| 1. |
- Fennell, P., et al.
(författare)
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Challenges and Lessons Learned in Applying Sensitivity Analysis to Building Stock Energy Models
- 2022
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Ingår i: Building Simulation Conference Proceedings. - : KU Leuven. - 2522-2708. ; , s. 2203-2210
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Uncertainty Analysis (UA) and Sensitivity Analysis (SA) offer essential tools to determine the limits of inference of a model and explore the factors which have the most effect on the model outputs. However, despite a well-established body of work applying UA and SA to models of individual buildings, a review of the literature relating to energy models for larger groups of buildings undertaken by Fennell et al. (2019) highlighted very limited application at larger scales. This contribution describes the efforts undertaken by a group of research teams in the context of IEA-EBC Annex 70 working with a diverse set of Building Stock Models (BSMs) to apply global sensitivity analysis methods and compare their results. Since BSMs are a class of model defined by their output and coverage rather than their structure and inputs, they represent a diverse set of modelling approaches. Key challenges for the application of SA are identified and explored, including the influence of model form, input data types and model outputs. This study combines results from 7 different modelling teams, each using different models across a range of urban areas to explore these challenges and begin the process of developing standardised workflows for SA of BSMs.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Kjärstad, Jan, 1956, et al.
(författare)
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Sustainable use of energy carriers in the Kattegat/Skagerrak-region - a regional case study
- 2013
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Ingår i: The 8th Conference on Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems, SDEWES Conference Dubrovnik, Croatia, September 22-27, 2013.
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This paper reports on a recently initiated interregional project on sustainable use of energy carriers in the Kattegat/Skagerrak-region (KASK) in Norway and Sweden. The work analyses and models large-scale integration of renewable power, the potential of process integration and energy efficiency improvements in key industries in the region and identifies cost efficient solutions for an energy efficient building stock. Energy and emission statistics along with energy and climate plans are used to investigate how well the current “path” with regard to energy use and GHG emissions fits within the corresponding plans for the region. The statistics is also used to define a Reference Energy System (RES) for the region which gives a structured mapping of the energy system of the region, comprising supply, conversion and end-use of the different energy carriers/sources in the region. Based on the analysis the aim of the project is to propose one or more pathways in the short, medium and long term towards a sustainable energy system in the region. The initial work shows that final energy use for parts of the region has actually increased by 25% since 1990 while GHG emissions have declined only marginally, by 3%. Furthermore, although most municipalities in the region have targets or at least visions on significant reductions both with regard to energy use and GHG emissions they lack a clear description (pathway) of how to reach these targets (visions). This clearly indicates that thorough analysis of the energy system in the region could provide valuable insights to decision makers and stakeholders on requirements and challenges for transforming the energy system to reach the visions.
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| 4. |
- Kjärstad, Jan, 1956, et al.
(författare)
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Transforming the energy system in Västra Götaland and Halland – linking short term actions to long term goals
- 2015
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This study analyzes pathways to meet EU, national and regional targets for CO2 emissions, energy efficiency and penetration of renewable energy in the Swedish part of the Kattegat-Skagerrak region (KASK-SE), i.e. more specifically in the counties of Västra Götaland (VGR) and Halland. Special focus is placed on four areas: The potential for energy savings in the building sector, energy savings and fuel shifting in the energy intensive industry, large-scale deployment of renewables in the electricity generation sector and greenhouse gas emission reductions in the transport sector. The energy savings are through the implementation of different energy efficiency measures.
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| 5. |
- Langevin, Jared, et al.
(författare)
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Developing a common approach for classifying building stock energy models
- 2020
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Ingår i: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 1879-0690 .- 1364-0321. ; 133
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Buildings contribute 40% of global greenhouse gas emissions; therefore, strategies that can substantially reduce emissions from the building stock are key components of broader efforts to mitigate climate change and achieve sustainable development goals. Models that represent the energy use of the building stock at scale under various scenarios of technology deployment have become essential tools for the development and assessment of such strategies. Within the past decade, the capabilities of building stock energy models have improved considerably, while model transferability and sharing has increased. Given these advancements, a new scheme for classifying building stock energy models is needed to facilitate communication of modeling approaches and the handling of important model dimensions. In this article, we present a new building stock energy model classification framework that leverages international modeling expertise from the participants of the International Energy Agency's Annex 70 on Building Energy Epidemiology. Drawing from existing classification studies, we propose a multi-layer quadrant scheme that classifies modeling techniques by their design (top-down or bottom-up) and degree of transparency (black-box or white-box); hybrid techniques are also addressed. The quadrant scheme is unique from previous classification approaches in its non-hierarchical organization, coverage of and ability to incorporate emerging modeling techniques, and treatment of additional modeling dimensions. The new classification framework will be complemented by a reporting protocol and online registry of existing models as part of ongoing work in Annex 70 to increase the interpretability and utility of building stock energy models for energy policy making.
