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  • Andersson Schwarz, Jonas, et al. (författare)
  • A Platform Society
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Developing Platform Economies : A European Policy Landscape - A European Policy Landscape. - 9789187379512 ; , s. 114-140
  • Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • This chapter seeks to define the developing platform economy from a societal perspective, including the aspect of proprietorship, which forms a challenge both regarding transparency and accountability, but also fundamental aspects of datafication, scalability, automation, centralisation, and commercialisation.The societal effects of a few platform-based corporations (Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft) are analysed, including the relationship to smaller, newer, platform-based companies that occasionally try to compete with them while often being dependent on them, or getting acquired. The importance of studying the type pf business model on which a platform’s growth or administration is based is here argued for, in order to be able to understand the logics of its growth, for example into multiple branches. Not only does an increasing number of social sectors and industries become dominated by digitally originated platform operators; also traditional institutional actors are increasingly adopting data-driven platform logics – utilising and analysing consumer data in order to predict particular outcomes in order to automate and outsource decision-making.
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  • Fullman, N., et al. (författare)
  • Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1423-1459
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. Methods We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2.5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97.5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. Findings Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56.7 (IQR 31.9-66.8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86.8, 95% uncertainty interval 84.6-88.9), Iceland (86.0, 84.1-87.6), and Sweden (85.6, 81.8-87.8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10.9, 9.6-11.9), the Central African Republic (11.0, 8.8-13.8), and Somalia (11.3, 9.5-13.1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2-8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations. Copyright The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article published under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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  • Gakidou, E., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1345-1422
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2016. This study included 481 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk (RR) and exposure estimates from 22 717 randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources, according to the GBD 2016 source counting methods. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. Finally, we explored four drivers of trends in attributable burden: population growth, population ageing, trends in risk exposure, and all other factors combined. Findings Since 1990, exposure increased significantly for 30 risks, did not change significantly for four risks, and decreased significantly for 31 risks. Among risks that are leading causes of burden of disease, child growth failure and household air pollution showed the most significant declines, while metabolic risks, such as body-mass index and high fasting plasma glucose, showed significant increases. In 2016, at Level 3 of the hierarchy, the three leading risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs at the global level for men were smoking (124.1 million DALYs [95% UI 111.2 million to 137.0 million]), high systolic blood pressure (122.2 million DALYs [110.3 million to 133.3 million], and low birthweight and short gestation (83.0 million DALYs [78.3 million to 87.7 million]), and for women, were high systolic blood pressure (89.9 million DALYs [80.9 million to 98.2 million]), high body-mass index (64.8 million DALYs [44.4 million to 87.6 million]), and high fasting plasma glucose (63.8 million DALYs [53.2 million to 76.3 million]). In 2016 in 113 countries, the leading risk factor in terms of attributable DALYs was a metabolic risk factor. Smoking remained among the leading five risk factors for DALYs for 109 countries, while low birthweight and short gestation was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 38 countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. In terms of important drivers of change in trends of burden attributable to risk factors, between 2006 and 2016 exposure to risks explains an 9.3% (6.9-11.6) decline in deaths and a 10.8% (8.3-13.1) decrease in DALYs at the global level, while population ageing accounts for 14.9% (12.7-17.5) of deaths and 6.2% (3.9-8.7) of DALYs, and population growth for 12.4% (10.1-14.9) of deaths and 12.4% (10.1-14.9) of DALYs. The largest contribution of trends in risk exposure to disease burden is seen between ages 1 year and 4 years, where a decline of 27.3% (24.9-29.7) of the change in DALYs between 2006 and 2016 can be attributed to declines in exposure to risks. Interpretation Increasingly detailed understanding of the trends in risk exposure and the RRs for each risk-outcome pair provide insights into both the magnitude of health loss attributable to risks and how modification of risk exposure has contributed to health trends. Metabolic risks warrant particular policy attention, due to their large contribution to global disease burden, increasing trends, and variable patterns across countries at the same level of development. GBD 2016 findings show that, while it has huge potential to improve health, risk modification has played a relatively small part in the past decade. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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  • Lozano, Rafael, et al. (författare)
  • Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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  • Ludvigsson, Jonas F., 1969-, et al. (författare)
  • Inflammatory bowel disease and risk of severe COVID-19 : A nationwide population-based cohort study in Sweden
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: United European Gastroenterology journal. - : Sage Publications. - 2050-6406 .- 2050-6414. ; 9:2, s. 177-192
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: There are concerns that individuals with chronic immune-mediated diseases are at increased risk of COVID-19 and related severe adverse outcome, including intensive care admission or death. We aimed to explore the absolute and relative risk of severe COVID-19 in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD).METHODS: This population-based cohort study used nationwide registers in Sweden, with 67,292 individuals with a diagnosis of IBD 1969-2017 (Crohn's disease, n = 21,599; ulcerative colitis: n = 43,622; IBD-unclassified: n = 2071) and alive on 1 February 2020. Patients with IBD were matched to up to five controls from the general population (n = 297,910). Cox regression estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for (i) hospital admission with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 as the primary diagnosis, and (ii) severe COVID-19 (composite outcome consisting of (a) COVID-19 intensive care admission, or (b) death from COVID-19 or (c) death within 30 days of COVID-19 hospital admission), were calculated. Analyses were conditioned on age, sex, calendar period, and county and adjusted for other comorbidities.RESULTS: Between 1 February and 31 July 2020, 179 (0.27%) IBD patients and 500 (0.17%) general population controls were admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (adjusted HR [aHR] = 1.43; 95% CI = 1.19-1.72). The corresponding numbers for severe COVID-19 was 65 (0.10%) and 183 (0.06%; aHR = 1.11; 95% CI = 0.81-1.52). Adjusted HRs were similar in Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis. In a propensity score-matched model taking comorbidity into account until 2016, the increased risk for COVID-19 hospital admission remained (aHR = 1.32; 1.12-1.56), but there was no increased risk of severe COVID-19 (aHR = 1.12; 0.85-1.47).CONCLUSIONS: While individuals with IBD were more likely to be admitted to hospital for COVID-19 than the general population, the risk of severe COVID-19 was not higher.
