| 1. |
- Bryazka, D., et al.
(författare)
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Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020
- 2022
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Ingår i: Lancet. - 0140-6736. ; 400:10347, s. 185-235
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year. Methods For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15-95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol. Findings The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15-39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0-0) and 0.603 (0.400-1.00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0.002 (0-0) and 1.75 (0.698-4.30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0.114 (0-0.403) to 1.87 (0.500-3.30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0.193 (0-0.900) and 6.94 (3.40-8.30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59.1% (54.3-65.4) were aged 15-39 years and 76.9% (7.0-81.3) were male. Interpretation There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Haagsma, J. A., et al.
(författare)
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The burden of injury in Central, Eastern, and Western European sub-region: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study
- 2022
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Ingår i: Archives of Public Health. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0778-7367 .- 2049-3258. ; 80:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Injury remains a major concern to public health in the European region. Previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study showed wide variation in injury death and disability adjusted life year (DALY) rates across Europe, indicating injury inequality gaps between sub-regions and countries. The objectives of this study were to: 1) compare GBD 2019 estimates on injury mortality and DALYs across European sub-regions and countries by cause-of-injury category and sex; 2) examine changes in injury DALY rates over a 20 year-period by cause-of-injury category, sub-region and country; and 3) assess inequalities in injury mortality and DALY rates across the countries. Methods We performed a secondary database descriptive study using the GBD 2019 results on injuries in 44 European countries from 2000 to 2019. Inequality in DALY rates between these countries was assessed by calculating the DALY rate ratio between the highest-ranking country and lowest-ranking country in each year. Results In 2019, in Eastern Europe 80 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 71 to 89] people per 100,000 died from injuries; twice as high compared to Central Europe (38 injury deaths per 100,000; 95% UI 34 to 42) and three times as high compared to Western Europe (27 injury deaths per 100,000; 95%UI 25 to 28). The injury DALY rates showed less pronounced differences between Eastern (5129 DALYs per 100,000; 95% UI: 4547 to 5864), Central (2940 DALYs per 100,000; 95% UI: 2452 to 3546) and Western Europe (1782 DALYs per 100,000; 95% UI: 1523 to 2115). Injury DALY rate was lowest in Italy (1489 DALYs per 100,000) and highest in Ukraine (5553 DALYs per 100,000). The difference in injury DALY rates by country was larger for males compared to females. The DALY rate ratio was highest in 2005, with DALY rate in the lowest-ranking country (Russian Federation) 6.0 times higher compared to the highest-ranking country (Malta). After 2005, the DALY rate ratio between the lowest- and the highest-ranking country gradually decreased to 3.7 in 2019. Conclusions Injury mortality and DALY rates were highest in Eastern Europe and lowest in Western Europe, although differences in injury DALY rates declined rapidly, particularly in the past decade. The injury DALY rate ratio of highest- and lowest-ranking country declined from 2005 onwards, indicating declining inequalities in injuries between European countries.
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Stafoggia, M., et al.
(författare)
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Joint effect of heat and air pollution on mortality in 620 cities of 36 countries
- 2023
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Ingår i: Environment International. - : Elsevier. - 0160-4120 .- 1873-6750. ; 181
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: The epidemiological evidence on the interaction between heat and ambient air pollution on mor-tality is still inconsistent. Objectives: To investigate the interaction between heat and ambient air pollution on daily mortality in a large dataset of 620 cities from 36 countries. Methods: We used daily data on all-cause mortality, air temperature, particulate matter <= 10 mu m (PM10), PM <= 2.5 mu m (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3) from 620 cities in 36 countries in the period 1995-2020. We restricted the analysis to the six consecutive warmest months in each city. City-specific data were analysed with over-dispersed Poisson regression models, followed by a multilevel random-effects meta-analysis. The joint association between air temperature and air pollutants was modelled with product terms between non-linear functions for air temperature and linear functions for air pollutants. Results: We analyzed 22,630,598 deaths. An increase in mean temperature from the 75th to the 99th percentile of city-specific distributions was associated with an average 8.9 % (95 % confidence interval: 7.1 %, 10.7 %) mortality increment, ranging between 5.3 % (3.8 %, 6.9 %) and 12.8 % (8.7 %, 17.0 %), when daily PM10 was equal to 10 or 90 mu g/m3, respectively. Corresponding estimates when daily O3 concentrations were 40 or 160 mu g/ m3 were 2.9 % (1.1 %, 4.7 %) and 12.5 % (6.9 %, 18.5 %), respectively. Similarly, a 10 mu g/m3 increment in PM10 was associated with a 0.54 % (0.10 %, 0.98 %) and 1.21 % (0.69 %, 1.72 %) increase in mortality when daily air temperature was set to the 1st and 99th city-specific percentiles, respectively. Corresponding mortality estimate for O3 across these temperature percentiles were 0.00 % (-0.44 %, 0.44 %) and 0.53 % (0.38 %, 0.68 %). Similar effect modification results, although slightly weaker, were found for PM2.5 and NO2. Conclusions: Suggestive evidence of effect modification between air temperature and air pollutants on mortality during the warm period was found in a global dataset of 620 cities.
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Macfarlane, M. D., et al.
(författare)
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Shape abnormalities of the caudate nucleus correlate with poorer gait and balance: Results from a subset of the ladis study
- 2015
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Ingår i: The American journal of geriatric psychiatry. - : Elsevier BV. - 1064-7481. ; 23:1, s. 59-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective Functional deficits seen in several neurodegenerative disorders have been linked with dysfunction in frontostriatal circuits and with associated shape alterations in striatal structures. The severity of visible white matter hyperintensities (WMHs) on magnetic resonance imaging has been found to correlate with poorer performance on measures of gait and balance. This study aimed to determine whether striatal volume and shape changes were correlated with gait dysfunction. Methods Magnetic resonance imaging scans and clinical gait/balance data (scores from the Short Physical Performance Battery [SPPB]) were sourced from 66 subjects in the previously published LADIS trial, performed in nondisabled individuals older than age 65 years with WMHs at study entry. Data were obtained at study entry and at 3-year follow-up. Caudate nuclei and putamina were manually traced using a previously published method and volumes calculated. The relationships between volume and physical performance on the SPPB were investigated with shape analysis using the spherical harmonic shape description toolkit. Results There was no correlation between the severity of WMHs and striatal volumes. Caudate nuclei volume correlated with performance on the SPPB at baseline but not at follow-up, with subsequent shape analysis showing left caudate changes occurred in areas corresponding to inputs of the dorsolateral prefrontal, premotor, and motor cortex. There was no correlation between putamen volumes and performance on the SPPB. Conclusion Disruption in frontostriatal circuits may play a role in mediating poorer physical performance in individuals with WMHs. Striatal volume and shape changes may be suitable biomarkers for functional changes in this population. © 2015 American Association for Geriatric Psychiatry.
