1. |
- Kanai, M, et al.
(författare)
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- 2023
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swepub:Mat__t
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2. |
- Niemi, MEK, et al.
(författare)
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- 2021
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swepub:Mat__t
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3. |
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4. |
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- 2019
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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5. |
- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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6. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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7. |
- Vos, Theo, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
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8. |
- Kattge, Jens, et al.
(författare)
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TRY plant trait database - enhanced coverage and open access
- 2020
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 26:1, s. 119-188
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Plant traits-the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants-determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait-based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits-almost complete coverage for 'plant growth form'. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait-environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives.
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9. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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10. |
- Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
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11. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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12. |
- Kyu, Hmwe H, et al.
(författare)
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Global and National Burden of Diseases and Injuries Among Children and Adolescents Between 1990 and 2013 : Findings From the Global Burden of Disease 2013 Study.
- 2016
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Ingår i: JAMA pediatrics. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 2168-6203 .- 2168-6211. ; 170:3, s. 267-287
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- IMPORTANCE: The literature focuses on mortality among children younger than 5 years. Comparable information on nonfatal health outcomes among these children and the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among older children and adolescents is scarce.OBJECTIVE: To determine levels and trends in the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among younger children (aged <5 years), older children (aged 5-9 years), and adolescents (aged 10-19 years) between 1990 and 2013 in 188 countries from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 study.EVIDENCE REVIEW: Data from vital registration, verbal autopsy studies, maternal and child death surveillance, and other sources covering 14 244 site-years (ie, years of cause of death data by geography) from 1980 through 2013 were used to estimate cause-specific mortality. Data from 35 620 epidemiological sources were used to estimate the prevalence of the diseases and sequelae in the GBD 2013 study. Cause-specific mortality for most causes was estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble Model strategy. For some infectious diseases (eg, HIV infection/AIDS, measles, hepatitis B) where the disease process is complex or the cause of death data were insufficient or unavailable, we used natural history models. For most nonfatal health outcomes, DisMod-MR 2.0, a Bayesian metaregression tool, was used to meta-analyze the epidemiological data to generate prevalence estimates.FINDINGS: Of the 7.7 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7.4-8.1) million deaths among children and adolescents globally in 2013, 6.28 million occurred among younger children, 0.48 million among older children, and 0.97 million among adolescents. In 2013, the leading causes of death were lower respiratory tract infections among younger children (905 059 deaths; 95% UI, 810 304-998 125), diarrheal diseases among older children (38 325 deaths; 95% UI, 30 365-47 678), and road injuries among adolescents (115 186 deaths; 95% UI, 105 185-124 870). Iron deficiency anemia was the leading cause of years lived with disability among children and adolescents, affecting 619 (95% UI, 618-621) million in 2013. Large between-country variations exist in mortality from leading causes among children and adolescents. Countries with rapid declines in all-cause mortality between 1990 and 2013 also experienced large declines in most leading causes of death, whereas countries with the slowest declines had stagnant or increasing trends in the leading causes of death. In 2013, Nigeria had a 12% global share of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections and a 38% global share of deaths from malaria. India had 33% of the world's deaths from neonatal encephalopathy. Half of the world's diarrheal deaths among children and adolescents occurred in just 5 countries: India, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Ethiopia.CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Understanding the levels and trends of the leading causes of death and disability among children and adolescents is critical to guide investment and inform policies. Monitoring these trends over time is also key to understanding where interventions are having an impact. Proven interventions exist to prevent or treat the leading causes of unnecessary death and disability among children and adolescents. The findings presented here show that these are underused and give guidance to policy makers in countries where more attention is needed.
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13. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
- 2016
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Ingår i: The lancet. HIV. - : Elsevier. - 2352-3018. ; 3:8, s. e361-e387
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.METHODS: For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.FINDINGS: Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.INTERPRETATION: Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.
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14. |
- Beecham, Ashley H, et al.
(författare)
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Analysis of immune-related loci identifies 48 new susceptibility variants for multiple sclerosis.
- 2013
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Ingår i: Nature genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1546-1718 .- 1061-4036. ; 45:11, s. 1353-60
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Using the ImmunoChip custom genotyping array, we analyzed 14,498 subjects with multiple sclerosis and 24,091 healthy controls for 161,311 autosomal variants and identified 135 potentially associated regions (P < 1.0 × 10(-4)). In a replication phase, we combined these data with previous genome-wide association study (GWAS) data from an independent 14,802 subjects with multiple sclerosis and 26,703 healthy controls. In these 80,094 individuals of European ancestry, we identified 48 new susceptibility variants (P < 5.0 × 10(-8)), 3 of which we found after conditioning on previously identified variants. Thus, there are now 110 established multiple sclerosis risk variants at 103 discrete loci outside of the major histocompatibility complex. With high-resolution Bayesian fine mapping, we identified five regions where one variant accounted for more than 50% of the posterior probability of association. This study enhances the catalog of multiple sclerosis risk variants and illustrates the value of fine mapping in the resolution of GWAS signals.