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  • Naghavi, M., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1151-1210
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Monitoring levels and trends in premature mortality is crucial to understanding how societies can address prominent sources of early death. The Global Burden of Disease 2016 Study (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 264 causes in 195 locations from 1980 to 2016. This assessment includes evaluation of the expected epidemiological transition with changes in development and where local patterns deviate from these trends. Methods We estimated cause-specific deaths and years of life lost (YLLs) by age, sex, geography, and year. YLLs were calculated from the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. We used the GBD cause of death database composed of: vital registration (VR) data corrected for under-registration and garbage coding; national and subnational verbal autopsy (VA) studies corrected for garbage coding; and other sources including surveys and surveillance systems for specific causes such as maternal mortality. To facilitate assessment of quality, we reported on the fraction of deaths assigned to GBD Level 1 or Level 2 causes that cannot be underlying causes of death (major garbage codes) by location and year. Based on completeness, garbage coding, cause list detail, and time periods covered, we provided an overall data quality rating for each location with scores ranging from 0 stars (worst) to 5 stars (best). We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to generate estimates for each location, year, age, and sex. We assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific deaths in relation to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of average income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility, with locations grouped into quintiles by SDI. Relative to GBD 2015, we expanded the GBD cause hierarchy by 18 causes of death for GBD 2016. Findings The quality of available data varied by location. Data quality in 25 countries rated in the highest category (5 stars), while 48, 30, 21, and 44 countries were rated at each of the succeeding data quality levels. Vital registration or verbal autopsy data were not available in 27 countries, resulting in the assignment of a zero value for data quality. Deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represented 72.3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 71.2-73.2) of deaths in 2016 with 19.3% (18.5-20.4) of deaths in that year occurring from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases and a further 8.43% (8.00-8.67) from injuries. Although age-standardised rates of death from NCDs decreased globally between 2006 and 2016, total numbers of these deaths increased; both numbers and age-standardised rates of death from CMNN causes decreased in the decade 2006-16-age-standardised rates of deaths from injuries decreased but total numbers varied little. In 2016, the three leading global causes of death in children under-5 were lower respiratory infections, neonatal preterm birth complications, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma, combined resulting in 1.80 million deaths (95% UI 1.59 million to 1.89 million). Between 1990 and 2016, a profound shift toward deaths at older ages occurred with a 178% (95% UI 176-181) increase in deaths in ages 90-94 years and a 210% (208-212) increase in deaths older than age 95 years. The ten leading causes by rates of age-standardised YLL significantly decreased from 2006 to 2016 (median annualised rate of change was a decrease of 2.89%); the median annualised rate of change for all other causes was lower (a decrease of 1.59%) during the same interval. Globally, the five leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were cardiovascular diseases; diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; neoplasms; neonatal disorders; and HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. At a finer level of disaggregation within cause groupings, the ten leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, road injuries, malaria, neonatal preterm birth complications, HIV/AIDS, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of total YLLs in 113 countries for men and 97 countries for women. Comparisons of observed levels of YLLs by countries, relative to the level of YLLs expected on the basis of SDI alone, highlighted distinct regional patterns including the greater than expected level of YLLs from malaria and from HIV/AIDS across sub-Saharan Africa; diabetes mellitus, especially in Oceania; interpersonal violence, notably within Latin America and the Caribbean; and cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, particularly in eastern and central Europe. The level of YLLs from ischaemic heart disease was less than expected in 117 of 195 locations. Other leading causes of YLLs for which YLLs were notably lower than expected included neonatal preterm birth complications in many locations in both south Asia and southeast Asia, and cerebrovascular disease in western Europe. Interpretation The past 37 years have featured declining rates of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases across all quintiles of SDI, with faster than expected gains for many locations relative to their SDI. A global shift towards deaths at older ages suggests success in reducing many causes of early death. YLLs have increased globally for causes such as diabetes mellitus or some neoplasms, and in some locations for causes such as drug use disorders, and conflict and terrorism. Increasing levels of YLLs might reflect outcomes from conditions that required high levels of care but for which effective treatments remain elusive, potentially increasing costs to health systems. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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  • Wang, H. D., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1084-1150