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| 8. |
- Vicedo-Cabrera, A.M., et al.
(författare)
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The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change
- 2021
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Ingår i: Nature Climate Change. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 11:6, s. 492-500
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991–2018. Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5–76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent. Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations. Our findings support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change.
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Benisty, S, et al.
(författare)
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Location of lacunar infarcts correlates with cognition in a sample of non-disabled subjects with age-related white-matter changes: the LADIS study.
- 2009
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Ingår i: Journal of neurology, neurosurgery, and psychiatry. - : BMJ. - 1468-330X .- 0022-3050. ; 80:5, s. 478-83
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVES: In cerebral small vessel disease, white-matter hyperintensities (WMH) and lacunes are both related to cognition. Still, their respective contribution in older people remains unclear. The purpose of this study is to assess the topographic distribution of lacunes and determine whether it has an impact on cognitive functions in a sample of non-disabled patients with age-related white-matter changes. METHODS: Data were drawn from the baseline evaluation of the LADIS (Leucoaraioisis and Disability study) cohort of non-disabled subjects beyond 65 years of age. The neuropsychological evaluation was based on the Mini Mental Status Examination (MMSE), a modified Alzheimer Diseases Assessment Scale for global cognitive functions, and compound Z scores for memory, executive functions, speed and motor control. WMH were rated according to the Fazekas scale; the number of lacunes was assessed in the following areas: lobar white matter, putamen/pallidum, thalamus, caudate nucleus, internal/external capsule, infratentorial areas. An analysis of covariance was performed after adjustment for possible confounders. RESULTS: Among 633 subjects, 47% had at least one lacune (31% at least one within basal ganglia). The presence of lacunes in the thalamus was associated with lower scores of MMSE (beta = -0.61; p = 0.043), and worse compound scores for speed and motor control (beta = -0.25; p = 0.006), executive functions (beta = -0.19; p = 0.022) independently of the cognitive impact of WMH. There was also a significant negative association between the presence of lacunes in putamen/pallidum and the memory compound Z score (beta = -0.13; p = 0.038). By contrast, no significant negative association was found between cognitive parameters and the presence of lacunes in internal capsule, lobar white matter and caudate nucleus. CONCLUSION: In non-disabled elderly subjects with leucoaraisosis, the location of lacunes within subcortical grey matter is a determinant of cognitive impairment, independently of the extent of WMH.
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| 11. |
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| 12. |
- Frederiksen, K. S., et al.
(författare)
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Physical activity in the elderly is associated with improved executive function and processing speed: the LADIS Study
- 2015
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Ingår i: International Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry. - : Wiley. - 0885-6230 .- 1099-1166. ; 30:7, s. 744-750
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- ObjectivesPhysical activity reduces the risk of cognitive decline but may affect cognitive domains differently. We examined whether physical activity modifies processing speed, executive function and memory in a population of non-dementia elderly subjects with age-related white matter changes (ARWMC). MethodsData from the Leukoaraiosis And DISability (LADIS) study, a multicenter, European prospective cohort study aimed at examining the role of ARWMC in transition to disability, was used. Subjects in the LADIS study were clinically assessed yearly for 3years including MRI at baseline and 3-year follow-up. Physical activity was assessed at baseline, and cognitive compound scores at baseline and 3-year assessment were used. ResultsTwo-hundred-eighty-two subjects (age, y (mean (SD)): 73.1 (5.1); gender (f/m): 164/118); MMSE (mean (SD)): 28.3 (+/- 1.7)) who had not progressed to MCI or dementia, were included. Multiple variable linear regression analysis with baseline MMSE, education, gender, age, stroke, diabetes and ARWMC rating as covariates revealed that physical activity was associated with better scores at baseline and 3-year follow-up for executive function (baseline: : 0.39, 95% CI: 0.13-0.90, p=0.008; follow-up: : 0.24, 95% CI: 0.10-0.38, p=0.001) and processing speed (baseline: : 0.48, 95% CI: 0.14-0.89, p=0.005; follow-up: : 0.15, 95% CI: 0.02-0.29, p=0.02) but not memory. When including baseline cognitive score as a covariate in the analysis of 3-year follow-up scores, executive function remained significant (: 0.11, 95% CI: 0-0.22, p=0.04). ConclusionOur findings confirm previous findings of a positive effect of physical activity on cognitive functions in elderly subjects, and further extends these by showing that the association is also present in patients with ARWMC. Copyright (c) 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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| 13. |
- Jokinen, H., et al.
(författare)
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Diffusion changes predict cognitive and functional outcome: The LADIS study
- 2013
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Ingår i: Annals of Neurology. - : Wiley. - 0364-5134. ; 73:5, s. 576-583
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective A study was undertaken to determine whether diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) abnormalities in normal-appearing brain tissue (NABT) and in white matter hyperintensities (WMH) predict longitudinal cognitive decline and disability in older individuals independently of the concomitant magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings. Methods A total of 340 LADIS (Leukoaraiosis and Disability Study) participants, aged 65 to 84 years, underwent brain MRI including DWI at baseline. Neuropsychological and functional assessments were carried out at study entry and repeated annually over a 3-year observational period. Linear mixed models and Cox regression survival analysis adjusted for demographics, WMH volume, lacunes, and brain atrophy were used to evaluate the independent effect of the DWI measures on change in cognitive performance and functional abilities. Results The mean global apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) and the relative peak height and peak position of the ADC histogram in NABT predicted faster rate of decline in a composite score for speed and motor control. Higher mean ADC and lower peak height were also related to deterioration in executive functions and memory (specifically working memory), with peak height also being related to more rapid transition to disability and higher rate of mortality. Mean ADC in WMH had less pronounced effects on cognitive and functional outcomes. Interpretation DWI microstructural changes in NABT predict faster decline in psychomotor speed, executive functions, and working memory regardless of conventional MRI findings. Moreover, these changes are related to functional disability and higher mortality. Ann Neurol 2013;73:576–583
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| 14. |
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| 15. |
- Jokinen, H., et al.
