| 1. |
- Berggren, Peter, et al.
(författare)
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Coping with large disruptions in the payment system : stakeholder experience from stakeholder workshops and computer based simulation gaming exercises
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Proceedings of the 2020 the 3rd International Conference on Computers in Management and Business (ICCMB 2020) Session - Computer and Mobile Technology. - New York : Association for Computing Machinery (ACM). - 9781450376778 ; , s. 141-145, s. 141-145
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper, we describe a work in progress where a mixed methods approach is used to increase insight into what kind of consequences a temporal disruption or total breakdown of the payment system creates for a large variety of societal actors and to increase insight in how their collaborative behaviour can be guided to be more resilient. This approach includes data from different types of data collections; workshop with high-level decisionmakers from involved sectors, interviews with citizens, representatives from the fuel, foods, and finance sectors, as well as experiences from 15 simulation game exercises with stakeholders. The triangulated and aggregated outcomes of the different data collections resulted in a set of recommendations on how to cope with disruptions in the card payment system.
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| 2. |
- Bergsten, Linnea, et al.
(författare)
-
Designing engaging computer based simulation games for increasing societal resilience to payment system
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Proceedings of the 2020 the 3rd International Conference on Computers in Management and Business (ICCMB 2020) Session - Computer and Mobile Technology. - New York : Association for Computing Machinery (ACM). - 9781450376778 ; , s. 166-172, s. 166-172
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Large or lengthy disruptions to the card payment system are threats that can cause crisis in society, especially in countries where other payment options are scarce. This paper presents a study that provides suggestions on how to improve a simulation game used to increase societal resilience to payment system disruptions. Questionnaires and interviews have been used to investigate how 16 participant in crisis exercises experience realism, relevance and validity in such exercises. Suggestions on how to improve the simulation game are provided, such as improvements to the graphical interface and introducing supporting roles from the exercise management.
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| 3. |
- Björkqvist, Olof, et al.
(författare)
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Risk Assessment of New Pricing Strategies in the District Heating Market : A Case Study at Sundsvall Energi AB
- 2010
-
Ingår i: Energy Policy. - : Elsevier. - 0301-4215 .- 1873-6777. ; 38:5, s. 2171-2178
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The price structure of district heating has been no major scientific issue for the last decades in energy-related research. However, today trends in district heating pricing tend to move towards a more customer-oriented approach with predetermined prices under a longer periods, leading to a more complex price structure. If a district heating supplier offers district heating with predetermined prices in order to compete with similar electricity offers, the financial risk of the new price structure is significantly higher than the risk of an ordinary variable cost offer based on short-run marginal cost. In contrary to an electricity seller, the district heating company cannot transfer all of the risk of predetermined prices to the financial market, instead the company is thrown upon its own ability to handle the risk by, e.g., hedging its own energy purchase. However, all uncertainties cannot be coped with in this manner. Thus, there is a need for a methodology that can be used to estimate the financial risk of different price structures and to value different opportunities to reduce the risk. In this article, we propose a methodology, implemented in prototype software, to evaluate the risk associated with new price structures in district heating.
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| 4. |
- Bohman, Samuel, et al.
(författare)
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Trade-off in statistical design process
- 2012
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The design and planning of a statistical survey can be regarded as a complex decision process involving multiple stakeholders and a diverse set of users. The process involves finding a balance between statistical quality, burden on respondents and costs. Our research is aimed towards developing a prototype system consisting of computational core based on the combination of multi-objective optimization, multi-criteria analysis, and a user-friendly interface. The overall objective of the research is to maximize statistical quality while minimizing the burden on respondents and costs.
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| 5. |
- Bohman, Samuel, 1975-
(författare)
-
Web Applications for Large-Scale Decision Support : Preference Elicitation, Modeling and Visualization
- 2021
-
Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This thesis addresses the lack of effective and efficient technology design in current e-participation research by investigating two approaches that yet have not been explored to any great extent in the literature: decision science and data visualization. It is concerned with the problem of how to combine techniques from these two fields to achieve decision support in the context of e-participation; from preference elicitation and modeling to data analysis, visualization and final recommendations, such that it can provide value to practitioners. The work was carried out in two separate research projects, but which shared a common research strategy: to develop, demonstrate, and evaluate e-participation technologies in real-life settings. The first project was a pilot designed to provide European universities with a web-based e-participation platform to empower students in the Bologna Process. Thirteen universities in Europe participated as end-users of the platform. Using a mixed methods research design, the results showed that ICT is poorly conceptualized in e-participation research and practice, typically conceived informally and simply as tools, independent of the political and social context within which they are developed and used. With regard to sociotechnical challenges in e-participation, the results confirm much of previous research that has underlined the prevalence of technological determinism, institutional resistance, privacy and trust issues, among many other factors. In the second project we developed a decision analytic framework for structuring, evaluating, and analyzing stakeholder conflicts in land-use planning. The Municipality of Upplands Väsby in Stockholm, Sweden, participated as a trial. Using agile design principles and methods we implemented the framework as a prototype spatial decision support system using the R programming language. Our prototype shows that a combination of decision science and data visualization has the potential to become a powerful tool in the hands of governments to enable members of society to identify where their differences really matter and where they are unimportant, thus providing structure and new insight to democratic debate. Furthermore, we believe it has the potential to alleviate some of the barriers and limitations associated with traditional methods of community engagement, including distance and time constraints, issues of scale, and high costs.
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Borking, Kjell, et al.
