| 1. |
- Bartels, L. M., et al.
(författare)
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The Forum: Global Challenges to Democracy? Perspectives on Democratic Backsliding
- 2023
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Ingår i: International Studies Review. - 1521-9488. ; 25:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- There is a widespread perception that we are witnessing a period of democratic decline, manifesting itself in varieties of democratic backsliding such as the manipulation of elections, marginalization and repression of regime opponents and minorities, or more incremental executive aggrandizement. Yet others are more optimistic and have argued that democracy is in fact resilient, or that we are observing coinciding trends of democratic decline but also expansion. This forum highlights key issues in the debate on democracy's decline, which center on conceptual and measurement issues, agreement on the phenomenon but not its nature or severity, the importance of international factors, the emphasis we should put on political elites versus citizens, and the consequences of backsliding for global politics. Staffan I. Lindberg provides an empirical perspective on the scope and severity of democracy's decline, and argues that polarization and misinformation are important drivers for this current wave of autocratization. Susan D. Hyde highlights the detrimental consequences of reduced support for democracy by the international community, which has affected civil society organizations-important arbiters of democracy-especially severely. Challenging some of these conclusions, Irfan Nooruddin claims that any gains for democracy after the end of the Cold War were short-lived, failing to sustain democracy because of an overemphasis on elections and a disregard for structural factors. Finally, Larry M. Bartels argues that we need to look to political elites and not citizens if we want to protect democracy in the United States and elsewhere, which has important implications for how we study democracy and its challenges.
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| 2. |
- Coppedge, M, et al.
(författare)
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Conceptualizing and Measuring Democracy: A New Approach
- 2011
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Ingår i: Perspectives on Politics. - 1537-5927 .- 1541-0986. ; 9:2, s. 247-267
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In the wake of the Cold War, democracy has gained the status of a mantra. Yet there is no consensus about how to conceptualize and measure regimes such that meaningful comparisons can be made through time and across countries. In this prescriptive article, we argue for a new approach to conceptualization and measurement. We first review some of the weaknesses among traditional approaches. We then lay out our approach, which may be characterized as historical, multidimensional, disaggregated, and transparent. We end by reviewing some of the payoffs such an approach might bring to the study of democracy.
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| 3. |
- Coppedge, M, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring High-Level Democratic Principles using the V-Dem Data
- 2015
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- While the definition of extended conceptions of democracy has been widely discussed, the measurement of these constructs has not attracted similar attention. In this paper we present new measures of polyarchy, liberal democracy, deliberative democracy, egalitarian democracy, and participatory democracy that cover most polities in the period 1900 to 2013. These indices are based on data from a large number of indicators collected through the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project. A discussion of the theoretical considerations and the concrete formula linked to our aggregation of indicators and components into high level measures is followed by an illustration of how these measures reflect variations in quality of democracy, given the respective ideals, in 2012. In the conclusion we urge scholars to make use of the rich dataset made available by V-Dem.
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| 4. |
- Knutsen, Carl Henrik, et al.
(författare)
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Conceptual and Measurement Issues in Assessing Democratic Backsliding
- 2023
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This paper addresses three interrelated questions. First, how strong is the evidence that democracy has declined globally over the last decade? Second, how should we best measure (change in) democracy? Third, given that much of the recent evidencefor global backsliding comes from measurement projects that rely on expert ratings, is there evidence that experts have become harsher judges of democratic quality in recent years? We begin our analysis with a discussion of how to conceptualize democracy and democratic backsliding, stressing that for contested concepts such as democracy, no one operationalization is likely to reign supreme. We then dissect the distinction between “subjective” and “objective” measures, examining how measurement error can affect even seemingly objective indicators, and highlight how subjectivity pervades all measurement enterprises. Next, focusing on V–Dem’s methodology, we show—through both theoretical considerations and empirical tests—that it is highly unlikely that time-varying expert biases drive recent declines in estimates of the state of global democracy. Finally we evaluate Little and Meng’s (2023) recent attempt to assess the prevailing case for global backsliding using “objective” measures. We demonstrate multiple issues that make their measurement strategy ill-suited to studying trends in global democracy.
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| 5. |
- Knutsen, Carl Henrik, et al.
(författare)
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Conceptual and Measurement Issues in Assessing Democratic Backsliding
- 2024
-
Ingår i: PS-POLITICAL SCIENCE & POLITICS. - 1049-0965 .- 1537-5935.
