| 1. |
- Thomas, Minta, et al.
(författare)
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Genome-wide Modeling of Polygenic Risk Score in Colorectal Cancer Risk.
- 2020
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Ingår i: American Journal of Human Genetics. - Cambridge : Elsevier BV. - 0002-9297 .- 1537-6605. ; 107:3, s. 432-444
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Accurate colorectal cancer (CRC) risk prediction models are critical for identifying individuals at low and high risk of developing CRC, as they can then be offered targeted screening and interventions to address their risks of developing disease (if they are in a high-risk group) and avoid unnecessary screening and interventions (if they are in a low-risk group). As it is likely that thousands of genetic variants contribute to CRC risk, it is clinically important to investigate whether these genetic variants can be used jointly for CRC risk prediction. In this paper, we derived and compared different approaches to generating predictive polygenic risk scores (PRS) from genome-wide association studies (GWASs) including 55,105 CRC-affected case subjects and 65,079 control subjects of European ancestry. We built the PRS in three ways, using (1) 140 previously identified and validated CRC loci; (2) SNP selection based on linkage disequilibrium (LD) clumping followed by machine-learning approaches; and (3) LDpred, a Bayesian approach for genome-wide risk prediction. We tested the PRS in an independent cohort of 101,987 individuals with 1,699 CRC-affected case subjects. The discriminatory accuracy, calculated by the age- and sex-adjusted area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC), was highest for the LDpred-derived PRS (AUC = 0.654) including nearly 1.2 M genetic variants (the proportion of causal genetic variants for CRC assumed to be 0.003), whereas the PRS of the 140 known variants identified from GWASs had the lowest AUC (AUC = 0.629). Based on the LDpred-derived PRS, we are able to identify 30% of individuals without a family history as having risk for CRC similar to those with a family history of CRC, whereas the PRS based on known GWAS variants identified only top 10% as having a similar relative risk. About 90% of these individuals have no family history and would have been considered average risk under current screening guidelines, but might benefit from earlier screening. The developed PRS offers a way for risk-stratified CRC screening and other targeted interventions.
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| 2. |
- Thomas, Minta, et al.
(författare)
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Response to Li and Hopper
- 2021
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Ingår i: American Journal of Human Genetics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0002-9297 .- 1537-6605. ; 108:3, s. 527-529
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 3. |
- Botvinik-Nezer, Rotem, et al.
(författare)
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Variability in the analysis of a single neuroimaging dataset by many teams
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 582, s. 84-88
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Data analysis workflows in many scientific domains have become increasingly complex and flexible. Here we assess the effect of this flexibility on the results of functional magnetic resonance imaging by asking 70 independent teams to analyse the same dataset, testing the same 9 ex-ante hypotheses(1). The flexibility of analytical approaches is exemplified by the fact that no two teams chose identical workflows to analyse the data. This flexibility resulted in sizeable variation in the results of hypothesis tests, even for teams whose statistical maps were highly correlated at intermediate stages of the analysis pipeline. Variation in reported results was related to several aspects of analysis methodology. Notably, a meta-analytical approach that aggregated information across teams yielded a significant consensus in activated regions. Furthermore, prediction markets of researchers in the field revealed an overestimation of the likelihood of significant findings, even by researchers with direct knowledge of the dataset(2-5). Our findings show that analytical flexibility can have substantial effects on scientific conclusions, and identify factors that may be related to variability in the analysis of functional magnetic resonance imaging. The results emphasize the importance of validating and sharing complex analysis workflows, and demonstrate the need for performing and reporting multiple analyses of the same data. Potential approaches that could be used to mitigate issues related to analytical variability are discussed. The results obtained by seventy different teams analysing the same functional magnetic resonance imaging dataset show substantial variation, highlighting the influence of analytical choices and the importance of sharing workflows publicly and performing multiple analyses.
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| 4. |
- Schunkert, Heribert, et al.
