| 1. |
- Andersson, Camilla, 1979-
(författare)
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Air Pollution Dependency on Climate Variability and Source Region : Past, Current and Future Air Pollution Scenarios over Europe
- 2009
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The main objectives of this thesis were to investigate the dependency of European air pollution on climate variability and emission source region. Calculations with a chemistry transport model (CTM) were conducted to investigate the influence of climate variability. The CTM was forced by both simulated past (a re-analysis spanning 1958-2001) and future (a climate simulation spanning 1961-2100) meteorology keeping anthropogenic emissions constant. To investigate the influence of emission source region emissions were varied in western, eastern and northern Europe in seven-year (1997-2003) simulations. The main conclusions in this thesis are § There is variability in air pollution due to climate variability on time scales from year to year to decades and long-term trends. Hence, what is measured now will not be valid in a decade, or even next year. § Interannual variability in air pollution due to climate variability is greater than interannual variability in anthropogenic emissions. § The extreme conditions in 2003, resulting in elevated surface O3 concentrations, could be an indication on what we can expect in the future. § The trend in surface O3 over the past due to climate change is similar to the projected trend due to future climate change: increasing in south-western and central Europe and decreasing in north-eastern Europe. § Changes in isoprene emissions and dry deposition dependency on soil moisture are of importance for changes in surface O3 in central and southern Europe. It is vital to include these processes, especially the latter in climate change effect studies of surface O3. § This work indicates that it is of greater importance for health benefits of the European population to reduce primary PM emissions than precursors of secondary inorganic aerosol under the assumption of higher relative risk for primary PM. This is especially the case in western Europe.
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| 2. |
- Andersson, Camilla, 1979-, et al.
(författare)
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Inter-annual variations of ozone and nitrogen dioxide over Europe during 1958-2003 simulated with a regional CTM
- 2007
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Ingår i: Water, Air and Soil Pollution. - Netherlands : Springer. - 0049-6979 .- 1573-2932 .- 1567-7230 .- 1573-2940. ; 7, s. 15-23
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Abstract Inter-annual variability of surface ozone(O3) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) over Europe hasbeen studied over the period 1958-2003 using athree-dimensional Chemistry-Transport Model coupledto meteorological data from the ERA40 data setproduced at the European Centre of Medium-rangeWeather Forecasts (ECMWF). Emissions and boundaryconditions were kept at present levels throughoutthe simulation period. It was found that the annualmean NO2 concentration varies between ±50% andthe summer mean O3 concentration varies between-10 and +20 percent (%) compared to the 46-yearaverage over the model domain. There is alsovariation in ozone and NO2 over longer time scales.The last 22 years display high concentrations ofozone in central and south-western Europe and lowconcentrations in north-eastern Europe. The first22 years display very high concentrations of NO2over the North Sea. There is indication of trends inozone and nitrogen dioxide but this has to beinvestigated further. Such information is one factorthat should be taken into account when consideringfuture control strategies.
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| 3. |
- Andersson, Camilla, 1979-, et al.
(författare)
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Interannual variation and trends in air pollution over Europe due to climate variability during 1958–2001 simulated with a regional CTM coupled to the ERA40 reanalysis
- 2007
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Ingår i: Tellus. Series B, Chemical and physical meteorology. - Stockholm : Tellus. - 0280-6509 .- 1600-0889. ; 59, s. 77-98
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A three-dimensional Chemistry Transport Model was used to study the meteorologically induced interannual variability and trends in deposition of sulphur and nitrogen as well as concentrations of surface ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter (PM) and its constituents over Europe during 1958–2001. The model was coupled to the meteorological reanalysis ERA40, produced at the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts. Emissions and boundary conditions of chemical compounds and PM were kept constant at present levels. The average European interannual variation, due to meteorological variability, ranges from 3% for O3, 5%for NO2, 9% for PM, 6–9% for dry deposition, to about 20% for wet deposition of sulphur and nitrogen. For the period 1979–2001 the trend in ozone, due to climate variability is increasing in central and southwestern Europe and decreasing in northeastern Europe, the trend in NO2 is approximately opposite. The trend in PM is positive in eastern Europe. There are negative trends in wet deposition in southwestern and central Europe and positive trends in dry deposition overall. A bias in ERA40 precipitation could be partly responsible for the trends. The variation and trends need to be considered when interpreting measurements and designing measurement campaigns.
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| 4. |
- Gidhagen, Lars, 1951-
(författare)
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Emissions, dynamics and dispersion of particles in polluted air
- 2004
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The main objective of this thesis is to yield information on how atmospheric fine and ultrafine particles are dispersed in populated areas. Quantitative information on emissions, transport and removal is needed to assess the health risks of inhalable particles. Most effort is dedicated to describe, on the local and urban scales, the distribution of ultrafine particles (and thereby also total number concentrations) originating from traffic emissions. A minor part addresses the dispersion of toxic particles of industrial origin, dispersed over regional scales. The importance of aerosol dynamics for the distribution of ultrafine particles is assessed by coupling a three-dimensional dispersion model to a monodisperse aerosol model. Meteorological forcing, sometimes in a complex geometry, is simulated by a CFD model on the local scale and by a weather forecast model on the larger scales. The principal result of the study is that particle number concentrations can, at least for Swedish conditions, be simulated and quantitatively assessed in urban models in a similar way as particle mass or gaseous pollutants. The variability of the emissions and the removal effects of coagulation and dry deposition are investigated. Vehicle emissions of particle number vary with a factor of two depending on ambient temperature, with higher concentrations during cold conditions. Other important factors that determine particle emissions are fleet composition, vehicle speed (especially for gasoline-fueled cars) and the dilution rate in the microenvironment where emissions take place. Coagulation affects particle number concentrations in highly polluted environments like car tunnels or street canyons under low wind speed conditions, while it is of less importance in the urban background (reduced number concentrations of a few percent, as compared to completely inert particles). Dry deposition is effective over the road surface, due to the velocities and turbulence produced by moving vehicles. Dry deposition also has significant effects on the urban background concentrations, reducing average levels with up to 20-30%. Dry deposition is also shown to be an important mechanism to remove fine particulate mass on the regional scale. Simulated particle number concentrations, based on emission factors determined for the local vehicle fleet and influenced by aerosol dynamic processes, are evaluated against measured concentrations for three different traffic microenvironments and also for the entire Stockholm area. Regional dispersion of arsenic in PM10 is assessed and model results compared to measurements in Central and Northern Chile.
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
- Gidhagen, Lars, et al.