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- During the past decade, analyses drawing on several democracy measures have shown a global trend of democratic retrenchment. While these democracy measures use radically different methodologies, most partially or fully rely on subjective judgments to produce estimates of the level of democracy within states. Such projects continuously grapple with balancing conceptual coverage with the potential for bias (Munck and Verkuilen 2002; Przeworski et al. 2000). Little and Meng (L&M) (2023) reintroduce this debate, arguing that "objective" measures of democracy show little evidence of recent global democratic backsliding.1 By extension, they posit that time-varying expert bias drives the appearance of democratic retrenchment in measures that incorporate expert judgments. In this article, we engage with (1) broader debates on democracy measurement and democratic backsliding, and (2) L&M's specific data and conclusions.
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
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| 8. |
- Lindberg, Staffan I, 1969, et al.
(författare)
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Aggregating Varieties of Democracy Data
- 2013
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Ingår i: American Political Science Association’s Annual Meeting, Chicago, August 29-September 1.
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project is generating a new dataset of indicators for various facets of democracy. Although many of the indicators are quite useful by themselves, most users of V-Dem data probably require measures of democracy at a higher level of aggregation.This paper discusses the benefits and drawbacks of aggregation, the challenges faced when aggregating V-Dem data, and several strategies that the V-Dem team will employ to deal with these challenges. It may be that some concepts commonly used in democratic theory are not very useful for describing the most salient empirical dimensions of variation and that less prominent, yet familiar, concepts perform this function well. This aggregation effort therefore has the potential to reshape the way we think about what democracy is, what types of democracy there are, what they have in common, and how they differ.
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| 9. |
- Lindberg, Staffan I, 1969, et al.
(författare)
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Electoral Democracy and Human Development
- 2015
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This study reconciles competing positions in the debate over whether democracy improves human development. We argue that electoral competition incentivizes politicians to provide public goods and services, and these, in turn, save lives. Hence, the electoral aspect of democracy should have a substantial impact on human development while other aspects, e.g.related to citizen empowerment or civil liberties,should be less consequential. Extant measures of democracy do not allow for the disambiguation of various components of democracy, which may help to account for the mixed results reported by various studies (contrast Ross 2006 and Gerring et al. 2012).We draw on the new Varieties of Democracy dataset, which provides a highly differentiated set of democracy indicators, and a new collection of mortality data compiled by the Gapminder project. With these tools, we are able to conduct panel analyses that include most (semi-)sovereign countries from 1900 to the present - a much more extensive sample than has ever been mustered for this particular research question. We find that composite indices such as Polity have a tenuous relationship to human development, while indices focused on the electoral component of democracy yield a highly robust relationship.
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| 10. |
- Lindberg, Staffan I, 1969, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring Electoral Democracy with V-Dem Data
- 2014
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Ingår i: American Political Science Association’s Annual Meeting, Chicago, August 28-31, 2014.
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 11. |
- Lindberg, Staffan I, 1969, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring High Level Democratic Principles Using the V-Dem Data
- 2016
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Ingår i: International Political Science Review. - : SAGE Publications. - 0192-5121 .- 1460-373X. ; 37:5, s. 76-111
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- While the definition of extended conceptions of democracy has been widely discussed, the measurement of these constructs has not attracted similar attention. In this article we present new measures of polyarchy, liberal democracy, deliberative democracy, egalitarian democracy, and participatory democracy that cover most polities in the period 1900 to 2013. These indices are based on data from a large number of indicators collected through the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project. We present and discuss the theoretical considerations and the concrete formula underlying the aggregation of indicators and components into high level measures of democracy. In addition, we show how these measures reflect variations in quality of democracy, given the respective ideals, in 2012. In the conclusion scholars are encouraged to make use of the rich dataset made available by V-Dem.
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| 12. |
- Lindberg, Staffan I, 1969, et al.
(författare)
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V-DEM: A NEW WAY TO MEASURE DEMOCRACY
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Democracy. - : Project Muse. - 1045-5736 .- 1086-3214. ; 25:3, s. 159-169
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In the last few decades, Western governments have spent huge sums of money to promote democracy abroad. We do not know which, if any, of these programs actually work. If we cannot measure democracy in sufficient detail and with the necessary nuance, we cannot mark its progress and setbacks or affect its future course. While distinguishing the most democratic countries from the least democratic ones is fairly easy, it has proven to be much harder to make finer distinctions. Here we present a new effort aimed at measuring democracy, the Varieties of Democracy Project (V-Dem). - See more at: http://www.journalofdemocracy.org/article/v-dem-new-way-measure-democracy#sthash.IOAOMU5h.dpuf
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| 13. |
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| 14. |
- McMann, Kelly, et al.
(författare)
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Strategies of Validation: Assessing the Varieties of Democracy Corruption Data
- 2016
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Ingår i: SSRN Electronic Journal. - Gothenburg : V-Dem Institute. - 1556-5068.
