| 1. |
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| 2. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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| 3. |
- Meixner, Margaret, et al.
(författare)
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Herschel and ALMA measurements of dust and molecules in supernova 1987A
- 2013
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Ingår i: Proceedings of Science. - 1824-8039. ; Part F113823
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Dust production by supernovae is important in the dust life cycle of a galaxy. The explosion of SN 1987A was the nearest SN detected in the last 400 years, allowing us detailed studies of contemporary evolution of a supernova for the first time. In 2011, Matsuura et al. reported 0.4-0.7 M of dust in SN 1987A based on Herschel HERITAGE survey data, which is surprisingly large compared to prior measurements of supernovae. In this paper, we present our follow-up studies of this important discovery about SN 1987A using the Herschel Space Observatory and the Atacama Large Millimeter Array (ALMA). We highlight two important results, the detection of cold molecular gas and dust in the ejected material of SN 1987A. Our results suggest that SNe are significant producers of dust and molecules, as well as heavy elements, driving chemical evolution of galaxies.
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| 4. |
- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(författare)
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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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| 5. |
- Roelfsema, P. R., et al.
(författare)
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SPICA-A Large Cryogenic Infrared Space Telescope : Unveiling the Obscured Universe
- 2018
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Ingår i: Publications Astronomical Society of Australia. - : Cambridge University Press (CUP). - 1323-3580 .- 1448-6083. ; 35
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Measurements in the infrared wavelength domain allow direct assessment of the physical state and energy balance of cool matter in space, enabling the detailed study of the processes that govern the formation and evolution of stars and planetary systems in galaxies over cosmic time. Previous infrared missions revealed a great deal about the obscured Universe, but were hampered by limited sensitivity. SPICA takes the next step in infrared observational capability by combining a large 2.5-meter diameter telescope. cooled to below 8 K, with instruments employing ultra-sensitive detectors. A combination of passive cooling and mechanical coolers will be used to cool both the telescope and the instruments. With mechanical coolers the mission lifetime is not limited by the supply of cryogen. With the combination of low telescope background and instruments with state-of-the-art detectors SPICA provides a huge advance on the capabilities of previous missions. SPICA instruments offer spectral resolving power ranging from R similar to 50 through 11 000 in the 17-230 mu m domain and R similar to 28.000 spectroscopy between 12 and 18 mu m.SPICA will provide efficient 30-37 mu m broad band mapping, and small field spectroscopic and polarimetric imaging at 100, 200 and 350 mu m. SPICA will provide infrared spectroscopy with an unprecedented sensitivity of similar to 5 x 10(-20) W m (-2) (5 sigma/1 h)-over two orders of magnitude improvement over what earlier missions. This exceptional performance leap, will open entirely new domains in infrared astronomy; galaxy evolution and metal production over cosmic time, dust formation and evolution from very early epochs onwards, the formation history of planetary systems.
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| 6. |
- Wang, Zhaoming, et al.
(författare)
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Imputation and subset-based association analysis across different cancer types identifies multiple independent risk loci in the TERT-CLPTM1L region on chromosome 5p15.33
- 2014
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Ingår i: Human Molecular Genetics. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0964-6906 .- 1460-2083. ; 23:24, s. 6616-6633
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have mapped risk alleles for at least 10 distinct cancers to a small region of 63 000 bp on chromosome 5p15.33. This region harbors the TERT and CLPTM1L genes; the former encodes the catalytic subunit of telomerase reverse transcriptase and the latter may play a role in apoptosis. To investigate further the genetic architecture of common susceptibility alleles in this region, we conducted an agnostic subset-based meta-analysis (association analysis based on subsets) across six distinct cancers in 34 248 cases and 45 036 controls. Based on sequential conditional analysis, we identified as many as six independent risk loci marked by common single-nucleotide polymorphisms: five in the TERT gene (Region 1: rs7726159, P = 2.10 × 10(-39); Region 3: rs2853677, P = 3.30 × 10(-36) and PConditional = 2.36 × 10(-8); Region 4: rs2736098, P = 3.87 × 10(-12) and PConditional = 5.19 × 10(-6), Region 5: rs13172201, P = 0.041 and PConditional = 2.04 × 10(-6); and Region 6: rs10069690, P = 7.49 × 10(-15) and PConditional = 5.35 × 10(-7)) and one in the neighboring CLPTM1L gene (Region 2: rs451360; P = 1.90 × 10(-18) and PConditional = 7.06 × 10(-16)). Between three and five cancers mapped to each independent locus with both risk-enhancing and protective effects. Allele-specific effects on DNA methylation were seen for a subset of risk loci, indicating that methylation and subsequent effects on gene expression may contribute to the biology of risk variants on 5p15.33. Our results provide strong support for extensive pleiotropy across this region of 5p15.33, to an extent not previously observed in other cancer susceptibility loci.
