| 1. |
- Kovalchik, Stephanie A, et al.
(författare)
-
Absolute Risk Prediction of Second Primary Thyroid Cancer Among 5-Year Survivors of Childhood Cancer.
- 2012
-
Ingår i: Journal of Clinical Oncology. - 1527-7755.
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- PURPOSEWe developed three absolute risk models for second primary thyroid cancer to assist with long-term clinical monitoring of childhood cancer survivors. PATIENTS AND METHODSWe used data from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS) and two nested case-control studies (Nordic CCSS; Late Effects Study Group). Model M1 included self-reported risk factors, model M2 added basic radiation and chemotherapy treatment information abstracted from medical records, and model M3 refined M2 by incorporating reconstructed radiation absorbed dose to the thyroid. All models were validated in an independent cohort of French childhood cancer survivors.ResultsM1 included birth year, initial cancer type, age at diagnosis, sex, and past thyroid nodule diagnosis. M2 added radiation (yes/no), radiation to the neck (yes/no), and alkylating agent (yes/no). Past thyroid nodule was consistently the strongest risk factor (M1 relative risk [RR ], 10.8; M2 RR, 6.8; M3 RR, 8.2). In the validation cohort, 20-year absolute risk predictions for second primary thyroid cancer ranged from 0.04% to 7.4% for M2. Expected events agreed well with observed events for each model, indicating good calibration. All models had good discriminatory ability (M1 area under the receiver operating characteristics curve [AUC ], 0.71; 95% CI, 0.64 to 0.77; M2 AUC, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.73 to 0.86; M3 AUC, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.69 to 0.82). CONCLUSIONWe developed and validated three absolute risk models for second primary thyroid cancer. Model M2, with basic prior treatment information, could be useful for monitoring thyroid cancer risk in childhood cancer survivors.
|
|
| 2. |
- Turesson, Ingemar, et al.
(författare)
-
Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance and risk of lymphoid and myeloid malignancies: 728 cases followed up to 30 years in Sweden.
- 2014
-
Ingår i: Blood. - : American Society of Hematology. - 1528-0020 .- 0006-4971. ; 123:3, s. 338-345
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In 728 Swedish cases of monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS), followed up to 30 years (median 10 years), we estimated the cumulative risk of hematologic disorders originating from lymphoid and myeloid lineages. Using Cox regression models, we examined associations of demographic and laboratory factors with progression and determined the discriminatory power of three prediction models for progression. Eighty-four MGUS cases developed a lymphoid disorder, representing a cumulative risk of 15.4%. Multiple myeloma (MM) occurred in 53 patients and the 30-year cumulative risk was 10.6%; an approximate 0.5% annual risk. Three factors were significantly associated with progression: abnormal FLC-ratio (<0.26 or >1.65), M-protein concentration ≥1.5g/dL ( > or = 1,5 g/dL), and reduction of 1 or 2 non-involved immunoglobulin isotype levels (immunoparesis). A prediction model with separate effects for these three factors and the M-protein isotype had higher discriminatory power than other models, though the differences were not statistically significant. The 30-year cumulative risk for myeloid malignancies was <2%. Our study confirms that abnormal FLC-ratio and M-protein concentration >1.5g/dL, factors previously considered by Mayo Clinic researchers, are predictors for MM progression and suggests that separate consideration of immunoparesis and the Mayo Clinic risk factors could improve identification of MGUS patients at high risk for progression.
|
|
