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1.
  • Al-Daghri, N. M., et al. (författare)
  • The application of FRAX in Saudi Arabia
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Archives of Osteoporosis. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1862-3522 .- 1862-3514. ; 16:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • A Summary Assessment and treatment pathways based on age-specific intervention thresholds in Saudi Arabi can be used to identify patients at high risk of fracture and avoid unnecessary treatment in those at low fracture risk. Purpose Intervention thresholds for the treatment of osteoporosis have historically been based on the measurement of bone mineral density. The aim of the present study was to explore treatment paths and characteristics of women eligible for treatment in Saudi Arabia based on fracture probabilities derived from FRAX (R). Methods The approach to the setting of intervention and assessment thresholds used the methodology adopted by the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group for FRAX-based guidelines in the UK but based on the epidemiology of fracture and death in Saudi Arabia. The methodology was applied to women age 40 years or more drawn from a tertiary referral population for skeletal assessment. Missing data for the calculation of FRAX was simulated using data from the referral and FRAX derivation cohorts. Results Intervention thresholds expressed as a 10-year probability of a major osteoporotic fracture ranged from 2.0% at the age of 50 years increasing to 7.6% at the age of 70 years. A total of 163 of 1365 women (11.9%) had a prior fragility fracture and would be eligible for treatment for this reason. An additional 5 women were eligible for treatment in that MOF probabilities lay above the upper assessment threshold. A BMD test would be recommended for 593 women (43.4%) so that FRAX could be recalculated with the inclusion of femoral neck BMD. Of these, 220 individuals would be eligible for treatment after a BMD test and 373 women categorised at low risk after a BMD test. Conclusion Probability-based assessment of fracture risk using age-specific intervention thresholds was developed for Saudi Arabia to help guide decisions about treatment.
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2.
  • Borgström, F, et al. (författare)
  • The cost-effectiveness of risedronate in the UK for the management of osteoporosis using the FRAX(R).
  • 2009
  • Ingår i: Osteoporosis International. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0937-941X .- 1433-2965.
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The study estimated the cost-effectiveness of risedronate compared to no treatment in UK women using the FRAX algorithm for fracture risk assessment. A Markov cohort model was used to estimate the cost-effectiveness. Risedronate was found cost-effective from the age of 65 years, assuming a willingness to pay for a QALY of pound30,000. INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of risedronate for the prevention and treatment in a UK setting using the FRAX(R) algorithm for fracture risk assessment. A further aim was to establish intervention thresholds with risedronate treatment. METHODS: The cost-effectiveness of risedronate was compared to no treatment in post-menopausal women with clinical risk factors for fracture using a Markov cohort model populated with data relevant for the UK. The model incorporated the features of FRAX(R) (the WHO risk assessment tool). The analysis had a health care perspective and quality adjusted life years was used as the main outcome measure. RESULTS: Treatment was cost-effective from the age of 65 years, assuming a willingness to pay for a QALY of pound30,000. Treatment was also cost-effective at all ages in women who had previously sustained a fragility fracture or in women with a parental history of hip fracture with a bone mineral density set at the threshold of osteoporosis. At the pound30,000 threshold value for a QALY, risedronate was on average found to cost-effective below the 10-year probability of a major osteoporotic fractures of 13.0%. CONCLUSIONS: Risedronate is a cost-effective agent for the treatment of established osteoporosis (osteoporosis and a prior fragility fracture) in women from the age of 50 years and older and above 65 years in women with osteoporosis alone. The results support the treatment recommendations in recent UK guidelines for osteoporosis.
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3.
  • Chotiyarnwong, P., et al. (författare)
  • Is it time to consider population screening for fracture risk in postmenopausal women? A position paper from the International Osteoporosis Foundation Epidemiology/Quality of Life Working Group
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Archives of Osteoporosis. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1862-3522 .- 1862-3514. ; 17:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • A Summary The IOF Epidemiology and Quality of Life Working Group has reviewed the potential role of population screening for high hip fracture risk against well-established criteria. The report concludes that such an approach should strongly be considered in many health care systems to reduce the burden of hip fractures. Introduction The burden of long-term osteoporosis management falls on primary care in most healthcare systems. However, a wide and stable treatment gap exists in many such settings; most of which appears to be secondary to a lack of awareness of fracture risk. Screening is a public health measure for the purpose of identifying individuals who are likely to benefit from further investigations and/or treatment to reduce the risk of a disease or its complications. The purpose of this report was to review the evidence for a potential screening programme to identify postmenopausal women at increased risk of hip fracture. Methods The approach took well-established criteria for the development of a screening program, adapted by the UK National Screening Committee, and sought the opinion of 20 members of the International Osteoporosis Foundation's Working Group on Epidemiology and Quality of Life as to whether each criterion was met (yes, partial or no). For each criterion, the evidence base was then reviewed and summarized. Results and Conclusion The report concludes that evidence supports the proposal that screening for high fracture risk in primary care should strongly be considered for incorporation into many health care systems to reduce the burden of fractures, particularly hip fractures. The key remaining hurdles to overcome are engagement with primary care healthcare professionals, and the implementation of systems that facilitate and maintain the screening program.
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  • Chotiyarnwong, P., et al. (författare)
  • Temporal changes in access to FRAX (R) in Thailand between 2010 and 2018
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Archives of Osteoporosis. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1862-3522 .- 1862-3514. ; 14:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The usage of FRAX (R) tool in Thailand and other countries was explored using Google Analytics data. Over the period 2010-2018, Thailand ranked 35th in the world for FRAX usage (the US is ranked first). Incorporation of FRAX into a national osteoporosis guideline in Thailand appears to have increased its usage.PurposeTo document access to the web-based FRAX (R) tool and specifically its access in Thailand between 2010 and 2018.MethodsA descriptive retrospective study using data from Google Analytics that provides numerical and geographical information on internet access to the FRAX tool website worldwide.ResultIn Thailand, Bangkok is the highest ranked site for FRAX access with more than 20,000 usage sessions since 2010 (3.6 usage session per 1000 population) followed by Khon Kaen and Chiang Mai. It has been accessed from within 76 out of 77 provinces (98.7%). There was a steady increase in access to FRAX from within Thailand of approximately 1000 usage sessions per year between 2010 and 2016. After the FRAX fracture risk calculation was included in the national guideline for osteoporosis management published in late 2016, the rate of increase in access was four-fold higher compared with the previous period. In world ranking, the USA is the country with the most frequent access to the FRAX tool, whereas Thailand was ranked 35th in the world. There were weak but significant correlations between the absolute number of FRAX sessions and population size (r=0.165, p=0.011) and land area (r=0.375, p<0.001).ConclusionAccess to the FRAX tool website is increasing in Thailand. The incorporation of FRAX into national guidelines, in parallel to the adoption of osteoporosis fracture prevention into national policy, has had a rapid and significant impact on its use.
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  • Dimai, H. P., et al. (författare)
  • Osteoporosis treatment in Austria-assessment of FRAX-based intervention thresholds for high and very high fracture risk
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Archives of Osteoporosis. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1862-3522 .- 1862-3514. ; 17:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • A Summary The adoption of the management pathway proposed by the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group (NOGG), UK applied using the Austrian FRAX (R) tool in a referral population of Austrian women categorises 22-29% of women age 40 years or more eligible for treatment of whom 28-34% are classified at very high risk. Purpose The aim of this study is to provide a reference document for the further development of existing guidelines for the management of osteoporosis in Austria, considering FRAX-based intervention thresholds for high and very high fracture risk. Methods The model development was based on two Austrian hospital referral cohorts. Baseline information was collected to compute the 10-year probability (using the Austrian FRAX model) of a major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) and hip fracture both with and without the inclusion of femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD). Assessment thresholds for BMD testing were defined, as well as intervention thresholds. In addition, thresholds that characterise men and women at high and very high fracture risk were established. The management pathway followed that currently recommended by the UK National Osteoporosis Guideline Group (NOGG). Results The two cohorts comprised a total of 1306 women and men with a mean age of 66.7 years. Slightly more than 50% were eligible for treatment by virtue of a prior fragility fracture. In those women without a prior fracture, 22% (n = 120) were eligible for treatment based on MOF probabilities. Of these, 28% (n = 33) were found to be at very high risk. When both MOF and hip fracture probabilities were used to characterise risk, 164 women without a prior fracture were eligible for treatment (29%). Of these, 34% (n = 56) were found to be at very high risk. Fewer men without prior fracture were eligible for treatment compared with women. Conclusion The management pathway as currently outlined is expected to reduce inequalities in patient management. The characterisation of very high risk may aid in the identification of patients suitable for treatment with osteoanabolic agents.
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7.