(författare)
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Simulation of NOx and ultrafine particles in a street canyon in Stockholm, Sweden
- 2004
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 1352-2310 .- 1873-2844. ; 38:14
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A computational fluid dynamic (CFD) model has been used to assess the concentrations of NOx and particle number in a street canyon in Stockholm with a high traffic volume. Comparisons of a simulated 11-week long time series of NOx with measurements (both sides of the street, urban background excluded) show good agreement, especially if emissions are distributed to be three times higher along the side of the street where the traffic is uphill, as compared to the downhill side. The simulation of number concentrations of inert particles indicates a similar asymmetry in emissions. A month-long measurement of particle size distribution (7–450 nm) at street level indicates that the ratio of nucleation size mode particle (7–20 nm) to total particle number (7–450 nm) is decreasing for increased particle surface area. Given the strong dominance of the locally generated particles over the urban background, this is interpreted as a local change in the size distribution. The results of a monodisperse aerosol dynamic model, coupled to the CFD model that simulates also the turbulence generated by vehicle movements, show that coagulation and deposition may reduce total particle inside the canyon with approximately 30% during low wind speeds. Most of the removal occurs shortly after emission, before the particles reach the leeward curb-side. Losses between the leeward curb-side and other locations in the street, e.g. roof levels, is estimated to be smaller, less than 10%. Coagulation is the dominating removal process under low wind speed conditions and deposition for higher wind speeds, the summed removal being smaller for high wind velocities. Deposition is enhanced over the road surface due to the velocities generated by vehicle movements. Although coagulation and deposition removal is most effective on the smallest ultrafine particles, this effect is not sufficient to explain the observed change in size distribution. It is suggested that also the formation of particles in the exhaust plumes is influenced by a larger particle surface area in the ambient air.
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| 7. |
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| 8. |
- Hansen, Karin, et al.
(författare)
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Base cation deposition to forest in Europe
- 2013
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Sammanfattning Deposition av baskatjoner utgör en betydande källa till baskatjonförrådet i skogsmark och är en viktig parameter för att kvantifiera kritisk belastning och överskridande, liksom för att prediktera återhämtning från försurning. På senare tid har baskatjonbalansen i skogsmark diskuterats allt mer, på grund av de ökade förlusterna av baskatjoner till följd av ökat uttag av avverkningsrester (grenar, toppar och stubbar) för att producera förnybar energi. Det är viktigt att kunna mäta eller beräkna baskatjondepositionen till skog med någorlunda hög noggrannhet. Under 1980- och 90-talen pågick mycket arbete för att förbättra uppskattningarna av baskatjondeposition till skogen. Därefter har insatserna på området varit mer begränsade. En workshop anordnades 21-22 november 2012, för att få en överblick över den senaste utvecklingen och framstegen inom området. I denna rapport summeras resultaten från workshopen. Vikten av att kombinera olika metoder för att mäta eller beräkna baskatjondepositionen betonades. Modellering av baskatjondeposition på Europanivå sågs som önskvärt och möjligt att genomföra, och en uppdelning mellan olika källor för att underlätta arbetet (antropogena källor, havssalt och andra naturliga källor) föreslogs. Fortsatt samarbete på Europanivå skulle vara fördelaktigt och bör främjas, och olika sätt för att få det till stånd diskuterades.
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Karlsson, Per Erik, et al.
(författare)
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En ekonomisk utvärdering av inverkan av marknära ozon på skog och jordbruksgrödor i Sverige baserat på ozonflux
- 2019
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet (IVL), SMHI och Göteborgs Universitet (GU) har på uppdrag av Naturvårdsverket genomfört en studie som syftar till att ekonomiskt värdera de positiva effekter som skulle uppstå för produktionen i skogs- och jordbruk i Sverige i avsaknad av exponering för antropogent orsakad bildning av ozon nära marken. Beräkningarna baserades på ozonexponering uttryckt som ozonflux (PODySPEC, Phytotoxic Ozone Dose for SPECific plants species) för åren 2014 - 2017. De trädslag som ingick i analysen var gran, tall, björk samt några ytterligare trädslag. De jordbruksgrödor som omfattades av analysen var vår- och höstvete, korn, vall och potatis. För jordbruksgrödor innefattade beräkningarna även året 2013. Beräkningarna genomfördes årsvis. Tidsaspekterna kring beräkningarna av ozoneffekter skiljer sig dock avsevärt mellan jordbruksgrödor respektive skog. När det gäller beräkningarna för jordbruksgrödor utfördes de fullt ut specifikt årsvis, både vad gäller ozonexponering och vad gäller statistik för skördeutbyte under rådande ozonexponering de olika åren. Vad gäller skog komplicerades beräkningarna av att avverkningen ett visst år inte är direkt kopplad till tillväxten samma år och därmed inte heller till ozonbelastningen samma år. Den skogliga statistiken som inhämtades förutsattes representera ett scenario med den begränsning av den skogliga tillväxten som nuvarande ozonbelastning medför. Baserat på dos-respons-relationer vad gäller inverkan av exponering för ozon i form av POD1SPEC beräknades hur stor den skogliga tillväxten skulle ha varit i avsaknad av exponering för ozon, allt annat lika. Differensen mellan dessa scenarion utgjorde ozonpåverkan utifrån dagens exponering för ozon. Beräkningarna för skog grundade sig på ett scenario för årlig tillväxt under nuvarande ozonbelastning för en 10-årsperiod (2010 – 2019), i kombination med fyra olika scenarier för beräkningar av hur mycket högre den skogliga tillväxten skulle ha varit i avsaknad av ozonbelastning, i sin tur baserat på hur ozonbelastningen såg ut under vardera av de fyra åren 2014 - 2017. Sammanfattning - Träd Ozonbelastningen för träd beräknades som länsvisa medelvärden, baserat på POD1SPEC för björk och gran. Dos-respons-relationer för inverkan av ozon på tillväxthastigheter och produktion, baserat på POD1SPEC, antogs utifrån den information som finns tillgänglig i den vetenskapliga litteraturen. För träd valdes att använda resultat för gran och björk från svenska experimentella studier med unga träd. För de skogliga beräkningarna gjordes ett grundläggande antagande, att en ökad tillväxthastighet långsiktigt resulterade i en proportionellt ökad avverkningshastighet. I avsaknad av inverkan av ozon på trädtillväxten beräknades att den årliga skogstillväxten skulle ha varit 7.2 Mm3sk (miljoner kubikmeter stamvolym ovan bark) högre, jämfört med dagens situation. Detta beräknades som ett medelvärde för de olika ozonbelastningarna 2014 - 2017, för