1. |
- Aad, G., et al.
(författare)
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- 2012
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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2. |
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3. |
- Aaltonen, T., et al.
(författare)
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Combination of Tevatron Searches for the Standard Model Higgs Boson in the W+W- Decay Mode
- 2010
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Ingår i: Physical Review Letters. - 0031-9007 .- 1079-7114. ; 104:6, s. 061802-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We combine searches by the CDF and D0 Collaborations for a Higgs boson decaying to W+W-. The data correspond to an integrated total luminosity of 4.8 (CDF) and 5.4 (D0) fb(-1) of p (p) over bar collisions at root s = 1.96 TeV at the Fermilab Tevatron collider. No excess is observed above background expectation, and resulting limits on Higgs boson production exclude a standard model Higgs boson in the mass range 162-166 GeV at the 95% C.L.
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4. |
- Krasilnikov, A., et al.
(författare)
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Evidence of 9 Be + p nuclear reactions during 2ω CH and hydrogen minority ICRH in JET-ILW hydrogen and deuterium plasmas
- 2018
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Ingår i: Nuclear Fusion. - : IOP Publishing. - 1741-4326 .- 0029-5515. ; 58:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The intensity of 9Be + p nuclear fusion reactions was experimentally studied during second harmonic (2ω CH) ion-cyclotron resonance heating (ICRH) and further analyzed during fundamental hydrogen minority ICRH of JET-ILW hydrogen and deuterium plasmas. In relatively low-density plasmas with a high ICRH power, a population of fast H+ ions was created and measured by neutral particle analyzers. Primary and secondary nuclear reaction products, due to 9Be + p interaction, were observed with fast ion loss detectors, γ-ray spectrometers and neutron flux monitors and spectrometers. The possibility of using 9Be(p, d)2α and 9Be(p, α)6Li nuclear reactions to create a population of fast alpha particles and study their behaviour in non-active stage of ITER operation is discussed in the paper.
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5. |
- Bombarda, F., et al.
(författare)
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Runaway electron beam control
- 2019
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Ingår i: Plasma Physics and Controlled Fusion. - : IOP Publishing. - 1361-6587 .- 0741-3335. ; 61:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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6. |
- Joffrin, E., et al.
(författare)
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Overview of the JET preparation for deuterium-tritium operation with the ITER like-wall
- 2019
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Ingår i: Nuclear Fusion. - : IOP Publishing. - 1741-4326 .- 0029-5515. ; 59:11
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- For the past several years, the JET scientific programme (Pamela et al 2007 Fusion Eng. Des. 82 590) has been engaged in a multi-campaign effort, including experiments in D, H and T, leading up to 2020 and the first experiments with 50%/50% D-T mixtures since 1997 and the first ever D-T plasmas with the ITER mix of plasma-facing component materials. For this purpose, a concerted physics and technology programme was launched with a view to prepare the D-T campaign (DTE2). This paper addresses the key elements developed by the JET programme directly contributing to the D-T preparation. This intense preparation includes the review of the physics basis for the D-T operational scenarios, including the fusion power predictions through first principle and integrated modelling, and the impact of isotopes in the operation and physics of D-T plasmas (thermal and particle transport, high confinement mode (H-mode) access, Be and W erosion, fuel recovery, etc). This effort also requires improving several aspects of plasma operation for DTE2, such as real time control schemes, heat load control, disruption avoidance and a mitigation system (including the installation of a new shattered pellet injector), novel ion cyclotron resonance heating schemes (such as the three-ions scheme), new diagnostics (neutron camera and spectrometer, active Alfven eigenmode antennas, neutral gauges, radiation hard imaging systems...) and the calibration of the JET neutron diagnostics at 14 MeV for accurate fusion power measurement. The active preparation of JET for the 2020 D-T campaign provides an incomparable source of information and a basis for the future D-T operation of ITER, and it is also foreseen that a large number of key physics issues will be addressed in support of burning plasmas.
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7. |
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8. |
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9. |
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- 2018
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Ingår i: Nuclear Fusion. - : IOP Publishing. - 1741-4326 .- 0029-5515. ; 58:1
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)
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10. |
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11. |
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12. |
- Aaltonen, T., et al.