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15. |
- Schweinsberg, Martin, et al.
(författare)
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Same data, different conclusions : Radical dispersion in empirical results when independent analysts operationalize and test the same hypothesis
- 2021
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Ingår i: Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. - : Elsevier BV. - 0749-5978 .- 1095-9920. ; 165, s. 228-249
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this crowdsourced initiative, independent analysts used the same dataset to test two hypotheses regarding the effects of scientists' gender and professional status on verbosity during group meetings. Not only the analytic approach but also the operationalizations of key variables were left unconstrained and up to individual analysts. For instance, analysts could choose to operationalize status as job title, institutional ranking, citation counts, or some combination. To maximize transparency regarding the process by which analytic choices are made, the analysts used a platform we developed called DataExplained to justify both preferred and rejected analytic paths in real time. Analyses lacking sufficient detail, reproducible code, or with statistical errors were excluded, resulting in 29 analyses in the final sample. Researchers reported radically different analyses and dispersed empirical outcomes, in a number of cases obtaining significant effects in opposite directions for the same research question. A Boba multiverse analysis demonstrates that decisions about how to operationalize variables explain variability in outcomes above and beyond statistical choices (e.g., covariates). Subjective researcher decisions play a critical role in driving the reported empirical results, underscoring the need for open data, systematic robustness checks, and transparency regarding both analytic paths taken and not taken. Implications for orga-nizations and leaders, whose decision making relies in part on scientific findings, consulting reports, and internal analyses by data scientists, are discussed.
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16. |
- Turtelboom,, et al.
(författare)
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The TESS-Keck Survey. XI. Mass Measurements for Four Transiting Sub-Neptunes Orbiting K Dwarf TOI-1246
- 2022
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Ingår i: Astronomical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 1538-3881 .- 0004-6256. ; 163:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Multiplanet systems are valuable arenas for investigating exoplanet architectures and comparing planetary siblings. TOI-1246 is one such system, with a moderately bright K dwarf (V = 11.6, K = 9.9) and four transiting sub-Neptunes identified by TESS with orbital periods of 4.31, 5.90, 18.66, and 37.92 days. We collected 130 radial velocity observations with Keck/HIRES and TNG/HARPS-N to measure planet masses. We refit the 14 sectors of TESS photometry to refine planet radii (2.97 +/- 0.06 R (circle plus), 2.47 +/- 0.08 R (circle plus), 3.46 +/- 0.09 R (circle plus), and 3.72 +/- 0.16 R (circle plus)) and confirm the four planets. We find that TOI-1246 e is substantially more massive than the three inner planets (8.1 +/- 1.1 M (circle plus), 8.8 +/- 1.2 M (circle plus), 5.3 +/- 1.7 M (circle plus), and 14.8 +/- 2.3 M (circle plus)). The two outer planets, TOI-1246 d and TOI-1246 e, lie near to the 2:1 resonance (P (e)/P ( d ) = 2.03) and exhibit transit-timing variations. TOI-1246 is one of the brightest four-planet systems, making it amenable for continued observations. It is one of only five systems with measured masses and radii for all four transiting planets. The planet densities range from 0.70 +/- 0.24 to 3.21 +/- 0.44 g cm(-3), implying a range of bulk and atmospheric compositions. We also report a fifth planet candidate found in the RV data with a minimum mass of 25.6 +/- 3.6 M (circle plus). This planet candidate is exterior to TOI-1246 e, with a candidate period of 93.8 days, and we discuss the implications if it is confirmed to be planetary in nature.
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17. |
- Allen, R. C., et al.
(författare)
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Energetic ions in the Venusian system : Insights from the first Solar Orbiter flyby
- 2021
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 656
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Solar Orbiter flyby of Venus on 27 December 2020 allowed for an opportunity to measure the suprathermal to energetic ions in the Venusian system over a large range of radial distances to better understand the acceleration processes within the system and provide a characterization of galactic cosmic rays near the planet. Bursty suprathermal ion enhancements (up to similar to 10 keV) were observed as far as similar to 50R(V) downtail. These enhancements are likely related to a combination of acceleration mechanisms in regions of strong turbulence, current sheet crossings, and boundary layer crossings, with a possible instance of ion heating due to ion cyclotron waves within the Venusian tail. Upstream of the planet, suprathermal ions are observed that might be related to pick-up acceleration of photoionized exospheric populations as far as 5R(V) upstream in the solar wind as has been observed before by missions such as Pioneer Venus Orbiter and Venus Express. Near the closest approach of Solar Orbiter, the Galactic cosmic ray (GCR) count rate was observed to decrease by approximately 5 percent, which is consistent with the amount of sky obscured by the planet, suggesting a negligible abundance of GCR albedo particles at over 2 R-V. Along with modulation of the GCR population very close to Venus, the Solar Orbiter observations show that the Venusian system, even far from the planet, can be an effective accelerator of ions up to similar to 30 keV. This paper is part of a series of the first papers from the Solar Orbiter Venus flyby.
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18. |
- Beard, Corey, et al.