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| 7. |
- Abellán, F. J., et al.
(författare)
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Very Deep inside the SN 1987A Core Ejecta : Molecular Structures Seen in 3D
- 2017
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : Institute of Physics Publishing. - 2041-8205 .- 2041-8213. ; 842:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Most massive stars end their lives in core-collapse supernova explosions and enrich the interstellar medium with explosively nucleosynthesized elements. Following core collapse, the explosion is subject to instabilities as the shock propagates outward through the progenitor star. Observations of the composition and structure of the innermost regions of a core-collapse supernova provide a direct probe of the instabilities and nucleosynthetic products. SN 1987A in the Large Magellanic Cloud is one of very few supernovae for which the inner ejecta can be spatially resolved but are not yet strongly affected by interaction with the surroundings. Our observations of SN 1987A with the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array are of the highest resolution to date and reveal the detailed morphology of cold molecular gas in the innermost regions of the remnant. The 3D distributions of carbon and silicon monoxide (CO and SiO) emission differ, but both have a central deficit, or torus-like distribution, possibly a result of radioactive heating during the first weeks ("nickel heating"). The size scales of the clumpy distribution are compared quantitatively to models, demonstrating how progenitor and explosion physics can be constrained.
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| 8. |
- Matsuura, M., et al.
(författare)
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A STUBBORNLY LARGE MASS OF COLD DUST IN THE EJECTA OF SUPERNOVA 1987A
- 2015
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 800:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present new Herschel photometric and spectroscopic observations of Supernova 1987A, carried out in 2012. Our dedicated photometric measurements provide new 70 mu m data and improved imaging quality at 100 and 160 mu m compared to previous observations in 2010. Our Herschel spectra show only weak CO line emission, and provide an upper limit for the 63 mu m [O-I] line flux, eliminating the possibility that line contaminations distort the previously estimated dustmass. The far-infrared spectral energy distribution (SED) is well fitted by thermal emission from cold dust. The newly measured 70 mu m flux constrains the dust temperature, limiting it to nearly a single temperature. The far-infrared emission can be fitted by 0.5 +/- 0.1M(circle dot) of amorphous carbon, about a factor of two larger than the current nucleosynthetic mass prediction for carbon. The observation of SiO molecules at early and late phases suggests that silicates may also have formed and we could fit the SED with a combination of 0.3M(circle dot) of amorphous carbon and 0.5M(circle dot) of silicates, totalling 0.8M(circle dot) of dust. Our analysis thus supports the presence of a large dust reservoir in the ejecta of SN 1987A. The inferred dust mass suggests that supernovae can be an important source of dust in the interstellar medium, from local to high-redshift galaxies.
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| 9. |
- Reitsma, Marissa B., et al.
(författare)
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Smoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2017
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 389:10082, s. 1885-1906
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The scale-up of tobacco control, especially after the adoption of the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control, is a major public health success story. Nonetheless, smoking remains a leading risk for early death and disability worldwide, and therefore continues to require sustained political commitment. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) offers a robust platform through which global, regional, and national progress toward achieving smoking-related targets can be assessed. Methods We synthesised 2818 data sources with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and produced estimates of daily smoking prevalence by sex, age group, and year for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We analysed 38 risk-outcome pairs to generate estimates of smoking-attributable mortality and disease burden, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We then performed a cohort analysis of smoking prevalence by birth-year cohort to better understand temporal age patterns in smoking. We also did a decomposition analysis, in which we parsed out changes in all-cause smoking-attributable DALYs due to changes in population growth, population ageing, smoking prevalence, and risk-deleted DALY rates. Finally, we explored results by level of development using the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Worldwide, the age-standardised prevalence of daily smoking was 25.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24.2-25.7) for men and 5.4% (5.1-5.7) for women, representing 28.4% (25.8-31.1) and 34.4% (29.4-38.6) reductions, respectively, since 1990. A greater percentage of countries and territories achieved significant annualised rates of decline in smoking prevalence from 1990 to 2005 than in between 2005 and 2015; however, only four countries had significant annualised increases in smoking prevalence between 2005 and 2015 (Congo [Brazzaville] and Azerbaijan for men and Kuwait and Timor-Leste for women). In 2015, 11.5% of global deaths (6.4 million [95% UI 5.7-7.0 million]) were attributable to smoking worldwide, of which 52.2% took place in four countries (China, India, the USA, and Russia). Smoking was ranked among the five leading risk factors by DALYs in 109 countries and territories in 2015, rising from 88 geographies in 1990. In terms of birth cohorts, male smoking prevalence followed similar age patterns across levels of SDI, whereas much more heterogeneity was found in age patterns for female smokers by level of development. While smoking prevalence and risk-deleted DALY rates mostly decreased by sex and SDI quintile, population growth, population ageing, or a combination of both, drove rises in overall smoking-attributable DALYs in low-SDI to middle-SDI geographies between 2005 and 2015. Interpretation The pace of progress in reducing smoking prevalence has been heterogeneous across geographies, development status, and sex, and as highlighted by more recent trends, maintaining past rates of decline should not be taken for granted, especially in women and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. Beyond the effect of the tobacco industry and societal mores, a crucial challenge facing tobacco control initiatives is that demographic forces are poised to heighten smoking's global toll, unless progress in preventing initiation and promoting cessation can be substantially accelerated. Greater success in tobacco control is possible but requires effective, comprehensive, and adequately implemented and enforced policies, which might in turn require global and national levels of political commitment beyond what has been achieved during the past 25 years.
