| 1. |
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| 2. |
- Khalil, Ibrahim, et al.
(författare)
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Burden of Diarrhea in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990-2013 : Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2016
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Ingår i: American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. - : American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. - 1476-1645 .- 0002-9637. ; 95:6, s. 1319-1329
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Diarrheal diseases (DD) are leading causes of disease burden, death, and disability, especially in children in low-income settings. DD can also impact a child's potential livelihood through stunted physical growth, cognitive impairment, and other sequelae. As part of the Global Burden of Disease Study, we estimated DD burden, and the burden attributable to specific risk factors and particular etiologies, in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) between 1990 and 2013. For both sexes and all ages, we calculated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which are the sum of years of life lost and years lived with disability. We estimate that over 125,000 deaths (3.6% of total deaths) were due to DD in the EMR in 2013, with a greater burden of DD in low- and middle-income countries. Diarrhea deaths per 100,000 children under 5 years of age ranged from one (95% uncertainty interval [UI] = 0-1) in Bahrain and Oman to 471 (95% UI = 245-763) in Somalia. The pattern for diarrhea DALYs among those under 5 years of age closely followed that for diarrheal deaths. DALYs per 100,000 ranged from 739 (95% UI = 520-989) in Syria to 40,869 (95% UI = 21,540-65,823) in Somalia. Our results highlighted a highly inequitable burden of DD in EMR, mainly driven by the lack of access to proper resources such as water and sanitation. Our findings will guide preventive and treatment interventions which are based on evidence and which follow the ultimate goal of reducing the DD burden.
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| 3. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 4. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 5. |
- Hussain, Nadia, et al.
(författare)
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Cichorium intybus L. significantly alleviates cigarette smoke-induced acute lung injury by lowering NF-κB pathway activation and inflammatory mediators
- 2023
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Ingår i: Heliyon. - : Elsevier. - 2405-8440. ; 9:11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Cigarette smoke (CS) is one of the primary causes of acute lung injury (ALI) via provoking pulmonary inflammation and oxidative stress. Despite substantial studies, no effective treatment for ALI is presently available.Purpose: New prospective treatment options for ALI are required. Thus, this project was designed to investigate the in vivo and in vitro protective effects of 70 % methanolic-aqueous crude extract of whole plant of Cichorium intybus (Ci.Mce) against CS-induced ALI.Study design: /methods: Initially, male Swiss albino mice were subjected to whole-body CS exposure for 10 continuous days to prepare CS-induced ALI models. Normal saline (10 mL/kg), Ci.Mce (100, 200, 300 mg/kg), and Dexamethasone (1 mg/kg) were orally administered to respective animal groups 1 h prior to CS-exposure. 24 hrs after the last CS-exposure, BALF and lungs were harvested to study the key characteristics of ALI. Next, HPLC analysis was done to explore the phytoconstituents.Results: Ci.Mce exhibited significant reductions in lung macrophage and neutrophil infiltration, lung weight coefficient, and albumin exudation. Additionally, it effectively ameliorated lung histopathological alterations and hypoxemia. Notably, Ci.Mce exerted inhibitory effects on the excessive generation of IL-6, IL-1β, and KC in both CS-induced ALI murine models and CSE-stimulated RAW 264.7 macrophages. Noteworthy benefits included the attenuation of oxidative stress induced by CS, evidenced by decreased levels of MDA, TOS, and MPO, alongside enhanced TAC production. Furthermore, Ci.Mce demonstrated a marked reduction in CS-induced NF-κB expression, both in vivo and in vitro.Conclusion: Consequently, Cichorium intybus could be a therapeutic option for CS-induced ALI due to its ability to suppress inflammatory reactions, mitigate oxidative stress, and quell NF-κB p65 activation.
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| 6. |
- Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
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| 7. |
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| 8. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 9. |
- Schutte, Aletta E., et al.