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. Methods We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0.5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. Findings Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86.9 years (95% UI 86.7-87.2), and for men in Singapore, at 81.3 years (78.8-83.7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016. Interpretation Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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  • Ahrné, Karin, et al. (författare)
  • Tillstånd och trender för arter och deras livsmiljöer – rödlistade arter i Sverige 2015
  • 2015
  • Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • 2015 års upplaga av den svenska rödlistan är den fjärde i ordningen. Den är baserad på IUCN:s rödlistningskriterier och revideras vart femte år. I rödlistan bedöms risken som enskilda arter av djur, växter och svampar löper att försvinna från Sverige. Bedömningen utförs av ArtDatabankens medarbetare i samverkan med över 100 externa experter, indelade i 14 expertkommittéer för olika organismgrupper. Under arbetet med 2015 års rödlista har tillstånd och trender bedömts för 21 600 arter och 1 318 lägre taxa (apomiktiska arter, underarter och varieteter), sammanlagt ca 22 900 taxa. Av de bedömda arterna klassificerades 2 029 som hotade (kategorierna CR, EN och VU) och 4 273 som rödlistade (inkluderar även kategorierna NT, RE och DD). Förhållandet mellan antalet rödlistade och antalet bedömda arter ar 19,8 %, vilket är ungefär samma värde som 2010 och 2005. I denna rapport jämförs antalet och andelen rödlistade arter mellan olika organismgrupper, biotoper, substrat och påverkansfaktorer. Texten ar indelad i en allmän del och åtta kapitel inriktade på olika landskapstyper. Landskapstyperna utgör en grov indelning av landets miljöer enligt följande kategorier: Skog, Jordbrukslandskap, Urbana miljöer, Fjäll, Våtmarker, Sötvatten, Havsstränder och Havsmiljöer. Skogen och jordbrukslandskapet är de artrikaste landskapstyperna med 1 800 respektive 1 400 arter som har en stark anknytning dit, och ytterligare flera hundra arter som förekommer där mer sporadiskt. De faktorer som påverkar flest rödlistade arter i Sverige är skogsavverkning och igenväxning, som båda utgör ett hot mot vardera ca 30 % av de rödlistade arterna. Avverkning minskar arealen av skog där naturliga strukturer och naturlig dynamik upprätthålls, och den orsakar därmed förlust av livsmiljöer. Igenväxning orsakas av ett antal faktorer, bland annat upphörande hävd (bete och slåtter), gödsling, trädplantering och brist på naturliga störningsregimer som t.ex. regelbundna översvämningar kring vattendrag och sjöar. Andra viktiga påverkansfaktorer är fiske, torrläggning av våtmarker, tillbakagång hos värdarter (främst alm och ask som drabbats av invasiva svampsjukdomar), klimatförändringar och konkurrens från invasiva arter. IUCN:s rödlisteindex beräknas för ett urval av de bedömda organismgrupperna. Rödlisteindex visar att skillnaderna mellan rödlistorna från 2000, 2005, 2010 och 2015 är små. Ett par undantag finns dock. Groddjur och stora däggdjur har fått en något förbättrad situation sedan 2000. Totalt förefaller det ändå som att trycket mot Sveriges artstock har förblivit relativt konstant under de senaste 15 åren.
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19.
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20.
  • Barber, R. M., et al. (författare)
  • Healthcare access and quality index based on mortality from causes amenable to personal health care in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015 : A novel analysis from the global burden of disease study 2015
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Lancet Publishing Group. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10091, s. 231-266
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. Methods We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure-the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index-on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r=0·88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r=0·83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r=0·77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time. Findings Between 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28·6 to 94·6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among lowest-SDI countries. While the global HAQ Index average rose from 40·7 (95% uncertainty interval, 39·0-42·8) in 1990 to 53·7 (52·2-55·4) in 2015, far less progress occurred in narrowing the gap between observed HAQ Index values and maximum levels achieved; at the global level, the difference between the observed and frontier HAQ Index only decreased from 21·2 in 1990 to 20·1 in 2015. If every country and territory had achieved the highest observed HAQ Index by their corresponding level of SDI, the global average would have been 73·8 in 2015. Several countries, particularly in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa, reached HAQ Index values similar to or beyond their development levels, whereas others, namely in southern sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and south Asia, lagged behind what geographies of similar development attained between 1990 and 2015. Interpretation This novel extension of the GBD Study shows the untapped potential for personal health-care access and quality improvement across the development spectrum. Amid substantive advances in personal health care at the national level, heterogeneous patterns for individual causes in given countries or territories suggest that few places have consistently achieved optimal health-care access and quality across health-system functions and therapeutic areas. This is especially evident in middle-SDI countries, many of which have recently undergone or are currently experiencing epidemiological transitions. The HAQ Index, if paired with other measures of health-system characteristics such as intervention coverage, could provide a robust avenue for tracking progress on universal health coverage and identifying local priorities for strengthening personal health-care quality and access throughout the world. Copyright © The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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21.
