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- Wang, H. D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2017
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Ingår i: Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1084-1150
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. Methods We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0.5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. Findings Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86.9 years (95% UI 86.7-87.2), and for men in Singapore, at 81.3 years (78.8-83.7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016. Interpretation Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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- Vos, Theo, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
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- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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- Surendran, Praveen, et al.
(författare)
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Discovery of rare variants associated with blood pressure regulation through meta-analysis of 1.3 million individuals
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 52:12, s. 1314-1332
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Genetic studies of blood pressure (BP) to date have mainly analyzed common variants (minor allele frequency > 0.05). In a meta-analysis of up to similar to 1.3 million participants, we discovered 106 new BP-associated genomic regions and 87 rare (minor allele frequency <= 0.01) variant BP associations (P < 5 x 10(-8)), of which 32 were in new BP-associated loci and 55 were independent BP-associated single-nucleotide variants within known BP-associated regions. Average effects of rare variants (44% coding) were similar to 8 times larger than common variant effects and indicate potential candidate causal genes at new and known loci (for example, GATA5 and PLCB3). BP-associated variants (including rare and common) were enriched in regions of active chromatin in fetal tissues, potentially linking fetal development with BP regulation in later life. Multivariable Mendelian randomization suggested possible inverse effects of elevated systolic and diastolic BP on large artery stroke. Our study demonstrates the utility of rare-variant analyses for identifying candidate genes and the results highlight potential therapeutic targets.
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| 10. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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| 21. |
- Roth, Gregory A, et al.
(författare)
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Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risk Factors, 1990-2019 : Update From the GBD 2019 Study
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of the American College of Cardiology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0735-1097 .- 1558-3597. ; 76:25, s. 2982-3021
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), principally ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, are the leading cause of global mortality and a major contributor to disability. This paper reviews the magnitude of total CVD burden, including 13 underlying causes of cardiovascular death and 9 related risk factors, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. GBD, an ongoing multinational collaboration to provide comparable and consistent estimates of population health over time, used all available population-level data sources on incidence, prevalence, case fatality, mortality, and health risks to produce estimates for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Prevalent cases of total CVD nearly doubled from 271 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 257 to 285 million) in 1990 to 523 million (95% UI: 497 to 550 million) in 2019, and the number of CVD deaths steadily increased from 12.1 million (95% UI:11.4 to 12.6 million) in 1990, reaching 18.6 million (95% UI: 17.1 to 19.7 million) in 2019. The global trends for disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years of life lost also increased significantly, and years lived with disability doubled from 17.7 million (95% UI: 12.9 to 22.5 million) to 34.4 million (95% UI:24.9 to 43.6 million) over that period. The total number of DALYs due to IHD has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 182 million (95% UI: 170 to 194 million) DALYs, 9.14 million (95% UI: 8.40 to 9.74 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 197 million (95% UI: 178 to 220 million) prevalent cases of IHD in 2019. The total number of DALYs due to stroke has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 143 million (95% UI: 133 to 153 million) DALYs, 6.55 million (95% UI: 6.00 to 7.02 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 101 million (95% UI: 93.2 to 111 million) prevalent cases of stroke in 2019. Cardiovascular diseases remain the leading cause of disease burden in the world. CVD burden continues its decades-long rise for almost all countries outside high-income countries, and alarmingly, the age-standardized rate of CVD has begun to rise in some locations where it was previously declining in high-income countries. There is an urgent need to focus on implementing existing cost-effective policies and interventions if the world is to meet the targets for Sustainable Development Goal 3 and achieve a 30% reduction in premature mortality due to noncommunicable diseases.
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- Alahamami, Mastour A., et al.