(författare)
-
Transcending Business Intelligence
- 2011. - 1
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Bok (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
- How on Earth did this happen? The question is not infrequent, but more to the point, it?s unnecessary. It arises because in many cases people haven?t thought things through beforehand. Yes, sometimes people can be unlucky, but far from every time that things go awry; bad luck is never so consistent - by definition. Thinking things through properly beforehand might seem a fairly obvious requirement for making a good decision, but startlingly often, even critical decisions are made without any in depth analysis. Well, there may have been some background data lying around somewhere, but not much is done with it. Though it's easy to blame authoritarian leadership or the like, poor decision making is far more usually due to not really knowing what to do with the available information, whether it's sufficient and what else needs to be known There?s nothing weird or idiotic about today?s decision makers, but there often is about the tools and methods available to them. It would be more accurate to say that many decision makers have been lead astray regarding their remit and capacity, but fortunately with structured decision processes they can be guided back on track far more easily than had they been as dim- witted as some of their decisions would indicate.Businesses introduce various BI solutions both timely and untimely, but what most of them don't have is any kind of methodology by which to deal with decisions. With no processes, knowledge, techniques or tools, they soon come to grief. Happily this is fairly easy to remedy.Decision processes and decision methods can be greatly improved. In this book we simply explain how to go about it.
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| 8. |
- Borking, Kjell, et al.
(författare)
-
Transcending Business Intelligence
- 2022. - Third
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Bok (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Det största problemet med mänskligt beslutsfattande är att intuitionen sällan är tillräcklig. I många fall är det helt enkelt för svårt att fatta rationella och väl övervägda beslut utan hjälp. Ett ännu större problem är att de flesta inte inser detta. Människor tror att de är rationella men i själva verket är deras förmåga till rationalitet ganska begränsad, en situation som förvärras av villfarelsen att vi utan någon form av hjälp kan fatta kloka beslut. Man kan tycka att organisationer och människor bara ska gå vidare med saker och ting så bra de kan och lämna det där, men det är ofta så att beslut påverkar andra människor, ibland ganska mycket, ibland avgörande, och i vissa fall påverkar de många. andra människor eller organismer, födda och ofödda. Det gäller till exempel offentliga beslut om policys, inte minst under covid-19-pandemin, och om storskaliga infrastrukturprojekt. Inte ovanligt får vi intrycket av ett oacceptabelt stort inslag av slump, även i mycket kostsamma eller kontroversiella frågor. Detta är ganska onödigt.
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| 9. |
- Cristofaro, Matteo, et al.
(författare)
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Contextualized behavior for improving managerial and entrepreneurial decision-making
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Administrative Sciences. - : MDPI AG. - 2076-3387. ; 11
-
Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Since the conceptualization of bounded rationality by Herbert Simon (1947), management scholars started investigating how people—managers and entrepreneurs—really make decisions within (and for) organizations [...]
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| 10. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(författare)
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A Decision Analytical Perspective on Public Procurement Processes
- 2016
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Ingår i: Real-World Decision Support Systems. - Cham : Springer. - 9783319439150 - 9783319439167 ; , s. 125-150
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- If procurement processes are to be taken seriously, purchase managers need decision support tools beyond those that only ascertain that the formal requirements are met. This chapter demonstrates some fundamental flaws with common models used in procurement situations, flaws that are so serious that the evaluations of tenders often become meaningless and may lead to large and costly miscalculations. We demonstrate how the equitability of the tender evaluations can be significantly improved through the use of multi-criteria decision analysis with numerically imprecise input information. Due to this, the computational part of the evaluation step becomes more complex, and algorithms targeted for decision evaluation with imprecise data are used. We therefore present a procurement decision tool, Decide IT, implementing such algorithms that can be used as an instrument for a more meaningful procurement process. Of importance is to allow for a more realistic degree of precision in the valuation and ranking of tenders under each evaluation criterion, as well as the associated weighting of the criteria, since the criteria are often of a more qualitative nature. Through this, both quantitative and qualitative statements could be easily managed within the same framework and without the need to introduce ad-hoc and often arbitrary conversion formulas supposed to capture the trade-off between criteria.
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| 11. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(författare)
-
A second-order-based decision tool for evaluating decisions under conditions of severe uncertainty
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Knowledge-Based Systems. - : Elsevier BV. - 0950-7051 .- 1872-7409. ; 191
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The requirement to assign precise numerical values to model entities such as criteria weights, probabilities, and utilities is too strong in most real-life decision situations, and hence alternative representations and evaluation mechanisms are important to consider. In this paper, we discuss the DecideIT 3.0 state-of-the-art software decision tool and demonstrate its functionality using a real-life case. The tool is based on a belief mass interpretation of the decision information, where the components are imprecise by means of intervals and qualitative estimates, and we discuss how multiplicative and additive aggregations influence the resulting distribution over the expected values.
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| 12. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(författare)
-
Cross-disciplinary research in analytic decision support systems
- 2006
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Ingår i: ITI 2006. - Zagreb : University Computing Centre SRCE, University of Zagreb. - 9537138054 ; , s. 123-128
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- A main problem in nearly all contexts is that unguided decision making is tremendously difficult and can lead to inefficient decision processes and undesired consequences. Therefore, decision support systems (DSSs) are of prime concern to any organization and there have been numerous approaches to such from, e.g., computational, mathematical, financial, philosophical, psychological, and sociological angles. However, a key observation is that efficient decision making is not easily performed by using methods from one discipline only. The case is rather that if real world decision making is taken seriously, several aspects must be included. This article describes some efforts of the DECIDE research group for approaching decision making and developing DSSs in a cross-disciplinary environment.
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| 13. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(författare)
-
Cross-Disciplinary Research in Analytic Decision Support Systems
- 2006
-
Ingår i: ITI 2006. - Zagreb : University Computing Centre SRCE, University of Zagreb. - 9537138054 ; , s. 123-128
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- A main problem in decision support contexts is that unguided decision making is difficult and can lead to inefficient decision processes and undesired consequences. Therefore, decision support systems (DSSs) are of prime concern to any organization and there have been numerous approaches to delivering decision support from, e.g., computational, mathematical, financial, philosophical, psychological, and sociological angles. A key observation, however, is that effective and efficient decision making is not easily achieved by using methods from one discipline only. This paper describes some efforts made by the DECIDE Research Group to approach DSS development and decision making tools in a cross-disciplinary way.