(författare)
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Addressing global disparities in blood pressure control : perspectives of the International Society of Hypertension
- 2023
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Ingår i: Cardiovascular Research. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0008-6363 .- 1755-3245. ; 119:2, s. 381-409
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Raised blood pressure (BP) is the leading cause of preventable death in the world. Yet, its global prevalence is increasing, and it remains poorly detected, treated, and controlled in both high- and low-resource settings. From the perspective of members of the International Society of Hypertension based in all regions, we reflect on the past, present, and future of hypertension care, highlighting key challenges and opportunities, which are often region-specific. We report that most countries failed to show sufficient improvements in BP control rates over the past three decades, with greater improvements mainly seen in some high-income countries, also reflected in substantial reductions in the burden of cardiovascular disease and deaths. Globally, there are significant inequities and disparities based on resources, sociodemographic environment, and race with subsequent disproportionate hypertension-related outcomes. Additional unique challenges in specific regions include conflict, wars, migration, unemployment, rapid urbanization, extremely limited funding, pollution, COVID-19-related restrictions and inequalities, obesity, and excessive salt and alcohol intake. Immediate action is needed to address suboptimal hypertension care and related disparities on a global scale. We propose a Global Hypertension Care Taskforce including multiple stakeholders and societies to identify and implement actions in reducing inequities, addressing social, commercial, and environmental determinants, and strengthening health systems implement a well-designed customized quality-of-care improvement framework.
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| 10. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
- 2016
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Ingår i: The lancet. HIV. - : Elsevier. - 2352-3018. ; 3:8, s. e361-e387
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.METHODS: For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.FINDINGS: Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.INTERPRETATION: Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.
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| 11. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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| 12. |
- Abolfathi, Bela, et al.
(författare)
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The Fourteenth Data Release of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey : First Spectroscopic Data from the Extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey and from the Second Phase of the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment
- 2018
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series. - : IOP Publishing Ltd. - 0067-0049 .- 1538-4365. ; 235:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The fourth generation of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS-IV) has been in operation since 2014 July. This paper describes the second data release from this phase, and the 14th from SDSS overall (making this Data Release Fourteen or DR14). This release makes the data taken by SDSS-IV in its first two years of operation (2014-2016 July) public. Like all previous SDSS releases, DR14 is cumulative, including the most recent reductions and calibrations of all data taken by SDSS since the first phase began operations in 2000. New in DR14 is the first public release of data from the extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey; the first data from the second phase of the Apache Point Observatory (APO) Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE-2), including stellar parameter estimates from an innovative data-driven machine-learning algorithm known as "The Cannon"; and almost twice as many data cubes from the Mapping Nearby Galaxies at APO (MaNGA) survey as were in the previous release (N = 2812 in total). This paper describes the location and format of the publicly available data from the SDSS-IV surveys. We provide references to the important technical papers describing how these data have been taken (both targeting and observation details) and processed for scientific use. The SDSS web site (www.sdss.org) has been updated for this release and provides links to data downloads, as well as tutorials and examples of data use. SDSS-IV is planning to continue to collect astronomical data until 2020 and will be followed by SDSS-V.
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| 13. |
- Akhtar, Nadia, et al.
(författare)
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Uncovering Barriers for Industrial Symbiosis : Assessing Prospects for Eco-Industrialization through Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Developing Regions
- 2022
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Ingår i: Sustainability. - : MDPI AG. - 2071-1050. ; 14:11, s. 6898-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Industrialization is indispensable for socio-economic development but poses far-reaching implications for resources and the environment. Consequently, industrial symbiosis-based collaborations are gaining recognition as a viable strategy to manage resource consumption for mitigating environmental distress. However, these types of synergistic collaborations are more prevalent in developed regions and are linked to larger-sized industries. Admittedly, such collaborative partnerships are less focused in developing regions and small- to medium-size enterprises (SMEs). This calls for discovering the potentials for synergistic partnerships among the small and medium scaled industrial entities in developing economies. Therefore, the study was designed to identify, assess and explore the prospects of symbiotic collaborations among SMEs in Pakistan. Moreover, the inputs are equally relevant for developing and expanding such productive associations in developing regions. Data regarding inputs and outputs was collected from sixty-one (61) SMEs through field survey during the year 2019. It was processed and analyzed to uncover existing and potential synergies among SMEs. The significant findings transpired that the majority of collaborative linkages are bilateral and are driven to maximize economic gains. However, informal networks of recyclers and absence of a stringent regulatory regime are the ground realities in developing/transforming economies. These factors symptomatically interfere with the process of formal/informal exchanges between and among firms. Furthermore, it was observed that the lack of awareness and impulsiveness of SMEs, as well as the inconsistent supply of by-products, act as barriers for such partnerships in developing countries. It calls for proactive engagements and facilitations from the state institutions through policy instruments. The study addresses a broad audience including industrialists, investors, policy makers and researchers engaged in IS studies. Moreover, the inputs will provide impetus for stimulating eco-industrial progress in developing regions such as Pakistan.