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Social scientists face the challenge of determining whether their data are valid, yet they lack practical guidance about how to do so. Existing publications on data validation provide mostly abstract information for creating one's own dataset or establishing that an existing one is adequate. Further, they tend to pit validation techniques against each other, rather than explain how to combine multiple approaches. By contrast, this paper provides a practical guide to data validation in which tools are used in a complementary fashion to identify the strengths and weaknesses of a dataset and thus reveal how it can most e ectively be used. We advocate for three approaches, each incorporating multiple tools: 1) assessing content validity through an examination of the resonance, domain, dierentiation, fecundity, and consistency of the measure; 2) evaluating data generation validity through an investigation of dataset management structure, data sources, coding procedures, aggregation methods, and geographic and temporal coverage; and 3) assessing convergent validity using case studies and empirical comparisons among coders and among measures. We apply our method to corruption measures from a new dataset, Varieties of Democracy. We show that the data are generally valid and we emphasize that a particular strength of the dataset is its capacity for analysis across countries and over time. These corruption measures represent a signi cant contribution to the eld because, although research questions have focused on geographic di erences and temporal trends, other corruption datasets have not been designed for this type of analysis.
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| 15. |
- Teorell, Jan, 1969, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring Electoral Democracy with V-Dem Data: Introducing a New Polyarchy Index
- 2016
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Why is the exercise of political power highly concentrated in some polities and widely dispersed in others? We argue that one persistent causal factor is demographic. Populous polities are characterized by less concentrated structures of authority. To explain this relationship we invoke two mechanisms: efficiency and trust. The theory is demonstrated with a wide variety of empirical measures and in two settings: (1) cross-country analyses including most sovereign states and extending back to the 19th century and (2) within-country analyses focused on states, counties, and localities in the United States.
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| 16. |
- Teorell, Jan, 1969, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring Electoral Democracy with V-Dem Data: Introducing a New Polyarchy Index
- 2016
-
Ingår i: SSRN Electronic Journal. - Gothenburg : V-Dem Institute. - 1556-5068.
-
Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This paper presents a new measure of electoral democracy, or "polyarchy", for a global sample of 173 countries from 1900 to the present based on the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) data enabling us to address several deficiencies in extant measures of electoral democracy, such as Freedom House and Polity. The V-Dem data derive from expert polls of more than 2,600 country experts from around the world, with on average 5 experts rating each indicator. By measuring the five components of “Elected officials”, “Free and fair elections”, “Freedom of expression”, “Associational autonomy” and “Inclusive citizenship” separately, we anchor this new index directly in Dahl’s (1971) extremely influential theoretical framework, and can both show how well indicators match components as well as how components map the overall index. We also findthat characteristics of the V-Dem country experts do not systematically predict their ratings on our indicators, nor differences between these ratings and existing measures such as FH and Polity, with which they are strongly correlated. Finally, we provide systematic measures of uncertainty (or measurement error) at every level.We showcase the usefulness of the new measure for understanding developments of electoral democracy over time, for comparing countries at a particular time point, and for understanding its relationship to economic modernization through disaggregation.
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| 17. |
- Teorell, Jan, 1969, et al.
(författare)
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The Structure of the Executive in Authoritarian and Democratic Regimes: Regime Dimensions across the Globe, 1900-2014
- 2015
-
Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This paper attempts to integrate the literatures on authoritarian regime types and democratic forms of government. Based on different modes of executive appointment and dismissal, we propose a parsimonious theory of five regime dimensions that cut across the democracy/autocracy divide: the hereditary principle; the military principle; the ruling party principle; the presidential and the parliamentary principles, respectively. Relying on the Varieties of Democracy data, we provide alternative measures of these five regime dimensions for 173 countries across the globe from 1900 to today. A plausibility probe gauges the extent to which the five dimensions can predict the level of repression, rent-seeking and spending on public goods across space and time, controlling for the degree of democracy. We conclude by suggesting several avenues for future research that can be pursued with these data.
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| 18. |
- Angiolillo, Fabio, 1994, et al.
(författare)
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Democratic-Autocratic Party Systems: A New Index
- 2023
-
Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Party systems can be split along a democratic-authoritarian dimension in which some parties commit to democracy while others are decidedly more authoritarian. This democracy-autocracy party system (DAPS) dimension differs from other common scales that primarily capture policy differences rather than regime preferences. To apprehend this dimension of political division, we introduce a new empirical framework. Building on existing data on parties’ ideology, we provide a new measurement that defines to what extent a party system is more democratic or authoritarian. This measurement allows us to track the development of the democratic-authoritarian dimension across time between 1970-2019 and space, covering 174 countries for 3,151 election-years. We implement well-established content, convergent, and discriminant validity tests to confirm the reliability of our measurement, along with an empirical application of DAPS’s influence on autocratization and democratization.
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| 19. |
- Angiolillo, Fabio, 1994, et al.