Sverige som helhet och för alla trädslag. Detta utgjorde en ökad tillväxt på 7,1%. Som ett resultat av den högre tillväxten i avsaknad av ozon beräknades att den totala skogsavverkningen, inklusive gallring och slutavverkning, skulle ha varit 5,5 Mm3sk högre jämfört med idag, för Sverige som helhet och för alla trädslag, som ett medelvärde för de olika ozonbelastningarna 2014 - 2017. Detta utgjorde en ökad avverkning på 7,0 %. Procentuellt beräknades avverkningen öka mest i Götaland, eftersom den nuvarande ozonbelastningen är högst i denna landsdel. Upptaget av ozon till bladen vid en viss koncentration av ozon i luften beräknades bli större för lövträd, jämfört med barrträd. Dessutom visar relationerna för dos-respons på en mer negativ inverkan av upptaget ozon på tillväxten för lövträd jämfört med barrträd. Tillsammans gör detta att de beräknade effekterna av ozon på tillväxten blev avsevärt högre för lövträd, jämfört med barrträd. För Götaland beräknades att avverkningen av lövträd skulle kunna varit 22 – 24 % högre i avsaknad av ozonbelastning jämfört med dagens situation. Det årliga ekonomiska värdet av den ökade avverkningen som beräknades kunnat ske i avsaknad av ozonbelastning, som ett medelvärde för ozonbelastningen 2014 – 2017, uppgick till 942 MSEK per år för landet som helhet och för alla trädslag. Det samlade värdet var som högst för Götaland, 424 MSEK, medan det var avsevärt lägre för Svealand och Norrland. En jämförelse mellan trädslag för Sverige som helhet visade att det ekonomiska värdet var högst för granskog, följt av tallskog och därefter björk En jämförelse av olika scenarier för beräknat POD1SPEC, baserat på förekomsten av ozon för de olika åren 2014 – 2017, visade att det ekonomiska värdet blev högst baserat på den beräknade för ozonbelastningen 2014 och uppgick då till 1035 MSEK för hela landet och för alla trädslag. Det lägsta värdet var för ozonbelastningen som beräknades för året 2017, 891 MSEK. En analys på länsnivå visade att det högsta ekonomiska värdet för en ökad avverkning i avsaknad av ozonbelastning, som medelvärde 2014 – 2017 och samlat för alla trädslag, uppstod i Västra Götalands län, med 98 MSEK årligen. Lägst var värdet för Gotlands län, med 8 MSEK. Detta berodde till stor del på skillnaderna i den totala arealen produktiv skogsmark i de olika länen. Det högsta ekonomiska värdet för den ökade avverkningen per areal skog uppstod i Skåne, med ett värde 161 SEK ha-1 år-1, som ett medelvärde för alla trädslag. Värdet 942 MSEK per år för den beräknade ökade skogsavverkningen, i avsaknad av ozonbelastning, jämfört med dagens situation för landet som helhet och för alla trädslag, var något högre än i en tidigare studie (Karlsson m.fl., 2014) där motsvarande värde var 733 MSEK per år. Detta motsvarade et ökat värde på knappt 30 %. Sammanfattning - Jordbruksgrödor Ozonbelastningen för jordbruksgrödor beräknades, baserat på POD6SPEC för vete och potatis. Länsvisa medelvärden för POD6SPEC användes för beräkningarna för respektive år. Det sammanlagda, genomsnittliga ekonomiska värdet på det ökade skördeutfall som skulle ha uppstått i avsaknad av ozonpåverkan på jordbruksgrödor i Sverige uppskattades till 528 MSEK per år. De största ökade värdena gällde vete, särskilt höstvete, eftersom detta odlas i stor omfattning. Även de skattade värdena för korn var betydande, särskilt i Skåne. Geografiskt sett var Skåne det län där skattningarna visade på störst ökning av ekonomiska värden för ökade skördeutfall, vilket berodde på en kombination av höga ozonhalter, omfattande jordbruk och ett klimat som är relativt gynnsamt för ozonupptag till växter. Generellt sett var de skattade effekterna av ozon på jordbruksgrödor betydligt mindre i norra jämfört med södra Sverige. Värdet 528 MSEK per år från jordbruksgrödor var avsevärt högre än i en tidigare studie (Karlsson m.fl., 2014) där motsvarande siffra var 180 MSEK per år. Skillnaden berodde troligen främst på att exponeringsmåttet AOT40 användes i den tidigare studien, medan det fysiologiskt mer relevanta ozonexponeringsmåttet POD användes i föreliggande rapport. De i denna studie beräknade skördeförlusterna orsakade av nuvarande ozonbelastning i % för vete låg något lägre än den som uppskattades som genomsnitt för Europa, vilket troligen främst kan förklaras av lägre ozonhalter i Nordeuropa jämfört med Europa som genomsnitt. Skördeförlusterna i % för vete låg obetydligt högre än de som globalt uppskattats för vete genom att experimentellt jämföra veteskörden i filtrerad (i det närmaste utan ozon) och ofiltrerad (med dagens ozonhalter) luft.
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| 11. |
- Karlsson, Per Erik, 1957, et al.
(författare)
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Marknära ozon - ett växande problem i Arktis?
- 2015
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Ingår i: Luft & Miljö Arktis 2015. - Stockholm : Naturvårdsverket. - 9789162012977 ; , s. 21-26
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 12. |
- Karlsson, Per Erik, et al.
(författare)
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Past, present and future concentrations of ground-level ozone and potential impacts on ecosystems and human health in northern Europe
- 2017
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Ingår i: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 0048-9697. ; 576, s. 22-35
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This reviewsummarizes newinformation on the current status of ground-level ozone in Europe north of the Alps. There has been a re-distribution in the hourly ozone concentrations in northern Europe during 1990–2015. The highest concentrations during summer daytime hours have decreased while the summer night-time and winter day- and night-time concentrations have increased. The yearly maximum 8-h mean concentrations ([O3]8h,max), a metric used to assess ozone impacts on human health, have decreased significantly during 1990–2015 at four out of eight studied sites in Fennoscandia and northern UK. Also the annual number of days when the yearly [O3]8h,max exceeded the EU Environmental Quality Standard (EQS) target value of 60 ppb has decreased. In contrast, the number of days per year when the yearly [O3]8h,max exceeded 35 ppb has increased significantly at two sites, while it decreased at one far northern site. [O3]8h,max is predicted not to exceed 60 ppb in northern UK and Fennoscandia after 2020. However, theWHO EQS target value of 50 ppb will still be exceeded. The AOT40 May– July and AOT40 April–September metrics, used for the protection of vegetation, have decreased significantly at three and four sites, respectively. The EQS for the protection of forests, AOT40 April–September 5000 ppb h, is projected to no longer be exceeded for most of northern Europe sometime before the time period 2040–2059. However, if the EQS is based on Phytotoxic Ozone Dose (POD), POD1, it may still be exceeded by 2050. The increasing trend for low and medium range ozone concentrations in combination with a decrease in high concentrations indicate that a new control strategy, with a larger geographical scale than Europe and including methane, is needed for ozone abatement in northern Europe.
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| 13. |
- Karlsson, Per Erik, et al.