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| 14. |
- Beaney, Thomas, et al.
(författare)
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May measurement month 2019 : The global blood pressure screening campaign of the international society of hypertension
- 2020
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Ingår i: Hypertension. - 0194-911X. ; 76:2, s. 333-341
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Elevated blood pressure remains the single biggest risk factor contributing to the global burden of disease and mortality. May Measurement Month is an annual global screening campaign aiming to improve awareness of blood pressure at the individual and population level. Adults (≥18 years) recruited through opportunistic sampling were screened at sites in 92 countries during May 2019. Ideally, 3 blood pressure readings were measured for each participant, and data on lifestyle factors and comorbidities were collected. Hypertension was defined as a systolic blood pressure ≥140 mm Hg, or a diastolic blood pressure ≥90 mm Hg (mean of the second and third readings) or taking antihypertensive medication. When necessary, multiple imputation was used to estimate participants' mean blood pressure. Mixed-effects models were used to evaluate associations between blood pressure and participant characteristics. Of 1 508 130 screenees 482 273 (32.0%) had never had a blood pressure measurement before and 513 337 (34.0%) had hypertension, of whom 58.7% were aware, and 54.7% were on antihypertensive medication. Of those on medication, 57.8% were controlled to <140/90 mm Hg, and 28.9% to <130/80 mm Hg. Of all those with hypertension, 31.7% were controlled to <140/90 mm Hg, and 350 825 (23.3%) participants had untreated or inadequately treated hypertension. Of those taking antihypertensive medication, half were taking only a single drug, and 25% reported using aspirin inappropriately. This survey is the largest ever synchronized and standardized contemporary compilation of global blood pressure data. This campaign is needed as a temporary substitute for systematic blood pressure screening in many countries worldwide.
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| 15. |
- Charchar, Fadi J., et al.
(författare)
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Lifestyle management of hypertension : International Society of Hypertension position paper endorsed by the World Hypertension League and European Society of Hypertension
- 2024
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Ingår i: Journal of Hypertension. - : Wolters Kluwer. - 0263-6352 .- 1473-5598. ; 42:1, s. 23-49
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Hypertension, defined as persistently elevated systolic blood pressure (SBP) >140 mmHg and/or diastolic blood pressure (DBP) at least 90 mmHg (International Society of Hypertension guidelines), affects over 1.5 billion people worldwide. Hypertension is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events (e.g. coronary heart disease, heart failure and stroke) and death. An international panel of experts convened by the International Society of Hypertension College of Experts compiled lifestyle management recommendations as first-line strategy to prevent and control hypertension in adulthood. We also recommend that lifestyle changes be continued even when blood pressure-lowering medications are prescribed. Specific recommendations based on literature evidence are summarized with advice to start these measures early in life, including maintaining a healthy body weight, increased levels of different types of physical activity, healthy eating and drinking, avoidance and cessation of smoking and alcohol use, management of stress and sleep levels. We also discuss the relevance of specific approaches including consumption of sodium, potassium, sugar, fibre, coffee, tea, intermittent fasting as well as integrated strategies to implement these recommendations using, for example, behaviour change-related technologies and digital tools.
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| 16. |
- Feigin, Valery L., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990–2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2019
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Ingår i: Lancet Neurology. - : Elsevier. - 1474-4422 .- 1474-4465. ; 18:5, s. 459-480
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders.Methods: We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach.Findings: Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247–308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8–9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34–44] and DALYs by 15% [9–21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26–30] and DALYs by 27% [24–31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6–46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7–20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0–12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6–10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05–1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5–90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8–35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8–17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable).Interpretation: Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies.Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 17. |
- Griswold, Max G., et al.