  • Bertoni, Alessandro, 1985-, et al. (författare)
  • Mining data to design value : a demonstrator in early design
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: DS87-7 PROCEEDINGS OF THE 21ST INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON ENGINEERING DESIGN (ICED 17), VOL 7: DESIGN THEORY AND RESEARCH METHODOLOGY. - : The Design Society. - 9781904670957 ; , s. 21-29
  • Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The paper presents a study run to verify the applicability of data mining algorithms asdecision support in early design stages of a product development project. The paperdescribes a two-stage scenario providing the rationale for the application of data science inengineering design. Furthermore, it describes a demonstrator showing how data can be fedback to the early design stages and can be used to populate models to reduce uncertainty indecision making. A wheel loader for constructions works is the reference product for thedemonstration. Data mining is applied on a dataset built on machine performances andcontextual and environmental data. The demonstrator focuses on the estimation of the fuelconsumption of alternative design concepts and estimates the performance variations givendifferent contextual variable. Finally, a way of visualizing the results of the data analysis inrelation to the tested and expected performances is presented.
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23.
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24.
  • Björnsson, Jon Mar, et al. (författare)
  • Reduced proliferative capacity of hematopoietic stem cells deficient in hoxb3 and hoxb4
  • 2003
  • Ingår i: Blood. - 0006-4971 .- 1528-0020. ; 23:11, s. 3872-3883
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Several homeobox transcription factors, such as HOXB3 and HOXB4, have been implicated in regulation of hematopoiesis. In support of this, studies show that overexpression of HOXB4 strongly enhances hematopoietic stem cell regeneration. Here we find that mice deficient in both Hoxb3 and Hoxb4 have defects in endogenous hematopoiesis with reduced cellularity in hematopoietic organs and diminished number of hematopoietic progenitors without perturbing lineage commitment. Analysis of embryonic day 14.5 fetal livers revealed a significant reduction in the hematopoietic stem cell pool, suggesting that the reduction in cellularity observed postnatally is due to insufficient expansion during fetal development. Primitive Lin(-) Scal(+) c-kit(+) hematopoietic progenitors lacking Hoxb3 and Hoxb4 displayed impaired proliferative capacity in vitro. Similarly, in vivo repopulating studies of Hoxb3/Hoxb4-deficient hematopoietic cells resulted in lower repopulating capability compared to normal littermates. Since no defects in homing were observed, these results suggest a slower regeneration of mutant HSC. Furthermore, treatment with cytostatic drugs demonstrated slower cell cycle kinetics of hematopoietic stem cells deficient in Hoxb3 and Hoxb4, resulting in increased tolerance to antimitotic drugs. Collectively, these data suggest a direct physiological role of Hoxb4 and Hoxb3 in regulating stem cell regeneration and that these genes are required for maximal proliferative response.
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25.
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26.
  • Burstein, R., et al. (författare)
  • Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Nature. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 574:7778, s. 353-358
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations. © 2019, The Author(s).
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27.
