| 1. |
- Aradhya, Siddartha, et al.
(författare)
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Immigrant ancestry and birthweight across two generations born in Sweden : an intergenerational cohort study
- 2022
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Ingår i: BMJ Global Health. - : BMJ. - 2059-7908. ; 7:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction Differences in birthweight are often seen between migrants and natives. However, whether migrant-native birthweight inequalities widen, narrow or remain persistent across generations when comparing the descendants of immigrants and natives remains understudied. We examined inequalities in birthweight of mothers (G2) and daughters (G3) of foreign-born grandmothers (G1) compared with those of Swedish-born grandmothers.Methods We used population registers with multigenerational linkages to identify 314 415 daughters born in Sweden during the period 1989–2012 (G3), linked to 246 642 mothers (G2) born in Sweden during 1973–1996, and to their grandmothers (G1) who were Swedish or foreign-born. We classified migrants into non-western, Eastern European, the rest of Nordic and Western. We used multivariable methods to examine mean birthweight and low birthweight (<2500 g; LBW).Results Birthweight between individuals with Swedish background (G1) and non-western groups increased from -80 g to -147 g between G2 (mothers) and G3 (daughters), respectively. Furthermore, the odds of LBW increased among the G3 non-western immigrants compared with those with Swedish grandmothers (OR: 1.38, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.69). Birthweight increased in both descendants of Swedes and non-western immigrants, but less so in the latter (83 g vs 16 g).Conclusion We observed an increase in birthweight inequalities across generations between descendants of non-western immigrants and descendants of Swedes. This finding is puzzling considering Sweden has been lauded for its humanitarian approach to migration, for being one of the most egalitarian countries in the world and providing universal access to healthcare and education.
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| 2. |
- Dunlavy, Andrea, 1979-, et al.
(författare)
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Investigating the salmon bias effect among international immigrants in Sweden : a register-based open cohort study
- 2022
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Ingår i: European Journal of Public Health. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1101-1262 .- 1464-360X. ; 32:2, s. 226-232
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Studies of migration and health have hypothesized that immigrants may emigrate when they develop poor health (salmon bias effect), which may partially explain the mortality advantage observed among immigrants in high-income countries. We evaluated the salmon bias effect by comparing the health of immigrants in Sweden who emigrated with those who remained, while also exploring potential variation by macro-economic conditions, duration of residence and region of origin. Methods: A longitudinal, open cohort study design was used to assess risk of emigration between 1992 and 2016 among all adult (18+ years) foreign-born persons who immigrated to Sweden between 1965 and 2012 (n = 1 765 459). The Charlson Comorbidity Index was used to measure health status, using information on hospitalizations from the Swedish National Patient Register. Poisson regression models were used to estimate incidence rate ratios (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for emigrating from Sweden. Results: Immigrants with low (RR = 0.83; 95% CI: 0.76-0.90) moderate (RR = 0.70; 95% CI: 0.62-0.80) and high (RR = 0.62; 95% CI: 0.48-0.82) levels of comorbidities had decreased risk of emigration relative to those with no comorbidities. There was no evidence of variation by health status in emigration during periods of economic recession or by duration of residence. Individuals with low to moderate levels of comorbidities from some regions of origin had an increased risk of emigration relative to those with no comorbidities. Conclusions: The study results do not support the existence of a salmon bias effect as a universal phenomenon among international immigrants in Sweden.
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| 3. |
- Eslava-Schmalbach, Javier, et al.
