1. |
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2. |
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3. |
- Bravo, L, et al.
(författare)
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- 2021
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swepub:Mat__t
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4. |
- Thomas, HS, et al.
(författare)
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- 2019
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swepub:Mat__t
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5. |
- Tabiri, S, et al.
(författare)
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- 2021
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swepub:Mat__t
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6. |
- Glasbey, JC, et al.
(författare)
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- 2021
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swepub:Mat__t
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7. |
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8. |
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9. |
- Khatri, C, et al.
(författare)
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Outcomes after perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection in patients with proximal femoral fractures: an international cohort study
- 2021
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Ingår i: BMJ open. - : BMJ. - 2044-6055. ; 11:11, s. e050830-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Studies have demonstrated high rates of mortality in people with proximal femoral fracture and SARS-CoV-2, but there is limited published data on the factors that influence mortality for clinicians to make informed treatment decisions. This study aims to report the 30-day mortality associated with perioperative infection of patients undergoing surgery for proximal femoral fractures and to examine the factors that influence mortality in a multivariate analysis.SettingProspective, international, multicentre, observational cohort study.ParticipantsPatients undergoing any operation for a proximal femoral fracture from 1 February to 30 April 2020 and with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection (either 7 days prior or 30-day postoperative).Primary outcome30-day mortality. Multivariate modelling was performed to identify factors associated with 30-day mortality.ResultsThis study reports included 1063 patients from 174 hospitals in 19 countries. Overall 30-day mortality was 29.4% (313/1063). In an adjusted model, 30-day mortality was associated with male gender (OR 2.29, 95% CI 1.68 to 3.13, p<0.001), age >80 years (OR 1.60, 95% CI 1.1 to 2.31, p=0.013), preoperative diagnosis of dementia (OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.15 to 2.16, p=0.005), kidney disease (OR 1.73, 95% CI 1.18 to 2.55, p=0.005) and congestive heart failure (OR 1.62, 95% CI 1.06 to 2.48, p=0.025). Mortality at 30 days was lower in patients with a preoperative diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 (OR 0.6, 95% CI 0.6 (0.42 to 0.85), p=0.004). There was no difference in mortality in patients with an increase to delay in surgery (p=0.220) or type of anaesthetic given (p=0.787).ConclusionsPatients undergoing surgery for a proximal femoral fracture with a perioperative infection of SARS-CoV-2 have a high rate of mortality. This study would support the need for providing these patients with individualised medical and anaesthetic care, including medical optimisation before theatre. Careful preoperative counselling is needed for those with a proximal femoral fracture and SARS-CoV-2, especially those in the highest risk groups.Trial registration numberNCT04323644
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10. |
- Barber, R. M., et al.
(författare)
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Healthcare Access and Quality Index based on mortality from causes amenable to personal health care in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015: a novel analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2017
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Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier BV. - 0140-6736. ; 390:10091, s. 231-266
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. Methods We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure-the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index-on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r= 0.88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r= 0.83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r= 0.77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time. Findings Between 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28.6 to 94.6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among lowest-SDI countries. While the global HAQ Index average rose from 40.7 (95% uncertainty interval, 39.0-42.8) in 1990 to 53.7 (52.2-55.4) in 2015, far less progress occurred in narrowing the gap between observed HAQ Index values and maximum levels achieved; at the global level, the difference between the observed and frontier HAQ Index only decreased from 21.2 in 1990 to 20.1 in 2015. If every country and territory had achieved the highest observed HAQ Index by their corresponding level of SDI, the global average would have been 73.8 in 2015. Several countries, particularly in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa, reached HAQ Index values similar to or beyond their development levels, whereas others, namely in southern sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and south Asia, lagged behind what geographies of similar development attained between 1990 and 