  • Forgetta, V., et al. (författare)
  • Development of a polygenic risk score to improve screening for fracture risk: A genetic risk prediction study
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: PLoS medicine. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1549-1277 .- 1549-1676. ; 17:7
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Since screening programs identify only a small proportion of the population as eligible for an intervention, genomic prediction of heritable risk factors could decrease the number needing to be screened by removing individuals at low genetic risk. We therefore tested whether a polygenic risk score for heel quantitative ultrasound speed of sound (SOS)-a heritable risk factor for osteoporotic fracture-can identify low-risk individuals who can safely be excluded from a fracture risk screening program. Methods and findings A polygenic risk score for SOS was trained and selected in 2 separate subsets of UK Biobank (comprising 341,449 and 5,335 individuals). The top-performing prediction model was termed "gSOS", and its utility in fracture risk screening was tested in 5 validation cohorts using the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group clinical guidelines (N= 10,522 eligible participants). All individuals were genome-wide genotyped and had measured fracture risk factors. Across the 5 cohorts, the average age ranged from 57 to 75 years, and 54% of studied individuals were women. The main outcomes were the sensitivity and specificity to correctly identify individuals requiring treatment with and without genetic prescreening. The reference standard was a bone mineral density (BMD)-based Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) score. The secondary outcomes were the proportions of the screened population requiring clinical-risk-factor-based FRAX (CRF-FRAX) screening and BMD-based FRAX (BMD-FRAX) screening. gSOS was strongly correlated with measured SOS (r(2)= 23.2%, 95% CI 22.7% to 23.7%). Without genetic prescreening, guideline recommendations achieved a sensitivity and specificity for correct treatment assignment of 99.6% and 97.1%, respectively, in the validation cohorts. However, 81% of the population required CRF-FRAX tests, and 37% required BMD-FRAX tests to achieve this accuracy. Using gSOS in prescreening and limiting further assessment to those with a low gSOS resulted in small changes to the sensitivity and specificity (93.4% and 98.5%, respectively), but the proportions of individuals requiring CRF-FRAX tests and BMD-FRAX tests were reduced by 37% and 41%, respectively. Study limitations include a reliance on cohorts of predominantly European ethnicity and use of a proxy of fracture risk. Conclusions Our results suggest that the use of a polygenic risk score in fracture risk screening could decrease the number of individuals requiring screening tests, including BMD measurement, while maintaining a high sensitivity and specificity to identify individuals who should be recommended an intervention. Author summaryWhy was this study done? Osteoporosis screening identifies only a small proportion of the screened population to be eligible for intervention. The prediction of heritable risk factors using polygenic risk scores could decrease the number of screened individuals by reassuring those with low genetic risk. We investigated whether the genetic prediction of heel quantitative ultrasound speed of sound (SOS)-a heritable risk factor for osteoporotic fracture-could be incorporated into an established screening guideline to identify individuals at low risk for osteoporosis. What did the researchers do and find? Using UK Biobank, we developed a polygenic risk score (gSOS) consisting of 21,717 genetic variants that was strongly correlated with SOS ( = 23.2%). Using the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group clinical assessment guidelines in 5 validation cohorts, we estimate that reassuring individuals with a high gSOS, rather than doing further assessments, could reduce the number of clinical-risk-factor-based Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) tests and bone-density-measurement-based FRAX tests by 37% and 41%, respectively, while maintaining a high sensitivity and specificity to identify individuals who should be recommended an intervention. What do these findings mean? We show that genetic pre-screening could reduce the number of screening tests needed to identify individuals at risk of osteoporotic fractures. Therefore, the potential exists to improve the efficiency of osteoporosis screening programs without large losses in sensitivity or specificity to identify individuals who should receive an intervention. Further translational studies are needed to test the clinical applications of this polygenic risk score; however, our work shows how such scores could be tested in the clinic.
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  • Gavilanez, E. L., et al. (författare)
  • An assessment of intervention thresholds for high fracture risk in Chile
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Archives of Osteoporosis. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1862-3522 .- 1862-3514. ; 18:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Summary: Assessment and treatment pathways using FRAX-based intervention thresholds in Chile can be used to identify patients at high risk of fracture and avoid unnecessary treatment in those at low fracture risk. Purpose: The aim of the present study was to explore treatment paths and characteristics of women eligible for treatment in Chile based on major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) probabilities derived from FRAX®. Methods: Intervention and assessment thresholds were derived using methods adopted by the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group for FRAX-based guidelines in the UK but based on the epidemiology of fracture and death in Chile. Age-dependent and hybrid assessment and intervention thresholds were applied to 1998 women and 1122 men age 50years or more drawn from participants in the National Health Survey 2016–2017. Results: Approximately 12% of men and women had a prior fragility fracture and would be eligible for treatment for this reason. Using age-dependent thresholds, an additional 2.6% of women (0.3% of men) were eligible for treatment in that MOF probabilities lay above the upper assessment threshold. A BMD test would be recommended in 5% of men and 38% of women. With hybrid thresholds, an additional 13% of women (3.6% of men) were eligible for treatment and BMD recommended in 11% of men and 42% of women. Conclusion: The application of hybrid intervention thresholds ameliorates the disparity in fracture probabilities seen with age-dependent thresholds. Probability-based assessment of fracture risk, including the use of the hybrid intervention thresholds for Chile, is expected to help guide decisions about treatment.
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12.
  • Johansson, H., et al. (författare)
  • FRAX-based fracture probabilities in South Africa
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Archives of Osteoporosis. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1862-3522 .- 1862-3514. ; 16:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The hip fracture rates in South Africa were used to create ethnic-specific FRAX (R) models to facilitate fracture risk assessment.IntroductionThe aim of this study was to develop FRAX models to compute the 10-year probability of hip fracture and major osteoporotic fracture and assess their potential clinical application.MethodsAge- and sex-specific incidence of hip fracture and national mortality rates were incorporated into a FRAX model for the White, Black African, Coloured and Indian population of South Africa. Age-specific 10-year probabilities of a major osteoporotic fracture were calculated in women to determine fracture probabilities at a femoral neck T score of -2.5 SD, or those equivalent to a woman with a prior fragility fracture. Fracture probabilities were compared with those from selected countries.ResultsProbabilities were consistently higher in Indian than in Coloured men and women, in turn, higher than in Black South Africans. For White South Africans, probabilities were lower than in Indians at young ages up to the age of about 80 years. When a BMD T score of -2.5 SD was used as an intervention threshold, FRAX probabilities in women age 50 years were approximately 2-fold higher than in women of the same age but with an average BMD and no risk factors. The increment in risk associated with the BMD threshold decreased progressively with age such that, at the age of 80 years or more, a T score of -2.5 SD was no longer a risk factor. Probabilities equivalent to women with a previous fracture rose with age and identified women at increased risk at all ages.ConclusionsThese FRAX models should enhance accuracy of determining fracture probability amongst the South African population and help guide decisions about treatment.
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13.
  • Johansson, H., et al. (författare)
  • FRAX-based intervention thresholds for Pakistan
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Osteoporosis International. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0937-941X .- 1433-2965. ; 33, s. 105-112
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We compared, for women in Pakistan, the utility of intervention thresholds either at a T-score <= - 2.5 or based on a FRAX probability equivalent to women of average body mass index (BMI) with a prior fragility fracture. Whereas the FRAX-based intervention threshold identified women at high fracture probability, the T-score threshold was less sensitive, and the associated fracture risk decreased markedly with age. Purpose The fracture risk assessment algorithm FRAX (R) has been recently calibrated for Pakistan, but guidance is needed on how to apply fracture probabilities to clinical practice. Methods The age-specific 10-year probabilities of a major osteoporotic fracture were calculated in women with average BMI to determine fracture probabilities at two potential intervention thresholds. The first comprised the age-specific fracture probabilities associated with a femoral neck T-score of - 2.5. The second approach determined age-specific fracture probabilities that were equivalent to a woman with a prior fragility fracture, without bone mineral density (BMD). The parsimonious use of BMD was additionally explored by the computation of upper and lower assessment thresholds for BMD testing. Results When a BMD T-score <= - 2.5 was used as an intervention threshold, FRAX probabilities in women aged 50 years were approximately two-fold higher than in women of the same age but with no risk factors and average BMD. The relative increase in risk associated with the BMD threshold decreased progressively with age such that, at the age of 80 years or more, a T-score of - 2.5 was actually protective. The 10-year probability of a major osteoporotic fracture by age, equivalent to women with a previous fracture, rose with age from 2.1% at the age of 40 years to 17%, at the age of 90 years, and identified women at increased risk at all ages. Conclusion Intervention thresholds based on BMD alone do not effectively target women at high fracture risk, particularly in the elderly. In contrast, intervention thresholds based on fracture probabilities equivalent to a 'fracture threshold' target women at high fracture risk.
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  • Kanis, J. A., et al. (författare)
  • A decade of FRAX: how has it changed the management of osteoporosis?
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Aging Clinical and Experimental Research. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1594-0667 .- 1720-8319. ; 32:2, s. 187-196
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The fracture risk assessment tool, FRAX(R), was released in 2008 and provides country-specific algorithms for estimating individualized 10-year probability of hip and major osteoporotic fracture (hip, clinical spine, distal forearm, and proximal humerus). Since its release, 71 models have been made available for 66 countries covering more than 80% of the world population. The website receives approximately 3 million visits annually. Following independent validation, FRAX has been incorporated into more than 80 guidelines worldwide. The application of FRAX in assessment guidelines has been heterogeneous with the adoption of several different approaches in setting intervention thresholds. Whereas most guidelines adopt a case-finding strategy, the case for FRAX-based community screening in the elderly is increasing. The relationship between FRAX and efficacy of intervention has been explored and is expected to influence treatment guidelines in the future.
