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1.
  • Vos, T., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1211-1259
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. Methods We estimated prevalence and incidence for 328 diseases and injuries and 2982 sequelae, their non-fatal consequences. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death rates for each condition. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies if incidence or prevalence needed to be derived from other data. YLDs were estimated as the product of prevalence and a disability weight for all mutually exclusive sequelae, corrected for comorbidity and aggregated to cause level. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. GBD 2016 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, low back pain, migraine, age-related and other hearing loss, iron-deficiency anaemia, and major depressive disorder were the five leading causes of YLDs in 2016, contributing 57.6 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 40.8-75.9 million [7.2%, 6.0-8.3]), 45.1 million (29.0-62.8 million [5.6%, 4.0-7.2]), 36.3 million (25.3-50.9 million [4.5%, 3.8-5.3]), 34.7 million (23.0-49.6 million [4.3%, 3.5-5.2]), and 34.1 million (23.5-46.0 million [4.2%, 3.2-5.3]) of total YLDs, respectively. Age-standardised rates of YLDs for all causes combined decreased between 1990 and 2016 by 2.7% (95% UI 2.3-3.1). Despite mostly stagnant age-standardised rates, the absolute number of YLDs from non-communicable diseases has been growing rapidly across all SDI quintiles, partly because of population growth, but also the ageing of populations. The largest absolute increases in total numbers of YLDs globally were between the ages of 40 and 69 years. Age-standardised YLD rates for all conditions combined were 10.4% (95% UI 9.0-11.8) higher in women than in men. Iron-deficiency anaemia, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, major depressive disorder, anxiety, and all musculoskeletal disorders apart from gout were the main conditions contributing to higher YLD rates in women. Men had higher age-standardised rates of substance use disorders, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and all injuries apart from sexual violence. Globally, we noted much less geographical variation in disability than has been documented for premature mortality. In 2016, there was a less than two times difference in age-standardised YLD rates for all causes between the location with the lowest rate (China, 9201 YLDs per 100 000, 95% UI 6862-11943) and highest rate (Yemen, 14 774 YLDs per 100 000, 11 018-19 228). Interpretation The decrease in death rates since 1990 for most causes has not been matched by a similar decline in age-standardised YLD rates. For many large causes, YLD rates have either been stagnant or have increased for some causes, such as diabetes. As populations are ageing, and the prevalence of disabling disease generally increases steeply with age, health systems will face increasing demand for services that are generally costlier than the interventions that have led to declines in mortality in childhood or for the major causes of mortality in adults. Up-todate information about the trends of disease and how this varies between countries is essential to plan for an adequate health-system response. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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2.
  • Wang, H. D., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1084-1150
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. Methods We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0.5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. Findings Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86.9 years (95% UI 86.7-87.2), and for men in Singapore, at 81.3 years (78.8-83.7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016. Interpretation Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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3.
  • Gakidou, E., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1345-1422
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2016. This study included 481 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk (RR) and exposure estimates from 22 717 randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources, according to the GBD 2016 source counting methods. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. Finally, we explored four drivers of trends in attributable burden: population growth, population ageing, trends in risk exposure, and all other factors combined. Findings Since 1990, exposure increased significantly for 30 risks, did not change significantly for four risks, and decreased significantly for 31 risks. Among risks that are leading causes of burden of disease, child growth failure and household air pollution showed the most significant declines, while metabolic risks, such as body-mass index and high fasting plasma glucose, showed significant increases. In 2016, at Level 3 of the hierarchy, the three leading risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs at the global level for men were smoking (124.1 million DALYs [95% UI 111.2 million to 137.0 million]), high systolic blood pressure (122.2 million DALYs [110.3 million to 133.3 million], and low birthweight and short gestation (83.0 million DALYs [78.3 million to 87.7 million]), and for women, were high systolic blood pressure (89.9 million DALYs [80.9 million to 98.2 million]), high body-mass index (64.8 million DALYs [44.4 million to 87.6 million]), and high fasting plasma glucose (63.8 million DALYs [53.2 million to 76.3 million]). In 2016 in 113 countries, the leading risk factor in terms of attributable DALYs was a metabolic risk factor. Smoking remained among the leading five risk factors for DALYs for 109 countries, while low birthweight and short gestation was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 38 countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. In terms of important drivers of change in trends of burden attributable to risk factors, between 2006 and 2016 exposure to risks explains an 9.3% (6.9-11.6) decline in deaths and a 10.8% (8.3-13.1) decrease in DALYs at the global level, while population ageing accounts for 14.9% (12.7-17.5) of deaths and 6.2% (3.9-8.7) of DALYs, and population growth for 12.4% (10.1-14.9) of deaths and 12.4% (10.1-14.9) of DALYs. The largest contribution of trends in risk exposure to disease burden is seen between ages 1 year and 4 years, where a decline of 27.3% (24.9-29.7) of the change in DALYs between 2006 and 2016 can be attributed to declines in exposure to risks. Interpretation Increasingly detailed understanding of the trends in risk exposure and the RRs for each risk-outcome pair provide insights into both the magnitude of health loss attributable to risks and how modification of risk exposure has contributed to health trends. Metabolic risks warrant particular policy attention, due to their large contribution to global disease burden, increasing trends, and variable patterns across countries at the same level of development. GBD 2016 findings show that, while it has huge potential to improve health, risk modification has played a relatively small part in the past decade. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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4.
  • Naghavi, M., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1151-1210
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Monitoring levels and trends in premature mortality is crucial to understanding how societies can address prominent sources of early death. The Global Burden of Disease 2016 Study (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 264 causes in 195 locations from 1980 to 2016. This assessment includes evaluation of the expected epidemiological transition with changes in development and where local patterns deviate from these trends. Methods We estimated cause-specific deaths and years of life lost (YLLs) by age, sex, geography, and year. YLLs were calculated from the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. We used the GBD cause of death database composed of: vital registration (VR) data corrected for under-registration and garbage coding; national and subnational verbal autopsy (VA) studies corrected for garbage coding; and other sources including surveys and surveillance systems for specific causes such as maternal mortality. To facilitate assessment of quality, we reported on the fraction of deaths assigned to GBD Level 1 or Level 2 causes that cannot be underlying causes of death (major garbage codes) by location and year. Based on completeness, garbage coding, cause list detail, and time periods covered, we provided an overall data quality rating for each location with scores ranging from 0 stars (worst) to 5 stars (best). We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to generate estimates for each location, year, age, and sex. We assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific deaths in relation to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of average income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility, with locations grouped into quintiles by SDI. Relative to GBD 2015, we expanded the GBD cause hierarchy by 18 causes of death for GBD 2016. Findings The quality of available data varied by location. Data quality in 25 countries rated in the highest category (5 stars), while 48, 30, 21, and 44 countries were rated at each of the succeeding data quality levels. Vital registration or verbal autopsy data were not available in 27 countries, resulting in the assignment of a zero value for data quality. Deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represented 72.3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 71.2-73.2) of deaths in 2016 with 19.3% (18.5-20.4) of deaths in that year occurring from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases and a further 8.43% (8.00-8.67) from injuries. Although age-standardised rates of death from NCDs decreased globally between 2006 and 2016, total numbers of these deaths increased; both numbers and age-standardised rates of death from CMNN causes decreased in the decade 2006-16-age-standardised rates of deaths from injuries decreased but total numbers varied little. In 2016, the three leading global causes of death in children under-5 were lower respiratory infections, neonatal preterm birth complications, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma, combined resulting in 1.80 million deaths (95% UI 1.59 million to 1.89 million). Between 1990 and 2016, a profound shift toward deaths at older ages occurred with a 178% (95% UI 176-181) increase in deaths in ages 90-94 years and a 210% (208-212) increase in deaths older than age 95 years. The ten leading causes by rates of age-standardised YLL significantly decreased from 2006 to 2016 (median annualised rate of change was a decrease of 2.89%); the median annualised rate of change for all other causes was lower (a decrease of 1.59%) during the same interval. Globally, the five leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were cardiovascular diseases; diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; neoplasms; neonatal disorders; and HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. At a finer level of disaggregation within cause groupings, the ten leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, road injuries, malaria, neonatal preterm birth complications, HIV/AIDS, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of total YLLs in 113 countries for men and 97 countries for women. Comparisons of observed levels of YLLs by countries, relative to the level of YLLs expected on the basis of SDI alone, highlighted distinct regional patterns including the greater than expected level of YLLs from malaria and from HIV/AIDS across sub-Saharan Africa; diabetes mellitus, especially in Oceania; interpersonal violence, notably within Latin America and the Caribbean; and cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, particularly in eastern and central Europe. The level of YLLs from ischaemic heart disease was less than expected in 117 of 195 locations. Other leading causes of YLLs for which YLLs were notably lower than expected included neonatal preterm birth complications in many locations in both south Asia and southeast Asia, and cerebrovascular disease in western Europe. Interpretation The past 37 years have featured declining rates of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases across all quintiles of SDI, with faster than expected gains for many locations relative to their SDI. A global shift towards deaths at older ages suggests success in reducing many causes of early death. YLLs have increased globally for causes such as diabetes mellitus or some neoplasms, and in some locations for causes such as drug use disorders, and conflict and terrorism. Increasing levels of YLLs might reflect outcomes from conditions that required high levels of care but for which effective treatments remain elusive, potentially increasing costs to health systems. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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7.