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Mata Las Heras, Erika, 1980, et al.
(författare)
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A modelling strategy for energy, carbon, and cost assessments of building stocks.
- 2013
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Ingår i: Energy and Buildings. - : Elsevier BV. - 0378-7788. ; 56, s. 100-108
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents the Energy, Carbon and Cost Assessment for Building Stocks (ECCABS) model, whichis a bottom-up model to assess energy-saving measures (ESM) and carbon dioxide (CO2) mitigationstrategies in building stocks. The model is based on a one-zone hourly heat balance that calculates thenet energy demand for a number of buildings representative of the building stock and an additional codefor the input and output data. The model generates results in terms of delivered energy, associated CO2emissions, and the costs of implementing different ESM. The results are extended to the entire buildingstock by means of weighting factors. Empirical and comparative validations of the heat-balance modellingof single buildings are presented. The building stock modelling is validated against the current Swedishresidential stock, for which the results of the modelling are in agreement with the statistical data. Usingthe model to assess a number of ESM reveals that the energy usage of the Swedish residential sector canbe reduced by 55% and the associated CO2 emissions can be reduced by 63%, with most of the ESM beingcost–effective. The applicability of the model to countries other than Sweden is under investigation.
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
- Mata Las Heras, Erika, 1980, et al.
(författare)
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Building-Stock Aggregation through Archetype Buildings: France, Germany, Spain and the UK
- 2014
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Ingår i: Building and Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 0360-1323. ; 81, s. 270-282
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Knowledge regarding the characteristics of national building stocks is fundamental to understanding how the energy performance of the building stock can be improved. To facilitate large diversity and a number of buildings for such analyses, this paper presents a methodology by which national building stocks may be aggregated through archetype buildings. The methodology has been implemented and verified in four EU countries in regions with different climates, namely France, Germany, Spain and the UK. These countries account for about half of the final energy consumption of the EU-28 buildings. The analysis includes the residential and non-residential sectors (residential sector only for Germany). The number of archetypes per country has been defined according to different categories of building type, construction year, climate region and the main fuel source for heating purposes. The accuracy of the description is validated by simulating energy demand using the ECCABS Building Stock Model, and comparing the final energy demand modelled with corresponding statistical data. The total final energy demand calculated for these countries differs from available statistics by between -6% and +2 %, which is considered satisfactory. The proposed description of the building stock is being used as a basis for analyzing the potential for and cost of energy conservation measures.
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| 10. |
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| 11. |
- Mata Las Heras, Erika, 1980, et al.
(författare)
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Cost-effective retrofitting of Swedish residential buildings: effects of energy price developments and discount rates
- 2015
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Ingår i: Energy Efficiency. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1570-646X .- 1570-6478. ; 8:2, s. 223-237
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper investigates how the cost-effectiveness of different energy-saving measures (ESMs) in buildings is dependent upon energy prices and discount rates. A bottom-up modelling methodology is used to assess the profitability of different ESMs for Swedish residential buildings. The cost-effectiveness and total techno-economical potential for energy saving of each ESM are calculated for three different scenarios of energy prices up to year 2050 and for different discount rates, including an estimate of the market potentials derived by applying the implicit discount rates given in the literature. The three energy-price scenarios give similar techno-economical reductions of delivered energy (by 31–42 %), as well as a similar ranking for the investigated cost-effective ESMs. This means that there are cost-efficient opportunities for energy reductions in Swedish households for any future developments of the energy prices investigated in this work. The energy price developments have lower impacts than interest rates on the techno-economical potentials of the different ESMs. Thus, increasing energy prices cannot be expected to promote significantly the adoption of ESMs, whereas facilitating the financing of investments in ESMs and reducing other consumer barriers should play key roles in the implementation of ESMs. The importance of allaying stakeholders’ reservations is further stressed by the fact that the estimated market potentials for the ESMs are significantly lower than the techno-economical potentials, underscoring the need for policy actions that accelerate the achievement of the identified techno-economical potentials.
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| 12. |
- Mata Las Heras, Erika, 1980, et al.
(författare)
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Cost-Effectiveness of Retrofitting Swedish Buildings
- 2017
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Ingår i: Cost-Effective Energy Efficient Building Retrofitting: Materials, Technologies, Optimization and Case Studies. - 9780081011287 ; , s. 343-362
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This chapter presents potentials for energy conservation through energy retrofitting of existing Swedish buildings, including residential and nonresidential buildings. The Swedish building stock is described with 1800 representative buildings, in a combination of sample and archetype buildings, and is modeled with a dynamic and detailed building-stock model. Ten individual energy conservation measures and 6 packages of measures are considered. The chapter also presents how the cost-effectiveness of the measures depends on energy prices, discount rates, and the assumed investment costs for the different measures. The results are presented and discussed separately for residential buildings, divided into single-family dwellings and multifamily dwellings, and nonresidential buildings.