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| 14. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(författare)
-
Decideit 3.0 : Software for Second-Order Based Decision Evaluations
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Proceedings of Machine Learning Research. - : JMLR-JOURNAL MACHINE LEARNING RESEARCH. ; , s. 121-124, s. 121-124
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper, we discuss representation and evaluation in the DecideIT 3.0 decision tool which is based on a belief mass interpretation of the background information. The decision components are imprecise in terms of intervals and qualitative estimates and we emphasise how multiplicative and additive aggregations influence the resulting belief distribution over the expected values.
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| 15. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(författare)
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Distribution of Belief in Decision Trees
- 2007
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Ingår i: International Journal of Approximate Reasoning. - 0888-613X .- 1873-4731. ; 46:2, s. pp. 387-407
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 16. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(författare)
-
Distribution of expected utility in decision trees
- 2007
-
Ingår i: International Journal of Approximate Reasoning. - : Elsevier BV. - 0888-613X .- 1873-4731. ; 46:2, s. 387-407
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Evaluation of decision trees in which uncertain information is present is complicated. Especially when the tree has some depth, i.e. consists of more than one level, the effects of the choice of representation and evaluation procedures are significant. Second-order representation and evaluation may significantly increase a decisionmaker's understanding of a decision situation when handling aggregations of imprecise representations, as is the case in decision trees or influence diagrams, while the use of only first-order results gives an incomplete picture. Furthermore, due to the effects on the distribution of belief over the intervals of expected utilities, the Gamma-maximin decision rule seems to be unnecessarily pessimistic as the belief in neighbourhoods of points near interval boundaries is usually lower than in neighbourhoods near the centre. Due to this, a generalized expected utility is proposed. The results in this paper apply also to approaches which do not explicitly deal with second-order information, such as standard decision trees or probabilistic networks using only first-order concepts, for example upper and lower bounds. Furthermore, the results also apply to other, non-probabilistic weighted trees such as multi-criteria weight trees.
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| 17. |
- Danielson, Mats, 1959-, et al.
(författare)
-
Evaluating Multi-criteria Decisions Under Conditions of Strong Uncertainty
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Multicriteria and Optimization Models for Risk, Reliability, and Maintenance Decision Analysis. - Cham : Springer. - 9783030896478 - 9783030896461 ; , s. 41-55
-
Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Decisions under risk and multi-criteria decisions are unfortunately usually studied independently, despite the fact that in actual decision-making problems often contain several criteria, as well as uncertain outcomes. This is unnecessary since the two approaches can quite straightforwardly be used within the same framework. This article describes how it can be done when the decision components are imprecise in terms of intervals and qualitative estimates. We also demonstrate an implementation of the theory on a real-life decision problem.
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| 18. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(författare)
-
Generalised Risk Constraints in Decision Trees with Second-Order Probabilities
- 2012
-
Ingår i: Advances in Economics, Risk Management, Political and Law Science. - : World Scientific and Engineering Academy and Society. - 9781618041234 ; , s. 376-383
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recently, representations and methods analysing decision problems where probabilities and values (utilities) are associated with belief distributions over them (second order representations) have been suggested. Inthis paper we present an approach to how imprecise information can be modelled by means of second-order distri-butions and how a risk evaluation process can be elaborated by integrating procedures for numerically impreciseprobabilities and utilities. We discuss some shortcomings in the use of the principle of maximising the expectedutility and of utility theory in general, and offer remedies by the introduction of supplementary decision rules basedon a concept of risk constraints taking advantage of second-order distributions.
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| 19. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(författare)
-
Public Decision Support - Using a DSS to Increase Democratic Transparency
- 2005
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Ingår i: International Journal of Public Information Systems. - Sundsvall : Mittuniversitetet. - 1653-4360. ; 1:1, s. 3-25
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present a case study in which a decision support method (ADL) was employed by a local government in order to guide and aid decisions on three complicated and politically infected issues which had remained unresolved for many years. The research inquiry was whether a well-defined and openly accessible method would aid a common understanding of the decision problems, and whether people would be able to accept a clearly motivated decision even if politically they preferred a different option. The ADL method has been used in several public sector projects ranging from very large purchasing decisions to the selection of national policies, but this test case was novel in that it involved close inspection by the public. This case was also devised as a test of new methods for potential inclusion into normal practices. The post-case analysis shows mixed understanding of and belief in the method. The results raise issues concerning both the potential for decision support methods in a political context and the nature of political decision making.
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| 20. |
- Danielson, Mats, 1959-, et al.
(författare)
-
Structured eDemocracy beyond eDiscussion
- 2009
-
Ingår i: Proceedings of eChallenges 2009.
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents a case showing how the use of a transparent decision support model can increase the effectiveness of the preparatory, analysis and negotiation stages of a democratic decision process. The case is of a democratic decision process taking advantage of a transparent decision support model, which may be extended to also include participatory elements in a well-defined manner. The support methods must allow for decision modelling with respect to different preferences and views, which further can be adjusted in an interactive fashion when considering calculated decision outcomes.
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| 21. |
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| 22. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(författare)
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The DecideIT Decision Tool
- 2003
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Ingår i: ISIPTA '03. - : Carleton Scientific. - 1894145178 ; , s. 204-217
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The nature of much information available to decision makers is vague and imprecise, be it information for human managers in organisations or for process agents in a distributed computer environment. Several models for handling vague and imprecise information in decision situations have been suggested. In particular, various interval methods have prevailed, i.e. methods based on interval estimates of probabilities and, in some cases, interval utility estimates. Even if these approaches in general are well founded, little has been done to take into consideration the evaluation perspective and, in particular, computational aspects and implementation issues. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a tool for handling imprecise information in decision situations. The tool is an implementation of our earlier research focussing on finding fast algorithms for solving bilinear systems of equations together with a graphical user interface supporting the interpretation of evaluations of imprecise data.