(författare)
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Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 392:10152, s. 1015-1035
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.Methods: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.Findings: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week.Interpretation: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.
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| 18. |
- Hermann, Silke, et al.
(författare)
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Level of education and the risk of lymphoma in the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition
- 2010
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Ingår i: Journal of Cancer Research and Clinical Oncology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1432-1335 .- 0171-5216. ; 136:1, s. 71-77
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Lymphomas belong to the few cancer sites with increasing incidence over past decades, and only a few risk factors have been established. We explored the association between education and the incidence of lymphoma in the prospective EPIC study. Within 3,567,410 person-years of follow-up, 1,319 lymphoma cases [1,253 non-Hodgkin lymphomas (NHL) and 66 Hodgkin lymphomas (HL)] were identified. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to examine the association between highest educational level (primary school or less, technical/professional school, secondary school, university) and lymphoma risk. Overall, no consistent associations between educational level and lymphoma risk were observed; however, associations were found for sub-groups of the cohort. We observed a higher risk of B-NHL (HR = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.02-1.68; n = 583) in women with the highest education level (university) but not in men. Concerning sub-classes of B-NHL, a positive association between education and risk of B cell chronic lymphatic leukaemia (BCLL) was observed only in women. In both genders, the risk of diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL) was significantly lower for subjects with university degree (HR = 0.46, 95% CI = 0.27-0.79) versus lowest educational level. No association was found for HL. We could not confirm an overall consistent association of education and risk of HL or NHL in this large prospective study; although, education was positively related to the incidence of BCLL and B-NHL (in women) but inversely to incidence of DLBCL. Due to limited number of cases in sub-classes and the large number of comparisons, the possibility of chance findings can not be excluded.
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| 19. |
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| 20. |
- Lawrenson, Kate, et al.
(författare)
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Functional mechanisms underlying pleiotropic risk alleles at the 19p13.1 breast-ovarian cancer susceptibility locus
- 2016
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A locus at 19p13 is associated with breast cancer (BC) and ovarian cancer (OC) risk. Here we analyse 438 SNPs in this region in 46,451 BC and 15,438 OC cases, 15,252 BRCA1 mutation carriers and 73,444 controls and identify 13 candidate causal SNPs associated with serous OC (P=9.2 × 10-20), ER-negative BC (P=1.1 × 10-13), BRCA1-associated BC (P=7.7 × 10-16) and triple negative BC (P-diff=2 × 10-5). Genotype-gene expression associations are identified for candidate target genes ANKLE1 (P=2 × 10-3) and ABHD8 (P<2 × 10-3). Chromosome conformation capture identifies interactions between four candidate SNPs and ABHD8, and luciferase assays indicate six risk alleles increased transactivation of the ADHD8 promoter. Targeted deletion of a region containing risk SNP rs56069439 in a putative enhancer induces ANKLE1 downregulation; and mRNA stability assays indicate functional effects for an ANKLE1 3′-UTR SNP. Altogether, these data suggest that multiple SNPs at 19p13 regulate ABHD8 and perhaps ANKLE1 expression, and indicate common mechanisms underlying breast and ovarian cancer risk.
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| 21. |
- Lin, Queran, et al.