  • Naghavi, Mohsen, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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8.
  • Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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9.
  • Vos, Theo, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
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10.
  • Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
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11.
  • Wang, Haidong, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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12.
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13.
  • Roth, G. A., et al. (författare)
  • Global, Regional, and National Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases for 10 Causes, 1990 to 2015
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Journal of the American College of Cardiology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0735-1097 .- 1558-3597. ; 70:1, s. 1-25
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND The burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) remains unclear in many regions of the world. OBJECTIVES The GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2015 study integrated data on disease incidence, prevalence, and mortality to produce consistent, up-to-date estimates for cardiovascular burden. METHODS CVD mortality was estimated from vital registration and verbal autopsy data. CVD prevalence was estimated using modeling software and data from health surveys, prospective cohorts, health system administrative data, and registries. Years lived with disability (YLD) were estimated by multiplying prevalence by disability weights. Years of life lost (YLL) were estimated by multiplying age-specific CVD deaths by a reference life expectancy. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. RESULTS In 2015, there were an estimated 422.7 million cases of CVD (95% uncertainty interval: 415.53 to 427.87 million cases) and 17.92 million CVD deaths (95% uncertainty interval: 17.59 to 18.28 million CVD deaths). Declines in the age-standardized CVD death rate occurred between 1990 and 2015 in all high-income and some middle-income countries. Ischemic heart disease was the leading cause of CVD health lost globally, as well as in each world region, followed by stroke. As SDI increased beyond 0.25, the highest CVD mortality shifted from women to men. CVD mortality decreased sharply for both sexes in countries with an SDI > 0.75. CONCLUSIONS CVDs remain a major cause of health loss for all regions of the world. Sociodemographic change over the past 25 years has been associated with dramatic declines in CVD in regions with very high SDI, but only a gradual decrease or no change in most regions. Future updates of the GBD study can be used to guide policymakers who are focused on reducing the overall burden of noncommunicable disease and achieving specific global health targets for CVD. (C) 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier on behalf of the American College of Cardiology Foundation.
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15.
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16.
  • Leonov, A. A., et al. (författare)
  • Separation of electrons and protons in the GAMMA-400 gamma-ray telescope
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Advances in Space Research. - : Elsevier BV. - 0273-1177 .- 1879-1948. ; 56:7, s. 1538-1545
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The GAMMA-400 telescope will measure the fluxes of gamma rays and cosmic-ray electrons and positrons in the energy range from 100 MeV to several TeV. These measurements will allow it to achieve the following scientific objectives: search for signatures of dark matter, investigation of gamma-ray point-like and extended sources, study of the energy spectrum of the Galactic and extragalactic diffuse emission, study of gamma-ray bursts and gamma-ray emission from the active Sun, together with high-precision measurements of the high-energy electrons and positrons spectra, protons and nuclei up to the knee. The bulk of cosmic rays are protons and helium nuclei, whereas the lepton component in the total flux is similar to 10(-3) at high energy. In the present paper, the simulated capability of the GAMMA-400 telescope to distinguish electrons and positrons from protons in cosmic rays is addressed. The individual contribution to the proton rejection from each detector system of GAMMA-400 is studied separately. The use of the combined information from all detectors allows us to reach a proton rejection of the order of similar to 4 x 10(5) for vertical incident particles and similar to 3 x 10(5) for particles with initial inclination of 30 degrees in the electron energy range from 50 GeV to 1 TeV. (C) 2015 COSPAR.
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17.
  • Johansson, Mattias, et al. (författare)
  • The influence of obesity-related factors in the etiology of renal cell carcinoma—A mendelian randomization study
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: PLoS Medicine. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1549-1277 .- 1549-1676. ; 16:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Several obesity-related factors have been associated with renal cell carcinoma (RCC), but it is unclear which individual factors directly influence risk. We addressed this question using genetic markers as proxies for putative risk factors and evaluated their relation to RCC risk in a mendelian randomization (MR) framework. This methodology limits bias due to confounding and is not affected by reverse causation.Methods and findings: Genetic markers associated with obesity measures, blood pressure, lipids, type 2 diabetes, insulin, and glucose were initially identified as instrumental variables, and their association with RCC risk was subsequently evaluated in a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 10,784 RCC patients and 20,406 control participants in a 2-sample MR framework. The effect on RCC risk was estimated by calculating odds ratios (ORSD) for a standard deviation (SD) increment in each risk factor. The MR analysis indicated that higher body mass index increases the risk of RCC (ORSD: 1.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.44–1.70), with comparable results for waist-to-hip ratio (ORSD: 1.63, 95% CI 1.40–1.90) and body fat percentage (ORSD: 1.66, 95% CI 1.44–1.90). This analysis further indicated that higher fasting insulin (ORSD: 1.82, 95% CI 1.30–2.55) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP; ORSD: 1.28, 95% CI 1.11–1.47), but not systolic blood pressure (ORSD: 0.98, 95% CI 0.84–1.14), increase the risk for RCC. No association with RCC risk was seen for lipids, overall type 2 diabetes, or fasting glucose.Conclusions: This study provides novel evidence for an etiological role of insulin in RCC, as well as confirmatory evidence that obesity and DBP influence RCC risk.
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18.
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19.
  • Machiela, Mitchell J, et al. (författare)
  • Genetic Variants Related to Longer Telomere Length are Associated with Increased Risk of Renal Cell Carcinoma.
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: European Urology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0302-2838 .- 1873-7560. ; 72:5, s. 747-754
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Relative telomere length in peripheral blood leukocytes has been evaluated as a potential biomarker for renal cell carcinoma (RCC) risk in several studies, with conflicting findings.OBJECTIVE: We performed an analysis of genetic variants associated with leukocyte telomere length to assess the relationship between telomere length and RCC risk using Mendelian randomization, an approach unaffected by biases from temporal variability and reverse causation that might have affected earlier investigations.DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Genotypes from nine telomere length-associated variants for 10 784 cases and 20 406 cancer-free controls from six genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of RCC were aggregated into a weighted genetic risk score (GRS) predictive of leukocyte telomere length.OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Odds ratios (ORs) relating the GRS and RCC risk were computed in individual GWAS datasets and combined by meta-analysis.RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: Longer genetically inferred telomere length was associated with an increased risk of RCC (OR=2.07 per predicted kilobase increase, 95% confidence interval [CI]:=1.70-2.53, p<0.0001). As a sensitivity analysis, we excluded two telomere length variants in linkage disequilibrium (R2>0.5) with GWAS-identified RCC risk variants (rs10936599 and rs9420907) from the telomere length GRS; despite this exclusion, a statistically significant association between the GRS and RCC risk persisted (OR=1.73, 95% CI=1.36-2.21, p<0.0001). Exploratory analyses for individual histologic subtypes suggested comparable associations with the telomere length GRS for clear cell (N=5573, OR=1.93, 95% CI=1.50-2.49, p<0.0001), papillary (N=573, OR=1.96, 95% CI=1.01-3.81, p=0.046), and chromophobe RCC (N=203, OR=2.37, 95% CI=0.78-7.17, p=0.13).CONCLUSIONS: Our investigation adds to the growing body of evidence indicating some aspect of longer telomere length is important for RCC risk.PATIENT SUMMARY: Telomeres are segments of DNA at chromosome ends that maintain chromosomal stability. Our study investigated the relationship between genetic variants associated with telomere length and renal cell carcinoma risk. We found evidence suggesting individuals with inherited predisposition to longer telomere length are at increased risk of developing renal cell carcinoma.