(författare)
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Global Burden of Small Vessel Disease-Related Brain Changes on MRI Predicts Cognitive and Functional Decline
- 2020
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Ingår i: Stroke. - : Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health). - 0039-2499 .- 1524-4628. ; 51:1, s. 170-178
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background and Purpose- Cerebral small vessel disease is characterized by a wide range of focal and global brain changes. We used a magnetic resonance imaging segmentation tool to quantify multiple types of small vessel disease-related brain changes and examined their individual and combined predictive value on cognitive and functional abilities. Methods- Magnetic resonance imaging scans of 560 older individuals from LADIS (Leukoaraiosis and Disability Study) were analyzed using automated atlas- and convolutional neural network-based segmentation methods yielding volumetric measures of white matter hyperintensities, lacunes, enlarged perivascular spaces, chronic cortical infarcts, and global and regional brain atrophy. The subjects were followed up with annual neuropsychological examinations for 3 years and evaluation of instrumental activities of daily living for 7 years. Results- The strongest predictors of cognitive performance and functional outcome over time were the total volumes of white matter hyperintensities, gray matter, and hippocampi (P<0.001 for global cognitive function, processing speed, executive functions, and memory and P<0.001 for poor functional outcome). Volumes of lacunes, enlarged perivascular spaces, and cortical infarcts were significantly associated with part of the outcome measures, but their contribution was weaker. In a multivariable linear mixed model, volumes of white matter hyperintensities, lacunes, gray matter, and hippocampi remained as independent predictors of cognitive impairment. A combined measure of these markers based on Z scores strongly predicted cognitive and functional outcomes (P<0.001) even above the contribution of the individual brain changes. Conclusions- Global burden of small vessel disease-related brain changes as quantified by an image segmentation tool is a powerful predictor of long-term cognitive decline and functional disability. A combined measure of white matter hyperintensities, lacunar, gray matter, and hippocampal volumes could be used as an imaging marker associated with vascular cognitive impairment.
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| 16. |
- Chen, Gongbo, et al.
(författare)
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Mortality risk attributable to wildfire-related PM2·5 pollution : a global time series study in 749 locations
- 2021
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Ingår i: The Lancet Planetary Health. - : Elsevier. - 2542-5196. ; 5:9, s. e579-e587
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Many regions of the world are now facing more frequent and unprecedentedly large wildfires. However, the association between wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality has not been well characterised. We aimed to comprehensively assess the association between short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality across various regions of the world.METHODS: For this time series study, data on daily counts of deaths for all causes, cardiovascular causes, and respiratory causes were collected from 749 cities in 43 countries and regions during 2000-16. Daily concentrations of wildfire-related PM2·5 were estimated using the three-dimensional chemical transport model GEOS-Chem at a 0·25° × 0·25° resolution. The association between wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure and mortality was examined using a quasi-Poisson time series model in each city considering both the current-day and lag effects, and the effect estimates were then pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. Based on these pooled effect estimates, the population attributable fraction and relative risk (RR) of annual mortality due to acute wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure was calculated.FINDINGS: 65·6 million all-cause deaths, 15·1 million cardiovascular deaths, and 6·8 million respiratory deaths were included in our analyses. The pooled RRs of mortality associated with each 10 μg/m3 increase in the 3-day moving average (lag 0-2 days) of wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure were 1·019 (95% CI 1·016-1·022) for all-cause mortality, 1·017 (1·012-1·021) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1·019 (1·013-1·025) for respiratory mortality. Overall, 0·62% (95% CI 0·48-0·75) of all-cause deaths, 0·55% (0·43-0·67) of cardiovascular deaths, and 0·64% (0·50-0·78) of respiratory deaths were annually attributable to the acute impacts of wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure during the study period.INTERPRETATION: Short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 was associated with increased risk of mortality. Urgent action is needed to reduce health risks from the increasing wildfires.
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| 17. |
- Chen, Kai, et al.
(författare)
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Ambient carbon monoxide and daily mortality: a global time-series study in 337 cities
- 2021
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Ingår i: The Lancet Planetary Health. - 2542-5196. ; 5:4, s. e191-e199
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Epidemiological evidence on short-term association between ambient carbon monoxide (CO) and mortality is inconclusive and limited to single cities, regions, or countries. Generalisation of results from previous studies is hindered by potential publication bias and different modelling approaches. We therefore assessed the association between short-term exposure to ambient CO and daily mortality in a multicity, multicountry setting. Methods: We collected daily data on air pollution, meteorology, and total mortality from 337 cities in 18 countries or regions, covering various periods from 1979 to 2016. All included cities had at least 2 years of both CO and mortality data. We estimated city-specific associations using confounder-adjusted generalised additive models with a quasi-Poisson distribution, and then pooled the estimates, accounting for their statistical uncertainty, using a random-effects multilevel meta-analytical model. We also assessed the overall shape of the exposure–response curve and evaluated the possibility of a threshold below which health is not affected. Findings: Overall, a 1 mg/m3 increase in the average CO concentration of the previous day was associated with a 0·91% (95% CI 0·32–1·50) increase in daily total mortality. The pooled exposure–response curve showed a continuously elevated mortality risk with increasing CO concentrations, suggesting no threshold. The exposure–response curve was steeper at daily CO levels lower than 1 mg/m3, indicating greater risk of mortality per increment in CO exposure, and persisted at daily concentrations as low as 0·6 mg/m3 or less. The association remained similar after adjustment for ozone but was attenuated after adjustment for particulate matter or sulphur dioxide, or even reduced to null after adjustment for nitrogen dioxide. Interpretation: This international study is by far the largest epidemiological investigation on short-term CO-related mortality. We found significant associations between ambient CO and daily mortality, even at levels well below current air quality guidelines. Further studies are warranted to disentangle its independent effect from other traffic-related pollutants. Funding: EU Horizon 2020, UK Medical Research Council, and Natural Environment Research Council.