(författare)
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Evidence for a Particle Produced in Association with Weak Bosons and Decaying to a Bottom-Antibottom Quark Pair in Higgs Boson Searches at the Tevatron
- 2012
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Ingår i: Physical Review Letters. - 0031-9007 .- 1079-7114. ; 109:7, s. 071804-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We combine searches by the CDF and D0 Collaborations for the associated production of a Higgs boson with a W or Z boson and subsequent decay of the Higgs boson to a bottom-antibottom quark pair. The data, originating from Fermilab Tevatron p (p) over bar collisions at root s = 1.96 TeV, correspond to integrated luminosities of up to 9.7 fb(-1). The searches are conducted for a Higgs boson with mass in the range 100-150 GeV/c(2). We observe an excess of events in the data compared with the background predictions, which is most significant in the mass range between 120 and 135 GeV/c(2). The largest local significance is 3.3 standard deviations, corresponding to a global significance of 3.1 standard deviations. We interpret this as evidence for the presence of a new particle consistent with the standard model Higgs boson, which is produced in association with a weak vector boson and decays to a bottom-antibottom quark pair.
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14. |
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15. |
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16. |
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17. |
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18. |
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19. |
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20. |
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21. |
- Aaltonen, T., et al.
(författare)
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Combination of CDF and D0 measurements of the W boson helicity in top quark decays
- 2012
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Ingår i: Physical Review D. - 1550-7998 .- 1550-2368. ; 85:7, s. 071106-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report the combination of recent measurements of the helicity of the W boson from top quark decay by the CDF and D0 collaborations, based on data samples corresponding to integrated luminosities of 2.7-5.4 fb(-1) of p (p) over bar collisions collected during Run II of the Fermilab Tevatron collider. Combining measurements that simultaneously determine the fractions of W bosons with longitudinal (f(0)) and right-handed (f(+)) helicities, we find f(0) = 0.722 +/- 0.081[+/- 0.062(stat) +/- 0.052(syst)] and f(+) = -0.033 +/- 0.046[+/- 0.034(stat) +/- 0.031(syst)]. Combining measurements where one of the helicity fractions is fixed to the value expected in the standard model, we find f(0) = 0.682 +/- 0.057[+/- 0.035(stat) +/- 0.046(syst)] for fixed f(+) and f(+) = -0.015 +/- 0.035[+/- 0.018(stat) +/- 0.030(syst)] for fixed f(0). The results are consistent with standard model expectations.
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22. |
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24. |
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25. |
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27. |
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28. |
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29. |
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30. |
- Aaltonen, T., et al.
(författare)
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Combination of CDF and D0 W-Boson mass measurements
- 2013
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Ingår i: Physical Review D. - 1550-7998 .- 1550-2368. ; 88:5, s. 052018-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We summarize and combine direct measurements of the mass of the W boson in root s = 1.96 TeV proton-antiproton collision data collected by CDF and D0 experiments at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider. Earlier measurements from CDF and D0 are combined with the two latest, more precise measurements: a CDF measurement in the electron and muon channels using data corresponding to 2.2 fb(-1) of integrated luminosity, and a D0 measurement in the electron channel using data corresponding to 4.3 fb(-1) of integrated luminosity. The resulting Tevatron average for the mass of the W boson is M-W = 80387 +/- 16 MeV. Including measurements obtained in electron-positron collisions at LEP yields the most precise value of M-W = 80385 +/- 15 MeV.
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31. |
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32. |
- Aaltonen, T., et al.