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20.
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21.
  • Scelo, Ghislaine, et al. (författare)
  • Genome-wide association study identifies multiple risk loci for renal cell carcinoma.
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 8
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified six risk loci for renal cell carcinoma (RCC). We conducted a meta-analysis of two new scans of 5,198 cases and 7,331 controls together with four existing scans, totalling 10,784 cases and 20,406 controls of European ancestry. Twenty-four loci were tested in an additional 3,182 cases and 6,301 controls. We confirm the six known RCC risk loci and identify seven new loci at 1p32.3 (rs4381241, P=3.1 × 10-10), 3p22.1 (rs67311347, P=2.5 × 10-8), 3q26.2 (rs10936602, P=8.8 × 10-9), 8p21.3 (rs2241261, P=5.8 × 10-9), 10q24.33-q25.1 (rs11813268, P=3.9 × 10-8), 11q22.3 (rs74911261, P=2.1 × 10-10) and 14q24.2 (rs4903064, P=2.2 × 10-24). Expression quantitative trait analyses suggest plausible candidate genes at these regions that may contribute to RCC susceptibility.
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22.
  • Schoemaker, Minouk J, et al. (författare)
  • Association of Body Mass Index and Age With Subsequent Breast Cancer Risk in Premenopausal Women.
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: JAMA Oncology. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 2374-2437 .- 2374-2445. ; 4:11
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Importance: The association between increasing body mass index (BMI; calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared) and risk of breast cancer is unique in cancer epidemiology in that a crossover effect exists, with risk reduction before and risk increase after menopause. The inverse association with premenopausal breast cancer risk is poorly characterized but might be important in the understanding of breast cancer causation.Objective: To investigate the association of BMI with premenopausal breast cancer risk, in particular by age at BMI, attained age, risk factors for breast cancer, and tumor characteristics.Design, Setting, and Participants: This multicenter analysis used pooled individual-level data from 758 592 premenopausal women from 19 prospective cohorts to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) of premenopausal breast cancer in association with BMI from ages 18 through 54 years using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. Median follow-up was 9.3 years (interquartile range, 4.9-13.5 years) per participant, with 13 082 incident cases of breast cancer. Participants were recruited from January 1, 1963, through December 31, 2013, and data were analyzed from September 1, 2013, through December 31, 2017.Exposures: Body mass index at ages 18 to 24, 25 to 34, 35 to 44, and 45 to 54 years.Main Outcomes and Measures: Invasive or in situ premenopausal breast cancer.Results: Among the 758 592 premenopausal women (median age, 40.6 years; interquartile range, 35.2-45.5 years) included in the analysis, inverse linear associations of BMI with breast cancer risk were found that were stronger for BMI at ages 18 to 24 years (HR per 5 kg/m2 [5.0-U] difference, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.73-0.80) than for BMI at ages 45 to 54 years (HR per 5.0-U difference, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.86-0.91). The inverse associations were observed even among nonoverweight women. There was a 4.2-fold risk gradient between the highest and lowest BMI categories (BMI≥35.0 vs <17.0) at ages 18 to 24 years (HR, 0.24; 95% CI, 0.14-0.40). Hazard ratios did not appreciably vary by attained age or between strata of other breast cancer risk factors. Associations were stronger for estrogen receptor-positive and/or progesterone receptor-positive than for hormone receptor-negative breast cancer for BMI at every age group (eg, for BMI at age 18 to 24 years: HR per 5.0-U difference for estrogen receptor-positive and progesterone receptor-positive tumors, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.70-0.81] vs hormone receptor-negative tumors, 0.85 [95% CI: 0.76-0.95]); BMI at ages 25 to 54 years was not consistently associated with triple-negative or hormone receptor-negative breast cancer overall.Conclusions and Relevance: The results of this study suggest that increased adiposity is associated with a reduced risk of premenopausal breast cancer at a greater magnitude than previously shown and across the entire distribution of BMI. The strongest associations of risk were observed for BMI in early adulthood. Understanding the biological mechanisms underlying these associations could have important preventive potential.
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23.
  • Beecham, Ashley H, et al. (författare)
  • Analysis of immune-related loci identifies 48 new susceptibility variants for multiple sclerosis.
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Nature genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1546-1718 .- 1061-4036. ; 45:11, s. 1353-60
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Using the ImmunoChip custom genotyping array, we analyzed 14,498 subjects with multiple sclerosis and 24,091 healthy controls for 161,311 autosomal variants and identified 135 potentially associated regions (P < 1.0 × 10(-4)). In a replication phase, we combined these data with previous genome-wide association study (GWAS) data from an independent 14,802 subjects with multiple sclerosis and 26,703 healthy controls. In these 80,094 individuals of European ancestry, we identified 48 new susceptibility variants (P < 5.0 × 10(-8)), 3 of which we found after conditioning on previously identified variants. Thus, there are now 110 established multiple sclerosis risk variants at 103 discrete loci outside of the major histocompatibility complex. With high-resolution Bayesian fine mapping, we identified five regions where one variant accounted for more than 50% of the posterior probability of association. This study enhances the catalog of multiple sclerosis risk variants and illustrates the value of fine mapping in the resolution of GWAS signals.
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24.
  • Mirza, Majd A I, et al. (författare)
  • Relationship between circulating FGF23 and total body atherosclerosis in the community
  • 2009
  • Ingår i: Nephrology, Dialysis and Transplantation. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0931-0509 .- 1460-2385. ; 24:10, s. 3125-3131
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Fibroblast growth factor-23 (FGF23) is a regulator of mineral metabolism and has been suggested to play a role in vascular calcification in chronic kidney disease (CKD). Data on the association between FGF23 and atherosclerosis, both in CKD and in the community, is limited. METHODS: The total body atherosclerosis score (AS) was determined by a magnetic resonance imaging-based angiography in 306 elderly men and women, representing a subsample of the community-based PIVUS cohort. Subjects were divided into three categories based on AS: AS = 0, low AS and high AS. Serum FGF23 was measured using a two-site monoclonal antibody ELISA. RESULTS: In continuous and multi-category regression models, higher FGF23 was associated with a significant increase in the odds of having a high AS (OR 1.43, CI 1.06-1.92 to OR 3.01, CI 1.52-5.99). This association was stronger in individuals with eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) (n = 27), reaching a nearly 6-fold increase in the odds for a high AS in the upper FGF23 tertile (OR 5.64, CI 2.78-11.5). We found weaker support for a relationship between FGF23 and the presence of atherosclerosis as subjects in the highest FGF23 tertile had an increased risk for an AS > 0 in crude models (OR 1.93, CI 1.05-3.55), but this was not statistically significant in adjusted (OR 1.42, CI 0.74-1.72) models. CONCLUSIONS: We provide novel evidence supporting an association between serum FGF23 and total body atherosclerosis in the community. Additional studies are warranted to determine the prospective relationship between FGF23 and atherosclerosis, and whether FGF23 is a modifiable cardiovascular risk factor.
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25.
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26.