(författare)
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State of the world 2023: democracy winning and losing at the ballot : State of the world 2023
- 2024
-
Ingår i: Democratization. - 1351-0347.
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This article presents trends in democracy, autocracy, and regime transformation using the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) dataset version 14. We offer five main findings. First, the average level of democracy as measured by the Liberal Democracy Index (LDI) continues to decline and has reached the 1985-level when looking at the population-weighted averages. Second, 42 countries are in ongoing episodes of autocratization, and 18 countries are in ongoing episodes of democratization in 2023. Third, we are the first to show that out of the 42 autocratizing countries, 19 are “Bell-turn” autocratizers, while nine out of the 18 democratizers are “U-turns.” Fourth, we unpack the familiar analysis of the three waves of autocratization and democratization by dividing these into the newly discovered stand-alone episodes of autocratization versus Bell-turn episodes, as well as stand-alone episodes of democratization versus U-turn episodes. This analysis suggests that regime volatility has increased in recent years, as a larger share of both autocratization and democratization are made up of Bell-turns and U-turns, respectively. Fifth, out of the 60 countries holding national elections this year, 31 countries are in some degree of decline in democracy, while only three are improving on democracy.
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| 20. |
- Arrington, N. A.N.C.Y., et al.
(författare)
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Constitutional Reform and the Gender Diversification of Peak Courts
- 2021
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Ingår i: American Political Science Review. - 0003-0554 .- 1537-5943. ; 115:3, s. 851-868
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Do the processes states use to select judges for peak courts influence gender diversity? Scholars have debated whether concentrating appointment power in a single individual or diffusing appointment power across many individuals best promotes gender diversification. Others have claimed that the precise structure of the process matters less than fundamental changes in the process. We clarify these theoretical mechanisms, derive testable implications concerning the appointment of the first woman to a state's highest court, and then develop a matched-pair research design within a Rosenbaum permutation approach to observational studies. Using a global sample beginning in 1970, we find that constitutional change to the judicial selection process decreases the time until the appointment of the first woman justice. These results reflect claims that point to institutional disruptions as critical drivers of gender diversity on important political posts.
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| 21. |
- Arrington, Nancy, et al.
(författare)
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Gender Diversity on High Courts
- 2017
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Increasing the diversity of political institutions is believed to improve the quality of political discourse and, subsequently, the quality of political outcomes. Moreover, the presence of diverse officials in positions of power signals the openness and fairness of political institutions. These benets of diversity should be particularly acute in the judiciary, where judges are tasked with the symbolically and substantively powerful duty of interpreting and defending constitutional values. Extant scholarship suggests that well-designed appointment process can promote diversity without explicitly gendered goals, much less quotas. If correct, these proposals raise the possibility of promoting greater diversity without having to resolve politically charged debates about quotas. Yet, scholars disagree about the effects of particular design choices. Worse, estimating causal effects of institutions in observational data is particularly difficult. We develop a research design linked to the empirical implications of existing theoretical arguments to evaluate the effect of institutional change on the gender diversity of peak courts cross-nationally. Speciffically, we consider the effect of an increase (or a decrease) in the number of actors involved in the appointment process. We find mixed results for any existing claim about the role of appointment institutions play in increasing diversity. Yet we also find that any institutional change seems to cause an increase in the gender diversity of peak courts.
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| 22. |
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| 23. |
- Bernhard, M, et al.
(författare)
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Institutional Subsystems and the Survival of Democracy: Do Political and Civil Society Matter?
- 2015
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- How do two central institutional subsystems of democracy – party systems and civil society –affect the persistence of democratic regimes?Despite the ability of each of these institutions to provide sources of countervailing power that make politicians accountable and thus responsive, distributionist accounts of democratic breakdown provide few insights on how such institutions may encourage parties to reach accommodation. We argue that these institutions provide credible threats against anti-system activities that would otherwise threaten the democratic compromise. We test our argument with newly available data from the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project by analyzing all episodes of democratic breakdown from 1900 -2001. Using a split population event history estimator, we find evidence that these institutions not only forestall the timing of breakdowns among transitional democracies but also that a strong party system is critical to setting democratic regimes on the path of consolidation.
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| 24. |
- Bernhard, M., et al.