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| 23. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(författare)
-
Transparent Public Decision Making : Discussion and Case Study in Sweden
- 2010
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Ingår i: e-Democracy. - Dordrecht : Springer. - 9789048190447 - 9789048190454 ; , s. 263-281
-
Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The Swedish city of Örebro has since long faced complex problems with poor water quality in a local river. This problem is a typical example of a regional decision problem, since there are several different stakeholders that might be affected, and there are different views on the need for, and effect of, different measures. The problems also strongly relate to the environmental condition of the river and involve other municipalities as well. In this chapter, we describe how to address this problem using an implementation of a systematic democratic deci-sion process for enhancing the transparency and the decision quality in itself. The process is in conformity with common democratic processes, but with higher em-phasis on accuracy and precision and on the interaction between civil servants and decision makers. A main issue here is to clearly separate the various views in-volved in these processes from the actual facts and, at the same time, facilitate input from various stakeholders. Therefore, we allow for modelling of outcomes based on different preferences and facilitate an elicitation process where views are extracted and combined with basic data from the background investigations preceding the decision. The process is divided into two stages. The first one is em-phasized in this chapter and concerns the internal democracy, i.e. the formulation and refinement of the original and extended decision problems and the interaction between politicians and civil servants, while the second stage deals with the external democracy, i.e. the communication with the public, where communication channels directed towards citizens will be formed.
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| 24. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(författare)
-
Using a Software Tool for Public Decision Analysis Analysis : the Case of Nacka Municipality
- 2007
-
Ingår i: Decision Analysis. - : INFORMS/Highwire Press. - 1545-8490 .- 1545-8504. ; 4(2), s. 76-90
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents a case of interval decision analysis using a tool that takes advantage of interval probabilities, values, and criteria weights, and is capable of handling comparative relations, i.e. interval statements on differences between variables. These statements are represented as constraints to the solution set and evaluated using a number of different evaluation methods, each serving the decision-maker with different insights of the decision problem. We demonstrate the applicability of the tool in a case study regarding three public infrastructure decision problems which had remained unresolved during a number of years.
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| 25. |
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| 26. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(författare)
-
Weighting Under Ambiguous Preferences and Imprecise Differences in a Cardinal Rank Ordering Process
- 2014
-
Ingår i: International Journal of Computational Intelligence Systems. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1875-6891 .- 1875-6883. ; 7:S1, s. 105-112
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The limited amount of good tools for supporting elicitation of preference information in multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) causes practical problem. In our experiences, this can be remedied by allowing more relaxed input statements from decision-makers, causing the elicitation process to be less cognitively demanding. Furthermore, it should not be too time consuming and must be able to actually use of the information the decision-maker is able to supply. In this paper, we propose a useful weight elicitation method for MAVT/MAUT decision making, which builds on the ideas of rank-order methods, but increases the precision by adding numerically imprecise cardinal information as well.
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| 27. |
- Danielsson, Mats, et al.
(författare)
-
Investment Decision Analysis : a case study at SCA Transforest
- 2003
-
Ingår i: IKE'03: Proceedings of the international conference on infomration and knowledge engineering. - 1932415092 ; , s. 79-85
-
Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In investment decision-making in organizations, large values can be at stake. The need for a structured process is evident, not least when several people or interests are involved in the process. We advocate that the use of modern computational decision analysis can improve such investment processes by improving visibility and only requiring reasonably precise input data. The applicability of a structured decision analysis to corporate decision-making is demonstrated in a case study at SCA Transforest, a subdivision to SCA. The decision problem consists of whether a new system for logistic control should be implemented or not. The background information was collected through interviews and the structuring and analysis of the problem was performed using the tool DecideIT, designed for handling situations where uncertainties in input data prevail. The result of the analysis points out a reasonable action, but also shows which aspects are crucial to consider for a reliable result.
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| 28. |
- Dobslaw, Felix, 1983-, et al.
(författare)
-
An Object-Oriented Model in Support of Context Aware Mobile Applications
- 2010
-
Ingår i: Mobile Wireless Middleware, Operating Systems, and Applications. - Berlin Hedielberg : Springer Verlag. - 9783642177576
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Intelligent and context-aware mobile services require users and applications to share information and utilize services from remote locations. Thus, context information from the users must be structured and be accessible to applications running in end-devices. In response to this challenge, we present a shared object-oriented meta model for a persistent agent environment. The approach enables agents to be context aware facilitating the creation of ambient intelligence demonstrated by a sensor-based scenario. The agents are context-aware as agent actions are based upon sensor information, social information, and the behavior of co-agents.
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| 29. |
- Ekenberg, Love, 1962-, et al.
(författare)
-
A Framework for COVID-19 Pandemic Intervention Modelling and Analysis for Policy Formation Support in Botswana
- 2023
-
Ingår i: The International Journal on Advances in ICT for Emerging Regions. - : Sri Lanka Journals Online (JOL). - 1800-4156 .- 2550-2794. ; 15:3, s. 46-59
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Syftet med denna forskning var att utveckla ett metodiskt ramverk som skulle kunna tillämpas för policybildning i situationer med en hög nivå av osäkerhet och heterogenitet av befintliga åsikter bland involverade intressenter om riskreducering och hantering såsom covid-19 pandemisk risk. I detta dokument presenterar vi ett sådant ramverk och dess tillämpning för beslutsfattande i Botswana för att mildra covid-19-pandemin. Syftet med den föreslagna modellen är dubbelt: för det första att förse beslutsfattare med tillförlitlig och användbar epidemiologisk modellering eftersom åtgärder för att begränsa spridningen av covid-19-viruset till en början till stor del baserades på olika epidemiologiska riskbedömningar. För det andra, med tanke på att vissa uppsättningar åtgärder som antagits i andra delar av världen successivt medför höga eller till och med mycket höga sociala och ekonomiska kostnader för de länder som antog dessa åtgärder, tillhandahöll vi en beslutsstödsmodell med flera kriterier som kunde användas för att att väga olika politiska tillvägagångssätt för att bekämpa virusspridningen med hänsyn till lokala konsekvensbedömningar inom en mängd olika samhällsområden. Vi beskriver hur utformningen av en nationell covid-19-strategi och policy i Botswana 2020 hjälptes till genom att använda IKT-beslutsstödsmodeller som en viktig informationskälla. Därefter presenterar vi simuleringsmodellen för virusspridning och dess resultat som är kopplade till en multikriteriebeslutsstödsmodell. Slutligen diskuterar vi hur ramverket kan vidareutvecklas för Botswanas behov för att optimera riskhanteringsalternativ vid hantering av covid-19 och andra pandemiscenarier. Det betydande forskningsbidraget är att flytta fram forskningsfronten när det gäller en metodik för att inkludera heterogenitet i åsikter och identifiering av kompromisslösningar i policyrelevanta diskurser under en hög grad av osäkerhet.