  • Nichols, Hazel B., et al. (författare)
  • The Premenopausal Breast Cancer Collaboration : A Pooling Project of Studies Participating in the National Cancer Institute Cohort Consortium
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers and Prevention. - : AMER ASSOC CANCER RESEARCH. - 1055-9965 .- 1538-7755. ; 26:9, s. 1360-1369
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Breast cancer is a leading cancer diagnosis among premenopausal women around the world. Unlike rates in postmenopausal women, incidence rates of advanced breast cancer have increased in recent decades for premenopausal women. Progress in identifying contributors to breast cancer risk among premenopausal women has been constrained by the limited numbers of premenopausal breast cancer cases in individual studies and resulting low statistical power to subcategorize exposures or to study specific subtypes. The Premenopausal Breast Cancer Collaborative Group was established to facilitate cohort-based analyses of risk factors for premenopausal breast cancer by pooling individuallevel data from studies participating in the United States National Cancer Institute Cohort Consortium. This article describes the Group, including the rationale for its initial aims related to pregnancy, obesity, and physical activity. We also describe the 20 cohort studies with data submitted to the Group by June 2016. The infrastructure developed for this work can be leveraged to support additional investigations.
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27.
  • Olofsson, Henrik, 1972, et al. (författare)
  • Odin water mapping in the Orion KL region
  • 2003
  • Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 402, s. L47-L54
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • New results from water mapping observations of the Orion KL region using the submm/mm wave satellite Odin (2.1\arcmin beam size at 557 GHz), are presented. The ortho-H2O \jkktrans{1}{1}{0}{1}{0}{1} ground state transition was observed in a 7arcminx 7arcmin rectangular grid with a spacing of 1\arcmin, while the same line of H218O was measured in two positions, Orion KL itself and 2\arcmin south of Orion KL. In the main water species, the KL molecular outflow is largely resolved from the ambient cloud and it is found to have an extension of 60\arcsec-110\arcsec. The H2O outflow profile exhibits a rather striking absorption-like asymmetry at the line centre. Self-absorption in the near (or ``blue'') part of the outflow (and possibly in foreground quiescent halo gas) is tentatively suggested to play a role here. We argue that the dominant part of the KL H218O outflow emission emanates from the compact (size ~ 15\arcsec) low-velocity flow and here estimate an H2O abundance of circa 10-5 compared to all H2 in the flow - an order of magnitude below earlier estimates of the H2O abundance in the shocked gas of the high-velocity flow. The narrow ambient cloud lines show weak velocity trends, both in the N-S and E-W directions. H218O is detected for the first time in the southern position at a level of ~ 0.15 K and we here estimate an H2O abundance of (1-8) x 10-8. Odin is a Swedish-led satellite project funded jointly by the Swedish National Space Board (SNSB), the Canadian Space Agency (CSA), the National Technology Agency of Finland (Tekes), and the Centre National d'Études Spatiales (CNES, France). The Swedish Space Corporation (SSC) was the industrial prime contractor and is also responsible for the satellite operation.
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28.
  • Andersson, A, et al. (författare)
  • The Foiling Optimist
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: The Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Innovation in High Performance Sailing Yachts, Lorient, France, 28-30 June 2017.. ; , s. 19-30
  • Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)
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29.
  • Broitman, E., et al. (författare)
  • Mechanical and tribological properties of CNx films deposited by reactive magnetron sputtering
  • 2001
  • Ingår i: Wear. - 0043-1648 .- 1873-2577. ; 248:1-2, s. 55-64
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The hardness, elasticity, wear rate and friction coefficient of carbon nitride (CNx) films of defined microstructure and composition are presented. CNx films were deposited by dc reactive magnetron sputtering from a C target in N2/Ar plasma. Films were grown on Si (001), Ni, and HSS substrates to thickness of ~0.5 µm at a total pressure of 3 mTorr with the N2 fraction varied from 0 to 1, and the substrate temperature Ts, varied from ambient to 350°C. The mechanical and tribological properties of the coatings were evaluated by nanoindentation and dry ball-on-disk test. For CNx (0 = x = 0.35) films deposited below 200°C (amorphous structure), the elastic recovery and hardness do not change significantly with increasing N concentration, however, the friction coefficient increases from 0.19 to 0.45, while the coating wear rate is low. For CNx (0 = x = 0.15) films grown at Ts = 350°C, where a transition from a graphite-like to a "fullerene-like" phase occurs, a dramatic increase in hardness and elasticity is observed. Furthermore, the rms surface roughness decreases from 15.0 to 0.4 nm. For 0.15 = x = 0.20, CNx films deposited at Ts = 350°C (fullerene-like phase) exhibit a smooth surface, high hardness and elasticity (~90% recovery), and a coefficient of friction against hard steel of ~0.25. For all substrates, film friction coefficient tends to increase as the nitrogen content in the film is increased. Results also indicate the formation of a transfer layer which improves the tribological properties of the films. © 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
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30.
  • Carlsson, Axel C, et al. (författare)
  • Soluble TNF receptors and kidney dysfunction in the elderly
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Journal of the American Society of Nephrology. - 1046-6673 .- 1533-3450. ; 25:6, s. 1313-1320
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The importance of TNF-α and its soluble receptors (sTNFR1 and sTNFR2) in the development of kidney disease is being unraveled. Yet, community-based data regarding the role of sTNFRs are lacking. We assessed serum sTNFRs and aspects of kidney damage cross-sectionally in two independent community-based cohorts of elderly participants: Prospective Investigation of the Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors (n=815; mean age, 75 years; 51% women) and Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (n=778; mean age, 78 years). Serum sTNFR1 correlated substantially with different aspects of kidney pathology in the Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men cohort (R=-0.52 for estimated GFR, R=0.22 for urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio, and R=0.17 for urinary kidney injury molecule-1; P<0.001 for all), with similar correlations in the Prospective Investigation of the Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors cohort. These associations remained significant after adjustment for age, sex, inflammatory markers, and cardiovascular risk factors and were also evident in participants without diabetes. Serum sTNFR2 was associated with all three markers in the Prospective Investigation of the Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors cohort (P<0.001 for all). Our findings from two independent community-based cohorts confirm and extend results of previous studies supporting circulating sTNFRs as relevant biomarkers for kidney damage and dysfunction in elderly individuals, even in the absence of diabetes.
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31.
  • Carlsson, Axel C, et al. (författare)
  • Soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 is associated with glomerular filtration rate progression and incidence of chronic kidney disease in two community-based cohorts of elderly individuals
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: CardioRenal Medicine. - : S. Karger AG. - 1664-3828 .- 1664-5502. ; 5:4, s. 278-288
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objective: We aimed to explore and validate the longitudinal associations between soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 (sTNFR1), glomerular filtration rate (GFR) progression, and chronic kidney disease (CKD) incidence in two independent community-based cohorts of elderly individuals with prespecified subgroup analyses in individuals without prevalent diabetes.Research design and methods: Two community-based cohorts of elderly individuals were used with 5-year follow-up data on estimated GFR: the Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM; n = 437 men; mean age: 78 years) and the Prospective Investigation of the Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors (PIVUS; n = 703; mean age: 70 years; 51% women). GFR categories were defined as >= 60, 30-60, and <30 ml/min/1.73 m(2).Results: In longitudinal multivariable logistic regression models adjusted for inflammatory markers and established cardiovascular risk factors, higher serum sTNFR1 was significantly associated with an increased risk to progress to a lower GFR category in both ULSAM and PIVUS [odds ratio (OR) per standard deviation (SD) increase 1.28 (95% CI 1.03-1.60) and OR 1.56 (95% CI 1.30-1.87), respectively]. Also, in subgroup analyses in individuals with a GFR >= 60 ml/min/1.73 m(2) at baseline, higher sTNFRs were associated with incident CKD after 5 years in both cohorts [ULSAM: OR per SD increase 1.49 (95% CI 1.16-1.9) and PIVUS: OR 1.84 (95% CI 1.50-2.26)]. Associations were similar in individuals without diabetes.Conclusions: Higher circulating sTNFR1 independently predicts the progression to a worse GFR category and CKD incidence in elderly individuals even in the absence of diabetes. Further studies are warranted to investigate the underlying mechanisms, and to evaluate the clinical relevance of our findings. 