(författare)
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The vulnerability of northern European vegetation to ozone damage in a changing climate An assessment based on current knowledge
- 2021
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The potential vulnerability of vegetation at northern latitudes to ozone damage was assessed based on current knowledge with regard to air ozone concentrations and leaf ozone uptake as well as to plant traits affecting ozone tolerance. The focus was on the northern European arctic, alpine and northern boreal vegetation zones, with a special focus on high-altitude vegetation. In particular, we analysed if there are increasing risks for ozone impacts on northern vegetation due to high spring ozone concentrations in relation to climate change induced shifts such as e.g. an earlier start of the growing season. The ozone concentrations in these regions are characterized by the influence of a combination of conditions caused by high latitudes and high altitudes. Ozone concentrations increase with altitude and the difference in ozone concentrations between day and night are smaller at high-altitude and high-latitude sites. Summer periods with long daylight conditions potentially promote the leaf ozone uptake through the open stomata. The aims of this report were: • To assess the current state of knowledge regarding the potential vulnerability of far northern vegetation to ozone damage, today and in the future • To provide advice for policy implications regarding necessary ozone precursor emission abatement • To provide advice for future research and monitoring of ozone impacts on the vegetation at northern latitudes Ongoing environmental changes affecting far northern latitude ecosystems were reviewed. Current and novel methods were described for how to estimate the time of year during which the ozone exposure for vegetation should be accumulated. Time trends for ozone concentrations at northern latitudes were analysed. Ozone episodes with high concentrations at far northern latitudes were described. Source attributions of northern ozone concentrations were analysed. Environmental conditions at far northern latitudes that might be important for ozone damage were evaluated. Plant traits that can influence the ozone vulnerability were discussed. Current experimental results for ozone injury on northern plant species were evaluated. Future scenarios for ozone impact on northern vegetation were discussed. Some important results from the analyses are described below. At high altitudes and high latitudes, the ozone concentrations are relatively similar during day- and night-time. Furthermore, at high latitudes, the long daylight duration during the summer has the potential to increase the duration of the daily period with plant gas exchange and leaf ozone uptake. Therefore, the absorption of ozone through the stomata may potentially be higher at northern latitudes. However, measurements of light intensity and quality at northern sites in combination with a simple calculation example illustrated that this probably was not the case, since the potential added ozone uptake in the early morning and late evening at northern sites may be cancelled out by a lower ozone uptake in the middle of the day, as compared to southern sites. Both data on budburst and data on ecosystem CO2 exchange as well as meteorological observations show that there has been a development towards an earlier start of the growing season during the year, with approximately 0.5 – 1 day per year. Thus, there is clear evidence for an earlier start of the growing season, which is likely to continue. However, the timing of the spring ozone maximum is also shifted towards earlier in the year. There is presently no evidence for an increasing overlap between the growing season and the ozone peak. Despite this, there is a potential for increased ozone uptake to vegetation in spring due to the earlier growing start of vegetation and increased uptake of ozone to vegetation in May. The impact of this on the accumulated phytotoxic ozone dose for northern vegetation needs to be investigated further. The overall conclusions about the present and near future ozone vulnerability of northern vegetation were: • There remain uncertainties regarding to what extent northern vegetation is affected by ozone exposure. • According to current knowledge, we could not find evidence that expected changes in ozone concentrations and climate would make the northern arctic, alpine and subalpine vegetation substantially more vulnerable to ozone than other types of European vegetation. • The risk of significant and lasting negative impact of the current exposure to ozone on northern boreal forests is most likely not greater than for boreonemoral and nemoral forests in southern Fennoscandia. • However, peak ozone concentrations occurring in spring and early summer may affect vegetation at northern latitudes in Fennoscandia since the start of the growing season in the future may occur earlier during the year. The policy implications that can be derived from these conclusions were: • The current state of knowledge implies that ecosystems in the far north are not more susceptible to ozone than vegetation in other parts of Europe. Hence, we cannot advocate for a stronger reduction of ozone precursors emissions based exclusively on the ozone sensitivity of vegetation in the far north. • Policies designed to reduce emissions of ozone precursors to protect vegetation in other parts of Europe as well as in the entire northern hemisphere are likely to suffice to protect vegetation in northern Fennoscandia. There are important remaining knowledge gaps. Our conclusions are based on important, but limited observations. Experimental evidence from investigations specifically designed to study ozone sensitivity of high-altitude vegetation in northern Europe are to a large extent lacking. It is recommended that further experimental research is undertaken to directly compare the ozone sensitivity of plants of high-latitude/high-altitude origin with that of plants (species, genotypes) representative of regions of the southern part of the Nordic region. This research should include the characteristics of the high-latitude climate and other conditions. A specific research question is if the new ozone critical levels for European vegetation based on PODYSPEC (Mapping Manual, 2017) are correct, both regarding calculation methodology as well as impact assessments? In particular, there is a lack of information about the degree of stomata closure during nights in high-latitude area plants. This is important for the modelling of ozone uptake (dry deposition) in these areas and requires coordinated measurement campaigns in close cooperation with modelers. Further research questions may be related to the future development of the northern regions – e.g. oil and gas extraction including flaring, shipping, more tourism and climate change – how will that affect the ozone exposure of in the northern vegetation? Do future ozone precursor emission scenarios describe this correctly? Will warm and dry summers like 2018 become more frequent in connection with climate change, and how will this affect ozone impacts on vegetation? There are currently very few, long term ozone monitoring stations in the arctic and alpine vegetation zones, in particular at high altitudes. Given the expected increase in anthropogenic activities in these areas in combination with climate change, it is strongly recommended to increase the number of high-altitude ozone monitoring sites in these regions.
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| 14. |
- Karlsson, Per Erik, 1957, et al.
(författare)
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Utvecklingen vad gäller preciseringar för marknära ozon inför den fördjupade utvärderingen av miljömålet Frisk Luft
- 2014
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Utvecklingen vad gäller halterna av marknära ozon i norra Europa under de senaste drygt tjugo åren karakteriseras av att de högsta halterna har minskat medan de lägsta och medelhöga halterna har ökat. Stigande hemisfäriska bakgrundshalter förklarar troligen de stigande låga till måttliga ozonhalterna. Årsmaximum av glidande 8 timmars ozonmedelhalt minskar på ett statistiskt säkerställt sätt i södra Sverige, men förändras ej i norra Sverige. Modellberäkningar såväl som trender beräknade från observationer tyder dock på att målvärdet för det maximala 8-timmarsmedelvärdet av ozonhalten, som används för att skydda människors hälsa inom miljökvalitetsmålet Frisk Luft, fortsatt kommer att överskridas år 2050. Det finns ingen statistiskt säkerställd förändring över tid vad gäller inverkan på växtligheten baserat på AOT40. AOT40 överskrider målvärdet som gäller preciseringen inom Frisk Luft, i södra men inte i norra Sverige. Om de Europeiska utsläppen av ozonbildande ämnen till år 2050 minskar i enlighet med framtida utsläppsscenarier kommer dock målvärdet till skydd för växtligheten baserat på AOT40 inte längre överskridas i Sverige och inte heller i stora delar av norra Europa. Dessa scenarie-beräkningar utgår dock från att de hemisfäriska bakgrundhalterna inte ändras nämnvärt. Ozonexponeringen av växtligheten beräknat som ozonflux kommer i södra Sverige dock inte att underskrida det målvärde som används inom LRTAP-konventionen till år 2050.
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| 15. |
- Klingberg, Jenny, 1978, et al.