2015. Interpretation This novel extension of the GBD Study shows the untapped potential for personal health-care access and quality improvement across the development spectrum. Amid substantive advances in personal health care at the national level, heterogeneous patterns for individual causes in given countries or territories suggest that few places have consistently achieved optimal health-care access and quality across health-system functions and therapeutic areas. This is especially evident in middle-SDI countries, many of which have recently undergone or are currently experiencing epidemiological transitions. The HAQ Index, if paired with other measures of health-systemcharacteristics such as intervention coverage, could provide a robust avenue for tracking progress on universal health coverage and identifying local priorities for strengthening personal health-care quality and access throughout the world. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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11. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(författare)
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Precision measurement of the mass difference between light nuclei and anti-nuclei
- 2015
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Ingår i: Nature Physics. - 1745-2473. ; 11:10, s. 120-811
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The measurement of the mass differences for systems bound by the strong force has reached a very high precision with protons and anti-protons(1,2). The extension of such measurement from (anti-)baryons to (anti-) nuclei allows one to probe any difference in the interactions between nucleons and anti-nucleons encoded in the (anti-) nuclei masses. This force is a remnant of the underlying strong interaction among quarks and gluons and can be described by effective theories(3), but cannot yet be directly derived from quantum chromodynamics. Here we report a measurement of the difference between the ratios of the mass and charge of deuterons (d) and anti-deuterons ((d) over bar), and He-3 and (3)(He) over bar nuclei carried out with the ALICE (A Large Ion Collider Experiment)(4) detector in Pb-Pb collisions at a centre-of-mass energy per nucleon pair of 2.76 TeV. Our direct measurement of the mass-over-charge differences confirms CPT invariance to an unprecedented precision in the sector of light nuclei(5,6). This fundamental symmetry of nature, which exchanges particles with anti-particles, implies that all physics laws are the same under the simultaneous reversal of charge(s) (charge conjugation C), reflection of spatial coordinates (parity transformation P) and time inversion (T).
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12. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(författare)
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Centrality dependence of high-p(T) D meson suppression in Pb-Pb collisions at root s(NN)=2.76 TeV
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of High Energy Physics. - 1029-8479. ; :11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The nuclear modification factor, R-AA, of the prompt charmed mesons D-0, D+ and D*+, and their antiparticles, was measured with the ALICE detector in Pb-Pb collisions at a centre-of-mass energy root s(NN) = 2 : 76 TeV in two transverse momentum intervals, 5 < p(T) < 8 GeV/c and 8 < p(T) < 16 GeV/c, and in six collision centrality classes. The R-AA shows a maximum suppression of a factor of 5{6 in the 10% most central collisions. The suppression and its centrality dependence are compatible within uncertainties with those of charged pions. A comparison with the R-AA of non-prompt J/psi from B meson decays, measured by the CMS Collaboration, hints at a larger suppression of D mesons in the most central collisions.
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13. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(författare)
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Centrality dependence of inclusive J/psi production in p-Pb collisions at root S-NN=5.02TeV
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of High Energy Physics. - 1029-8479. ; :11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present a measurement of inclusive J/psi production in p-Pb collisions at root S-NN = 5.02 TeV as a function of the centrality of the collision, as estimated from the energy deposited in the Zero Degree Calorimeters. The measurement is performed with the ALICE detector down to zero transverse momentum, p(T), in the backward (-4.46 < y(cms) < -2.96) and forward (2.03 < y(cms) < 3.53) rapidity intervals in the dimuon decay channel and in the mid-rapidity region (-1.37 < y(cms) < 0.43) in the dielectron decay channel. The backward and forward rapidity intervals correspond to the Pb-going and p-going direction, respectively. The p(T)-differential J/psi production cross section at backward and forward rapidity is measured for several centrality classes, together with the corresponding average p(T) and p(T)(2) values. The nuclear modification factor is presented as a function of centrality for the three rapidity intervals, and as a function of p(T) for several centrality classes at backward and forward rapidity. At mid-and forward rapidity, the J/psi yield is suppressed up to 40% compared to that in pp interactions scaled by the number of binary collisions. The degree of suppression increases towards central p-Pb collisions at forward rapidity, and with decreasing p(T) of the J/psi. At backward rapidity, the nuclear modification factor is compatible with unity within the total uncertainties, with an increasing trend from peripheral to central p-Pb collisions.
