| 1. |
- Kirdyanov, Alexander V., et al.
(författare)
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Ecological and conceptual consequences of Arctic pollution
- 2020
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Ingår i: Ecology Letters. - : Wiley. - 1461-023X .- 1461-0248. ; 23:12, s. 1827-1837
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Although the effect of pollution on forest health and decline received much attention in the 1980s, it has not been considered to explain the 'Divergence Problem' in dendroclimatology; a decoupling of tree growth from rising air temperatures since the 1970s. Here we use physical and biogeochemical measurements of hundreds of living and dead conifers to reconstruct the impact of heavy industrialisation around Norilsk in northern Siberia. Moreover, we develop a forward model with surface irradiance forcing to quantify long-distance effects of anthropogenic emissions on the functioning and productivity of Siberia's taiga. Downwind from the world's most polluted Arctic region, tree mortality rates of up to 100% have destroyed 24,000 km(2)boreal forest since the 1960s, coincident with dramatic increases in atmospheric sulphur, copper, and nickel concentrations. In addition to regional ecosystem devastation, we demonstrate how 'Arctic Dimming' can explain the circumpolar 'Divergence Problem', and discuss implications on the terrestrial carbon cycle.
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| 2. |
- Büntgen, Ulf, et al.
(författare)
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The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions
- 2021
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Tree-ring chronologies underpin the majority of annually-resolved reconstructions of Common Era climate. However, they are derived using different datasets and techniques, the ramifications of which have hitherto been little explored. Here, we report the results of a double-blind experiment that yielded 15 Northern Hemisphere summer temperature reconstructions from a common network of regional tree-ring width datasets. Taken together as an ensemble, the Common Era reconstruction mean correlates with instrumental temperatures from 1794–2016 CE at 0.79 (p < 0.001), reveals summer cooling in the years following large volcanic eruptions, and exhibits strong warming since the 1980s. Differing in their mean, variance, amplitude, sensitivity, and persistence, the ensemble members demonstrate the influence of subjectivity in the reconstruction process. We therefore recommend the routine use of ensemble reconstruction approaches to provide a moreconsensual picture of past climate variability.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Büntgen, Ulf, et al.
(författare)
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Cooling and societal change during the Late Antique Little Ice Age from 536 to around 660 AD
- 2016
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Ingår i: Nature Geoscience. - 1752-0894 .- 1752-0908. ; 9:3, s. 231-236
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climatic changes during the first half of the Common Era have been suggested to play a role in societal reorganizations in Europe and Asia. In particular, the sixth century coincides with rising and falling civilizations, pandemics, human migration and political turmoil. Our understanding of the magnitude and spatial extent as well as the possible causes and concurrences of climate change during this period is, however, still limited. Here we use tree-ring chronologies from the Russian Altai and European Alps to reconstruct summer temperatures over the past two millennia. We find an unprecedented, long-lasting and spatially synchronized cooling following a cluster of large volcanic eruptions in 536, 540 and 547 AD, which was probably sustained by ocean and sea-ice feedbacks, as well as a solar minimum. We thus identify the interval from 536 to about 660 AD as the Late Antique Little Ice Age. Spanning most of the Northern Hemisphere, we suggest that this cold phase be considered as an additional environmental factor contributing to the establishment of the Justinian plague, transformation of the eastern Roman Empire and collapse of the Sasanian Empire, movements out of the Asian steppe and Arabian Peninsula, spread of Slavic-speaking peoples and political upheavals in China.
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| 5. |
- Büntgen, Ulf, et al.
(författare)
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Global tree-ring response and inferred climate variation following the mid-thirteenth century Samalas eruption
- 2022
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Ingår i: Climate Dynamics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0930-7575 .- 1432-0894. ; 59:1-2, s. 531-546
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The largest explosive volcanic eruption of the Common Era in terms of estimated sulphur yield to the stratosphere was identified in glaciochemical records 40 years ago, and dates to the mid-thirteenth century. Despite eventual attribution to the Samalas (Rinjani) volcano in Indonesia, the eruption date remains uncertain, and the climate response only partially understood. Seeking a more global perspective on summer surface temperature and hydroclimate change following the eruption, we present an analysis of 249 tree-ring chronologies spanning the thirteenth century and representing all continents except Antarctica. Of the 170 predominantly temperature sensitive high-frequency chronologies, the earliest hints of boreal summer cooling are the growth depressions found at sites in the western US and Canada in 1257 CE. If this response is a result of Samalas, it would be consistent with an eruption window of circa May-July 1257 CE. More widespread summer cooling across the mid-latitudes of North America and Eurasia is pronounced in 1258, while records from Scandinavia and Siberia reveal peak cooling in 1259. In contrast to the marked post-Samalas temperature response at high-elevation sites in the Northern Hemisphere, no strong hydroclimatic anomalies emerge from the 79 precipitation-sensitive chronologies. Although our findings remain spatially biased towards the western US and central Europe, and growth-climate response patterns are not always dominated by a single meteorological factor, this study offers a global proxy framework for the evaluation of paleoclimate model simulations.
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| 6. |
- Büntgen, Ulf, et al.