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| 13. |
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| 14. |
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| 15. |
- Mata Las Heras, Erika, 1980, et al.
(författare)
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Description of the European building stock through archetype buildings
- 2013
-
Ingår i: 8th Conference on Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems – SDEWES Conference, September 22-27, 2013, Dubrovnik, Croatia..
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents a methodology for systematic description of the EU building stock through archetype buildings with the aim to form a basis for analysing the potential for and cost of energy saving measures. The analysis includes the residential and non-residential sectors. Four countries in different climate regions, accounting for about half of the final energy consumption of EU-27 buildings, have been selected for the study, namely: France, Germany, Spain and UK. The number of archetypes per country has been defined corresponding to different categories of building type, construction year, climate region and main fuel source for heating. The accuracy of the description is validated by simulating energy demand with the building stock model ECCABS, and comparing the modelled final energy demand with corresponding data from statistics. The calculated total final energy demand for each country is within -9% and +3 % deviation from available statistics, which is considered satisfactory.
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| 16. |
- Mata Las Heras, Erika, 1980
(författare)
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Energy efficiency and carbon dioxide mitigation in building stocks-
- 2011
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Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This thesis investigates the implementation of energy-saving measures (ESM) in existing building stocks from an energy systems perspective. The effects of the measures are assessed in terms of net and delivered energy levels, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and the costs for implementing the measures. For this assessment, abottom-up engineering energy balance model was developed that facilitates modelling of an entire building stock, i.e., the Energy, Carbon and Cost Assessment for BuildingStocks (ECCABS) model. The model was validated by modelling a residential building in Sweden and an office building in Spain, and by comparing the results from the model developed in this work with the measurements and results from a detailed heat balance model. The simplified model gives satisfactory results. When the model was applied to 1400 buildings that were chosen as being representative of the Swedish residential building stock, the results showed good agreement with the available statistics on energy use in the Swedish residential building stock.Application of the investigated ESM would reduce the net energy demand of the Swedish residential sector by 55%. The measures that would provide the greatest savings are installation of heat recovery systems (22%) and reduction of the indoor temperature (14%). The ECCABS model indicated that the upgrading of the U-value of basements and the U-value of facades and the replacement of windows would provide an annual energy saving of about 7% each. The net potential reductions in CO2 emissions arising from the implementation of the ESM would be low, since the energy supply in Sweden generally associated with low levels of CO2 emissions. In addition, measures that reduce the electricity for lighting and appliances would increase CO2 emissions, since the electricity saved is less CO2-intensive than the fuel mix used for the corresponding increase in space heating.The model is also applied to evaluate the profitability of ESM for the Swedish residential stock under different scenarios for the development of the energy system, particularly with respect to the prices of energy carriers used as fuels in the buildings. Three scenarios were investigated: a baseline scenario that assumes current energy prices and a continuation of the present trends in energy use, and two climate change mitigation scenarios.Already in the Baseline scenario, energy use could be reduced by 30% by implementing profitable ESM, whereas the climate change mitigation scenarios generate only modest increases in profitable energy reduction in spite of higher energy prices. The most profitable ESM are the same in all three scenarios and they involve: (1) a reduction by 50% of electricity for lighting and appliances; (2) a reduction of indoor temperature down to 20ºC; and (3) heat recovery for single-family dwellings. In contrast, the modelling reveals that the replacement of existing hydropumps with more efficient ones and the retrofitting of the building envelope are the most expensive ESM. The three scenarios give similar average annual costs for the ESM for the period 2010-2050. However, it cannot be expected that all of the cost efficiency potentials described in this thesis will be seized. Thus, further work is required to investigate how the energy-saving potentials identified in this work can be implemented.
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| 17. |
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| 18. |
- Mata Las Heras, Erika, 1980, et al.
(författare)
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Energy usage and technical potential for energy saving measures in the Swedish residential building stock
- 2013
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Ingår i: Energy Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0301-4215. ; 55, s. 404-414
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper provides an analysis of the current energy usage (net energy and final energy by fuels) and associated carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of the Swedish residential building stock, which includes single-family dwellings and multi-family dwellings. Twelve energy saving measures (ESMs) are assessed using a bottom–up modeling methodology, in which the Swedish residential stock is represented by a sample of 1400 buildings (based on data from the year 2005). Application of the ESMs studied gives a maximum technical reduction potential in energy demand of 53%, corresponding to a 63% reduction in CO2 emissions. Although application of the investigated ESMs would reduce CO2 emissions, the measures that reduce electricity consumption for lighting and appliances (LA) will increase CO2 emissions, since the saved electricity production is less CO2-intensive than the fuel mix used for the increased space heating required to make up for the loss in indirect heating obtained from LA.