(författare)
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Considering health equity when moving from evidence-based guideline recommendations to implementation : a case study from an upper-middle income country on the GRADE approach
- 2017
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Ingår i: Health Policy and Planning. - : Oxford University Press. - 0268-1080 .- 1460-2237. ; 32:10, s. 1484-1490
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The availability of evidence-based guidelines does not ensure their implementation and use in clinical practice or policy making. Inequities in health have been defined as those inequalities within or between populations that are avoidable, unnecessary and also unjust and unfair. Evidence-based clinical practice and public health guidelines ('guidelines') can be used to target health inequities experienced by disadvantaged populations, although guidelines may unintentionally increase health inequities. For this reason, there is a need for evidence-based clinical practice and public health guidelines to intentionally target health inequities experienced by disadvantaged populations. Current guideline development processes do not include steps for planned implementation of equity-focused guidelines. This article describes nine steps that provide guidance for consideration of equity during guideline implementation. A critical appraisal of the literature followed by a process to build expert consensus was undertaken to define how to include consideration of equity issues during the specific GRADE guideline development process. Using a case study from Colombia we describe nine steps that were used to implement equity-focused GRADE recommendations: (1) identification of disadvantaged groups, (2) quantification of current health inequities, (3) development of equity-sensitive recommendations, (4) identification of key actors for implementation of equity-focused recommendations, (5) identification of barriers and facilitators to the implementation of equity-focused recommendations, (6) development of an equity strategy to be included in the implementation plan, (7) assessment of resources and incentives, (8) development of a communication strategy to support an equity focus and (9) development of monitoring and evaluation strategies. This case study can be used as model for implementing clinical practice guidelines, taking into account equity issues during guideline development and implementation.
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Griswold, Max G., et al.
(författare)
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Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 392:10152, s. 1015-1035
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.Methods: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.Findings: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week.Interpretation: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.
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| 6. |
- Honkaniemi, Helena, 1993-
(författare)
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Mental health after migration to Sweden : The role of the social determinants of health
- 2022
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Migrants often experience worse mental health after migration than natives in Sweden. Using survey, register and peer-reviewed published data, the five studies of this thesis explored the mental health variation of different migrant groups settled in Sweden, including by the timing of migration, level of integration and region of origin. In parallel, the studies considered the role of downstream (individual) and upstream (structural) social determinants of health as drivers of mental health inequalities.Study I assessed migrants’ risk of self-reported psychological distress by their age at migration and duration of residence in Sweden, relative to Swedish-born natives. Migrants generally had higher risks of psychological distress than natives, increasing with older age at migration and longer duration of residence, especially among migrants from regions not affiliated with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Health differences were largely explained by inequalities in socioeconomic position, social connection and discrimination. Study II explored how prescription rates of psychotropic medications varied by native-migrant marital composition as a proxy for integration in Sweden. Intramarried migrants had the highest prescription hazards, whereas migrants intermarried with natives had lower hazards, albeit higher than for intramarried natives. Migrant women, but not men, had attenuated hazards after adjusting for socioeconomic and other marriage-related social factors.Study III reviewed the international literature for previous evidence of the effects of non-health-related policies for migrant health. Restrictive entry and integration policies, including social welfare policies, were found to be associated with poorer self-rated general and mental health. Studies examining generous integration-related policies revealed largely positive mental health effects for migrants.Study IV investigated the mental health effects of the 1995 Father’s quota, a Swedish parental leave reform that incentivized fathers’ leave use. Whereas both native and migrant fathers increased their parental leave use following the reform, only migrant fathers, especially those from non-OECD regions and with migrant partners, experienced concurrent decreases in psychiatric hospitalizations.Study V examined the mental health effects of another Swedish parental leave policy, the 2012 Double Days reform, which introduced a month of simultaneous parental leave for mothers and fathers. Although both native and migrant fathers had increased levels of parental leave use, only native fathers and their partners exhibited decreased psychotropic medication prescription rates and greater outpatient care uptake related to mental health. The findings of this thesis highlight the dynamic nature of mental health after migration, and the relevance of the social determinants of health within the receiving country context. The studies provide empirical support for how migrants’ mental health can vary by the timing of migration and level of integration, through downstream determinants, including socioeconomic position and social connection, and upstream determinants, such as welfare programs and migration policies. Taken together, the thesis emphasizes the need to consider migrant mental health inequalities as socially-patterned phenomena amenable to change after migration.
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| 7. |
- Honkaniemi, Helena, 1993-, et al.