(författare)
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The TESS-Keck Survey. XVII. Precise Mass Measurements in a Young, High-multiplicity Transiting Planet System Using Radial Velocities and Transit Timing Variations
- 2024
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Ingår i: Astronomical Journal. - 1538-3881 .- 0004-6256. ; 167:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present a radial velocity (RV) analysis of TOI-1136, a bright Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) system with six confirmed transiting planets, and a seventh single-transiting planet candidate. All planets in the system are amenable to transmission spectroscopy, making TOI-1136 one of the best targets for intra-system comparison of exoplanet atmospheres. TOI-1136 is young (similar to 700 Myr), and the system exhibits transit timing variations (TTVs). The youth of the system contributes to high stellar variability on the order of 50 m s-1, much larger than the likely RV amplitude of any of the transiting exoplanets. Utilizing 359 High Resolution Echelle Spectrometer and Automated Planet Finder RVs collected as part of the TESS-Keck Survey, and 51 High-Accuracy Radial velocity Planetary Searcher North RVs, we experiment with a joint TTV-RV fit. With seven possible transiting planets, TTVs, more than 400 RVs, and a stellar activity model, we posit that we may be presenting the most complex mass recovery of an exoplanet system in the literature to date. By combining TTVs and RVs, we minimized Gaussian process overfitting and retrieved new masses for this system: (m b-g = 3.50-0.7+0.8 , 6.32-1.3+1.1 , 8.35-1.6+1.8 , 6.07-1.01+1.09 , 9.7-3.7+3.9 , 5.6-3.2+4.1 M circle plus). We are unable to significantly detect the mass of the seventh planet candidate in the RVs, but we are able to loosely constrain a possible orbital period near 80 days. Future TESS observations might confirm the existence of a seventh planet in the system, better constrain the masses and orbital properties of the known exoplanets, and generally shine light on this scientifically interesting system.
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19. |
- Liu, Jimmy Z, et al.
(författare)
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Dense genotyping of immune-related disease regions identifies nine new risk loci for primary sclerosing cholangitis.
- 2013
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Ingår i: Nature genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1546-1718 .- 1061-4036. ; 45:6, s. 670-5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a severe liver disease of unknown etiology leading to fibrotic destruction of the bile ducts and ultimately to the need for liver transplantation. We compared 3,789 PSC cases of European ancestry to 25,079 population controls across 130,422 SNPs genotyped using the Immunochip. We identified 12 genome-wide significant associations outside the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) complex, 9 of which were new, increasing the number of known PSC risk loci to 16. Despite comorbidity with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) in 72% of the cases, 6 of the 12 loci showed significantly stronger association with PSC than with IBD, suggesting overlapping yet distinct genetic architectures for these two diseases. We incorporated association statistics from 7 diseases clinically occurring with PSC in the analysis and found suggestive evidence for 33 additional pleiotropic PSC risk loci. Together with network analyses, these findings add to the genetic risk map of PSC and expand on the relationship between PSC and other immune-mediated diseases.
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20. |
- Alimena, Juliette, et al.
(författare)
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Searching for long-lived particles beyond the Standard Model at the Large Hadron Collider
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of Physics G. - : IOP Publishing. - 0954-3899 .- 1361-6471. ; 47:9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Particles beyond the Standard Model (SM) can generically have lifetimes that are long compared to SM particles at the weak scale. When produced at experiments such as the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN, these long-lived particles (LLPs) can decay far from the interaction vertex of the primary proton-proton collision. Such LLP signatures are distinct from those of promptly decaying particles that are targeted by the majority of searches for new physics at the LHC, often requiring customized techniques to identify, for example, significantly displaced decay vertices, tracks with atypical properties, and short track segments. Given their non-standard nature, a comprehensive overview of LLP signatures at the LHC is beneficial to ensure that possible avenues of the discovery of new physics are not overlooked. Here we report on the joint work of a community of theorists and experimentalists with the ATLAS, CMS, and LHCb experiments-as well as those working on dedicated experiments such as MoEDAL, milliQan, MATHUSLA, CODEX-b, and FASER-to survey the current state of LLP searches at the LHC, and to chart a path for the development of LLP searches into the future, both in the upcoming Run 3 and at the high-luminosity LHC. The work is organized around the current and future potential capabilities of LHC experiments to generally discover new LLPs, and takes a signature-based approach to surveying classes of models that give rise to LLPs rather than emphasizing any particular theory motivation. We develop a set of simplified models; assess the coverage of current searches; document known, often unexpected backgrounds; explore the capabilities of proposed detector upgrades; provide recommendations for the presentation of search results; and look towards the newest frontiers, namely high-multiplicity 'dark showers', highlighting opportunities for expanding the LHC reach for these signals.
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21. |
- Drake, Thomas M., et al.