(författare)
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Global wood anatomical perspective on the onset of the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA) in the mid-6th century CE
- 2022
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Ingår i: Science Bulletin. - : Elsevier BV. - 2095-9273. ; 67:22, s. 2336-2344
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Linked to major volcanic eruptions around 536 and 540 CE, the onset of the Late Antique Little Ice Age has been described as the coldest period of the past two millennia. The exact timing and spatial extent of this exceptional cold phase are, however, still under debate because of the limited resolution and geographical distribution of the available proxy archives. Here, we use 106 wood anatomical thin sections from 23 forest sites and 20 tree species in both hemispheres to search for cell-level fingerprints of ephemeral summer cooling between 530 and 550 CE. After cross-dating and double-staining, we identified 89 Blue Rings (lack of cell wall lignification), nine Frost Rings (cell deformation and collapse), and 93 Light Rings (reduced cell wall thickening) in the Northern Hemisphere. Our network reveals evidence for the strongest temperature depression between mid-July and early-August 536 CE across North America and Eurasia, whereas more localised cold spells occurred in the summers of 532, 540–43, and 548 CE. The lack of anatomical signatures in the austral trees suggests limited incursion of stratospheric volcanic aerosol into the Southern Hemisphere extra-tropics, that any forcing was mitigated by atmosphere-ocean dynamical responses and/or concentrated outside the growing season, or a combination of factors. Our findings demonstrate the advantage of wood anatomical investigations over traditional dendrochronological measurements, provide a benchmark for Earth system models, support cross-disciplinary studies into the entanglements of climate and history, and question the relevance of global climate averages.
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| 7. |
- Büntgen, Ulf, et al.
(författare)
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Limited capacity of tree growth to mitigate the global greenhouse effect under predicted warming
- 2019
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- It is generally accepted that animal heartbeat and lifespan are often inversely correlated, however, the relationship between productivity and longevity has not yet been described for trees growing under industrial and pre-industrial climates. Using 1768 annually resolved and absolutely dated ring width measurement series from living and dead conifers that grew in undisturbed, high-elevation sites in the Spanish Pyrenees and the Russian Altai over the past 2000 years, we test the hypothesis of grow fast-die young. We find maximum tree ages are significantly correlated with slow juvenile growth rates. We conclude, the interdependence between higher stem productivity, faster tree turnover, and shorter carbon residence time, reduces the capacity of forest ecosystems to store carbon under a climate warming-induced stimulation of tree growth at policy-relevant timescales.
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| 8. |
- Büntgen, Ulf, et al.
(författare)
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Prominent role of volcanism in Common Era climate variability and human history
- 2020
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Ingår i: Dendrochronologia. - : Elsevier BV. - 1125-7865 .- 1612-0051. ; 64
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- © 2020 Elsevier GmbH Climate reconstructions for the Common Era are compromised by the paucity of annually-resolved and absolutely-dated proxy records prior to medieval times. Where reconstructions are based on combinations of different climate archive types (of varying spatiotemporal resolution, dating uncertainty, record length and predictive skill), it is challenging to estimate past amplitude ranges, disentangle the relative roles of natural and anthropogenic forcing, or probe deeper interrelationships between climate variability and human history. Here, we compile and analyse updated versions of all the existing summer temperature sensitive tree-ring width chronologies from the Northern Hemisphere that span the entire Common Era. We apply a novel ensemble approach to reconstruct extra-tropical summer temperatures from 1 to 2010 CE, and calculate uncertainties at continental to hemispheric scales. Peak warming in the 280s, 990s and 1020s, when volcanic forcing was low, was comparable to modern conditions until 2010 CE. The lowest June–August temperature anomaly in 536 not only marks the beginning of the coldest decade, but also defines the onset of the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA). While prolonged warmth during Roman and medieval times roughly coincides with the tendency towards societal prosperity across much of the North Atlantic/European sector and East Asia, major episodes of volcanically-forced summer cooling often presaged widespread famines, plague outbreaks and political upheavals. Our study reveals a larger amplitude of spatially synchronized summer temperature variation during the first millennium of the Common Era than previously recognised.
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| 9. |
- Büntgen, Ulf, et al.
(författare)
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Reply to 'Limited Late Antique cooling'
- 2017
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Ingår i: Nature Geoscience. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1752-0894 .- 1752-0908. ; 10:4, s. 243-243
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 10. |
- Esper, Jan, et al.
(författare)
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Ranking of tree-ring based temperature reconstructions of the past millennium
- 2016
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Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 145, s. 134-151
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Tree-ring chronologies are widely used to reconstruct high-to low-frequency variations in growing season temperatures over centuries to millennia. The relevance of these timeseries in large-scale climate reconstructions is often determined by the strength of their correlation against instrumental temperature data. However, this single criterion ignores several important quantitative and qualitative characteristics of tree-ring chronologies. Those characteristics are (i) data homogeneity, (ii) sample replication, (iii) growth coherence, (iv) chronology development, and (v) climate signal including the correlation with instrumental data. Based on these 5 characteristics, a reconstruction-scoring scheme is proposed and applied to 39 published, millennial-length temperature reconstructions from Asia, Europe, North America, and the Southern Hemisphere. Results reveal no reconstruction scores highest in every category and each has their own strengths and weaknesses. Reconstructions that perform better overall include N-Scan and Finland from Europe, E-Canada from North America, Yamal and Dzhelo from Asia. Reconstructions performing less well include W-Himalaya and Karakorum from Asia, Tatra and S-Finland from Europe, and Great Basin from North America. By providing a comprehensive set of criteria to evaluate tree-ring chronologies we hope to improve the development of large-scale temperature reconstructions spanning the past millennium. All reconstructions and their corresponding scores are provided at www.blogs.uni-mainz.de/fb09climatology.