(författare)
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Institutionalising electoral uncertainty and authoritarian regime survival
- 2020
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Ingår i: European Journal of Political Research. - : Wiley. - 0304-4130 .- 1475-6765. ; 59:2, s. 465-487
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Authoritarian incumbents routinely use democratic emulation as a strategy to extend their tenure in power. Yet, there is also evidence that multiparty competition makes electoral authoritarianism more vulnerable to failure. Proceeding from the assumption that the outcomes of authoritarian electoral openings are inherently uncertain, it is argued in this article that the institutionalisation of elections determines whether electoral authoritarianism promotes stability or vulnerability. By 'institutionalisation', it is meant the ability of authoritarian regimes to reduce uncertainty over outcomes as they regularly hold multiparty elections. Using discrete-time event-history models for competing risks, the effects of sequences of multiparty elections on patterns of regime survival and failure in 262 authoritarian regimes from 1946 to 2010 are assessed, conditioned on their degree of competitiveness. The findings suggest that the institutionalisation of electoral uncertainty enhances authoritarian regime survival. However, for competitive electoral authoritarian regimes this entails substantial risk. The first three elections substantially increase the probability of democratisation, with the danger subsequently diminishing. This suggests that convoking multiparty competition is a risky game with potentially high rewards for autocrats who manage to institutionalise elections. Yet, only a small number of authoritarian regimes survive as competitive beyond the first few elections, suggesting that truly competitive authoritarianism is hard to institutionalise. The study thus finds that the question of whether elections are dangerous or stabilising for authoritarianism is dependent on differences between the ability of competitive and hegemonic forms of electoral authoritarianism to reduce electoral uncertainty.
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| 25. |
- Bernhard, M., et al.
(författare)
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Making Embedded Knowledge Transparent: How the V-Dem Dataset Opens New Vistas in Civil Society Research
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Perspectives on Politics. - : Cambridge University Press (CUP). - 1537-5927 .- 1541-0986. ; 15:2, s. 342-360
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We show how the V-Dem data opens new possibilities for studying civil society in comparative politics. We explain how V-Dem was able to extract embedded expert knowledge to create a novel set of civil society indicators for 173 countries from 1900 to the present. This data overcomes shortcomings in the basis on which inference has been made about civil society in the past by avoiding problems of sample bias that make generalization difficult or tentative. We begin with a discussion of the reemergence of civil society as a central concept in comparative politics. We then turn to the shortcomings of the existing data and discusses how the V-Dem data can overcome them. We introduce the new data, highlighting two new indicesthe core civil society index (CCSI) and the civil society participation index (CSPI)and explain how the individual indicators and the indices were created. We then demonstrate how the CCSI uses embedded expert knowledge to capture the development of civil society on the national level in Venezuela, Ghana, and Russia. We close by using the new indices to examine the dispute over whether post-communist civil society is weak. Time-series cross-sectional analysis using 2,999 country-year observations between 1989 and 2012 fails to find that post-communist civil society is substantially different from other regions, but that there are major differences between the post-Soviet subsample and other post-communist countries both in relation to other regions and each other.
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| 26. |
- Bernhard, M., et al.
(författare)
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Parties, Civil Society, and the Deterrence of Democratic Defection
- 2020
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Ingår i: Studies in Comparative International Development. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0039-3606 .- 1936-6167. ; 55, s. 1-26
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The third wave of democratization has given way to a reverse wave of autocratization. A critical question is what can be done to prevent democratic breakdowns and make democracy endure. A large body of historical-narrative and small-N comparative scholarship has suggested that an active mobilized civil society and institutionalized political parties can be mobilized to protect democracy from authoritarian takeovers. We provide the first rigorous set of empirical analyses to test this argument using data from the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project for the period from 1900 to 2010. We find that both exert a robust, independent, and substantial effect on the survival of democracies. These findings have important policy implications for the international community.
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| 27. |
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| 28. |
- Bernhard, Michael, et al.
(författare)
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The Varieties of Democracy Core Civil Society Index
- 2015
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This paper introduces the Core Civil Society Index (CCSI), a measure of the robustness of civil society, using indicators from the Varieties of Democracy battery on civil society. It begins with a discussion of the reemergence of civil society as a central concept in comparative politics and discusses the existing state of data to capture it. It then discusses the conceptualization behind the CCSI and the construction of the measure. This is followed by a series of face and discriminant validity checks. The paper closes with an example of the CCSI’s utility by examining the question of whether postcommunist civil society is “weak” compared to other regions. We find no evidence that postcommunist civil society is less robust than civil society in other major world regions via time - series cross - sectional analysis using 2999 country - year observations between 1989 and 2012.
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| 29. |
- Bizzarro, Fernando, et al.
(författare)
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Party Strength and Economic Growth
- 2015
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- While a large literature suggests an important role for political parties in economic development, this is the first attempt to lay out a comprehensive theory and a reasonably comprehensive empirical test of the proposition. We argue that strong parties broaden the constituencies to which policy makers respond and help politicians solve coordination problems. These features help ensure better economic management, public services, and political stability. And this, in turn, enhances economic growth. Drawing on a novel measure of party strength from the Varieties of Democracy dataset, we test this theory on data drawn from more than 150 countries, observed annually from 1900–2012. We identify a sizeable effect which is robust to various specifications, estimators, and samples. The effect operates in both democracies and autocracies and is fairly stable across regions and time periods. We also find provisional evidence in favor of causal mechanisms pertaining to public services and political stability.