(författare)
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Psychiatric consequences of a father’s leave policy by nativity : a quasi-experimental study in Sweden
- 2022
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Ingår i: Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health. - : BMJ. - 0143-005X .- 1470-2738. ; 76:4, s. 367-373
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Parental leave use has been found to promote maternal and child health, with limited evidence of mental health impacts on fathers. How these effects vary for minority populations with poorer mental health and lower leave uptake, such as migrants, remains under-investigated. This study assessed the effects of a Swedish policy to encourage fathers’ leave, the 1995 Father’s quota, on Swedish-born and migrant fathers’ psychiatric hospitalisations.Methods We conducted an interrupted time series analysis using Swedish total population register data for first-time fathers of children born before (1992–1994) and after (1995–1997) the reform (n=198 589). Swedish-born and migrant fathers’ 3-year psychiatric hospitalisation rates were modelled using segmented negative binomial regression, adjusting for seasonality and autocorrelation, with stratified analyses by region of origin, duration of residence, and partners’ nativity.Results From immediately pre-reform to post-reform, the proportion of fathers using parental leave increased from 63.6% to 86.4% of native-born and 37.1% to 51.2% of migrants. Swedish-born fathers exhibited no changes in psychiatric hospitalisation rates post-reform, whereas migrants showed 36% decreased rates (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.64, 95% CI 0.47 to 0.86). Migrants from regions not predominantly consisting of Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development countries (IRR 0.50, 95% CI 0.19 to 1.33), and those with migrant partners (IRR 0.23, 95% CI 0.14 to 0.38), experienced the greatest decreases in psychiatric hospitalisation rates.Conclusion The findings of this study suggest that policies oriented towards promoting father’s use of parental leave may help to reduce native–migrant health inequalities, with broader benefits for family well-being and child development.Data availability statement
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| 8. |
- Honkaniemi, Helena, et al.
(författare)
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Psychological distress by age at migration and duration of residence in Sweden
- 2020
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Ingår i: Social Science and Medicine. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-9536 .- 1873-5347. ; 250
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Migrants suffer from worse psychological health than natives in many countries, yet the extent to which this varies by age at migration and duration of residence in the receiving context remains unexplored in Sweden. Drawing on a life course approach, we investigate differences in psychological distress by age at migration and duration of residence in working-age migrants to Sweden, and examine the role of various social determinants of health in explaining these differences relative to Swedish-born.Using pooled cross-sectional data from the 2011/2015 Health on Equal Terms survey in Västra Götaland Region, Sweden (n = 58,428), we applied logistic regression analysis to calculate predicted probabilities and average marginal effects (AME) of migrant status, by age at migration and duration of residence, on psychological distress. Analyses were stratified by sex and region of origin and controlled for indicators of socioeconomic status (SES), social cohesion, and discrimination to assess their potential contribution to differences in migrants' and natives' psychological distress.All migrants except men from OECD-predominant regions had a greater probability of psychological distress than Swedish-born (ranging from AME 0.031 [95% Confidence Interval or CI 0.000–0.062] for OECD women to AME 0.115 [95% CI 0.074–0.156] for non-OECD men). Marginal effects of migration status on psychological distress probabilities generally increased with age at migration and duration of residence. Differences between migrants and natives were largely attenuated after controlling for social determinants, the greatest contribution coming from inequalities in social cohesion, followed by inequalities in discrimination and SES.Our results suggest a relative health advantage of early-life compared to later-life migration, albeit with worse outcomes with longer residence in Sweden. The predominance of integration opportunities in childhood strengthens calls for supportive policies to assist older migrants' integration directly upon arrival, which may ultimately improve their psychological wellbeing.
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Hultcrantz, Monica, et al.