(författare)
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Hypertension in stroke survivors and associations with national premature stroke mortality : data for 2·5 million participants from multinational screening campaigns
- 2022
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Ingår i: The Lancet Global Health. - 2214-109X. ; 10:8, s. 1141-1149
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Blood pressure control has a pivotal role in reducing the incidence and recurrence of stroke. May Measurement Month (MMM), which was initiated in 2017 by the International Society of Hypertension, is the largest global blood pressure screening campaign. We aim to compare MMM participants with and without a previous history of stroke and to investigate associations between national-level estimates of blood pressure management from MMM and premature stroke mortality. Methods: In this annual, global, cross-sectional survey, more than 2·5 million volunteers (≥18 years) from 92 countries were screened in May, 2017, and May, 2018. Three seated blood pressure readings and demographic, lifestyle, and cardiovascular disease data were collected. Associations between risk factors and stroke history were analysed with mixed-effects logistic regression, and associations between national-level estimates of blood pressure management and premature stroke mortality based on Global Burden of Disease data were investigated with linear regression. Findings: 2 222 399 (88·4%) of 2 515 365 participants had recorded data on a history of stroke, of whom 62 639 (2·8%) reported a previous stroke. Participants with a history of stroke had higher rates of hypertension (77·0% vs 32·9%, p<0·0001) and of treated (90·2% vs 57·0%, p<0·0001) and controlled (55·9% vs 32·4%, p<0·0001) hypertension than those without a history of stroke. A third of participants with a history of stroke had either untreated hypertension or treated but uncontrolled hypertension (blood pressure ≥140/90 mm Hg). Strong positive associations were found between national premature stroke mortality and mean systolic blood pressure (84·3 [95% CI 38·8 to 129·9] years of life lost [YLL] per 100 000 people per mm Hg increase) and the percentage of participants with raised blood pressure (49·1 [22·6 to 75·6] YLL per 100 000 people per 1% increase). Strong negative associations were found between national premature stroke mortality and the percentage of participants with hypertension on treatment (−21·0 [−33·0 to −8·9] YLL per 100 000 people per 1% increase) and with controlled blood pressure (−31·6 [−43·8 to −19·4] YLL per 100 000 people per 1% increase). Interpretation: Blood pressure control remains suboptimal worldwide among people with a history of stroke. National estimates of blood pressure management reflect national premature stroke mortality sufficiently to prompt policy makers to promote blood pressure screening and management. Funding: International Society of Hypertension and Servier Pharmaceuticals.
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| 22. |
- Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, et al.
(författare)
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Burden of musculoskeletal disorders in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990-2013 : findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2017
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Ingår i: Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases. - : BMJ. - 1468-2060 .- 0003-4967. ; 76, s. 1365-1373
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVES: We used findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 to report the burden of musculoskeletal disorders in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR).METHODS: The burden of musculoskeletal disorders was calculated for the EMR's 22 countries between 1990 and 2013. A systematic analysis was performed on mortality and morbidity data to estimate prevalence, death, years of live lost, years lived with disability and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).RESULTS: For musculoskeletal disorders, the crude DALYs rate per 100 000 increased from 1297.1 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 924.3-1703.4) in 1990 to 1606.0 (95% UI 1141.2-2130.4) in 2013. During 1990-2013, the total DALYs of musculoskeletal disorders increased by 105.2% in the EMR compared with a 58.0% increase in the rest of the world. The burden of musculoskeletal disorders as a proportion of total DALYs increased from 2.4% (95% UI 1.7-3.0) in 1990 to 4.7% (95% UI 3.6-5.8) in 2013. The range of point prevalence (per 1000) among the EMR countries was 28.2-136.0 for low back pain, 27.3-49.7 for neck pain, 9.7-37.3 for osteoarthritis (OA), 0.6-2.2 for rheumatoid arthritis and 0.1-0.8 for gout. Low back pain and neck pain had the highest burden in EMR countries.CONCLUSIONS: This study shows a high burden of musculoskeletal disorders, with a faster increase in EMR compared with the rest of the world. The reasons for this faster increase need to be explored. Our findings call for incorporating prevention and control programmes that should include improving health data, addressing risk factors, providing evidence-based care and community programmes to increase awareness.
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| 23. |
- Nisar, Muhammad Imran, et al.