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| 30. |
- Bizzarro, Fernando, et al.
(författare)
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Party Strength and Economic Growth
- 2018
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Ingår i: World Politics. - 0043-8871 .- 1086-3338. ; 70:2, s. 275-320
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- © Trustees of Princeton University 2018. While a large literature suggests an important role for political parties in development, this article is the first attempt to layout and test a comprehensive theory connecting parties to economic growth. The authors argue that strong parties broaden the constituencies to which policymakers respond and help politicians solve coordination problems. These features help to ensure better economic management, public services, and political stability. And this, in turn, enhances economic growth. Drawing on a novel measure of party strength from the Varieties of Democracy data set, the authors test this theory on data drawn from more than 150 countries observed annually from 1901-2010. They identify a sizeable effect that is robust to various specifications, estimators, and samples. The effect operates in both democracies and autocracies, and is fairly stable across regions and time periods.
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| 31. |
- Boese, Vanessa Alexandra, et al.
(författare)
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Deterring Dictatorship: Explaining Democratic Resilience since 1900
- 2020
-
Ingår i: SSRN Electronic Journal. - Göteborg : Göteborgs universitet. - 1556-5068.
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Democracy is under threat globally from democratically elected leaders engaging in erosion of media freedom, civil society, and the rule of law. What distinguishes democracies that prevail against the forces of autocratization? This article breaks new ground by conceptualizing democratic resilience as a two-stage process, whereby democracies first exhibit resilience by avoiding autocratization altogether and second, by avoiding democratic breakdown given that autocratization has occurred. To model this two-stage process, we introduce the Episodes of Regime Transformation (ERT) dataset tracking autocratization since 1900. These data demonstrate the extraordinary nature of the current wave of autocratization: Fifty-nine (61%) episodes of democratic regression in the ERT began after 1992. Since then, autocratization episodes have killed an unprecedented 36 democratic regimes. Using a selection-model, we simultaneously test for factors that make democracies more prone to experience democratic regression and, given this, factors that explain democratic breakdown. Results from the explanatory analysis suggest that constraints on the executive are positively associated with a reduced risk of autocratization. Once autocratization is ongoing, we find that a long history of democratic institutions, durable judicial constraints on the executive, and more democratic neighbours are factors that make democracy more likely to prevail.
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| 32. |
- Boese, Vanessa Alexandra, et al.
(författare)
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How democracies prevail: democratic resilience as a two-stage process
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Democratization. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1351-0347 .- 1743-890X. ; 28:5, s. 885-907
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This article introduces a novel conceptualization of democratic resilience - a two-stage process where democracies avoid democratic declines altogether or avert democratic breakdown given that such autocratization is ongoing. Drawing on the Episodes of Regime Transformation (ERT) dataset, we find that democracies have had a high level of resilience to onset of autocratization since 1900. Nevertheless, democratic resilience has become substantially weaker since the end of the Cold War. Fifty-nine episodes of sustained and substantial declines in democratic practices have occurred since 1993, leading to the unprecedented breakdown of 36 democratic regimes. Ominously, we find that once autocratization begins, only one in five democracies manage to avert breakdown. We also analyse which factors are associated with each stage of democratic resilience. The results suggest that democracies are more resilient when strong judicial constraints on the executive are present and democratic institutions were strong in the past. Conversely and adding nuance to the literature, economic development is only associated with resilience to onset of autocratization, not to resilience against breakdown once autocratization has begun.
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| 33. |
- Boese, Vanessa Alexandra, et al.
(författare)
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State of the world 2021: autocratization changing its nature?
- 2022
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Ingår i: Democratization. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1351-0347 .- 1743-890X. ; 29:6, s. 983-1013
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This article analyses the state of democracy around the world in 2021. The level of democracy enjoyed by the average global citizen in 2021 was down to 1989 levels. In 2021, autocracies were on the rise, harbouring 70% of the world population, or 5.4 billion people. There was also a record number of countries autocratizing in 2021: 33 countries, home to 36% of the global population. In recent years, the EU seems to be facing its own wave of autocratization, with 20% of its members autocratizing over the last decade. In addition to the continued downturn in global democracy, this article documents several signs that autocratization is changing in nature. Polarization increased substantially and signi?cantly in 40 countries between 2011 and 2021, and our analysis indicates that polarization increasingly damages democracy especially recently and under anti-pluralist governments. Over the past decade, the data also shows that autocratic governments more frequently used misinformation to shape domestic and international opinion. Finally, with ?ve military coups and one self-coup, 2021 featured an unprecedented increase in coups for this century. These coups contributed to the uptick in the number of closed autocracies in 2021 and seem to signal a shift toward emboldened autocratic actors.