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| 30. |
- Ekenberg, Love, et al.
(författare)
-
Deliberation, representation, equity : research approaches, tools and algorithms for participatory processes
- 2017
-
Bok (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- What can we learn about the development of public interaction in e-democracy from a drama delivered by mobile headphones to an audience standing around a shopping center in a Stockholm suburb? In democratic societies there is widespread acknowledgment of the need to incorporate citizens' input in decision-making processes in more or less structured ways. But participatory decision making is balancing on the borders of inclusion, structure, precision and accuracy. To simply enable more participation will not yield enhanced democracy, and there is a clear need for more elaborated elicitation and decision analytical tools. This rigorous and thought-provoking volume draws on a stimulating variety of international case studies, from flood risk management in the Red River Delta of Vietnam, to the consideration of alternatives to gold mining in Ro?ia Montana in Transylvania, to the application of multi-criteria decision analysis in evaluating the impact of e-learning opportunities at Uganda's Makerere University. Editors Love Ekenberg (senior research scholar, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA], Laxenburg, professor of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University), Karin Hansson (artist and research fellow, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University), Mats Danielson (vice president and professor of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University, affiliate researcher, IIASA) and Göran Cars (professor of Societal Planning and Environment, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm) draw innovative collaborations between mathematics, social science, and the arts. They develop new problem formulations and solutions, with the aim of carrying decisions from agenda setting and problem awareness through to feasible courses of action by setting objectives, alternative generation, consequence assessments, and trade-off clarifications. As a result, this book is important new reading for decision makers in government, public administration and urban planning, as well as students and researchers in the fields of participatory democracy, urban planning, social policy, communication design, participatory art, decision theory, risk analysis and computer and systems sciences.
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| 31. |
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| 32. |
- Ekenberg, Love, et al.
(författare)
-
Distributions over Expected Utilities in Decision Analysis
- 2007
-
Ingår i: ISIPTA 2007 - Proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications. - 9788086742205 ; , s. 175-182
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- It is often recognised that in real-life decision situations, classical utility theory puts too strong requirements on the decision-maker. Various interval approaches for decision making have therefore been developed and these have been reasonably successful. However, a problem that sometimes appears in real-life situations is that the result of an evaluation still has an uncertainty about which alternative is to prefer. This is due to expected utility overlaps rendering discrimination more difficult. In this article we discuss how adding second-order information may increase a decision-maker�s understanding of a decision situation when handling aggregations of imprecise representations, as is the case in decision trees or influence diagrams.
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| 33. |
- Ekenberg, Love, et al.
(författare)
-
Hazards and quality control in humanitarian demining
- 2018
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Ingår i: International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management. - 0265-671X .- 1758-6682. ; 35:4, s. 897-913
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to discuss the adequacy of International Mine Action Standards 09.20 (IMAS 09.20) and the used standards ISO 2859 in the context of demining. Design/methodology/approach: The authors show how the actual quality level acceptable quality limit (AQL) significantly affects the average total quality cost for one lot with a single sampling plan and, consequently, the average total quality cost, and as AQL increases, the cost of rejecting a lot and the cost of sampling increase. Findings: The sampling plans for demining are not always optimal given economical and other concerns and that other mechanisms should be considered. Practical implications: Addressing opportunity costs for adopting wide samplings plans instead of clearing uncleared land per default, as well as balancing producer and consumer consequences seems, therefore, to be highly relevant from a socio-economical perspective. Originality/value The general understanding of quality management and the systems involved are limited within the mine action sector. IMAS and most national mine action standards provide only a fairly narrow description of the issue. This implies that the field is missing opportunities to achieve efficiency and effectiveness, as well as to learn from and improve upon past experiences. The authors demonstrate herein that sampling provides little additional confidence as to whether a particular area is free from explosive hazards and substantial savings can be made compared to the current practice.
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| 34. |
- Ekenberg, Love, et al.
(författare)
-
Second order effects in interval valued decision graph models
- 2005
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the Eighteenth International Florida Artificial Intelligence Research Society Conference, FLAIRS 2005 - Recent Advances in Artifical Intelligence. - : AAAI Press. - 1577352343 ; , s. 728-733
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Second-order calculations may significantly increase a decision maker's understanding of a decision situation when handling aggregations of imprecise representations, as is the case in decision trees or influence diagrams, while the use of only first-order results gives an incomplete picture. The results apply also to approaches which do not explicitly deal with second-order distributions, instead using only first-order concepts such as upper and lower bounds.
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| 35. |
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| 36. |
- Ekenberg, Love, et al.
(författare)
-
Second-order risk constraints
- 2008
-
Ingår i: Proceedings of the 21th International Florida Artificial Intelligence Research Society Conference, FLAIRS-21. - Menlo Park : AAAI Press. - 9781577353652 ; , s. 637-642
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper discusses how numerically imprecise information can be modelled and how a risk evaluation process can be elaborated by integrating procedures for numerically imprecise probabilities and utilities. More recently, representations and methods for stating and analysing probabilities and values (utilities) with belief distributions over them (second order representations) have been suggested. In this paper, we are discussing some shortcomings in the use of the principle of maximising the expected utility and of utility theory in general, and offer remedies by the introduction of supplementary decision rules based on a concept of risk constraints taking advantage of second-order distributions.