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| 18. |
- Crochiquia, Alice, et al.
(författare)
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A phonetic study of Zootopia characters’ voices inBrazilian Portuguese dubbing : the role of stereotypes
- 2020
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Ingår i: DELTA. - 0102-4450 .- 1678-460X. ; 36:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This work comprises an experimental investigation approach of expressive speech that integrates methodological procedures of perceptual and acoustic analyses. As the object of this work, we have focused on voice quality and vocal dynamics. Speech samples from the four main personality-distinct characters in the animated feature film “Zootopia” dubbed by Brazilian voice actors have been analysed. Due to the expressive function of voice quality, we have posed the following question: what types of voice quality and vocal dynamics settings were used by the voice actors in the Brazilian dubbing of “Zootopia” to compose the vocal profiles of the characters? Perceptual evaluation of the 54 speech stimuli was performed using the Vocal Profile Analysis protocol (Laver & Mackenzie Beck, 2007). Acoustic measures were automatically extracted using the Expression Evaluator script (Barbosa, 2008) for PRAAT. The profiles for each of the four characters were composed based on the psychological traits described in the film script. The results of the acoustic analysis, the perceptual analysis of voice quality and vocal dynamics settings were correlated using the MFA (Multiple Factor Analysis) method in the R environment based on 40 variables (quantitative and qualitative) and it turned out that the speech stimuli were distributed in 6 clusters according to the variables analysed. The quantitative variables that presented the highest correlation percentage were: Standard Deviation of f0 Derivative, Standard Deviation of Spectral Tilt, f0 Median. The qualitative variables that presented the highest correlation percentage were: Lowered Larynx, Lip Rounding, Breathy Voice and Minimised Pitch Range. The research has presented evidence in favor of the symbolic use of phonic matter and contributions to the understanding of how vocal stereotypes are established.
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| 19. |
- Domingo, Nina G.G., et al.
(författare)
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Ozone-related acute excess mortality projected to increase in the absence of climate and air quality controls consistent with the Paris Agreement
- 2024
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Ingår i: One Earth. - : Elsevier. - 2590-3330 .- 2590-3322. ; 7:2, s. 325-335
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Short-term exposure to ground-level ozone in cities is associated with increased mortality and is expected to worsen with climate and emission changes. However, no study has yet comprehensively assessed future ozone-related acute mortality across diverse geographic areas, various climate scenarios, and using CMIP6 multi-model ensembles, limiting our knowledge on future changes in global ozone-related acute mortality and our ability to design targeted health policies. Here, we combine CMIP6 simulations and epidemiological data from 406 cities in 20 countries or regions. We find that ozone-related deaths in 406 cities will increase by 45 to 6,200 deaths/year between 2010 and 2014 and between 2050 and 2054, with attributable fractions increasing in all climate scenarios (from 0.17% to 0.22% total deaths), except the single scenario consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement (declines from 0.17% to 0.15% total deaths). These findings stress the need for more stringent air quality regulations, as current standards in many countries are inadequate.
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| 20. |
- Jokinen, H., et al.
(författare)
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Brain atrophy accelerates cognitive decline in cerebral small vessel disease The LADIS study
- 2012
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Ingår i: Neurology. - 0028-3878. ; 78:22, s. 1785-1792
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: To examine the independent contributions and combined interactions of medial temporal lobe atrophy (MTA), cortical and subcortical atrophy, and white matter lesion (WML) volume in longitudinal cognitive performance. Methods: A total of 477 subjects with age-related WML were evaluated with brain MRI and annual neuropsychological examinations in 3-year follow-up. Baseline MRI determinants of cognitive decline were analyzed with linear mixed models controlling for multiple confounders. Results: MTA and subcortical atrophy predicted significantly steeper rate of decline in global cognitive measures as well as compound scores for psychomotor speed, executive functions, and memory after adjusting for age, gender, education, lacunes/infarcts, and WML volume. Cortical atrophy independently predicted decline in psychomotor speed. WML volume remained significantly associated with cognitive decline even after controlling for the atrophy scores. Moreover, significant synergistic interactions were found between WML and atrophy measures in overall cognitive performance across time and the rate of cognitive decline. Synergistic effects were also observed between baseline lacunar infarcts and all atrophy measures on change in psychomotor speed. The main results remained robust after exclusion of subjects with clinical stroke or incident dementia, and after additional adjustments for progression of WML and lacunes. Conclusions: Brain atrophy and WML are independently related to longitudinal cognitive decline in small vessel disease. MTA, subcortical, and cortical atrophy seem to potentiate the effect of WML and lacunes on cognitive decline. Neurology (R) 2012;78:1785-1792
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| 21. |
- Jokinen, H, et al.
(författare)
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Incident lacunes influence cognitive decline: the LADIS study.
- 2011
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Ingår i: Neurology. - 0028-3878 .- 1526-632X. ; 76:22, s. 1872-8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In cerebral small vessel disease, the core MRI findings include white matter lesions (WML) and lacunar infarcts. While the clinical significance of WML is better understood, the contribution of lacunes to the rate of cognitive decline has not been established. This study investigated whether incident lacunes on MRI determine longitudinal cognitive change in elderly subjects with WML.
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| 22. |
- Liu, Cong, et al.
(författare)
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Coarse particulate air pollution and daily mortality : a global study in 205 cities
- 2022
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Ingår i: American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine. - : American Thoracic Society. - 1073-449X .- 1535-4970. ; 206:8, s. 999-1007
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- RATIONALE: The associations between ambient coarse particulate matter (PM2.5-10) and daily mortality is not fully understood at a global scale.OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the short-term associations between PM2.5-10 and total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries/regions worldwide.METHODS: We collected daily mortality (total, cardiovascular, respiratory) and air pollution data from 205 cities in 20 countries/regions. Concentrations of PM2.5-10 were computed as the difference between inhalable and fine particulate matter. A two-stage time-series analytic approach was applied, with over-dispersed generalized linear models and multilevel meta-analysis. We fitted two-pollutant models to test the independent effect of PM2.5-10 from co-pollutants (fine particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, ozone, and carbon monoxide). Exposure-response relationship curves were pooled and regional analyses were conducted.MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: A 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5-10 concentration on lag 0-1 day was associated with increments of 0.51% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.18%, 0.84%), 0.43% (95%CI: 0.15%, 0.71%) and 0.41% (95%CI: 0.06%, 0.77%) in total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. The associations varied by country and region. These associations were robust to adjustment by all co-pollutants in two-pollutant models, especially for PM2.5. The exposure-response curves for total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality were positive, with steeper slopes at lower exposure ranges and without discernible thresholds.CONCLUSIONS: This study provides novel global evidence on the robust and independent associations between short-term exposure to ambient PM2.5-10 and total, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, suggesting the need to establish a unique guideline or regulatory limit for daily concentrations of PM2.5-10.