(författare)
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Outcomes following small bowel obstruction due to malignancy in the national audit of small bowel obstruction
- 2019
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Ingår i: European Journal of Surgical Oncology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0748-7983 .- 1532-2157. ; 45:12, s. 2319-2324
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- © 2019 Elsevier Ltd, BASO ~ The Association for Cancer Surgery, and the European Society of Surgical Oncology Introduction: Patients with cancer who develop small bowel obstruction are at high risk of malnutrition and morbidity following compromise of gastrointestinal tract continuity. This study aimed to characterise current management and outcomes following malignant small bowel obstruction. Methods: A prospective, multicentre cohort study of patients with small bowel obstruction who presented to UK hospitals between 16th January and 13th March 2017. Patients who presented with small bowel obstruction due to primary tumours of the intestine (excluding left-sided colonic tumours) or disseminated intra-abdominal malignancy were included. Outcomes included 30-day mortality and in-hospital complications. Cox-proportional hazards models were used to generate adjusted effects estimates, which are presented as hazard ratios (HR) alongside the corresponding 95% confidence interval (95% CI). The threshold for statistical significance was set at the level of P ≤ 0.05 a-priori. Results: 205 patients with malignant small bowel obstruction presented to emergency surgery services during the study period. Of these patients, 50 had obstruction due to right sided colon cancer, 143 due to disseminated intraabdominal malignancy, 10 had primary tumours of the small bowel and 2 patients had gastrointestinal stromal tumours. In total 100 out of 205 patients underwent a surgical intervention for obstruction. 30-day in-hospital mortality rate was 11.3% for those with primary tumours and 19.6% for those with disseminated malignancy. Severe risk of malnutrition was an independent predictor for poor mortality in this cohort (adjusted HR 16.18, 95% CI 1.86 to 140.84, p = 0.012). Patients with right-sided colon cancer had high rates of morbidity. Conclusions: Mortality rates were high in patients with disseminated malignancy and in those with right sided colon cancer. Further research should identify optimal management strategy to reduce morbidity for these patient groups.
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22. |
- Fernandes, Laura, et al.
(författare)
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A comparative analysis of the chemical compositions of Gaia-Enceladus/Sausage and Milky Way satellites using APOGEE
- 2023
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Ingår i: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press. - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 519:3, s. 3611-3622
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We use data from the 17th data release of the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE 2) to contrast the chemical composition of the recently discovered Gaia Enceladus/Sausage system (GE/S) to those of 10 Milky Way (MW) dwarf satellite galaxies: LMC, SMC, Boötes I, Carina, Draco, Fornax, Sagittarius, Sculptor, Sextans, and Ursa Minor. Our main focus is on the distributions of the stellar populations of those systems in the [Mg/Fe]–[Fe/H] and [Mg/Mn]–[Al/Fe] planes, which are commonly employed in the literature for chemical diagnosis and where dwarf galaxies can be distinguished from in situ populations. We show that, unlike MW satellites, a GE/S sample defined purely on the basis of orbital parameters falls almost entirely within the locus of ‘accreted’ stellar populations in chemical space, which is likely caused by an early quenching of star formation in GE/S. Due to a more protracted history of star formation, stars in the metal-rich end of the MW satellite populations are characterized by lower [Mg/Mn] than those of their GE/S counterparts. The chemical compositions of GE/S stars are consistent with a higher early star formation rate (SFR) than MW satellites of comparable and even higher mass, suggesting that star formation in the early universe was strongly influenced by other parameters in addition to mass. We find that the direction of the metallicity gradient in the [Mg/Mn]–[Al/Fe] plane of dwarf galaxies is an indicator of the early SFR of the system.
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23. |
- Lynch, Kate D, et al.
(författare)
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Effects of Vedolizumab in Patients with Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis and Inflammatory Bowel Diseases.
- 2020
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Ingår i: Clinical gastroenterology and hepatology : the official clinical practice journal of the American Gastroenterological Association. - : Elsevier BV. - 1542-7714. ; 18:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Gut-homing lymphocytes that express the integrin α4β7 and CCR9 might contribute to development of primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). Vedolizumab, which blocks the integrin α4β7, is used to treat patients with inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD), but there are few data on its efficacy in patients with PSC. We investigated the effects of vedolizumab in a large international cohort of patients with PSC and IBD.We collected data from European and North American centers participating in the International PSC Study Group from patients with PSC and IBD who received at least 3 doses of vedolizumab (n= 102; median vedolizumab treatment duration, 412 days). Demographic and clinical data were collected from baseline and during the follow-up period (until liver transplantation, death, or 56 days after the final vedolizumab infusion). We analyzed overall changes in biochemical features of liver and proportions of patients with reductions in serum levels of alkaline phosphatase (ALP) of 20% or more, from baseline through last follow-up evaluation. Other endpoints included response of IBD to treatment (improved, unchanged, or worsened, judged by the treating clinician, as well as endoscopic score) and liver-related outcomes.In the entire cohort, the median serum level of ALP increased from 1.54-fold the upper limit of normal at baseline to 1.64-fold the upper limit of normal at the last follow-up examination (P= .018); serum levels of transaminases and bilirubin also increased by a small amount between baseline and the last follow-up examination. Serum levels of ALP decreased by 20% or more in 21 patients (20.6%); only the presence of cirrhosis (odds ratio, 4.48; P= .019) was independently associated with this outcome. Of patients with available endoscopic data, 56.8% had a response of IBD to treatment. Liver-related events occurred in 21 patients (20.6%), including bacterial cholangitis, cirrhosis decompensation, or transplantation.In an analysis of patients with PSC and IBD in an international study group, we found no evidence for a biochemical response to vedolizumab, although serum level of ALP decreased by 20% or more in a subset of patients. Vedolizumab appears to be well tolerated and the overall response of IBD was the same as expected for patients without PSC.