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| 37. |
- Ekenberg, Love, et al.
(författare)
-
Second-Order Risk Constraints in Decision Analysis
- 2014
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Ingår i: Axioms. - Basel : MDPI AG. - 2075-1680. ; 3:1, s. 31-45
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recently, representations and methods aimed at analysing decision problems where probabilities and values (utilities) are associated with distributions over them (second-order representations) have been suggested. In this paper we present an approach to how imprecise information can be modelled by means of second-order distributions and how a risk evaluation process can be elaborated by integrating procedures for numerically imprecise probabilities and utilities. We discuss some shortcomings of the use of the principle of maximising the expected utility and of utility theory in general, and offer remedies by the introduction of supplementary decision rules based on a concept of risk constraints taking advantage of second-order distributions.
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| 38. |
- Ekenberg, Love, 1962-, et al.
(författare)
-
The Lack of Transparency in Public Decision Processes
- 2009
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Ingår i: International Journal of Public Information Systems. - Sundsvall : Mid Sweden University. - 1653-4360. ; 5:1, s. 1-8
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We discuss the lack of transparency and use of elaborated decision methods in public decision processes. The decision regarding new roads in the greater Stockholm area has been used as a significant example.
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| 39. |
- Ekener, Elisabeth, 1963-, et al.
(författare)
-
Developing Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment methodology by applying values-based sustainability weighting - Tested on biomass based and fossil transportation fuels
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Journal of Cleaner Production. - : Elsevier BV. - 0959-6526 .- 1879-1786. ; 181, s. 337-351
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The production and use of transportation fuels can lead to sustainability impacts. Assessing them simultaneously in a holistic way is a challenge. This paper examines methodology for assessing the sustainability performance of products in a more integrated way, including a broad range of social impacts. Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment (LCSA) methodology is applied for this assessment. LSCA often constitutes of the integration of results from social LCA (S-LCA), environmental life cycle assessment (E-LCA) and life cycle costing (LCC). In this study, an S-LCA from an earlier project is extended with a positive social aspect, as well as refined and detailed. E-LCA and LCC results are built from LCA database and literature. Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methodology is applied to integrate the results from the three different assessments into an LCSA. The weighting of key sustainability dimensions in the MCDA is performed in different ways, where the sustainability dimensions are prioritized differently priority based on the assumed values of different stakeholder profiles (Egalitarian, Hierarchist, and Individualist). The developed methodology is tested on selected biomass based and fossil transportation fuels - ethanol produced from Brazilian sugarcane and US corn/maize, and petrol produced from Russian and Nigerian crude oils, where it delineates differences in sustainability performance between products assessed. The outcome in terms of relative ranking of the transportation fuel chains based on sustain ability performance differs when applying different decision-maker profiles. This result highlights and supports views that there is no one single answer regarding which of the alternatives that is most sustainable. Rather, it depends strongly upon the worldview and values held by the decision maker. A key conclusion is that sustainability assessments should pay more attention to potential differences in underlying values held by key stakeholders in relevant societal contexts. The LCSA methodology still faces challenges regarding results integration but MCDA in combination with stakeholder profiles appears to be a useful approach to build on further.
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| 40. |
- Ekener, Elisabeth, et al.
(författare)
-
Operationalising and incorporating ethical considerations into a tool for multi-criteria decision making
- 2016
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Ingår i: International Journal of Multicriteria Decision Making. - : InderScience Publishers. - 2040-106X .- 2040-1078. ; 6:4, s. 290-315
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this study, an existing method for ethical analysis was extended by adding aspects of human rights and global distributional issues as framed by the United Nations (UN) Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR) and the UN Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). A procedure for incorporating these issues together with environmental, safety and cost considerations into a decision making framework using multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) was devised. This includes a scoring system to convert qualitative ethical issues into semi-quantitative issues. The refined framework tool was tested in an illustrative case on the destruction of ammunition. The results showed that the extended framework for ethical analysis added value, for example as a way of highlighting ethical considerations in decision making. Use of the DecideIT software with its integrated MCDA improved the analysis by allowing for uncertain and imprecise values and estimations. The illustrative case results indicated that a combined alternative including recycling of metals and energetic materials had clear advantages over open detonation.
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| 41. |
- Elly Amani, Gamukama, et al.
(författare)
-
Group Decision Evaluation of Internet Services in the Context of Development
-
Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The paper presents group decision assessment for the Internet services in the context of development (ISCD). The assessment is achieved through the use of a decision model whose fundamental goal is to provide a systematic approach for addressing the problem of misalignments among the Internet stakeholders’ objectives. The modelling of the problem is approached from the perspectives of delivering/receiving the Internet services that maximizes the respective stakeholders’ objectives. Based on the AHP theory, it structures the problem into four hierarchies with three aspects of consideration as (a) services relevance in context of development, (b) services delivery mechanism convergence to IP Infrastructure and (c) services commensurability to traffic classes’ requirements. An assessment of the aggregated individually derived final priorities (AIP) reveals that for aligning the stakeholders’ objectives at local level, end users should first strive to implement the Internet components/applications that can cause high impact to their transactions/business, followed by those services/applications that can “empower” them to fulfil their goals. While at global level, the affordability of recurring subscriptions for Internet access, end user terminal equipment cost, and coverage rage/penetration are the key issues that the policy makers should address in view of achieving the ISCD objectives. Finally the paper includes strategic options for the best course of action in aligning the stakeholders’ objectives.