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14. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(författare)
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Forward-backward multiplicity correlations in pp collisions at root s=0.9, 2.76 and 7 TeV
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of High Energy Physics. - 1029-8479. ; :5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The strength of forward-backward (FB) multiplicity correlations is measured by the ALICE detector in proton-proton (pp) collisions at = 0.9, 2.76 and 7 TeV. The measurement is performed in the central pseudorapidity region (|eta| < 0.8) for the transverse momentum p (T) > 0.3 GeV/c. Two separate pseudorapidity windows of width (delta eta) ranging from 0.2 to 0.8 are chosen symmetrically around eta = 0. The multiplicity correlation strength (b (corr)) is studied as a function of the pseudorapidity gap (eta (gap)) between the two windows as well as the width of these windows. The correlation strength is found to decrease with increasing eta (gap) and shows a non-linear increase with delta eta. A sizable increase of the correlation strength with the collision energy, which cannot be explained exclusively by the increase of the mean multiplicity inside the windows, is observed. The correlation coefficient is also measured for multiplicities in different configurations of two azimuthal sectors selected within the symmetric FB eta-windows. Two different contributions, the short-range (SR) and the long-range (LR), are observed. The energy dependence of b (corr) is found to be weak for the SR component while it is strong for the LR component. Moreover, the correlation coefficient is studied for particles belonging to various transverse momentum intervals chosen to have the same mean multiplicity. Both SR and LR contributions to b (corr) are found to increase with p (T) in this case. Results are compared to PYTHIA and PHOJET event generators and to a string-based phenomenological model. The observed dependencies of b (corr) add new constraints on phenomenological models.
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15. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(författare)
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Measurement of jet quenching with semi-inclusive hadron-jet distributions in central Pb-Pb collisions at root s(NN)=2.76 TeV
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of High Energy Physics. - 1029-8479. ; :9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report the measurement of a new observable of jet quenching in central Pb-Pb collisions at root s(NN) = 2.76 TeV, based on the semi-inclusive rate of charged jets recoiling from a high transverse momentum (high-p T) charged hadron trigger. Jets are measured using collinear-safe jet reconstruction with infrared cutoff for jet constituents of 0.15 GeV, for jet resolution parameters R = 0.2, 0.4 and 0.5. Underlying event background is corrected at the event-ensemble level, without imposing bias on the jet population. Recoil jet spectra are reported in the range 20 < p(T,jet)(ch) < 100 GeV. Reference distributions for pp collisions at root s = 2.76TeV are calculated using Monte Carlo and NLO pQCD methods, which are validated by comparing with measurements in pp collisions at root s = 7TeV. The recoil jet yield in central Pb-Pb collisions is found to be suppressed relative to that in pp collisions. No significant medium-induced broadening of the intra-jet energy profile is observed within 0.5 radians relative to the recoil jet axis. The angular distribution of the recoil jet yield relative to the trigger axis is found to be similar in central Pb-Pb and pp collisions, with no significant medium-induced acoplanarity observed. Large-angle jet deflection, which may provide a direct probe of the nature of the quasi-particles in hot QCD matter, is explored.
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16. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(författare)
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Coherent psi (2S) photo-production in ultra-peripheral Pb-Pb collisions at root s(NN)=2.76TeV
- 2015
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Ingår i: Physics Letters. Section B: Nuclear, Elementary Particle and High-Energy Physics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0370-2693. ; 751, s. 358-370
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We have performed the first measurement of the coherent psi(2S) photo-production cross section in ultraperipheral Pb-Pb collisions at the LHC. This charmonium excited state is reconstructed via the psi(2S) -> l(+)l(-) and ->(2S) -> J/psi pi(+)pi(-) decays, where the J/psi decays into two leptons. The analysis is based on an event sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of about 22 mu b(-1). The cross section for coherent psi(2S) production in the rapidity interval -0.9 < y < 0.9is d sigma(coh)(psi(2S))/dy = 0.83 +/- 0.19 (stat+syst) mb. The psi(2S) to J/psi coherent cross section ratio is 0.34(-0.07)(+0.08)(stat+syst). The obtained results are compared to predictions from theoretical models. (C) 2015 CERN for the benefit of the ALICE Collaboration. Published by Elsevier B.V.