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| 19. |
- Mata Las Heras, Erika, 1980
(författare)
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Modelling Energy Conservation and CO2 Mitigation in the European Building Stock
- 2013
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This thesis investigates energy conservation in building stocks with the aim of developing a methodology that can be applied to the national building stocks of the European Union (EU). For this purpose, a bottom-up building-stock model and a methodology for describing the building-stock have been established. The model is based on a one-zone building energy balance, which provides the hourly net energy demand for all end-uses and which has been validated by empirical and comparative means for selected buildings. The results for representative buildings are subsequently extrapolated to the entire building stock with respect to net and final energy demand, associated CO2 emissions, and costs for implementing a portfolio of energy conservation measures (ECMs). The methodology for building stock aggregation through archetype buildings comprises the following elements: (1) segmentation, in which the number of archetype buildings required to represent the entire stock is decided according to building type, construction year, heating system, and climate zone; (2) characterization, whereby each archetype is described in terms of its physical and technical characteristics; (3) quantification, whereby the number of buildings in the stock represented by each archetype building is determined. The archetype description is used as an input to the model, from which the final energy use is calculated, and the results are validated by comparison with the available statistics. The archetype description has been developed and validated for the building stocks of France, Germany, Spain and UK, which account for half of the final energy use of the residential and non-residential buildings in the EU-27 countries.Using the building stock model to apply various ECMs to the Swedish residential building stock and the entire Spanish residential and non-residential building stock, which are representative of Northern and Southern EU buildings, respectively, the final energy demands of the Swedish and Spanish building stock are found to be reduced by 50%. In both countries, the different forms of envelope upgrades confer the largest technical potential reductions for all buildings. However, other ECMs with significant potentials differ between the two countries and subsectors. The levels of CO2 emissions from the Swedish residential buildings and the Spanish buildings can be reduced by 60%–70%. Although the application of the ECMs generally reduces CO2 emissions, the effects of measures that reduce electricity use for lighting and appliances rely on whether the saved electricity production is less or more CO2-intensive than the fuel mix used for space heating. Techno-economical potential reductions of energy demand by 20%–30% are identified for Sweden and Spain, corresponding to CO2 emissions reductions of 40%–50%. These potentials increase when packages of ECMs are applied. Furthermore, the packages were more cost-effective than the individual ECMs. The market potentials identified are substantially lower than the techno-economical potentials. If the techno-economic potentials identified in this work are to be implemented, there is a need for strong policy measures to influence stakeholder actions.
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| 20. |
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| 21. |
- Mata Las Heras, Erika, 1980, et al.
(författare)
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Modelling opportunities and costs associated with energy conservation in the Spanish building stock
- 2015
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Ingår i: Energy and Buildings. - : Elsevier BV. - 0378-7788. ; 88, s. 347-360
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The aim of this paper is twofold: to investigate the applicability of a building-stock modelling methodology to assess the potential of Energy Conservation Measures (ECMs) and their associated effects on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for a building stock in a South European climate, with Spain being used as an example; and to analyse the technical potentials and costs of the ECMs when applied both individually and as packages of multiple ECMs for the entire Spanish building stock, including residential and non-residential buildings. The modelling methodology, which has been designed to be applicable to any European country, is fully dynamic and based on an aggregated description of the building stock. This paper updates and validates the methodology to account for the climate and technical characteristics of the region under study. Applying all ECMs as a package gives a potential technical reduction in final energy demand of 55% and a 65% reduction in CO2 emissions, while the corresponding techno-economical potentials are 33% and 37%. Nevertheless, the market potentials estimated are substantially lower (5–10%), which indicate that policy shifts are needed if the techno-economic potentials identified in this work are to be realized.
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| 22. |
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| 23. |
- Mata Las Heras, Erika, 1980, et al.
(författare)
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Regionalization of buildings-stock description as basis for evaluating energy conservation measures - South East Norway and South West Sweden
- 2014
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Ingår i: World Sustainable Building 2014 Conference. - 9788469718155
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents a description of regional building stocks in the South West of Sweden and the South East of Norway and provides a first validation by means of modelled Final Energy Demand, which is compared with available statistics. The aim of the work is to provide a basis for modelling the assessment of effects and costs of various energy conservation measures applied to the existing building stocks of regions within a country. The aggregated descriptions of the national building stocks of Sweden and Norway through representative buildings are downscaled to the regions. We conclude that the uncertainty in the methodology applied is higher for the regions than for the national level, due primarily to less data available for validation than on the national level. This uncertainty raises concern about how targets on increased energy efficiency and emissions reductions and are going to be monitored, if such targets are to be fulfilled.
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| 24. |
- Mata Las Heras, Erika, 1980, et al.