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32.
  • Carlsson, Axel C, et al. (författare)
  • Soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 (sTNFR1) is associated with increased total mortality due to cancer and cardiovascular causes : findings from two community based cohorts of elderly
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Atherosclerosis. - : Elsevier. - 0021-9150 .- 1879-1484. ; 237:1, s. 236-242
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Experimental evidence support soluble receptors for tumor necrosis factor alpha as important mediators of the underlying pathology leading to cardiovascular disease and cancer. However, prospective data concerning the relation between circulating soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor-1 (sTNFR1) and mortality in humans are lacking. We aimed to explore and validate the association between sTNFR1 and mortality, and to explore the influence of other established risk factors for mortality, including other inflammatory markers.METHODS: The association between serum sTNFR1and the risk for mortality was investigated in two community-based cohorts of elderly: the Prospective Investigation of the Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors (PIVUS; women 50%, n = 1005, mean age 70 years, median follow-up 7.9 years) and the Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM, n = 775, mean age 77 years, median follow-up 8.1 years).RESULTS: In total, 101 participants in PIVUS and 274 in ULSAM died during follow-up. In multivariable Cox regression models adjusted for inflammation, lifestyle and established cardiovascular risk factors, one standard deviation (SD) higher sTNFR1 was associated with a hazard ratio (HR) for mortality of 1.37, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.17-1.60, in PIVUS and HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.10-1.37 in ULSAM. Moreover, circulatingsTNFR1 was associated with cardiovascular mortality (HR per SD of sTNFR1, 1.24, 95% CI 1.07-1.44) and cancer mortality (HR per SD of sTNFR1, 1.32, 95% CI 1.11-1.57) in the ULSAM cohort. High levels of sTNFR1 identified individuals with increased risk of mortality among those with high as well as low levels of systemic inflammation.CONCLUSIONS: An association between circulating sTNFR1 and an increased risk for mortality was found and validated in two independent community-based cohorts. The future clinical role of sTNFR1 to identify high risk patients for adverse outcomes and mortality has yet to be determined.
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33.
  • Carlsson, Axel C, et al. (författare)
  • Urinary kidney injury molecule 1 and incidence of heart failure in elderly men
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: European Journal of Heart Failure. - : Oxford University Press. - 1388-9842 .- 1879-0844. ; 15:4, s. 447-446
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • AIMS: There is growing recognition of the clinical importance of cardiorenal syndrome-the bidirectional interplay between kidney and cardiac dysfunction. Yet, the role of kidney tubular damage in the development of heart failure is less studied. The objective of this study was to investigate whether urinary kidney injury molecule (KIM)-1, a specific marker of tubular damage, predisposes to an increased heart failure risk.METHODS AND RESULTS: This was a community-based cohort study [Uppsala Longitudinal study of Adult Men (ULSAM)] of 565, 77-year-old men free from heart failure at baseline. Heart failure hospitalizations were used as outcome. During follow-up (median 8.0 years), 73 participants were hospitalized for heart failure. In models adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors (age, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, smoking, body mass index, LDL/HDL ratio, antihypertensive treatment, lipid-lowering treatment, aspirin treatment, LV hypertrophy, and prevalent cardiovascular disease) and markers of kidney dysfunction and damage [cystatin C-based glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and urinary albumin/creatinine ratio], a higher urinary KIM-1/creatinine ratio was associated with higher risk for heart failure (hazard ratio upper vs. lower tertile, 1.81; 95% confidence interval 1.01-3.29; P < 0.05). Participants with a combination of low GFR (<60 mL/min/1.72 m(2)) and high KIM-1/creatinine (>128 ng/mmol) had a 3-fold increase in heart failure risk compared with participants with normal GFR and KIM-1 (P < 0.001).CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that kidney tubular damage predisposes to an increased risk for heart failure in the community. Further studies are needed to clarify the causal role of KIM-1 in the development of heart failure, and to evaluate the clinical utility of urinary KIM-1 measurements.
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34.
  • Carlsson, Axel C, et al. (författare)
  • Urinary kidney injury molecule-1 and the risk of cardiovascular mortality in elderly men
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: American Society of Nephrology. Clinical Journal. - 1555-9041 .- 1555-905X. ; 9:8, s. 1393-1401
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Kidney injury molecule-1 (KIM-1) has been suggested as a clinically relevant highly specific biomarker of acute kidney tubular damage. However, community-based data on the association between urinary levels of KIM-1 and the risk for cardiovascular mortality are lacking. This study aimed to investigate the association between urinary KIM-1 and cardiovascular mortality.DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: This was a prospective study, using the community-based Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (N=590; mean age 77 years; baseline period, 1997-2001; median follow-up 8.1 years; end of follow-up, 2008).RESULTS: During follow-up, 89 participants died of cardiovascular causes (incidence rate, 2.07 per 100 person-years at risk). Models were adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors (age, systolic BP, diabetes, smoking, body mass index, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, antihypertensive treatment, lipid-lowering treatment, aspirin treatment, and history of cardiovascular disease) and for markers of kidney dysfunction and damage (cystatin C-based eGFR and urinary albumin/creatinine ratio). Higher urinary KIM-1/creatinine (from 24-hour urine collections) was associated with a higher risk for cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratio per SD increase, 1.27; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.05 to 1.54; P=0.01). Participants with a combination of high KIM-1/creatinine (upper quintile, ≥175 ng/mmol), low eGFR (≤60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2)), and microalbuminuria/macroalbuminuria (albumin/creatinine ratio≥3 g/mol) had a >8-fold increased risk compared with participants with low KIM-1/creatinine (<175 ng/mmol), normal eGFR (>60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2)), and normoalbuminuria (albumin/creatinine ratio<3 g/mol) (hazard ratio, 8.56; 95% CI, 4.17 to 17.56; P<0.001).CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that higher urinary KIM-1 may predispose to a higher risk of cardiovascular mortality independently of established cardiovascular risk factors, eGFR, and albuminuria. Additional studies are needed to further assess the utility of measuring KIM-1 in the clinical setting.
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35.
  • Eriksson, B. K., et al. (författare)
  • Liver embolizations of patients with malignant neuroendocrine gastrointestinal tumors
  • 1998
  • Ingår i: Cancer. - 0008-543X .- 1097-0142. ; 83:11, s. 2293-2301
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND Patients with neuroendocrine gastrointestinal tumors usually present with inoperable metastatic disease and severe hormonal symptoms. Specific chemotherapy, interferon-alpha (IFN), and somatostatin analogs are established therapies for these patients, but all of them eventually fail. Hepatic arterial embolization can provide reduction of both hormonal symptoms and tumor burden in these patients. METHODS Between 1981 and 1995, a total of 55 liver embolizations with gel foam powder were performed on 41 patients with histopathologically verified neuroendocrine tumors; 29 had carcinoid tumors and 12 had endocrine pancreatic tumors (EPTs). All patients had received medical treatment, including chemotherapy (n = 18), IFN (n = 31), and octreotide (n = 19), and were experiencing treatment failure when liver embolization was performed at a median of 37 months after diagnosis of liver metastases. Medical treatment was continued after embolization. RESULTS An overall objective response was noted in 15 of 29 patients with carcinoid tumors (52%). The median duration of effect was 12 months in patients with midgut carcinoid tumors. An overall objective response was observed in 6 of 12 patients with EPTs (50%), with a median duration of effect of 10 months. Adverse events were observed, and, in agreement with earlier reports, the rate of serious complications was 10%. Survival analyses showed a median survival of 80 months and a 5-year survival rate of 60% from the performance of embolization on patients with midgut carcinoid tumors, whereas for patients with EPTs the median survival from embolization was only 20 months. CONCLUSIONS Liver embolizations performed relatively late in the clinical course in our series appeared to be as effective as "early" embolizations in other series of patients with carcinoid tumors. The results for those with EPTs were poorer, and earlier embolizations may result in better outcomes for these patients. Considering the morbidity associated with the procedure, it is imperative to select patients according to extent of liver involvement, severity of carcinoid heart disease, and somatostatin receptor status.