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17. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(författare)
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Coherent rho(0) photoproduction in ultra-peripheral Pb-Pb collisions at root s(NN)=2.76 TeV
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of High Energy Physics. - 1029-8479. ; :9
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report the first measurement at the LHC of coherent photoproduction of rho(0) mesons in ultra-peripheral Pb-Pb collisions. The invariant mass and transverse momentum distributions for rho(0) production are studied in the pi(+)pi(-) decay channel at mid-rapidity. The production cross section in the rapidity range vertical bar y vertical bar < 0.5 is found to be d sigma/dy = 425 +/- 10 (stat.) (+42)(-50) (sys.) mb. Coherent rho(0) production is studied with and without requirement of nuclear breakup, and the fractional yields for various breakup scenarios are presented. The results are compared with those from lower energies and with model predictions.
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18. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(författare)
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Inclusive, prompt and non-prompt J/psi production at mid-rapidity in Pb-Pb collisions at root S-NN=2.76 TeV
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of High Energy Physics. - 1029-8479. ; :7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The transverse momentum (p(T)) dependence of the nuclear modification factor R-AA and the centrality dependence of the average transverse momentum for inclusive J/psi have been measured with ALICE for Pb-Pb collisions at root S-NN = 2.76TeV in the e(+)e(-) decay channel at mid-rapidity (vertical bar y vertical bar < 0.8). The is significantly smaller than the one observed for pp collisions at the same centre-of-mass energy. Consistently, an increase of RAA is observed towards low p(T). These observations might be indicative of a sizable contribution of charm quark coalescence to the J/psi production. Additionally, the fraction of non-prompt J/psi from beauty hadron decays, f(B), has been determined in the region 1.5 < p(T) < 10 GeV/c in three centrality intervals. No significant centrality dependence of fB is observed. Finally, the RAA of non-prompt J/psi is discussed and compared with model predictions. The nuclear modification in the region 4.5 < p(T) < 10 GeV/c is found to be stronger than predicted by most models.
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19. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(författare)
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Measurement of charged jet production cross sections and nuclear modification in p-Pb collisions at root s(NN)=5.02 TeV
- 2015
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Ingår i: Physics Letters. Section B: Nuclear, Elementary Particle and High-Energy Physics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0370-2693. ; 749, s. 68-81
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Charged jet production cross sections in p-Pb collisions at root s(NN) = 5.02 TeV measured with the ALICE detector at the LHC are presented. Using the anti-k(T) algorithm, jets have been reconstructed in the central rapidity region from charged particles with resolution parameters R = 0.2 and R = 0.4. The reconstructed jets have been corrected for detector effects and the underlying event background. To calculate the nuclear modification factor, R-pPb, of charged jets in p-Pb collisions, a pp reference was constructed by scaling previously measured charged jet spectra at root s = 7 TeV. In the transverse momentum range 20 <= p(T, chjet) <= 120 GeV/c, R-pPb is found to be consistent with unity, indicating the absence of strong nuclear matter effects on jet production. Major modifications to the radial jet structure are probed via the ratio of jet production cross sections reconstructed with the two different resolution parameters. This ratio is found to be similar to the measurement in pp collisions at root s = 7 TeV and to the expectations from PYTHIA pp simulations and NLO pQCD calculations at root s(NN) = 5.02 TeV. (C) 2015 CERN for the benefit of the ALICE Collaboration. Published by Elsevier B.V.
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20. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(författare)
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Measurement of dijet k(T) in p-Pb collisions at root s(NN)=5.02 TeV
- 2015
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Ingår i: Physics Letters. Section B: Nuclear, Elementary Particle and High-Energy Physics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0370-2693. ; 746, s. 385-395
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A measurement of dijet correlations in p-Pb collisions at root s(NN) = 5.02 TeV with the ALICE detector is presented. Jets are reconstructed from charged particles measured in the central tracking detectors and neutral energy deposited in the electromagnetic calorimeter. The transverse momentum of the full jet (clustered from charged and neutral constituents) and charged jet (clustered from charged particles only) is corrected event-by-event for the contribution of the underlying event, while corrections for underlying event fluctuations and finite detector resolution are applied on an inclusive basis. A projection of the dijet transverse momentum, k(Ty) = p(T,jet)(ch+ne) sin(Delta phi(dijet)) with Delta phi(dijet) the azimuthal angle between a full and charged jet and p(T,jet)(ch+ne) the transverse momentum of the full jet, is used to study nuclear matter effects in p-Pb collisions. This observable is sensitive to the acoplanarity of dijet production and its potential modificationin p-Pb collisions with respect to pp collisions. Measurements of the dijet k(Ty) as a function of the transverse momentum of the full and recoil charged jet, and the event multiplicity are presented. No significant modification of k(Ty) due to nuclear matter effects in p-Pb collisions with respect to the event multiplicity or a PYTHIA8 reference is observed. (C) 2015 CERN for the benefit of the ALICE Collaboration. Published by Elsevier B.V.