(författare)
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Large-scale association analysis identifies 13 new susceptibility loci for coronary artery disease
- 2011
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Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1546-1718 .- 1061-4036. ; 43:4, s. 153-333
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We performed a meta-analysis of 14 genome-wide association studies of coronary artery disease (CAD) comprising 22,233 individuals with CAD (cases) and 64,762 controls of European descent followed by genotyping of top association signals in 56,682 additional individuals. This analysis identified 13 loci newly associated with CAD at P < 5 x 10(-8) and confirmed the association of 10 of 12 previously reported CAD loci. The 13 new loci showed risk allele frequencies ranging from 0.13 to 0.91 and were associated with a 6% to 17% increase in the risk of CAD per allele. Notably, only three of the new loci showed significant association with traditional CAD risk factors and the majority lie in gene regions not previously implicated in the pathogenesis of CAD. Finally, five of the new CAD risk loci appear to have pleiotropic effects, showing strong association with various other human diseases or traits.
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| 5. |
- Amendoeira, Isabel, et al.
(författare)
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New digital confocal laser microscopy may boost real-time evaluation of endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-needle biopsy (EUS-FNB) from solid pancreatic lesions: Data from an international multicenter study
- 2022
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Ingår i: EBioMedicine. - : ELSEVIER. - 2352-3964. ; 86
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Pancreatic cancer is an aggressive malignancy and a leading cause of cancer death worldwide; its lethality is partly linked to the difficulty of early diagnosis. Modern devices for endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-needle biopsy (EUS-FNB) were recently developed to improve targeting and sampling of small lesions, but innovative technologies for microscopic assessment are still lacking. Ex vivo fluorescence confocal laser microscopy (FCM) is a new digital tool for real-time microscopic assessment of fresh unfixed biological specimens, avoiding conventional histological slide preparation and potentially being highly appealing for EUS-FNB specimens. Methods This study evaluated the possible role of FCM for immediate evaluation of pancreatic specimens from EUS-FNB. It involved comparison of the interobserver agreement between the new method and standard histological analysis during international multicenter sharing of digital images. Digital images from 25 cases of EUS-FNB obtained with real-time FCM technology and 25 paired digital whole-slide images from permanent conventional paraffin sections were observed by 10 pathologists from different Institutions in Europe, Japan, and the United States, in a blinded manner. The study evaluated 500 observations regarding adequacy, morphological clues, diagnostic categories, and final diagnosis. Findings Statistical analysis showed substantial equivalence in the interobserver agreement among pathologists using the two techniques. There was also good inter-test agreement in determining sample adequacy and when assigning a diagnostic category. Among morphological features, nuclear enlargement was the most reproducible clue, with very good inter-test agreement. Interpretation Findings in this study are from international multicenter digital sharing and are published here for the first time. Considering the advantages of FCM digital diagnostics in terms of reduced time and unaltered sample maintenance, the ex vivo confocal laser microscopy may effectively improve traditional EUS-FNB diagnostics, with significant implications for planning modern diagnostic workflow for pancreatic tumors. Copyright (c) 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
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| 6. |
- Belgacem, Imen, et al.
(författare)
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Transcriptomic Analysis of Orange Fruit Treated with Pomegranate Peel Extract (PGE)
- 2019
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Ingår i: PLANTS. - : MDPI AG. - 2223-7747. ; 8:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A Pomegranate Peel Extract (PGE) has been proposed as a natural antifungal substance with a wide range of activity against plant diseases. Previous studies showed that the extract has a direct antimicrobial activity and can elicit resistance responses in plant host tissues. In the present study, the transcriptomic response of orange fruit toward PGE treatments was evaluated. RNA-seq analyses, conducted on wounded fruits 0, 6, and 24 h after PGE applications, showed a significantly different transcriptome in treated oranges as compared to control samples. The majority (273) of the deferentially expressed genes (DEGs) were highly up-regulated compared to only 8 genes that were down-regulated. Gene Ontology (GO) and Kyoto encyclopedia of genes and genomes (KEGG) pathway enrichment analysis showed the involvement of 1233 gene ontology (GO) terms and 35 KEGG metabolic pathways. Among these, important defense pathways were induced and antibiotic biosynthesis was the most enriched one. These findings may explain the underlying preventive and curative activity of PGE against plant diseases.
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| 7. |
- Bentham, James, et al.
(författare)
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A century of trends in adult human height
- 2016
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - 2050-084X. ; 5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.522.7) and 16.5 cm (13.319.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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| 8. |
- Bentham, James, et al.
(författare)
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A century of trends in adult human height
- 2016
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5–22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3– 19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8– 144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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| 9. |
- Bolton, Kelly L., et al.