(författare)
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Declining ozone exposure of European vegetation under climate change and reduced precursor emissions
- 2014
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Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1726-4170 .- 1726-4189. ; 11, s. 5269-5283
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The impacts of changes in ozone precursor emissions as well as climate change on the future ozone exposure of the vegetation in Europe were investigated. The ozone exposure is expressed as AOT40 (Accumulated exposure Over a Threshold of 40 ppbO3) as well as PODY (Phytotoxic Ozone Dose above a threshold Y). A new method is suggested to express how the length of the period during the year when coniferous and evergreen trees are sensitive to ozone might be affected by climate change. Ozone precursor emission changes from the RCP4.5 scenario were combined with climate simulations based on the IPCC SRES A1B scenario and used as input to the Eulerian Chemistry Transport Model MATCH from which projections of ozone concentrations were derived. The ozone exposure of vegetation over Europe expressed as AOT40 was projected to be substantially reduced between the periods 1990–2009 and 2040–2059 to levels which are well below critical levels used for vegetation in the EU directive 2008/50/EC as well as for crops and forests used in the LRTAP convention, despite that the future climate resulted in prolonged yearly ozone sensitive periods. The reduction in AOT40 was mainly driven by the emission reductions, not changes in the climate. For the toxicologically more relevant POD1 index the projected reductions were smaller, but still significant. The values for POD1 for the time period 2040–2059 were not projected to decrease to levels which are below critical levels for forest trees, represented by Norway spruce. This study shows that substantial reductions of ozone precursor emissions have the potential to strongly reduce the future risk for ozone effects on the European vegetation, even if concurrent climate change promotes ozone formation.
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| 16. |
- Langner, Joakim, et al.
(författare)
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Atmospheric input of nitrogen to the Baltic Sea basin : present situation, variability due to meteorology and impact of climate change
- 2009
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Ingår i: Boreal environment research. - 1239-6095 .- 1797-2469. ; 14, s. 226-237
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present estimates of the present and future deposition of atmospheric nitrogen into the Baltic Sea made using the Eulerian chemical transport model MATCH, and compare these with earlier model estimates. The average total nitrogen deposition for periods of five to ten years from 1992 to 2001 was estimated to be in the range of 261–300 Gg N yr–1.The deposition across the whole catchment area for 2001 was estimated to be 1.55–1.73 Tg N yr–1. Inter-annual variability of nitrogen deposition into the Baltic Sea was calculated to be in the range of 5.1%–8.0%. Investigating one climate change scenario using emissions for year 2000 indicated a rather small impact on total deposition of nitrogen due to climate change, i.e. increase of total nitrogen deposition by ~5% by the end of the 21st century as compared with present conditions. The combined effect of climate change and future changes in anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen to the atmosphere remains an open question. Additional climate change scenarios using different combinations of global and regional climate models and greenhouse gas emission scenarios need to be explored.
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| 17. |
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| 18. |
- Lewinschal, Anna, et al.
(författare)
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Local and remote temperature response of regional SO2 emissions
- 2019
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 19:4, s. 2385-2403
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Short-lived anthropogenic climate forcers (SLCFs), such as sulfate aerosols, affect both climate and air quality. Despite being short-lived, these forcers do not affect temperatures only locally; regions far away from the emission sources are also affected. Climate metrics are often used in a policy context to compare the climate impact of different anthropogenic forcing agents. These metrics typically relate a forcing change in a certain region with a temperature change in another region and thus often require a separate model to convert emission changes to radiative forcing (RF) changes. In this study, we used a coupled Earth system model, NorESM (Norwegian Earth System Model), to calculate emission-to-temperature-response metrics for sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission changes in four different policy-relevant regions: Europe (EU), North America (NA), East Asia (EA) and South Asia (SA). We first increased the SO2 emissions in each individual region by an amount giving approximately the same global average radiative forcing change (-0.45 Wm(-2)). The global mean temperature change per unit sulfur emission compared to the control experiment was independent of emission region and equal to similar to 0.006 K(TgSyr(-1))(-1). On a regional scale, the Arctic showed the largest temperature response in all experiments. The second largest temperature change occurred in the region of the imposed emission increase, except when South Asian emissions were changed; in this experiment, the temperature response was approximately the same in South Asia and East Asia. We also examined the non-linearity of the temperature response by removing all anthropogenic SO2 emissions over Europe in one experiment. In this case, the temperature response (both global and regional) was twice that in the corresponding experiment with a European emission increase. This non-linearity in the temperature response is one of many uncertainties associated with the use of simplified climate metrics.
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| 19. |
- Meier, H. E.Markus, et al.
(författare)
-
Overview : The Baltic Earth Assessment Reports (BEAR)
- 2023
-
Ingår i: Earth System Dynamics. - 2190-4979. ; 14:2, s. 519-531
-
Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Baltic Earth is an independent research network of scientists from all Baltic Sea countries that promotes regional Earth system research. Within the framework of this network, the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports (BEARs) were produced in the period 2019-2022. These are a collection of 10 review articles summarising current knowledge on the environmental and climatic state of the Earth system in the Baltic Sea region and its changes in the past (palaeoclimate), present (historical period with instrumental observations) and prospective future (until 2100) caused by natural variability, climate change and other human activities. The division of topics among articles follows the grand challenges and selected themes of the Baltic Earth Science Plan, such as the regional water, biogeochemical and carbon cycles; extremes and natural hazards; sea-level dynamics and coastal erosion; marine ecosystems; coupled Earth system models; scenario simulations for the regional atmosphere and the Baltic Sea; and climate change and impacts of human use. Each review article contains an introduction, the current state of knowledge, knowledge gaps, conclusions and key messages; the latter are the bases on which recommendations for future research are made. Based on the BEARs, Baltic Earth has published an information leaflet on climate change in the Baltic Sea as part of its outreach work, which has been published in two languages so far, and organised conferences and workshops for stakeholders, in collaboration with the Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission (Helsinki Commission, HELCOM).
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| 20. |
- Moldanova, Jana, et al.
(författare)
-
Optimisation of flight routes for reduced climate impact (OP-FLYKLIM)
- 2022
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The OP-FLYKLIM project investigated the potential to reduce the climate impact of aviation through climate optimization of flight routes to reduce the high-altitude effects of aviation with a focus on climate forcing from contrails and contrail cirrus under Scandinavian conditions. We have developed a calculation methodology where areas with potential to form persistent contrails are identified. The duration and climate forcing of contrails and contrail cirrus in these areas are calculated using data from SMHI's meteorological forecast model. Information on the position and climate forcing potential of these areas has been used to quantify climate forcing of flights on selected routes over a period of several months, and to test optimization of route planning for reduced climate effect with the flight planning system used by the airline Novair.Climate forcing from contrails and contrail cirrus during the flight calculated with the OP-FLYKLIM methodology is compared with calculations of climate forcing from the CO2 emitted from combustion of the jet fuel. This enables a direct comparison of the climate benefit of avoidance of contrail formation with its fuel penalty. In the future this method could be deployed in flight planning systems to enable climate optimization. The method can also be used in cost-benefit analyses of climate-optimized flight planning.We have also investigated several issues that are important for route optimization in general and for correct assessment of whether persistent contrails occur. Meteorological models of good quality in terms of forecasts of winds, temperature and humidity at flight altitude is of great importance both for ordinary route planning and for climate optimization. In OP-FLYKLIM, SMHI has tested streaming data from aircraft (so-called Mode-S EHS data) through air traffic control radars and local data receivers directly to their operational forecast model, which showed improved quality of forecasts.A persistent contrail occurs only if the humidity in the area of the flight is supersaturated relative to ice but is not already containing clouds.In the project, we have thus investigated the distribution of ice-saturated areas across Scandinavia as an average over several years using data from the ECMWF global numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. The results show a quite high potential for the formation of persistent contrails and thus for high-altitude effects in the area. Comparison to published data on the frequency of occurrence of ice supersaturated layers over Sweden and Europe indicate that observations and model data are broadly consistent. However, when comparing to observed relative humidity with respect to ice (RHI) from radiosondes directly it becomes clear that both the ECMWF model and the MetCoOp model used by SMHI for short range forecasts underestimate RHI near the tropopause, where most flights take place.As an additional means to evaluate the performance of NWP models with respect to ice supersaturation SMHI initiated observations of contrails by their climate observers. The observations were then matched against flights in the area and RHI calculated by the SMHI forecast model to determine if observations of persistent contrails also corresponded to ice supersaturation in the model. In agreement with the evaluation against radiosondes it was found that the NWP model underestimated RHI in connection with observed contrails.A correct calculation of fuel consumption and emissions during the flight is a prerequisite both for calculating its high-altitude effects and for monitoring of aviation emissions by national and international authorities. In OP-FLYKLIM the fuel consumption calculated with FOI3 methodology, used for the Swedish reporting of the national emissions from aviation to the UNFCCC and other international reporting obligations, has been compared with true fuel consumption obtained from data from the flight data recorder (FDR data) onboard aircraft on several routes. Comparison showed differences below 10% that could be explained by differences between route plans and type of aircraft in the FDR data and the FOI calculation, respectively.