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21. |
- Adam, J, et al.
(författare)
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Measurement of pion, kaon and proton production in proton-proton collisions at [Formula: see text] TeV.
- 2015
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Ingår i: European Physical Journal C. Particles and Fields. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1434-6044. ; 75:5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The measurement of primary [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] production at mid-rapidity ([Formula: see text] 0.5) in proton-proton collisions at [Formula: see text][Formula: see text] 7 TeV performed with a large ion collider experiment at the large hadron collider (LHC) is reported. Particle identification is performed using the specific ionisation energy-loss and time-of-flight information, the ring-imaging Cherenkov technique and the kink-topology identification of weak decays of charged kaons. Transverse momentum spectra are measured from 0.1 up to 3 GeV/[Formula: see text] for pions, from 0.2 up to 6 GeV/[Formula: see text] for kaons and from 0.3 up to 6 GeV/[Formula: see text] for protons. The measured spectra and particle ratios are compared with quantum chromodynamics-inspired models, tuned to reproduce also the earlier measurements performed at the LHC. Furthermore, the integrated particle yields and ratios as well as the average transverse momenta are compared with results at lower collision energies.
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22. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(författare)
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One-dimensional pion, kaon, and proton femtoscopy in Pb-Pb collisions at root(NN)-N-S=2.76 TeV
- 2015
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Ingår i: Physical Review C (Nuclear Physics). - 0556-2813. ; 92:5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The size of the particle emission region in high-energy collisions can be deduced using the femtoscopic correlations of particle pairs at low relative momentum. Such correlations arise due to quantum statistics and Coulomb and strong final state interactions. In this paper, results are presented from femtoscopic analyses of pi(+/-) pi(+/-), K-+/- K-+/-, K-S(0) K-S(0), pp, and (pp) over bar correlations from Pb-Pb collisions at root s(NN) = 2.76 TeV by the ALICE experiment at the LHC. One-dimensional radii of the system are extracted from correlation functions in terms of the invariant momentum difference of the pair. The comparison of the measured radii with the predictions from a hydrokinetic model is discussed. The pion and kaon source radii display a monotonic decrease with increasing average pair transverse mass m(T) which is consistent with hydrodynamic model predictions for central collisions. The kaon and proton source sizes can be reasonably described by approximate m(T) scaling.
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23. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(författare)
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Search for weakly decaying (Lambda n)over-bar and Lambda Lambda exotic bound states in central Pb-Pb collisions at root S-NN=2.76 TeV
- 2016
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Ingår i: Physics Letters. Section B: Nuclear, Elementary Particle and High-Energy Physics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0370-2693. ; 752, s. 267-277
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present results of a search for two hypothetical strange dibaryon states, i.e. the H-dibaryon and the possible (Lambda n) over bar bound state. The search is performed with the ALICE detector in central (0-10%) Pb-Pb collisions at root S-NN = 2.76 TeV, by invariant mass analysis in the decay modes (Lambda n) over bar (d) over bar pi(+) and H-dibaryon -> Lambda p pi(-). No evidence for these bound states is observed. Upper limits are determined at 99% confidence level for a wide range of lifetimes and for the full range of branching ratios. The results are compared to thermal, coalescence and hybrid UrQMD model expectations, which describe correctly the production of other loosely bound states, like the deuteron and the hypertriton. (C) 2015 CERN for the benefit of the ALICE Collaboration. Published by Elsevier B.V.