(författare)
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Comparison of cysts in red and green images for diabetic macular edema
- 2014
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose: To improve the detection of macular cyst with photoscreening, we tested whether in a population of largely minority patients the red channel image from a color fundus camera visualizes cysts in diabetic macular edema better than the green channel image. In assessing diabetic retinas for clinically significant macular edema, the presence of cysts must be judged with respect to the central macula. Some grading programs use red free images, often derived from green channel images, to enhance visualization of retinal vessel damage or macular pigment, but some red and near infrared instruments have detected cysts better than short wavelength techniques. Methods: We evaluated macular cysts in 13 diabetic patients diagnosed with clinically significant macular edema, age range 33-68 years. Diabetic patients were selected from the screening study of >2000 underserved patients seen at Eastmont Wellness Center, Oakland, CA. Patients underwent photoscreening with a nonmydriatic color fundus camera (Canon Cr-DGi, Tokyo, Japan) and SD-OCT (iVue, Optovue Inc, Fremont, CA). The color fundus images for those patients were transformed into red and green channels to evaluate the appearance of macular cysts in red channel images and green channel images. The region of each cyst was compared SD-OCT scans (Adobe Photoshop CS5.1, San Jose, CA). Only cysts touching the central 1 mm around the fixation from the SD-OCT scans were sampled. Results: The average size of retinal cysts in red channel images, 124.57 µm (±106.96), was significantly greater than in green channel, 59.44 µm (±76.6), (p<0.006). Entire cysts could not be seen in 5 eyes in the green channel images. Conclusions: Our results indicate that the grading of cysts in the central macular might be improved by incorporating red channel images. There are a number of potential factors that could make cysts less visible in the green channel images, including poorer light penetration through to the deeper retina or macular pigment. Anterior segment issues impact more on green channel images. This population includes mostly minority patients who have dark fundi, and darker images.
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- Arthur, Edmund, et al.
(författare)
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Central Macular Thickness in Diabetic Patients : A Sex-based Analysis
- 2019
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Ingår i: Optometry and Vision Science. - : American Academy of Optometry. - 1040-5488 .- 1538-9235. ; 96:4, s. 266-275
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- SIGNIFICANCE The pathological changes in clinically significant diabetic macular edema lead to greater retinal thickening in men than in women. Therefore, male sex should be considered a potential risk factor for identifying individuals with the most severe pathological changes. Understanding this excessive retinal thickening in men may help preserve vision. PURPOSE The purpose of this study was to investigate the sex differences in retinal thickness in diabetic patients. We tested whether men with clinically significant macular edema had even greater central macular thickness than expected from sex differences without significant pathological changes. This study also aimed to determine which retinal layers contribute to abnormal retinal thickness. METHODS From 2047 underserved adult diabetic patients from Alameda County, CA, 142 patients with clinically significant macular edema were identified by EyePACS-certified graders using color fundus images (Canon CR6-45NM). First, central macular thickness from spectral domain optical coherence tomography (iVue; Optovue Inc.) was compared in 21 men versus 21 women without clinically significant macular edema. Then, a planned comparison contrasted the greater values of central macular thickness in men versus women with clinically significant macular edema as compared with those without. Mean retinal thickness and variability of central macular layers were compared in men versus women. RESULTS Men without clinically significant macular edema had a 12-μm greater central macular thickness than did women (245 ± 21.3 and 233 ± 13.4 μm, respectively; t40 = −2.18, P = .04). Men with clinically significant macular edema had a 67-μm greater central macular thickness than did women (383 ± 48.7 and 316 ± 60.4 μm, P < .001); that is, men had 55 μm or more than five times more (t20 = 2.35, P = .02). In men, the outer-nuclear-layer thickness was more variable, F10,10 = 9.34. CONCLUSIONS Underserved diabetic men had thicker retinas than did women, exacerbated by clinically significant macular edema.
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| 26. |
- Arthur, Edmund, et al.
(författare)
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Individual Retinal Layer Thickness in Diabetic Patients with Clinically Significant Macular Edema : A Gender Based Analysis
- 2016
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose: To compare segmented retinal layer thicknesses between male and female diabetics with clinically significant macular edema (CSME). This study expands our earlier analysis of central macular thickness (CMT) measurements in diabetic males vs. females. Methods: Diabetic retinopathy screening of 2080 diabetics from Alameda County, CA, indicated 142 patients with CSME, as judged by EyePACS certified graders using color fundus images (Canon CR6-45NM). Of the 2080 diabetics, 1784 were imaged with SD-OCT (Optovue iVue). From the 142 patients, we selected 11 males with good fixation, CMT > 300 µm, and no other ocular complications, along with 11 females with the greatest values of CMT while controlling for age, HbA1c and diabetes duration. Manual segmentation of retinal layers using custom software (Mathworks Matlab) of the SD-OCT images of these subjects was done. We analyzed thicknesses for regions 1 deg - 2 deg for nasal and temporal retina in a B-scan centered on the fovea. A 2 X 2 ANOVA probed the differences in thickness for gender, meridian, and their interaction. We also analyzed the central 1 mm of the outer retinal layers, and performed t-tests. Results: Males had significantly thicker nerve fiber layer (NFL) (13.30 ± 2.85 µm) than females (10.13 ± 6.13 µm) and ganglion cell layer-inner plexiform layer (GCL-IPL) (62.54 ± 21.18 µm) than females (48.07 ± 25.91 µm), p < 0.05. There was no effect of meridian and no interaction (p > 0.05). All other layers except the retinal pigment epithelium (RPE) were thicker for males than females even though these were not significant (p > 0.05). There were no significant differences for the layers of the outer retina, which were highly variable and distorted by cysts. Conclusion: Outside the fovea, NFL and GCL-IPL thicknesses were significantly higher in males than females.