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| 23. |
- Masselot, Pierre, et al.
(författare)
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Differential mortality risks associated with PM2.5 components : a multi-country, multi-city study
- 2022
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Ingår i: Epidemiology. - : Wolters Kluwer. - 1044-3983 .- 1531-5487. ; 33:2, s. 167-175
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The association between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and mortality widely differs between as well as within countries. Differences in PM2.5 composition can play a role in modifying the effect estimates, but there is little evidence about which components have higher impacts on mortality.METHODS: We applied a two-stage analysis on data collected from 210 locations in 16 countries. In the first stage, we estimated location-specific relative risks (RR) for mortality associated with daily total PM2.5 through time series regression analysis. We then pooled these estimates in a meta-regression model that included city-specific logratio-transformed proportions of seven PM2.5 components as well as meta-predictors derived from city-specific socio-economic and environmental indicators.RESULTS: We found associations between RR and several PM2.5 components. Increasing the ammonium (NH4+) proportion from 1% to 22%, while keeping a relative average proportion of other components, increased the RR from 1.0063 (95%CI: 1.0030-1.0097) to 1.0102 (95%CI:1.0070-1.0135). Conversely, an increase in nitrate (NO3-) from 1% to 71% resulted in a reduced RR, from 1.0100 (95%CI: 1.0067-1.0133) to 1.0037 (95%CI: 0.9998- 1.0077). Differences in composition explained a substantial part of the heterogeneity in PM2.5 risk.CONCLUSIONS: These findings contribute to the identification of more hazardous emission sources. Further work is needed to understand the health impacts of PM2.5 components and sources given the overlapping sources and correlations among many components.
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| 24. |
- Miranda, B, et al.
(författare)
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Self-perceived memory impairment and cognitive performance in an elderly independent population with age-related white matter changes.
- 2008
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Ingår i: Journal of neurology, neurosurgery, and psychiatry. - : BMJ. - 1468-330X .- 0022-3050. ; 79:8, s. 869-73
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVES: To determine whether self-perceived memory impairment is associated with the severity of white matter changes (WMC) and is related to cognitive impairment. METHODS: Data were drawn from the multinational Leukoaraiosis and Disability Study (LADIS), which investigates the impact of WMC on global functioning. WMC severity was rated using the Fazekas scale. Medial temporal lobe atrophy (MTA) was scored visually and mean values were calculated. The neuropsychological battery consisted of the Mini-Mental State Examination, a modified version of the VADAS-Cog, Trail making and Stroop tests. A question about self-perceived memory impairment was used as a measure for presence of memory complaints. Cognitive performance was analysed test-by-test and in three main domains: memory, executive functions and speed/motor control. The Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS) was used as a measure of depressive symptoms. RESULTS: Six hundred and thirty-eight subjects were included in this study. No association was found between memory complaints and the severity of WMC. Subjects with memory complaints (n = 399) had a higher GDS score [t((637)) = -7.15; p<0.02] and performed worse on almost all cognitive tests and on the three cognitive domains. Multiple linear regression showed that the worse performance on the memory domain was associated with memory complaints independently of depressive symptoms, WMC severity and MTA (R(2) = 0.183; F = 17.09, beta = -0.126; p<0.05). CONCLUSION: In a sample of non-disabled elderly subjects with WMC, self-perceived memory impairment is significantly associated with objective memory impairment independently of the WMC severity, depressive symptoms and MTA.
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| 25. |
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| 26. |
- Rai, Masna, et al.
(författare)
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Heat-related cardiorespiratory mortality : effect modification by air pollution across 482 cities from 24 countries
- 2023
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Ingår i: Environment International. - : Elsevier. - 0160-4120 .- 1873-6750. ; 174
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Evidence on the potential interactive effects of heat and ambient air pollution on cause-specific mortality is inconclusive and limited to selected locations. Objectives: We investigated the effects of heat on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality and its modification by air pollution during summer months (six consecutive hottest months) in 482 locations across 24 countries.Methods: Location-specific daily death counts and exposure data (e.g., particulate matter with diameters ≤ 2.5 µm [PM2.5]) were obtained from 2000 to 2018. We used location-specific confounder-adjusted Quasi-Poisson regression with a tensor product between air temperature and the air pollutant. We extracted heat effects at low, medium, and high levels of pollutants, defined as the 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile of the location-specific pollutant concentrations. Country-specific and overall estimates were derived using a random-effects multilevel meta-analytical model.Results: Heat was associated with increased cardiorespiratory mortality. Moreover, the heat effects were modified by elevated levels of all air pollutants in most locations, with stronger effects for respiratory than cardiovascular mortality. For example, the percent increase in respiratory mortality per increase in the 2-day average summer temperature from the 75th to the 99th percentile was 7.7% (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 7.6–7.7), 11.3% (95%CI 11.2–11.3), and 14.3% (95% CI 14.1–14.5) at low, medium, and high levels of PM2.5, respectively. Similarly, cardiovascular mortality increased by 1.6 (95%CI 1.5–1.6), 5.1 (95%CI 5.1–5.2), and 8.7 (95%CI 8.7–8.8) at low, medium, and high levels of O3, respectively.Discussion: We observed considerable modification of the heat effects on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality by elevated levels of air pollutants. Therefore, mitigation measures following the new WHO Air Quality Guidelines are crucial to enhance better health and promote sustainable development.
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| 27. |
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| 28. |
- Schmidt, R., et al.