(författare)
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Association Between BRCA1 and BRCA2 Mutations and Survival in Women With Invasive Epithelial Ovarian Cancer
- 2012
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Ingår i: JAMA: The Journal of the American Medical Association. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 1538-3598. ; 307:4, s. 382-390
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context Approximately 10% of women with invasive epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) carry deleterious germline mutations in BRCA1 or BRCA2. A recent article suggested that BRCA2-related EOC was associated with an improved prognosis, but the effect of BRCA1 remains unclear. Objective To characterize the survival of BRCA carriers with EOC compared with noncarriers and to determine whether BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers show similar survival patterns. Design, Setting, and Participants A pooled analysis of 26 observational studies on the survival of women with ovarian cancer, which included data from 1213 EOC cases with pathogenic germline mutations in BRCA1 (n=909) or BRCA2 (n=304) and from 2666 noncarriers recruited and followed up at variable times between 1987 and 2010 (the median year of diagnosis was 1998). Main Outcome Measure Five-year overall mortality. Results The 5-year overall survival was 36% (95% CI, 34%-38%) for noncarriers, 44% (95% CI, 40%-48%) for BRCA1 carriers, and 52% (95% CI, 46%-58%) for BRCA2 carriers. After adjusting for study and year of diagnosis, BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers showed a more favorable survival than noncarriers (for BRCA1: hazard ratio [HR], 0.78; 95% CI, 0.68-0.89; P<.001; and for BRCA2: HR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.50-0.76; P<.001). These survival differences remained after additional adjustment for stage, grade, histology, and age at diagnosis (for BRCA1: HR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.64-0.84; P<.001; and for BRCA2: HR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.39-0.61; P<.001). The BRCA1 HR estimate was significantly different from the HR estimated in the adjusted model (P for heterogeneity=.003). Conclusion Among patients with invasive EOC, having a germline mutation in BRCA1 or BRCA2 was associated with improved 5-year overall survival. BRCA2 carriers had the best prognosis. JAMA. 2012;307(4):382-390
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| 10. |
- Danaei, Goodarz, et al.
(författare)
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Effects of diabetes definition on global surveillance of diabetes prevalence and diagnosis: a pooled analysis of 96 population-based studies with 331288 participants
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology. - 2213-8595 .- 2213-8587. ; 3:8, s. 624-637
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Diabetes has been defined on the basis of different biomarkers, including fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 2-h plasma glucose in an oral glucose tolerance test (2hOGTT), and HbA(1c). We assessed the effect of different diagnostic definitions on both the population prevalence of diabetes and the classification of previously undiagnosed individuals as having diabetes versus not having diabetes in a pooled analysis of data from population-based health examination surveys in different regions. Methods We used data from 96 population-based health examination surveys that had measured at least two of the biomarkers used for defining diabetes. Diabetes was defined using HbA(1c) (HbA(1c) >= 6 . 5% or history of diabetes diagnosis or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs) compared with either FPG only or FPG-or-2hOGTT definitions (FPG >= 7 . 0 mmol/L or 2hOGTT >= 11 . 1 mmol/L or history of diabetes or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs). We calculated diabetes prevalence, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights. We compared the prevalences of diabetes using different definitions graphically and by regression analyses. We calculated sensitivity and specificity of diabetes diagnosis based on HbA1c compared with diagnosis based on glucose among previously undiagnosed individuals (ie, excluding those with history of diabetes or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs). We calculated sensitivity and specificity in each survey, and then pooled results using a random-effects model. We assessed the sources of heterogeneity of sensitivity by meta-regressions for study characteristics selected a priori. Findings Population prevalence of diabetes based on FPG- or-2hOGTT was correlated with prevalence based on FPG alone (r= 0 . 98), but was higher by 2-6 percentage points at different prevalence levels. Prevalence based on HbA(1c) was lower than prevalence based on FPG in 42 . 8% of age-sex-survey groups and higher in another 41 . 6%; in the other 15 . 6%, the two definitions provided similar prevalence estimates. The variation across studies in the relation between glucose-based and HbA(1c)-based prevalences was partly related to participants' age, followed by natural logarithm of per person gross domestic product, the year of survey, mean BMI, and whether the survey population was national, subnational, or from specific communities. Diabetes defined as HbA(1c) 6 . 5% or more had a pooled sensitivity of 52 . 8% (95% CI 51 . 3-54 . 3%) and a pooled specificity of 99 . 74% (99 . 71-99 . 78%) compared with FPG 7 . 0 mmol/L or more for diagnosing previously undiagnosed participants; sensitivity compared with diabetes defined based on FPG-or-2hOGTT was 30 . 5% (28 . 7-32 . 3%). None of the preselected study-level characteristics explained the heterogeneity in the sensitivity of HbA(1c) versus FPG. Interpretation Different biomarkers and definitions for diabetes can provide different estimates of population prevalence of diabetes, and differentially identify people without previous diagnosis as having diabetes. Using an HbA(1c)-based definition alone in health surveys will not identify a substantial proportion of previously undiagnosed people who would be considered as having diabetes using a glucose-based test.