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17.
  • Kanis, J A, et al. (författare)
  • A family history of fracture and fracture risk: a meta-analysis.
  • 2004
  • Ingår i: Bone. - : Elsevier BV. - 8756-3282 .- 1873-2763. ; 35:5, s. 1029-37
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The aims of the present study were to determine whether a parental history of any fracture or hip fracture specifically are significant risk factors for future fracture in an international setting, and to explore the effects of age, sex and bone mineral density (BMD) on this risk. We studied 34,928 men and women from seven prospectively studied cohorts followed for 134,374 person-years. The cohorts comprised the EPOS/EVOS study, CaMos, the Rotterdam Study, DOES and cohorts at Sheffield, Rochester and Gothenburg. The effect of family history of osteoporotic fracture or of hip fracture in first-degree relatives, BMD and age on all clinical fracture, osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture risk alone was examined using Poisson regression in each cohort and for each sex. The results of the different studies were merged from the weighted beta coefficients. A parental history of fracture was associated with a modest but significantly increased risk of any fracture, osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture in men and women combined. The risk ratio (RR) for any fracture was 1.17 (95% CI=1.07-1.28), for any osteoporotic fracture was 1.18 (95% CI=1.06-1.31), and for hip fracture was 1.49 (95% CI=1.17-1.89). The risk ratio was higher at younger ages but not significantly so. No significant difference in risk was seen between men and women with a parental history for any fracture (RR=1.17 and 1.17, respectively) or for an osteoporotic fracture (RR=1.17 and 1.18, respectively). For hip fracture, the risk ratios were somewhat higher, but not significantly higher, in men than in women (RR=2.02 and 1.38, respectively). A family history of hip fracture in parents was associated with a significant risk both of all osteoporotic fracture (RR 1.54; 95CI=1.25-1.88) and of hip fracture (RR=2.27; 95% CI=1.47-3.49). The risk was not significantly changed when BMD was added to the model. We conclude that a parental history of fracture (particularly a family history of hip fracture) confers an increased risk of fracture that is independent of BMD. Its identification on an international basis supports the use of this risk factor in case-finding strategies.
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18.
  • Kanis, J A, et al. (författare)
  • A meta-analysis of previous fracture and subsequent fracture risk.
  • 2004
  • Ingår i: Bone. - : Elsevier BV. - 8756-3282 .- 1873-2763. ; 35:2, s. 375-82
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Previous fracture is a well-documented risk factor for future fracture. The aim of this study was to quantify this risk on an international basis and to explore the relationship of this risk with age, sex, and bone mineral density (BMD). We studied 15259 men and 44902 women from 11 cohorts comprising EVOS/EPOS, OFELY, CaMos, Rochester, Sheffield, Rotterdam, Kuopio, DOES, Hiroshima, and two cohorts from Gothenburg. Cohorts were followed for a total of 250000 person-years. The effect of a prior history of fracture on the risk of any fracture, any osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture alone was examined using a Poisson model for each sex from each cohort. Covariates examined were age, sex, and BMD. The results of the different studies were merged by using the weighted beta-coefficients. A previous fracture history was associated with a significantly increased risk of any fracture compared with individuals without a prior fracture (RR = 1.86; 95% CI = 1.75-1.98). The risk ratio was similar for the outcome of osteoporotic fracture or for hip fracture. There was no significant difference in risk ratio between men and women. Risk ratio (RR) was marginally downward adjusted when account was taken of BMD. Low BMD explained a minority of the risk for any fracture (8%) and for hip fracture (22%). The risk ratio was stable with age except in the case of hip fracture outcome where the risk ratio decreased significantly with age. We conclude that previous history of fracture confers an increased risk of fracture of substantial importance beyond that explained by measurement of BMD. Its validation on an international basis permits the use of this risk factor in case finding strategies.
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  • Kanis, J A, et al. (författare)
  • A systematic review of hip fracture incidence and probability of fracture worldwide.
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: Osteoporosis International. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0937-941X .- 1433-2965. ; 23:9, s. 2239-56
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The country-specific risk of hip fracture and the 10-year probability of a major osteoporotic fracture were determined on a worldwide basis from a systematic review of literature. There was a greater than 10-fold variation in hip fracture risk and fracture probability between countries.
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21.
  • Kanis, J. A., et al. (författare)
  • Adjusting conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability according to the number of prior falls in the preceding year
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Osteoporosis International. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0937-941X .- 1433-2965. ; 34:3, s. 479-487
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • A Summary A greater propensity to falling is associated with higher fracture risk. This study provides adjustments to FRAX-based fracture probabilities accounting for the number of prior falls. Introduction Prior falls increase subsequent fracture risk but are not currently directly included in the FRAX tool. The aim of this study was to quantify the effect of the number of prior falls on the 10-year probability of fracture determined with FRAX (R). Methods We studied 21,116 women and men age 40 years or older (mean age 65.7 +/- 10.1 years) with fracture probability assessment (FRAX (R)), self-reported falls for the previous year, and subsequent fracture outcomes in a registry-based cohort. The risks of death, hip fracture, and non-hip major osteoporotic fracture (MOF-NH) were determined by Cox proportional hazards regression for fall number category versus the whole population (i.e., an average number of falls). Ten-year probabilities of hip fracture and major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) were determined according to the number of falls from the hazards of death and fracture incorporated into the FRAX model for the UK. The probability ratios (number of falls vs. average number of falls) provided adjustments to conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability according to the number of falls. Results Compared with the average number of falls, the hazard ratios for hip fracture, MOF-NH and death were lower than unity in the absence of a fall history. Hazard ratios increased progressively with an increasing number of reported falls. The probability ratio rose progressively as the number of reported falls increased. Probability ratios decreased with age, an effect that was more marked the greater the number of prior falls. Conclusion The probability ratios provide adjustments to conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability according to the number of prior falls.
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22.
  • Kanis, J. A., et al. (författare)
  • Adjusting conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability according to the number of prior fractures
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Osteoporosis International. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0937-941X .- 1433-2965. ; 33:12, s. 2507-2515
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The risk of a recurrent fragility fracture is high following a first fracture and higher still with more than one prior fracture. This study provides adjustments to FRAX-based fracture probabilities accounting for the number of prior fractures. Introduction Prior fractures increase subsequent fracture risk. The aim of this study was to quantify the effect of the number of prior fractures on the 10-year probability of fracture determined with FRAX (R). Methods The study used data from the Reykjavik Study fracture register that documented prospectively all fractures at all skeletal sites in a large sample of the population of Iceland. Ten-year probabilities of hip fracture and major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) were determined according to the number of prior osteoporotic fractures over a 20-year interval from the hazards of death and fracture. Fracture probabilities were also computed for a prior osteoporotic fracture irrespective of the number of previous fractures. The probability ratios provided adjustments to conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability according to the number of prior fractures. Results Probability ratios to adjust 10-year FRAX probabilities of a hip fracture and MOF increased with the number of prior fractures but decreased with age in both men and women. Probability ratios were similar in men and women and for hip fracture and MOF. Mean probability ratios according to the number of prior fractures for all scenarios were 0.95, 1.08, 1.21 and 1.35, for 1,2, 3 and 4 or more prior fractures, respectively. Thus, a simple rule of thumb is to downward adjust FRAX-based fracture probabilities by 5% in the presence of a single prior fracture and to uplift probabilities by 10, 20 and 30% with a history of 2, 3 and 4 or more prior fractures, respectively. Conclusion The probability ratios provide adjustments to conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability according to the number of prior fractures.
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  • Kanis, J. A., et al. (författare)
  • Adjusting conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability according to the recency of sentinel fractures
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Osteoporosis International. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0937-941X .- 1433-2965. ; 31, s. 1817-1828
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The risk of a recurrent fragility fracture is particularly high immediately following the fracture. This study provides adjustments to FRAX-based fracture probabilities accounting for the site of a recent fracture. Introduction The recency of prior fractures affects subsequent fracture risk. The aim of this study was to quantify the effect of a recent sentinel fracture, by site, on the 10-year probability of fracture determined with FRAX. Methods The study used data from the Reykjavik Study fracture register that documented prospectively all fractures at all skeletal sites in a large sample of the population of Iceland. Fracture probabilities were determined after a sentinel fracture (humeral, clinical vertebral, forearm and hip fracture) from the hazards of death and fracture. Fracture probabilities were computed on the one hand for sentinel fractures occurring within the previous 2 years and on the other hand, probabilities for a prior osteoporotic fracture irrespective of recency. The probability ratios provided adjustments to conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability for recent sentinel fractures. Results Probability ratios to adjust 10-year FRAX probabilities of a major osteoporotic fracture for recent sentinel fractures were age dependent, decreasing with age in both men and women. Probability ratios varied according to the site of sentinel fracture with higher ratios for hip and vertebral fracture than for humerus or forearm fracture. Probability ratios to adjust 10-year FRAX probabilities of a hip fracture for recent sentinel fractures were also age dependent, decreasing with age in both men and women with the exception of forearm fractures. Conclusion The probability ratios provide adjustments to conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability for recent sentinel fractures.