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| 27. |
- Baskaran, Karthikeyan, et al.
(författare)
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Benefit of Adaptive Optics Aberration Correction at Preferred Retinal Locus
- 2012
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Ingår i: Optometry and Vision Science. - 1040-5488 .- 1538-9235. ; 89:9, s. 1417-1423
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- PURPOSE.: To investigate the effect of eccentric refractive correction and full aberration correction on both high- and low-contrast grating resolution at the preferred retinal locus (PRL) of a single low-vision subject with a long-standing central scotoma. METHODS.: The subject was a 68-year-old women with bilateral absolute central scotoma due to Stargardt disease. She developed a single PRL located 25 degrees nasally of the damaged macula in her left eye, this being the better of the two eyes. High- (100%) and low-contrast (25 and 10%) grating resolution acuity was evaluated using four different correction conditions. The first two corrections were solely refractive error corrections, namely, habitual spectacle correction and full spherocylindrical correction. The latter two corrections were two versions of adaptive optics corrections of all aberrations, namely, habitual spectacle correction with aberration correction and full spherocylindrical refractive correction with aberration correction. RESULTS.: The mean high-contrast (100%) resolution acuity with her habitual correction was 1.06 logMAR, which improved to 1.00 logMAR with full spherocylindrical correction. Under the same conditions, low-contrast (25%) acuity improved from 1.30 to 1.14 logMAR. With adaptive optics aberration correction, the high-contrast resolution acuities improved to 0.89/0.92 logMAR and the low-contrast acuities improved to 1.04/1.06 logMAR under both correction modalities. The low-contrast (10%) resolution acuity was 1.34 logMAR with adaptive optics aberration correction; however, with purely refractive error corrections, she was unable to identify the orientation of the gratings. CONCLUSIONS.: Correction of all aberrations using adaptive optics improves both high- and low-contrast resolution acuity at the PRL of a single low-vision subject with long-standing absolute central scotoma
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| 28. |
- Baskaran, Karthikeyan, et al.
(författare)
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Stability of fixation in diabetes patients with and without clinically significant macular edema
- 2014
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose - Eye diseases affecting central vision impair fixation and interfere with day-to-day tasks such as reading. Diabetic retinopathy and clinically significant macular edema (CSME) are leading causes of visual impairment in diabetes patients. The aim of this study is to find whether diabetic patients with CSME have poorer fixation stability compared to patients without CSME, by analyzing the fundus images obtained from the Laser Scanning Digital Camera (LSDC).Methods - Two hundred underserved, diabetic patients were screened for diabetic retinopathy at the Eastmont Wellness Center within the EyePACS telemedicine network, using LSDC. One eye of each patient who had diabetic retinopathy was included in this study. Non-mydriatic color fundus photos were classified for presence of CSME by two independent, certified EyePACS graders. The first 50 patients (25 males & 25 females) with CSME were selected and 50 (27 males & 23 females) diabetic patients without CSME were selected as controls. Mean age was 59 (±9) years for patients with CSME and was 55 (±10) years for patients without CSME. The subjects included 53% Hispanics, 26% African Americans and 21% other. A series of 20 images (36 deg field, 1024 X 1024 pixels, and 850 nm) were acquired at 11 fps. Eye positions were obtained by selecting a region of interest in the first image of each series and aligning the remaining images to that region by cross-correlation. The bi-contour ellipse area (BCEA) and the standard deviation of the Euclidean distance (SDED) were used to quantify fixation stability.Results - The fixation stability for patients with CSME was significantly worse than for those without CSME (t test: p < 0.001, 0.007 for BCEA and SDED, respectively). The mean fixation stability obtained by the BCEA metric was 2.74 (±0.40) log(minArc2) and 2.34 (±0.42) log(minArc2) for patients with and without CSME, respectively. For SDED the mean was 48.4 (±28.8) microns and 34.6 (±20.4) microns for patients with and without CSME, respectively. The correlation with age was not significant for either group (R2 = 0.052, 0.011).Conclusions - Diabetic patients with CSME had poorer fixation stability than patients without CSME for both metrics. Fixation stability is a potential tool for assessing macular function and could be used for tracking the treatment and progression of macular edema.The LSDC images provide one method to quantify fixation stability rapidly.