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| 11. |
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| 12. |
- Harrison, Tabitha A., et al.
(författare)
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Genome-wide association study by colorectal carcinoma subtype
- 2018
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Ingår i: Cancer Research. - : American Association for Cancer Research. - 0008-5472 .- 1538-7445. ; 78:13
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Over 50 genetic variants have been associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) risk through genome-wide association studies (GWAS), yet these variants represent only a fraction of the total estimated heritability. CRC is a heterogenous disease with diverse tumor etiology. Assessing genetic risk in molecular subtypes may help to identify novel loci and characterize genetic risk among tumor subtypes. We used microsatellite instability (MSI), an established CRC classifier with etiological and therapeutic relevance, to define CRC subtypes for GWAS analyses. We conducted a case-case analysis to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for association of genome-wide variants with microsatellite stable (MSS) versus unstable (MSI) carcinomas. We ran an inverse-variance weighted fixed-effects meta-analysis across GWAS in a discovery set of 4,163 population-based CRC cases with harmonized microsatellite instability (MSI) marker and imputed genotype data. For each analysis, we used log-additive logistic regression, adjusting for age, sex, and principal components to account for population substructure. We then followed up with replication of 102 SNPs that reached p-values less than 5x10-6 in 1,698 cases. A total of 845 (20.3%) cancer cases were microsatellite unstable in the discovery population and 174 (10.2%) were unstable in the replication population. No variants reached the genome-wide significance level of 5x10-8 in the discovery set. However, we identified two variants that reached a Bonferroni corrected p-value of 4.0x10-4 in the replication set. This included one variant in MLH1 (Replication: OR=1.74, 95% CI=1.53-1.98, p=1.63x10-5; Discovery+Replication: OR=1.45, 95% CI=1.37-1.54, p=9.76x10-11) and one variant in LOC105377645 (Replication: OR=1.70, 95% CI=1.49-1.94, p=5.13x10-5; Discovery+Replication: OR=1.45, 95% CI=1.37-1.54, p=9.76 x 10-11). The MLH1 gene is a DNA mismatch repair gene implicated in Lynch Syndrome, the hallmark of which is microsatellite instability. This is the first genome-wide scan to identify a common variant in MLH1 that is associated with CRC. This variant (minor allele frequency, MAF = 23% in this all European ancestry population) is located in the 5'-untranslated region of MLH1 and is thought to act as a long-range regulator of DCLK3, a potential tumor driver gene. The second variant, located in LOC105377645 with an MAF of 22%, is in an uncharacterized region of the genome and has not previously been implicated in cancer development. These findings suggest that accounting for molecular heterogeneity is important for discovery and characterization of genetic variants associated with CRC risk. We plan to run polytomous regression analyses, increase our sample size, and further investigate CRC subtypes by CIMP, BRAF mutation, KRAS mutation status.
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| 13. |
- Marczak, Magda, et al.
(författare)
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Problematic Internet Use : Media Portrayal across Eight Countries
- 2020
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Ingår i: Psihologija. - : Drustvo Psihologa Srbije. - 0048-5705 .- 1451-9283. ; 53:4, s. 411-430
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The informational age is marked by the Internet and the media as key factors, with complex mutual interactions. However, they are recognized to increasingly produce negative consequences, such as Problematic Internet Use (PIU) and its inadequate media portrayal. This study represents a comprehensive approach on the media portrayal of PIU via content analysis of national daily newspapers in eight countries from the Eurasian continent. The cross-sectional research included predefined intervals in 2014 and 2018. The search retrieved 212 articles with balanced distribution for designated periods, and predominant publishing in the largest countries. The results revealed that the articles with neutral narratives and national scopes are the most frequent, while the coverage on youth risks (like cyberbullying and excessive social media use) is predominant. This study is a pioneer attempt to give multinational and multi-layered portrayal on the stories that grab the media attention, dictate public interest and guide health policies.