(författare)
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White Matter Lesion Progression in LADIS Frequency, Clinical Effects, and Sample Size Calculations
- 2012
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Ingår i: Stroke. - : Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health). - 0039-2499 .- 1524-4628. ; 43:10, s. 2643-2647
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background and Purpose-White matter lesion (WML) progression has been advocated as a surrogate marker in intervention trials on cerebral small vessel disease. We assessed the rate of visually rated WML progression, studied correlations between lesion progression and cognition, and estimated sample sizes for clinical trials with pure WML progression vs combined WML progression-cognitive outcomes. Methods-Those 394 participants of the Leukoaraiosis and Disability Study (LADIS) study with magnetic resonance imaging scanning at baseline and 3-year follow-up were analyzed. WML progression rating relied on the modified Rotterdam Progression Scale. The Vascular Dementia Assessment Scale global score and a composite score of specific executive function tests assessed longitudinal change in cognition. Sample size calculations were based on the assumption that treatment reduces WML progression by 1 grade on the Rotterdam Progression Scale. Results-WML progression related to deterioration in cognitive functioning. This relationship was less pronounced in subjects with early confluent and confluent lesions. Consequently, studies in which the outcome is cognitive change resulting from treatment effects on lesion progression will need between 1809 subjects per treatment arm when using executive tests and up to 18 853 subjects when using the Vascular Dementia Assessment Scale score. Studies having WML progression as the sole outcome will need only 58 or 70 individuals per treatment arm. Conclusions-WML progression is an interesting outcome for proof-of-concept studies in cerebral small vessel disease. If cognitive outcome measures are added to protocols, then sample size estimates increase substantially. Our data support the use of an executive test battery rather than the Vascular Dementia Assessment Scale as the primary cognitive outcome measure. (Stroke. 2012; 43:2643-2647.)
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| 29. |
- Tobías, Aurelio, et al.
(författare)
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Geographical Variations of the Minimum Mortality Temperature at a Global Scale : A Multicountry Study
- 2021
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Ingår i: Environmental epidemiology. - : Wolters Kluwer. - 2474-7882. ; 5:5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) is an important indicator to assess the temperature-mortality association, indicating long-term adaptation to local climate. Limited evidence about the geographical variability of the MMT is available at a global scale.Methods: We collected data from 658 communities in 43 countries under different climates. We estimated temperature-mortality associations to derive the MMT for each community using Poisson regression with distributed lag nonlinear models. We investigated the variation in MMT by climatic zone using a mixed-effects meta-analysis and explored the association with climatic and socioeconomic indicators.Results: The geographical distribution of MMTs varied considerably by country between 14.2 and 31.1 °C decreasing by latitude. For climatic zones, the MMTs increased from alpine (13.0 °C) to continental (19.3 °C), temperate (21.7 °C), arid (24.5 °C), and tropical (26.5 °C). The MMT percentiles (MMTPs) corresponding to the MMTs decreased from temperate (79.5th) to continental (75.4th), arid (68.0th), tropical (58.5th), and alpine (41.4th). The MMTs indreased by 0.8 °C for a 1 °C rise in a community's annual mean temperature, and by 1 °C for a 1 °C rise in its SD. While the MMTP decreased by 0.3 centile points for a 1 °C rise in a community's annual mean temperature and by 1.3 for a 1 °C rise in its SD.Conclusions: The geographical distribution of the MMTs and MMTPs is driven mainly by the mean annual temperature, which seems to be a valuable indicator of overall adaptation across populations. Our results suggest that populations have adapted to the average temperature, although there is still more room for adaptation.
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| 30. |
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| 31. |
- Verdelho, A., et al.
(författare)
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Depressive symptoms predict cognitive decline and dementia in older people independently of cerebral white matter changes: the LADIS study
- 2013
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Ingår i: Journal of Neurology Neurosurgery and Psychiatry. - : BMJ. - 0022-3050 .- 1468-330X. ; 84:11, s. 1250-1254
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective Depressive symptoms (DS) have been associated with increased risk of cognitive decline. Our aim was to evaluate the longitudinal influence of DS on cognition in independent older people, accounting for the severity of white matter changes (WMC). Methods The LADIS (Leukoaraiosis And DISability in the elderly) prospective study evaluated the impact of WMC on the transition of independent older subjects into disability. Subjects were evaluated annually over a 3 year period with a comprehensive clinical and neuropsychological evaluation. Previous episodes of depression and current DS were assessed during each interview. Severity of DS was assessed using the self-rated 15 item Geriatric Depression Scale. A neuropsychological battery and clinical criteria for cognitive impairments were applied in all clinical visits, and cognitive compound measures were made based on neuropsychological results. MRI was performed at baseline and at year 3. Results 639 subjects were included (74.1 +/- 5 years old, 55% women, 9.6 +/- 3.8 years of schooling). Dementia was diagnosed in 90 patients and cognitive impairment not dementia in 147 patients at the last clinical evaluation. DS were an independent predictor of cognitive impairment (dementia and not dementia) during follow-up, independent of the effect of the severity of WMC, medial temporal lobe atrophy, age, education or global cognitive function at baseline. Conclusions DS are associated with an increase risk of cognitive decline, independent of the effect of WMC, probably due to an additive or synergistic effect. In this context, DS probably represent a subtle ongoing organic dysfunction
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| 32. |
- Verdelho, A., et al.
(författare)
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Physical Activity Prevents Progression for Cognitive Impairment and Vascular Dementia Results From the LADIS (Leukoaraiosis and Disability) Study
- 2012
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Ingår i: Stroke. - : Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health). - 0039-2499 .- 1524-4628. ; 43:12, s. 3331-3335
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background and Purpose-We aimed to study if physical activity could interfere with progression for cognitive impairment and dementia in older people with white matter changes living independently. Methods-The LADIS (Leukoaraiosis and Disability) prospective multinational European study evaluates the impact of white matter changes on the transition of independent elderly subjects into disability. Subjects were evaluated yearly during 3 years with a comprehensive clinical protocol and cognitive assessment with classification of cognitive impairment and dementia according to usual clinical criteria. Physical activity was recorded during the clinical interview. MRI was performed at entry and at the end of the study. Results-Six hundred thirty-nine subjects were included (74.1 +/- 5 years old, 55% women, 9.6 +/- 3.8 years of schooling, 64% physically active). At the end of follow-up, 90 patients had dementia (vascular dementia, 54; Alzheimer disease with vascular component, 34; frontotemporal dementia, 2), and 147 had cognitive impairment not dementia. Using Cox regression analysis, physical activity reduced the risk of cognitive impairment (dementia and not dementia: beta=-0.45, P=0.002; hazard ratio, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.48-0.85), dementia (beta=-0.49, P=0.043; hazard ratio, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.38-0.98), and vascular dementia (beta=-0.86, P=0.008; hazard ratio, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.22-0.80), independent of age, education, white matter change severity, medial temporal atrophy, previous and incident stroke, and diabetes. Conclusions-Physical activity reduces the risk of cognitive impairment, mainly vascular dementia, in older people living independently. (Stroke. 2012; 43: 3331-3335.)