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24.
  • Kanis, J. A., et al. (författare)
  • An assessment of intervention thresholds for very high fracture risk applied to the NOGG guidelines A report for the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group (NOGG)
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Osteoporosis International. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0937-941X .- 1433-2965. ; 32:10, s. 1951-1960
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The National Osteoporosis Guideline Group (NOGG) has developed intervention thresholds based on FRAX (R) to characterise patients at high and very high risk of fracture. Introduction Guidelines for the assessment of fracture risk have begun to categorise patients eligible for treatment into high and very high risk of fracture to inform choice of therapeutic approach. The aim of the present study was to develop intervention thresholds based on the hybrid assessment model of NOGG. Methods We examined the impact of intervention thresholds in a simulated cross-sectional cohort of women age 50 years or more from the UK with the distribution of baseline characteristics based on that in the FRAX cohorts. The prevalence of very high risk using the hybrid model was compared with age-dependent thresholds used by the International Osteoporosis Foundation and the European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis and Osteoarthritis (IOF/ESCEO). The appropriateness of thresholds was tested based on the populations treated with anabolic agents. Results With an upper intervention threshold using the IOF/ESCEO criteria, 56% of women age 50 years or more would be characterised at very high risk. This compares with 36% using the IOF/ESCEO criteria and an age-specific intervention threshold over all ages. With an upper intervention threshold of 1.6 times the pre-existing intervention threshold, 10% of women age 50 years or more would be characterised at very high risk. The data from phase 3 studies indicate that most trial participants exposed to romosozumab or teriparatide would fall into the very high-risk category. Conclusions Proposals for FRAX-based criteria for very high risk for the NOGG hybrid model categorise a small proportion of women age 50 years or more (10%) in this highest risk stratum. The level of risk identified was comparable to that of women enrolled in trials of anabolic agents.
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25.
  • Kanis, J A, et al. (författare)
  • Case finding for the management of osteoporosis with FRAX--assessment and intervention thresholds for the UK.
  • 2008
  • Ingår i: Osteoporosis international. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1433-2965 .- 0937-941X. ; 19:10, s. 1395-408
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • SUMMARY: Assessment and intervention thresholds are developed and proposed in men aged over 50 years and postmenopausal women for the UK based on fracture probability from the WHO fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX). INTRODUCTION: The FRAX tool has recently become available to compute the 10-year probability of fractures in men and women from clinical risk factors (CRFs) with or without the measurement of femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD). The aim of this study was to develop a case-finding strategy for men and women from the UK at high risk of osteoporotic fracture by delineating the fracture probabilities at which BMD testing or intervention should be recommended. METHODS: Fracture probabilities were computed using the FRAX tool calibrated to the epidemiology of fracture and death in the UK. The relationship between cost effectiveness and fracture probability used the source data from a prior publication that examined the cost effectiveness of generic alendronate in the UK. An intervention threshold was set by age in men and women, based on the fracture probability equivalent to that of women with a history of a prior osteoporosis related fracture. In addition, assessment thresholds for the use of BMD testing were explored. Assessment thresholds for the measurement of BMD followed current practice guidelines where individuals were considered to be eligible for assessment in the presence of one or more CRF. An upper assessment threshold (i.e. a fracture probability above which patients could be treated without recourse to BMD) was based on optimisation of the positive predictive value of the assessment tool. The consequences of assessment and intervention thresholds on the requirement for BMD test and interventions were assessed using the distribution of clinical risk factors and femoral neck BMD for women in the source cohorts used for the development of the FRAX models RESULTS: Treatment was cost effective at all ages when the 10-year probability of a major fracture exceeded 7%. The intervention threshold at the age of 50 years corresponded to a 10-year probability of a major osteoporotic fracture of 7.5%. This rose progressively with age to 30% at the age of 80 years, so that intervention was cost effective at all ages. Assessment thresholds for testing with BMD (6-9% at the age of 50 years) also rose with age (18-36% at the age of 80 years). The use of these thresholds in a case-finding strategy would identify 6-20% of women as eligible for BMD testing and 23-46% as eligible for treatment, depending on age. The same threshold can be used in men. CONCLUSION: The study provides a method of developing management algorithms for osteoporosis from the estimation of fracture probabilities, rather than those based on BMD alone or BMD with single or multiple CRFs.
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26.
  • Kanis, J. A., et al. (författare)
  • Combining fracture outcomes in phase 3 trials of osteoporosis: an analysis of the effects of denosumab in postmenopausal women
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Osteoporosis International. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0937-941X .- 1433-2965. ; 32:1, s. 165-171
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • This paper explores use of metrics that combine fracture outcomes that add power to phase 3 studies and provide a surrogate outcome for regulatory agencies. Introduction The aim of this study was to develop an analytic framework that would combine information from all fracture outcomes (including radiographic vertebral fractures) in phase 3 studies to provide a metric for the assessment of treatment efficacy. Methods Data from the phase 3 study of denosumab were used as an exemplar comparing the effects of active intervention with placebo on the risk of all fractures associated with osteoporosis. Fracture outcomes were assigned utility weights drawn from the published literature and applied to age-specific health state values of the general population. For each fracture outcome in each arm of the study, cumulative disutility was computed to serve as the principal end point. The hypothesis tested was that treatment with denosumab results in a significant reduction in mean fracture-related disutility. Results Treatment with denosumab was associated with significantly lower utility loss compared with placebo. For patients treated with denosumab, mean utility loss was 42% less than with placebo (4.5 vs. 7.5 QALYs/1000 patient years, respectively, p < 0.001). Conclusions Denosumab significantly decreased utility loss. The use of metrics that combine fracture outcomes may provide added power to phase 3 studies and provide a surrogate outcome for regulatory agencies.
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27.
  • Kanis, J. A., et al. (författare)
  • FRAX and fracture prediction without bone mineral density
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Climacteric. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1369-7137 .- 1473-0804. ; 18:Suppl. 2, s. 2-9
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The major application of FRAX in osteoporosis is to direct pharmacological interventions to those at high risk of fracture. Whereas the efficacy of osteoporosis treatment, with the possible exception of alendronate, is largely independent of baseline bone mineral density (BMD), it remains a widely held perception that osteoporosis therapies are only effective in the presence of low BMD. Thus, the use of FRAX in the absence of BMD to identify individuals requiring therapy remains the subject of some debate and is the focus of this review. The clinical risk factors used in FRAX have high evidence-based validity to identify a risk responsive to intervention. The selection of high-risk individuals with FRAX, without knowledge of BMD, preferentially selects for low BMD and thus identifies a risk that is responsive to pharmacological intervention. The prediction of fractures with the use of clinical risk factors alone in FRAX is comparable to the use of BMD alone to predict fractures and is suitable, therefore, in the many countries where facilities for BMD testing are sparse. In countries where access to BMD is greater, FRAX can be used without BMD in the majority of cases and BMD tests reserved for those close to a probability-based intervention threshold. Thus concerns surrounding the use of FRAX in clinical practice without information on BMD are largely misplaced. © 2015 International Menopause Society.
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28.
  • Kanis, J. A., et al. (författare)
  • FRAX Update
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Journal of Clinical Densitometry. - : Elsevier BV. - 1094-6950. ; 20:3, s. 360-367
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The fracture risk assessment tool, FRAX, was released in 2008 and provides country-specific algorithms for estimating individualized 10-year probability of hip and major osteoporotic fracture (hip, clinical spine, distal forearm, and proximal humerus). Since its release, models are now available for 63 countries, covering 79% of the world population. The website receives approximately 3 million visits annually. Following independent validation, FRAX has been incorporated into more than 80 guidelines worldwide. However, the application of FRAX in guidelines has been heterogeneous with the adoption of several different approaches to setting intervention thresholds. The relationship between FRAX and efficacy of intervention has been explored and is expected to influence treatment guidelines in the future. A more unified approach to setting intervention thresholds with FRAX is a research priority.
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29.
  • Kanis, J A, et al. (författare)
  • How to decide who to treat
  • 2009
  • Ingår i: Best practice & research. Clinical rheumatology. - : Elsevier BV. - 1532-1770 .- 1521-6942. ; 23:6, s. 711-26
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Fractures are the clinical consequence of osteoporosis and are a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Although treatments are available that have been shown to decrease the risk of fracture, problems arise in identifying individuals at high risk of fracture so that intervention can be effectively targeted. Practice guidelines, available in many countries, differ markedly in approach, but generally recommend treatments on the basis of a previous fragility fracture and a defined threshold for bone mineral density (BMD). Recent developments in fracture risk assessment include the availability of the FRAX tool by the World Health Organization (WHO) Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases at Sheffield, UK, that integrates the weight of clinical risk factors for fracture risk with or without information on BMD and computes the 10-year probability of fracture. The tool increases sensitivity without trading specificity and is now being used in the re-appraisal of clinical guidelines.