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24. |
- Barber, R. M., et al.
(författare)
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Healthcare access and quality index based on mortality from causes amenable to personal health care in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015 : A novel analysis from the global burden of disease study 2015
- 2017
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Lancet Publishing Group. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10091, s. 231-266
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. Methods We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure-the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index-on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r=0·88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r=0·83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r=0·77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time. Findings Between 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28·6 to 94·6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among lowest-SDI countries. While the global HAQ Index average rose from 40·7 (95% uncertainty interval, 39·0-42·8) in 1990 to 53·7 (52·2-55·4) in 2015, far less progress occurred in narrowing the gap between observed HAQ Index values and maximum levels achieved; at the global level, the difference between the observed and frontier HAQ Index only decreased from 21·2 in 1990 to 20·1 in 2015. If every country and territory had achieved the highest observed HAQ Index by their corresponding level of SDI, the global average would have been 73·8 in 2015. Several countries, particularly in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa, reached HAQ Index values similar to or beyond their development levels, whereas others, namely in southern sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and south Asia, lagged behind what geographies of similar development attained between 1990 and 2015. Interpretation This novel extension of the GBD Study shows the untapped potential for personal health-care access and quality improvement across the development spectrum. Amid substantive advances in personal health care at the national level, heterogeneous patterns for individual causes in given countries or territories suggest that few places have consistently achieved optimal health-care access and quality across health-system functions and therapeutic areas. This is especially evident in middle-SDI countries, many of which have recently undergone or are currently experiencing epidemiological transitions. The HAQ Index, if paired with other measures of health-system characteristics such as intervention coverage, could provide a robust avenue for tracking progress on universal health coverage and identifying local priorities for strengthening personal health-care quality and access throughout the world. Copyright © The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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25. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(författare)
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Measurement of charm and beauty production at central rapidity versus charged-particle multiplicity in proton-proton collisions at root s=7 TeV
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of High Energy Physics. - 1029-8479. ; :9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Prompt D meson and non-prompt J/psi yields are studied as a function of the multiplicity of charged particles produced in inelastic proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of root s = 7 TeV. The results are reported as a ratio between yields in a given multiplicity interval normalised to the multiplicity-integrated ones (relative yields). They are shown as a function of the multiplicity of charged particles normalised to the average value for inelastic collisions (relative charged-particle multiplicity). D-0, D+ and D*+ mesons are measured in five p(T) intervals from 1 GeV/c to 20 GeV/c and for |y| < 0.5 via their hadronic decays. The D-meson relative yield is found to increase with increasing charged-particle multiplicity. For events with multiplicity six times higher than the average multiplicity of inelastic collisions, a yield enhancement of a factor about 15 relative to the multiplicity-integrated yield in inelastic collisions is observed. The yield enhancement is independent of transverse momentum within the uncertainties of the measurement. The D-0-meson relative yield is also measured as a function of the relative multiplicity at forward pseudo-rapidity. The non-prompt J/psi, i.e. the B hadron, contribution to the inclusive J/psi production is measured in the di-electron decay channel at central rapidity. It is evaluated for p(T) > 1.3 GeV/c and |y| < 0.9, and extrapolated to p(T) > 0. The fraction of non-prompt J/psi the inclusive J/psi yields shows no dependence on the charged-particle multiplicity at central rapidity. Charm and beauty hadron relative yields exhibit a similar increase with increasing charged-particle multiplicity. The measurements are compared to PYTHIA 8, EPOS 3 and percolation calculations.