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24. |
- Albert, Damien, et al.
(författare)
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A Decade with VAMDC : Results and Ambitions
- 2020
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Ingår i: Atoms. - : MDPI. - 2218-2004. ; 8:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents an overview of the current status of the Virtual Atomic and Molecular Data Centre (VAMDC) e-infrastructure, including the current status of the VAMDC-connected (or to be connected) databases, updates on the latest technological development within the infrastructure and a presentation of some application tools that make use of the VAMDC e-infrastructure. We analyse the past 10 years of VAMDC development and operation, and assess their impact both on the field of atomic and molecular (A&M) physics itself and on heterogeneous data management in international cooperation. The highly sophisticated VAMDC infrastructure and the related databases developed over this long term make them a perfect resource of sustainable data for future applications in many fields of research. However, we also discuss the current limitations that prevent VAMDC from becoming the main publishing platform and the main source of A&M data for user communities, and present possible solutions under investigation by the consortium. Several user application examples are presented, illustrating the benefits of VAMDC in current research applications, which often need the A&M data from more than one database. Finally, we present our vision for the future of VAMDC.
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25. |
- Barnes, Michele L., et al.
(författare)
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'Bunkering down' : How one community is tightening social-ecological network structures in the face of global change
- 2022
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Ingår i: People and Nature. - : Wiley. - 2575-8314. ; 4:4, s. 1032-1048
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Complex networks of relationships among and between people and nature (social-ecological networks) play an important role in sustainability; yet, we have limited empirical understanding of their temporal dynamics.We empirically examine the evolution of a social-ecological network in a common-pool resource system faced with escalating social and environmental change over the past two decades.We first draw on quantitative and qualitative data collected between 2002 and 2018 in a Papua New Guinean reef fishing community to provide contextual evidence regarding the extent of social and environmental change being experienced. We then develop a temporal multilevel exponential random graph model using complete social-ecological network data, collected in 2016 and 2018, to test key hypotheses regarding how fishing households have adapted their social ties in this context of change given their relationships with reef resources (i.e. social-ecological ties). Specifically, we hypothesized that households will increasingly form tight-knit, bonding social and social-ecological network structures (H1 and H3, respectively) with similar others (H2), and that they will seek out resourceful actors with specialized knowledge that can promote learning and spur innovation (H4).Our results depict a community that is largely ‘bunkering down’ and looking inward in response to mounting risk to resource-dependent livelihoods and a breakdown in the collaborative processes that traditionally sustained them. Community members are increasingly choosing to interact with others more like themselves (H2), with friends of friends (H1), and with those connected to interdependent ecological resources (H3)—in other words, they are showing a strong, increasing preference for forming bonding social-ecological network structures and interacting with like-minded, similar others. We did not find strong support for H4.Bonding network structures may decrease the risk associated with unmonitored behaviour and help to build trust, thereby increasing the probability of sustaining cooperation over time. Yet, increasing homophily and bonding ties can stifle innovation, reducing the ability to adapt to changing conditions. It can also lead to clustering, creating fault lines in the network, which can negatively impact the community's ability to mobilize and agree on/enforce social norms, which are key for managing common resources.
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26. |
- Forbes, Ruaridh, et al.
(författare)
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Time-resolved site-selective imaging of predissociation and charge transfer dynamics : The CH3I B-band
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of Physics B: Atomic, Molecular and Optical Physics. - : IOP Publishing. - 0953-4075 .- 1361-6455. ; 53:22
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The predissociation dynamics of the 6s (B2E) Rydberg state of gas-phase CH3I were investigated by time-resolved Coulomb-explosion imaging using extreme ultraviolet (XUV) free-electron laser pulses. Inner-shell ionization at the iodine 4d edge was utilized to provide a site-specific probe of the ensuing dynamics. The combination of a velocity-map imaging (VMI) spectrometer coupled with the pixel imaging mass spectrometry (PImMS) camera permitted three-dimensional ionic fragment momenta to be recorded simultaneously for a wide range of iodine charge states. In accord with previous studies, initial excitation at 201.2 nm results in internal conversion and subsequent dissociation on the lower-lying A-state surface on a picosecond time scale. Examination of the time-dependent yield of low kinetic energy iodine fragments yields mechanistic insights into the predissociation and subsequent charge transfer following multiple ionization of the iodine products. The effect of charge transfer was observed through differing delay-dependencies of the various iodine charge states, from which critical internuclear distances for charge transfer could be inferred and compared to a classical over-the-barrier model. Time-dependent photofragment angular anisotropy parameters were extracted from the central slice of the Newton sphere, without Abel inversion, and highlight the effect of rotation of the parent molecule before dissociation, as observed in previous
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27. |
- Hedin, Charlotte Rose Hawkey, et al.