(författare)
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Combination of measurements of the top-quark pair production cross section from the Tevatron Collider
- 2014
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Ingår i: Physical Review D. - 1550-7998 .- 1550-2368. ; 89:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We combine six measurements of the inclusive top-quark pair (t(sic)) production cross section (sigma(t)(sic)) from data collected with the CDF and D0 detectors at the Fermilab Tevatron with proton-antiproton collisions at root s = 1.96 TeV. The data correspond to integrated luminosities of up to 8.8 fb(-1). We obtain a value of sigma tt = 7.60 +/- 0.41 pb for a top-quark mass of m(t) = 172.5 GeV. The contributions to the uncertainty are 0.20 pb from statistical sources, 0.29 pb from systematic sources, and 0.21 pb from the uncertainty on the integrated luminosity. The result is in good agreement with the standard model expectation of 7.35(-0.33)(+0.28) pb at next-to-next-to-leading order and next-to-next-to leading logarithms in perturbative QCD.
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33. |
- Aaltonen, T., et al.
(författare)
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Higgs boson studies at the Tevatron
- 2013
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Ingår i: Physical Review D. - 1550-7998 .- 1550-2368. ; 88:5, s. 052014-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We combine searches by the CDF and D0 Collaborations for the standard model Higgs boson with mass in the range 90-200 GeV/c(2) produced in the gluon-gluon fusion, WH, ZH, t (t) over barH, and vector boson fusion processes, and decaying in the H -> b (b) over bar, H -> W+W-, H -> ZZ, H -> tau(+)tau(-), and H -> gamma gamma modes. The data correspond to integrated luminosities of up to 10 fb(-1) and were collected at the Fermilab Tevatron in p (p) over bar collisions at root s = 1.96 TeV. The searches are also interpreted in the context of fermiophobic and fourth generation models. We observe a significant excess of events in the mass range between 115 and 140 GeV/c(2). The local significance corresponds to 3.0 standard deviations at m(H) = 125 GeV/c(2), consistent with the mass of the Higgs boson observed at the LHC, and we expect a local significance of 1.9 standard deviations. We separately combine searches for H -> b (b) over bar, H -> W+W-, H -> tau(+)tau(-), and H -> gamma gamma. The observed signal strengths in all channels are consistent with the presence of a standard model Higgs boson with a mass of 125 GeV/c(2).
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34. |
- Aaltonen, T., et al.
(författare)
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Observation of s-Channel Production of Single Top Quarks at the Tevatron
- 2014
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Ingår i: Physical Review Letters. - 0031-9007 .- 1079-7114. ; 112:23
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report the first observation of single-top-quark production in the s channel through the combination of the CDF and D0 measurements of the cross section in proton-antiproton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 1.96 TeV. The data correspond to total integrated luminosities of up to 9.7 fb(-1) per experiment. The measured cross section is sigma(s) = 1.29(-0.24)(+0.26) pb. The probability of observing a statistical fluctuation of the background to a cross section of the observed size or larger is 1.8 x 10(-10), corresponding to a significance of 6.3 standard deviations for the presence of an s-channel contribution to the production of single-top quarks.
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35. |
- Aaltonen, T., et al.
(författare)
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Tevatron Run II combination of the effective leptonic electroweak mixing angle
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Physical Review D. - : AMER PHYSICAL SOC. - 2470-0010 .- 2470-0029. ; 97:11
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Drell-Yan lepton pairs produced in the process p (p) over bar -> l(+)l(-) + X through an intermediate gamma*/Z boson have an asymmetry in their angular distribution related to the spontaneous symmetry breaking of the electroweak force and the associated mixing of its neutral gauge bosons. The CDF and D0 experiments have measured the effective-leptonic electroweak mixing parameter sin(2) theta(lept)(eff) using electron and muon pairs selected from the full Tevatron proton-antiproton data sets collected in 2001-2011, corresponding to 9-10 fb(-1) of integrated luminosity. The combination of these measurements yields the most precise result from hadron colliders, sin(2)theta(lept)(eff) = 0.23148 +/- 0.00033. This result is consistent with, and approaches in precision, the best measurements from electron-positron colliders. The standard model inference of the on-shell electroweak mixing parameter sin(2) theta(W), or equivalently the W-boson mass M-W, using the ZFITTER software package yields sin(2) theta(W) = 0.22324 +/- 0.00033 or equivalently, M-W = 80.367 +/- 0.017 GeV/c(2).