  • Butwicka, Agnieszka, et al. (författare)
  • Association of Childhood-Onset Inflammatory Bowel Disease With Risk of Psychiatric Disorders and Suicide Attempt
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: JAMA pediatrics. - : American Medical Association. - 2168-6203 .- 2168-6211. ; 173:10, s. 969-978
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Importance: Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) has been associated with psychiatric morbidity in adults, although previous studies have not accounted for familial confounding. In children, IBD has an even more severe course, but the association between childhood-onset IBD and psychiatric morbidity remains unclear.Objective: To examine the risk of psychiatric morbidity in individuals with childhood-onset IBD, controlling for potential confounding shared between siblings.Design, Setting, and Participants: A population-based cohort study was conducted using data from the Swedish national health care and population registers of all children younger than 18 years born from 1973 to 2013. The study included 6464 individuals with a diagnosis of childhood-onset IBD (3228 with ulcerative colitis, 2536 with Crohn disease, and 700 with IBD unclassified) who were compared with 323 200 matched reference individuals from the general population and 6999 siblings of patients with IBD. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs. Statistical analysis was performed from January 1, 1973, to December 1, 2013.Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was any psychiatric disorder and suicide attempt. Secondary outcomes were the following specific psychiatric disorders: psychotic, mood, anxiety, eating, personality, and behavioral disorders; substance misuse; attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder; autism spectrum disorders; and intellectual disability.Results: The study included 6464 individuals with a diagnosis of childhood-onset IBD (2831 girls and 3633 boys; mean [SD] age at diagnosis of IBD, 13 [4] years). During a median follow-up time of 9 years, 1117 individuals with IBD (17.3%) received a diagnosis of any psychiatric disorder (incidence rate, 17.1 per 1000 person-years), compared with 38 044 of 323 200 individuals (11.8%) in the general population (incidence rate, 11.2 per 1000 person-years), corresponding to an HR of 1.6 (95% CI, 1.5-1.7), equaling 1 extra case of any psychiatric disorder per 170 person-years. Inflammatory bowel disease was significantly associated with suicide attempt (HR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.2-1.7) as well as mood disorders (HR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.4-1.7), anxiety disorders (HR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.7-2.0) eating disorders (HR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.3-2.0), personality disorders (HR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.1-1.8), attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (HR, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.1-1.4), and autism spectrum disorders (HR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.1-1.7) Results were similar for boys and girls. Hazard ratios for any psychiatric disorder were highest in the first year of follow-up but remained statistically significant after more than 5 years. Psychiatric disorders were particularly common for patients with very early-onset IBD (<6 years) and for patients with a parental psychiatric history. Results were largely confirmed by sibling comparison, with similar estimates noted for any psychiatric disorder (HR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.5-1.8) and suicide attempt (HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.2-2.3).Conclusions and Relevance: Overall, childhood-onset IBD was associated with psychiatric morbidity, confirmed by between-sibling results. Particularly concerning is the increased risk of suicide attempt, suggesting that long-term psychological support be considered for patients with childhood-onset IBD.
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28.
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29.
  • Chanda Nagarajan, Pratheeba, 1978, et al. (författare)
  • Turbulent uniformity fluctuations in automotive catalysts – A RANS vs DES assessment
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Results in Engineering. - : Elsevier BV. - 2590-1230. ; 16
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Attaining sufficient flow uniformity in catalytic aftertreatment systems is a major challenge for the automotive industry. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations offer means of analyzing and quantifying this flow uniformity in silico. In this work, predictions from numerical simulations of flow uniformity obtained using a conventional steady-state Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) approach are contrasted against comprehensive Detached Eddy Simulations (DES) where the large-scale turbulence is resolved in space and time. It is shown that the DES approach provides access to data on flow uniformity fluctuations that could be significant for the catalyst light-off behavior. However, the computational cost of the DES is approximately three orders of magnitude larger than that of the corresponding RANS simulation.
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30.
  • Cousin, E., et al. (författare)
  • Diabetes mortality and trends before 25 years of age: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology. - : Elsevier BV. - 2213-8587. ; 10:3, s. 177-192
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Diabetes, particularly type 1 diabetes, at younger ages can be a largely preventable cause of death with the correct health care and services. We aimed to evaluate diabetes mortality and trends at ages younger than 25 years globally using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Methods We used estimates of GBD 2019 to calculate international diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years in 1990 and 2019. Data sources for causes of death were obtained from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and other surveillance systems for 1990-2019. We estimated death rates for each location using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed the association of age-standardised death rates per 100 000 population with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a measure of universal health coverage (UHC) and described the variability within SDI quintiles. We present estimates with their 95% uncertainty intervals. Findings In 2019, 16 300 (95% uncertainty interval 14 200 to 18 900) global deaths due to diabetes (type 1 and 2 combined) occurred in people younger than 25 years and 73.7% (68.3 to 77.4) were classified as due to type 1 diabetes. The age-standardised death rate was 0.50 (0.44 to 0.58) per 100 000 population, and 15 900 (97.5%) of these deaths occurred in low to high-middle SDI countries. The rate was 0.13 (0.12 to 0.14) per 100 000 population in the high SDI quintile, 0.60 (0.51 to 0.70) per 100 000 population in the low-middle SDI quintile, and 0.71 (0.60 to 0.86) per 100 000 population in the low SDI quintile. Within SDI quintiles, we observed large variability in rates across countries, in part explained by the extent of UHC (r(2)=0.62). From 1990 to 2019, age-standardised death rates decreased globally by 17.0% (-28.4 to -2.9) for all diabetes, and by 21.0% (-33.0 to -5.9) when considering only type 1 diabetes. However, the low SDI quintile had the lowest decline for both all diabetes (-13.6% [-28.4 to 3.4]) and for type 1 diabetes (-13.6% [-29.3 to 8.9]). Interpretation Decreasing diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years remains an important challenge, especially in low and low-middle SDI countries. Inadequate diagnosis and treatment of diabetes is likely to be major contributor to these early deaths, highlighting the urgent need to provide better access to insulin and basic diabetes education and care. This mortality metric, derived from readily available and frequently updated GBD data, can help to monitor preventable diabetes-related deaths over time globally, aligned with the UN's Sustainable Development Targets, and serve as an indicator of the adequacy of basic diabetes care for type 1 and type 2 diabetes across nations. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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31.