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| 21. |
- Moldanova, Jana, et al.
(författare)
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Playing field for bio-jet fuels : Overview, intercomparison and verification
- 2021
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- What emissions and what climate impact does today's aviation have? It is important to create a consensus around this in order to be able to both compare the effects of different fuels and other mitigation measures and to relate the impact of aviation to e.g., other modes of transport. Emissions from aviation are inventoried and reported today at several different levels. Currently the main driver of CO2 emission inventories are regulations targeting emissions of greenhouse gas emissions. This report provides a brief overview of the methods and data used, which stem from various regulations and initiatives. A number of emission calculators is driven by the demand for data to report climate impact from air travel and freight transport and includes emission or climate calculators that focus on emissions of CO2 or CO2 equivalents assigned to a passenger or to volume or mass of cargo on a given route or nominal distance. There is a number of such calculators that use different emission factors, flight parameters, aircraft occupancy and contributions from high-altitude impacts, and thus generate different results. Examples are those of ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization, 2019), NTM (Network for Transport Measures, 2019), IATA (International Air Transport Association, 2019), Atmosfair (Atmosfair, 2019) or Flight Emission Map (Flight Emission Map, 2019). A survey of data and assumptions that form the basis for aviation greenhouse gas emissions and climate calculators and a validation of these by means of data on reported fuel consumption during flights was carried out in the project. For most of the calculators there is a good agreement with the fuel consumption data when the variability of the fuel consumption due to different aircraft types, occupancy, etc., is taken into the account. Three calculators show substantially higher emissions and an analysis indicates that the reason is that they are using obsolete emission factors. The biggest difference between calculators arise from the calculation of CO2 equivalents in which case all use radiation forcing index (RFI) as a measure. The study also included a comparison of SMHI's air emission model with fuel consumption data.The high-altitude effects of SLCP are crucial in minimizing the climate impact of aviation – for combustion engines these effects will remain even with use of fossil-free fuel. The first important questions associated with the high-altitude effects are their quantification and reduction of uncertainties of the climate impact of the SLCP. RFI used by many climate calculators is a blunt tool if the aim is to target the high-altitude effects as such, as it is related solely to CO2 emissions and the relation to the SLCP radiative forcing is through impact of the historic emissions of aviation up to the date for which the FI is calculated. More appropriate are forward looking metrics considering forcing from actual SLCP species emitted during the flight as global warming potential (GWP) or global temperature potential (GTP). The most important climate forcing components are emissions of CO2 and formation of contrails and contrail cirrus. Sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) with high hydrogen and low aromatic content emits substantially less soot particles which reduces radiative forcing of the contrails. Model simulations of full implementation of SAF in the current aviation fleet would lead to 20-50 % reduction of RF from contrails and contrail cirrus. A combination of the use of SAF, engine technology with low emissions of soot and NOx and route climate optimisation has the potential to substantially reduce the high-altitude effect.
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| 22. |
- Orru, Hans, et al.
(författare)
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Impact of climate change on ozone-related mortality and morbidity in Europe
- 2013
-
Ingår i: European Respiratory Journal. - : European Respiratory Society (ERS). - 0903-1936 .- 1399-3003. ; 41:2, s. 285-294
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Ozone is a highly oxidative pollutant formed from precursors in the presence of sunlight, associated with respiratory morbidity and mortality. All else being equal, concentrations of ground-level ozone are expected to increase due to climate change.Ozone-related health impacts under a changing climate are projected using emission scenarios, models and epidemiological data. European ozone concentrations are modelled with MATCH-RCA3 (50×50 km). Projections from two climate models, ECHAM4 and HadCM3, are applied, under greenhouse gas emission scenarios A2 and A1B respectively. We apply a European-wide exposure-response function to gridded population data and country-specific baseline mortality and morbidity.Comparing the current situation (1990-2009) with the baseline period (1961-1990), the largest increase in ozone-associated mortality and morbidity due to climate change (4-5%) have occurred in Belgium, Ireland, Netherlands and UK. Comparing the baseline period and the future periods (2021-2050 and 2041-2060), much larger increase in ozone-related mortality and morbidity are projected for Belgium, France, Spain and Portugal with the impact being stronger using the climate projection from ECHAM4 (A2). However, in Nordic and Baltic countries the same magnitude of decrease is projected.The current study suggests that projected effects of climate change on ozone concentrations could differentially influence mortality and morbidity across Europe.
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| 23. |
- Reckermann, Markus, et al.
(författare)
-
BALTEX - an interdisciplinary research network for the Baltic Sea region
- 2011
-
Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 6:4
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BALTEX is an environmental research network dealing with the Earth system of the entire Baltic Sea drainage basin. Important elements include the water and energy cycle, climate variability and change, water management and extreme events, and related impacts on biogeochemical cycles. BALTEX was founded in 1993 as a GEWEX continental-scale experiment and is currently in its second 10 yr phase. Phase I (1993–2002) was primarily dedicated to hydrological, meteorological and oceanographic processes in the Baltic Sea drainage basin, hence mostly dealt with the physical aspects of the system. Scientific focus was on the hydrological cycle and the exchange of energy between the atmosphere, the Baltic Sea and the surface of its catchment. The BALTEX study area was hydrologically defined as the Baltic Sea drainage basin. The second 10 yr phase of BALTEX (Phase II: 2003–12) has strengthened regional climate research, water management issues, biogeochemical cycles and overarching efforts to reach out to stakeholders and decision makers, as well as to foster communication and education. Achievements of BALTEX Phase II have been the establishment of an assessment report of regional climate change and its impacts on the Baltic Sea basin (from hydrological to biological and socio-economic), the further development of regional physical climate models and the integration of biogeochemical and ecosystem models. BALTEX features a strong infrastructure, with an international secretariat and a publication series, and organizes various workshops and conferences. This article gives an overview of the BALTEX programme, with an emphasis on Phase II, with some examples from BALTEX-related research.