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36. |
-
- 2018
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Ingår i: Nuclear Fusion. - : IOP Publishing. - 1741-4326 .- 0029-5515. ; 58:9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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37. |
- Aaltonen, T., et al.
(författare)
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Combined Forward-Backward Asymmetry Measurements in Top-Antitop Quark Production at the Tevatron
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Physical Review Letters. - : AMER PHYSICAL SOC. - 0031-9007 .- 1079-7114. ; 120:4
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The CDF and D0 experiments at the Fermilab Tevatron have measured the asymmetry between yields of forward- and backward-produced top and antitop quarks based on their rapidity difference and the asymmetry between their decay leptons. These measurements use the full data sets collected in proton-antiproton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of root s = 1.96 TeV. We report the results of combinations of the inclusive asymmetries and their differential dependencies on relevant kinematic quantities. The combined inclusive asymmetry is A(FB)(t (t) over bar) = 0.128 +/- 0.025. The combined inclusive and differential asymmetries are consistent with recent standard model predictions.
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38. |
- Aaltonen, T., et al.
(författare)
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Tevatron Combination of Single-Top-Quark Cross Sections and Determination of the Magnitude of the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa Matrix Element V-tb
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Physical Review Letters. - 0031-9007 .- 1079-7114. ; 115:15
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present the final combination of CDF and D0 measurements of cross sections for single-top-quark production in proton-antiproton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 1.96 TeV. The data correspond to total integrated luminosities of up to 9.7 fb(-1) per experiment. The t-channel cross section is measured to be sigma(t) = 2.25(-0.31)(+0.29) pb. We also present the combinations of the two-dimensional measurements of the s- vs t-channel cross section. In addition, we give the combination of the s + t channel cross section measurement resulting in sigma(s+t) = 3.30(-0.40)(+0.52) pb, without assuming the standard model value for the ratio sigma(s)/sigma(t). The resulting value of the magnitude of the top-to-bottom quark coupling is vertical bar V-tb vertical bar = 1.02(-0.05)(+0.06), corresponding to vertical bar V-tb vertical bar > 0.92 at the 95% C. L.
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39. |
- Aaltonen, T., et al.
(författare)
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Tevatron Constraints on Models of the Higgs Boson with Exotic Spin and Parity Using Decays to Bottom-Antibottom Quark Pairs
- 2015
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Ingår i: Physical Review Letters. - 0031-9007 .- 1079-7114. ; 114:15
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Combined constraints from the CDF and D0 Collaborations on models of the Higgs boson with exotic spin J and parity P are presented and compared with results obtained assuming the standard model value J(P) = 0(+). Both collaborations analyzed approximately 10 fb(-1) of proton-antiproton collisions with a center-of-mass energy of 1.96 TeV collected at the Fermilab Tevatron. Two models predicting exotic Higgs bosons with J(P) = 0(-) and J(P) = 2(+) are tested. The kinematic properties of exotic Higgs boson production in association with a vector boson differ from those predicted for the standard model Higgs boson. Upper limits at the 95% credibility level on the production rates of the exotic Higgs bosons, expressed as fractions of the standard model Higgs boson production rate, are set at 0.36 for both the J(P) = 0(-) hypothesis and the J(P) = 2(+) hypothesis. If the production rate times the branching ratio to a bottom-antibottom pair is the same as that predicted for the standard model Higgs boson, then the exotic bosons are excluded with significances of 5.0 standard deviations and 4.9 standard deviations for the J(P) = 0(-) and J(P) = 2(+) hypotheses, respectively.
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40. |
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Overview of the JET results
- 2015
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Ingår i: Nuclear Fusion. - : IOP Publishing. - 0029-5515 .- 1741-4326. ; 55:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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41. |
- Abel, I, et al.