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30.
  • Kanis, J. A., et al. (författare)
  • Overview of Fracture Prediction Tools
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Journal of Clinical Densitometry. - : Elsevier BV. - 1094-6950. ; 20:3, s. 444-450
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The characterization of risk factors for fracture that contribute significantly to fracture risk, over and above that provided by the bone mineral density, has stimulated the development of risk assessment tools. The more adequately evaluated tools, all available online, include the FRAX (R) tool, the Garvan fracture risk calculator and, in the United Kingdom only, QFracture (R). Differences in the input variables, output, and model construct give rise to marked differences in the computed risks from each calculator. Reasons for the differences include the derivation of fracture probability (FRAX) rather than incidence (Garvan and QFracture), limited calibration (Garvan), and inappropriate source information (QFracture). These differences need to be taken into account in the evaluation of assessment guidelines.
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31.
  • Kanis, J A, et al. (författare)
  • Previous fracture and subsequent fracture risk: a meta-analysis to update FRAX.
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA. - : Springer Nature. - 1433-2965 .- 0937-941X. ; 34:12, s. 2027-2045
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • A large international meta-analysis using primary data from 64 cohorts has quantified the increased risk of fracture associated with a previous history of fracture for future use in FRAX.The aim of this study was to quantify the fracture risk associated with a prior fracture on an international basis and to explore the relationship of this risk with age, sex, time since baseline and bone mineral density (BMD).We studied 665,971 men and 1,438,535 women from 64 cohorts in 32 countries followed for a total of 19.5 million person-years. The effect of a prior history of fracture on the risk of any clinical fracture, any osteoporotic fracture, major osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture alone was examined using an extended Poisson model in each cohort. Covariates examined were age, sex, BMD, and duration of follow-up. The results of the different studies were merged by using the weighted β-coefficients.A previous fracture history, compared with individuals without a prior fracture, was associated with a significantly increased risk of any clinical fracture (hazard ratio, HR = 1.88; 95% CI = 1.72-2.07). The risk ratio was similar for the outcome of osteoporotic fracture (HR = 1.87; 95% CI = 1.69-2.07), major osteoporotic fracture (HR = 1.83; 95% CI = 1.63-2.06), or for hip fracture (HR = 1.82; 95% CI = 1.62-2.06). There was no significant difference in risk ratio between men and women. Subsequent fracture risk was marginally downward adjusted when account was taken of BMD. Low BMD explained a minority of the risk for any clinical fracture (14%), osteoporotic fracture (17%), and for hip fracture (33%). The risk ratio for all fracture outcomes related to prior fracture decreased significantly with adjustment for age and time since baseline examination.A previous history of fracture confers an increased risk of fracture of substantial importance beyond that explained by BMD. The effect is similar in men and women. Its quantitation on an international basis permits the more accurate use of this risk factor in case finding strategies.
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32.
  • Kanis, J. A., et al. (författare)
  • Primary hyperparathyroidism and fracture probability
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Osteoporosis International. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0937-941X .- 1433-2965. ; 34, s. 489-499
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The incidence of hip and major osteoporotic fracture was increased in patients with primary hyperparathyroidism even in patients not referred for parathyroidectomy. The risk of death was also increased which attenuated an effect on fracture probabilities. The findings argue for widening the indications for parathyroidectomy in mild primary hyperparathyroidism.Introduction Primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT) is associated with an increase in the risk of fracture. In FRAX, the increase in risk is assumed to be mediated by low bone mineral density (BMD). However, the risk of death is also increased and its effect on fracture probability is not known.Objective The aim of this study was to determine whether PHPT affects hip fracture and major osteoporotic fracture risk independently of bone mineral density (BMD) and whether this and any increase in mortality affects the assessment of fracture probability.Methods A register-based survey of patients with PHPT and matched controls in Denmark were identified from hospital registers. The incidence of death, hip fracture, and major osteoporotic fracture were determined for computing fracture probabilities excluding time after parathyroidectomy. The gradient of risk for fracture for differences in BMD was determined in a subset of patients and in BMD controls. The severity of disease was based on serum calcium and parathyroid hormone levels.Results We identified 6884 patients with biochemically confirmed PHPT and 68,665 matched population controls. On follow-up, excluding time after parathyroidectomy in those undergoing surgery, patients with PHPT had a higher risk of death (+52%), hip fracture (+48%), and major osteoporotic fracture (+36%) than population controls. At any given age, average 10-year probabilities of fracture were higher in patients with PHPT than population controls. The gradient of fracture risk with differences in BMD was similar in cases and controls. Results were similar when confined to patients not undergoing parathyroidectomy. Fracture probability decreased with the severity of disease due to an increase in mortality rather than fracture risk.Conclusion The risk of hip and other major osteoporotic fracture is increased in PHPT irrespective of the disease severity. Fracture probability was attenuated due to the competing effect of mortality. The increased fracture risk in patients treated conservatively argues for widening the indications for parathyroidectomy in mild PHPT.
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33.
  • Kanis, J. A., et al. (författare)
  • SCOPE 2021: a new scorecard for osteoporosis in Europe
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Archives of Osteoporosis. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1862-3522 .- 1862-3514. ; 16:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Summary: This scorecard summarises key indicators of the burden of osteoporosis and its management in the 27 member states of the European Union, as well as the UK and Switzerland. The resulting scorecard elements, assembled on a single sheet, provide a unique overview of osteoporosis in Europe. Introduction: The scorecard for osteoporosis in Europe (SCOPE) is a project of the International Osteoporosis Foundation (IOF) that seeks to raise awareness of osteoporosis care in Europe. The aim of this project was to develop a scorecard and background documents to draw attention to gaps and inequalities in the provision of primary and secondary prevention of fractures due to osteoporosis. Methods: The SCOPE panel reviewed the information available on osteoporosis and the resulting fractures for each of the 27 countries of the European Union plus the UK and Switzerland (termed EU27+2). The information obtained covered four domains: background information (e.g. the burden of osteoporosis and fractures), policy framework, service provision and service uptake, e.g. the proportion of men and women at high risk that do not receive treatment (the treatment gap). Results: There was a marked difference in fracture risk among the EU27+2 countries. Of concern was the marked heterogeneity in the policy framework, service provision and service uptake for osteoporotic fracture that bore little relation to the fracture burden. For example, despite the wide availability of treatments to prevent fractures, in the majority of the EU27+2, only a minority of patients at high risk receive treatment even after their first fracture. The elements of each domain in each country were scored and coded using a traffic light system (red, orange, green) and used to synthesise a scorecard. The resulting scorecard elements, assembled on a single sheet, provide a unique overview of osteoporosis in Europe. Conclusions: The scorecard enables healthcare professionals and policy makers to assess their country’s general approach to the disease and provide indicators to inform the future provision of healthcare. © 2021, The Author(s).
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34.
  • Kanis, J A, et al. (författare)
  • Smoking and fracture risk: a meta-analysis.
  • 2005
  • Ingår i: Osteoporosis international. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0937-941X .- 1433-2965. ; 16:2, s. 155-62
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Smoking is widely considered a risk factor for future fracture. The aim of this study was to quantify this risk on an international basis and to explore the relationship of this risk with age, sex and bone mineral density (BMD). We studied 59,232 men and women (74% female) from ten prospective cohorts comprising EVOS/EPOS, DOES, CaMos, Rochester, Sheffield, Rotterdam, Kuopio, Hiroshima and two cohorts from Gothenburg. Cohorts were followed for a total of 250,000 person-years. The effect of current or past smoking, on the risk of any fracture, any osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture alone was examined using a Poisson model for each sex from each cohort. Covariates examined were age, sex and BMD. The results of the different studies were merged using the weighted beta-coefficients. Current smoking was associated with a significantly increased risk of any fracture compared to non-smokers (RR=1.25; 95% Confidence Interval (CI)=1.15-1.36). Risk ratio (RR) was adjusted marginally downward when account was taken of BMD, but it remained significantly increased (RR=1.13). For an osteoporotic fracture, the risk was marginally higher (RR=1.29; 95% CI=1.13-1.28). The highest risk was observed for hip fracture (RR=1.84; 95% CI=1.52-2.22), but this was also somewhat lower after adjustment for BMD (RR=1.60; 95% CI=1.27-2.02). Risk ratios were significantly higher in men than in women for all fractures and for osteoporotic fractures, but not for hip fracture. Low BMD accounted for only 23% of the smoking-related risk of hip fracture. Adjustment for body mass index had a small downward effect on risk for all fracture outcomes. For osteoporotic fracture, the risk ratio increased with age, but decreased with age for hip fracture. A smoking history was associated with a significantly increased risk of fracture compared with individuals with no smoking history, but the risk ratios were lower than for current smoking. We conclude that a history of smoking results in fracture risk that is substantially greater than that explained by measurement of BMD. Its validation on an international basis permits the use of this risk factor in case finding strategies.