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| 24. |
- Rummukainen, Markku, et al.
(författare)
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Uppdatering av den vetenskapliga grunden för klimatarbetet. En översyn av naturvetenskapliga aspekter
- 2011
-
Rapport (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
- Sammanfattning Det naturvetenskapliga kunskapsläget om klimatförändringarna förbättrats ständigt genom forskningen om klimatsystemet, klimatpåverkan, klimatets variationer och förändringar samt klimateffekter. Kunskapsläget är väletablerat när det gäller den grundläggande fysiken bakom växthuseffekten, liksom att genomsnittstemperaturen vid jordytan stigit de senaste femtio åren. Det är också mycket sannolikt att det mesta av den observerade uppvärmningen beror på mänsklig klimatpåverkan. Samtidigt finns det betydande osäkerheter när det gäller konsekvenserna av klimatförändringarna samt hur mycket utsläppen behöver minska för att man ska nå ett givet klimatmål. Värdet på klimatkänsligheten är den viktigaste faktorn för beräkningar av hur mycket växthusgaser vi kan släppa ut, givet ett visst temperaturmål. Forskningen visar att det behövs stora och snabba utsläppsminskningar för att uppnå tvågradersmålet. För att nå ett lägre temperaturmål, till exempel ett 1,5-gradersmål, är de nödvändiga utsläppsminskningarna än mer omfattande. - För att nå tvågradersmålet med en sannolikhet runt 70 % krävs uppskattningsvis att de globala växthusgasutsläppen minskar i storleksordningen 50‒60 % från år 2000 till 2050, och minskar med nära 100 % till 2100. - För att nå ett 1,5-gradersmål med en sannolikhet runt 70 % krävs globala nollutsläpp redan runt år 2050. - För att nå ett 1,5-gradersmål med en sannolikhet runt 50 % krävs uppskattningsvis att de globala växthusgasutsläppen minskar i storleksordningen 80 % från år 2000 till 2050, och med nära 100 % till 2100. Det är framför allt de kumulativa utsläppen av koldioxid och andra långlivade växthusgaser som räknas när det gäller hur stora klimatförändringarna blir bortom 2100. Ju senare de globala utsläppen kulminerar, och ju högre nivå de då är på, desto större blir utmaningen för att åstadkomma en tillräckligt snabb påföljande utsläppsminskningstakt. Reducerade utsläpp av kortlivade klimatpåverkande ämnen är viktigt främst i ett kortare perspektiv. Det finns olika modeller för hur de globala utsläppsminskningarna kan fördelas mellan olika regioner och länder. Dessa baseras inte på naturvetenskapliga principer utan är beroende av politiska och andra ställningstaganden. För en del länder skiljer sig resultaten mycket beroende på valet av fördelningsmodell. För de flesta industriländer är slutsatsen dock generellt sett densamma: jämfört med idag behöver deras utsläpp minska mycket kraftigt. - För att nå tvågradersmålet med i storleksordningen 70 % sannolikhet krävs, givet en globalt lika per capita fördelning av utsläppen från och med 2050, att utsläppen i Sverige minskar med cirka 70 % från år 2005 till 2050. Den motsvarande siffran för EU är cirka 80 %. - För att nå ett 1,5-gradersmål med i storleksordningen 70 % sannolikhet krävs, givet en globalt lika per capita fördelning av utsläppen från och med 2050, att utsläppen minskar från år 2005 till år 2050 med runt 100 % i Sverige och i EU, och i andra länder. - För att nå ett 1,5-gradersmål med i storleksordningen 50 % sannolikhet krävs, givet en globalt lika per capita fördelning av utsläppen från och med 2050, att utsläppen i Sverige och EU minskar med drygt 90 % från år 2005 till 2050. Nettoutsläpp av koldioxid från avskogning och utrikes luft- och sjöfart ingår inte i dessa uppskattningar. Generellt blir riskerna för allvarliga klimateffekter mindre ju mer ambitiöst temperaturmål som väljs, men riskerna försvinner inte med tvågradersmålet, och inte ens med ett 1,5-gradersmål. Jämfört med IPCC:s AR4 från 2007, har nya forskningsresultat publicerats om klimateffekter. I denna rapport har vi fokuserat på havsnivåhöjningen, havsförsurningen, den biologiska mångfalden samt klimateffekter i Arktis. Jämfört med genomgången av kunskapsläget i AR4 visar nya resultat att den framtida havsnivåhöjningen kan bli större, havsförsurningens effekter på marina ekosystem omfattande och även om en del arter kan vara anpassningsbara, kan världens ekosystem påverkas av skillnader i olika arters sårbarhet för klimatförändringarna. I Arktis sker snabba förändringar. Sammantaget ter sig riskerna för allvarliga klimateffekter större jämfört med AR4. Denna rapport utgår från naturvetenskaplig klimatforskning sedan 2007. Rapporten förordar inte något specifikt temperaturmål, någon specifik utsläppsbana eller specifika policybeslut. Dessa är föremål för politiska avgöranden.
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| 25. |
- Simpson, David, et al.
(författare)
-
Environmental Impacts - Atmospheric Chemistry
- 2015
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Ingår i: Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin. - Cham : Springer. - 9783319160054 - 9783319160061 ; , s. 267-289
-
Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This chapter addresses sources and trends of atmospheric pollutants and deposition in relation to the Baltic Sea region. Air pollution is shown to have important effects, including significant contributions to nitrogen loading of the Baltic Sea area, ecosystem impacts due to acidifying and eutrophying pollutants and ozone, and human health impacts. Compounds such as sulphate and ozone also have climate impacts. Emission changes have been very significant over the past 100 years, although very different for land-and sea-based sources. Land-based emissions generally peaked around 1980-1990 and have since reduced due to emissions control measures. Emissions from shipping have been steadily increasing for decades, but recent measures have reduced sulphur and particulate emissions. Future developments depend strongly on policy developments. Changes in concentration and deposition of the acidifying components generally follow emission changes within the European area. Mean ozone levels roughly doubled during the twentieth century across the northern hemisphere, but peak levels have reduced in many regions in the past 20 years. The main changes in air pollution in the Baltic Sea region are due to changes in emissions rather than to climate change.
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| 26. |
- Tornevi, Andreas, et al.