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32.
  • Filla, Reno, 1973- (författare)
  • Operator and Machine Models for Dynamic Simulation of Construction Machinery
  • 2005
  • Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • VIRTUAL PROTOTYPING has been generally adopted in product development in order to minimise the traditional reliance on testing of physical prototypes. It thus constitutes a major step towards solving the conflict of actual increasing development cost and time due to increasing customer demands on one side, and the need to decrease development cost and time due to increasing competition on the other. Particularly challenging for the off-road equipment industry is that its products, working machines, are complex in architecture. Tightly coupled, non-linear sub-systems of different technical domains make prediction and optimisation of the complete system’s dynamic behaviour difficult.Furthermore, in working machines the human operator is essential for the performance of the total system. Properties such as productivity, fuel efficiency, and operability are all not only dependent on inherent machine properties and working place conditions, but also on how the operator uses the machine. This is an aspect that is traditionally neglected in dynamic simulations, because the modelling needs to be extended beyond the technical system.The research presented in this thesis focuses on wheel loaders, which are representative for working machines. The technical system and the influence of the human operator is analysed, and so-called short loading cycles are described in depth. Two approaches to rule-based simulation models of a wheel loader operator are presented and used in simulations. Both operator models control the machine model by means of engine throttle, lift and tilt lever, steering wheel, and brake only – just as a human operator does. Also, only signals that a human operator can sense are used in the models. It is demonstrated that both operator models are able to adapt to basic variations in workplace setup and machine capability. Thus, a “human element” can be introduced into dynamic simulation of working machines, giving more relevant answers with respect to operator-influenced complete-machine properties such as productivity, fuel efficiency, and operability already in the concept phase of the product development process.
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34.
  • Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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35.
  • Fullman, N., et al. (författare)
  • Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier BV. - 0140-6736. ; 391:10136, s. 2236-2271
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016. Methods Drawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0-100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita. Findings In 2016, HAQ Index performance spanned from a high of 97.1 (95% UI 95.8-98.1) in Iceland, followed by 96.6 (94.9-97.9) in Norway and 96.1 (94.5-97.3) in the Netherlands, to values as low as 18.6 (13.1-24.4) in the Central African Republic, 19.0 (14.3-23.7) in Somalia, and 23.4 (20.2-26.8) in Guinea-Bissau. The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between 1990 and 2000. Striking subnational disparities emerged in personal health-care access and quality, with China and India having particularly large gaps between locations with the highest and lowest scores in 2016. In China, performance ranged from 91.5 (89.1-936) in Beijing to 48.0 (43.4-53.2) in Tibet (a 43.5-point difference), while India saw a 30.8-point disparity, from 64.8 (59.6-68.8) in Goa to 34.0 (30.3-38.1) in Assam. Japan recorded the smallest range in subnational HAQ performance in 2016 (a 4.8-point difference), whereas differences between subnational locations with the highest and lowest HAQ Index values were more than two times as high for the USA and three times as high for England. State-level gaps in the HAQ Index in Mexico somewhat narrowed from 1990 to 2016 (from a 20.9-point to 17.0-point difference), whereas in Brazil, disparities slightly increased across states during this time (a 17.2-point to 20.4-point difference). Performance on the HAQ Index showed strong linkages to overall development, with high and high-middle SDI countries generally having higher scores and faster gains for non-communicable diseases. Nonetheless, countries across the development spectrum saw substantial gains in some key health service areas from 2000 to 2016, most notably vaccine-preventable diseases. Overall, national performance on the HAQ Index was positively associated with higher levels of total health spending per capita, as well as health systems inputs, but these relationships were quite heterogeneous, particularly among low-to-middle SDI countries. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides a more detailed understanding of past success and current challenges in improving personal health-care access and quality worldwide. Despite substantial gains since 2000, many low-SDI and middle-SDI countries face considerable challenges unless heightened policy action and investments focus on advancing access to and quality of health care across key health services, especially non-communicable diseases. Stagnating or minimal improvements experienced by several low-middle to high-middle SDI countries could reflect the complexities of re-orienting both primary and secondary health-care services beyond the more limited foci of the Millennium Development Goals. Alongside initiatives to strengthen public health programmes, the pursuit of universal health coverage upon improving both access and quality worldwide, and thus requires adopting a more comprehensive view and subsequent provision of quality health care for all populations. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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36.
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37.