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26. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(författare)
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Measurement of jet suppression in central Pb-Pb collisions at root s(NN)=2.76 TeV
- 2015
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Ingår i: Physics Letters. Section B: Nuclear, Elementary Particle and High-Energy Physics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0370-2693. ; 746, s. 1-14
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The transverse momentum(p(T)) spectrum and nuclear modification factor (R-AA) of reconstructed jets in 0-10% and 10-30% central Pb-Pb collisions at root s(NN) = 2.76 TeV were measured. Jets were reconstructed using the anti-k(T) jet algorithm with a resolution parameter of R = 0.2 from charged and neutral particles, utilizing the ALICE tracking detectors and Electromagnetic Calorimeter (EMCal). The jet p(T) spectra are reported in the pseudorapidity interval of \eta(jet)\ < 0.5 for 40 < p(T), jet < 120 GeV/c in 0-10% and for 30 < p(T), jet < 100 GeV/c in 10-30% collisions. Reconstructed jets were required to contain a leading charged particle with p(T) > 5 GeV/c to suppress jets constructed from the combinatorial background in Pb-Pb collisions. The leading charged particle requirement applied to jet spectra both in pp and Pb-Pb collisions had a negligible effect on the R-AA. The nuclear modification factor R-AA was found to be 0.28 +/- 0.04 in 0-10% and 0.35 +/- 0.04 in 10-30% collisions, independent of p(T), jet within the uncertainties of the measurement. The observed suppression is in fair agreement with expectations from two model calculations with different approaches to jet quenching. (C) 2015 CERN for the benefit of the ALICE Collaboration. Published by Elsevier B.V.
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27. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(författare)
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Rapidity and transverse-momentum dependence of the inclusive J/psi nuclear modification factor in p-Pb collisions at root s(NN)=5.02 TeV
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of High Energy Physics. - 1029-8479. ; :6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We have studied the transverse-momentum (p(T)) dependence of the inclusive J/psi production in p-Pb collisions at root s(NN) = 5.02 TeV, in three center-of-mass rapidity (y(cms)) regions, down to zero p(T). Results in the forward and backward rapidity ranges (2.03 < y(cms) < 3.53 and -4.46 < y(cms) < -2.96) are obtained by studying the J/psi decay to mu(+)mu(-), while the mid-rapidity region (-1.37 < y(cms) < 0.43) is investigated by measuring the e(+)e(-) decay channel. The p(T) dependence of the J/psi production cross section and nuclear modification factor are presented for each of the rapidity intervals, as well as the J/psi mean p(T) values. Forward and mid-rapidity results show a suppression of the J/psi yield, with respect to pp collisions, which decreases with increasing p(T). At backward rapidity no significant J/psi suppression is observed. Theoretical models including a combination of cold nuclear matter effects such as shadowing and partonic energy loss, are in fair agreement with the data, except at forward rapidity and low transverse momentum. The implications of the p-Pb results for the evaluation of cold nuclear matter effects on J/psi production in Pb-Pb collisions are also discussed.
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28. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(författare)
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Two-pion femtoscopy in p-Pb collisions at root(NN)-N-S=5.02 TeV
- 2015
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Ingår i: Physical Review C (Nuclear Physics). - 0556-2813. ; 91:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report the results of the femtoscopic analysis of pairs of identical pions measured in p-Pb collisions at root(NN)-N-S = 5.02 TeV. Femtoscopic radii are determined as a function of event multiplicity and pair momentum in three spatial dimensions. As in the pp collision system, the analysis is complicated by the presence of sizable background correlation structures in addition to the femtoscopic signal. The radii increase with event multiplicity and decrease with pair transverse momentum. When taken at comparable multiplicity, the radii measured in p-Pb collisions, at high multiplicity and low pair transverse momentum, are 10%-20% higher than those observed in pp collisions but below those observed in A-A collisions. The results are compared to hydrodynamic predictions at large event multiplicity as well as discussed in the context of calculations based on gluon saturation.
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29. |
- Hay, S. I., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2017
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Lancet Publishing Group. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1260-1344
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Methods: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE difered from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate. Findings: The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9-78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8-75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0-49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0-44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97-6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74-6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08-6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61-1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69-2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2·3% [-5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs ofset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the fve lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally. Interpretation: At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs ofset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention eforts, and development assistance for health, including fnancial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support. © The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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- 2019
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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33. |
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35. |
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36. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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37. |
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39. |
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40. |
- Wang, HD, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, national, and selected subnational levels of stillbirths, neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: Lancet (London, England). - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 388:10053, s. 1725-1774
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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41. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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42. |
- Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
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43. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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44. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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45. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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46. |
- Mokdad, A. H., et al.