(författare)
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Retrofitting measures for energy savings in the Swedish residential building stock – assessing methodology
- 2010
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Ingår i: 11th International Conference on Thermal Performance of the Exterior Envelopes of Whole Buildings, Buildings XI; Sheraton Sand Key Resort in Clearwater BeachClearwater; United States; 5 December 2010 through 9 December 2010. - 9781933742892 ; , s. 12-
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The aim of this work is to develop a bottom-up methodology that can assess energy efficiency and carbon dioxide (CO2) mitigation strategies in the existing building stock. The work concerns the European building stock and is part of an overall analysis of how the European energy system can be transformed to be more sustainable. This paper reports on the validation of the methodology through its application to a sample of 1400 buildings representative of the Swedish residential stock based on data from 2005. Energy and CO2 assessments are performed; all the resultant potentials are presented as a function of costs for the energy-saving measures studied. The results obtained for Sweden are compared to results available in the literature and discussed in relation to the further application of the methodology to the European building stock as a whole. Such application must take into account national differences in energy supply systems (heat and electricity) and characteristics of the building stock. In addition, the use of sample buildings is data intensive, and data may not be available for some European Union member states. Thus, the next step should be to further develop the model so as to be able to also use archetype buildings instead of sample buildings, allowing the use of national statistics and general information on building characteristics as model input. Transaction costs and interactions of demand side and supply side should also be included in the cost calculations.
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| 25. |
- Mata Las Heras, Erika, 1980, et al.
(författare)
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Transforming the energy system in Västra Götaland and Halland - the potential for energy savings and CO2 emissions reductions in the building sector
- 2014
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This report belongs to Work Package 2 of the project Sustainable use of energy carriers in the KASK region (http://www.kask-energy.eu/project). The overall target for the project is to study how improving energy efficiency and large scale integration of renewable energy can contribute to economic and environmental sustainable development of the Kattegat-Skagerrak region (KASK). Possible development routes are studied with today's energy situation as starting point, to show how the energy system in the region can be designed towards a more sustainable system in short (2020), medium (2030) and long term (2050). The project is split in four different work packages. Work package 2 includes detailed studies of how to improve energy efficiency in key industries and in the existing building stock, as well as a study of integration of wind/renewable energy into the existing energy net. This technical report focuses on the results for the building sector and, therefore, presents the methodological details in the appendixes, as follows: Chapter 1describes the building stock of KASK with respect to the characteristics that are determinant for the buildings´ energy use and associated CO2 emissions, i.e. number of buildings and dwellings/premises, heated floor areas and fuel use. The method and data sources used are presented in Appendix A, the validation of the description is presented in Appendix B. CO2 emissions data are presented in Appendix C. Chapter 2 presents the different individual ECMs and packages of ECMs investigated in this work. Chapter 3 reports of the obtained technical, techno-economic and market potentials for the Swedish KASK. Detailed results for Västra Götaland and Halland, and for their residential and non-residential subsectors are provided in the Appendix D. Chapter 4 summarizes the main findings and identifies challenges.
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| 26. |
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| 27. |
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| 28. |
- Nik, Vahid, 1979, et al.
(författare)
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A statistical method for comparing different retrofitting measures of buildings and evaluating their robustness against climate change
- 2015
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Ingår i: Energy and Buildings. - : Elsevier BV. - 0378-7788. ; 88, s. 262-275
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Evaluating the usefulness and the reliability of retrofitted buildings for future climate can be a challenging task, while different scenarios and uncertainties exist both for retrofitting buildings and future climate. This paper presents a method to assess and quantify the relative robustness of retrofitting measures on long term, while climate variations in different time scales, extreme conditions and uncertainties of climate change are considered. The applicability of the method is examined by comparing two energy retrofitting measures for the existing residential building stock of Stockholm, whose energy performance is numerically simulated during 1961–2100 for five climate scenarios. The considered climate uncertainties are due to downscaling climate data from five different global climate models. The relative robustness of the retrofitting measures are evaluated in five time scales; hourly, daily, monthly, annual and 20-year period.The presented method facilitates the assessment and ranking of retrofitting measures, using few numbers. It also generates an overall view about the relative performance of retrofitting measures in different time scales.
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| 29. |
- Nik, Vahid, 1979, et al.
(författare)
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Assessing the efficiency and robustness of the retrofitted building envelope against climate change
- 2015
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Ingår i: Energy Procedia. - : Elsevier BV. - 1876-6102. ; 78, s. 955-960
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Evaluating the performance of retrofitted buildings for future climatic conditions can be a challenging task since different scenarios and uncertainties exist both for retrofitting of buildings and for future climate. This paper evaluates the energy performance of four retrofitting measures - applied to the building envelope - of the residential building stock in Gothenburg, Sweden. The energy efficiency of the measures is evaluated both on long and short terms, while their robustness against climate uncertainties and extreme climatic conditions is studied. The assessment is carried out using a statistical method, which has been developed specifically for this kind of analysis. The considered measures are ranked by looking into their average performance and their variations during different time scales, i.e. from one hour to 20 years. The analysis helps to identify the retrofitting measures with the most efficient and the most reliable performance for future climatic conditions.
