposure in 96 predominantly breast-fed infants (11-17 weeks of age) in rural Bangladesh. Urinary 8-oxodG was measured using liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry and Cd in urine and breast milk by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Median concentration of 8-oxodG was 3.9 nmol/L, urinary Cd 0.30 mu g/L, and breast-milk Cd 0.13 mu g/L. In linear regression analyses, urinary 8-oxodG was positively associated with Cd in both urine (p=0.00067) and breast milk (p=0.0021), and negatively associated with body weight (kg: p=0.0041). Adjustment for age, body weight, socio-economic status, urinary arsenic, as well as magnesium, calcium, and copper in breast milk did not change the association between Cd exposure and urinary 8-oxodG. These findings suggest that early-life low-level exposure to Cd via breast milk induces oxidative stress. Further studies are warranted to elucidate whether this oxidative stress is associated with impaired child health and development. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
|
|
| 32. |
|
|
| 33. |
- Moore, Sophie E., et al.
(författare)
-
Use of stable-isotope techniques to validate infant feeding practices reported by Bangladeshi women receiving breastfeeding counseling
- 2007
-
Ingår i: American Journal of Clinical Nutrition. - 0002-9165 .- 1938-3207. ; 85:4, s. 1075-1082
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: The World Health Organization recommends exclusive breastfeeding until age 6 mo. Studies relying on mothers' self-reported behaviors have shown that lactation counseling increases both the rate and duration of exclusive breastfeeding. Objective: We aimed to validate reported infant feeding practices in rural Bangladesh; intakes of breast milk and nonbreast-milk water were measured by the dose-given-to-the mother deuterium dilution technique. Design: Subjects were drawn from the large-scale Maternal and Infant Nutrition Interventions, Matlab, study of combined interventions to improve maternal and infant health, in which women were randomly assigned to receive either exclusive breastfeeding counseling or standard health care messages. Data on infant feeding practices were collected by questionnaire at monthly visits. Intakes of breast milk and nonbreast-milk water were measured in a subsample of 98 mother-infant pairs (mean infant age: 14.3 wk) and compared with questionnaire data reporting feeding practices. Results: Seventy-five of the 98 subjects reported exclusive breastfeeding. Mean (±SD) breast milk intake was 884 ± 163 mL/d in that group and 791 ± 180 mL/d in the group reported as nonexclusively breastfed (P = 0.0267). Intakes of nonbreast-milk water were 40 ± 80.6 and 166 ± 214 mL/d (P < 0.0001), respectively. Objective cross-validation using deuterium dilution data showed good accuracy in reporting of feeding practices, although apparent misreporting was widely present in both groups. Conclusions: The dose-given-to-the-mother deuterium dilution technique can be applied to validate reported feeding behaviors. Whereas this technique shows that the reports of feeding practices were accurate at the group level, it is not adequate to distinguish between feeding practices in individual infants.
|
|
| 34. |
|
|
| 35. |
|
|
| 36. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
-
Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
- 2016
-
Ingår i: The lancet. HIV. - : Elsevier. - 2352-3018. ; 3:8, s. e361-e387
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.METHODS: For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.FINDINGS: Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.INTERPRETATION: Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.
|
|
| 37. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
-
Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
|
|