(författare)
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The GRADE Working Group clarifies the construct of certainty of evidence
- 2017
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Ingår i: Journal of Clinical Epidemiology. - : Pergamon Press. - 0895-4356 .- 1878-5921. ; 87, s. 4-13
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: To clarify the grading of recommendations assessment, development and evaluation (GRADE) definition of certainty of evidence and suggest possible approaches to rating certainty of the evidence for systematic reviews, health technology assessments, and guidelines. Study Design and Setting: This work was carried out by a project group within the GRADE Working Group, through brainstorming and iterative refinement of ideas, using input from workshops, presentations, and discussions at GRADE Working Group meetings to produce this document, which constitutes official GRADE guidance. Results: Certainty of evidence is best considered as the certainty that a true effect lies on one side of a specified threshold or within a chosen range. We define possible approaches for choosing threshold or range. For guidelines, what we call a fully contextualized approach requires simultaneously considering all critical outcomes and their relative value. Less-contextualized approaches, more appropriate for systematic reviews and health technology assessments, include using specified ranges of magnitude of effect, for example, ranges of what we might consider no effect, trivial, small, moderate, or large effects. Conclusion: It is desirable for systematic review authors, guideline panelists, and health technology assessors to specify the threshold or ranges they are using when rating the certainty in evidence. (C) 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc.
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| 11. |
- Juárez, Sol Pía, et al.
(författare)
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Effects of non-health-targeted policies on migrant health : a systematic review and meta-analysis
- 2019
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Ingår i: The Lancet Global Health. - 2214-109X. ; 7:4, s. e420-e435
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- BackgroundGovernment policies can strongly influence migrants' health. Using a Health in All Policies approach, we systematically reviewed evidence on the impact of public policies outside of the health-care system on migrant health.MethodsWe searched the PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science databases from Jan 1, 2000, to Sept 1, 2017, for quantitative studies comparing the health effects of non-health-targeted public policies on migrants with those on a relevant comparison population. We searched for articles written in English, Swedish, Danish, Norwegian, Finnish, French, Spanish, or Portuguese. Qualitative studies and grey literature were excluded. We evaluated policy effects by migration stage (entry, integration, and exit) and by health outcome using narrative synthesis (all included studies) and random-effects meta-analysis (all studies whose results were amenable to statistical pooling). We summarised meta-analysis outcomes as standardised mean difference (SMD, 95% CI) or odds ratio (OR, 95% CI). To assess certainty, we created tables containing a summary of the findings according to the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation. Our study was registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42017076104.FindingsWe identified 43 243 potentially eligible records. 46 articles were narratively synthesised and 19 contributed to the meta-analysis. All studies were published in high-income countries and examined policies of entry (nine articles) and integration (37 articles). Restrictive entry policies (eg, temporary visa status, detention) were associated with poor mental health (SMD 0·44, 95% CI 0·13–0·75; I2=92·1%). In the integration phase, restrictive policies in general, and specifically regarding welfare eligibility and documentation requirements, were found to increase odds of poor self-rated health (OR 1·67, 95% CI 1·35–1·98; I2=82·0%) and mortality (1·38, 1·10–1·65; I2=98·9%). Restricted eligibility for welfare support decreased the odds of general health-care service use (0·92, 0·85–0·98; I2=0·0%), but did not reduce public health insurance coverage (0·89, 0·71–1·07; I2=99·4%), nor markedly affect proportions of people without health insurance (1·06, 0·90–1·21; I2=54·9%).InterpretationRestrictive entry and integration policies are linked to poor migrant health outcomes in high-income countries. Efforts to improve the health of migrants would benefit from adopting a Health in All Policies perspective.
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| 12. |
- Juárez, Sol Pia, et al.
(författare)
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Explaining COVID-19 mortality among immigrants in Sweden from a social determinants of health perspective (COVIS) : protocol for a national register-based observational study
- 2023
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Ingår i: BMJ Open. - 2044-6055. ; 13:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction Adopting a social determinants of health perspective, this project aims to study how disproportionate COVID-19 mortality among immigrants in Sweden is associated with social factors operating through differential exposure to the virus (eg, by being more likely to work in high-exposure occupations) and differential effects of infection arising from socially patterned, pre-existing health conditions, differential healthcare seeking and inequitable healthcare provision. Methods and analysis This observational study will use health (eg, hospitalisations, deaths) and sociodemographic information (eg, occupation, income, social benefits) from Swedish national registers linked using unique identity numbers. The study population includes all adults registered in Sweden in the year before the start of the pandemic (2019), as well as individuals who immigrated to Sweden or turned 18 years of age after the start of the pandemic (2020). Our analyses will primarily cover the period from 31 January 2020 to 31 December 2022, with updates depending on the progression of the pandemic. We will evaluate COVID-19 mortality differences between foreign-born and Swedish-born individuals by examining each mechanism (differential exposure and effects) separately, while considering potential effect modification by country of birth and socioeconomic factors. Planned statistical modelling techniques include mediation analyses, multilevel models, Poisson regression and event history analyses. Ethics and dissemination This project has been granted all necessary ethical permissions from the Swedish Ethical Review Authority (Dnr 2022-0048- 01) for accessing and analysing deidentified data. The final outputs will primarily be disseminated as scientific articles published in open-access peer-reviewed international journals, as well as press releases and policy briefs.