(författare)
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Effects of Tumor Necrosis Factor Antagonists in Patients With Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis
- 2020
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Ingår i: Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology. - : Elsevier BV. - 1542-3565 .- 1542-7714. ; 18:10, s. 2-2304
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background & Aims: Few patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) and inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs) are exposed to tumor necrosis factor (TNF) antagonists because of the often mild symptoms of IBD. We assessed the effects of anti-TNF agents on liver function in patients with PSC and IBD, and their efficacy in treatment of IBD. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of 141 patients with PSC and IBD receiving treatment with anti-TNF agents (infliximab or adalimumab) at 20 sites (mostly tertiary-care centers) in Europe and North America. We collected data on the serum level of alkaline phosphatase (ALP). IBD response was defined as either endoscopic response or, if no endoscopic data were available, clinical response, as determined by the treating clinician or measurements of fecal calprotectin. Remission was defined more stringently as endoscopic mucosal healing. We used linear regression analysis to identify factors associated significantly with level of ALP during anti-TNF therapy. Results: Anti-TNF treatment produced a response of IBD in 48% of patients and remission of IBD in 23%. There was no difference in PSC symptom frequency before or after drug exposure. The most common reasons for anti-TNF discontinuation were primary nonresponse of IBD (17%) and side effects (18%). At 3 months, infliximab-treated patients had a median reduction in serum level of ALP of 4% (interquartile range, reduction of 25% to increase of 19%) compared with a median 15% reduction in ALP in adalimumab-treated patients (interquartile range, reduction of 29% to reduction of 4%; P =.035). Factors associated with lower ALP were normal ALP at baseline (P <.01), treatment with adalimumab (P =.090), and treatment in Europe (P =.083). Conclusions: In a retrospective analysis of 141 patients with PSC and IBD, anti-TNF agents were moderately effective and were not associated with exacerbation of PSC symptoms or specific side effects. Prospective studies are needed to investigate the association between use of adalimumab and reduced serum levels of ALP further.
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28. |
- Hon, Marc, et al.
(författare)
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A close-in giant planet escapes engulfment by its star
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Nature. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 618:7967, s. 917-920
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- When main-sequence stars expand into red giants, they are expected to engulf close-in planets(1-5). Until now, the absence of planets with short orbital periods around post-expansion, core-helium-burning red giants(6-8) has been interpreted as evidence that short-period planets around Sun-like stars do not survive the giant expansion phase of their host stars(9). Here we present the discovery that the giant planet 8 Ursae Minoris b(10) orbits a core-helium-burning red giant. At a distance of only 0.5 au from its host star, the planet would have been engulfed by its host star, which is predicted by standard single-star evolution to have previously expanded to a radius of 0.7 au. Given the brief lifetime of helium-burning giants, the nearly circular orbit of the planet is challenging to reconcile with scenarios in which the planet survives by having a distant orbit initially. Instead, the planet may have avoided engulfment through a stellar merger that either altered the evolution of the host star or produced 8 Ursae Minoris b as a second-generation planet(11). This system shows that core-helium-burning red giants can harbour close planets and provides evidence for the role of non-canonical stellar evolution in the extended survival of late-stage exoplanetary systems.
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29. |
- Johnson, Matthew F., et al.
(författare)
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Accounting for the power of nature: Using flume and field studies to compare the capacities of bio-energy and fluvial energy to move surficial gravels
- 2024
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Ingår i: Earth Surface Processes and Landforms. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0197-9337 .- 1096-9837. ; 49:9, s. 2612-2627
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- River channels, riparian and floodplain forms and dynamics are all influenced strongly by biological processes. However, the influence of macroinvertebrates on entrainment and transport of river sediments remains poorly understood. We use an energy-based approach to explore the capacity of benthic animals to move surficial, gravel-bed particles in field and laboratory settings and use the results to assess the relative significance of biological and physical benthic processes. Our results showed that in 11 British gravel-bed rivers, the maximum energy content (i.e., calorific content) of macroinvertebrate communities generally matched the flow energy associated with median discharges and, at multiple sites, exceeded that of the 10-year return interval flood. A series of laboratory experiments used to estimate the minimum energy expended by signal crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus) when performing geomorphic work established that crayfish move gravel particles at energy levels below that expected of the flow, complicating direct comparisons of the capacity for macroinvertebrates and fluvial flows to influence bed mobility. Our findings suggest that the influence of macroinvertebrate communities in either promoting or suppressing, the mobilisation of the bed may be large compared to equivalent values of fluvial energy. Based on these findings, we conclude that in the gravel-bed rivers studied, the macroinvertebrate community's potential to perform geomorphic work matches or exceeds the stream power during most of the year. Although our study examined biological and fluvial energy systems separately, it is important to recognise that in nature, these systems are highly interactive. It follows that utilising the energy framework presented in this paper could lead to rapid advances in both fluvial biogeomorphology and river management and restoration.