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| 29. |
- Benz, Alexander P., et al.
(författare)
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Stroke risk prediction in patients with atrial fibrillation with and without rheumatic heart disease
- 2021
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Ingår i: Cardiovascular Research. - : Oxford University Press. - 0008-6363 .- 1755-3245. ; 118:1, s. 295-304
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and rheumatic heart disease (RHD), especially mitral stenosis, are assumed to be at high risk of stroke, irrespective of other factors. We aimed to re-evaluate stroke risk factors in a contemporary cohort of AF patients. Methods and results We analysed data of 15 400 AF patients presenting to an emergency department and who were enrolled in the global RE-LY AF registry, representing 47 countries from all inhabited continents. Follow-up occurred at 1 year after enrolment. A total of 1788 (11.6%) patients had RHD. These patients were younger (51.4 +/- 15.7 vs. 67.8 +/- 13.6 years), more likely to be female (66.2% vs. 44.7%) and had a lower mean CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc score (2.1 +/- 1.7 vs. 3.7 +/- 2.2) as compared to patients without RHD (all P<0.001). Significant mitral stenosis (average mean transmitral gradient 11.5 +/- 6.5 mmHg) was the predominant valve lesion in those with RHD (59.6%). Patients with RHD had a higher baseline rate of anticoagulation use (60.4% vs. 45.2%, P<0.001). Unadjusted stroke rates at 1 year were 2.8% and 4.1% for patients with and without RHD, respectively. The performance of the CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc score was modest in both groups [stroke at 1 year, c-statistics 0.69, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.60-0.78 and 0.63, 95% CI 0.61-0.66, respectively]. In the overall cohort, advanced age, female sex, prior stroke, tobacco use, and non-use of anticoagulation were predictors for stroke (all P<0.05). Mitral stenosis was not associated with stroke risk (adjusted odds ratio 1.07, 95% CI 0.67-1.72, P=0.764). Conclusion The performance of the CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc score was modest in AF patients both with and without RHD. In this cohort, moderate-to-severe mitral stenosis was not an independent risk factor for stroke.
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| 30. |
- Boschloo, G., et al.
(författare)
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A comparative study of a polyene-diphenylaniline dye and Ru(dcbpy)(2)(NCS)(2) in electrolyte-based and solid-state dye-sensitized solar cells
- 2008
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Ingår i: Thin Solid Films. - : Elsevier BV. - 0040-6090 .- 1879-2731. ; 516:20, s. 7214-7217
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A small organic sensitizer, the polyene-diphenylaniline dye D5, was compared with the standard sensitizer N719 (Ru(dcbPY)(2)(NCS)(2)) in a dyesensitized solar cell investigation. In solar cells with relatively thin layers of mesoporous TiO2 (< 3 mu m) D5 outperformed N719 because of its high extinction coefficient. D5 showed also better performance than N719 in the case of sensitization of mesoporous ZnO. In solid-state solar cells, where the iodide/triiodide electrolyte was replaced by an amorphous hole conductor (spiro-OMeTAD), D5 gave promising preliminary results. The hole conductivity, observed in monolayers of D5 adsorbed at TiO2, may possibly lead to improved performance in such cells.
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| 31. |
- Green, Jason J. A., et al.