(författare)
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Overview of the JET results with the ITER-like wall
- 2013
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Ingår i: Nuclear Fusion. - : IOP Publishing. - 1741-4326 .- 0029-5515. ; 53:10, s. 104002-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Following the completion in May 2011 of the shutdown for the installation of the beryllium wall and the tungsten divertor, the first set of JET campaigns have addressed the investigation of the retention properties and the development of operational scenarios with the new plasma-facing materials. The large reduction in the carbon content (more than a factor ten) led to a much lower Z(eff) (1.2-1.4) during L- and H-mode plasmas, and radiation during the burn-through phase of the plasma initiation with the consequence that breakdown failures are almost absent. Gas balance experiments have shown that the fuel retention rate with the new wall is substantially reduced with respect to the C wall. The re-establishment of the baseline H-mode and hybrid scenarios compatible with the new wall has required an optimization of the control of metallic impurity sources and heat loads. Stable type-I ELMy H-mode regimes with H-98,H-y2 close to 1 and beta(N) similar to 1.6 have been achieved using gas injection. ELM frequency is a key factor for the control of the metallic impurity accumulation. Pedestal temperatures tend to be lower with the new wall, leading to reduced confinement, but nitrogen seeding restores high pedestal temperatures and confinement. Compared with the carbon wall, major disruptions with the new wall show a lower radiated power and a slower current quench. The higher heat loads on Be wall plasma-facing components due to lower radiation made the routine use of massive gas injection for disruption mitigation essential.
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42. |
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43. |
- Romanelli, F, et al.
(författare)
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Overview of the JET results
- 2011
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Ingår i: Nuclear Fusion. - : IOP Publishing. - 1741-4326 .- 0029-5515. ; 51:9
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Since the last IAEA Conference JET has been in operation for one year with a programmatic focus on the qualification of ITER operating scenarios, the consolidation of ITER design choices and preparation for plasma operation with the ITER-like wall presently being installed in JET. Good progress has been achieved, including stationary ELMy H-mode operation at 4.5 MA. The high confinement hybrid scenario has been extended to high triangularity, lower ρ*and to pulse lengths comparable to the resistive time. The steady-state scenario has also been extended to lower ρ*and ν*and optimized to simultaneously achieve, under stationary conditions, ITER-like values of all other relevant normalized parameters. A dedicated helium campaign has allowed key aspects of plasma control and H-mode operation for the ITER non-activated phase to be evaluated. Effective sawtooth control by fast ions has been demonstrated with3He minority ICRH, a scenario with negligible minority current drive. Edge localized mode (ELM) control studies using external n = 1 and n = 2 perturbation fields have found a resonance effect in ELM frequency for specific q95values. Complete ELM suppression has, however, not been observed, even with an edge Chirikov parameter larger than 1. Pellet ELM pacing has been demonstrated and the minimum pellet size needed to trigger an ELM has been estimated. For both natural and mitigated ELMs a broadening of the divertor ELM-wetted area with increasing ELM size has been found. In disruption studies with massive gas injection up to 50% of the thermal energy could be radiated before, and 20% during, the thermal quench. Halo currents could be reduced by 60% and, using argon/deuterium and neon/deuterium gas mixtures, runaway electron generation could be avoided. Most objectives of the ITER-like ICRH antenna have been demonstrated; matching with closely packed straps, ELM resilience, scattering matrix arc detection and operation at high power density (6.2 MW m-2) and antenna strap voltages (42 kV). Coupling measurements are in very good agreement with TOPICA modelling. © 2011 IAEA, Vienna.
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44. |
- Algaba, Juan-Carlos, et al.
(författare)
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Broadband Multi-wavelength Properties of M87 during the 2017 Event Horizon Telescope Campaign
- 2021
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : American Astronomical Society. - 2041-8213 .- 2041-8205. ; 911:1
-
Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- In 2017, the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) Collaboration succeeded in capturing the first direct image of the center of the M87 galaxy. The asymmetric ring morphology and size are consistent with theoretical expectations for a weakly accreting supermassive black hole of mass ∼6.5 × 109 M o˙. The EHTC also partnered with several international facilities in space and on the ground, to arrange an extensive, quasi-simultaneous multi-wavelength campaign. This Letter presents the results and analysis of this campaign, as well as the multi-wavelength data as a legacy data repository. We captured M87 in a historically low state, and the core flux dominates over HST-1 at high energies, making it possible to combine core flux constraints with the more spatially precise very long baseline interferometry data. We present the most complete simultaneous multi-wavelength spectrum of the active nucleus to date, and discuss the complexity and caveats of combining data from different spatial scales into one broadband spectrum. We apply two heuristic, isotropic leptonic single-zone models to provide insight into the basic source properties, but conclude that a structured jet is necessary to explain M87's spectrum. We can exclude that the simultaneous γ-ray emission is produced via inverse Compton emission in the same region producing the EHT mm-band emission, and further conclude that the γ-rays can only be produced in the inner jets (inward of HST-1) if there are strongly particle-dominated regions. Direct synchrotron emission from accelerated protons and secondaries cannot yet be excluded.