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| 30. |
- Nik, Vahid M., et al.
(författare)
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Effective and robust energy retrofitting measures for future climatic conditions—Reduced heating demand of Swedish households
- 2016
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Ingår i: Energy and Buildings. - : Elsevier BV. - 0378-7788. ; 121, s. 176-187
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This article quantifies the energy saving potential and robustness of nine energy retrofitting measures, as well as four combinations of these, for residential building stocks of three major cities in Sweden and for five scenarios of future climatic conditions, downscaled by a regional climate model (RCM). The retrofitting measures are evaluated for five temporal resolutions of hourly, daily, monthly, annual and 20-years during the period of 1961 through 2100. The evaluation takes into account a very important uncertainty factor of future climate data, induced by different global climate models (GCMs). The application of a statistical method for assessing the retrofitting measures is being evaluated. Results verify the consistency and reliability of the comparative assessment and confirm the possibility of assessing the retrofitting measures without the need for long-term simulations and considering climate uncertainties. Among the considered retrofitting measures, a combination of an improved thermal insulation of the building envelope with energy efficient windows is the most effective and robust retrofitting measure, while tuning the indoor set-point temperature to 20°C can also contribute to significant energy savings.
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| 31. |
- Nyholm, Emil, 1984, et al.
(författare)
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Demand response potential of electrical space heating in Swedish single-family dwellings
- 2016
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Ingår i: Building and Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 0360-1323. ; 96:1, s. 270-282
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper investigates the potential and economics of electrical space heating in Swedish single-family dwellings (SFDs) to provide Demand Response (DR) for the electricity load in Sweden.A dynamic and detailed building-stock model, is used to calculate the net energy demand by end-use of a set of sample buildings taken as representative of all Swedish SFDs with electrical heating. A new sub-model optimizes the dispatch of heating systems on an hourly basis, for each representative building, minimizing the cost of electricity purchased from the hourly spot market.The analysis of the Swedish SFD buildings indicates a technical DR capacity potential of 7.3 GW, which is considerable and can be used for the management of intermittent electricity generation. This potential could also prove to be valuable in the operating reserve market. However, this requires that the DR, rather than being governed by a single hourly electricity price signal, would instead be subject to a more centralized control. The modeling shows that DR can be expected to result in up to 5.5 GW of decreased load and 4.4 GW of increased load, if applying current Swedish electricity prices. The modeling shows that DR shifts up to 1.46 TWh of electric heating, corresponding to 1% of total Swedish electricity demand. The potential savings from DR for individual SFDs is found to be low, 0.9–330 €/year, given current Swedish electricity prices.
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| 32. |
- Ó Broin, Eoin, 1973, et al.
(författare)
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Modelling Energy demand to 2050 in the EU Building Stock – a bottom-up analysis
- 2012
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Ingår i: Proceedings of World Sustainable Energy Days conference, 29th - March 2nd 2012 , Wels, Austria.
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Lowering absolute energy demand in buildings is a key policy goal of the EU. This is to be achieved primarily through improvements in end use efficiency. This paper presents results of a modelling work which examines three different scenarios for efficiency of energy end uses for the EU 27 building stock to 2050. The model is a coarse bottom-up engineering variant. The model and scenarios applied are described and the results obtained are related to EU goals and aspirations for 2020 and 2050. Model outputs estimate that if energy efficiency was frozen at today’s level, expansion of the building stock and other increases in standards would increase final energy demand in the EU by almost 70% by 2050 whereas continuing efforts at efficiency along current rates could stabilise energy demand. A reduction consistent with the EU’s 20% efficiency improvement target for the year 2020 is also shown to be possible, but needs forceful policy for success. Results from the work also show that the EU aspiration for a reduction in CO2 emissions of 90 % from buildings by 2050 can be met via the penetration of biomass, district heating and heat pumps at the building level provided there is sufficient decarbonisation of the supply system as well.
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| 33. |
- Ó Broin, Eoin, 1973, et al.