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| 34. |
- Boese, Vanessa Alexandra, et al.
(författare)
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Waves of autocratization and democratization: a rejoinder
- 2021
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Ingår i: Democratization. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1351-0347 .- 1743-890X. ; 28:6, s. 1202-1210
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This is a response to Luca Tomini's "Don't think of a wave!" and Svend-Erik Skaaning's "Waves of autocratization and democratization". With this rejoinder we make three arguments: First, the question how global waves shape autocratization processes and regime transformations is now more urgent than ever. Since 1994, civil liberties and political rights of one third of the global population have been substantially and increasingly reduced due to autocratization. Second, waves of any concept can only be studied meaningfully if the underlying concepts as well as the waves are clearly defined. We argue that the conceptualization of episodes of regime transformations (ERT) in the ERT dataset provides exactly such a clear state-of-the-art empirical mapping of processes of democratization and autocratization at the national level. In addition, we highlight how our conceptualization of waves builds upon Huntington, 1993. It even improves upon it by allowing for overlap and modelling it closer to its real world counterpart. Third, we view the present debate as a prime example of fruitful scholastic argument. Ultimately, this is what will generate a better understanding of global trends of democratization and autocratization.
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| 35. |
- Coppedge, Michael, et al.
(författare)
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The Methodology of “Varieties of Democracy” (V-Dem)
- 2019
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Ingår i: BMS Bulletin of Sociological Methodology/ Bulletin de Methodologie Sociologique. - : SAGE Publications. - 0759-1063 .- 2070-2779. ; 143, s. 107-133
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This article describes and discusses the new generation of methodological responses to measuring democracy and related issues generated by Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem). V-Dem is distinct in several regards in addition to its unique level of disaggregation, by the combination of: historical data extending back to 1900 and for a large selection among them to 1789 for many countries in the world; use of multiple, independent coders for each evaluative question; inter-coder reliability tests incorporated into a custom designed Bayesian item-response theory measurement model; provision of confidence bounds for all point estimates associated with expert-coded questions as well as for all indices; multiple indices reflecting varying theories of democracy; fully transparent aggregation procedures; and that all data are made freely available, including original coder-level judgments (exclusive of any personal identifying information).
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| 36. |
- Coppedge, Michael, et al.
(författare)
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V-Dem Comparisons and Contrasts with Other Measurement Projects
- 2017
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- For policymakers, activists, academics, and citizens around the world the conceptualization and measurement of democracy matters. The needs of democracy promoters and social scientists are convergent. We all need better ways to measure democracy. In the first section of this document we critically review the field of democracy indices. It is important to emphasize that problems identified with extant indices are not easily solved, and some of the issues we raise vis-à-vis other projects might also be raised in the context of the V-Dem project. Measuring an abstract and contested concept such as democracy is hard and some problems of conceptualization and measurement may never be solved definitively. In the second section we discuss in general terms how the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project differs from extant indices and how the novel approach taken by V-Dem might assist the work of activists, professionals, and scholars.
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| 37. |
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| 38. |
- Coppedge, Michael, et al.
(författare)
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Varieties of Democratic Diffusion: Colonial Networks
- 2015
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- “No man is an island; some countries are, but even so, no country can be regarded as completely self-determined and unaffected by the world beyond its borders” (Coppedge 2012, 301). This is a widely accepted proposition backed by many empirical studies. Yet stating that countries are in some way affected by external forces only hints at the innumerable possible pathways of influence, which have only begun to be explored. This paper builds on Brinks and Coppedge (2006), which reported that geographic neighbors tend to converge toward a shared level of democracy. Here we look at a completely distinct set of networks: that linking colonies and occupied states to their colonizers or occupiers. We find that convergence in levels of liberal democracy is also the dominant tendency in colonial networks when diffusion relationships are properly specified.
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| 39. |
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| 40. |
- Cornell, Agnes, 1981, et al.
(författare)
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Civil Society, Party Institutionalization, and Democratic Breakdown in the Interwar Period
- 2016
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The relationship between the strength of civil society and democratic survival in the interwar period has been much debated. Prominent studies have questioned the existence of a positive association, arguing that the relationship is conditioned by the level of party institutionalization. This revisionist perspective has been vindicated by case studies of important European cases, in particular Germany and Italy. But due to a lack of cross - national data, neither the direct effect of civil society nor the alternative perspective has so far been subjected to a comprehensive statistical analysis. In this paper we enlist novel data from the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project that enable us to carry out such an assessment of all democratic spells in the interwar years. Our survival analysis demonstrates that a vibrant civil society generally contributed to democratic survival in this period and that this effect was not moderated by the level of party institutionalization.