  • Griswold, Max G., et al. (författare)
  • Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 392:10152, s. 1015-1035
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.Methods: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.Findings: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week.Interpretation: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.
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38.
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39.
  • Hay, S. I., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Lancet Publishing Group. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1260-1344
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Methods: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE difered from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate. Findings: The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9-78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8-75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0-49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0-44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97-6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74-6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08-6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61-1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69-2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2·3% [-5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs ofset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the fve lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally. Interpretation: At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs ofset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention eforts, and development assistance for health, including fnancial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support. © The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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40.
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41.
  • Kamb, Anneli, 1987, et al. (författare)
  • Klimatpåverkan från svenska befolkningens internationella flygresor. Metodutveckling och resultat för 1990 – 2014
  • 2016
  • Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • Flygets klimatpåverkan är stor och ökande för rika länder som Sverige. Dagens produktionsbaserade uppföljningssystem bygger på hur mycket flygplanen tankar i respektive land (bunkring) och återspeglar bara utsläppen till första mellanlandning. I denna rapport utvecklas en beräkningsmetod som återspeglar utsläppen från den svenska befolkningens internationella flygresor. Metodiken appliceras sedan för tidsperioden 1990-2014 med hjälp av både resvaneundersökningar och totalstatistik. Beräkningarna visar att antalet internationella resor som svenska invånare gör har ökat med 130 % från 1990 till 2014. Den genomsnittliga flygsträckan för en tur-och-retur-resa har emellertid inte förändrats avsevärt under tidsperioden. Utsläppen per person-km har dock minskat med 37 % mellan 1990 och 2014. År 2014 var utsläppen 190g CO2-ekvivalenter per person-km. En betydande andel av denna effektivisering kan tillskrivas en ökning av kabinfaktorn. De totala utsläppen från svenska invånares internationella flygresor ökade drastiskt 1993-2000, fluktuerade kring samma nivå under perioden 2000-2009, för att sedan åter öka från 2010. När effekterna av utsläpp på hög höjd inkluderas så närmar sig utsläppen 11 Mt CO2-ekvivalenter för 2014 vilket ungefär motsvarar utsläppen från alla personbilstransporter i Sverige. Utvecklingen av utsläpp från flyget kan jämföras med de totala klimatpåverkande utsläppen som Sverige orsakar. Medan utsläppen från svenska invånares internationella flygresor har ökat med 61 % sedan 1990 så har Sveriges officiellt rapporterade totala utsläpp från samtliga sektorer minskat med 24 %. Utan effektiva klimatstyrmedel för flyget riskerar utsläppen från flygandet att bli större än de totala officiella utsläppen redan år 2040.
  •  
42.
  • Kassebaum, N., et al. (författare)
  • Child and Adolescent Health From 1990 to 2015 Findings From the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2015 Study
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Jama Pediatrics. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 2168-6203 .- 2168-6211. ; 171:6, s. 573-592
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • IMPORTANCE Comprehensive and timely monitoring of disease burden in all age groups, including children and adolescents, is essential for improving population health. OBJECTIVE To quantify and describe levels and trends of mortality and nonfatal health outcomes among children and adolescents from 1990 to 2015 to provide a framework for policy discussion. EVIDENCE REVIEW Cause-specific mortality and nonfatal health outcomes were analyzed for 195 countries and territories by age group, sex, and year from 1990 to 2015 using standardized approaches for data processing and statistical modeling, with subsequent analysis of the findings to describe levels and trends across geography and time among children and adolescents 19 years or younger. A composite indicator of income, education, and fertility was developed (Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) for each geographic unit and year, which evaluates the historical association between SDI and health loss. FINDINGS Global child and adolescent mortality decreased from 14.18 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 14.09 million to 14.28 million) deaths in 1990 to 7.26 million (95% UI, 7.14 million to 7.39 million) deaths in 2015, but progress has been unevenly distributed. Countries with a lower SDI had a larger proportion of mortality burden (75%) in 2015 than was the case in 1990 (61%). Most deaths in 2015 occurred in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Global trends were driven by reductions in mortality owing to infectious, nutritional, and neonatal disorders, which in the aggregate led to a relative increase in the importance of noncommunicable diseases and injuries in explaining global disease burden. The absolute burden of disability in children and adolescents increased 4.3%(95% UI, 3.1%-5.6%) from 1990 to 2015, with much of the increase owing to population growth and improved survival for children and adolescents to older ages. Other than infectious conditions, many top causes of disability are associated with long-term sequelae of conditions present at birth (eg, neonatal disorders, congenital birth defects, and hemoglobinopathies) and complications of a variety of infections and nutritional deficiencies. Anemia, developmental intellectual disability, hearing loss, epilepsy, and vision loss are important contributors to childhood disability that can arise from multiple causes. Maternal and reproductive health remains a key cause of disease burden in adolescent females, especially in lower-SDI countries. In low-SDI countries, mortality is the primary driver of health loss for children and adolescents, whereas disability predominates in higher-SDI locations; the specific pattern of epidemiological transition varies across diseases and injuries. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Consistent international attention and investment have led to sustained improvements in causes of health loss among children and adolescents in many countries, although progress has been uneven. The persistence of infectious diseases in some countries, coupled with ongoing epidemiologic transition to injuries and noncommunicable diseases, require all countries to carefully evaluate and implement appropriate strategies to maximize the health of their children and adolescents and for the international community to carefully consider which elements of child and adolescent health should be monitored.