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36.
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37.
  • Grinkevich, Vera V., et al. (författare)
  • Novel Allosteric Mechanism of Dual p53/MDM2 and p53/MDM4 Inhibition by a Small Molecule
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Frontiers in Molecular Biosciences. - : Frontiers Media S.A.. - 2296-889X. ; 9
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Restoration of the p53 tumor suppressor for personalised cancer therapy is a promising treatment strategy. However, several high-affinity MDM2 inhibitors have shown substantial side effects in clinical trials. Thus, elucidation of the molecular mechanisms of action of p53 reactivating molecules with alternative functional principle is of the utmost importance. Here, we report a discovery of a novel allosteric mechanism of p53 reactivation through targeting the p53 N-terminus which promotes inhibition of both p53/MDM2 (murine double minute 2) and p53/MDM4 interactions. Using biochemical assays and molecular docking, we identified the binding site of two p53 reactivating molecules, RITA (reactivation of p53 and induction of tumor cell apoptosis) and protoporphyrin IX (PpIX). Ion mobility-mass spectrometry revealed that the binding of RITA to serine 33 and serine 37 is responsible for inducing the allosteric shift in p53, which shields the MDM2 binding residues of p53 and prevents its interactions with MDM2 and MDM4. Our results point to an alternative mechanism of blocking p53 interaction with MDM2 and MDM4 and may pave the way for the development of novel allosteric inhibitors of p53/MDM2 and p53/MDM4 interactions.
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38.
  • Hagström, Emil, et al. (författare)
  • Plasma parathyroid hormone and risk of congestive heart failure in the community
  • 2010
  • Ingår i: European Journal of Heart Failure. - : Wiley. - 1388-9842 .- 1879-0844. ; 12:11, s. 1186-1192
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • In experimental studies parathyroid hormone (PTH) has been associated with underlying causes of heart failure (HF) such as atherosclerosis, left ventricular hypertrophy, and myocardial fibrosis. Individuals with increased levels of PTH, such as primary or secondary hyperparathyroidism patients, have increased risk of ischaemic heart disease and HF. Moreover, increasing PTH is associated with worse prognosis in patients with overt HF. However, the association between PTH and the development HF in the community has not been reported. In a prospective, community-based study of 864 elderly men without HF or valvular disease at baseline (mean age 71 years, the ULSAM study) the association between plasma (P)-PTH and HF hospitalization was investigated adjusted for established HF risk factors (myocardial infarction, hypertension, diabetes, electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy, smoking, and hypercholesterolaemia) and variables reflecting mineral metabolism (S-calcium, S-phosphate, P-vitamin D, S-albumin, dietary calcium and vitamin D intake, physical activity, glomerular filtration rate, and blood draw season). During follow-up (median 8 years), 75 individuals were hospitalized due to HF. In multivariable Cox-regression analyses, higher P-PTH was associated with increased HF hospitalization (hazard ratio for 1-SD increase of PTH, 1.41, 95% CI 1.12-1.77, P = 0.003). Parathyroid hormone also predicted hospitalization in participants without apparent ischaemic HF and in participants with normal P-PTH. In a large community-based sample of elderly men, PTH predicted HF hospitalizations, also after accounting for established risk factors and mineral metabolism variables. Our data suggest a role for PTH in the development of HF even in the absence of overt hyperparathyroidism.
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39.
  • Hagström, Emil, et al. (författare)
  • Plasma parathyroid hormone and the risk of cardiovascular mortality in the community
  • 2009
  • Ingår i: Circulation. - : American Heart Association. - 0009-7322 .- 1524-4539. ; 119:21, s. 2765-2771
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Diseases with elevated levels of parathyroid hormone (PTH) such as primary and secondary hyperparathyroidism are associated with increased incidence of cardiovascular disease and death. However, data on the prospective association between circulating PTH levels and cardiovascular mortality in the community are lacking. METHODS AND RESULTS: The Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM), a community-based cohort of elderly men (mean age, 71 years; n=958), was used to investigate the association between plasma PTH and cardiovascular mortality. During follow-up (median, 9.7 years), 117 participants died of cardiovascular causes. In Cox proportional-hazards models adjusted for established cardiovascular risk factors (age, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, smoking, body mass index, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, antihypertensive treatment, lipid-lowering treatment, and history of cardiovascular disease), higher plasma PTH was associated with higher risk for cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratio for 1-SD increase in PTH, 1.38; 95% confidence interval, 1.18 to 1.60; P<0.001). This association remained essentially unaltered in participants without previous cardiovascular disease and in participants with normal PTH (<6.8 pmol/L) with no other signs of a disturbed mineral metabolism (normal serum calcium, 2.2 to 2.6 mmol/L; normal glomerular filtration rate, >50 mL . min(-1) . 1.73 m(-2) and without vitamin D deficiency, plasma 25-OH vitamin D >37.5 nmol/L). Interestingly, elevated plasma PTH (>5.27 pmol/L) accounted for 20% (95% confidence interval, 10 to 26) of the population-attributable risk proportion for cardiovascular mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Plasma PTH levels predict cardiovascular mortality in the community, even in individuals with PTH within the normal range. Further studies are warranted to evaluate the clinical implications of measuring PTH in cardiovascular risk prediction and to elucidate whether PTH is a modifiable risk factor.
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40.
  • Hanson, N., et al. (författare)
  • Ecological changes as a plausible explanation for differences in uptake of contaminants between European perch and eelpout in a coastal area of the Baltic Sea
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Environmental Toxicology and Pharmacology. - : Elsevier BV. - 1382-6689 .- 1872-7077. ; 80
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Unexpected increasing trends in the concentration of contaminants in European perch (Perca fluviatilis) and in activity of ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase (EROD) in European perch and eelpout (Zoarces viviparus) have been observed at a Swedish coastal reference site. This study uses data from different sources to investigate plausible explanations. The results showed that a change in diet and an improved overall condition coincide with an increase in mercury in European perch. Furthermore, an increase in several organic contaminants in European perch coincided with the introduction of an invasive deep-burrowing polychaete, which likely contributed to the release of contaminants through bioturbation. The increase in EROD-activity in both species seems to be related to contaminants that reach the fish through the water rather than the diet. The results show that for contaminants that are taken up via the diet, trends in contamination can be opposite for different species of fish in the same area. © 2020
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41.
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42.
  • Kyu, Hmwe H, et al. (författare)
  • Global and National Burden of Diseases and Injuries Among Children and Adolescents Between 1990 and 2013 : Findings From the Global Burden of Disease 2013 Study.