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| 42. |
- Enström, Johanna
(författare)
-
A Systems View of Advancements in Biomass Supply Chains
- 2022
-
Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Forest fuel is an important source of energy with potential for increased use in the Nordic countries. Profitable forest operations are dependent on logistics as the forest is a natural resource with varying conditions over widespread areas. In comparison to saw log and pulp wood supply, forest fuel supply has to face challenges like low product value, seasonality and irregularity of customer demand, low bulk density and the need to process the biomass prior to delivery. In order to utilize both the economic potential and societal benefits from replacing fossil-based fuels with renewable forest fuels these challenges must be managed. This requires efficient long distance transports, with changes of transport mode typically required.This thesis examines preconditions necessary for logistic planning to achieve cost and energy efficient long distance transports within supply chains for forest fuel. The thesis has an explorative approach, including both qualitative and quantitative techniques. Paper I provides a review of the development within forestry logistics in Sweden and Finland since the beginning of the century, with focus on transports, terminal usage and storage related aspects. Paper II uses qualitative interviews to deepen the understanding of a specific forest fuel supply chain by focusing on communications and relations between the actors. Paper III is a study of the influence of a terminal before maritime transport of wood chips using simulation. Paper I shows that forestry logistics faces challenges, primarily related to increased variations in field conditions caused by climate change. The importance of terminal storage for the supply of forest products will likely increase as an effect. Also the entrepreneurs interviewed in Paper II stressed the benefits of terminals in the supply chain, e.g. enhanced planning opportunities and a more even workflow over the year. Paper III puts cost for extra terminal handling in relation to storage costs in a port and demonstrates the importance of including variation in logistic planning. The terminal flows were not profitable in the case of a small port. In order to make a well-founded decision gains in other parts of the supply chain must also be considered, even when they are harder to quantify. This deserves attention in future research.
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| 43. |
- Enström, Johanna, et al.
(författare)
-
Wood chip supply from forest to port of loading – A simulation study
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Biomass and Bioenergy. - : Elsevier. - 0961-9534 .- 1873-2909. ; 152
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Maritime transport facilitates trade with bioenergy feedstocks in the Baltic region. The study aims to provide guidance on efficient organisation of logistics at the port of loading for maritime transport of wood chips. The economic effects of using an intermediate terminal as opposed to direct delivery to port were studied, as well as the relationships between production capacity and storage capacity. Discrete-Event Simulation was used to analyse scenarios where a variable part of the volume is handled through the terminal. The total supply cost, including chipping, transportation, storage and handling at inland terminal and port, as well as loading of the ship, varied between €6.73 and 7.85 per MWh in the different scenarios. The volume passing through the terminal had a significant influence on total cost, showing a supply chain cost increase of €0.78 per m3 (approxi-mately €4.67 per dry tonne) for material delivered through the terminal. The difference in storage cost between port and inland terminal determines whether the terminal volumes affect costs, which was shown by a sensitivity analysis. Even so, the terminal offers a possibility to manage uncertainty, both in production rates and inshipping date, and influences the supply network. The main advantage of using a simulation technique for planning production and logistic flows is the visualisation of risks and margins.
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| 44. |
- Fasth, Tobias, et al.
(författare)
-
Admissibility concepts for group portfolio decision analysis
- 2013
-
Ingår i: Group Decision and Negotiation (GND) 2013: International Conference. - Stockholm : Department of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University. - 9789163734908 ; , s. 445-448
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present complementary decision evaluation methods for group portfolio multi-criteria decision analysis where stakeholders have differing preferences. The approach supports the analysis of a portfolio of actions (or projects) in the case where a large group of stakeholders have inconsistent opinions with respect to performance of each action and the criteria weights. The group of stakeholders is partitioned into two disagreeing groups based upon their views on the actions' performance levels and the portfolio is analyzed using a measure of consensus taking opinions of each stakeholder into account.
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| 45. |
- Fasth, Tobias, 1980-
(författare)
-
Decision Analysis in Situations with Conflicting Interests
- 2019
-
Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Decision problems in participatory decision making involve multiple stakeholders, who often have conflicting preferences concerning the actions under consideration. Decision problems such as these can be structured as multi-criteria problems, which enables the actions to be evaluated in terms of more than one single criterion. In these situations, the complexity of the problem increases when the objective is to select a portfolio of actions. Another aspect to take into consideration is that the choice of actions often has a long-term impact on the lives of the stakeholders. It is therefore not surprising that these problems often are sources of costly and time-consuming conflicts.This thesis presents artifacts in the form of methods and applications aiding the decision maker in participatory decision making problems in highlighting stakeholder conflict. The artifacts are DANCE, XPLOR, POLA, and SENS. DANCE is a framework of methods that are used to elicit preferences, and to measure and analyze conflicts between and within stakeholder groups regarding the performance of an action. The framework uses three novel artifacts: i) CAR-CE a method for preference elicitation, ii) two indices, one for measuring the conflict within one stakeholder group, one for measuring the conflict between two stakeholder groups, and iii) an approach to portfolio optimisation and robustness analysis. XPLOR is a web-application that is used to explore and visualise stakeholder conflicts. POLA is a web-application for evaluating commercial development policy in cooperation with key stakeholders. The last artifact, SENSE, is a method for sensitivity analysis of portfolios.The artifact development followed the design science methodology, where the aim of the artifact is to solve a practical problem and where, in this case, the artifacts were evaluated against a set of requirements. The preference elicitation method, CAR-CE, was implemented in a web-questionnaire and was used in a real-world survey in cooperation with Upplands Väsby municipality. The elicited preferences were used in illustrative scenarios to demonstrate both the DANCE framework and XPLOR. POLA was demonstrated in three examples based on results from workshops that were conducted together with the municipalities of Norrköping, Katrineholm and Filipstad. Altogether, these artifacts support decision makers in modeling and analyzing decision problems, with the purpose of avoiding future costly and time-consuming conflicts in land use planning.
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| 46. |
- Fasth, Tobias, et al.