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35.
  • Kanis, J. A., et al. (författare)
  • The effect on subsequent fracture risk of age, sex, and prior fracture site by recency of prior fracture
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Osteoporosis International. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0937-941X .- 1433-2965. ; 32:8, s. 1547-1555
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The risk of a recurrent fragility fracture varies by age and sex, as by site and recency of sentinel fracture. Introduction The recency of prior fractures affects subsequent fracture risk. Variable recency may obscure other factors that affect subsequent fracture risk. The aim of this study was to quantify the effect of a sentinel fracture by site, age, and sex where the recency was held constant. Methods The study used data from the Reykjavik Study fracture register that documented prospectively all fractures at all skeletal sites in a large sample of the population of Iceland. Fracture incidence was compared to that of the general population determined at fixed times after a sentinel fracture (humeral, clinical vertebral, forearm, hip, and minor fractures). Outcome fractures comprised a major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture. Results Sentinel osteoporotic fractures were identified in 9504 men and women. Of these, 3616 individuals sustained a major osteoporotic fracture as the first subsequent fracture, of whom 1799 sustained a hip fracture. Hazard ratios for prior fracture were consistently higher in men than in women and decreased progressively with age. Hazard ratios varied according to the site of sentinel fracture with higher ratios for hip and vertebral fracture than for humerus, forearm, or minor osteoporotic fracture. Conclusion The risk of a recurrent fragility fracture varies by age, sex, and site of sentinel fracture when recency is held constant.
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36.
  • Kanis, J A, et al. (författare)
  • The effects of a FRAX revision for the USA.
  • 2010
  • Ingår i: Osteoporosis International. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0937-941X .- 1433-2965. ; 21:1, s. 35-40
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • A revision (version 3.0) of the fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) is developed based on an update of epidemiological information for the USA. With the revised tool, there were strong correlations (r > 0.99) between versions 2.0 and 3.0 for FRAX estimates of fracture probability, but the revised models gave lower probability estimates. INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to determine the effects of a revision of the epidemiological data used to compute fracture probabilities in the USA with FRAX. METHODS: Models were constructed to compute fracture probabilities based on updated fracture incidence and mortality rates in the USA. The models comprised the ten-year probability of hip fracture and the ten-year probability of a major osteoporotic fracture, both including femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD). For each model, fracture and death hazards were computed as continuous functions. The effect of the revised rates on fracture probability was examined by piecewise linear regression using multiple combinations of clinical risk factors and BMD. RESULTS: At all ages, there was a strong correlation (r > 0.99) between version 2.0 and revised FRAX estimates of fracture probability. For a major osteoporotic fracture, the revised model gave lower median probabilities by 13% to 24% in men, depending on age, and by 19% to 24% in women. For hip fracture probability, the revised model gave lower median fracture probabilities by 40% and 27% at the ages of 50 and 60 years in men and by 43% and 30%, respectively, in women. At the ages of 70 years and older the revised model gave similar hip fracture probabilities as version 2.0 in both men and women. CONCLUSION: The revised FRAX model for the USA (version 3.0) does not alter the ranking of fracture probabilities but provides lower probability estimates than version 2.0, particularly, in younger women and men.
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37.
  • Kanis, J. A., et al. (författare)
  • The use of 2-, 5-, and 10-year probabilities to characterize fracture risk after a recent sentinel fracture
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Osteoporosis International. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0937-941X .- 1433-2965. ; 32, s. 47-54
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The increase in fracture risk associated with a recent fragility fracture is more appropriately captured using a 10-year fracture probability than 2- or 5-year probabilities. Introduction The recency of prior fractures affects subsequent fracture risk. The aim of this study was to quantify the effect of a recent sentinel fracture, by site, on the 2-, 5-, and 10-year probability of fracture. Methods The study used data from the Reykjavik Study fracture register that documented prospectively all fractures at all skeletal sites in a large sample of the population of Iceland. Fracture probabilities were determined after a sentinel fracture (humeral, clinical vertebral, forearm and hip fracture) occurring within the previous 2 years and probabilities for a prior osteoporotic fracture irrespective of recency. The probability ratios were used to adjust fracture probabilities over a 2-, 5-, and 10-year time horizon. Results As expected, probabilities decreased with decreasing time horizon. Probability ratios varied according to age and the site of sentinel fracture. Probability ratios to adjust for a prior fracture within the previous 2 years were higher the shorter the time horizon, but the absolute increases in fracture probabilities were much reduced. Thus, fracture probabilities were substantially lower with time horizons less than 10 years. Conclusion The 10-year probability of fractures is the appropriate metric to capture the impact of the recency of sentinel fractures. The probability ratios provide adjustments to conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability for recent sentinel fractures, adjustments which can readily inform clinical decision-making.
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38.
  • Kanis, J. A., et al. (författare)
  • Use of age-dependent FRAX-based intervention thresholds for Singapore
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Archives of Osteoporosis. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1862-3522 .- 1862-3514. ; 15:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The Summary Assessment and treatment pathways based on age-specific intervention thresholds in Singapore using FRAX paths can be used to identify patients at high risk of fracture and avoid unnecessary treatment in those at low risk. Purpose Intervention thresholds for the treatment of osteoporosis have been based historically on the measurement of bone mineral density. The development of FRAX (R) has permitted a more accurate assessment of fracture risk. The aim of the present study was to explore treatment paths and characteristics of women selected for treatment in Singapore based on FRAX. Methods The approach to the setting of intervention and assessment thresholds used the methodology adopted by the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group for FRAX-based guidelines in the UK but based on the epidemiology of fracture and death in Singapore. The methodology was applied to women age 50 years or more drawn from the population-based Singapore Chinese Health Study (SCHS) cohort. Missing data for the calculation of FRAX was simulated using data from Chinese cohorts from Hong Kong. Results Intervention thresholds expressed as a 10-year probability of a major osteoporotic fracture ranged from 2.9% at the age of 50 years increasing to 32% at the age of 90 years. A total of 1927 of 29,323 women (7%) had a prior fragility fracture and would be eligible for treatment for this reason. An additional 3019 women (10.3%) would be eligible for treatment on the basis of age-dependent thresholds. The mean BMD T-score of women so selected was -2.94. Conclusion Probability-based assessment of fracture risk using age-specific intervention thresholds was developed for Singapore to help guide decisions about treatment.
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39.
  • Kayan, K, et al. (författare)
  • Can fall risk be incorporated into fracture risk assessment algorithms: a pilot study of responsiveness to clodronate
  • 2009
  • Ingår i: Osteoporosis International. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0937-941X .- 1433-2965.
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Fall risk does not significantly impact on the efficacy of the bisphosphonate clodronate in reducing the incidence of fracture. INTRODUCTION: The debate about the efficacy of skeletal therapies on fracture risk in women at increased risk of falling continues. We determined whether fall risk impeded the efficacy of clodronate to reduce osteoporotic fracture incidence. METHODS: This is a post hoc analysis of a 3-year placebo-controlled study of bisphosphonate clodronate involving 5,212 women aged 75 years or more. At entry, self-reported multiple falls in the previous month and ability to rise from a chair were documented. Their interaction with treatment efficacy was examined using Poisson regression. RESULTS: Oral doses of clodronate at 800 mg daily reduced osteoporotic fracture incidence by 24% (hazard ration (HR) 0.76, 95% confidence interval 0.63-0.93). The efficacy was similar in women with recent multiple falls compared to those without (HR 0.61 vs. 0.77, p value for interaction >0.30) or impaired ability in rising compared to those with no impairment (HR 0.79 vs. 0.74, respectively; p value > 0.30). CONCLUSION: Fall risk does not significantly impact on the anti-fracture efficacy of clodronate. If confirmed with other agents, fall risk may be incorporated into risk assessment tools designed to target skeletal therapies.
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40.
  • Leslie, W. D., et al. (författare)
  • FRAX Adjustment by Trabecular Bone Score with or Without Bone Mineral Density: The Manitoba BMD Registry
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Journal of Clinical Densitometry. - 1094-6950. ; 26:3
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Trabecular bone score (TBS), a texture measure derived from spine dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images, is a FRAX & REG;-independent risk factor for fracture. The TBS adjustment to FRAX assumes the presence of femoral neck BMD in the calculation. However, there are many individuals in whom hip DXA cannot be acquired. Whether the TBS-adjustment would apply to FRAX probabilities calculated without BMD has not been studied. The current analysis was performed to evaluate major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) and hip fracture risk adjusted for FRAX with and without femoral neck BMD. The study cohort consisted of 71,209 individuals (89.8% female, mean age 64.0 years). During mean follow-up 8.7 years, 6743 (9.5%) individuals sustained one or more incident MOF, of which 2037 (2.9%) sustained a hip fracture. Lower TBS was significantly associated with increased fracture risk when adjusted for FRAX probabilities, with a slightly larger effect when BMD was not included. Inclusion of TBS in the risk calculation gave a small but significant increase in stratification for fracture probabilities estimated with and without BMD. Calibration plots showed very minor deviations from the line of identity, indicating overall good calibration. In conclusion, the existing equations for incorporating TBS in FRAX estimates of fracture probability work similarly when femoral neck BMD is not used in the calculation. This potentially extends the range of situations where TBS can be used clinically to those individuals in whom lumbar spine TBS is available but femoral neck BMD is not available.