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| 41. |
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| 42. |
- Edgell, Amanda B, et al.
(författare)
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Establishing Pathways to Democracy Using Domination Analysis
- 2020
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Ingår i: SSRN Electronic Journal. - Göteborg : Göteborgs universitet. - 1556-5068.
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- How does the order in which liberalization unfolds affect the likelihood for a successful democratic transition? Dahl was among the first to argue that the sequence matters for the outcome when it comes to democratization. This paper builds upon his work and empirically analyzes pathways to democracy employing the newly developed method of domination analysis. We are the first to demonstrate three key findings: 1) There is a clear structure in terms of order of how most episodes of liberalization from authoritarian rule develop; 2) Such sequences are different in key respects for failed and successful episodes of liberalization; and 3) Clean election elements - in the capacity of electoral management bodies - stand out as developing earlier in episodes that successfully lead to democracy.
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| 43. |
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| 44. |
- Edgell, A. B., et al.
(författare)
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When and where do elections matter? A global test of the democratization by elections hypothesis, 1900–2010
- 2018
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Ingår i: Democratization. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1351-0347 .- 1743-890X. ; 25:3, s. 422-444
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Successive multiparty elections in sub-Saharan Africa are associated with incremental democratization. Yet tests in other regions are less than encouraging. Non-significant findings on Latin America and post-communist Eurasia, as well as conceptual criticism regarding the theory’s application in the contemporary Middle East, suggest that this may be a case of African exceptionalism. This article moves these debates forward by posing a comprehensive, global set of tests on the democratizing effect of elections. We seek to establish the scope conditions of the argument geographically, temporally, and substantively. Although we find a correlation between reiterated multiparty elections and improvements in the liberal-democratic components of electoral regimes globally since 1900, the relationship is only substantial in the period since the onset of the third wave of democracy. Experiences with iterated multiparty elections have substantive importance for democratization in sub-Saharan Africa, the post-communist region, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Asia. For the Middle East and North Africa, the relationship is weaker and less robust. Finally, the results suggest that reiterated sequences of multiparty elections are associated with improvements to liberal and deliberative components of democracy more so than egalitarian components. © 2017 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
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| 45. |
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| 46. |
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| 47. |
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| 48. |
- Ham, Carolien van, et al.
(författare)
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From Sticks to Carrots: Electoral Manipulation in Africa, 1986-2012
- 2015
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Ingår i: Government and Opposition. - : Cambridge University Press (CUP). - 0017-257X .- 1477-7053. ; 50:3, s. 521-548
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Over 90 per cent of the world's states currently select their national leaders through multiparty elections. However, in Africa the quality of elections still varies widely, ranging from elections plagued by violence and fraud to elections that are relatively free and fair'. Yet, little is known about trade-offs between different strategies of electoral manipulation and the differences between incumbent and opposition actors' strategies. We theorize that choices for specific types of manipulation are driven by available resources and cost considerations for both incumbents and opposition actors, and are mutually responsive. We also suggest that costs of manipulative strategies are shaped by the level of democratization. We test our hypotheses on a time series, cross-sectional data set with observations for 286 African elections from 1986 to 2012. We find that democratization makes cheap' forms of electoral manipulation available to incumbents such as intimidation and manipulating electoral administration less viable, thus leading to increases in vote buying. The future of democracy in Africa thus promises elections where the administration of elections becomes better and better but at the same time vote buying will increase. Not all things go together, at least not all the time. The future of democracy in Africa will mean more money in politics, more patronage and more clientelistic offers thrown around, at least in the short to medium term.
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| 49. |
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| 50. |
- Hellmeier, Sebastian, 1989, et al.
(författare)
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State of the world 2020: autocratization turns viral
- 2021
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Ingår i: Democratization. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1351-0347 .- 1743-890X. ; 28:6, s. 1053-1074
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This article analyses the state of democracy in 2020. The world is still more democratic than it was in the 1970s and 1980s, but a trend of autocratization is ongoing and affecting 25 countries in 2020, home to 34% of the world's population. At the same time, the number of democratizing countries has dwindled by nearly half, reducing to 16 countries, home to a mere 4% of the global population. Freedom of expression, deliberation, rule of law and elections show the most substantial net declines in the last decade. A major change is that India, formerly the world's largest democracy, turned into an electoral autocracy. The V-Dem data suggests that direct effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on levels of liberal democracy were limited in 2020. Still, the longer-term consequences may be worse and must be monitored closely. Due to the pandemic and state restrictions on the freedom of assembly, mass mobilization declined to its lowest level in over a decade, yet the decline in pro-democracy protests in 2020 may well prove to be short-lived once the pandemic subdues.
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