(författare)
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Does the implementation of revised American College of Cardiology and American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guidelines improve the identification of stillbirths and preterm births in hypertensive pregnancies : a population-based cohort study from South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa
- 2024
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Ingår i: BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth. - : BioMed Central (BMC). - 1471-2393. ; 24:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP) are a significant cause of maternal mortality worldwide. The classification and treatment of hypertension in pregnancy remain debated. We aim to compare the effectiveness of the revised 2017 ACC/AHA blood pressure threshold in predicting adverse pregnancy outcomes. Methods We conducted a secondary data analysis of the Alliance for Maternal and Newborn Health Improvement (AMANHI) biorepository study, including 10,001 pregnant women from Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Tanzania. Blood pressure was measured using validated devices at different antenatal care visits. The blood pressure readings were categorized as: normal blood pressure (systolic blood pressure (sBP) < 120 mm Hg and diastolic blood pressure (dBP) < 80 mm Hg), elevated blood pressure (sBP 120-129 and dBP < 80), stage 1 hypertension (sBP 130-139 or dBP 80-89, or both), and stage 2 hypertension (sBP >= 140 or dBP >= 90, or both). We estimated risk ratios for stillbirths and preterm births, as well as diagnostic test properties of both the pre-existing JNC7 (>= 140/90) and revised ACC/AHA (>= 130/80) thresholds using normal blood pressure as reference group. Results From May 2014 to June 2018, blood pressure readings were available for 9,448 women (2,894 in Bangladesh, 2,303 in Pakistan, and 4,251 in Tanzania). We observed normal blood pressure in 70%, elevated blood pressure in 12.4%, stage 1 hypertension in 15.2%, and stage 2 hypertension in 2.5% of the pregnant women respectively. Out of these, 310 stillbirths and 9,109 live births were recorded, with 887 preterm births. Using the ACC/AHA criteria, the stage 1 hypertension cut-off revealed 15.3% additional hypertension diagnoses as compared to JNC7 criteria. ACC/AHA defined hypertension was significantly associated with stillbirths (RR 1.8, 95% CI 1.4, 2.3). The JNC 7 hypertension cut-off of >= 140/90 was significantly associated with a higher risk of preterm births (RR 1.6, 95% CI 1.2, 2.2) and stillbirths (RR 3.6, 95% CI 2.5, 5.3). Both criteria demonstrated low sensitivities (8.4 for JNC-7 and 28.1 for ACC/AHA) and positive predictive values (11.0 for JNC7 and 5.2 for ACC/AHA) in predicting adverse outcomes. Conclusion The ACC/AHA criteria (>= 130/80) identified additional cases of hypertension but had limited predictive accuracy for stillbirths and preterm births, highlighting the ongoing need for improved criteria in managing pregnancy-related hypertension.
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| 24. |
- Olszewski, Adam J., et al.
(författare)
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Burkitt Lymphoma International Prognostic Index
- 2021
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Ingår i: Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology. - 0732-183X. ; 39:10, s. 1129-1138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- PURPOSE: Burkitt lymphoma (BL) has unique biology and clinical course but lacks a standardized prognostic model. We developed and validated a novel prognostic index specific for BL to aid risk stratification, interpretation of clinical trials, and targeted development of novel treatment approaches. METHODS: We derived the BL International Prognostic Index (BL-IPI) from a real-world data set of adult patients with BL treated with immunochemotherapy in the United States between 2009 and 2018, identifying candidate variables that showed the strongest prognostic association with progression-free survival (PFS). The index was validated in an external data set of patients treated in Europe, Canada, and Australia between 2004 and 2019. RESULTS: In the derivation cohort of 633 patients with BL, age ≥ 40 years, performance status ≥ 2, serum lactate dehydrogenase > 3× upper limit of normal, and CNS involvement were selected as equally weighted factors with an independent prognostic value. The resulting BL-IPI identified groups with low (zero risk factors, 18% of patients), intermediate (one factor, 36% of patients), and high risk (≥ 2 factors, 46% of patients) with 3-year PFS estimates of 92%, 72%, and 53%, respectively, and 3-year overall survival estimates of 96%, 76%, and 59%, respectively. The index discriminated outcomes regardless of HIV status, stage, or first-line chemotherapy regimen. Patient characteristics, relative size of the BL-IPI groupings, and outcome discrimination were consistent in the validation cohort of 457 patients, with 3-year PFS estimates of 96%, 82%, and 63% for low-, intermediate-, and high-risk BL-IPI, respectively. CONCLUSION: The BL-IPI provides robust discrimination of survival in adult BL, suitable for use as prognostication and stratification in trials. The high-risk group has suboptimal outcomes with standard therapy and should be considered for innovative treatment approaches.
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| 25. |
- Poulter, Neil R., et al.