(författare)
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Intentional injuries in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990â2015 : findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study
- 2018
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Ingår i: International Journal of Public Health. - : Springer International Publishing. - 1661-8556 .- 1661-8564. ; 63, s. 39-46
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objectives: We used GBD 2015 findings to measure the burden of intentional injuries in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) between 1990 and 2015. Methods: The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study defines intentional injuries as a combination of self-harm (including suicide), interpersonal violence, collective violence (war), and legal intervention. We estimated number of deaths, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for each type of intentional injuries. Results: In 2015, 28,695 individuals (95% UI: 25,474â37,832) died from self-harm, 35,626 (95% UI: 20,947â41,857) from interpersonal violence, and 143,858 (95% UI: 63,554â223,092) from collective violence and legal interventions. In 2015, collective violence and legal intervention was the fifth-leading cause of DALYs in the EMR and the leading cause in Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya; they account for 49.7% of total DALYs in Syria. Conclusions: Our findings call for increased efforts to stabilize the region and assist in rebuilding the health systems, as well as increasing transparency and employing preventive strategies to reduce self-harm and interpersonal injuries. © 2017, The Author(s).
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47. |
- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(författare)
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- 2020
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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48. |
- Feigin, Valery L., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990–2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2019
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Ingår i: Lancet Neurology. - : Elsevier. - 1474-4422 .- 1474-4465. ; 18:5, s. 459-480
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders.Methods: We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach.Findings: Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247–308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8–9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34–44] and DALYs by 15% [9–21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26–30] and DALYs by 27% [24–31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6–46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7–20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0–12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6–10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05–1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5–90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8–35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8–17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable).Interpretation: Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies.Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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49. |
- Feigin, Valery L., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990-2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- 2021
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Ingår i: Lancet Neurology. - : Elsevier. - 1474-4422 .- 1474-4465. ; 20:10, s. 795-820
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels. Methods We applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level. Findings In 2019, there were 12.2 million (95% UI 11.0-13.6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93.2-111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133-153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6.55 million (6.00-7.02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11.6% [10.8-12.2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5.7% [5.1-6.2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70.0% (67.0-73.0), prevalent strokes increased by 85.0% (83.0-88.0), deaths from stroke increased by 43.0% (31.0-55.0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32.0% (22.0-42.0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17.0% (15.0-18.0), mortality decreased by 36.0% (31.0-42.0), prevalence decreased by 6.0% (5.0-7.0), and DALYs decreased by 36.0% (31.0-42.0). However, among people younger than 70 years, prevalence rates increased by 22.0% (21.0-24.0) and incidence rates increased by 15.0% (12.0-18.0). In 2019, the age-standardised stroke-related mortality rate was 3.6 (3.5-3.8) times higher in the World Bank low-income group than in the World Bank high-income group, and the age-standardised stroke-related DALY rate was 3.7 (3.5-3.9) times higher in the low-income group than the high-income group. Ischaemic stroke constituted 62.4% of all incident strokes in 2019 (7.63 million [6.57-8.96]), while intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 27.9% (3.41 million [2.97-3.91]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 9.7% (1.18 million [1.01-1.39]). In 2019, the five leading risk factors for stroke were high systolic blood pressure (contributing to 79.6 million [67.7-90.8] DALYs or 55.5% [48.2-62.0] of total stroke DALYs), high body-mass index (34.9 million [22.3-48.6] DALYs or 24.3% [15.7-33.2]), high fasting plasma glucose (28.9 million [19.8-41.5] DALYs or 20.2% [13.8-29.1]), ambient particulate matter pollution (28.7 million [23.4-33.4] DALYs or 20.1% [16.6-23.0]), and smoking (25.3 million [22.6-28.2] DALYs or 17.6% [16.4-19.0]). Interpretation The annual number of strokes and deaths due to stroke increased substantially from 1990 to 2019, despite substantial reductions in age-standardised rates, particularly among people older than 70 years. The highest age-standardised stroke-related mortality and DALY rates were in the World Bank low-income group. The fastest-growing risk factor for stroke between 1990 and 2019 was high body-mass index. Without urgent implementation of effective primary prevention strategies, the stroke burden will probably continue to grow across the world, particularly in low-income countries.
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