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- Falk, Johan, et al.
(författare)
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Exponential Roadmap: Scaling 36 Solutions to Halve Emissions by 2030
- 2019
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The 2019 Exponential Roadmap focuses on moving from incremental to exponential climate action in the next decade. It presents 36 economically- viable solutions to cut global greenhouse gas emissions 50% by 2030 and the strategies to scale this transformation. The roadmap is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s goal to keep global average temperature “well below 2°C” and aiming for 1.5°C above pre- industrial levels. The 2019 roadmap is the second in the series. Each new roadmap updates solutions that have proven potential to scale and charts progress towards exponential scaling. The roadmap, based on the carbon law (see box) is a collaboration between academia, business and civil society. The roadmap is complemented with a high-ambition narrative, Meeting the 1.5°C Ambition, that presents the case why holding global average temperature increase to just 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is important. Since the first roadmap, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published its special report on 1.5°C. The report concluded that the economic and humanitarian risks of a 2°C world are significantly higher than 1.5°C. The remaining emissions budget for 1.5°C is small, and will be exceeded within ten to fifteen years at current emission rates. The window of feasibility is closing rapidly. The global economic benefit of a low-carbon future is estimated at US$26 trillion by 2030 compared with staying on the current high-carbon pathway. The scale of transformation – halving emissions by 2030 – is unprecedented but the speed is not. Some cities and companies can transform significantly faster. Developed nations with significant historic emissions have a responsibility to reduce emissions faster. Greenhouse gas emissions, and the solutions to reduce them, are grouped by six sectors: energy, industry, transport, buildings, food consumption, nature-based solutions (sources and sinks). Meeting the 1.5°C goal means implementing solutions in parallel across all sectors. The solutions must scale exponentially. The roadmap identifies four levers required to scale the transformation as well as necessary actions for each: policy, climate leadership and movements, finance and exponential technology. Implementation must be fair and just or risk deep resistance.
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| 2. |
- Warszawski, Lila, et al.
(författare)
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All options, not silver bullets, needed to limit global warming to 1.5 °C : a scenario appraisal
- 2021
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 16:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate science provides strong evidence of the necessity of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, in line with the Paris Climate Agreement. The IPCC 1.5 °C special report (SR1.5) presents 414 emissions scenarios modelled for the report, of which around 50 are classified as '1.5 °C scenarios', with no or low temperature overshoot. These emission scenarios differ in their reliance on individual mitigation levers, including reduction of global energy demand, decarbonisation of energy production, development of land-management systems, and the pace and scale of deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. The reliance of 1.5 °C scenarios on these levers needs to be critically assessed in light of the potentials of the relevant technologies and roll-out plans. We use a set of five parameters to bundle and characterise the mitigation levers employed in the SR1.5 1.5 °C scenarios. For each of these levers, we draw on the literature to define 'medium' and 'high' upper bounds that delineate between their 'reasonable', 'challenging' and 'speculative' use by mid century. We do not find any 1.5 °C scenarios that stay within all medium upper bounds on the five mitigation levers. Scenarios most frequently 'over use' CDR with geological storage as a mitigation lever, whilst reductions of energy demand and carbon intensity of energy production are 'over used' less frequently. If we allow mitigation levers to be employed up to our high upper bounds, we are left with 22 of the SR1.5 1.5 °C scenarios with no or low overshoot. The scenarios that fulfil these criteria are characterised by greater coverage of the available mitigation levers than those scenarios that exceed at least one of the high upper bounds. When excluding the two scenarios that exceed the SR1.5 carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, this subset of 1.5 °C scenarios shows a range of 15–22 Gt CO2 (16–22 Gt CO2 interquartile range) for emissions in 2030. For the year of reaching net zero CO2 emissions the range is 2039–2061 (2049–2057 interquartile range).
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