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| 33. |
- Verdelho, A., et al.
(författare)
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White matter changes and diabetes predict cognitive decline in the elderly The LADIS Study
- 2010
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Ingår i: Neurology. - 0028-3878 .- 1526-632X. ; 75:2, s. 160-167
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: We aimed to study if age-related white matter changes (WMC) and vascular risk factors were predictors of cognitive decline in elderly subjects with WMC living independently. METHODS: The Leukoaraiosis and Disability prospective multinational European study (LADIS) evaluates the impact of WMC on the transition of independent elderly subjects into disability. Independent elderly were enrolled due to the presence of WMC. Subjects were evaluated yearly during 3 years with a comprehensive clinical protocol and a neuropsychological battery. Additionally, dementia, subtypes of dementia, and cognitive decline without dementia were classified according to usual clinical criteria. MRI was performed at entry and at the end of the study. RESULTS: A total of 639 subjects were included (74.1 +/- 5 years, 55% women, 9.6 +/- 3.8 years of schooling). At end of follow-up, 90 patients had dementia and 147 had cognitive impairment no dementia. Using Cox regression analysis, WMC severity independently predicted cognitive decline (dementia and not dementia), independently of age, education, and medial temporal atrophy (MTA). Diabetes at baseline was the only vascular risk factor that independently predicted cognitive decline during follow-up, controlling for age, education, WMC severity, and temporal atrophy. Considering subtypes of dementia, Alzheimer disease (AD) was predicted only by MTA, while vascular dementia was predicted by previous stroke, WMC severity, and MTA. CONCLUSION: WMC severity and diabetes are independent predictors of cognitive decline in an initially nondisabled elderly population. Vascular dementia is predicted by previous stroke and WMC, while AD is predicted only by MTA.
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| 34. |
- Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M, et al.
(författare)
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Short term association between ozone and mortality : global two stage time series study in 406 locations in 20 countries
- 2020
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Ingår i: The BMJ. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 1756-1833. ; 368
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: To assess short term mortality risks and excess mortality associated with exposure to ozone in several cities worldwide.DESIGN: Two stage time series analysis.SETTING: 406 cities in 20 countries, with overlapping periods between 1985 and 2015, collected from the database of Multi-City Multi-Country Collaborative Research Network.POPULATION: Deaths for all causes or for external causes only registered in each city within the study period.MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Daily total mortality (all or non-external causes only).RESULTS: A total of 45 165 171 deaths were analysed in the 406 cities. On average, a 10 µg/m3 increase in ozone during the current and previous day was associated with an overall relative risk of mortality of 1.0018 (95% confidence interval 1.0012 to 1.0024). Some heterogeneity was found across countries, with estimates ranging from greater than 1.0020 in the United Kingdom, South Africa, Estonia, and Canada to less than 1.0008 in Mexico and Spain. Short term excess mortality in association with exposure to ozone higher than maximum background levels (70 µg/m3) was 0.26% (95% confidence interval 0.24% to 0.28%), corresponding to 8203 annual excess deaths (95% confidence interval 3525 to 12 840) across the 406 cities studied. The excess remained at 0.20% (0.18% to 0.22%) when restricting to days above the WHO guideline (100 µg/m3), corresponding to 6262 annual excess deaths (1413 to 11 065). Above more lenient thresholds for air quality standards in Europe, America, and China, excess mortality was 0.14%, 0.09%, and 0.05%, respectively.CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that ozone related mortality could be potentially reduced under stricter air quality standards. These findings have relevance for the implementation of efficient clean air interventions and mitigation strategies designed within national and international climate policies.
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| 35. |
- Wen, Bo, et al.
(författare)
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Comparison for the effects of different components of temperature variability on mortality : A multi-country time-series study
- 2024
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Ingår i: Environment International. - : Elsevier. - 0160-4120 .- 1873-6750. ; 187
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Temperature variability (TV) is associated with increased mortality risk. However, it is still unknown whether intra-day or inter-day TV has different effects. Objectives: We aimed to assess the association of intra-day TV and inter-day TV with all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality.Methods: We collected data on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and meteorology from 758 locations in 47 countries or regions from 1972 to 2020. We defined inter-day TV as the standard deviation (SD) of daily mean temperatures across the lag interval, and intra-day TV as the average SD of minimum and maximum temperatures on each day. In the first stage, inter-day and intra-day TVs were modelled simultaneously in the quasi-Poisson time-series model for each location. In the second stage, a multi-level analysis was used to pool the location-specific estimates.Results: Overall, the mortality risk due to each interquartile range [IQR] increase was higher for intra-day TV than for inter-day TV. The risk increased by 0.59% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.53, 0.65) for all-cause mortality, 0.64% (95% CI: 0.56, 0.73) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.65% (95% CI: 0.49, 0.80) for respiratory mortality per IQR increase in intra-day TV0–7 (0.9 °C). An IQR increase in inter-day TV0–7 (1.6 °C) was associated with 0.22% (95% CI: 0.18, 0.26) increase in all-cause mortality, 0.44% (95% CI: 0.37, 0.50) increase in cardiovascular mortality, and 0.31% (95% CI: 0.21, 0.41) increase in respiratory mortality. The proportion of all-cause deaths attributable to intra-day TV0–7 and inter-day TV0–7 was 1.45% and 0.35%, respectively. The mortality risks varied by lag interval, climate area, season, and climate type.Conclusions: Our results indicated that intra-day TV may explain the main part of the mortality risk related to TV and suggested that comprehensive evaluations should be proposed in more countries to help protect human health.