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30. |
- Malkoch, Michael, et al.
(författare)
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Synthesis of well-defined hydrogel networks using Click chemistry
- 2006
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Ingår i: Chemical Communications. - 1359-7345 .- 1364-548X. ; :26, s. 2774-2776
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- New PEG-based hydrogel materials have been synthesized by Click chemistry and shown to result in well-defined networks having significantly improved mechanical properties; the selectivity of the azide/ acetylene coupling reaction also allows for the incorporation of various additives and functional groups leading to chemical tailoring of the hydrogels.
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31. |
- Phillips, Sian G., et al.
(författare)
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APOGEE detection of N-rich stars in the tidal tails of Palomar 5
- 2022
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Ingår i: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press. - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 510:3, s. 3727-3733
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recent results from chemical tagging studies using Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment data suggest a strong link between the chemical abundance patterns of stars found within globular clusters (GC), and chemically peculiar populations in the Galactic halo field. In this paper, we analyse the chemical compositions of stars within the cluster body and tidal streams of Palomar 5, a GC that is being tidally disrupted by interaction with the Galactic gravitational potential. We report the identification of nitrogen-rich (N-rich) stars both within and beyond the tidal radius of Palomar 5, with the latter being clearly aligned with the cluster tidal streams; this acts as confirmation that N-rich stars are lost to the Galactic halo from GCs, and provides support to the hypothesis that field N-rich stars identified by various groups have a GC origin.
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32. |
- Schiavon, Ricardo P., et al.
(författare)
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The APOGEE value-added catalogue of Galactic globular cluster stars
- 2024
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Ingår i: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press. - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 528:2, s. 1393-1407
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We introduce the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS)/ Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) value-added catalogue of Galactic globular cluster (GC) stars. The catalogue is the result of a critical search of the APOGEE Data Release 17 (DR17) catalogue for candidate members of all known Galactic GCs. Candidate members are assigned to various GCs on the basis of position in the sky, proper motion, and radial velocity. The catalogue contains a total of 7737 entries for 6422 unique stars associated with 72 Galactic GCs. Full APOGEE DR17 information is provided, including radial velocities and abundances for up to 20 elements. Membership probabilities estimated on the basis of precision radial velocities are made available. Comparisons with chemical compositions derived from the GALactic Archaeology with HERMES (GALAH) survey, as well as optical values from the literature, show good agreement. This catalogue represents a significant increase in the public data base of GC star chemical compositions and kinematics, providing a massive homogeneous data set that will enable a variety of studies. The catalogue in fits format is available for public download from the SDSS-IV DR17 value-added catalogue website.
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33. |
- Schmidt, Amand F., et al.
(författare)
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PCSK9 genetic variants and risk of type 2 diabetes : a mendelian randomisation study
- 2017
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Ingår i: The Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology. - : ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC. - 2213-8587 .- 2213-8595. ; 5:2, s. 97-105
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Statin treatment and variants in the gene encoding HMG-CoA reductase are associated with reductions in both the concentration of LDL cholesterol and the risk of coronary heart disease, but also with modest hyperglycaemia, increased bodyweight, and modestly increased risk of type 2 diabetes, which in no way off sets their substantial benefi ts. We sought to investigate the associations of LDL cholesterol-lowering PCSK9 variants with type 2 diabetes and related biomarkers to gauge the likely eff ects of PCSK9 inhibitors on diabetes risk. Methods In this mendelian randomisation study, we used data from cohort studies, randomised controlled trials, case control studies, and genetic consortia to estimate associations of PCSK9 genetic variants with LDL cholesterol, fasting blood glucose, HbA 1c, fasting insulin, bodyweight, waist-to-hip ratio, BMI, and risk of type 2 diabetes, using a standardised analysis plan, meta-analyses, and weighted gene-centric scores. Findings Data were available for more than 550 000 individuals and 51 623 cases of type 2 diabetes. Combined analyses of four independent PCSK9 variants (rs11583680, rs11591147, rs2479409, and rs11206510) scaled to 1 mmol/L lower LDL cholesterol showed associations with increased fasting glucose (0.09 mmol/L, 95% CI 0.02 to 0.15), bodyweight (1.03 kg, 0.24 to 1.82), waist-to-hip ratio (0.006, 0.003 to 0.010), and an odds ratio for type diabetes of 1.29 (1.11 to 1.50). Based on the collected data, we did not identify associations with HbA 1c (0.03%, -0.01 to 0.08), fasting insulin (0.00%, -0.06 to 0.07), and BMI (0.11 kg/m(2), -0.09 to 0.30). Interpretation PCSK9 variants associated with lower LDL cholesterol were also associated with circulating higher fasting glucose concentration, bodyweight, and waist-to-hip ratio, and an increased risk of type 2 diabetes. In trials of PCSK9 inhibitor drugs, investigators should carefully assess these safety outcomes and quantify the risks and benefi ts of PCSK9 inhibitor treatment, as was previously done for statins.