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45. |
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- 2019
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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46. |
- Klionsky, Daniel J., et al.
(författare)
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Guidelines for the use and interpretation of assays for monitoring autophagy
- 2012
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Ingår i: Autophagy. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1554-8635 .- 1554-8627. ; 8:4, s. 445-544
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- In 2008 we published the first set of guidelines for standardizing research in autophagy. Since then, research on this topic has continued to accelerate, and many new scientists have entered the field. Our knowledge base and relevant new technologies have also been expanding. Accordingly, it is important to update these guidelines for monitoring autophagy in different organisms. Various reviews have described the range of assays that have been used for this purpose. Nevertheless, there continues to be confusion regarding acceptable methods to measure autophagy, especially in multicellular eukaryotes. A key point that needs to be emphasized is that there is a difference between measurements that monitor the numbers or volume of autophagic elements (e.g., autophagosomes or autolysosomes) at any stage of the autophagic process vs. those that measure flux through the autophagy pathway (i.e., the complete process); thus, a block in macroautophagy that results in autophagosome accumulation needs to be differentiated from stimuli that result in increased autophagic activity, defined as increased autophagy induction coupled with increased delivery to, and degradation within, lysosomes (in most higher eukaryotes and some protists such as Dictyostelium) or the vacuole (in plants and fungi). In other words, it is especially important that investigators new to the field understand that the appearance of more autophagosomes does not necessarily equate with more autophagy. In fact, in many cases, autophagosomes accumulate because of a block in trafficking to lysosomes without a concomitant change in autophagosome biogenesis, whereas an increase in autolysosomes may reflect a reduction in degradative activity. Here, we present a set of guidelines for the selection and interpretation of methods for use by investigators who aim to examine macroautophagy and related processes, as well as for reviewers who need to provide realistic and reasonable critiques of papers that are focused on these processes. These guidelines are not meant to be a formulaic set of rules, because the appropriate assays depend in part on the question being asked and the system being used. In addition, we emphasize that no individual assay is guaranteed to be the most appropriate one in every situation, and we strongly recommend the use of multiple assays to monitor autophagy. In these guidelines, we consider these various methods of assessing autophagy and what information can, or cannot, be obtained from them. Finally, by discussing the merits and limits of particular autophagy assays, we hope to encourage technical innovation in the field.
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47. |
- Beal, Jacob, et al.
(författare)
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Robust estimation of bacterial cell count from optical density
- 2020
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Ingår i: Communications Biology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2399-3642. ; 3:1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Optical density (OD) is widely used to estimate the density of cells in liquid culture, but cannot be compared between instruments without a standardized calibration protocol and is challenging to relate to actual cell count. We address this with an interlaboratory study comparing three simple, low-cost, and highly accessible OD calibration protocols across 244 laboratories, applied to eight strains of constitutive GFP-expressing E. coli. Based on our results, we recommend calibrating OD to estimated cell count using serial dilution of silica microspheres, which produces highly precise calibration (95.5% of residuals <1.2-fold), is easily assessed for quality control, also assesses instrument effective linear range, and can be combined with fluorescence calibration to obtain units of Molecules of Equivalent Fluorescein (MEFL) per cell, allowing direct comparison and data fusion with flow cytometry measurements: in our study, fluorescence per cell measurements showed only a 1.07-fold mean difference between plate reader and flow cytometry data.
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48. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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49. |
- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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50. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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