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: JAMA pediatrics. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 2168-6203 .- 2168-6211. ; 170:3, s. 267-287
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • IMPORTANCE: The literature focuses on mortality among children younger than 5 years. Comparable information on nonfatal health outcomes among these children and the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among older children and adolescents is scarce.OBJECTIVE: To determine levels and trends in the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among younger children (aged <5 years), older children (aged 5-9 years), and adolescents (aged 10-19 years) between 1990 and 2013 in 188 countries from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 study.EVIDENCE REVIEW: Data from vital registration, verbal autopsy studies, maternal and child death surveillance, and other sources covering 14 244 site-years (ie, years of cause of death data by geography) from 1980 through 2013 were used to estimate cause-specific mortality. Data from 35 620 epidemiological sources were used to estimate the prevalence of the diseases and sequelae in the GBD 2013 study. Cause-specific mortality for most causes was estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble Model strategy. For some infectious diseases (eg, HIV infection/AIDS, measles, hepatitis B) where the disease process is complex or the cause of death data were insufficient or unavailable, we used natural history models. For most nonfatal health outcomes, DisMod-MR 2.0, a Bayesian metaregression tool, was used to meta-analyze the epidemiological data to generate prevalence estimates.FINDINGS: Of the 7.7 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7.4-8.1) million deaths among children and adolescents globally in 2013, 6.28 million occurred among younger children, 0.48 million among older children, and 0.97 million among adolescents. In 2013, the leading causes of death were lower respiratory tract infections among younger children (905 059 deaths; 95% UI, 810 304-998 125), diarrheal diseases among older children (38 325 deaths; 95% UI, 30 365-47 678), and road injuries among adolescents (115 186 deaths; 95% UI, 105 185-124 870). Iron deficiency anemia was the leading cause of years lived with disability among children and adolescents, affecting 619 (95% UI, 618-621) million in 2013. Large between-country variations exist in mortality from leading causes among children and adolescents. Countries with rapid declines in all-cause mortality between 1990 and 2013 also experienced large declines in most leading causes of death, whereas countries with the slowest declines had stagnant or increasing trends in the leading causes of death. In 2013, Nigeria had a 12% global share of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections and a 38% global share of deaths from malaria. India had 33% of the world's deaths from neonatal encephalopathy. Half of the world's diarrheal deaths among children and adolescents occurred in just 5 countries: India, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Ethiopia.CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Understanding the levels and trends of the leading causes of death and disability among children and adolescents is critical to guide investment and inform policies. Monitoring these trends over time is also key to understanding where interventions are having an impact. Proven interventions exist to prevent or treat the leading causes of unnecessary death and disability among children and adolescents. The findings presented here show that these are underused and give guidance to policy makers in countries where more attention is needed.
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43.
  • Lang, Dean H., et al. (författare)
  • Bone, Muscle, and Physical Activity : Structural Equation Modeling of Relationships and Genetic Influence With Age
  • 2009
  • Ingår i: Journal of Bone and Mineral Research. - 0884-0431 .- 1523-4681. ; 24:9, s. 1608-1617
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Correlations among bone strength, muscle mass, and physical activity suggest that these traits may be modulated by each other and/or by common genetic and/or environmental mechanisms. This study used structural equation modeling (SEM) to explore the extent to which select genetic loci manifest their pleiotropic effects through functional adaptations commonly referred to as Wolff's law. Quantitative trait locus (QTL) analysis was used to identify regions of chromosomes that simultaneously influenced skeletal mechanics, muscle mass, and/or activity-related behaviors in young and aged B6xD2 second-generation (F-2) mice of both sexes. SEM was used to further study relationships among select QTLs, bone mechanics, muscle mass, and measures of activity. The SEM approach provided the means to numerically decouple the musculoskeletal effects of mechanical loading from the effects of other physiological processes involved in locomotion and physical activity. It was found that muscle mass was a better predictor of bone mechanics in young females, whereas mechanical loading was a better predictor of bone mechanics in older females. An activity-induced loading factor positively predicted the mechanical behavior of hindlimb bones in older males; contrarily, load-free locomotion (i.e., the remaining effects after removing the effects of loading) negatively predicted bone performance. QTLs on chromosomes 4, 7, and 9 seem to exert some of their influence on bone through actions consistent with Wolff's Law. Further exploration of these and other mechanisms through which genes function will aid in development of individualized interventions able to exploit the numerous complex pathways contributing to skeletal health. J Bone Miner Res 2009;24:1608-1617. Published online on April 27, 2009; doi: 10.1359/JBMR.090418
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44.
  • Larsson, Bengt, et al. (författare)
  • Molecular oxygen in the rho Ophiuchi cloud
  • 2007
  • Ingår i: Astronomy & Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 466:3, s. 5-
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Context: Molecular oxygen, O2, has been expected historically to be an abundant component of the chemical species in molecular clouds and, as such, an important coolant of the dense interstellar medium. However, a number of attempts from both ground and from space have failed to detect O2 emission.Aims: The work described here uses heterodyne spectroscopy from space to search for molecular oxygen in the interstellar medium. Methods: The Odin satellite carries a 1.1 m sub-millimeter dish and a dedicated 119 GHz receiver for the ground state line of O2. Starting in 2002, the star forming molecular cloud core ρ Oph A was observed with Odin for 34 days during several observing runs.Results: We detect a spectral line at v_LSR =+3.5 km s-1 with Δ v_FWHM=1.5 km s-1, parameters which are also common to other species associated with ρ Oph A. This feature is identified as the O2 (NJ = 11 - 1_0) transition at 118 750.343 MHz.Conclusions: The abundance of molecular oxygen, relative to H{2} , is 5 × 10-8 averaged over the Odin beam. This abundance is consistently lower than previously reported upper limits.Based on observations with Odin, a Swedish-led satellite project funded jointly by the Swedish National Space Board (SNSB), the Canadian Space Agency (CSA), the National Technology Agency of Finland (Tekes) and Centre National d'Étude Spatiale (CNES). The Swedish Space Corporation has been the industrial prime contractor and also is operating the satellite. Appendix A is only available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org
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45.
  • Larsson, Cecilia M (författare)
  • Early Cambrian Problematic Lophotrochozoans and Dilemmas of Scleritome Reconstructions
  • 2012
  • Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • The emergence and radiation of metazoan body plans around the Precambrian/Cambrian boundary, some 500-600 million years ago, seems to be concordant with the appearance and diversification of preservable hard parts. Several Precambrian soft-bodied, multicellular organisms most likely represent stem-group bilaterians, but their fossil record is rather sparse.  In contrast, the Cambrian fossil record is comparably rich – comprising hard part, trace fossil and delicate soft tissue preservation – and most animal phyla that we know of today had evolved by the end of the Cambrian. Consequently, this time represents an important period in the early evolution of metazoan life forms. Most skeletal remnants of invertebrate organisms from this period are preserved in incomplete, disarticulated sclerite assemblages, and the true architecture of the original skeletal structure, the scleritome, may therefore be hard to discern. Many scleritomous taxa have been suggested to be members of the lophotrochozoan clade, while their exact position within this group remains unclear. Such taxa are often referred to as Problematica. This thesis deals with some problematic scleritomous early Cambrian lophotrochozoans, and as such also addresses the dilemmas of scleritome reconstructions. In the first part, completely disarticulated calcareous sclerites from the lower Cambrian of North Greenland are described as Trachyplax arctica. Hypothetical scleritome reconstruction alternatives and comparisons to other scleritome-bearing taxa are discussed, but the lack of articulated material obscures any satisfactory conclusions regarding phylogenetic affinities and the original morphology of the organism. The other part of the thesis focuses on some minute, organophosphatic scleritomous metazoans, tommotiids, found in lower Cambrian limestone successions in South Australia – Paterimitra pyramidalis and Kulparina rostrata – their scleritome architecture and their phylogenetic relationship with paterinid brachiopods. The oldest brachiopod from South Australia, Askepasma saproconcha, and the slightly younger Askepasma toddense are also described and discussed. Based on articulated specimens, recently described partial scleritomes of the tommotiid Eccentrotheca helenia and similarities in shell ultrastructure with both Eccentrotheca and Askepasma, Paterimitra is interpreted as a stem-group brachiopod and reconstructed as a bilaterally symmetrical, sessile, filter feeder with a tubular/conical scleritome. The morphological similarities with Paterimitra point in the same direction for the slightly older Kulparina.
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46.
  • Larsson, Lars E, et al. (författare)
  • Harmonisation of the appearance of digital radiographs from different vendors by means of common external image processing
  • 2010
  • Ingår i: Radiation protection dosimetry. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1742-3406 .- 0144-8420. ; 139:1-3, s. 92-97
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The aim of the present study was to evaluate the use of common external image processing to compensate for differences in appearance between digital X-ray images from different vendors. Twenty posteroanterior chest radiographs were collected from each of three different modalities from different vendors (GE, Siemens and Canon) with vendor-specific image processing applied. The images were also extracted with neutral process parameters and processed with external image-processing software. Six experienced radiologists rated the quality and the similarity of the images with the original Siemens images. The externally processed GE images were rated of higher quality than the original GE images and more similar to the original Siemens images (p < 0.001). The opposite was obtained for the Canon images. The externally processed Siemens images were rated of similar quality as the original images. The present study indicates the possibility of using common external image processing to harmonise the appearance of images from different vendors, although the exposure parameters may need to be adjusted for individual vendors.