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34. |
- Schmidt, Amand F., et al.
(författare)
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Phenome-wide association analysis of LDL-cholesterol lowering genetic variants in PCSK9
- 2019
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Ingår i: BMC Cardiovascular Disorders. - : BMC. - 1471-2261 .- 1471-2261. ; 19:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: We characterised the phenotypic consequence of genetic variation at the PCSK9 locus and compared findings with recent trials of pharmacological inhibitors of PCSK9. Methods: Published and individual participant level data (300,000+ participants) were combined to construct a weighted PCSK9 gene-centric score (GS). Seventeen randomized placebo controlled PCSK9 inhibitor trials were included, providing data on 79,578 participants. Results were scaled to a one mmol/L lower LDL-C concentration. Results: The PCSK9 GS (comprising 4 SNPs) associations with plasma lipid and apolipoprotein levels were consistent in direction with treatment effects. The GS odds ratio (OR) for myocardial infarction (MI) was 0.53 (95% CI 0.42; 0.68), compared to a PCSK9 inhibitor effect of 0.90 (95% CI 0.86; 0.93). For ischemic stroke ORs were 0.84 (95% CI 0.57; 1.22) for the GS, compared to 0.85 (95% CI 0.78; 0.93) in the drug trials. ORs with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) were 1.29 (95% CI 1.11; 1.50) for the GS, as compared to 1.00 (95% CI 0.96; 1.04) for incident T2DM in PCSK9 inhibitor trials. No genetic associations were observed for cancer, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or Alzheimer's disease - outcomes for which large-scale trial data were unavailable. Conclusions: Genetic variation at the PCSK9 locus recapitulates the effects of therapeutic inhibition of PCSK9 on major blood lipid fractions and MI. While indicating an increased risk of T2DM, no other possible safety concerns were shown; although precision was moderate.
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35. |
- Siefert, Andrew, et al.
(författare)
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A global meta-analysis of the relative extent of intraspecific trait variation in plant communities
- 2015
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Ingår i: Ecology Letters. - : Wiley. - 1461-023X .- 1461-0248. ; 18:12, s. 1406-1419
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recent studies have shown that accounting for intraspecific trait variation (ITV) may better address major questions in community ecology. However, a general picture of the relative extent of ITV compared to interspecific trait variation in plant communities is still missing. Here, we conducted a meta-analysis of the relative extent of ITV within and among plant communities worldwide, using a data set encompassing 629 communities (plots) and 36 functional traits. Overall, ITV accounted for 25% of the total trait variation within communities and 32% of the total trait variation among communities on average. The relative extent of ITV tended to be greater for whole-plant (e.g. plant height) vs. organ-level traits and for leaf chemical (e.g. leaf N and P concentration) vs. leaf morphological (e.g. leaf area and thickness) traits. The relative amount of ITV decreased with increasing species richness and spatial extent, but did not vary with plant growth form or climate. These results highlight global patterns in the relative importance of ITV in plant communities, providing practical guidelines for when researchers should include ITV in trait-based community and ecosystem studies.
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36. |
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37. |
- Taphoorn, Martin J. B., et al.
(författare)
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Health-Related Quality of Life in a Randomized Phase III Study of Bevacizumab, Temozolomide, and Radiotherapy in Newly Diagnosed Glioblastoma
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of Clinical Oncology. - 0732-183X .- 1527-7755. ; 33:19, s. 2166-U205
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose As glioblastoma progresses, patients experience a decline in health-related quality of life (HRQoL). Delaying this decline is an important treatment goal. In newly diagnosed glioblastoma, progression-free survival was prolonged when bevacizumab was added to radiotherapy plus temozolomide (RT/TMZ) versus placebo plus RT/TMZ (phase III AVAglio study; hazard ratio, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.55 to 0.74; P < .001). To ensure that addition of bevacizumab to standard-of-care therapy was not associated with HRQoL detriment, HRQoL assessment was a secondary objective. Patients and Methods Patients completed European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaires C30 and BN20 at each tumor assessment (Appendix Table A1, online only). Raw scores were converted to a 100-point scale and mean changes from baseline scores were evaluated (stable: < 10-point change; clinically relevant deterioration/improvement: 10-point change). Deterioration-free survival was the time to deterioration/progression/death; time to deterioration was the time to deterioration/death. Results Most evaluable patients who had not progressed (> 74%) completed all HRQoL assessments for at least 1 year of treatment, and almost all completed at least one HRQoL assessment at baseline (98.3% and 97.6%, bevacizumab and placebo arms, respectively). Mean changes from baseline did not reach a clinically relevant difference between arms for most items. HRQoL declined at progression in both arms. The addition of bevacizumab to RT/TMZ resulted in statistically longer (P < .001) deterioration-free survival across all items. Time to deterioration was not statistically longer in the placebo plus RT/TMZ arm (v bevacizumab) for any HRQoL item. Conclusion The addition of bevacizumab to standard-of-care treatment for newly diagnosed glioblastoma had no impact on HRQoL during the progression-free period.
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