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| 13. |
- Juárez, Sol Pia, et al.
(författare)
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Unintended health consequences of Swedish parental leave policy (ParLeHealth) : Protocol for a quasi-experimental study
- 2021
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Ingår i: BMJ Open. - : BMJ. - 2044-6055. ; 11:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction Sweden has long been praised for a generous parental leave policy oriented towards facilitating a gender-equitable approach to work and parenting. Yet certain aspects of Swedish parental leave could also be responsible for the maintenance of (or even the increase in) health inequalities. Using a € Health in All Policies' lens, this research project aims to assess the unintended health consequences of various components of Sweden's parental leave policy, including eligibility for and uptake of earnings based benefits. Methods and analysis We will use individual-level data from multiple Swedish registers. Sociodemographic information, including parental leave use, will be retrieved from the total population register, Longitudinal Integration Database for Health Insurance and Labour Market Studies and Social Insurance Agency registers. Health information for parents and children will be retrieved from the patient, prescribed drug, cause of death, medical birth and children's health registers. We will evaluate parents' mental, mothers' reproductive and children's general health outcomes in relation to several policy reforms aiming to protect parental leave benefits in short birth spacing (the speed premium) and to promote father's uptake (the father's quota) and sharing of parental leave days (the double days reform). We will also examine effects of increases in basic parental leave benefit levels. Using quasi-experimental designs, we will compare health outcomes across these reforms and eligibility thresholds with interrupted time series, difference-in-difference and regression discontinuity approaches to reduce the risk of health selection and assess causality in the link between parental leave use and health. Ethics and dissemination This project has been granted all necessary ethical permissions from the Stockholm Regional Ethical Review Board (Dnr 2019-04913) for accessing and analysing deidentified data. The final outputs will primarily be disseminated as scientific articles published in open-access, high-impact peer-reviewed international journals, as well as press releases and policy briefs.
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| 14. |
- Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal, et al.
(författare)
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Health Equity and Its Economic Determinants (HEED) : protocol for a pan-European microsimulation model for health impacts of income and social security policies
- 2022
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Ingår i: BMJ Open. - : BMJ. - 2044-6055. ; 12:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction Government policies on taxation and social security are important determinants of population health outcomes and health inequalities. However, there is a shortage of evidence to inform policymakers of the health consequences of such policies. The Health Equity and Its Economic Determinants project aims to assess the potential impacts of different taxation and social security policies across Europe on population health and health inequalities using a computer-based simulation that provides projections over multiple health domains.Methods and analysis In the first phase, key input parameters for the model will be estimated using estimation techniques that control for the effects of prior exposure on time-varying confounders and mediators (g-methods). The second phase will involve developing and validating the microsimulation model for the UK. Policy proposals, developed with policymakers, will be simulated in the third phase to investigate the impacts of income tax and social security changes on population health and health inequalities. In the final phase, the microsimulation model will be extended across other European countries.Ethics and dissemination This project will use deidentified secondary data for which ethical approval and consents were received by the original data collectors. No further ethical approval will be required for our main analytical datasets. Dissemination plans include academic publications, conference presentations, accessible policy briefings, mass media engagement and a project website. Both the syntax and the underlying synthetic data for the HEED microsimulation model will be made freely available through GitHub and the project website.
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| 15. |
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| 16. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 17. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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