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47.
  • Lundbäck, Bo, et al. (författare)
  • Not 15 But 50% of smokers develop COPD?—Report from the Obstructive Lung Disease in Northern Sweden Studies
  • 2003
  • Ingår i: Respiratory Medicine. - : Elsevier BV. - 0954-6111 .- 1532-3064. ; 97:2, s. 115-122
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: The prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) according to guidelines of today seems considerably higher than has been reported also in recent literature.Aim: To estimate the prevalence of COPD as defined by British Thoracic Society (BTS) criteria and the recent global initiative for chronic obstructive lung disease (GOLD) criteria. Further aims were to assess the proportion of underdiagnosis and of symptoms in subjects with COPD, and to study risk factors for COPD.Methods: In 1996, 5892 of the Obstructive Lung Disease in Northern Sweden (OLIN) Study's first cohort could be traced to a third follow-up survey, and 5189 completed responses (88%) were received corresponding to 79% of the original cohort from December 1985. Of the responders, a random sample of 1500 subjects were invited to a structured interview and a lung function test, and 1237 of the invited completed a lung function test with acceptable quality.Results: In ages >45 years, the prevalence of COPD according to the BTS guidelines was 8%, while it was 14% according to the GOLD criteria. The absolutely dominating risk factors were increasing age and smoking, and approximately a half of elderly smokers fulfilled the criteria for COPD according to both the BTS and the GOLD criteria. Family history of obstructive airway disease was also a risk factor, while gender was not. Of those fulfilling the BTS criteria for COPD, 94% were symptomatics, 69% had chronic productive cough, but only 31% had prior to the study been diagnosed as having either chronic bronchitis, emphysema, or COPD. The corresponding figures for COPD according GOLD were 88, 51, and 18%.Conclusions: In ages >45 years, the prevalence of COPD according to the BTS guidelines was 8%, and it was 14% according to the GOLD criteria. Fifty percent of elderly smokers had developed COPD. The large majority of subjects having COPD were symptomatic, while the proportion of those diagnosed as having COPD or similar diagnoses was small.
  •  
48.
  • Mirza, Majd A I, et al. (författare)
  • Circulating fibroblast growth factor-23 is associated with vascular dysfunction in the community
  • 2009
  • Ingår i: Atherosclerosis. - : Elsevier BV. - 0021-9150 .- 1879-1484. ; 205:2, s. 385-390
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • OBJECTIVE: Subjects with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are at higher risk for cardiovascular (CV) disease than the general population. These patients have elevated circulating levels of FGF23, which predict for increased mortality in CKD patients on hemodialysis. Since CV disease is a major cause of death in CKD, we investigated the association between FGF23 and vascular function. METHODS AND RESULTS: We employed a community-based cohort of subjects aged 70, the PIVUS study (n=967), to investigate the relation between serum FGF23, endothelium function and arterial stiffness. Higher FGF23 was weakly associated with both impaired endothelium-dependent (beta=-0.08, p<0.05) and endothelium-independent (beta=-0.08, p<0.01) vasodilation. The association was stronger in subjects with eGFR> or =90mL/min/1.73m(2) (beta=-0.19 and beta=-0.22, respectively, p<0.001). In addition, higher FGF23 was associated with increased arterial stiffness exclusively in subjects with an age-adjusted impaired renal function (eGFR<60mL/min/1.73m(2)) (beta=0.26, p<0.001). All associations were independent of gender, biochemical covariates and established CV risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: Higher serum FGF23 levels, even within the normal range, are independently associated with impaired vasoreactivity and increased arterial stiffness in the community. Additional studies are required to determine possible direct vascular effects of FGF23 and whether FGF23 is a modifiable CV risk factor.
  •  
49.
  • Mirza, Majd A. I., et al. (författare)
  • Serum intact FGF23 associate with left ventricular mass, hypertrophy and geometry in an elderly population
  • 2009
  • Ingår i: Atherosclerosis. - : Elsevier BV. - 0021-9150 .- 1879-1484. ; 207:2, s. 546-551
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Fibroblast growth factor-23 (FGF23) is a hormonal regulator of circulating phosphate and vitamin D levels. Serum FGF23 is elevated in chronic kidney disease (CKD) and is a prognostic marker of poor outcomes, such as faster CKD progression and increased mortality in hemodialysis patients. Despite the high prevalence of cardiovascular disease in CKD, the relation between circulating FGF23 and cardiovascular risk factors, both in CKD and in the community, has not been studied in detail. We evaluated the relation between FGF23, left ventricular mass index (LVMI), hypertrophy (LVH) and LV geometry, employing the community-based PIVUS cohort. In total, 795 Swedish men and women aged 70 were included of which 164 had an age-adjusted diminished renal function (estimated glomerular filtration rate<60mL/min/1.73m(2)). FGF23 was positively associated with LVMI (beta=0.11, CI 0.01-0.18), with increased odds for the presence of LVH (OR 1.28, CI 1.09-1.51) and for concentric hypertrophy (OR 1.45, CI 1.19-1.77) in the whole population. All associations were stronger in subjects with eGFR<60mL/min/1.73m(2) (beta=0.30, CI 0.15-0.46 for LVMI; OR 1.86, CI 1.30-2.67 for the presence of LVH; OR 1.83, CI 1.17-2.85 and OR 1.87, CI 1.08-3.22 for concentric and eccentric hypertrophy, respectively). The results were essentially unaltered in multivariate models. In summary, elevated serum FGF23 levels, even within the normal range, are associated with increased LVMI and increased risk for the presence of LVH in elderly subjects. Additional longitudinal studies that evaluate the predictive power of FGF23 and whether FGF23 has additional clinical applications are needed.
  •  
50.
  • Nichols, Hazel B, et al. (författare)
  • Breast Cancer Risk After Recent Childbirth : A Pooled Analysis of 15 Prospective Studies
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Annals of Internal Medicine. - : American College of Physicians. - 0003-4819 .- 1539-3704. ; 170:1, s. 22-30
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Parity is widely recognized as protective for breast cancer, but breast cancer risk may be increased shortly after childbirth. Whether this risk varies with breastfeeding, family history of breast cancer, or specific tumor subtype has rarely been evaluated.Objective: To characterize breast cancer risk in relation to recent childbirth.Design: Pooled analysis of individual-level data from 15 prospective cohort studies.Setting: The international Premenopausal Breast Cancer Collaborative Group.Participants: Women younger than 55 years.Measurements: During 9.6 million person-years of follow-up, 18 826 incident cases of breast cancer were diagnosed. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for breast cancer were calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression.Results: Compared with nulliparous women, parous women had an HR for breast cancer that peaked about 5 years after birth (HR, 1.80 [95% CI, 1.63 to 1.99]) before decreasing to 0.77 (CI, 0.67 to 0.88) after 34 years. The association crossed over from positive to negative about 24 years after birth. The overall pattern was driven by estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer; no crossover was seen for ER-negative cancer. Increases in breast cancer risk after childbirth were pronounced when combined with a family history of breast cancer and were greater for women who were older at first birth or who had more births. Breastfeeding did not modify overall risk patterns.Limitations: Breast cancer diagnoses during pregnancy were not uniformly distinguishable from early postpartum diagnoses. Data on human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) oncogene overexpression were limited.Conclusion: Compared with nulliparous women, parous women have an increased risk for breast cancer for more than 20 years after childbirth. Health care providers should consider recent childbirth a risk factor for breast cancer in young women.Primary Funding Source: The Avon Foundation, the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, Breast Cancer Now and the UK National Health Service, and the Institute of Cancer Research.
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