(författare)
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May Measurement Month : results of 12 national blood pressure screening programmes between 2017 and 2019
- 2022
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Ingår i: European Heart Journal, Supplement. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1520-765X .- 1554-2815. ; 24:Sf, s. 1-5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The frst May Measurement Month (MMM) campaign, a global blood pressure (BP) screening programme, began in 2017 as an initiative of the International Society of Hypertension.1 Two subsequent annual campaigns have also been completed in consecutive years2,3 and having had to defer activities due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 the fourth campaign was run in 2021, the results of which are currently in press. Since its initiation in 2017, volunteers from more than 100 countries have participated. The aims of MMM have remained consistent from the start-to raise awareness of the importance of the measurement of BP at the individual and population level and to provide a temporary pragmatic solution to the shortfall in BP screening programmes in countries around the world.
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| 26. |
- Rohrmann, Sabine, et al.
(författare)
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Consumption of meat and dairy and lymphoma risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition
- 2011
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Ingår i: International Journal of Cancer. - Geneve : Wiley. - 0020-7136 .- 1097-0215. ; 128:3, s. 623-634
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The consumption of meat and other foods of animal origin is a risk factor for several types of cancer, but the results for lymphomas are inconclusive. Therefore, we examined these associations among 411,097 participants of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. During a median follow-up of 8.5 years, 1,334 lymphomas (1,267 non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) and 67 Hodgkin lymphomas) were identified. Consumption of red and processed meat, poultry, milk and dairy products was assessed by dietary questionnaires. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to evaluate the association of the consumption of these food groups with lymphoma risk. Overall, the consumption of foods of animal origin was not associated with an increased risk of NHLS or HL, but the associations with specific subgroups of NHL entities were noted. A high intake of processed meat was associated with an increased risk of B-cell chronic lymphocytic leukemia (BCLL) [ relative risk (RR) per 50 g intake = 1.31, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.06-1.63], but a decreased risk of follicular lymphomas (FL) (RR = 0.58; CI 0.38-0.89). A high intake of poultry was related to an increased risk of B-cell lymphomas (RR = 1.22; CI 1.05-1.42 per 10 g intake), FL (RR = 1.65; CI 1.18-2.32) and BCLL (RR = 1.54; CI 1.18-2.01) in the continuous models. In conclusion, no consistent associations between red and processed meat consumption and lymphoma risk were observed, but we found that the consumption of poultry was related to an increased risk of B-cell lymphomas. Chance is a plausible explanation of the observed associations, which need to be confirmed in further studies.
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| 27. |
- Stergiou, George, et al.
(författare)
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Bedtime dosing of antihypertensive medications: systematic review and consensus statement : International Society of Hypertension position paper endorsed by World Hypertension League and European Society of Hypertension
- 2022
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Ingår i: Journal of Hypertension. - : Lippincott Williams & Wilkins. - 0263-6352 .- 1473-5598. ; 40:10, s. 1847-1858
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Antihypertensive drug therapy is one of the most efficient medical interventions for preventing disability and death globally. Most of the evidence supporting its benefits has been derived from outcome trials with morning dosing of medications. Accumulating evidence suggests an adverse prognosis associated with night-time hypertension, nondipping blood pressure (BP) profile and morning BP surge, with increased incidence of cardiovascular events during the first few morning hours. These observations provide justification for complete 24-h BP control as being the primary goal of antihypertensive treatment. Bedtime administration of antihypertensive drugs has also been proposed as a potentially more effective treatment strategy than morning administration. This Position Paper by the International Society of Hypertension reviewed the published evidence on the clinical relevance of the diurnal variation in BP and the timing of antihypertensive drug treatment, aiming to provide consensus recommendations for clinical practice. Eight published outcome hypertension studies involved bedtime dosing of antihypertensive drugs, and all had major methodological and/or other flaws and a high risk of bias in testing the impact of bedtime compared to morning treatment. Three ongoing, well designed, prospective, randomized controlled outcome trials are expected to provide high-quality data on the efficacy and safety of evening or bedtime versus morning drug dosing. Until that information is available, preferred use of bedtime drug dosing of antihypertensive drugs should not be routinely recommended in clinical practice. Complete 24-h control of BP should be targeted using readily available, long-acting antihypertensive medications as monotherapy or combinations administered in a single morning dose.
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