(författare)
-
Disagreement Constrained Action Selection in Participatory Portfolio Decision Analysis
- 2016
-
Ingår i: International Journal of Innovation, Management and Technology. - : EJournal Publishing. - 2010-0248. ; 7:1, s. 1-7
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In some portfolio decision problems it is not possible or interesting to constrain portfolios with a monetary budget. Instead it might be of interest to investigate how disagreement among a group of decision makers or stakeholders can be used as a constraint, and how this affects the portfolio composition. In this paper we present complementary decision evaluation methods for group portfolio decision analysis in situations where the stakeholders have conflicting preferences. The approach supports the analysis of a portfolio of planned actions in urban planning when a large group of stakeholders have inconsistent opinions with respect to the performance of each action. The group of stakeholders is, for each criterion, partitioned into two disagreeing groups based upon their views on the actions' performance. The distance between these two groups is then measured. An action's aggregated disagreement taking into account all criteria is then used as the action's associated resource constraint, and portfolios can be generated by solving a sequence of Knapsack problems. The robustness of the portfolios can be further evaluated with an a priori sensitivity analysis. The suggested approach supports decision makers by elucidating how the portfolio composition changes when the actions' aggregated disagreement increases.
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| 47. |
- Fasth, Tobias, et al.
(författare)
-
Measuring Conflicts Using Cardinal Ranking : An Application to Decision Analytic Conflict Evaluations
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Advances in Operations Research. - : Hindawi Publishing Corporation. - 1687-9147 .- 1687-9155. ; 2018
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- One of the core complexities involved in evaluating decision alternatives in the area of public decision-making is to deal with conflicts. The stakeholders affected by and involved in the decision often have conflicting preferences regarding the actions under consideration. For an executive authority, these differences of opinion can be problematic, during both implementation and communication, even though the decision is rational with respect to an attribute set perceived to represent social welfare. It is therefore important to involve the stakeholders in the process and to get an understanding of their preferences. Otherwise, the stakeholder disagreement can lead to costly conflicts. One way of approaching this problem is to provide means for comprehensive, yet effective stakeholder preference elicitation methods, where the stakeholders can state their preferences with respect to actions part of the current agenda of a government. In this paper we contribute two supporting methods: (i) an application of the cardinal ranking (CAR) method for preference elicitation for conflict evaluations and (ii) two conflict indices for measuring stakeholder conflicts. The application of the CAR method utilizes a do nothing alternative to differentiate between positive and negative actions. The elicited preferences can then be used as input to the two conflict indices indicating the level of conflict within a stakeholder group or between two stakeholder groups. The contributed methods are demonstrated in a real-life example carried out in the municipality of Upplands Väsby, Sweden. We show how a questionnaire can be used to elicit preferences with CAR and how the indices can be used to semantically describe the level of consensus and conflict regarding a certain attribute. As such, we show how the methods can provide decision aid in the clarification of controversies.
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| 48. |
- Fasth, Tobias, et al.
(författare)
-
On the Use of ISO 2859 Sampling by Attributes as Quality Control of Cleared Land in Humanitarian Demining
- 2012
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In the International Mine Action Standards (IMAS) standards for mine actions are defined. One of these describes how quality control is conducted. The inspections and sampling of cleared land are based on the ISO 2859 standard. This standard uses sampling by attributes, i.e. a sample is taken from a lot of produced units andthe lot is rejected if the number of non-conforming items exceeds a threshold. In this report the criticism levelled against ISO 2859 is investigated and particularly the cost and informative value of using ISO 2859 as it is being applied through IMAS. A quantitative investigation of the sampling plans specified in IMAS indicate that the value of sampling is highly dependent on the size of the lot andthe actual quality level and that the sampling plans are not optimal. If samplingshould be conducted seen from a cost perspective taking its informative value into account, this value is highly dependent on the expected quality of clearance, to what degree this quality is uncertain, and the lot size. The IMAS is inflexibletowards this and is not well calibrated in order to weigh the informative value ofsampling against its costs. We therefore propose a revision of IMAS 09.20 facilitating a more cost effective approach to sampling and quality control. Of importance would be to relatethe cost of sampling to opportunity costs such as performing clearance. This may also consider how to distribute the cost of sampling across cost carriers, stimulating the clearance organisations to obtain and maintain a high quality. Further, it isnot clear how to account for both the producer’s and the consumer’s risk in terms of quality in the mine action domain. Investigating methods for aggregating thesein a model for identifying a feasible sampling plan might be valuable in order to perform cost effective quality control while maintaining the objective of releasingsafe land.
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| 49. |
- Fasth, Tobias, et al.
(författare)
-
Portfolio Decision Analysis for Evaluating Stakeholder Conflicts in Land Use Planning
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Group Decision and Negotiation. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0926-2644 .- 1572-9907. ; 29:2, s. 321-343
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Urban planning typically involves multiple actors and stakeholders with conflicting opinions and diverging preferences. The proposed development plans and actions greatly affect the quality of life of the local community at different spatial scales and time horizons. Consequently, it is important for decision-makers to understand and analyse the conflicting needs and priorities of the local community. This paper presents a decision analytic framework for evaluating stakeholder conflicts in urban planning. First, the stakeholders state their preferences regarding the actions in terms of a set of criteria and estimate the weight of each criterion. Then, a conflict index and overall value for each action is calculated. Next, a set of Pareto efficient portfolios of actions are generated by solving an optimization problem with different levels of conflict as a resource constraint. Finally, a sensitivity analysis of the actions is performed. The framework is demonstrated using real-world survey data collected in the municipality of Upplands Väsby, Sweden.
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| 50. |
- Fasth, Tobias, et al.
(författare)
-
Portfolio Decision Analysis in Vague Domains
- 2012
-
Ingår i: Proceedings of the 2012 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management. - : IEEE Computer Society. - 9781467329446 ; , s. 61-65
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Portfolio Decision Analysis (PDA) is applicable in many domains and is therefore an important part of Decision Analysis (DA). PDA enables the identification of a preferred portfolio of alternatives instead of a single alternative, which is the typical case in traditional DA. The DELTA framework for interval decision analysis enables a decision maker to model and evaluate decision problems in vague domains with imprecise information, however, it does not support PDA. This paper presents an extension of the DELTA method so that portfolio decision problems can be modelled and evaluated within that framework. The extension is based on a set of reasonable requirements, and an evaluation of the PDA methods PROBE, RPM and Equity.
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