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41.
  • Lorentzon, Mattias, 1970, et al. (författare)
  • Menopausal hormone therapy reduces the risk of fracture regardless of falls risk or baseline FRAX probability - results from the Women's Health Initiative hormone therapy trials
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Osteoporosis International. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0937-941X .- 1433-2965. ; 33, s. 2297-2305
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • In a combined analysis of 25,389 postmenopausal women aged 50-79 years, enrolled in the two Women's Health Initiative hormone therapy trials, menopausal hormone therapy vs. placebo reduced the risk of fracture regardless of baseline FRAX fracture probability and falls history. Introduction The aim of this study was to determine if the anti-fracture efficacy of menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) differed by baseline falls history or fracture risk probability as estimated by FRAX, in a combined analysis of the two Women's Health Initiative (WHI) hormone therapy trials. Methods A total of 25,389 postmenopausal women aged 50-79 years were randomized to receive MHT (n = 12,739) or matching placebo (n = 12,650). At baseline, questionnaires were used to collect information on falls history, within the last 12 months, and clinical risk factors. FRAX 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) was calculated without BMD. Incident clinical fractures were verified using medical records. An extension of Poisson regression was used to investigate the relationship between treatment and fractures in (1) the whole cohort; (2) those with prior falls; and (3) those without prior falls. The effect of baseline FRAX probability on efficacy was investigated in the whole cohort. Results Over 4.3 +/- 2.1 years (mean +/- SD), MHT (vs. placebo) significantly reduced the risk of any clinical fracture (hazard ratio [HR] 0.72 [95% CI, 0.65-0.78]), MOF (HR 0.60 [95% CI, 0.53-0.69]), and hip fracture (0.66 [95% CI, 0.45-0.96]). Treatment was effective in reducing the risk of any clinical fracture, MOF, and hip fracture in women regardless of baseline FRAX MOF probability, with no evidence of an interaction between MHT and FRAX (p > 0.30). Similarly, there was no interaction (p > 0.30) between MHT and prior falls. Conclusion In the combined WHI trials, compared to placebo, MHT reduces fracture risk regardless of FRAX probability and falls history in postmenopausal women.
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42.
  • Lorentzon, Mattias, 1970, et al. (författare)
  • Osteoporosis and fractures in women: the burden of disease
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Climacteric. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1369-7137 .- 1473-0804. ; 25:1, s. 4-10
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Osteoporosis is a disease characterized by impaired bone microarchitecture and reduced bone mineral density (BMD) resulting in bone fragility and increased risk of fracture. In western societies, one in three women and one in five men will sustain an osteoporotic fracture in their remaining lifetime from the age of 50 years. Fragility fractures, especially of the spine and hip, commonly give rise to increased morbidity and mortality. In the five largest European countries and Sweden, fragility fractures were the cause of 2.6 million disability-adjusted life years in 2016 and the fracture-related costs increased from euro29.6 billion in 2010 to euro37.5 billion in 2017. In the European Union and the USA, only a small proportion of women eligible for pharmacological treatment are being prescribed osteoporosis medication. Secondary fracture prevention, using Fracture Liaison Services, can be used to increase the rates of fracture risk assessment, BMD testing and use of osteoporosis medication in order to reduce fracture numbers. Additionally, established primary prevention strategies, based on case-finding methods utilizing fracture prediction tools, such as FRAX, to identify women without fracture but with elevated risk, are recommended in order to further reduce fracture numbers.
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43.
  • Lu, T. Y., et al. (författare)
  • Improved prediction of fracture risk leveraging a genome-wide polygenic risk score
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Genome Medicine. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1756-994X. ; 13:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Accurately quantifying the risk of osteoporotic fracture is important for directing appropriate clinical interventions. While skeletal measures such as heel quantitative speed of sound (SOS) and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry bone mineral density are able to predict the risk of osteoporotic fracture, the utility of such measurements is subject to the availability of equipment and human resources. Using data from 341,449 individuals of white British ancestry, we previously developed a genome-wide polygenic risk score (PRS), called gSOS, that captured 25.0% of the total variance in SOS. Here, we test whether gSOS can improve fracture risk prediction. Methods We examined the predictive power of gSOS in five genome-wide genotyped cohorts, including 90,172 individuals of European ancestry and 25,034 individuals of Asian ancestry. We calculated gSOS for each individual and tested for the association between gSOS and incident major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture. We tested whether adding gSOS to the risk prediction models had added value over models using other commonly used clinical risk factors. Results A standard deviation decrease in gSOS was associated with an increased odds of incident major osteoporotic fracture in populations of European ancestry, with odds ratios ranging from 1.35 to 1.46 in four cohorts. It was also associated with a 1.26-fold (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13-1.41) increased odds of incident major osteoporotic fracture in the Asian population. We demonstrated that gSOS was more predictive of incident major osteoporotic fracture (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) = 0.734; 95% CI 0.727-0.740) and incident hip fracture (AUROC = 0.798; 95% CI 0.791-0.805) than most traditional clinical risk factors, including prior fracture, use of corticosteroids, rheumatoid arthritis, and smoking. We also showed that adding gSOS to the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) could refine the risk prediction with a positive net reclassification index ranging from 0.024 to 0.072. Conclusions We generated and validated a PRS for SOS which was associated with the risk of fracture. This score was more strongly associated with the risk of fracture than many clinical risk factors and provided an improvement in risk prediction. gSOS should be explored as a tool to improve risk stratification to identify individuals at high risk of fracture.
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44.
  • McCloskey, E. V., et al. (författare)
  • Fracture risk assessment by the FRAX model
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Climacteric. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1369-7137 .- 1473-0804. ; 25:1, s. 22-28
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The introduction of the FRAX algorithms has facilitated the assessment of fracture risk on the basis of fracture probability. FRAX integrates the influence of several well-validated risk factors for fracture with or without the use of bone mineral density. Since age-specific rates of fracture and death differ across the world, FRAX models are calibrated with regard to the epidemiology of hip fracture (preferably from national sources) and mortality (usually United Nations sources). Models are currently available for 73 nations or territories covering more than 80% of the world population. FRAX has been incorporated into more than 80 guidelines worldwide, although the nature of this application has been heterogeneous. The limitations of FRAX have been extensively reviewed. Arithmetic procedures have been proposed in order to address some of these limitations, which can be applied to conventional FRAX estimates to accommodate knowledge of dose exposure to glucocorticoids, concurrent data on lumbar spine bone mineral density, information on trabecular bone score, hip axis length, falls history, type 2 diabetes, immigration status and recency of prior fracture.
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45.
  • McCloskey, E. V., et al. (författare)
  • Global impact of COVID-19 on non-communicable disease management: descriptive analysis of access to FRAX fracture risk online tool for prevention of osteoporotic fractures
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Osteoporosis International. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0937-941X .- 1433-2965. ; 32, s. 39-46
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The COVID-19 pandemic, and its management, is markedly impacting the management of osteoporosis as judged by access to online FRAX fracture risk assessments. Globally, access was 58% lower in April than in February 2020. Strategies to improve osteoporosis care, with greater use of fracture risk assessments, offer a partial solution. Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic is having a significant detrimental impact on the management of chronic diseases including osteoporosis. We have quantified the global impact by examining changes in the usage of online FRAX fracture risk assessments before and after the declaration of the pandemic (11 March 2020). Methods The study comprised a retrospective analysis using GoogleAnalytics data on daily sessions on the FRAX (R) website (www.sheffield.ac.uk/FRAX) from November 2019 to April 2020 (main analysis period February-April 2020), and the geographical source of that activity. Results Over February-April 2020, the FRAX website recorded 460,495 sessions from 184 countries, with 210,656 sessions in February alone. In March and April, the number of sessions fell by 23.1% and 58.3% respectively, a pattern not observed over the same period in 2019. There were smaller reductions in Asia than elsewhere, partly related to earlier and less-marked nadirs in some countries (China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea and Vietnam). In Europe, the majority of countries (24/31, 77.4%) reduced usage by at least 50% in April. Seven countries showed smaller reductions (range - 2.85 to - 44.1%) including Poland, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Germany, Norway, Sweden and Finland. There was no significant relationship between the reduction in FRAX usage and measures of disease burden such as COVID-attributed deaths per million of the population. Conclusion This study documents a marked global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the management of osteoporosis as reflected by FRAX online fracture risk assessments. The analysis suggests that impact may relate to the societal and healthcare measures taken to ameliorate the pandemic.
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46.