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| 11. |
- Hellmann, Lena, et al.
(författare)
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Diverse growth trends and climate responses across Eurasia's boreal forest
- 2016
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 11:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The area covered by boreal forests accounts for similar to 16% of the global and 22% of the Northern Hemisphere landmass. Changes in the productivity and functioning of this circumpolar biome not only have strong effects on species composition and diversity at regional to larger scales, but also on the Earth's carbon cycle. Although temporal inconsistency in the response of tree growth to temperature has been reported from some locations at the higher northern latitudes, a systematic dendroecological network assessment is still missing for most of the boreal zone. Here, we analyze the geographical patterns of changes in summer temperature and precipitation across northern Eurasia >60 degrees N since 1951 AD, as well as the growth trends and climate responses of 445 Pinus, Larix and Picea ring width chronologies in the same area and period. In contrast to widespread summer warming, fluctuations in precipitation and tree growth are spatially more diverse and overall less distinct. Although the influence of summer temperature on ring formation is increasing with latitude and distinct moisture effects are restricted to a few southern locations, growth sensitivity to June-July temperature variability is only significant at 16.6% of all sites (p <= 0.01). By revealing complex climate constraints on the productivity of Eurasia's northern forests, our results question the a priori suitability of boreal tree-ring width chronologies for reconstructing summer temperatures. This study further emphasizes regional climate differences and their role on the dynamics of boreal ecosystems, and also underlines the importance of free data access to facilitate the compilation and evaluation of massively replicated and updated dendroecological networks.
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| 12. |
- Kirdyanov, Alexander, et al.
(författare)
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Notes towards an optimal sampling strategy in dendroclimatology
- 2018
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Ingår i: Dendrochronologia. - : Elsevier BV. - 1125-7865 .- 1612-0051. ; 52, s. 162-166
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Though the extraction of increment cores is common practice in tree-ring research, there is no standard for the number of samples per tree, or trees per site needed to accurately describe the common growth pattern of a discrete population of trees over space and time. Tree-ring chronologies composed of living, subfossil and archaeological material often combine an uneven distribution of increment cores and disc samples. The effects of taking one or two cores per tree, or even the inclusion of multiple radii measurements from entire discs, on chronology development and quality remain unreported. Here, we present four new larch (Larix cajanderi Mayr) ring width chronologies from the same 20 trees in northeastern Siberia that have been independently developed using different combinations of core and disc samples. Our experiment reveals: i) sawing is much faster than coring, with the latter not always hitting the pith; ii) the disc-based chronology contains fewer locally absent rings, extends further back in time and exhibits more growth coherency; iii) although the sampling design has little impact on the overall chronology behaviour, lower frequency information is more robustly obtained from the disc measurements that also tend to reflect a slightly stronger temperature signal. In quantifying the influence of sampling strategy on the quality of tree-ring width chronologies, and their suitability for climate reconstructions, this study provides useful insights for optimizing fieldwork campaigns, as well as for developing composite chronologies from different wood sources.
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| 13. |
- Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier, et al.
(författare)
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Ranking of tree-ring based hydroclimate reconstructions of the past millennium
- 2020
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Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 230
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- © 2019 The Authors To place recent hydroclimate changes, including drought occurrences, in a long-term historical context, tree-ring records serve as an important natural archive. Here, we evaluate 46 millennium-long tree-ring based hydroclimate reconstructions for their Data Homogeneity, Sample Replication, Growth Coherence, Chronology Development, and Climate Signal based on criteria published by Esper et al. (2016) to assess tree-ring based temperature reconstructions. The compilation of 46 individually calibrated site reconstructions includes 37 different tree species and stem from North America (n = 29), Asia (n = 10); Europe (n = 5), northern Africa (n = 1) and southern South America (n = 1). For each criterion, the individual reconstructions were ranked in four groups, and results showed that no reconstruction scores highest or lowest for all analyzed parameters. We find no geographical differences in the overall ranking, but reconstructions from arid and semi-arid environments tend to score highest. A strong and stable hydroclimate signal is found to be of greater importance than a long calibration period. The most challenging trade-off identified is between high continuous sample replications, as well as a well-mixed age class distribution over time, and a good internal growth coherence. Unlike temperature reconstructions, a high proportion of the hydroclimate reconstructions are produced using individual series detrending methods removing centennial-scale variability. By providing a quantitative and objective evaluation of all available tree-ring based hydroclimate reconstructions we hope to boost future improvements in the development of such records and provide practical guidance to secondary users of these reconstructions.
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