(författare)
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Effekter på luft och hälsa i områden utsatta för rök från skogsbränder med fokus på Jämtland 2018
- 2018
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Denna studie syftar till att följa upp episoden med skogsbrandrök som drabbade Östersund och Jämtland Härjedalen sommaren 2018, samt att belysa vilka erfarenheter man har från andra länder om nivåer för exponering och risker.Tyvärr hade ingen av regionens tätorter kontinuerliga partikelmätningar sommaren 2018. En spridningsmodell vid SMHI användes för att beskriva spridning av rök från skogsbränderna 2018, samt en jämförbar period 2017 (då antalet bränder var färre), med fokus på fina partiklar (PM2.5) och sot-partiklar. Utifrån halt- och befolkningsskikt användes befolkningsviktade dygnsmedelhalter som mått på exponeringen i respektive kommun. Statistik över dagligt antal akuta besök för problem från andnings-organen vid sjukhuset i Östersund och regionens olika vårdcentraler och mottagningar, samt över antalet samtal till sjukvårdsupplysningen 1177 om andningsproblem, användes för att studera eventuella akuta hälsoeffekter inom respektive kommuns befolkning.Enligt beräkningarna förekom befolkningsviktade dygnsmedelhalter på upp till 97 μg/m3. I verkligheten förekom sannolikt, under kortare tid och avgränsade platser, betydligt högre halter. När brand-röksepisoder definierades som dygn med PM2.5>20 μg/m3 beräknades den sammanviktade relativa ökningen av akuta besök gällande astma till 68% (RR=1.68, 95% KI:1.09-2.57). För diagnoser gällande nedre luftvägar totalt observerades en ökning med 40% (RR=1.4, 95% KI:1.01-1.92). I genomsnitt innebar brandröksepisoder en ökning av halten PM2.5 med 28 μg/m3 i jämförelse med referensdygnen.Analyserna av förhöjda partikelhalter i Jämtland-Härjedalen under brandröksperioden sommaren 2018 tyder på att en ökning av akuta problem gällande de nedre luftvägarna kan förväntas från dygns-medelhalter på 20-40 μg/m3 av PM2.5 med ursprung i huvudsak från bränder. För information och varningar under pågående exponering för PM2.5 i skogsbrandrök torde de kriterier för korttidshalter som finns i USA och Kanada vara tillämpliga även för Sverige. Om haltbidraget från branden förväntas bli omkring 60-90 μg/m3 av PM2.5 under 1 timme eller längre bör känsliga grupper uppmanas att begränsa sin exponering.
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| 27. |
- Tornevi, Andreas, et al.
(författare)
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Potential health impacts from a wildfire smoke plume over Region Jämtland Härjedalen, Sweden
- 2023
-
Ingår i: Atmosphere. - : MDPI. - 2073-4433. ; 14:10
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In the summer of 2018, Sweden experienced widespread wildfires, particularly in the region of Jämtland Härjedalen during the final weeks of July. We previously conducted an epidemiological study and investigated acute respiratory health effects in eight municipalities relation to the wildfire air pollution. In this study, we aimed to estimate the potential health impacts under less favorable conditions with different locations of the major fires. Our scenarios focused on the most intense plume from the 2018 wildfire episode affecting the largest municipality, which is the region’s only city. Combining modeled PM2.5 concentrations, gridded population data, and exposure–response functions, we assessed the relative increase in acute health effects. The cumulative population-weighted 24 h PM2.5 exposure during the nine highest-level days reached 207 μg/m3 days for 63,227 inhabitants. We observed a small number of excess cases, particularly in emergency unit visits for asthma, with 13 additional cases compared to the normal 12. Overall, our scenario-based health impact assessment indicates minor effects on the studied endpoints due to factors such as the relatively small population, limited exposure period, and moderate increase in exposure compared to similar assessments. Nonetheless, considering the expected rise in fire potential due to global warming and the long-range transport of wildfire smoke, raising awareness of the potential health risks in this region is important.
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| 28. |
- Tornevi, Andreas, et al.
(författare)
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Respiratory Health Effects of Wildfire Smoke during Summer of 2018 in the Jämtland Härjedalen Region, Sweden
- 2021
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Ingår i: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. - : MDPI. - 1661-7827 .- 1660-4601. ; 18:13
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- During the summer of 2018 Sweden experienced a high occurrence of wildfires, most intense in the low-densely populated Jämtland Härjedalen region. The aim of this study was to investigate any short-term respiratory health effects due to deteriorated air quality generated by the smoke from wildfires. For each municipality in the region Jämtland Härjedalen, daily population-weighted concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) were calculated through the application of the MATCH chemistry transport model. Modelled levels of PM2.5 were obtained for two summer periods (2017, 2018). Potential health effects of wildfire related levels of PM2.5 were examined by studying daily health care contacts concerning respiratory problems in each municipality in a quasi-Poisson regression model, adjusting for long-term trends, weekday patterns and weather conditions. In the municipality most exposed to wildfire smoke, having 9 days with daily maximum 1-h mean of PM2.5 > 20 μg/m3, smoke days resulted in a significant increase in daily asthma visits the same and two following days (relative risk (RR) = 2.64, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.28–5.47). Meta-estimates for all eight municipalities revealed statistically significant increase in asthma visits (RR = 1.68, 95% CI: 1.09–2.57) and also when grouping all disorders of the lower airways (RR = 1.40, 95% CI: 1.01–1.92).
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| 29. |
- von Salzen, Knut, et al.
(författare)
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Clean air policies are key for successfully mitigating Arctic warming
- 2022
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Ingår i: Communications Earth & Environment. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2662-4435. ; 3:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A tighter integration of modeling frameworks for climate and air quality is urgently needed to assess the impacts of clean air policies on future Arctic and global climate. We combined a new model emulator and comprehensive emissions scenarios for air pollutants and greenhouse gases to assess climate and human health co-benefits of emissions reductions. Fossil fuel use is projected to rapidly decline in an increasingly sustainable world, resulting in far-reaching air quality benefits. Despite human health benefits, reductions in sulfur emissions in a more sustainable world could enhance Arctic warming by 0.8 °C in 2050 relative to the 1995–2014, thereby offsetting climate benefits of greenhouse gas reductions. Targeted and technically feasible emissions reduction opportunities exist for achieving simultaneous climate and human health co-benefits. It would be particularly beneficial to unlock a newly identified mitigation potential for carbon particulate matter, yielding Arctic climate benefits equivalent to those from carbon dioxide reductions by 2050.
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| 30. |
- Åström, Christofer, et al.
(författare)
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Developing a heatwave early warning system for Sweden : evaluating sensitivity of different epidemiological modelling approaches to forecast temperatures
- 2015
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Ingår i: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. - : MDPI AG. - 1661-7827 .- 1660-4601. ; 12:1, s. 254-267
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Over the last two decades a number of heatwaves have brought the need for heatwave early warning systems (HEWS) to the attention of many European governments. The HEWS in Europe are operating under the assumption that there is a high correlation between observed and forecasted temperatures. We investigated the sensitivity of different temperature mortality relationships when using forecast temperatures. We modelled mortality in Stockholm using observed temperatures and made predictions using forecast temperatures from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts to assess the sensitivity. We found that the forecast will alter the expected future risk differently for different temperature mortality relationships. The more complex models seemed more sensitive to inaccurate forecasts. Despite the difference between models, there was a high agreement between models when identifying risk-days. We find that considerations of the accuracy in temperature forecasts should be part of the design of a HEWS. Currently operating HEWS do evaluate their predictive performance; this information should also be part of the evaluation of the epidemiological models that are the foundation in the HEWS. The most accurate description of the relationship between high temperature and mortality might not be the most suitable or practical when incorporated into a HEWS.
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