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| 36. |
- Wu, Yao, et al.
(författare)
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Fluctuating temperature modifies heat-mortality association around the globe
- 2022
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Ingår i: The Innovation. - : Cell Press. - 2666-6758. ; 3:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Studies have investigated the effects of heat and temperature variability (TV) on mortality. However, few assessed whether TV modifies the heat-mortality association. Data on daily temperature and mortality in the warm season were collected from 717 locations across 36 countries. TV was calculated as the standard deviation of the average of the same and previous days’ minimum and maximum temperatures. We used location-specific quasi-Poisson regression models with an interaction term between the cross-basis term for mean temperature and quartiles of TV to obtain heat-mortality associations under each quartile of TV, and then pooled estimates at the country, regional, and global levels. Results show the increased risk in heat-related mortality with increments in TV, accounting for 0.70% (95% confidence interval [CI]: −0.33 to 1.69), 1.34% (95% CI: −0.14 to 2.73), 1.99% (95% CI: 0.29–3.57), and 2.73% (95% CI: 0.76–4.50) of total deaths for Q1–Q4 (first quartile–fourth quartile) of TV. The modification effects of TV varied geographically. Central Europe had the highest attributable fractions (AFs), corresponding to 7.68% (95% CI: 5.25–9.89) of total deaths for Q4 of TV, while the lowest AFs were observed in North America, with the values for Q4 of 1.74% (95% CI: −0.09 to 3.39). TV had a significant modification effect on the heat-mortality association, causing a higher heat-related mortality burden with increments of TV. Implementing targeted strategies against heat exposure and fluctuant temperatures simultaneously would benefit public health.
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| 37. |
- Wu, Yao, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000–19 : a three-stage modelling study
- 2022
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Ingår i: The Lancet Planetary Health. - : Elsevier. - 2542-5196. ; 6:5, s. e410-e421
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Increased mortality risk is associated with short-term temperature variability. However, to our knowledge, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the temperature variability-related mortality burden worldwide. In this study, using data from the MCC Collaborative Research Network, we first explored the association between temperature variability and mortality across 43 countries or regions. Then, to provide a more comprehensive picture of the global burden of mortality associated with temperature variability, global gridded temperature data with a resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° were used to assess the temperature variability-related mortality burden at the global, regional, and national levels. Furthermore, temporal trends in temperature variability-related mortality burden were also explored from 2000–19.Methods: In this modelling study, we applied a three-stage meta-analytical approach to assess the global temperature variability-related mortality burden at a spatial resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° from 2000–19. Temperature variability was calculated as the SD of the average of the same and previous days’ minimum and maximum temperatures. We first obtained location-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations based on a daily time series of 750 locations from the Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network. We subsequently constructed a multivariable meta-regression model with five predictors to estimate grid-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations across the globe. Finally, percentage excess in mortality and excess mortality rate were calculated to quantify the temperature variability-related mortality burden and to further explore its temporal trend over two decades.Findings: An increasing trend in temperature variability was identified at the global level from 2000 to 2019. Globally, 1 753 392 deaths (95% CI 1 159 901–2 357 718) were associated with temperature variability per year, accounting for 3·4% (2·2–4·6) of all deaths. Most of Asia, Australia, and New Zealand were observed to have a higher percentage excess in mortality than the global mean. Globally, the percentage excess in mortality increased by about 4·6% (3·7–5·3) per decade. The largest increase occurred in Australia and New Zealand (7·3%, 95% CI 4·3–10·4), followed by Europe (4·4%, 2·2–5·6) and Africa (3·3, 1·9–4·6).Interpretation: Globally, a substantial mortality burden was associated with temperature variability, showing geographical heterogeneity and a slightly increasing temporal trend. Our findings could assist in raising public awareness and improving the understanding of the health impacts of temperature variability. Funding: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council.
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| 38. |
- Zhao, Qi, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019 : a three-stage modelling study
- 2021
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Ingår i: The Lancet Planetary Health. - : Elsevier. - 2542-5196. ; 5:7, s. e415-e425
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Exposure to cold or hot temperatures is associated with premature deaths. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national mortality burden associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures.METHODS: In this modelling study, we collected time-series data on mortality and ambient temperatures from 750 locations in 43 countries and five meta-predictors at a grid size of 0·5° × 0·5° across the globe. A three-stage analysis strategy was used. First, the temperature-mortality association was fitted for each location by use of a time-series regression. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was built between location-specific estimates and meta-predictors. Finally, the grid-specific temperature-mortality association between 2000 and 2019 was predicted by use of the fitted meta-regression and the grid-specific meta-predictors. Excess deaths due to non-optimal temperatures, the ratio between annual excess deaths and all deaths of a year (the excess death ratio), and the death rate per 100 000 residents were then calculated for each grid across the world. Grids were divided according to regional groupings of the UN Statistics Division.FINDINGS: Globally, 5 083 173 deaths (95% empirical CI [eCI] 4 087 967-5 965 520) were associated with non-optimal temperatures per year, accounting for 9·43% (95% eCI 7·58-11·07) of all deaths (8·52% [6·19-10·47] were cold-related and 0·91% [0·56-1·36] were heat-related). There were 74 temperature-related excess deaths per 100 000 residents (95% eCI 60-87). The mortality burden varied geographically. Of all excess deaths, 2 617 322 (51·49%) occurred in Asia. Eastern Europe had the highest heat-related excess death rate and Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest cold-related excess death rate. From 2000-03 to 2016-19, the global cold-related excess death ratio changed by -0·51 percentage points (95% eCI -0·61 to -0·42) and the global heat-related excess death ratio increased by 0·21 percentage points (0·13-0·31), leading to a net reduction in the overall ratio. The largest decline in overall excess death ratio occurred in South-eastern Asia, whereas excess death ratio fluctuated in Southern Asia and Europe.INTERPRETATION: Non-optimal temperatures are associated with a substantial mortality burden, which varies spatiotemporally. Our findings will benefit international, national, and local communities in developing preparedness and prevention strategies to reduce weather-related impacts immediately and under climate change scenarios.
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