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| 14. |
- Sainz-Jaspeado, Miguel, et al.
(författare)
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Palmdelphin Regulates Nuclear Resilience to Mechanical Stress in the Endothelium
- 2021
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Ingår i: Circulation. - : Wolters Kluwer. - 0009-7322 .- 1524-4539. ; 144:20, s. 1629-1645
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: PALMD (palmdelphin) belongs to the family of paralemmin proteins implicated in cytoskeletal regulation. Single nucleotide polymorphisms in the PALMD locus that result in reduced expression are strong risk factors for development of calcific aortic valve stenosis and predict severity of the disease.Methods: Immunodetection and public database screening showed dominant expression of PALMD in endothelial cells (ECs) in brain and cardiovascular tissues including aortic valves. Mass spectrometry, coimmunoprecipitation, and immunofluorescent staining allowed identification of PALMD partners. The consequence of loss of PALMD expression was assessed in small interferring RNA-treated EC cultures, knockout mice, and human valve samples. RNA sequencing of ECs and transcript arrays on valve samples from an aortic valve study cohort including patients with the single nucleotide polymorphism rs7543130 informed about gene regulatory changes.Results: ECs express the cytosolic PALMD-KKVI splice variant, which associated with RANGAP1 (RAN GTP hydrolyase activating protein 1). RANGAP1 regulates the activity of the GTPase RAN and thereby nucleocytoplasmic shuttling via XPO1 (Exportin1). Reduced PALMD expression resulted in subcellular relocalization of RANGAP1 and XPO1, and nuclear arrest of the XPO1 cargoes p53 and p21. This indicates an important role for PALMD in nucleocytoplasmic transport and consequently in gene regulation because of the effect on localization of transcriptional regulators. Changes in EC responsiveness on loss of PALMD expression included failure to form a perinuclear actin cap when exposed to flow, indicating lack of protection against mechanical stress. Loss of the actin cap correlated with misalignment of the nuclear long axis relative to the cell body, observed in PALMD-deficient ECs, Palmd(-/-) mouse aorta, and human aortic valve samples derived from patients with calcific aortic valve stenosis. In agreement with these changes in EC behavior, gene ontology analysis showed enrichment of nuclear- and cytoskeleton-related terms in PALMD-silenced ECs.Conclusions: We identify RANGAP1 as a PALMD partner in ECs. Disrupting the PALMD/RANGAP1 complex alters the subcellular localization of RANGAP1 and XPO1, and leads to nuclear arrest of the XPO1 cargoes p53 and p21, accompanied by gene regulatory changes and loss of actin-dependent nuclear resilience. Combined, these consequences of reduced PALMD expression provide a mechanistic underpinning for PALMD's contribution to calcific aortic valve stenosis pathology.
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| 15. |
- Schlebusch, Carina M., et al.
(författare)
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Genomic Variation in Seven Khoe-San Groups Reveals Adaptation and Complex African History
- 2012
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 338:6105, s. 374-379
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The history of click-speaking Khoe-San, and African populations in general, remains poorly understood. We genotyped ∼2.3 million SNPs in 220 southern Africans and found that the Khoe-San diverged from other populations ≥100,000 years ago, but structure within the Khoe-San dated back to about 35,000 years ago. Genetic variation in various sub-Saharan populations did not localize the origin of modern humans to a single geographic region within Africa; instead, it indicated a history of admixture and stratification. We found evidence of adaptation targeting muscle function and immune response, potential adaptive introgression of UV-light protection, and selection predating modern human diversification involving skeletal and neurological development. These new findings illustrate the importance of African genomic diversity in understanding human evolutionary history.
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| 16. |
- Zhou, Bin, et al.
(författare)
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Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: A pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier B.V.. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 387:10027, s. 1513-1530
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are aff ecting the number of adults with diabetes.Methods: We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue.Findings: We used data from 751 studies including 4372000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-17.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target.Interpretation: Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults aff ected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries.
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