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43.
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44.
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45.
  • Larsson, Britt, et al. (författare)
  • The prevalences of cytochrome c oxidase negative and superpositive fibres and ragged-red fibres in the trapezius muscle of female cleaners with and without myalgia and of female healthy controls
  • 2000
  • Ingår i: Pain. - 1872-6623 .- 0304-3959. ; 84:2-3, s. 379-387
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The association of cytochrome c oxidase negative fibres (COX-negative) and ragged-red fibres (RR-fibres) with work related trapezius myalgia has been proposed. Hitherto studies have been small or without control groups. The aim of the present study was to investigate the prevalences of RR-fibres and COX-negative fibres in female cleaners with (n=25) and without (n=23) trapezius myalgia and in clinically healthy female teachers (n=21). The cleaners did mainly floor cleaning requiring monotonous loading on the trapezius muscle. A questionnaire covering background data and aspects of pain (prevalence, duration, intensity and influence on daily living) was answered. Biopsies were obtained from the trapezius muscle by an open surgical technique. The three groups did not differ in prevalence of COX-negative or COX-superpositive (i.e. type-I fibres with extremely strong brownish reaction in both the COX and SDH/COX stainings) fibres. The prevalence of COX-negative fibres was age dependent. Two subgroups of RR-fibres were present when stained for COX; COX-negative (73%) and COX-superpositive (26%) fibres. Forty-two percent of the COX-negative fibres were RR-fibres and 79% of the COX-superpositive were RR-fibres. A significantly (P=0.002) higher proportion of the COX-superpositive fibres in the cleaners were RR-fibres compared to the teachers. Multivariate regression analysis revealed that age, occupation as cleaner and a tender point in the trapezius were significantly associated with increased prevalences of RR-fibres; a cleaner with a tender point had a 4.35 higher prevalence of RR-fibres compared to a teacher without a tender point. No correlations between other pain related variables and prevalence of RR-fibres were noted. In conclusion, RR-fibres but not COX-negative or COX-superpositive fibres were correlated with cleaning work tasks and with a tender point in the trapezius.
  •  
46.
  • Larsson, Jonas, et al. (författare)
  • An introduction to relativistic electrodynamics : Part I: Calculus with 4-vectors and 4-dyadics
  • 2018
  • Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • The conventional way of introducing relativity when teaching electrodynamics is to leave Gibbs' vector calculus for a more general tensor calculus. This sudden change of formalism can be quite problematic for the students and we therefore in this two-part paper consider alternate approaches. In this Part I we use a simplified tensor formalism with 4-vectors and 4-dyadics (i.e., second order tensors built by 4-vectors) but with no tensors of higher order than two. This allows for notations in good contact with the coordinate-free Gibbs' vector calculus that the students already master. Thus we use boldface notations for 4-vectors and 4-dyadics without coordinates and index algebra to formulate Lorentz transformations, Maxwell's equations, the equation of the motion of charged particles and the stress-energy conservation law. By first working with this simplified tensor formalism the students will get better prepared to learn the standard tensor calculus needed in more advanced courses.
  •  
47.
  • Larsson, Jonas, et al. (författare)
  • An introduction to relativistic electrodynamics : Part II: Calculus with complex 4-vectors
  • 2018
  • Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • The conventional way of introducing relativity when teaching electrodynamics is to leave Gibbs' vector calculus for a more general tensor calculus. This sudden change of formalism can be quite problematic for the students and we therefore in this two-part paper consider alternate approaches. The algebra  of 2-by-2 complex matrices (sometimes presented in the form of Clifford algebra or complex quaternions) may be used for spinor related formulations of special relativity and electrodynamics. In this Part II we use this algebraic structure but with notations that fits in with the formalism of Part I. Each observer  defines a product on the space of complex 4-vectors  so that  becomes an algebra isomorphic to  with  as algebra unit. The spacetime geometric equations of Part I become complex (spinor related) equations where the antisymmetric 4-dyadics have been replaced by complex 3-vectors, i.e., by elements in . For example, instead of the electromagnetic dyadic field  we now have the complex field variable . Some linear algebra together with the formalism of Gibbs' vector calculus (trivially allowing for complex 3-vectors) is sufficient for dealing with the equations in their complex form.
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