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| 10. |
- Payne, T. E., et al.
(författare)
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Guidelines for thermodynamic sorption modelling in the context of radioactive waste disposal
- 2013
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Ingår i: Environmental Modelling and Software. - : Elsevier BV. - 1364-8152. ; 42, s. 143-156
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Thermodynamic sorption models (TSMs) offer the potential to improve the incorporation of sorption in environmental modelling of contaminant migration. One specific application is safety cases for radioactive waste repositories, in which radionuclide sorption on mineral surfaces is usually described using distribution coefficients (K-d values). TSMs can be utilised to provide a scientific basis for the range of K-d values included in the repository safety case, and for assessing the response of K-d to changes in chemical conditions. The development of a TSM involves a series of decisions on model features such as numbers and types of surface sites, sorption reactions and electrostatic correction factors. There has been a lack of consensus on the best ways to develop such models, and on the methods of determination of associated parameter values. The present paper therefore presents recommendations on a number of aspects of model development, which are applicable both to radioactive waste disposal and broader environmental applications.The TSM should be calibrated using a comprehensive sorption data set for the contaminant of interest, showing the impact of major geochemical parameters including pH, ionic strength, contaminant concentration, the effect of ligands, and major competing ions. Complex natural materials should be thoroughly characterised in terms of mineralogy, surface area, cation exchange capacity, and presence of impurities. During the application of numerical optimisation programs to simulate sorption data, it is often preferable that the TSM should be fitted to the experimentally determined K-d parameter, rather than to the frequently used percentage sorbed. Two different modelling approaches, the component additivity and generalised composite, can be used for modelling sorption data for complex materials such as soils. Both approaches may be coupled to the same critically reviewed aqueous thermodynamic data sets, and may incorporate the same, or similar, surface reactions and surface species. The quality of the final sorption model can be assessed against the following characteristics: an appropriate level of complexity, documented and traceable decisions, internal consistency, limitations on the number of adjustable parameter values, an adequate fit to a comprehensive calibration data set, and capability of simulating independent data sets. Key recommendations for the process of TSM development include: definition of modelling objectives, identification of major decision points, a clear decision-making rationale with reference to experimental or theoretical evidence, utilisation of a suitable consultative and iterative model development process, testing to the maximum practicable extent, and thorough documentation of key decisions. These recommendations are consistent with international benchmarks for environmental modelling.
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| 11. |
- Sewiło, Marta, et al.
(författare)
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Complex Organic Molecules in Star-Forming Regions of the Magellanic Clouds
- 2019
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Ingår i: ACS Earth and Space Chemistry. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 2472-3452. ; 3:10, s. 2088-2109
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Large and Small Magellanic Clouds (LMC and SMC), gas-rich dwarf companions of the Milky Way, are the nearest laboratories for detailed studies on the formation and survival of complex organic molecules (COMs) under metal-poor conditions. To date, only methanol, methyl formate, and dimethyl ether have been detected in these galaxies-all three toward two hot cores in the N113 star-forming region in the LMC, the only extragalactic sources exhibiting complex hot-core chemistry. We describe a small and diverse sample of the LMC and SMC sources associated with COMs or hot-core chemistry, and compare the observations to theoretical model predictions. Theoretical models accounting for the physical conditions and metallicity of hot molecular cores in the Magellanic Clouds have been able to broadly account for the existing observations, but they fail to reproduce the dimethyl ether abundance by more than an order of magnitude. We discuss future prospects for research in the field of complex chemistry in the low-metallicity environment. The detection of COMs in the Magellanic Clouds has important implications for astrobiology. The metallicity of the Magellanic Clouds is similar to that of galaxies in the earlier epochs of the universe; thus, the presence of COMs in the LMC and SMC indicates that a similar prebiotic chemistry leading to the emergence of life, as it happened on Earth, is possible in low-metallicity systems in the earlier universe.
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