(författare)
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Retina Artery to Vein Intensity Ratio as a Function of Wavelength and Dark-Field Offset With Low Cost Ophthalmoscope
- 2014
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- PurposeTo quantify light return from retinal vessels for oxygenation status. To use a low-cost Digital Light Ophthalmoscope (DLO) based on a novel structured light pattern Digital Light Projector for quantitative retinal imaging. MethodsFive normal subjects of ages 27-63 and various eye colors were imaged without mydriasis. The DLO produced a progressively scanning 6 pixel wide stripe, 96 stripe illumination pattern (85 μm stripe width at retina) with LEDs at 635 +/- 25nm (Red) and 535 +/- 70nm (Green) with a constant fixation target location across tests. The illumination was synchronized to a 13.2 Hz rolling shutter CMOS sensor (11 μm resolution at retina). To collect the light return from the retina at varying light multiply scattered levels, aperture offset was varied in position with respect to the illumination centerline: dark-field mode was obtained with large offsets and confocal mode had small offsets, where offset was varied from -517 μm (row start 30) to 1353 μm (row start 200). Multiple images of 12 bit dynamic range were captured in sequence, aligned with translational cross correlation, then time averaged to reduce noise. The artery and vein gray scale intensity level was measured at vessel centers for: 1) both vessels over background retina and 2) artery over the optic disc and vein over background. Mean-to-mean intensity ratios were then compared. ResultsWith an aperture width of 704 μm, intensity varied by 2.60 bits (a factor of 4.5) for each subject per condition: red, green, artery, and vein, 3.39 bits if same subject and condition (2.3% Red A/V ratio CoV σ/μ), and by 5.07 bits over all tests. Yet, the ratio (Red/Green Artery)/(Red/Green Vein) was close to unity across offsets and linear fits had an R^2 regression of, for case 1: 0.72, 0.06, 0.25, 0.18, and 0.49, and case 2: 0.0005, 0.89, 0.75, 0.50, and 0.18. The Artery/Vein ratio trend slopes, intercept points, and inversions varied between subjects, i.e. contrast reversals were observed. ConclusionsThe DLO can be utilized electronically to effectively perform quantitative fundus imaging at both Red and Green wavelengths, which is a step towards performing oximetry. 77 is zero offset
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| 32. |
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| 33. |
- Karthikeyan, K., et al.
(författare)
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Optimal fibre architecture of soft-matrix ballistic laminates
- 2016
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Ingår i: International Journal of Impact Engineering. - : Elsevier. - 0734-743X .- 1879-3509. ; 88, s. 227-237
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Soft-matrix ballistic laminates (such as those composed of fibres of Ultra High Molecular-Weight Polyethylene, e.g. Dyneema® HB26 and Spectra Shield) find extensive use as catching type armour systems. The relationship between the lay-up of these laminates with respect to the observed failure mechanisms has not been empirically investigated in the open literature, and is the subject of this work. Lay-ups are characterised by two parameters: (i) sequencing (or interply lay-up angle) θ¯ and (ii) in-plane anisotropy β, and can be mapped on to θ¯-β space. Four geometries that lie at the extrema of this parameter space are designed, built and tested. Testing is through ball bearing impact on circular clamped plates. The anisotropy (β) is coupled to the macroscopic response of the plates, while sequencing (θ¯) is coupled to the microscopic response. Penetration velocity is strongly affected by pull-out at the boundary, and in the present study this is shown to account for two-thirds of the ballistic resistance. The results have implications for validation testing on scaled samples, predictive modelling and simulation, and armour design.
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| 34. |
- Lundström, Linda, et al.
(författare)
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Symmetries in peripheral ocular aberrations
- 2011
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Ingår i: Journal of Modern Optics. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0950-0340 .- 1362-3044. ; 58:19-20, s. 1690-1695
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A mirror symmetry in the aberrations between the left and right eyes has previously been found foveally, but while a similar symmetry for the peripheral visual field is likely, it has not been investigated. Nevertheless, the peripheral optical quality is often evaluated in only one eye, because it is more time efficient than analyzing the whole visual field of both eyes. This study investigates the correctness of such an approach by measuring the peripheral wavefront aberrations in both eyes of 22 subjects out to +/- 40 degrees horizontally. The largest aberrations (defocus, astigmatism, and coma) were found to be significantly correlated between the left and right eyes when comparing the same temporal or nasal angle. The slope of the regression line was close to +/- 1 (within 0.05) for these aberrations, with a negative slope for the horizontally odd aberrations, i.e. the left and right eyes are mirror symmetric. These findings justify that the average result, sampled in one of the two eyes of many subjects, can be generalized to the other eye as well.
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| 35. |
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