(författare)
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Quantification of the Energy Efficiency Gap in the Swedish Residential Sector
- 2015
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Ingår i: Energy Efficiency. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1570-646X .- 1570-6478. ; 8:5, s. 975-993
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present a method for quantifying the energy efficiency gap ex-ante. To do this we define the energy efficiency gap as being the difference between the ex-ante market and techno-economic energy savings potentials. The estimation of market potential is based on top-down (econometric) modelling of energy demand using data from the period 1970–2005. The techno-economical estimates are made using a bottom-up building stock model (ECCABS), to assess the effects and cost-efficiency of various energy efficiency measures. Common to these two modelling approaches are two scenarios of energy prices, which differ only with respect to the carbon tax component. We implement the method for the case of useful energy demand for space and water heating in the Swedish residential sector up to 2030.In comparison to the level of energy use in 2005 (74 TWh), the top-down model predicts for 2030 reductions in demand for the two price scenarios of 17 TWh and 21 TWh, respectively. The bottom-up model predicts corresponding reductions in demand of 25 TWh and 31 TWh, respectively. Thus, there is an energy efficiency gap between the two models of at least 8 TWh in 2030. An implicit discount rate of 10% would render the results from the bottom-up modelling identical to those from the top-down modelling. However the presence of the energy efficiency gap indicates that there is a need for enhanced policies in order to make future reductions in energy demand reach the levels predicted by the bottom-up modelling.
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| 34. |
- Ó Broin, Eoin, 1973, et al.
(författare)
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Quantifying the Energy Efficiency Gap for Space and Water heating in the Residential Sector in Sweden
- 2011
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Ingår i: Proceedings of Energy efficiency first: The foundation of a low-carbon society, European Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (ECEEE) 2011 Summer Study 6–11 June 2011 Belambra Presqu'île de Giens, France. - 9789163344558
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Two different methodologies, one top-down and one bottom-up, are presented for estimating potential future energy demand for space and water heating in the existing building stock of the residential sector to 2030. Two future price scenarios are used as inputs. The work is tested using data for the existing Swedish residential building stock. Compared to 2005 levels of energy use (74 TWh) the bottom-up model shows reductions to 52 TWh and 50 TWh for the two price scenarios, respectively. Results from the top-down model are 11 % (8 TWh) and 7 % (5 TWh) higher than those of the bottom-up model for the two price scenarios. This suggests that the price mechanism alone will not be sufficient to achieve the full techno-economic potential for energy efficiency.
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| 35. |
- Ó Broin, Eoin, 1973, et al.
(författare)
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The effect of improved efficiency on energy savings in EU-27 buildings
- 2013
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Ingår i: Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0360-5442. ; 57, s. 134-148
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Utilising energy efficiency to lower energy demand in buildings is a key policy goal of the European Commission. This paper presents the results of bottom-up modelling to elucidate the impact of energy efficiency on the EU building stock up to 2050 under three different scenarios. The modelling is performed for eight individual EU countries and a ninth hypothetical entity that represents the remaining nineteen EU countries. The scenarios highlight the roles of different levels of efficiency improvements in the context of increasing floor area and the demand for energy services. From the results it can be concluded that the EC 2020 goals for primary energy savings can be met by focussing on a combination of minimum efficiency construction standards, improved conversion efficiency standards for final energy to useful energy, and a ≥2% annual improvement in end-use efficiency applied at the useful energy level. A comparison of the results obtained in the present study for Spain with the estimates of savings documented in the Spanish Energy Efficiency Action Plan indicate that the plan could lead to the closing of the energy efficiency gap for buildings in that country by 2020.
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| 36. |
- Thuvander, Liane, 1970, et al.
(författare)
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Spatial exploration of the refurbishment dynamics of urban housing stocks
- 2015
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Ingår i: CUPUM 2015 - 14th International Conference on Computers in Urban Planning and Urban Management. - : CUPUM. - 9780692474341
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study investigates previous refurbishment activities linked to spatial distribution of individual buildings. The work identifies where larger changes has been made (or not), to what extent and in relation to type of ownership. A specific aim is to test selected parameters from the Swedish Property register to analyze refurbishments using the multi-family residen-tial building stock of the city of Gothenburg, 7172 buildings, as an example. The stock has been divided into six age-classes: before 1931, 1931-1945, 1946-1960, 1961-1975, 1976-1990, and 1991-2005. Extensive refurbish-ment activities were carried out in the stock constructed before 1946. Almost half of the stock has not been refurbished to a larger extent. There is no clear relation between type of ownership and larger refurbishments for the total stock, however the tenant owned stock is less refurbished for the periods covering 1931-1975. The property register is a valuable source for studying major refurbishment activities in lager stocks. Further studies are needed to obtain a more nuanced picture of the refurbishment activities.
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| 37. |
- Österbring, Magnus, 1986, et al.
(författare)
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A differentiated description of building-stocks for a georeferenced urban bottom-up building-stock model
- 2016
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Ingår i: Energy and Buildings. - : Elsevier Ltd. - 0378-7788 .- 1872-6178. ; 120, s. 78-84
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Several building-stock modelling techniques have been employed to investigate the impact of energy efficiency measures (EEM), where the description of the building-stock generally consists of an age-type classification to specify building characteristics for groups of buildings. Such descriptions lack the appropriate level of detail to differentiate the potential for EEM within age groups. This paper proposes a methodology for building-stock description using building-specific data and measured energy use to augment an age-type building-stock classification. By integrating building characteristics from energy performance certificates, measured energy use and envelope areas from a 2.5D GIS model, the building-stock description reflects the heterogeneity of the building-stock. The proposed method is validated using a local building portfolio (N = 433) in the city of Gothenburg, where modelled results for space heating and domestic hot water are compared to data from measurements, both on an individual building level and for the entire portfolio. Calculated energy use based on the building-stock description of the portfolio differ less than 3% from measured values, with 42% of the individual buildings being within a 20% margin of measured energy use indicating further work is needed to reduce or quantify the uncertainty on a building level.
