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- Sherratt, K., et al.
(författare)
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Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
- 2023
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
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| 2. |
- Ovadia, C., et al.
(författare)
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Ursodeoxycholic acid in intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy: a systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis
- 2021
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Ingår i: Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology. - : Elsevier BV. - 2468-1253. ; 6:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Ursodeoxycholic acid is commonly used to treat intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy, yet its largest trial detected minimal benefit for a composite outcome (stillbirth, preterm birth, and neonatal unit admission). We aimed to examine whether ursodeoxycholic acid affects specific adverse perinatal outcomes. Methods In this systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, MEDLINE, CINAHL, Global Health, MIDIRS, and Cochrane without language restrictions for relevant articles published between database inception, and Jan 1, 2020, using search terms referencing intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy, ursodeoxycholic acid, and perinatal outcomes. Eligible studies had 30 or more study participants and reported on at least one individual with intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy and bile acid concentrations of 40 mu mol/L or more. We also included two unpublished cohort studies. Individual participant data were collected from the authors of selected studies. The primary outcome was the prevalence of stillbirth, for which we anticipated there would be insufficient data to achieve statistical power. Therefore, we included a composite of stillbirth and preterm birth as a main secondary outcome. A mixed-effects meta-analysis was done using multi-level modelling and adjusting for bile acid concentration, parity, and multifetal pregnancy. Individual participant data analyses were done for all studies and in different subgroups, which were produced by limiting analyses to randomised controlled trials only, singleton pregnancies only, or two-arm studies only. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42019131495. Findings The authors of the 85 studies fulfilling our inclusion criteria were contacted. Individual participant data from 6974 women in 34 studies were included in the meta-analysis, of whom 4726 (67.8%) took ursodeoxycholic acid. Stillbirth occurred in 35 (0.7%) of 5097 fetuses among women with intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy treated with ursodeoxycholic acid and in 12 (0.6%) of 2038 fetuses among women with intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy not treated with ursodeoxycholic acid (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.04, 95% CI 0.35-3.07; p=0.95). Ursodeoxycholic acid treatment also had no effect on the prevalence of stillbirth when considering only randomised controlled trials (aOR 0.29, 95% CI 0.04-2.42; p=0.25). Ursodeoxycholic acid treatment had no effect on the prevalence of the composite outcome in all studies (aOR 1.28, 95% CI 0.86-1.91; p=0.22), but was associated with a reduced composite outcome when considering only randomised controlled trials (0.60, 0.39-0.91; p=0.016). Interpretation Ursodeoxycholic acid treatment had no significant effect on the prevalence of stillbirth in women with intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy, but our analysis was probably limited by the low overall event rate. However, when considering only randomised controlled trials, ursodeoxycholic acid was associated with a reduction in stillbirth in combination with preterm birth, providing evidence for the clinical benefit of antenatal ursodeoxycholic acid treatment. Copyright (C) 2021 The Authors(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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