  • McCloskey, E. V., et al. (författare)
  • Romosozumab efficacy on fracture outcomes is greater in patients at high baseline fracture risk: a post hoc analysis of the first year of the frame study
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Osteoporosis International. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0937-941X .- 1433-2965. ; 32, s. 1601-1608
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • This study aimed to determine the interaction between baseline FRAX(R) fracture probability and romosozumab efficacy. Using an ITT approach, it was determined that the efficacy of romosozumab on clinical fracture, osteoporotic fracture, and major osteoporotic fracture is significantly greater in patients at high baseline fracture risk, when compared with placebo. Introduction Post hoc analyses of placebo-controlled osteoporosis treatment studies have shown significantly greater reductions of fracture incidence for higher fracture risk patients. This study determined the interaction between baseline FRAX(R) fracture probability and romosozumab efficacy in the placebo-controlled first year of the phase 3 FRAME study (NCT01575834). Methods Using an ITT approach, an extension of Poisson regression analysis studied the relationship between treatment, FRAX(R) 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF, calculated without BMD) and risk of first incident fracture (adjusting for age and follow-up time). Treatment interactions considered outcomes of all clinical fractures, osteoporotic fractures, MOF, clinical vertebral fractures, and morphometric vertebral fractures. Two-sided p value of < 0.1 for the interaction between treatment and FRAX(R) was considered significant. Results Compared with placebo, romosozumab reduced the incidence of all fracture outcomes in the first year (range: 32% reduction in MOF [p = 0.07] to 80% reduction in clinical vertebral fractures [p = 0.038]). Significant interactions were observed between efficacy and baseline FRAX(R) probability for composite outcomes of clinical fractures, osteoporotic fractures, and MOF (p = 0.064-0.084), but not vertebral fractures (p > 0.3). For example, romosozumab decreased all clinical fractures by 22% at the 25th centile of FRAX(R) probability but the reduction was 41% at the 75th centile. Exclusion of vertebral fractures from each composite fracture outcome (i.e. only nonvertebral fractures included) showed even stronger interactions with baseline FRAX(R) probability (p = 0.036-0.046). Conclusions Efficacy of romosozumab on clinical fracture, osteoporotic fracture, and MOF is significantly greater in patients at high baseline fracture risk compared with placebo.
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47.
  • McCloskey, E V, et al. (författare)
  • Ten-year fracture probability identifies women who will benefit from clodronate therapy--additional results from a double-blind, placebo-controlled randomised study
  • 2009
  • Ingår i: Osteoporosis International. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0937-941X .- 1433-2965. ; 20:5, s. 811-7
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Fracture risk prediction can be enhanced by the concurrent assessment of other clinical risk factors. This study demonstrates that the estimation of an individual's 10-year probability of fracture by the FRAX algorithm identifies patients at high risk of fracture who will respond to bisphosphonate therapy. INTRODUCTION: Treatments for osteoporosis are targeted largely to patients with low bone density (BMD) or a prior fragility fracture. Fracture risk prediction can be enhanced by the concurrent assessment of other clinical risk factors, but it is important to determine whether the risk so identified can be reduced by intervention. We determined the effect of a bisphosphonate on fracture rates when risk was calculated using a new risk algorithm (FRAX). METHODS: Women aged 75 years or more were recruited to a randomised, double-blind controlled trial of 800 mg oral clodronate (Bonefos) daily over 3 years. Baseline clinical risk factors were entered in the FRAX model to compute the 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures with or without input of femoral neck BMD. The interaction between fracture probability and treatment efficacy was examined by Poisson regression. RESULTS: In 3,974 women, the interaction between fracture probability and treatment efficacy was significant when probability was assessed without BMD (p = 0.043), but not when BMD was included (p = 0.10). Efficacy was more evident in those deemed at highest risk. For example women lying at the 75th percentile of fracture probability in the absence of BMD (10-year probability 24%) treatment reduced fracture risk by 27% (HR 0.73, 95%CI 0.58-0.92). In those with a fracture probability of 30% (90th percentile), the fracture risk reduction was 38% (HR 0.62, 0.46-0.84). CONCLUSIONS: The estimation of an individual's 10-year probability of fracture by the FRAX algorithm identifies patients at high risk of fracture who will respond to bisphosphonate therapy.
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48.
  • Naureen, G., et al. (författare)
  • A surrogate FRAX model for Pakistan
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Archives of Osteoporosis. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1862-3522 .- 1862-3514. ; 16:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Summary: A surrogate FRAX® model for Pakistan has been constructed using age-specific hip fracture rates for Indians living in Singapore and age-specific mortality rates from Pakistan. Introduction: FRAX models are frequently requested for countries with little or no data on the incidence of hip fracture. In such circumstances, the International Society for Clinical Densitometry and International Osteoporosis Foundation have recommended the development of a surrogate FRAX model, based on country-specific mortality data but using fracture data from a country, usually within the region, where fracture rates are considered to be representative of the index country. Objective: This paper describes the development and characteristics of a surrogate FRAX model for Pakistan. Methods: The FRAX model used the ethnic-specific incidence of hip fracture in Indian men and women living in Singapore, combined with the death risk for Pakistan. Results: The surrogate model gave somewhat lower 10-year fracture probabilities for men and women at all ages compared to the model for Indians from Singapore, reflecting a higher mortality risk in Pakistan. There were very close correlations in fracture probabilities between the surrogate and authentic models (r ≥ 0.998) so that the use of the Pakistan model had little impact on the rank order of risk. It was estimated that 36,524 hip fractures arose in 2015 in individuals over the age of 50 years in Pakistan, with a predicted increase by 214% to 114,820 in 2050. Conclusion: The surrogate FRAX model for Pakistan provides an opportunity to determine fracture probability within the Pakistan population and help guide decisions about treatment. © 2021, The Author(s).
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49.
  • Povoroznyuk, V., et al. (författare)
  • FRAX-Based Intervention Thresholds for Osteoporosis Treatment in Ukraine
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Journal of Osteoporosis. - : Hindawi Limited. - 2090-8059 .- 2042-0064. ; 2021
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objectives. Osteoporosis, in addition to its consequent fracture burden, is a common and costly condition. FRAX(R) is a well-established, validated, web-based tool which calculates the 10-year probability of fragility fractures. A FRAX model for Ukraine has been available since 2016 but its output has not yet been translated into intervention thresholds for the treatment of osteoporosis in Ukraine; we aimed to address this unmet need in this analysis. Methods. In a referral population sample of 3790 Ukrainian women, 10-year probabilities of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) and hip fracture separately were calculated using the Ukrainian FRAX model, with and without femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD). We used a similar approach to that first proposed by the UK National Osteoporosis Guideline Group, whereby treatment is indicated if the probability equals or exceeds that of a woman of the same age with a prior fracture. Results. The MOF intervention threshold in females (the age-specific 10-year fracture probability) increased with age from 5.5% at the age of 40 years to 11% at the age of 75 years where it plateaued and then decreased slightly at age 90 (10%). Lower and upper thresholds were also defined to determine the need for BMD, if not already measured; the approach targets BMD measurements to those at or near the intervention threshold. The proportion of the referral populations eligible for treatment, based on prior fracture or similar or greater probability, ranged from 44% to 69% depending on age. The prevalence of the previous fracture rose with age, as did the proportion eligible for treatment. In contrast, the requirement for BMD testing decreased with age. Conclusions. The present study describes the development and application of FRAX-based assessment guidelines in Ukraine. The thresholds can be used in the presence or absence of access to BMD and optimize the use of BMD where access is restricted.
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50.
  • Saleh, Y. A. L., et al. (författare)
  • Incidence of hip fracture in Saudi Arabia and the development of a FRAX model
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Archives of Osteoporosis. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1862-3522 .- 1862-3514. ; 17:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • A prospective hospital-based survey in representative regions of Saudi Arabia determined the incidence of fractures at the hip. The hip fracture rates were used to create a FRAX (R) model to facilitate fracture risk assessment in Saudi Arabia. Objective This paper describes the incidence of hip fracture in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia that was used to characterize the current and future burden of hip fracture, to develop a country-specific FRAX (R) tool for fracture prediction and to compare fracture probabilities with neighbouring countries. Methods During a 2-year (2017/2018) prospective survey in 15 hospitals with a defined catchment population, hip fractures in Saudi citizens were prospectively identified from hospital registers. The number of hip fractures and future burden was determined from national demography. Age- and sex-specific incidence of hip fracture and national mortality rates were incorporated into a FRAX model for Saudi Arabia. Fracture probabilities were compared with those from Kuwait and Abu Dhabi. Results The incidence of hip fracture applied nationally suggested that the estimated number of hip fractures nationwide in persons over the age of 50 years for 2015 was 2,949 and is predicted to increase nearly sevenfold to 20,328 in 2050. Hip fracture rates were comparable with estimates from Abu Dhabi and Kuwait. By contrast, probabilities of a major osteoporotic fracture or hip fracture from the age of 70 years were much lower than those seen in Abu Dhabi and Kuwait due to higher mortality estimates for Saudi Arabia. Conclusion A country-specific FRAX tool for fracture prediction has been developed for Saudi Arabia which is expected to help guide decisions about treatment.
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