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| 38. |
- Österbring, Magnus, 1986, et al.
(författare)
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A methodology for spatial modelling of energy and resource use of buildings in urbanized areas
- 2014
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Ingår i: World Sustainable Building Conference WSB14 Barcelona. - 9788469718155
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This paper presents and discusses a methodology for modeling energy and resource use ofurban building stocks. The methodology integrates and further develops methodologies for energy,carbon and resource use analysis on building stocks with the aim of applying these to a case study ofthe City of Gothenburg, Sweden. Integrating geographical information systems (GIS) in themethodology for modeling of the building stock, allows assessment of the contribution and effect ofvarious strategies to meet environmental goals for municipalities, portfolio owners, such as housingassociations and institutional investors. The methodology identifies different development strategiesincluding various options for refurbishment, add-on and new construction, which are evaluated withrespect to their potential environmental impacts related to the life-cycle of the building, includingconstruction and end-of-life options.
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| 39. |
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| 40. |
- Österbring, Magnus, 1986, et al.
(författare)
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Renovation Needs and Potential for Improved Energy Performance Depending on Ownership – A Location Based Study of Multi-Family Building Stocks in an Urban Context
- 2017
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the World Sustainable Built Environment Conference 2017, Hong kong 5-7th June. ; , s. 696-701
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The transformation of urban building-stocks is fundamental to achieve climate change mitigation targets. As therate of renewal of the building-stock is low, energy efficiency measures need to be applied when renovation isbeing done. To evaluate the renovation potential of the existing building stock on an urban level, a local approachis needed to understand challenges and possibilities associated with its transformation. The aim of this study is toinvestigate the renovation needs and potentials for implementation of energy efficiency measures in relation toowner and type of ownership for the buildings. For this purpose, available databases containing building-specificinformation have been gathered and processed for the multi-family building stock of the city of Gothenburg,Sweden. These data sources are used to describe the energy performance of the stock and future renovationneeds based on type of property ownership while considering the location and context of the buildings usinggeographic information systems. Building attributes such as year of construction, value year, property owner,geometric data and energy performance certificates are spatially linked and visualized to describe the energyperformance of buildings and its relation to renovation need, providing detailed and valuable information to propertyowners. Buildings from the period 1960 - 1975 are of particular importance as they constitute 42% of the multifamilybuilding stock, have the highest average energy use (146 kWh/m2/year) and have to a large extent not beenrenovated. The municipality’s housing company own 36 % of the total stock and even more so considering buildingsfrom this period. While there will be a significant challenge in renovating their stock, this also presents anopportunity for large reductions in energy use. By incorporating building-specific information and considering thebuilding in its local setting, a more holistic and realistic view on energy saving potentials can be achieved. Theresults aim to support owners of larger property portfolios in prioritizing buildings suitable for renovation.
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| 41. |
- Österbring, Magnus, 1986, et al.
(författare)
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Stakeholder Specific Multi-Scale Spatial Representation of Urban Building-Stocks
- 2018
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Ingår i: ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information. - : MDPI AG. - 2220-9964. ; 7:5, s. 173-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Urban building-stocks use a significant amount of resources and energy. At the same time, theyhave a large potential for energy efficiency measures (EEM). To support decision-making and planning, spatial building-stock models are used to examine the current state and future development of urbanbuilding-stocks. While these models normally focus on specific cities, generic and broad stakeholder groups such as planners and policy makers are often targeted. Consequently, the visualization and communication of results are not tailored to these stakeholders. The aim of this paper is to explore the possibilities of mapping and representing energy use of urban building-stocks at different levels of aggregation and spatial distributions, to communicate with specific stakeholders involved in the urban development process. This paper uses a differentiated building-stock description based on building-specific data andmeasured energy use fromenergy performance certificates formulti-family buildings (MFB) in the city of Gothenburg. The building-stock description treats every building as unique, allowing results to be provided at any level of aggregation to suit the needs of the specific stakeholders involved. Calculated energy use of the existing stock is within 10% of the measured energy use. The potential for EEM in the existing stock is negated by the increased energy use due to new construction until 2035, using a development scenario based on current renovation rates and planned developments. Visualizations of the current energy use of the stock as well as the impact of renovation and new construction are provided, targeting specific local stakeholders.
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